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Thursday, May 28, 2009

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Speaking of Bastardo, he pitched 7 shutout innings today for Lehigh Valley. (interestingly though he only had one strikeout). I haven't seen much on his stuff, but he's always racked up K's, and the good sign this year is that he is walking pretty much no one. If his control has truly improved while keeping his high K rate, then his value goes up tremendously.

Stark mentioned that teams are really asking about Carrasco, Donald, and Marson because I would imagine they think these guys are the most likely to contribute in the very near future.

I do wonder if their values though all have diminished a bit even since spring training because of their poor starts so far and if the Phils are willing to trade low-cost players they likely are desperately going to need to round out their roster next spring as they have already committed a huge amount of money to their core players.

At the minimum, the Phils will likely need Marson and Donald to come in at the rookie salary to round their roster unless they either manage to pare payroll elsewhere or the Phils run a payroll next year at $145M or so.

I also wonder what other teams are asking for staring pitching if the Braves expect something significant in return for a stiff like Jo-Jo Reyes (who at best ends up a functional reliever like Durbin down the road) or the Giants' demands for a middle-of-order bat for a marginal starter like Sanchez.

If that is the case, the Rockies probably are asking for a Carrasco/Donald type package with maybe even another prospect.

More and more it seems like that if Myers is hurt the Phils are going to deep quite deeply into their internal well over the next 2 months to find a starter. Means that the likes of KK, Carpenter, Worley, Lopez, and even Chacin might get an opportunity and potential to stick around at the MLB level if they perform adequately.

Repost from the last thread:

HH -- Well Mike also mentioned Bobby Ayala as a Met reliever right there. That kinda killed his credibility for me also considering Bobby Ayala hasn't pitched since the late 90's IIRC. Similar to last year i see it being tight all summer and coming down to the last few weeks. All i can hope for is Ollie giving us a similar hot streak to what Myers gave you guys at the end of last year. Has any news on Myers MRI come out yet?

I didn't think I could let go of Jamie.

I was really hoping he'd eak it out to the end of this new contract as a below average 5th starter and retire with lots of hoopla.

But maybe he's done. And that, kids, is a bummer.

MG -- I know about the top names in the Phils farm (Drabek, Donald, Marson, Carrasco etc.) but how are the lower levels? Are there any huge upside, but years away types?

Great Article by Stark. He continues to be one of the only National Writers I really can't wait to read.

With Brett Myers having a MRI today, I think the Phils could make a move real soon. The prognosis doesn't look real promising. The x-ray revealed some "jaggedness." I don't know, but that sounds sh*tty.

If Myers is out, I could see Marquis being the immediate replacement. That would be a quintessential Phillies move. Marquis is pitching to almost the same level that Myers was, so a lateral move might make sense there. The Phillies probably wouldn't have to give up much to get him.

It would be great to get an Oswalt, or Peavy, but the Phils farm system is finally looking pretty good, and I don't think it is a good idea to empty it on a gamble.

Johann Bastardo pitched 7 shutout innings in his second start at AAA today. Interestingly, he only had 1 strikeout. His ERA is 2.08 in his first 2 starts at AAA. That's pretty significant because he struggled a bit when he made the jump from A to AA -- "struggle" being a relative term, since his numbers while struggling were still better than almost every other starting pitching prospect in the Phillies' minor league system.

Met Fan - If you are really that interested in Phils prospects, I would head over quickly to PhuturePhillies. Pretty damn good place to get info on the Phils' farm system.

Phils have some prospects who are really interesting in their system but they are largely at A (Clearwater) and a couple at AA (Reading). Issue is do they have any starting pitchers who are ready to make an impact this year and that is really debatable especially with how mediocre Carrasco has looked.

IaMF: Two 6'5 outfielders, right handed Michael Taylor (AA) and lefty Dominic Brown (High A) have a lot of promise, and star potential. We have some pitching talent at the lower levels but I don't know enough about who has better long term potential.

The question is if Bastardo does get called up what do the fans come up with for him in LF? Bastardo's Boys, Illegiminate Ones, . . .

I confess: I'm a big sucker for guys who post eye-popping numbers at multiple minor league levels (that's why I always liked Happ). Eye-popping minor league numbers are not always a good predictor of major league success (remember RJ Swindle?), but they are definitely reason enough to give someone a shot. The last Phillies' minor leaguer who posted numbers like Bastardo's was Cole Hamels, and he turned out ok.

