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Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Comments

MVP: For someone who has spent so much time around the game, it is shocking how many errors there are in your payroll math. I don't know where to start, but I'll do my best.

1st, and most glaring error: Garcia? That was 3 years ago.

2nd error: Per USA Today, the Phillies' 2009 payroll is $113M. Eaton is another $8M. Jenkins is another $6.75M. Thome is $3M. That makes right around $130M, not $140M.

3rd error: There is no ADDITIONAL cost to eating Bruntlett & Bako's contracts. Bruntlett's salary is already on the books regardless whether he stays on the roster or is dumped. And I believe that cutting Bako would actually SAVE money (as to Bako), since he doesn't have a guaranteed contract & is paid on a pro rata basis based on his actual time on the major league roster.

4th error: It ain't gonna cost $8M to add a starting pitcher -- at least not in 2009. By the time a trade is made, the season will be more than half over, which means that we only have to pay 1/2 year's salary or less. There are no $16M pitchers out there who are on the trading block.

5th error: The Phillies have inquired about guys like Oswalt ($14M 2009 salary), Peavy ($11M), and Marquis ($10M), so clearly they're willing to add on a hefty amount of payroll. Since they'll only have to pay a half season's salary for whatever starting pitcher they get, they can clearly afford the additional half season's salary for a utility player &
a right-handed bat.

new thread was needed badly, thanks.

How about making an aggressive move for Cla Meredith or another solid reliever? We certainly have middle level prospects to spare. I think thats the move to make at this point.

per Lauber & Murphy tweets, Howard at 1B and Coste at DH

MVP Tommy D: (From the last thread): I didn't say Amaro made bad/incorrect choices. It's just that his bench is weak and he has to make it stronger. And remember, he's paying Jenkins 8 million not to play. I know they probably made their choices due to their payroll and that's fine. I understand that.

But with Howard and Ibanez out of the lineup, in the series against the O's they had 1 good offensive inning in 3 games. Ouch!

BAP: I agree, they cna afford the #2 pitcher. But they DON'T want to pay for BOTH a pitcher AND new bench, why is this such a hard concept?

What do you guys/gals/tommyds think about Carpenter? Although I didn't really expect it, I thought there was a chance he'd replace Condrey for a few weeks. Last I checked he's been lights out as a starter in LV, since going back. He's had some ups and downs in the minors, but as a major league starter, I have some doubts. On the flip side, he might be good in the reliever role.

Additionally, his hot stats in LV might be coming at the right time:making him a solid trade chip for a 2nd tier starter or reliever, or a decent valued piece in a bigger trade.

Baxter: We don't need a middle reliever. If anything we have too many with Eyre, Park, Condrey, Durbin,Taschner, Romero, Madson, Lidge.

J Roll leads off again.

Tommy: It's a hard concept because there is NO evidence to support your theory.

I'm not sure how you have so thoroughly convinced yourself that the team's payroll can handle Roy Oswalt but not Roy Oswalt and Ryan Spilborghs. It's just so random.

Bed Beard: I like Carpenter, but I am tired of the minor league starters/relievers experiment. I just want Bastardo out of the rotation and maybe take Taschner's spot in the pen. I want Taschner gone and I want a #2 pitcher. Then let's march on to October.

Ahh the sweet chum of a late afternoon post. I have a feeling things will start to even out for our homely Phils on this trip. Look for Bako with a big PH dong tonight. Call me crazy but Bako could really turn some heads in this series. Bako could be exactly what this bunch of knuckle-heads needs to get there junk back in the drivers seat. Moyer is gonna get shelled tonight, sorry Jamie.

Moyer = Automatic Loss

New incite from mvptommyd: Getting a No. 2 pitcher would do more to help the club than bringing up Carpenter to be a long man.

Shocking. Just shocking.

JR: Because Spilborgh's not on the block ! That is why. This isn't fantasy baseball people, you can't just snap your fingers and have players. Colorado is 17-1 in their 18, he is going nowhere.

In my ideal world, if a trade was willing to go down. I would offer marson, donald, Carassco, kendrick and another lower level guy for Eric Byrnes and Dan Haren.

