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Thursday, May 21, 2009


Wow, you would think that Amaro would be able to score better seats. This is a tough economy.

That's where officials usually sit.

Now that Happ is given the rotation spot, what are we trying to infer from Amaro scouting Worley? Moyer/Blanton's rotation spots are at risk?

i think we need something along the lines of Campaign Cheer to stop these HRs given up by Phillies pitchers...

how about: Campaign Knock Down!

Every time an opposing fly ball threatens to leave the park, all the fans do whatever they can to knock it down - blowing, fanning, sucking, whatever...

Photo caption: Big Beerleaguer is watching you (Amaro)!

Worley has pitched very well, no surprise he is on Amaro's radar. In fact, right now in terms of most likely to promoted to rotation I'd put it like this right now.

1. Rodrigo Lopez
2. Vance Worley
3. Drew Carpenter
4. Antonio Bastardo
5. Kyle Kendrick
6. Carlos Carrasco

Everybody do the Vance Dance to bring some rain, err, pitching to Philadelphia.

re: blog traffic

I think the situation speaks for itself JW. MetsBlog traffic blows Beerleaguer away... and look what happens? They need to shut the comment section down because of all the horrible, useless rabble that takes place. All of us here get carried away with nonsense as it is, and just imagine that x10 if there were that much more of us! Next thing ya know MacTonight is a professor at Harvard after all of his stellar social experimentation on the masses here - ha what a douche.

Worley looks to me like another soft tosser who pitches to contact. He probably has more upside than, say, KK or Andrew Carpenter. But he's certainly not posting the kind of eye-popping AA numbers which would lead me to believe he could come up to the majors and have early success.

Bastardo, on the other hand: eye-popping numbers. I'll be curious to see how he does at AAA. I know the scouts aren't ga-ga over the guy, but they weren't ga-ga over Happ either, and he has fared well so far. Results are results and, if he keeps having the same success at AAA that he has had at every other level, I don't know how anyone could conclude that he is anything other than a legitimate prospect.

Phils minor league teams struggling as per usual.

Carrasco horrendous line so far this season is very discouraging.

TNA- is that a request for WSBGM's to initiate Campaign Knock Down, aka How the hell does my fastball feel?

JW I meant it as a joke. I have no clue what that stadium looks like, I just wanted to get the first comment in.

I mean, the guy won his first 12 games in professional baseball and has soared all the way from low A to AAA in basically 2 years. His ERA this year is 1.82 at AA and, in 229 minor league innings, he is 16-7, with a 2.44 ERA, 258 strikeouts, 99 walks, and a 1.15 WHIP. He is either a pretty good pitcher or he's one lucky Bastardo.

Just saw that JW's favorite player, Jody Gerut, got dealt to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn, Jr. Very good deal for Milwaukee.

Is it possible other teams have asked about Worley and Ruben is taking a closer look?

my guess is escalona got the 9th today in preparation for sending him dowm to make room for mayberzuma. Or maybe it'll be park sent for a tuneup? We'll soon see.

BAP: He's not bad, but the career BB/9 of 4 might suggest command problems at higher levels. He's not young either.

When I talked to Chuck Lamar this winter, he said Bastardo is one of the players team inquire about most. He and Edgar Garcia.

CJ: I think that is precisely why Amaro was there.

Has Edgar Garcia made it stateside yet? It would be a shame if he misses a full year of development because of visa issues.

Is it possible he was also there to watch Harman, who, despite pedestrian numbers overall, has been hot over the last week? He hits RH and I think he's already on the 40 man. Might be trying to play the hot hand for the weekend series.


Unfortunately, I think your styling of Campaign Knock Down wouldn't have much 'punch' so to speak given that the fastest fastball amongst our starters goes 92mph tops (and that's with less accuracy).

I was thinking about inducing our own set of climate conditions for the opposing team; akin to opening the doors to Vets stadium when the opposing team was kicking field goals.

BAP: I thought the report on Worley was throwing absolute heat down in AA? Or maybe that was Knapp?

JW: Edgar Garcia is my favorite deep sleeper in the entire organization.

Lefty: How do we know he wasn't there to watch Tuffy Goosewurst?

