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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Comments

Everyone sees him as a the consistent professional hitter but the truth is he has always been a streaky hitter.

lol - BAP saying "at the risk of being negative." Priceless.

And now it's time for another WFC to get hot and carry the team.

Not to be negative and I'm not naming names, but I can hit lefties better than #6 can.

Didn't even need to look at the user name to know who said it.

But yeah, if Raul cools off, we could be in trouble.

When the hell is Rollins going to wake up and start hitting, stealing bases, etc... Him and Vic have been awful quiet. Werth too. I guess it is a little comforting to know that we have A LOT of bats that should come to life a little... a lot of options...

Masterlock, Werth hit a 2 run homerun last night and almost hit another out to dead center. Rollins had 2 hits. Last nights L was due to Madson walking in a run and Howard/Ibanez going 1-10 with 6 K's.

Romero's curve destroyed Howard and Ibanez last night, i'll let them slide for a night and hope for a rebound for the rest of the series. Little too ealry to announce a slump for Ibanez.

Didn't he have a 13 game hitting streak going into last night's game?! What an awful slump...

"There's really no reason to ignore JRoll's struggles (his bloop homer on Sunday being nothing more than one of many popups that just happened to be carried by god past the fence). His D is fine (hell, it's great), but by god D isn't our team's problem (we have plenty of great fielders, losing Jimmy won't sink the ship). We need offense! We need a leadoff guy who gets on base! Bench him! Trade him! Sell him to the Yomiuri Giants! Get this over-the-hill has-been once-MVP a desk job!"

-Cranky dlhunter in the morning.

JW, try to do some homework before posting.

not counting last night's game(not up on b-ref yet)

Raul Ibanez june 2 - june 13:

53 PA 50 ABs .280/.321/.660 OPS .981 with 5HR and 13 RBI

just checked b-ref again with last night's game updated, and his line is .220 as BAP says. So over 55 ABs he looks fine, but over 50ABs he looks like he's slumping.

thephaithful: Would it be fair to say Ibanez has cooled off then, as I wrote in the header?

The lesson here is that in a small number of ABs a couple hits can make you look good or bad.

The whole point of using advanced statistical analysis is to field a team that will be competitive over 162 games, which conveniently never works when only one player produces. We we have a team full of capable producers who will be hot and cold at different times; my money would be on Rollins and Werth stepping up to carry us over the rest of June. They've been in a funk and are both due to break out.

Only one player on this team can be counted on for consistent production: Chase Utley. That's because he contributes to our run production even when he's not hitting for power.

Regardless, we lost last night because we were outplayed by a pretty solid team, and out pitched by a collection of no names. The Blue Jays could have easily put up 8 runs in regulation had luck not blown the Phils way. Hamels was not particularly sharp last night, umpire calls aside, and has not seemed to really find his fastball all year. The Jays consistently fought his fastball off and forced him into deep counts where he had to come over the middle of the plate. They may not have scored more than 2 runs, but they forced him out over 6 innings, which is a huge win considering the shape our bullpen is in. Thus, we used Durbin in the 8th, instead of the 10th, where Charlie was forced to use Condrey despite his ailing back. Losing Lidge and Eyre may not have affected us immediately, but it's going to catch up to us awful soon.

Lastly, Tyler Walker = yuck. Granted he came in cold, but the Jays took a bunch of swings off his fastball and scattered some well hit line drives. He can fill in for the time being but last night gives me no confidence he's a solution.

If you sit and wait for anyone to take an 0-5 night, then of course they're cooling off.

The reality is that Ibanez was on a 13 game hit streak and has an OPS of .902 in June, which brought his season OPS from 1.077 down to 1.037.

Go to the last week of April and first week of May and you'll see that he had an OPS of under .870for about a 60 AB stretch where he lost over .100 points of OPS. So he's not even in his largest "slump" of 2009 yet. Thats why I dont think its reasonable to suggest he's falling into his inevitable decline just yet.

Its amazing that we lead the NL in OPS despite our player with the lowest OPS getting the most at bats.

sneed: The key to Tyler Walker is to use him correctly: Middle innings vs. RH batters. He's really a ROOGY more than anything else. Actually, that makes him similar to Condrey, whose career numbers vs. LH are a bit better than Walker's, but whose numbers vs. RH are worse.

