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Friday, June 19, 2009


Obsession with Taylor:

Its not like hes in single A, plenty of Major Leaguers made the jump from double A.

This team is going through their spell during interleague play as they always do. Last year this team was 4-11 in interleague play. So far this year we are 3-6. With 9 games left, I will be thrilled with a 5-4 figuring this team seems to take these weeks off each year.

There are two things you can almost set your watch to each season. 1.) A slow April start and 2.) A subpar interleague play schedule.

With all that said, I am excited to see how Bastardo pitches tonight.

ZT: But the guy didn't have thats good of a year last year. So what is to say this numbers aren't just a first half fluke?

Majors leaguers have made the jump, but after several years of putting up his numbers. Not just 1 half. PLUS, he is getting a little old. 24 years old I believe.

The idea of promoting Taylor because of Ibanez's injury is really a stretch. The solution is to platoon Mayberry/Stairs/Dobbs for the next 2-3 weeks as need with Mayberry starting vs. LHP in RF and Stairs/Dobbs starting vs. RHP in LF.

If you limit Mayberry exposure to RHP who generally are fastball-heavy, I am willing to bet he would be a credible offensive option with an OPS in the .750 or so range. Not real Ibanez but a defensive upgrade for sure who runs better too.

Just came back from vacation in mexico ...god i missed BLer... nice article JW... all good valid points!


Last year (his second year in pro ball) Taylor hit .346/.412/.557; 19HR, 88RBI; 15SB; 55BB; 89K in 132 games between Lakewood and Clearwater. I'd say last season was pretty good.

Stats from Lakewood from last year:
AVG:.361 OBP:.441 SLG:.554 OPS:995

Let's all calm down. I think Phillies will right it and be fine. Like someone said in the comments before, you can't get hung up on every game or you will go insane. And look, the Nats just took 2 of 3 from the Yankees and the O's took 2 of 3 from the Mets. Everyone struggles.

mvptommy: He hit .346/.412/.557 between two leagues last year. So yeah, he did have that good of a year last year. You have no clue what you'e talking about. And he's 23, not 24.

You don't like Taylor, yet you're excited to see Bastardo's start tonight? You realize Taylor is considered a much better prospect than Bastardo by almost every expert?

MG: You are right on. I personally love Mayberry. He has turned into a player similar player to Howard. In the sense that if you put him against a certain type of pitcher he is sure to go yard. As I have said since the guy was traded here and I made a big hooplah about him, let's give him some AB's and see what we got here.

you LOVE Mayberry, but tell us not to get excited about Taylor?

I do like Mayberry ad 4th OF.

Its funny that everyone is harping endlessly on the Scutaro play which yeah was a real mental gaffe but you also have to give Scutaro real credit for being hyperaggressive there too. Takes a veteran like Scutaro to make that play work.

Overlooked though and probably more important was the backbreaking error by Feliz which really was a tailor-made DP in the 8th. Instead of a 5-5 game going into the bottom of the 8th with the DP, it was 7-5 instead.

Here we got everyone jump on me about Taylor. All I am saying is 23 or 24 in December, he played in Lakewood, Clearwater and Reading. Not exactly Stellar competition.

Case in point, Mike Cervanek had 3 years in his minor league career in which he batted above .300 and you see how his career turned out. So please everyone relax.

From the last thread... Clout, you throw out a completely false statement and attribute it to me. Nobody on this entire board ever said that Bastardo was better than Tommy Hanson. I'm not even a big Bastardo fan and you spend enough time oon this blog to know that.
I get it. I've gone back and quoted some of your stupid comments of the past year to show that you are'nt as smart as you think you are, so you need to try to discredit. Try not being a liar. It is very unbecoming of a 50 year old man. You are such a child.

Bed beard: Yes, because his averages are less than Taylors but Mayberry is a power hitter, who has given his minor league teams HR's and RBI's.

mvp: You're the single dumbest poster on here. Congrats.

Mayberry also hit .250 in every level. I think chances are he'll do worse in the majors.

Tommy: I know you don't like stats, but we do know what we have here with Mayberry. You do realize that Mayberry has a .255 average, a .331 OBP, and a slugging pct. well below .500 in nearly 2000 minor league ABs? And you do realize that in this his supposed "breakout" year, his AAA numbers were almost exactly in line with those career numbers? Not to mention that he has a staggering 31% strikeout rate to go with a low walk rate.