BAP, Worley is not a soft-tosser by any means. He's not a high 90s guy but he can sit 93 with no problems. Worley is a polished college pitcher who was thought to be a fast track guy when he was drafted last year.

Knapp is the guy that can hit 97 when he needs to, Albert.

I'd be more curious to see if a bunch of other teams were scouting Worley...he could be a decent trade piece this summer.

clout - The question is whether Harman is a potential option (along with mayberry and ozuna) for a short-term RH bench bat. I'm assuming by the gosewisch comment you think he's not...

Harmon's an option for a call-up but he's not a great one...even with his recent hot streak. Mayberry is the best option as he can spot start for our OFs and not be a downgrade defensively. He's hit really well at AAA, increased his BB rate (a huge concern previously) and looks to be a legitimate 4th OF at some point in the next couple years because of that skill set). Ozuna is just a different word for Cairo.

Ozuna will most likely be the callup. We all know it.

By the way, we're on pace for 91 wins. Mets are on pace for 85. That'd be a comfortable September if it happened! :-D

peavy rejected the trade to the white sox.

To be sent back to the minors, I think Ozuna would have to pass through wavers. So, Mayberry it is.

Peavy is a prime example of why giving a player a no-trade clause is a bad idea. They HAVE to trade him because of his now they will have to take less to move him to a team that he deigns to play for.

Another example of this would be our very own Bobby Abreu...or Pat Burrell for all those times we tried to move him.

NEPP: Well, Worley may not meet the literal definition of a soft tosser but, based on his modest strikeout totals in college, he's clearly a finesse pitcher and not someone who blows people away.

clout: 23 isn't young? The typical Phillies rookie is about 26 or 26, and I'd venture to guess that the same is true around the major leagues. Bastardo is 3 years younger than Happ was when he got the call-up last year, and he's the same age that Cole Hamels was when he made the jump to the majors.

Peavy reportedly told the Padres that he would only accept a trade to the Phillies. The trade has been held up, however, because the Phillies don't want to part with Paul Bako.

Peavy was about to be traded for Aaron Poreda (BP 74, BA 63), Clayton Richards (Not ranked), and 2 players to named later. If the Phillies can't beat that...

We could easily beat that Dave...we'd have to get him to be willing to come here. He's probably not very interested in playing in Philly.

I wanted Ozuna to win the job over Cairo so I don't have a problem if he is called up. I wouldn't mind seeing what Mayberry can do at the ML level either. I would like to see Taschner go and Escalona stay with the team until Romero comes back, but they will probably just send Escalona down.

Mets are struggling right now. We need to play the Phillies again to get us rolling...

San Diego having their fire sale early this year, I see. Giles must have his bags packed and ready.

Another impressive win today, and as bad as Blanton's wall-slamming fifth inning was, it probably made the win even more satisfying. The phils were able to very calmly and quickly regroup and make a statement, almost like, 'oh, you've decided you want to actually play? Okay. Here's six more runs.'

Not even last year's team played with this much confidence on the road. It's not really swagger, but it's very TCB. Yankee Stadium will be an excellent test of how well that holds up. If they can win 2 of these games over the weekend, the Mets ought to be crapping their pants.

Ozuna is old, has no power, and would not be a very exciting call-up. He IS an appreciably better hitter than either Miguel Cairo or Eric Bruntlett. But that's not exactly setting the bar very high.

Dave: The other issue is those PTBNLs. It's possible they include top prospects like Tyler Flowers or Gordon Beckham. If that were the case, the White Sox offer would be close to as good as what the Phillies could/would reasonably offer.

If not, then yes, the Phillies could certainly offer a deal the Padres would accept, given what they accepted today. The issue, of course, is moot because Peavy won't waive his NTC to come to Philly.

And because the Phillies have no desire to pick up a 52 million dollar tab over the next 3 and a half years for Peavy. Can't say I blame them.

It wasn't Flowers or Beckham...the key players were the ones named.

I didn't understand why Peavy would except an offer to the White Sox because:

1. Guillen is a nut bag and I am sure he is difficult to tolerate even if he is generally supportive of his players in the end
2. Comiskey Park (or whatever the name is now) is a launching pad.
3. Reinsdorf has generally never been known for his gracious financial treatment of players.
4. Other teams will likely offer a better shot at making the playoffs and winning a World Series.
5. Chicago is balls cold in the winter.