I am telling you all, don't be surprised come August when the only major move is for a starter. Every year, people want a bat, reliever and it never happens. Our bullpen will be fine, our bench will be good enough, we need a #2. If we can get a RH bat, great. If not, oh well.

rossdawg: Where is a lineup posted?

Tony,
Since " losing pitcher" has already been used as a nickname in Phils lore, how bout Jamie "Retire to spend more time with the wife and family" Moyer.

Quick question for anyone who knows...if I live in the Philly area and switch to Direct TV, will the Phillies be blacked out if I purchase the MLB package? If so, does that mean that you can't have Direct TV (or any Sat) and watch the Phillies if you live in the Philly area? I really hate Comcast, and would drop them in a second if I could still watch the Phillies through Direct TV...Fios isn't in my neighborhood yet.

Zolecki tweets it when Cholly turns it in I guess.

Zolecki had this as the lineup:
Tonight's lineup in TB: Rollins SS, Victorino CF, Utley 2B, Howard 1B, Werth RF, Feliz 3B, Mayberry LF, Coste DH, Ruiz C.

Then twittered that Manuel changed his mind and Howard was DH and Coste was 1B. Assuming they're still hitting in the same spots though. This should be interesting.

Well Werth better be in the running mood tonight, because old Costey is going to be a show at 1st if that is true.

No offense to Coste (who swings a nice bat for a backup catcher), but what does Chooch have to do to bat higher than 8th?

Cholly has a mind like a steel bear trap. You know how some managers work the game like chess pieces. Cholly is like an old grizzled hillbilly with a corncob pipe playing checkers outside the general store.

SmokyJoe~

I used to have DirectTV here in Richmond and then had to switch to Comcast due to trees blocking the satelite signal. In either case, most of the time when the Phils games were on the MLB package I did not get the Philly feed, but the opposing team's. And it was the fox feed. If the opposing team did not have a fox feed, the Phils game was not on. I now watch games on the slingbox. Comcast owns the game rights and they do not share them.

ross: I am not sure I get that analogy, but that "old grizzled hillbilly" has a ring.

"I am telling you all, don't be surprised come August when the only major move is for a starter. Every year, people want a bat, reliever and it never happens"

Nobody will be surprised mvp if the Phils get another starter (they have done it 3 years straight with Moyer, Lohse, Blanton) but they have also attempted to pick up a bat in a minor deal in August two of past 3 years including Conine in '06 and Stairs last year.

You know how chess pieces have all different kinds of moves. Checkers does not and you are kind of stuck dealing with some real simple moves. He is kind of stuck with what he's got.

smokyjoe: yes, my dad got DirecTV and MLB Package and they block every phillies game.

MG: Correct, but people here are talking about Spilborghs and guys of that stature. And all I am saying is it won't be anyone that is A.) Expensive or B.) Noteworthy

Listening to Joe Morgan this afternoon on ESPN and there is one thing I agree with him on - "Managers in baseball really is about managing the personality of the players/their egos and the chemistry in the clubhouse. Xs and Os is secondary."

Still it funny then to hear Joe defending Hurdle's firing in Colorado saying that it was because the players hadn't yet really performed by they had a sound clip right after where Barmes says the players didn't perform BUT Tracy has completely changed the dynamic in the clubhouse with some accountability and made a moves on the field that have really helped the club out.

In otherwise, Hurdle was ineffective in the clubhouse and was complete zero in the dugout. Easy the worst tactical manager in the NL since Yost was fired last Sept.

ross: Ahhhh, ok. Well you are 100% correct

mvp - It won't be Spilborghs for three reasons although I would love to see him here. Rockies are right in the thick of the NL Wildcard Race, they desperately need a reason to get fans to continue to come out to the ballpark, and O'Dowd is notorious in his ridiculous trade demands.

I actually agree with you too that Mayberry could be an adequate RHP off the bench and be productive enough on this team if used properly. Still, a bench of Bako, Dobbs, Stairs, Coste, Mayberry, and Bruntlett is limited and the blame does directly lie at Amaro's feet for resigning Bruntlett to a $800k deal even though he is potentially the worst middle utility INF in the NL, his failure to upgrade the backup catcher position by trading away Jamarillo and Paulino with largely nothing to show for it, and his inability to sign a single right-handed bat this offseason which is really kind of pathetic given they were the WS champs.