I like Mayberry as a guy who can pinch hit, make a few starts, and maybe have an occasional hot streak where you'd want to play him more. And it's possible he could eventually be a late bloomer and turn into something more. But there is certainly nothing to "LOVE" about him right now. There may be good reason for calling up Mayberry instead of Taylor but I would bet almost anything that, if you gave each of them 400 major league PAs this season, Taylor would have the far better numbers.

Jack: Ok, we will se in 5 Years when Taylor isn't in this Phillies Organization and playing somewhere else being average I.E. Michael Bourne. You can not call me "dumb" now, just because he is "tearing up" AA.

By the way the OF of the next 5 years will be Mayberry, Vic and Werth.

BAP and Jack: Everyone has there opinions and that is mine. I do not think you can conclude a person's MLB career on his minor league numbers. This is where my eyes come in. I think Mayberry will be an everyday player in this league in the enxt 2 years. But to call me dumb now, is ery immature and foolish on your part.

This is starting to remind me of the "Ibanez Debate" days, just saying......

John Mayberry's career minor league slugging pct.: .472

Michael Taylor's career minor league slugging pct.: .511.

John Mayberry's 2009 AAA slugging pct.: .470

Michael Taylor's 2009 slugging percentages: .562

John Mayberry's 2008 homerun totals: 20
Michael Taylor's 2008 homerun totals: 19

John Mayberry's 2009 homerun totals: 10
Michael Taylor's 2009 homerun totals: 10

John Mayberry's physical dimensions: 6'5", 230 pounds

Michael Taylor's physical dimensions: 6'6," 250 pounds.

Uh ohhh, I see BAP, Jack, Clout and ZT's computers starting to smoke, from all the stat research they are doing now.

Good job BAP, I knew you were crunching stats for me. One MAJOR difference in those numbers. Mayberry has ACTUALLY played AAA ball.

mvp is the dumbest? damn, i thought i was the dumbest. i'll never get into the BL Elite at this rate.


Yes, silly old BAP, clout, Jack, and ZT. Can you believe anyone would actually do research before declaring someone a great player? Don't they know you can just look at Mayberry and see that he's a great ball player?

I too love the prospects of Taylor but I don't see the Phils bringing him up now. After all they just brought Mayberry back. Beisdes as we all know pitchingis the issue. If anything I would aggressively promote some of our pitching prospects just to see what they can do. Bastardo seems to mea one pitch wonder that is better suited to the pen. But I would take a chnace on Carrasco an what is wrong with checking out Drabek and Savery. You think its too early ? I think its a little late for Moyer.


I added the "(his second year of pro ball)" to my post because you brought up the age thing. He's 23 in AA. It's not like he's been in the minors since he was 18 and it took him 5 years to get to AA. He started at 21 and jumped from low A to high A in his age 22 season. He's excelling at the level he is put. What else do you want?

Once again, this isn't fantasy baseball where only stats matter. Taylor has better stats then Mayberry, great. Mayberry has played AAA ball, is like Howard that he hits for power NOT average AND he has developed into a good OFer with a good arm.

R. Bills: I want to know why everyone is only bringing up Averages, when that is not Mayberry's strength. Much like Howard. Look at HR, RBI's, 2B's...You know the things that actually want out of him

Fact is, the level of play at AAA isn't that much higher than at AA. The real jump is from A to AA. But, if we must, here are Mayberry's stats over parts of 2 seasons at AA:

351 PAs, .248 batting average, .299 OBP, 18 homeruns, 83 strikeouts, 24 walks.

You're right Tommy. Everyone has their opinion. It's just that most of us like to base those opinions on actual facts, whereas you just find facts to be a distraction. Based on absolutely nothing at all, you've decided that Mayberry is some kind of great prospect & Taylor isn't. You're entitled to believe this but the facts completely refute your opinion.

Riddle me this Elite: If Taylor supposely is soo much better and such a great prospect then why didn't Amaro bring him up instead of Mayberry?

In BLer Eyes: Taylor > Mayberry, so now is Amaro a fool? Or maybe just maybe he sees something you all don't.

Also, Tommy, Mayberry was also 24 in AA and hit .268/.322/.512 -- so why do you think that Mayberry will be better than Taylor?