Peavy will almost certainly get moved but the move to the White Sox didn't make sense for personal sense to Peavy. He is the driver's seat.

One thing I am glad is that Gillick stopped the utter ridiculous policy of giving no-trade clauses on his long-term deals. Single worst thing Wade did hands down.

I would be floored if the Phils went after Peavy because they really did spend alot this offseason. Plus, many of the reasons I just mentioned about coming to Chicago apply to Philly.

The only difference is that Cholly is probably much easier to tolerate and that the Phils probably have a slightly better chance of making the playoffs again than the White Sox.

Our very own Phils Suck ladies and gentlemen, a week ago:

"We're taking our division back. You know, the one we've been on top of more over the last three years than ANY TEAM IN THE MAJORS IN THEIR RESPECTIVE DIVISION. Yea, that one. The NL East. It's ours, and we're taking it back."

Is Phils Suck the reason Cerrone shut down comments?

The big reason Peavy reportedly nixed the trade is because he wants to stay in the NL and play for a contender - although I'm sure the other factors mattered.

metsblog update: the public comment section will be realigned so that only a trusted group of readers can respond to one another, [matthew cerrone] and the topic at hand.

Funny, I remember that comment. My reaction at the time was: really?

beerleaguer update: I did not read the 2-3rd page of the last thread.

So were in the NL and a contender. Considering Towers won't be able to get what he wants, is Kendrick, Carrasco, Carpenter and Donald, enough?

Matthew Cerrone may run a blog that gets more hits than BL, but he is an egotistical douche who thinks the blog is all about "Matt Cerrone". Give me a break.

Phils Suck: Go back to chokers heaven please

Adam Eaton's night against the Yanks:

4.2 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

His ERA now stands at 8.56, or almost a full run higher than Jamie Moyer's. He is just that bad.

On Eaton: he better not be getting a xmas card from gillick this year. I don't know how someone could be so wrong about one player, as gillick is about eaton. 30 million dollars? It might as well be monopoly money

Ruben started right behind home and proceeded to sit in 2 different seats after that. I think he has the run of the place. Harmon looks very weak to me not sure what the fuss is about him. I walked right by Bastardo in the concourse while grabbing a beer that was cool. Taylor is enormous but has a slow bat.

"Is Kendrick, Carrasco, Carpenter and Donald enough?"

This is basically a trade of Carrasco and Donald for Peavy. The other 2 guys are just AAA bodies, with no real value. Under normal circumstances, the Padres would laugh in Amaro's face with that kind of offer. But in these circumstances, I'd be surprised if the Padres can do any better than that.

Peavy has the Padres over a barrel in the same way that Bobby Abreu had Gillick over a barrel. With a FNTC, Peavy has unilateral authority to dictate which team or teams he can be traded to. If the Padres are stupid enough to trade him under these circumstances, they are not likely to get anything approaching fair value (we all remember the Abreu trade, I assume?). The key will be in getting Peavy to include the Phillies on his short list of teams to which he'll accept a trade. In the past, he did not have them on his list.

First 3 batters doubled off Eaton tonite. Yanks starter got hurt in the first, need 8-2/3 from their pen. Means their pen win be tired tomorrow, and their hitters will be tired from circling the bases on Eaton.

I fear the banished soul's of Metsblog will now flock here to unleash their bile.

Great segment on Daily News Live today on the Phils farm talent. I'm excited to see the next post- "Mayberry Summoned to Big Apple."

What happened to Joba?

Phlipper: Line drive off his knee.

Steve Noworyta, Director of the Phillies minor leagues system, said on CSN today that Worley could break into the big league rotation as soon as next year.

"[T]ired from circling the bases . . ."

Adam Eaton earning a small portion of that contract for Philly.

It would be great if we can tee off on some Yankee pitching. Definitely a good test in terms of the quality of the opposing starters this weekend. Good thing we have that tough right handed bat to slide into the DH spot against those lefties.

Yes but on what team?

Yanks used only four relievers tonight. Not bad considering the number of innings they had to pitch.

Reme: Noworyta even said he could come up as soon as this year but quickly backed off and said next year more likely.