I would be curious to read an updated scouting report on Bastardo. clout and NEPP have written some posts about his repertoire, and the fact that his secondary pitches weren't so great. But I am guessing those posts might have been based on older scouting reports.

It's a little hard to believe that Bsatardo can post such great numbers, even at AA, with nothing but a low 90s fastball and poor secondary pitches. It's also hard to believe that a pitcher with nothing but a fastball would evoke a Johann Santana comparison. Perhaps he has improved some of these secondary pitches in the time since those scouting reports.

Brain and MG -- Thanks, and Brown and Taylor i have heard in passing mostly on MLBTR. Peavy sounds like a little too much of a problem in acquiring not knowing whether or not he will waive his NTC. I would push for Bedard were i Omar or Ruben. The M's are gonna figure out they won't get an equal bounty back for him, and securing draft pick compensation is proving to be a tad more difficult than it was in past seasons. Otherwise both of us should settle for a Jason Marquis/Washburn type rather than sacrifice our top farm players.

MG: I don't know, but if he does come up the potential is limitless and the jerseys will sell.

I actually have a friend who wishes beyond all reason the Flyers would sign Satan just so she could have the sweater. The fact that he plays for the Pens is very fitting.

BAP: I have no problem at all comparing Bastardo to Sanatna. Both speak Spanish.

On another rookie hurler, Worley, ThePhaithful made a very wise post earlier when he wrote: "At best, Worley might become half of Roy Oswalt."

I like Worley, but he projects as a back of rotation guy. And that assumes he makes it. More than half of all pitching prospects fail.

HH -- Being a knicks fan with family in Indiana i remember asking one of my uncles how the Pacers were on pace to challenge the Bulls for top spot in the east in 1998. His reasoning: "They have an assistant coach named Dick Harter." Nothing better than the amusing sports names.

I think Stark's doing his best to overhype our prospects the way writers in other markets hype theirs.

Biggest non-surprise of the day: Harry to be inducted into the Phils' Wall of Fame this year.

Missanelli just repoted Myers has frayed labrum might require surgery

Philly.com reports the same.

After having an MRI today, Phillies pitcher Brett Myers was told that there was fraying to the labrum in his right hip, an injury that could require surgery and jeopardize the remainder of his season.

"I don't know what I am going to do," Myers told The Inquirer. "First I am going to get a second opinion."

Myers said that the Phillies doctors told him the injury would likely require surgery.

Myers said his hip has been bothering him for much of the season. He left Wednesday night's game against Florida in the sixth inning with pain and inflammation in his hip.

Myers is 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA in 10 starts, allowing 1'7 homers in 632/3 innings.

If these kids aren't so impressive as their numbers suggest, a la Worley or Carrasco, I say ship them. Although I hope we can do better than Country Joe this time.

That's the novelty of having multiple prospects, the ability to make trades w/o killing the farm.

This is about the only way Myers would be back next year. I predict he ends up going the surgery route, then comes back on a 1-Year make-good contract ....

Looks like the fightin's will be adding something other than a 4/5 starter at the deadline this year from my seat. I think the likes of a trade for somebody like Peavey, Oswalt, Lee, Young etc. just went from 5% to 40%.

The likelihood of the Phillies being fleeced in a trade just shot up quite considerably as well...

Touche' doubleh ...

Without Myers, the rotation is going to be 2007 redux. At least the bullpen is much stronger than the flotsam than largely was in the Phils' pen during the summer of '07. Big question now is the offense going to be capable of carrying this team like it did in '07.

They can if they hit like they do on the road but not at home.

Who's gonna be this year's Kendrick circa 2007?

I still don't understand how losing Myers would be such a devastating event. How many good - not "quality", not serviceable, but *good* starts has he made this year? Two or three? I mentioned he had been pitching better of late - but did anyone actually expect that to continue? Guys like Kendrick and Park are a decided step down, but how far down are we really talking? Enough to lose this team a significant handful of games? I don't think so. Myers really isn't that good.

Hopefully, it's not Kendrick or we can start with the "Season=OVER".

Myers has pitched more innings than any of our other starters... how is that not a big loss? Yes, he gave up a ton of homers, but he wasn't horrible. Replacing him with Kendrick or Chan Ho is a significant downgrade...