I'm not saying that Taylor should be brought up right now. In fact, MG pointed out that "The idea of promoting Taylor because of Ibanez's injury is really a stretch," to which I don't think anyone disagreed. But to not get excited about a prospect in our system is very strange, to say the least.

Wow, MVPTommy just compared Taylor to Michael Bourn and Mayberry to Howard. I think it might be time to admit that you know absolutely nothing about Taylor and spoke before doing any research. Besides the fact that it is somehow a credit to Mayberry in your mind that he does not hit for a high average because that makes him more like Howard.

I like Mayberry as a role player who might be able to make a solid major league career for himself, but Taylor's potential absolutely dwarfs Mayberry's.

Howard never hit below .270 in the minors.

"If Taylor supposely is soo much better and such a great prospect then why didn't Amaro bring him up instead of Mayberry?"

My thoughts are as follows:

1. As you stated, Mayberry has had some ABs in AAA. But, it doesn't mean that he's a better prospect.

2. They already started the clock on Mayberry.

Why am I getting involved in this? Back to work I go.

I don't have tommy's eyes - I've only seen a handful of at bats and innings for Mayberry and none for Taylor. Mayberry's Ks are a huge red flag but, I think from what I see he has the physical tools to succeed in the league. STill, I don't think his ceiling is Howard. Probably more Mark Whiten, which would be okay. The reason he is in MLB now, not AAA, is obvious. He's been in the minors for years, physically mature and should be mentally, too. Sink or swim time.

"Ok, we will see in 5 Years."

I can only imagine how that debate will play out in 5 years:

MVPTommy: Ha ha. Remember 5 years ago when I told you Mayberry would be a better player than Taylor, and you all called me stupid? Well I'm here to gloat because you all look pretty silly now.

Jack/clout/BAP, et al.: What are you talking about Tommy? Taylor batted .305 last year with 23 homeruns and a .502 slugging percentage. Mayberry hit .237 with 14 homeruns, and a .458 slugging percentage as a part-time outfielder with the Royals.

MVPTommy: Oh, here they go citing stats. I trust my eyes and there's no doubt Mayberry is the better player.

(Alright, time to get to work . . .)

mvp - I don't get you at times. Taylor is a potential Triple Crown threat this year at AA in a league that generally has been decent pitching and you just dismiss this outright? Yet you have a man crush on Mayberry and act like he is some kind of bonafide diamond in the rough star?

Mayberry likely can contribute (and I still don't understand how Bako is stealing a paycheck and a daily meal allowance right now on this roster) to this team at the MLB level if used properly and Taylor likely would take some real lumps if he was called up right now but you take such extreme viewpoints it is hard to take you seriously.

Exactly, this is a debate to nowehere. Taylor we have to give some years before eithier side is right.

As usual on BLer if you argue on the wrong side of the ledger, you are an idiot. But if you prove the "stat guys" wrong I.E. Ibanez, Ruiz others then the "Sample size isn't large enough" typical BLer day.

I am done with Taylor, in 5 years we will reopen the debate and see who is right.

BAP: you your right, thats how it will go ::sarcasm::

Just to prepare for the Mayberry/Taylor debate of 2014.

I think Taylor is going to be a stud. Mayberry will be a serviceable 4th outfielder-type.

Some days I come to BL and get some great information and logical debate. Some days I come here and chuckle to myself. There is usually a direct correlation with whoever is the dominant poster for the thread...I've laughed out loud 3 times already for this one, so thanks for that mvptommyd...

You're not an idiot because of your opinion, but you are because of the facts you tout out to support it. Like how Mayberry hitting for a low avg is ok because Howard did, but Howard never hit below .270. You said Taylor was old for his level, when Mayberry was even older for his.

Ok, well it looks like EVERYONE(R.Bills, BAP, Jack, MG, ZT) will think Taylor is going to be a "STUD" except me. I think he will be OK, not Great but decent in the Major leagues.

I think Mayberry has more MLB potential, even if it is in the AL as a DH.

Now MVP has Mayberry as a dh. Ten minutes ago he was a good outfielder with a good arm.

I just spit some of my drink out my nose...