Don't all the visitors to SNY Pepsi Metsblog see that there are a ton of Mets blogs for them to post their witty remarks other than Cerrone's one?

No callup for tomorrow as Stairs/Dobbs will be the DH. Possible for the weekend against Petitte/Sabathia though.

That makes little sense. Mayberry would be an obvious choice, and he would upgrade the outfield. Let RBIanez DH for 3 games. Do we need 8 arms in the pen? If we do, don't we need to score some runs?

Hugh - are you telling me that you would rather have Mayberry's bat instead of Stairs' bat in the lineup against Burnett?

No, I'm not. I would like to add a righty for the series, though.

Since Ibanez is the anti-Burrell and people were jumping all over my 25-30 HR's and 100 RBI prediction for Ibanez and the baseball "geniuses" were hiding behind their stats. As they do everything else, since I can say pretty surely, that people here give baseball "opinions" base soley on stats and nothing else to base their judgements on. After weeks and months of getting told my "eyes weren't good enough" and that I was a "fool" concerning Ibanez. And people on here still to this day SLURP Burrell for all he is worth. So on this off night, I thought it would be fun to see what the "elite" said about this pickup on Dec. 12th, when it took place.....

Let's start with our fearless "leader" JW ( Sorry JW, but I am taking everyone down in this firestorm)

JW said :" I'm in total agreement with the majority of posters that said this deal makes very little logical sense...To borrow what's been written on, "it makes no sense to sign someone with similar skills that is less productive, older, and almost as, if not equally, costly."

And my favorite.."Very typical Phillies free agent signing"

So my point exactly. Getting your opinion from a stat site.And if by "typical" you meant good, then Yes, your right.

PhillyFriar: "I'll support Ibanez, just like I support every Phillies player. But I refuse to support this signing, because it's a completely asinine move."

GM-Carson: "Once again today, MVPTommyD is dictating the course of this discussion. He may not be an idiot, but he is saying some real dumb stuff and obviously doesn't want to listen to facts or other's points of view...ignore him!"

B-Mac: "I think Ibanez is a good player, just not the right player for this team"

Clout:" I'm still waiting for you to provide evidence that Ibanez is a better player than Burrell. It should be amusing."

Finally, let's Refresh Ibanez's stats to the minute...

39 Games, 10 2B, 15 HR's, 40 RBI's, .349 AVG, .410 OBP, .724 SLUG, 1.134 OPS


As has been said before, I think people were more displeased with the length and size of Ibanez's contract given his age rather than any predicted performance disadvantage compared to PtB.

Worley is a kid to keep your eye one. He is a ground-ball machine, with tremendous ground ball to fly ball out ratios.

He has also showed great command as well. He is basically what Kyle Kendrick used to be (when KK could still throw strikes), with a better fastball and an ability to get some swing-and-misses.

Dallas Green has also been down there, to watch him. They aren't there, to see Gus Milner.

Carpenter had a nice outing today, giving up 0 ER, over 6 IP. Majewski, after a great start, has cooled considerably (although bad defense did him in today).

It must be the water in Allentown. Jason Donald and Lou Marson are WAY too talented of hitters, to be scuffling like they have been. Carrasco is 0-5 (although he pitched more then well enough to win a few games early on in the season; but got no support). I think Weitzel may have been on to something, with his post a few days ago. Maybe AAA is just cursed, for the Phils.

And, I think Kendrick would still have some value on the trade front, with other teams. He is still very young and very cheap. He showed 2 years ago, he can be effective in the big leagues as a starter and win big games in a pennent race. Plus, the success of a Gavin Floyd in Chicago, may help him as well (after his struggles in Philly). Not that, KK was in Floyd's league as a prospect. But, a change in scenery, might just be what he needs to get back on the ball as a pitcher. I could see a San Diego taking KK as part of a Philly deal for Peavy. Would probably have to give up 2 really strong prospects in that package though (with either Taylor or Dom Brown, I am sure being the top dog).

Of course, when Peavy has all the leverage (and teams know SD basically has to deal him to somebody), the price may go much lower then it might usually go, for a starter the caliber of Peavy. Of course, Philly actually has to show interest and present a proposal, which we haven't heard anything about yet, have we?