RSB - Agreed Myers was only really an average/above average starter at this point but you have a ton of question marks in the rotation besides Hamels and there is a notable falloff between Myers and likes of Park/KK.

Let's say it is only a 2-3 game swing in the W-L column for the remainder of the season - that's still huge and the Phils have had the narrowest of margins to make the playoffs the past 2 seasons.

H2: Probably. The only Kendrick I'd want around this team now is Howie, and that isn't going to happen... and he'd only be our RH pinch hitting option.

"Who's gonna be this year's Kendrick circa 2007?"


Could be Worley or Bastardo. Honestly, I had forgotten about AB in assessing who may come up on Tuesday to take Myers spot in SD. Now, Stark has labeled him as "another Santana" (easy there Jayson).

Worley is more like KK. His rise has been quick and has a similar way of pitching (with a better heater). His makeup, has been lauded by almost everyone who has dealt with him. His performance in AA speaks for itself.

They could go several ways (until a inevitable trade is made). Worley, Bastardo, Carpenter (who seems to have gotten a confidence boost since he went back down to AAA after his one-day call up in Washington) and possibly even Kendrick (who obviously has the most big league experience of them all; but hasn't pitched as well as any of the 3 this year), could and likely are in the mix.

I don't know if its a bad thing or a good thing, that the one guy most thought would be "next in line" from the minors (Carrasco) is likely not in the mix, at this time. Shows there is solid competition in the Phils system in the pitching department. And more interesting prospects in A and AA as well. Gillick deserves some credit for his drafts the past few years. Starting to see some light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel.

RSB:

Park as a starter:
ERA 7.29, WHIP 1.740

Myers as a starter:
ERA 4.46, WHIP 1.351

Perhaps you think Myers is just a slight step above Park, but the numbers suggest it's more of a chasm.

I can accept the argument that Myers may not be that good... but Park has been an unmitigated disaster. No reason to bring him into the discussion.

I am excited about seeing other young guys step up like Happ has. I am also excited about the Phils possibly dealing for a decent starter.

I am not excited about Moyer and Chan Ho Park possibly remaining in the rotation for a large part of the season. If that turns out to be the solution to Myers injury, then season really does=over.

No reason to believe it will be anyone but Carpenter short term. He's gotten the call already and it wasn't terrible.

Comments are back on at Metsblog. You now have to go through an approval process to become a member of their community. Makes me glad that such a process is not required here.

I think we're likely to see a trade now, very likely.

That said, I'm sticking by my stance that winning the WS has afforded us the chance to NOT have go all-in this year and trade the farm. Because it helped us win the WS, and get the first title to Philly in 25 years, I won't criticize the Blanton deal, and how much we gave up in it.

However, I will criticize the Phillies if they give up another top prospect for a marginal upgrade, regardless of the outcome. Either make a serious deal that upgrades the team long-term significantly, or give up a marginal prospect for a marginal upgrade. But don't make another Blanton deal. As tempting as it may be now with Myers out.

From Metsblog:

"For now, all new-user comments will immediately go in to moderation, much like is done on Deadspin, and other highly-trafficked blogs. There, comments will be reviewed before determining whether the new user will be allowed to join the MetsBlog community."

Weird... does that mean they get to decide if they like what you are saying or not? Is it just about violating the site terms, or will they filter out negative opinions.

RSB - I agree with you. The only reason he looks even half decent is because the rest of the rotation has been so bad. As you say, Kendrick and Park are definite downgrades, but if we put a Peavy, Oswalt, or Webb in there when we wouldn't have otherwise, I'll take it. Somehow I think I'm only having wishful thinking.

Jack:

I guess I'm one of those people who doesn't think the Blanton deal was a bad deal. He helped us win the WS and will likely be our #3 starter for this year and next at a relatively cheap price.

Cardenas was a middle infielder... a position at which we already have Rollins and Utley as well as Donald in the minors.

Outman is performing better in Oakland than I think most of us expected. I don't remember many people being all that upset that he was included in the deal. Who knows if he'd be pitching as well for us.

But that's how deals work... you trade unknowns for known quantities.

CJ, I would bet they filter out negative opinions. You have to remember who Cerrone's partners are - the folks at SNY.

