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Monday, June 29, 2009

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Zolecki seems to have good instincts/sources on these things, and he says Carrasco.

Did anyone see "The Pen" last night? What a joke. They covered through the Orioles games, and the supposed "behind the scenes" look was completely missing. They showed the bullpen blowing up on a daily basis, some of Lidge's rehab, and a couple of extended interviews. That was it.

I was listening to 610 today and they had a guy on talking about the Phils trade options and Cliff Lee's name was brought up but we'd have to probably include Drabek in the deal. I don't think I'd do that. I think he should be untouchable.

What do you guys think?

Technically Carpenter has earned it, but that start in Washington probably dooms him in getting this chance.

In his last two starts Carrasco has gone 13.1IP, 2ER, 12K's and 5BB's. He has given up 12hits in that time. As JW says it will all be about how he handles the first sign of trouble.

Carrasco up and Drabek to AAA. They've both earned the chance. Let's see what they can do b/4 we give away the farm for a .500 pitcher who will be with us for 4 months.

I was in Florida in the Spring. Carrasco never looked like he was ready. Let's hope things have improved.

In about the same amount of innings, Carrasco has more K's, less BBs, less HRs and a better GB rate. He's the guy.

Why should Drabek go to AAA? That's ridiculous. It's his first full season, he hasn't thrown that many innings before, and he's only had 3 starts I believe at AA. There isn't that much of a competitive difference between AA and AAA anyway.

".500 pitcher who will be with us for 4 months."


If you're talking about Lee, Seth Everet said on 610 there's a club option on him for next year, though I've never seen him pitch and have no strong opinion about giving up top prospects for him.

He was the Cy Young winner last year. I think he went 14-2 or something ridiculous like that. He'd be great paired with Hamels.

He was 22-3...even more ridiculous

CC, cause our Carpenter doesn't have a hammer.


Remember when Chan Ho Park "technically earned" the 5th spot in spring training by dominating the grapefruit league, while almost everyone conceded that Happ was truly the correct pick?

I have a feeling this would be a very similiar siutation with very similiar results if Carpenter "technically earns" a spot over CC because of a slighty better 2009.

on a side note: can we get a discussion of whether the NL should have the DH during the All Star break?

Jack - I don't get the rush to promote Drabek either. Hell, he still is barely a full year back pitching competitively and has had as you noted just 3 starts. At the minimum, he should in Reading through July and probably until August. He has been good so far in limited action at Reading but not really dominant either. Good place for him to be on a pitch count watch and continue to refine his changeup.

Maybe he gets a Sept. callup if he continues to pitch so well but I would be surprised if the Phils will put that kind of stress on his arm or be willing to start the clock on him this year.

Off topic...

Ian Snell in his 1st game at AAA yesterday, struck out the first 13 (!) batters of the game and struck out 17 total.

I guess he was a bit motivated after his demotion to AAA. I bet we end up seeing him a few weeks from now in CBP.

Bring up Carrasco and see what he does before the All-Star break in a limited audition. If he struggles badly in 3 starts, then you know he isn't the answer to that last starting rotation spot until a potential move is made.

Reality is the Phils are likely going to need a 5th starter for at least a month and this will only be filled internally from a pretty limited pool of options.

Yahoo already has Carrasco listed as Thursday's starter.

I'm with MG. Give him a 3 game audition before the Break, and then evaluate.

If he's ready, you may have the starter you need without having to spend extra money and/or give up prospects (although they will still probably try and find another starter they could trust in the post-season). If he's not ready, he still gets his feet wet in the bigs and hopefully can learn some things for the next time he comes up.

This kid is a major league starting talent. Just have to see if its going to be this year or next. He's just 22, remember.

Sorry if this is a repost.

Meche suffering from "dead arm"

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/royals/story/1294958.html

From that story, I had no idea Bruce Chen was pitching with Kansas City. Tells you just how bad the league is when pitchers like that keep kicking.

It certainly sounds like Carrasco's the guy. Lauber reported this morning they were still undecided, the press notes from yesterday list TBD vs TBD. But Zolecki does have the track record for these things. Yahoo! must be speculating.

I saw "Chen" in the boxscore, and my first thought was that it was Bruce Chen, but I figured it couldn't have been him. Wow.

Drabek has already pitched more innings in the minors than Hamels, who was fast tracked after starting 2006 at the A level. By the end of the year he had pitched 132 innings in the majors, after having only pitched 51 innings in 2005 and 2004 combined.

I also support the Carrasco move. Rookie performances are notoriously hard to predict, but this represents the Phillies best shot at getting a solid contributor to the rotation from internal sources.

"Drabek has already pitched more innings in the minors than Hamels."