All I know is thus far I have been right about Ibanez, Ruiz ( whether he is a servicable everyday catch, also whether he can work on his offense), Madson ( Whether he can step in and be a more productive closer than Lidge), Feliz(being overall a good 3rd baseman both offense and defense included)

Wrong about: Park and the bench being ok

I have to say my heavily weighted non-stat observations have been pretty good thus far....

If MVPTommy is any older than 14, than I feel really sorry for him. Even for 14, he's pushing it with his child-like ramblings. Can we please just ignore him, he shouldn't be setting the tone for an otherwise reasoned discussion.

donc: No, I said he can fit into both leagues as an outfielder or a DH.

High Hopes: Oh I am sorry, back to stat crunching you go. You are also probably one of the guys that go to the Reading Phillies games to drool over every guy that is hitting over .300 in the hopes of having a signed baseball that is worth money someday when the guy "makes it big".

To say the Phillies called up Mayberry "over" Taylor based on your own speculative conclusion that they then must feel Mayberry is a better player than Taylor is pretty specious reasoning, mvptommyd.

Mayberry is on the 40-man roster, Taylor is not. Making a move to bring up Taylor would require removing someone from the 40-man. I'd have to do some research in regards to the Phillies current 40-man roster to see who has options, but you may have to burn an option to get Taylor on the roster, and that may be undesirable. Additionally, someone may not have options, which would require a player to clear waivers for Taylor to get on, which also might not be a good thing.

Furthermore, Mayberry was drafted in '05 and Taylor in '07. Mayberry is nearing the end of his rope in terms of time before he has to be placed on the 40-man roster in order to avoid the Rule 5 draft. It would appear the Phillies might be more inclined to figure out what they have with Mayberry now so that they can better make a decision on whether to protect him later.

And, finally, you don't want to start Taylor's MLB service time clock too early and cause him to go Super Two or reach his free agent years before his production peak.

So, while you're opinions make for good arguments and you're certainly entitled to be confident in them, there's a ton more thought going into managing a baseball team than you're leading on with your opinions on Mayberry over Taylor.

Since you all love stats I am going to play a game of "Where are they now!"

1997: Stud Daniel Held batted .272/.345/495, 26 HR, 86 RBI

1999: Andy Stewart batted .300/.369/.511

2001: Marlon Byrd batted .316/386/.555 28 HR, 89 RBI's

And my Favorite!!!!!

2003: Jeff Inglin batted .284/.346/.471 24 HR's, 103 RBI's

Where did there careers go? Based on stats these guys are overall good, what in the world happened?????

I think we can all agree that the Mayberry for Golson deal was a good one; at least we don't have Golson or a Chris Roberson-esque guy out there right now.

Yes, Tommy, you have definitely been proven right on whether Madson can be a more productive closer than Lidge. 3 save opportunities says it all -- especially when one of those opportunities resulted in a blown save (on a couple of cheat hits), and when he has an astronomical ERA of 3.00 since becoming closer. Lidge has only 6 blown saves in 19 opportunities and, while he has an ERA over 7, well, that's just a stupid statistic and my eyes tell me it isn't valid. Yes, the case has definitively been made. Madson can't close and Lidge can.

Speaking of big right-handed hitting prospects: The Padres promoted Kyle Blanks. Noteworthy here because he's a local guy, from nearby Sellersville.

I watching him play two weeks ago in Portland. Aside from being this mountain of a human being (6-6, 285), what struck me was his speed. He's unbelievably quick down the line. Huge, huge, hacker.

6'6", 285# and fast down the line? Sounds like he should play tight end.

BAP: Yea true the sample size isn't good enough. But even you have to admit, Madson pitches differently when he is closing.

mvp..five years my rear end..Taylor will be in the majors next year whether its with the phils or someone else, god forbid. Hopefully Amaro sees the light and doesnt include him in a deal..dont forget, Taylor will be a cheaper alternative to the stoner, werth and we hit for avg and power. Your luv for Mayberry should be as a 4th of and right handed bat off the bench instead of the worst player in majors, the Gnome..

Dick allan: LOL, Werth, your right him and Vic's post game stress releiver. 5 yrs to judge him, not 5 years until he is here. Your right, next year by the ASB he will be here. But still think Taylor is being a tad overvalued.

Good point, king myno.

Taylor >>>> Maybery >> Golson/Roberson


Daniel Held: You posted stats from his 1997 year as a 26 year old playing his second full year at AA, his fourth full season overall. Michael Taylor is currently 23 and in his second full season as a professional baseball player. So, Taylor and Held are worlds apart.