I predict his traffic will go down. Too many other options are out there.

OK, I just had an argument with someone telling me that the "ten cent head" thing doesn't affect talent (like with someone like Myers, Perez or Zambrano). What?

Isn't composure on the mound a HUGE part of pitching? Being able to recover when you make a bad pitch or your defense fails behind you or the umpire gives you an unfavorable call?

espn950: myers torn labruim will need surgery to repair. myers is searching second opinion.

Would insurance pick up the remained for Myers salary? I tend to think thats the only way we would pick up a Peavy, Oswalt, or Webb.

I'm pretty sure if the Phillies let him, Myers will just pitch through the hip injury for the remainder of the season. (if possible) If he is a 4.5 ERA pitcher with the injury, like he has been so far this season, well, why not.

I would rather they bring up Bastardo than trade for Peavy and especially Oswalt.

I would rather they keep the farm and stay competitive than forget about longterm for another WS shot short term.

I can only see losing our leading pitcher (in most statistical categories) as a bad thing. A few days ago we were speculating about the possibility of acquiring Marquis to replace one of Moyer/Blanton. Now we certainly have to replace Myers, and with god knows what. Meanwhile Moyer may continue to get shellacked.

"Now we certainly have to replace Myers..."

I'm getting ahead of myself; I don't know that.

Hibachi: How do you think Bastardo will perform in the major leagues if he is put into the rotation now?

Carlos Zambrano suspended 6 games for his tirade yesterday.

BTW, why is hip surgery everywhere this year?

Hips and knees are the first things to break down when athletes come off of long-term steroid use???? jk

What a treat, Buffalo v.s. Lehigh Valley replay of last night on SNY now.

"Hibachi: How do you think Bastardo will perform in the major leagues if he is put into the rotation now?"

No clue. I mentioned Bastardo since Stark was raving about him and it seemed like he'd be first in line to get a shot.

Now I just heard Simon Gagne had hip surgery today. It's tres chic, apparently.

Who knows on Bastardo...he could pull a Kendrick and fool opposing hitters with his 1 plus pitch for 4 months or he could become a HR machine. He has had pretty good control with his limited pitches and apparently his fastball/changeup combo has improved. I wonder how his curve has come along?

If its Bastardo, Worley or KK...its basically a roll of the dice.

****Would insurance pick up the remained for Myers salary?****

It should...assuming they have his contract is fully insured.

Met fan: I'm a phils fan living in CT - I was going to post the same thing. M. Cairo batting 4th. I'm excited to see Bastardo pitch - never seen him before.

By the way - since I live in CT I get mets, red sox, and yankees games and also have MLB.com. I have heard all the announcers and have to say that right now the SNY broadcast team is the best of them all. I hate to admit it, but I find it to be true.

Cairo hit his first home run since 2005 (2005!!) for the Iron Pigs today...

How about one of those NBA type trades…Where one team says sure I’ll trade you my best player but since I don’t really want to your gonna have to take a bad contract also

The Phillies get Halladay but agree to take on most of or all of Veron Wells’ contract? (09 $10mil, 10 $21mil, 11 $23mil can opt out after season, 12 $21mil, 13 $21mil, 14 $21mil, 15 FA) or Alex Rios’ not near as bad contract? (09 $5.9mil, 10 $9.7mil, 11 $12mil, 12 $12mil, 13 $12.5mil, 14 $12.5mil, 15 $13.5mil club option w/$1mil buyout, 2016: FA)

Philles trade Victorino and some combo of Carrasco, Knapp, Savery, Worley, Bostardo, Marson, Donald, Mayberry, Brown, Taylor…. and a lesser prospect or two?

Woah, you never know who you will get on a AAA roster. The Mets have Mike Lamb while the Phils have ex-Met David Newhan.

Bastardo (I thought that was your guys' nickname for him :)) looks pretty good, but I'd be hesitant to start the Santana comparisons yet.

There are like 11 people at this game the broadcast team is as ackward as a fart in an elevator

S.O.B., Zo Zone reporting DL likely for Myers with surgery possible. F'd in the A!

I know Myers isn't the most popular or likable player on the Phillies, and I know Beerleaguers tend to be an optimistic bunch . . . but I'm having a bit of difficulty seeing how anyone could conclude that losing our No. 2 starter -- on a team with terrible starting pitching -- is no big deal.