Now now boys, AHHH typical Bler "selective " stats. Yes, Raul is .220 in his last 50 AB's with 2 HR's and 8 RBI's. BUT if you take from the beginning of June which is only 10 ABS more (2 games) he all of a sudden becomes batting 16 for 60 which is .267, with 4 HR's and 13 RBI's.

Always cna count on sleective stats and small sample sizes from BLer.

Honestly, I couldn't care less if the guy bats .220 from here on out. The man has what some predicted for the year in the 1st half so far. I mean come on.

I'm not sure they were "outpiched by a collection of no names." Romero was drafted sixth in 2005, and has put together a pretty nice resume thus far in his rookie season. Besides getting knocked around by BOS and BAL in his first starts after returning from the DL in May, he's been a solid 2/3 starter for the Jays. The questions around him mostly are whether he'll blossom into a full-on ace, not whether he's a legitimate SP, especially to a leftie-heavy lineup like the Phils have.

Does anyone else find it hilarious that mvptommyd, who has declared himself right on all sorts of things with just one-third of the season gone, is now lambasting Beerleaguers for only looking at a snapshot of a 162-game season?

Also, a little tidbit. Last night was Raul's 1st no hit night since May 30th. Overall this season he only had no hits 10 times this season, with 22 multi-hit games. Including 3 multi hit games so far in June. But hey, you guys are right he is in a slump I forgot.

Anyway, where are all the Tyler Walker fans. You got your wish, he got brought up and STINKS. Typical journeyman releiver.

Clout: Well, Barajas doubled off of Walker and he's a righty. So there's that.

I don't think Walker threw enough last night for me to judge him either way, but I think the point is that if Walker is now a guy we go to in close games, we're in trouble. We need effective Lidge back, and soon. The injury to Eyre is more serious, I believe, so now the question is finding an equally effective LOOGY (Taschner is clearly not that).

Condrey had an off night last night--he was due. He's pitched great this year. As Sneed said, if Hamels had been able to pitch through the 7th like you want your Ace too, this could've played out a lot differently.

Clout: Yes, because Ibanez ALREADY has 22 HR's and 59 RBI's. You mean to tell me with around 90 games left he won't hit 3 HR's and 41 RBI's? Wow, interesting. Also, did you like how by just adding 2 games and 10 AB's to this "slump" theory, it all changed?

Guess that is stats for you, easily manipulated.

clout: Actually the lesson I think people should take from this is a season is 162 games long.

People can't rake the way Raul was for an entire season.

clout - It gave me a good laugh too.

mvp - Walker pitched a whopping 2/3 of an inning and gave up a bad 2B to Barajas. It is just a bit early to declare "he stinks" and who would you rather see up instead - Kendrick or Escalona? I think you could make an argument that Escalona might suit their needs better but not exactly like the Phils are brimming with great candidates to fill the back end of the pen while Eyre and Lidge are out.

My bet is that Walker will be serviceable. Not great but he will be one of the last guys out of the pen and likely only used if Cholly doesn't have other alternatives/Phils are down or up by least 3 runs.

"thephaithful: Would it be fair to say Ibanez has cooled off then, as I wrote in the header?"

While it might be fair to say, the post is certainly a bit misleading.

I mean, he had a 13 game hitting streak that dropped his average from .332 to .322 even before last nights 0 for 5. So, of course he's cooling, but did anyone really think he would hit .350 all season?

The implication was that he was more of a streaky hitter because he is down to .220 based on a poor sample of picking games, which I don't think helps the discussion any.

The Truth: Your right. I guess Raul if he isn't hitting .350, he isn't good enough and people on here will complain. Meanwhile, Rollins can't get over .230 and you don't hear a peep.

Phils have been terrible at home this year and always play poorly in Interleague play. So far they are 3-5 this year in Interleague play and frankly if they can go .500 the last 2 weeks of this month their fine.

Phils still miss Halladay this week and get an O's team that has some of the worst pitching in MLB. My bet is they split the Jays/O's series or even go 4-2.

Yet that's not great and people are so fixated on what the Mets don't have right now but the reality is that this team just isn't going to build a big cushion with their currently constructed pitching staff or with 2 straight weeks of Interleague play.

If the Phils still have a 3 or 4 game lead on July 1st, then they are in good shape.

mvp: Way to early to judge Walker, but your MO is to make snap judgments so i get it.