This point has been made a couple times. There are some key differences, though. Hamels' overall minor league numbers were vastly superior to Drabek's. And Hamels had pitched at AAA where the hitters are a lot more experienced than in AA. Granted, Hamels only made 3 starts at AAA, but in those 3 starts, he had an 0.39 ERA, allowed only 3.9 hits per 9 innings, and had an astounding 36 to 1 strikeout:walk ratio in 23 IP.

But here's the key stat for why Drabek should not be called up: 5.98. That was Cole Hamels' major league ERA after the first 11 starts of his career. Of course, he eventually adjusted and Drabek probably would too. But it might take Drabek longer, since he has even less experience than Hamels & has been less successful in the minors. But, even if it took him the same 11-game period, that would take us to the end of August. Would Beerleaguers really be satisfied to have a 5.98 ERA in the starting rotation from now through August? That question answers itself.

Pretty much any rookie pitcher is going to have an adjustment period but, the more experience he has, the shorter the adjustment period is likely to be. Happ is a perfect example. He pitched 3 years of college then stayed in the minors for what seemed like forever. When he finally came to the show, he was effective very quickly.

Yeah, I can't see the reason to rush Drabek at this point. Let him pitch... in the minors. AA is a fine place for him right now. We already have a "hotshot" prospect to test run. Let's bring up Carrasco and hope that a rotation of: Hamels-Blanton-Moyer-Happ-Carrasco can get us by until we trade for a starter. I'm sure we'll be seeing plenty of Carrasco and Drabek starting, perhaps, as early as next season.

Bruce Chen is still around?! :-o I'll always remember him for giving up a Grand Slam to Robert Person (who also had a 3-run bomb later in the same game) at the Vet in '02.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2009_06_28_lesafa_hdmafa_1


Long link, but well worth it. I hear that Amaro has decided to shore up the Philies' bullpen by trading Michael Taylor for Jose Yepez.

I like the idea of bringing up a young pitcher, particularly with the timing, so we have the break after trying them out. Gives the front office longer to finagle a trade - or in a best-case scenario, determine that a trade isn't necessary b/c the kid pitcher does well and everyone else is holding their own, too. Sounds like at least one of the trio of Drabek, Carrasco, and Carpenter can help us out in our future (2010 and beyond). The Braves of the 90's, among other teams, had a well-developed farm system that allowed them to consistently supplement their club with young talent and keep them competitive. In other words, it would be great not to trade away our young talent, at least not for a 1/2 year pitcher or a mediocre one. However, we need arms that can give us consistent quality starts, one way or another.

LOL...good one BAP.

Yepez is actually a catcher, so I suppose his astonishingly bad pitching line can be forgiven.

b_a_p: You forget this is the Phillies ... there's always room for another catcher on the roster!

On the comparison of Taylor to Abreu (made by clout in the last thread). I thought it was actually a fairly good one for Taylor's potential upside so I looked at the milb numbers:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=abreu-001bob

Abreu was 3 years younger than Taylor essentially so his lack of power (relatively) and slightly lower OPS (.898 in AA vs. .994) can be equalized a bit. Though I believe the TL and PCL (Abreu's leagues in minors) are far more of offensive havens than the EL. Its tough to make a legit comparison due to the age difference but I personally think Taylor is likely a better defender than Bobby though he definitely doesn't have the same batters eye that Abreu has always had (his strongest tool by far).

All in all, it could be a pretty good comparison and if Taylor were to actually live up to such a comparison, he'd be a huge asset to have. There are not too many players with the stats of Bobby. Statistically, he's probably just shy of HOF territory.

I would like to see us go with the first ever 5 catcher bench...surely UC and Rube would love to break convention and make it happen. Afterall, Coste, Marson and Ruiz have all played other positions (Marson in HS). Toss in Bako, Yepez, and one more, and we've got ourselves a bench.

anyone know Drabek's next start?

Remember... we can give Carlos Ruiz some more time at third base!

Drabek should be starting tomorrow vs Trenton...that's his spot in the rotation.

I mean vs. Altoona.

Thanks..damn, not the answer i wanted. I was hoping it would be thurs or friday so i could take advantage of the offday to go check him and Taylor out.

Word is that they'll get a starter. I don't know who. I doubt it'll be a top-of-rotation guy,so we'd better not give up too much like the Flyers did last weekend in the Pronger deal. I would hope that they would re-sign Myers for next year and beyond. That would bolster the staff too. I guess we'll find out soon what they will do.

Innings haven't seemed to have made Carrasco any better. Interestingly, Drabek is only 6 months younger than Carrasco and has markedly better numbers every step of the way. If he didn't have elbow reconstruction he would be the choice, but since he hasn't pitched a full year in them minors, we have a difficult decision of Carpenter versus Carrasco.