As for who gets the first shot at replacing him, CJ is probably right: Carpenter got the first shot before & is a good bet to get it again. Bastardo needs to make at least 3 or 4 more starts at AAA before the Phillies would consider him. But if he continues to throw up great numbers, and our starting pitching remains a mess, I don't know how they could NOT him a shot.

I can't think of a team (besides the Yankees) that would assume Wells' gargantuan contract - even if it came with Halladay. He hasn't played a full season in several years and just hasn't displayed the production many were expecting early in the decade. Plus, we wouldn't have enough speed if we gave up Vic for Wells.

Gentlemen, don't be surprised if Marson is included in a trade to replace Myers. Marson hits and he is going to be a good big league catcher, but the importance of the Phillies current backstop is not to be underestimated. Rollins is the Phillies mouth. Utley is their best player (we ARE blessed). Howard is their masher. Carlos Ruiz is the fiery one that wears his emotion on his sleeve, and who hates to lose... you can see it in his eyes. He handles pitchers with a wisdom beyond his years, gets balls in the dirt, blocks the plate like a Spartan, and hits in the clutch. Guys like him help to perpetuate a winning organization. If the Phillies are smart, Chooch will be squatting back there for the next six or seven years.

have watched 3 innings of bastardo - he's throwing strikes and looks composed on the mound but stark is smoking something if he thinks he compares to santana. His only pitching 89-90 and quite a few guys have hit the ball hard off him - it's just been right at people. he's more like happ than hamels or santana.

Losing Myers is a big deal. Let's say the Phillies were going to acquire Roy Oswalt yesterday, for example. It's a lot different for Oswalt to replace Happ or the current version of Moyer than it is for Oswalt to replace Myers and then keep Moyer/Happ in the rotation. You go from getting a lot better to almost status quo. And just so people don't focus on the wrong thing, "almost" doesn't mean I'm saying Myers is almost Oswalt.

It's time the Phils gave some of their kids a chance.Look how they have screwed around with Happ.Why draft them if you aren't going to give them a chance?

I agree, losing Myers is a big deal, as his upside is much greater than say Park's, Kendrick's or some other unknown qty in the minors. Now the Phils are faced with having to get 2 starters instead of 1 to really improve the rotation.

from deadspins twitter page:

Random email from Dspin reader: "I know people that know people, but Halladay for Carrasco, and a couple of prospects, stay tuned." FREAKOUT

Danny: I'm calling shenanigans. Yesterday I heard the Mets were getting Halladay. The Jays are still in the race so I don't see it happening. Would be nice but it would take a heck of a lot more than Carrasco plus prospects to land Doc.

I love when people say "I know ppl who know ppl". Someone who knows ppl isn't posting on an internet blog.

Yeah, the Jays are 27-23...I'm not sure they'll trade Halladay with that record.

bap: Myers is a no. 2 starter in the same way Emilio Bonafacio is a leadoff hitter.

Obviously, yes, you could do a whole lot worse than Myers. And yes, I take back what I said about Park, because he's not a starter, period. But is the presence of someone like Myers going to be the difference between first place and second place? Absolutely not. The Phillies will almost certainly trade for a starting pitcher who is at least as capable as Myers - who, may I remind everyone yet aagin, is a bonafide mediocrity most of the time - and so long as Moyer can get himself back in gear, the rotation should be well enough off.

First thought when watching Bastardo live on TV for the first time, was that he looked like Odalis Perez.

Which isn't bad. Odalis Perez was a pretty effective starter for many years.

Santana? Not many Santana's out there and AB is not in that league. But, I could see him being a good major league pitcher down the road.

Still think it will be either Worley or Carpenter as the choice.

I would say let the young guys step up - but we just locked up pretty much every single impact player on our entire roster for the next 3 seasons, so its obviosuly win now mode, and that means go get someone who will help in the next 3 years, not in next 10.

if we didnt have everyone all locked up for those years than I would be all for siting back and letting our youngin's take care o business for better or worse...but thats just not the situation the Phils have put themselves in.

Haddon Heights Harv is Chooch's version of Davthom?

I smell a catcher fan boy war a-brewing!

p.Red: Nah, Haddon Heights Harv has never shivved a little girl for disrespecting Mr. Coste. That's the Rule of DavThom.

Yo, new thread

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