Lots of posters swiped at Cole in the game thread and really it was silly. Hamels clearly didn't have his best stuff last night- the fastball was staying high, and his curveball had no control. That being said he still left with the Phillies in a position to win the game, and in fact had a 3-2 lead.

Being an ace doesn't always mean, 8 IP a few hits and no runs. Sometimes it means doing the most you can with a lack of weapons on any given night. He scuffled but he kept the team in a position to win. The loss is clearly on the bullpen which couldn't find the strikezone and were just generally abused.

MG: How did that give you a good laugh? Raul is not in a slump. He went 0-5 last night. That changes Everything. As I said, he is .220 in his last 50 ab's. he is .250 in his last 45 ab's, he is near .270 in his last 60 Ab's. He has a bad night last night, big deal?

Walker, he BETTER be used last out of the pen. If Rod barajas can smoke a ball to the deepest area of the park off you then your in trouble.

The Truth: Ohhh, I get it. So to make snap judgements off Walker isn't right, but to make snap judgements on Ibanez off a poor game last night is alright. I get how this works.

mvp: You are no better than the doom and gloom posters. You thought Raul would keep up the pace he was at. That's really just not feasible in a 162 game season

The Truth: NO, of course not. But to call him in a "SLUMP" that is a bit much, right?

He did have a 13-game hitting streak, but in 12 of those games he got exactly 1 hit. A 1 for 4 or 1 for 5 game is not exactly raking.

I'm certainly not complaining about a guy who is having an MVP caliber season. My point is, without his MVP season, the Phillies might be a good 5 or 6 games lower in the standings. If he is cooling off, someone -- or some combination of people -- need to make up for it. Howard is certainly capable, although his hot streaks usually happen later in the year.

It's hard to argue that the Phillies were 'outplayed' by Toronto last night. Their offense did everything they could to sabotage their chances of winning, and only were able to tie due to a bases-loaded walk.

Watching the way Howard and Ibanez struggled last night against a middling left-hander still indicates to me that the Phillies' lineup could use some adjusting. Werth is the wild card righty somewhere between 2 and 6, and frankly, he's not been enough of a presence in that role to this point. Maybe it's time to move Feliz up a bit to help break up that cluster of left-handedness. Manuel will scream to the hills that it don't matter, but hell if it don't sometimes, Charlie.

mvp: No it isn't right. Too many people here are either "doom and gloom" posters or think guys can keep up torrid paces. It's opposite sides of the same awful coin.

Like I've said numerous times. A season is 162 games long. There are going to be peaks and valleys. Saying Raul was going to keep up his initial pace is as dumb as saying Walker stinks after 2/3 of an inning. Don't be so reactionary in analysis.

mvp - Your funny. I agree that Ibanez isn't slumping but just coming back to earth a bit. He would have to have another 2 weeks of hitting .230 or .240 with little power to say he is in a "slump."

Do you get RSS feeds from Beerleaguer that alert you to when Ibanez has been criticized just as DavThom seems to get about Coste?

Clout: Don't we already have a lot of ROOGY's?

Truth: Cole hasn't had very many "ace" starts all season. He's thrown a considerable amount of pitches before the 6th inning in the majority of his starts, which is very unlike him. He's allowed hits at a much higher than average rate, which may or may not be bad luck, but just as much suggests that he's become more "hittable." Maybe someone has time to pull the fan graphs, but I would be curious to see how "unhittable" his changeup has been versus previous years. If similar, you could make a reasonable assumption that his fastball is just not as good as it has been in the past. Let me be clear: I fully expect Hamels to get it back. Up until this point, his season has contained very mixed results.

Lastly, I figured I would open a can of worms by making a snap judgment about Walker, but something about a guy coming into a game and having his first pitch belted jolts me. I will concede that it's a very irrational suggestion on my part, so here's to hoping Tyler Walker is the next Clay Condrey.

BAP: In that context, your 100% correct. But the thing I have a problem with is the "slump" theory. Surely, you can agree with me that because he went 0-5 last night the last 50 Abs are skewed.

MVP, congrats on dragging the discourse down once again.