The only thing going for Carpenter is we can move him up and down and not worry as much about what it does to him because, after all, no one expects him to ever be a contributor anyway.

I would argue that unless you get a true #1 we go with the new kids. It might hurt us this year, but it should pay dividends in 2010 and going forward.

Savery on his way to his 10th win today.

Up 6-0 in the 2nd.

Taylor with 2 more hits (in 2 AB's) and another RBI. Ho-Hum.

Reading might be on their way to a championship, the way they have been playing.

Through 4, Savery has given up 2H, 2BB and K'd 2 with 0ER....I have to think have multiple pitcing prospects is helping these guys push each other.

Michael "Future MVP" Taylor is 2-2 with an RBI and is now batting 347 for the year.

Also, Yohan Flande was promoted to Reading this morning.

Yohan Flande (voice).

With Carrasco/Carpenter moving to the bigs, I would bet that either Drabek/Savery will be moving to Lehigh. I would guess Savery since he has been VERY good over the past month and they probably want to give Drabeks a few more starts in Reading.

Actually, if there's any Phillies' minor leaguer who has earned a promotion, it is Taylor. I'd like to see him bumped up to AAA.

Taylor should be in the major leagues. This is just like Ryan Howard being held back because there wasn't an opening at first. We need the D@MN DH rule in the NL

Savery with a 2 hitter through 5...11 of Savery's outs were groundballs...sounds perfect for The Bank in 2010.

Since Taylor is dominating Reading, I'd also like to see him promoted to AAA.

What about Bastardo? DL or back to AAA for rehab?

I believe Bastardo will be going on the DL, but I don't think it's been confirmed.

Andy: Re: Carpenter. He doesn't have a Hammer, but he does have a Yellow Hammer.

that dude-

you honestly want to see the DH in the national league? or were you just blowing off steam?

Reading has a hokey promotion every half-inning to keep fans' attention span but there is a good reason there now to go on a night where one of their young prospects (Drabek, Savery, even Worley) are starting and Taylor is in LF/RF.

Hell, for $11 bucks (and ample free parking) you get a great seat and be close enough to actually really be able to see what a guy like Drabek or Savery is throwing/just how big Taylor looks compared.

Never been a big fan at all of spring training but Cape Cod games and A/AA minor league games in the summer are a great way to see baseball at a very reasonable price.

What's with all this noise about promoting Drabek to AAA? He's been good in a handful of starts at AA, sure, but he's a ways from a finished product. Give him time, he's not gonna be able to help us this year anyway. Let him start next year at AAA and start looking for him to be knocking on the door by next May or June.

People get a little too excited about moving X player from one level to another. If it meant nothing, it'd be cool to call everyone up to the bigs and let them get a start or some ABs, but come on, but let's not rush these guys.

that dude-

you honestly want to see the DH in the national league? or were you just blowing off steam?


YES, if we had the DH we never would've had to have traded Thome. Imagine that lineup? Or imagine having a Mayberry or Michael Taylor in the lineup now in a non-pressure situation?

ALSO...WHo wants to see a pitcher hit? For real.

another monster day for Mr. Taylor 4 - 5 with two doubles..now batting .351..just ridiculous !!!! and there he is wasting away in AA...It's another typical Phils " block job"..first thome blocking Howard and now stoner Werth blocking Taylor. If it wasnt for Toronto, the toker would be hitting @ .240 with 5 hrs !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who wants to see a catcher hit? Who wants to see a third baseman hit? Or a great centerfielder?

Why not have a seperate offense and defense, like in football?

9 men bat, 9 men field. That's the game. It lends to stratagy and equity.

Dammit. Strategy. StratEgy.

Tyson Brummett, who had been in Reading's starting rotation all year, pitched 2 innings of relief in that game. It looks like they may be converting him to the pen in order to clear out the spot in the rotation for Flande. Seems like a sound decision. Even as a reliever, he doesn't strike me as someone who's likely to have a major league future, but I know for sure he didn't have a major league future as a starter.

@ Phil Lesh: would the 3rd baseman be able to blitz? Would you bring Ryan Howard off the edge? Or play him back in a zone?

That Dude - you realize the other NL teams would have a DH also correct? How's our pitching staff looked against the AL in their parks over the past two years? Not so good ....

Who wants to see a Gnome hit?

Here is where I miss having Pat Burrell in our outfield. If he were still here, this would be about the time when someone would drop a post reminding everyone that Burrell played third base in college & could be moved back there to make room for Taylor.

BAP - you do know that Ibanez was named to the single A all-star game as a Mariner Farmhand at Catcher in 1995 don't you?

We can call up Taylor and move Raul to Catcher when he comes off the DL ....