Maybe Amaro will be a success here but I don't think so. I think has all of the wrong characteristics of an Top-10 MBA grad: standoffish, arrogant, snug, and a toady to upper management.

May or may not be a bright baseball mind although he clearly has some intelligence.

Phils have to find a way to eek out 2 or 3 wins over the next 2 series although it likely will be pretty tough with Lidge, Eyre, and Ibanez.

That said, it is hard to see the Phils winning more than 1 of 3 this series given the pitching matchups and how well the Rays generally have played at home.

Call it a hunch but I think Price struggles with his control tonight and the Phils get to him/force him out of the game by the 6th inning.

Problem is that I think the Rays will do as much damage if not more against Moyer. Frankly, the most important thing about Moyer's start tonight is that he give them 6 innings. They can't afford one of his dud starts where he can't locate/gets bombed & chased by the 4th inning.

I know we're all down on Moyer, but the last time he faced the Rays he gave up 3 runs in 6 1/3 innings pitched en route to a win. I'll take that.

Tommy: makes my head hurt with his lunacy. That last thread was a chore to finish reading through.

For everyone though just remember, scrap the numbers and only focus on whether the player is the son of another major leaguer. Tommy views that as a main factor to anyone being successful.

On this series- Phillies will tkae two of 3 from the Rays. My guess is they beat Sonnanstine and steal one from either Price or Garza. My guess is they win tonight because Garza has been pretty bad lately and is due for a shut down game. That's exactly the type of trap the Phillies like to walk into.

MG, thats the second time I've seen you mention Rube's "MBA-like" personality. What gives - get rejected from GSB?

Also, as far as I know, Ruben got his undergrad in biology from Stanford. Never got his MBA.

Re: Moyer

Its tough to know, before the game even starts, that your banged-up, slumping offense is going to have to score at least five runs to even possibly have a chance of winning. And thats assuming that your banged-up, slumping bullpen can hold the other team scoreless over at least three innings (and probably more than that).

Amaro has no chance here. None. Zip. He's already ruined this team. Every loss the Phil's have endured can be place squarely on his shoulders.

Brian Dawkins got traded because or Ruben Amaro.

5 Eagles losses in the NFC championship game. Yeah Amaro.

The sixers? Amaro.

Steroids in Baseball? Amaro.

Aids? Yeah Ruben Amaro jr.

Nucler Proliferation? Three words: Ruben Amaro Junior

Permian Extinction: Actually, Eric Bruntlett.... By the sadistic and evil orders of Ruben Amaro Jr.

Rex: common cold?

check

In re: Moyer

Y'all are just to tough on him. So what if he got hammered his last time out. His three starts before that were stellar AND we all know he's gone through tough stretches before.

He'll tough it out. If he were a shortstop, why, he'd be "scrappy."

(Of course, since he's not a SS, I guess you have to take out the "s.")

I meant: "take out the "s" and add a "p".

Unless you don't want to.

Phils need to be patient tonight. Price can be eratic and throw a lot of pitches. Here are the innings pitched for his 5 starts this year:

IP (Pitches)
3.1 (100)
5.2 (108)
5.2 (106)
4.1 (105)
7.0 (99) - his last start v. Colorado

His 2009 Strike:Ball ratio is 61:39

Sorry if I missed this somewhere, but has there been a move made to replace Condrey on the roster?

MVP-
did you just call Brad Lidge(and Ryan Madson) a middle reliever? So you think our bullpen is okay? Really? In your opinion we don't just have enough depth, we have too much? So you wouldn't sacrifice a couple low ceiling prospects for a 25 y/o rubber armed RHP with an ERA in the low 2s?

as Clout would say: interesting

Price is beatable. His 1.577 WHIP is slighly worse than Moyer's and slightly better than Chan Ho Park's.

On the Phillies, only Park, Lidge, Taschner, Romero, Kendrick, and Carpenter have a higher WHIP.

This has all the makings of a boring, 8-2 loss

When comparing Price and Moyer, did one of the Rays guys just say hard stuff vs. crap? Or are my ears fooling me?

Being on the road isn't going to help them at all this time. Whether Moyer pitches well or not, and whether the offense hits or not, the bullpen minus Lidge, Eyre, and Condrey is going to need to get 9+ outs. That's a loss.