Most likely, Ibanez ends up with a slightly better season than most of us saw, but nothing out of the realm of possibility. He'll finish at the higher end of his performance capability, rather than at the median. Most of us saw about a .285/.355/.470 season out of him, with 25 HRs. Instead, we'll probably get a .290/.360/.500 season with 30-35(max) HRs. That's a nice little surge in power, but overall, just slightly above what most of us expected.

MVP: Who made a "snap judgment" of Ibanez off a poor game last night? You, yourself, just said that, if you throw out yesterday's 0 for 5, he's hitting .250 (it's actually .244) over the last 45 ABs.

The truth: No, I am saying Walker stinks from a combo of his career MLB stats AND last night. Career 4.51 ERA, 229 Innings, 97 ERA+, 1.42 WHIP. I mean seriously? Thats awful. His BEST year was in 2007, but he only pitched 14 innings with a 1.26 ERA. Other than that he has been PUTRID forever.

Let's change topics for a second. My buddies and I have been discussing a trade possibility this morning.

Would you offer Werth/Victorino, Carrasco, Donald and Marson to the Mariners for Ichiro and Bedard?

No rumors of this, just a question. I would do it in a heartbeat, but I am sure others would be hesitant.

Walker doesn't have great stuff. That's why he is a journeyman reliever at this point. If he can throw strikes consistently, that is an advantage over Taschner and he should be serviceable until Eyre gets back towards the end of the month.

Condrey might have the bad back and you don't know how much that affected him but he was really awful last night. Just couldn't throw a strike when needed and reminded you again of why he is a marginal reliever at best - not because of his stuff per se but that his control is quite erratic at times as it was last night.

Serviceable guy out of the pen certainly but not a guy who want to see out there generally in a tight game.

RSB: Great point.

Did I use the word "slump?" I don't know how many ABs one has to have in order to be declared in a "slump, but, considering he just had a 13-game hitting streak, I don't think the "slump" label really applies. My point is: he has slowed considerably from the torrid and unsustainable pace he was setting for the first 6 weeks to 2 months of the season. And my larger point was that, without that torrid and unsustainable pace, the Phillies wouldn't be nearly where they are right now. If Ibanez isn't going to be there to post a 1,050 OPS and bail them out of every close game, others need to start hitting better (i.e., Howard, Rollins, Werth, Vic, Dobbs).

Jack: 35 HR's Max, interesting. Summer months in the bank and he already has 22. I will have a gentlemans bet with you his season numbers look as follows. .290/.375/.500 with 40-45 HR's and 110 RBI's.

MVP: I will take the under on 40 HRs. No question.

I will also take the under on a .375 OBP. The RBIs I think could be accurate if he continues to bat in the 5 hole every game.

RSB: The Phils hit less and played worse defense. We didn't get charged errors for all of the bad plays we made, but there were several sloppy throws that allowed runners to advance. Maybe not "clearly" out played, but the Blue Jays put runners on base all night and the Phillies were lucky to work out of some jams.

BAP: "if you throw out yesterday's 0 for 5, he's hitting .250 (it's actually .244) over the last 45 ABs."

Exactly!So does that information warrent this "Beerleaguer would take great pride in becoming the first to point out that fan favorite Raul Ibanez has cooled off"?

If by "cooled off" means over 50 AB's he isn't hitting .350 then of course. But I mean give the guy a break. Good job Bler, you called it first he is hitting .220 over 50 Ab's. Then if he hit .400 over his next 50, will he be hot again?

Jack: Really, so you don't think he can hit at least 18 HR's over the last 90 or so games? You know come July/August that ball flys.

mvp: No, I don't think he will hit 40 HRs this year. Come October, we will see who was right. You don't have to try and justify now why you think it will be you.

mvp: How many homers did Chase hit last July/August after a hot start?

You seem to miss the point: Over 162 games players usually revert to their career mean; however, sometimes a guy has a career year that is unpredictable. It's not that anyone is discrediting Ibanez, it's that we've seen similar hot starts before and most often the player finished in line with his average performance. As Jack said, he is likely to beat the forecasts we made in the off-season and land at the higher end of his range, but to simply suggest that he is going to hit 45 homers because of how many he has to this point, is missing everything you should have learned by reading this board.