MVP: What's with citing all these statistics to support your argument that Ibanez is having a great year? I thought statistics didn't mean anything. In fact, didn't you just get done chastising those who use nothing more than stats to make their arguments?

I will give you this: with Ibanez now 1/12th of the way through his contract, you are on pace to be spot-on correct about the wisdom of the signing. And it's nice to see that you've remained humble & haven't let that success go to your head. I'm so impressed by your humility that I won't even bring up all those other Ruben Amaro deals which you vigorously defended, like the Jamie Moyer, Chan Ho Park, and Miguel Cairo signings.

Denny- I always love your posts, but do you get paid by the comma?

Also, what exactly is an "anti-Burrell?" Burrell hit for power and drew lots of walks, but had a low batting average, was slow, and was defensively poor but with a good arm. The "anti-Burrell" would be someone who is fast, hits for high average, has little power, draws few walks, and is good on defense but with a weak arm. If you want the "anti-Burrell," then go trade for Juan Pierre. Raul Ibanez actually possesses many of the same skills that Burrell possessed. The only major differences are that he hits for much higher average and doesn't draw as many walks.

MVP: I agree completely with BAP, and I think you need to put into context just how unbelievable what Raul is doing right now. The man is playing the best baseball of his career at age 36, hitting against pitchers he's never faced before.

I agree with my earlier statement that you quoted, that "I think Ibanez is a good player, just not the right player for this team." I never said the Phillies were signing a bad player, this was no Eaton signing. But the Phillies had a left handed dominant line-up already, and quality left handed pitching had been the bane of the Phillies existence for many years past. And with the exception of last year, Raul had been about a career.245 hitter against lefties. There was no way to anticipate he'd be hitting .341 against left handed pitching this year.

Further helping him out has been the reemergence of Pedro Feliz, so that Raul actually had pitches to hit. When Raul was struggling tremendously last year, the six hole hitters whether Werth or Vic did not get pitches to hit. But with the 7 spot in the line-up no longer acting as a black hole, Raul had the benefit for many weeks of getting to get pitches to hit. If Pedro was playing like 2008 Pedro, I promise you Raul would be hitting for a much lower average.

B-Mac: Raul has done a good job hitting 6 or 3 this year regardless of the protection. Though last year it was tough for him hitting 5 without when Werth and Shane had to double time for the Mariners.

Denny: I find it hard to believe Kendrick holds any value whatsoever. Other teams have scouts, and know how to evaluate players with numbers beyond W-L. They can see he doesn't have the stuff or the numbers to be an adequate major league pitcher right now.

Wow, tommy has proven once again why he is a founding member of the Sir Alden Trio.

tommy boy, do you think Ibanez will hit .349 for the entire season?

Do you think Ibanez will hit .349 with for the entire length of his contract?

Whether you think so or not, that's what your post implies.

Of course, if Ibanez regresses (I hope not) and goes into a slump for a month, I wonder what you'll be posting then.

"There was no way to anticipate he'd be hitting .341 against left handed pitching this year."

Correction: YOU didn't anticipate he would be hitting that well. The elite didn't anticipate that we would perform as well as he had. Tommy did.

If Ibanez were struggling, you all would be crowing about how right you are and that Tommy is "Sir Alden" or some such nonsense. However, when you are proven wrong, you backpedal with the "no one could have predicted..." argument, followed by the "do you expect that he'll keep this up all season" argument (something I've been hearing since the second week in April, and all last season about Tampa, for that matter).

That would make his pre-season assessment correct and JW, Clout, etc... wrong. Far be it from any elite posters to admit that baseball is more than the numbers that they copy and paste. When they're right, they're right, and when they're wrong, they'll spin it to give the illusion that they're right.

For all the "Sir Alden" talk about front office apologists, I find that BL has FAR more regular posters who will bemoan anything that the front office does, whether or not it turns out well. Reminds me of "Comic Book Guy" of Simpsons fame. I can't wait until the Phillies make their annual mid-level SP trade so I can scroll down through the predictable responses of sabermetrics and ridiculous arguments that all seem to sound exactly the same: "I'm a balding, overweight internet fan on the internet who knows more about this game than Ed Wade, Pat Gillick, Ruben Amaro and anyone other professional who does this for a living."

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