Andy Stewart: He was minor league filler in his 4th run through in AA. He was 28 years old in the 1999 season.

Marlon Byrd: This is actually the most comparable case to Taylor which you've cited. But, Marlon has had a decent 8 year run as a major leaguer, which answers your question of where are they now. His numbers make him a good tool at the MLB level. Maybe he didn't hit his potential ceiling as a prospect, but that's the game of prospects.

Jeff Inglin: In 2003, he was 27 and on his third full season of AA.

So, in three of four of the cases you've cited, it appears that your argument actually shows how special Taylor's emergence has been, rather than puts his minor league career in doubt.

Hydrant: I am not comparing them to Taylor. I am saying that they were good by the "numbers" but turned out to be nobodies.

Again, so everyone doesn't get on me. NOT comparing those guys to Taylor. Comparing their "potential" and "how others perceived them" to show that you can not go all by numbers as many of you are, as to why Taylor will be a "Stud" major leaguer.

One thing about me is that I drive up the posts on this board because of my strong opinion about certain things. Basically there are 3 things I do or don't do:

1.) Don't slurp over ANY prospects because more often than not then turn up as stiffs.

2.) Don't judge players soley on stats (as you know)

3.) Believe that in the end, the organization knows what's best for the club. And will spend up to it capacity to put the best team on the field.

- Could we use a RH bat, sure
- Could we use a #2, sure

But we have to be smart here, see what the payroll is at. Almost $140 million. (30% increase from last year)

In the end I believe we get a #2/#3 starter at the trade deadline.

mvp - No one is saving Taylor will be a star at the MLB level. Hell, he may be a bust but you are like an old crotchy man who just keeps bringing up the facts ad nauseam (Ibanez is awesome) and random (often arbitrary) facts to support his positions even if there are huge inconsistencies in them or they really don't apply.

MG:WHAAAAT! The past hour, all people are saying is that he WILL be a "stud" I believe the word was.

But Hydrant's point is that, except for Byrd, they were NOT good by the numbers. Age is critical when evaluating a prospect's potential. The reason Michael Taylor is a terrific prospect and Mike Cervenak is not is because Taylor is 23, playing his first season at AA, and Cervenak is 32 and has repeated AAA numerous times. His statistical line looks pretty good, but the more important number is his age.

BAP: I am done arguing over prospects, we will see. You know where I stand, Taylor Good NOT great. Mayberry more productive than Taylor, end of story.

Tommy: To be fair, I was the only one who used "stud." I stand by that. I thought the debate was whether Mayberry or Taylor will have a better MLB career. Is that not correct?

"1.) Don't slurp over ANY prospects"


RBill: Correct that was the debate. You used "stud" and everyone seemed to me agreed. So that is that.

Tommy, you still don't seem to get it. Numbers are only useful in a context with which to compare them. There is a vast history of minor leaguers that can be used to draw meaningful (but not bullet-proof) conclusions when comparing to current players. The raw numbers (BA, OPS, etc.) are only meaningful when taken within a correct context. For minor league players, the important contextual relevancies are: level within the organization, age of prospect overall and in comparison to the majority of other players at that level, and ability of a prospect to repeat similarly good numbers over multiple levels. By looking at Taylor's raw numbers at his varying levels over his short minor league progression, based on his age level at those levels, one could draw a meaningful conclusion that he will be an above average major leaguer at the minimum.

Unikruk: It's true. Now Ibanez, I slurp. I have a full fledged man-crush on the guy fom day 1.

Who agreed with me? I reread the posts and didn't see anyone agree with my proclamation that Taylor will be a "stud." I just wanted there to be no gray area when we revisit this debate in 5 years.

But, for the sake of the board, I will humbly concede to your baseball intellect. (read: I really should get back to work)

Anon: I get it and based on exactly what you said I disagree, thats all. I do not think you can compared Johnny from Boondocks, TN pitching to Taylor in AA, compared to Johan Santana pitching to Taylor. I don't care what the minor league numbers say, the MLB is WHOLE different beast.

Does anyone know if there is any website that does "comparables" for minor leaguers...for instance, the major leaguers who put up the closest numbers in the minors to what Taylor is doing?