Since I'm a relatively new daily poster, I sense this is your "schtick" so it's all good. Just trying to enlighten you.

mvptommyd, I think your being a bit too defensive, nobody is ripping Raul, almost everybody is pleased with him. BAP's point is if Raul is going to settle down to his (good) career norms, somebody else is going to have to step up and help out. If anything, it was a compliment to what Raul has accomplished so far this season.

Tommy: I actually don't understand the point you're trying to make. 50 ABs encompasses 14 games, and a .250 average isn't exactly stellar. We're not allowed to say he has "cooled off?" I think you're perceiving grave insult where none exists. The phrase "cooled off" means what it means. There is no hidden dig in that statement.

I think that if Ibanez hits .400 over 10-12 games (50 ABs) I will consider him to be on a hot streak.

Sneed: Utley was hurt, come on man. You can't be that neive. He was hurt and we all knew it. Thats why he didn't hit HR's. And your right, this board is filled with negativity in the wrong places. Will be negative towards the organization for not getting a RH bat, BUT is COMPLETELY fine with bringing up a mediocre at BEST releiver and put him in a key situation. What happens, he gets pounded into submission. Then, story of the day on Bler, "Tyler Walker blows key spot for Phillies"? No, of course not, it is "Beerleaguer for breakfast: Not to be negative, but ...
Beerleaguer would take great pride in becoming the first to point out that fan favorite Raul Ibanez has cooled off. A reader weighs in:"

Seriously?

BAP: My whole point is, does it warrent a thread? Or even to be discussed for that matter?

There were sooo many other storylines to discuss. Tyler Walker, Cole can't get through 6, Madson blows 1st save after many suggested switching him and Lidge's roles, Rollins makes 3 straight defensive blunders in the 6th. I mean come on.

Cmon man, "Beerleaguer would take great pride in becoming the first to point out that fan favorite Raul Ibanez has cooled off. A reader weighs in:"

It's a freaking joke. Relax.

A ROOGY is a Chinese LOOGY.

Also, how about our stellar at home record, 13-17.How about discussing that.

MVP Makes the blog borderline unreadable. I am learning to read past the posts...

"It's a freaking joke. Relax."

Really? I don't think so...

Douche fan: Really? Why is that?

MVP: Injury or not, guys often have one half of the season where they hit for a lot of power and then not as much the other half. For example, I'll use a guy who used to play for the Mariners named Raul Ibanez:

2006:
1st half, 20 HRs
2nd half, 13 HRs

2007:
1st half, 6 HRs
2nd half, 15 HRs

2004:
1st half, 11 HRs
2nd half, 5 HRs
(despite playing 17 more games in 2nd half)

a few thoughts, ibanez will cool off but that is to be expected, unless u expected he would hitnearly 60 homers and 175 rbis. And I'm thinking the struggles at home come from the fact that teams can bang it with u at the Bank, whereas in a ballpark like Petco, Citi, or wherever u have a diced power advantage....

MVPTommy, take a chill pill, bro.

Jack: Ok, point taken. But we will see. If anything makes sense, it is that the 1st half would be his slow months since it is colder.

What this loss really shows is how badly this team needs to Lidge to return (and return to form). Madson is a great pitcher, but he has been great as the set-up guy. Maybe he can go on to be a great closer too, but last night should remind us that Madson is human, and can blow saves just like Lidge.

I hope that Lidge's rehab is going well and he can return to something closer to his 08 form. If not, this team can definitely not repeat as WFC.

Because mvptommyd, you constantly try to control the conversation, you repeat the same points over and over again until people lose interest. Whether you're right or wrong, just accept that people won't always agree with you. I too, think its sorta a pointless topic, but neither of us are the Beerleaguer ombudsman.

Too much coffee for MVP this morning.

Madson blew the save? Well, technically, I suppose you're right. But what I saw were a couple of ultra-cheap hits, an intentional walk, and then a very good job getting himself out of the jam with only one run allowed. It goes down in the box score as a blown save, but it was hardly the type of performance which I would point to if I were trying to make the case (as you seemingly are) that Madson can't close.

Here's a story line worth discussing though: the intentional walk to Lind, to load the bases. It continues to blow my mind that managers think it's a good idea to intentionally walk the bases loaded. I swear, just about every time they do it, the pitcher proceeds to walk in a run. It puts an enormous amount of pressure on the pitcher to be pitching with the bases loaded -- especially in a 1-run game in the late innings.