That Dude - you realize the other NL teams would have a DH also correct? How's our pitching staff looked against the AL in their parks over the past two years? Not so good ....


Yeah but the talented players who play DH would be dispersed among 30 teams. I think it would be an advantage to us in 2005 and now. Also, it would make watching games mroe entertaining.

Michael Taylor is 9 for 13 in his last 3 games.

Ridiculous.

He's always batting .412 for the season with RISP and .429 with Runners On. Promote the man to Lehigh already.

That Dude - I strongly disagree. The DH is a disaster and quite frankly bores the sh@# out of me when watching a game. It removes 90% of the strategy and basically renders the bench useless.

Terrible move in the AL in the 70's and is still terrible.

Werth smokes? I knew I liked that guy for a reason.

I actually don't think Taylor should be promoted to LV.

There are probably just as many pitching prospects in AA, as there are in AAA (and many of a organizations best pitching prospects are at AA).

Reading has a good thing going this year. Might have a chance at a Eastern League championship. Taylor is tearing it up and could win a triple crown in AA.

Keep him and Drabek and Worley and Savery right where they are and let them have some success and keep on keepin' on the rest of the year.

Then in September, bring a couple of them up (Taylor will be a no brainer) and let them get used to the pennent race and the Phils winning atmosphere as they steam towards a 3rd straight NL East championship. Maybe a Taylor gets a few AB's. Maybe Drabek pitches a inning or two.

Then in 2010, they can go to Spring Training going after a big league spot, with confidence from their 2009 seasons and some experience at the big league level.


Congrats to Savery in going to 10-1 on the year. ERA now near 3.00 for the year. There were a lot of doubters this kid would ever amount to anything. Nice to see him having success at least in Reading.

JMARR: Exactly right. DH baseball = checkers.

Braves will move up Lowe to pitch tomorrow.

Jurrjins goes on Wednesday and Vazquez on Thursday.

The Phils didn't exactly sting the ball against any of those 3 guys this year, so could be a difficult series.

Looking ahead, the Phils are likely to only see one lefty starter in their next 10 games (Sunday versus Santana), so that could bode well for the offense.

denny b is the man, the days he posts i usually end up in a good mood most of the day.

While taking in Sunday Night Baseball last night I was highly irritated listening to tales of how Joe Girardi has been whining about having so many DL-less Interleague games in a row. Apparently Hideki Matsui needs his ABs but, being too crippled to take the field, has been largely unable to get them. What a joke. The DL only continues to exist so washed up sluggers can get paid too much to go up & try to hit a HR every time they're at the plate. Yawn. I'd rather watch a pitcher bat any day of the week, in that it's far more interesting by way of contributing an important strategic element to the game. A player who is physically unable to do anything more than limp to the plate & swing has no business wearing a Major League uniform, period.

gtown: i agree, to complain that you have a player who is simply not good enough to play the complete game of baseball is pitiful. also, i think you meant DH.

JMARR: I agree with you on the DH, but your arguments actually favor it.
Removing 90% of the strategy brings other managers down to the level of ours, and their benches as useless as ours.

thephaithful: You're absolutely correct; I did mean DH ... although it's rather an appropriate slip considering the subject, no? ;-)

I'd like to see Gnome hit. If he is going to be on this team.

goody ---- that is funny.

I really hate the AL style of baseball. I was a gap-hitting middle infielder in college. Could bunt, steal a base etc. - so I'm pretty biased .... but you are right about Charlie and our Bench this year.

Hey not sure if this is accurate, but a poster on MLBTradeRumors posted this site in the comment section of one of the posts.

http://rotoinfo.com/read_article.php?articleId=318

It's claimed to be the rest of the 2003 steroid list. I always thought Bobby Abreu was on something and if this is accurate it explains where his power went.

2-0 MIL after a JJ Hardy homer in the third.

It would be nice to see the Mets fall below 500 today.

http://rotoinfo.com/read_article.php?articleId=318

Interesting...

I wonder if this list has any validity or if it came from an internet fan who simply rounded up those who were found guilty and paired them with the most probable suspects based on performance decline.

If it's true, I suppose that it's nice to see that no current Phillies grace the list. K-Rod is a bit of a shocker. Gagne is not. I also fully expected to see Dontrelle on the list.

You would think that if the identity of one could be leaked, the identity of all could be leaked. I guess we'll have to wait and see...

Floyd continues to be a living example of why we should not deal young talent in desperation for a rental.

Yo, knee thread

The most curious thing about the list is the number of position players relative to pitchers. The ratio is at least 3:2, perhaps more. I would have expected a 1:1 ratio. The author also listed Oliver Perez as a Dodger when he was a Padre back then. I am skeptical because there are few "shockers" on there.

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