Well, there's the 2 in the boring 8-2 loss...

sweet jesus on a cross, can we talk about burning down citizens park so the phillies have to play away the rest of the season?

Guess it's a boring 8-3 loss?

Methinks (and methunk last year in the WS) that David Price is a biiiiit over-rated. Usually that happens with NY prospects. How did it happen with a TB prospect?

Patient, smart hitting...

Unbelievable (the offense)! But in a good way finally.

Anyone wanna bet on whether or not David Price ends up as a 250 game winner? Somehow I doubt it happens.

Vrooom, Vrooom, Party Stataaah!!

MAYBERRY!

Uh - you gotta be kiddin' me.

This is nice, eh?

I have uttered the phrase, "This is unbelievable" a lot over the past week while watching the Phillies, and tonight I'm saying it again -- except tonight it's the GOOD, "This is unbelievable."

Tampa Bay Rays, meet your future closer: David Price

I just turned on the Rays broadcast and their guys keep saying how great his stuff looks despite the 6-0 deficit through 2/3 of an inning. Huh?

Mayberry RFD should not spend another second in Death Valley this year.

This is just a different team on the road.

2 things:

1.) As good a pitcher as Price is/will be (and he is/will be) you are not going to sneak a 94 mph fastball past too many major league hitters like that.

2.) Mayberry is doing everything he can to get consideration to stay up on the main roster. He looks like a typical 4th/5th outfielder. Can fill in and has power off the bench.

He needs regular ABs in Lehigh...

Boring 8-6 loss.

Mayberry is the right-handed bat we sorely needed. On the other hand, Coste again shows that he cannot catch up to a major league fastball.

maybe he needs regular ABs in the majors

Best offensive game in a week and it's 7:28. It only makes the last six more inexplicable and frustrating, but hell, I'll eat it up with a spoon.

Based on Jamie's ERA, a 6 run lead should be enough, right?

Truth - yes, and note how Mayberry's 'development' was not exactly aided by regular time in AAA when he was last sent down. If they do that again in lieu of sending scrubs like Bruntlett to hit for Matt Stairs, I'm gonna personally fire Ruben Amaro.

This could be the first game in BL history where BAP doesn't somehow see signs of a loss.

Then again, "washed-up" Moyer is pitching.

Who is going to relieve after Moyer goes his standard six innings? The bat boy?

No, seriously, after the last week, I took a break from the Phillies yesterday; has anyone been called up to replace Clay?

i just saw chase smile as he and jimmy were running off the field. very strange.

Michael Taylor in 2011 will ground into a double play in that exact situation.

tg: Escalona. That's right, he wasn't already here.

Atta boy, Gramps. More ground balls, please.

I feel a little better about having voted for Bartlett as the AL shortstop when I voted 100+ times.

Pretty close play at first, wish we got a better replay.

dude MIcahel Taylor will be a big league player in 2010

Leave Philadelphia, big monkey gets off their back, bam 6-0 lead first inning against HOF lock. lol

And I see Howard playing today, must of made the flight early.

Pat's ground out there was a better ground out than what Ibanez could do.

Can it really be the day off an/dor the change of venue? What a bust out inning and Moyer is looking sharp. Maybe it's the shell shock but, I'm hoping they add on before TB gets in gear.

Rays announcing still insisting that Price's stuff was good in the 1st. Right.

Actually, Price does have pretty good stuff tonight, surprisingly enough having given up 6 runs.

Re: Price. Did everyone forget how Cole had a 5.00 era for his first half season?

Without the leadoff E-5, that first inning does look pretty different.

Price threw lots of strikes but, unfortunate choice of pitches to Utley and Howard. THat pitch Mayberry hit was the kind you like ot see to a right hander. Maybe not a lefty.

"Pat's ground out there was a better ground out than what Ibanez could do."

True but Ibanez used to ground out that well - before his game declined so much because of his advanced age.

If Wheels and McCarthey were to ride a motorcycle, who gets to sit in the sidecar?

Double sidecar?

Double sidecar, Sarge behind the handlebars I guess.

This is unreal, it's as if every single thing that went against the Phillies during the home stand has been reversed down in Tampa Bay.

Wow, the Rays D looks atrocious tonight.

Mayberry not that aggressive on the basepaths.

Rays seem to be imploding here...good.

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