MVP- What BeerLeaguer seems to take pride in is to get a discussion going on a less than blatantly obvious subject- hence the Ibanez cools off lead.
We know we lost on bases loaded BBs and a bad 10th inning of relief pitching.
Raul not as hot as he was is subjective to some degree and not in-your-face obvious- so it's gotten some hot button responses and made interesting reading.
Just my opinion-

bap - Madson gave up a 2B to Rolen and walked in the tying run. He blew the save last night but didn't catch a break either.

What I was kind of surprised at was Ruiz's pitch selection to Rios? to walk in the tying run. It wasn't solid and included throwing a 3-2 changeup when Madson didn't have great command of that pitch last night to throw it for a strike there. Yeah you don't want to give a guy a fastball there but you do need to throw a strike with the bases loaded.

I thought Madson actually pitched pretty welll, the bases loaded walk aside. 2 unlucky hits, and he got 2 strikeouts when he needed them. He certainly pitched better than either Romero or Condrey.

BAP: Yea, well unfortunately they all count the same. I agree, the most annoying thing in sports is intentional walk unless the next hitter is the 7-8-9 guy.

Ruiz is a decent defensive catcher/handle a pitching staff but he is overrated a bit. He does some things well as a defensive catcher (blocks plate and balls well) but he has an average arm and is only so-so at a framing a pitch. His reputation for his ability to handle a staff is also overrated a bit.

The obvious objective of the walk to load the bases is to set up a DP. One would think Ruiz and Madson would be looking to throw something to induce a ground ball. A change low in the zone could have done the trick. In isolation, not the worst blown save ever but, in context, their sudden Mets-like inability to hold leads is driving me nuts.

Truth: How long is Hamels going to be able to ride the increasingly tired "he didn't have his best stuff" argument? Case in point - Through his first 12 starts in '08, Cole pitched 7 innings or more 9 times. Through his first 12 starts in '09 he's only pitched 7 or more innings 2 times. Yes, he's been keeping the Phils in the game, but the whole point in having an "ace" is that he's expected to do *MORE* than merely keep his team in it.

The bottom line is that, for whatever reason(s), Cole has not been able to go deep into his starts, & that has been adding to the burden placed on an already overburdened relief corps. It is not at all out of line to assign Hamels a portion of the blame for last night's loss, nor is it silly to expect more from the #1 starter on a WFC team.

Like I said in the last post, "someone else" has stepped up already. Utley's hitting .368 with an 1.146 OPS this month. Besides which, it's far from clear that Ibanez has really started to cool off yet. Which isn't to say that the offense couldn't be in bad shape if, say, Ibanez and Feliz went cold at the same time, and that's very possible.

Ok, I'd like to throw a new topic on the fire, since this one seems to have stoked it to a frenzy...

MLBTradeRumors.com had an article yesterday on the Type A and Type B free agent projections for 2010. Noticeably absent from the list was Erik Bedard, and here's what MLBTR had to say as to why:


Wondering about Erik Bedard? He has 69.259 of 100 points, while the lowest Type A American League starter has a 74.815 score. He's in the middle of the AL Type B starting pitchers at the moment. But if Bedard is traded to an NL club, he'll be ranked with that league's starters.

This got me to thinking of the potential trade consequences of this revelation. An NL club would be in a better position to offer Seattle more value for Bedard knowing he has more potential to be Type A in the NL, and thus they will receive draft pick compensation if the club offers arbitration and he does not resign. An AL club might not see the value in trading prospects for Bedard when they cannot be replaced via compensation.

This might limit the trade market to NL teams only. Looking around at this point at NL clubs interested in pitching, you would have to think it would be only the Phillies, Mets, and Cubs potentially at this point, and out of those three, I think the Phillies are in the best position in terms of depth in prospects to get something done.

Also, if the Phillies could put some distance on the Mets in the coming weeks before the All-Star Break and really drive them to the brink, you could eliminate a player from the market and help yourself get Bedard cheaper.

For such a minor revelation that MLBTR almost mentioned in passing, that Bedard/compensation thing might have drastic effects on the trade market for him.

MG: Rolen's hit was a single, not a double. And my recollection is that it was a little blooper. Rolen ended up on 2nd because he took the base when Ibanez threw to third trying to get Wells.