Apparently you don't like Ibanez enough to see him finishing out his contract here: "By the way the OF of the next 5 years will be Mayberry, Vic and Werth. "

"You are right on. I personally love Mayberry. He has turned into a player similar player to Howard." <--Slurpslurpslurp

The Phils have been complete crap during this 6 game homestand, but yet amazingly are still in 1st.

Bad things about 6 game homestand:
*Raul Ibanez and Scott Eyre have hit the DL.

*Clay Condrey has completely fallen apart (7 runs, 6 earned in his last .1 innings pitched).

*The Phillies have committed 7 errors.

*The Phillies have struckout 68 times.

*The Phillies have walked 41 batters.

*Scott Rolen, Rod Barajas, and JD Drew have combined to go 11-29 (.379) with 5 walks, 6 runs, 9 rbi, and 4 homeruns.

mvp - Is Boonsville, TN near Hicktown or Redneckville?

"Madson can't close and Lidge can"

I will never understand the thinking behind statements such as these. "Closer" is not a position. It's artificial. Anyone who can get through three major league batters without giving up a run on a semi-consistent basis can close. Anyone.

I agree 100% with Carlton that use of a closer for the sake of using a closer is senseless and costs ballgames. If your 8th inning reliever is sharp and doesn't throw a lot of pitches, there is absolutely zero reason to replace him immediately the following inning.

As for Taylor/Mayberry, I think it's pretty clear that Taylor has the higher ceiling, but once again, teams are managed with the future in mind, not just the present. Unless one of our starting outfielders gets hurt and is out for the season or gets moved in a trade, there is no need to start Taylor's service clock and disrupt his progression. Promoting Mayberry was the smart decision to make at this time.

mvp: It's not that you're on the wrong side of the argument. It's that you act so ridiculous in your assertions and dismiss all stats. You also ignore the fact that Taylor has a much higher ceiling than Mayberry and dismiss him because he "hits for average." Do you actually think about what you type? But to play your game here are career minor league numbers for the 2.

Keep in mind that Mayberry has played 5 seasons in the minors, and Taylor has played 3.

Mayberry has 90 home runs, 288 RBI's, 118 2B, 13 3B, 45 stolen bases, and an avg/obp/slg/ops line of .255/.331/.472/803.

Taylor has 35 home runs, 163 RBI's, 65 2B, 8 3B, 33 stolen bases, and his line reads .314/.381/.571/892.

In the first 5 categories Mayberry's numbers are easily catchable for Taylor. In fact, the projections probably would have him passing some of those numbers. That means you look past that where you see Taylor's average is 60 points higher. His OBP is 50 points higher. His slugging is 100 points higher, and his OPS is 90 points higher.

You can dismiss that, but why is it such a bad thing to have a guy who can hit for power AND average. God forbid the Phillies have a guy in the line-up who could reasonably hit .300, hit 20-30 home runs, drive in 80-100 RBI's, and swipe 10 bases a year. Absolutley no use for a player like that right?

That all being said- of course you call up Mayberry because he is the most major league ready to play. There is no use in stunting Taylor's growth by rushing him to the big leagues and having him sit on the bench a few days a week rather than starting everyday and getting work. It's not a lack of confidence from Ruben, but rather a step in development.

"Scott Rolen, Rod Barajas, and JD Drew have combined"

It makes me think that anytime the Phils dump someone who has stopped performing, or asked for a trade, or stank in general, or just refuses to sign because he has a bloated ego agent, they should have an "exit interview" where they sneak some Andro into his soft drink.

In re: Condrey
We all knew that pitching everyday was going to catch up with him sooner or later. All these starters who didn't make it out of the sixth this year (they know who they are and what their ages are) caused the break down of our bullpen as much as any other factor.

In re: Tommy and Taylor
I disagree with Tommy'sd appraisal of Taylor's skills and long term worth relative to Mayberry. I would back that up with my reasoning, but he would dismiss it as idiotic and elitist, so why bother?

Carson- Add "a pitcher stood on the mound with the ball in his hand and let a Jays batter turn a walk into a double " to your list.

New thread.

Because Michael Taylor is my favorite prospect, I hate to admit that he does remind me of Marlon Byrd. Except for their size of course.

That being said, I can't see how you come to the absolute conclusion that Mayberry is better than Taylor. Batting average and K rates mean something.

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