Hugh: I know the theory of the walk was to set up the DP (and avoid facing the left-hander). I just think that potential benefit is more than offset by the risk of walking in a run.

My feeling is if 2 of the 3( Moyer, Bastardo or Happ) have bad next starts then a trade will be made ASAP. As long as 2 of the 3 pitch quality outings, then I think Rube will drag it out to the deadline as I said before.

Bedard I heard is a no go for us because of his injuries and his "attitude" whatever that means.

BAP:

The whole IBB with 1-out and runners at 2nd and 3rd is a great debate.

Read this if you have the time. It's painfully long. Print and bring to the toilet :)

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-to-walk-part-2/

b_a_p - I figured you know that. I am of two minds on the strategy. If the pitcher has spotty control, I don't fill that base. If he throws strikes consistently, I probably take the risk.

Hydrant: Excellent. Thanks. I did print it and will definitely read it when I have time -- although it's already too late to take to the toilet.

* From Bill Conlin. haha

Joe Morgan (1983). The Wheeze Kid and Hall of Famer ranks with tennis genius John McEnroe as the best sports analysts going, despite misspeaks and blown facts that have earned him the ultimate tribute to fame, a blog site called "Fire Joe Morgan." Two Emmys . . . The current ESPN A-team analyst called both Giants and A's games before his long network career.

Rolen's 9th inning hit was a ground ball that is normally to the 3rd baseman if he's not guarding the line. Guarding the line makes sense sometimes, but Madson was throwing pretty hard last night.

And it was hit hard enough to get through, but not hard enough to get to Ibanez (playing deep) in time to hold Rolen to a single.

bap: I wasn't trying to suggest that Madson can't close. Just that the Phils are going to need both he and Lidge performing well to repeat last year's success. Maybe thats an obvious point, but Madson's been so good I think some people, including myself, thought that he could ascend to the closer role and make us forget about Lidge.

Even if Madson were to remain the closer when he got back, its clear that the bullpen is a bit of a mess with Lidge gone.

Ok, this board is dead so I am going to spice it up with something that is funny and a debate.

Keeping on track with the thread ibanez is batting .220 over his last 50 AB's. Well our dear friend to the south Pat" The Babe" Burrell has come alive and has batted .220 over his last 50.So here is the question is Raul cooling down, or is "The Babe" heating up?

In other Ex-Phillie news. Your favorite former Phillie and mine, Bobby Abreu is hitting the cover off the ball in his last 50 ab's batting .315, power numbers are nonexistant, but wow can he hit those singles out of the 3-hole.

Yeah, rough inning for Madson. Swinging bunt. Roller into the hole vacated by Feliz while he guarded the line. Rolen moves up on Ibanez's ill-advised throw to third. Which forces Charlie to call for the IBB (which I hate with a strike-out pitcher on the mound).

Madson's one big mistake in the inning was the 3-2 pitch out of the zone with the bases loaded.

Bad luck for Ryan, but he earned the BS with that walk.

[ignore off]

mvptommyd: You cement your troll status every single day.

[ignore resumes]

Last night's game did demonstrate how important Lidge is to our bullpen's depth. And Eyre, for that matter.

Condrey will become exposed as he is forced into more high leverage situations. He's pitched great, don't get me wrong, but I'd rather he not be in key spots every day.

CJ: ok, so Phillies fans are now trolls? Interesting.

I am merely making fun of Burrell and Abreu.

"The Pen" is on again today at 1pm on the MLB Network

CJ: Really? Say it ain't so. You mean to tell me switching guys bullpen roles doesn't work? Get out, your joking. Of course. Because those 2 are out everyones roles have shifted, that is why they are getting worn down. This will be a reaccurant thing until Lidge and Eyre return. Which makes starting pitching that much more important.

We can not afford for 6 innings of starters then 2 innings from Durbin/Condrey/Walker/Park/Romero followed by Madson. That won't work.

pb: I wish I had MLB Network. I've heard good things about it.

Not to beat a dead horse but Cholly is on XM MLB channel right now and was asked about the Dobbs "foul ball" from last Friday night. He explained why he thought it should be reviewed and why the ump did not review it. Cholly is convinced, based on his view and tape they have in the clubhouse, that is was a HR. He said the ump based his call on where it landed and not where it was when over the foul pole. Oh well, nothing you can do about it now, but its worth noting.

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EST. 2005

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