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Wednesday, April 22, 2009

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Did Hittin' Season start early this year? Supposed to be in the 80s this weekend, so it sure seems like it.

Good to see Marson get a start despite Coste having a pretty impressive game last night.

Anyone taking bets on the likelihood that Luis VizcaĆ­no finds his way to Philly?

BAP: In Re career turnarounds at age 34

How about Chris Coste. Maybe Coste is passing along some of the old man recreation savvy to Ruiz (like Moyer with Phils pitching staff). And now that I think about it, how about Moyer?

Of course, I don't seriously believe any of this, but I'd say Coste had a rather drastic career turnaround at roughly the same age.

It is possible, however, that Ruiz is now making adjustments that he should have/could have many years earlier. He might see the end of the road and knows that if he wants to be a starter, not a defensive replacement for his last few years, he has to become more patient.

Not sure you can say Coste had a career turnaround at 33/34.

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Chris-Coste.shtml

He's always hit.

Oops, that should be Feliz instead of Ruiz above.

Mac Tonight: With the way the Phils bench looks right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jose Vizcaino show up sometime soon (and not as a coach).

Parker: Yeah, what sophist said. Coste didn't get a chance to play in the majors until he was 34. But his career minor league track record pretty convincingly shows that he was a good hitter long before that.

Sophist, some of the more cynical among us would say that Coste's hitting prowess in indy leagues doesn't count.

I for one, agree with you, as his AA and AAA numbers would indicate.

What's the weather like tonight? MIL broadcast talking of rain.

"We can't exactly bitch [about Feliz] just now, but we can certainly start anticipating his future failures."

So what's your point, curt? That it's out of line for me to point out that a guy whose OPS hasn't exceeded .717 in any of the last 4 seasons is pretty damn likely to end up there again -- notwithstanding his present .950 clip? When a poster points out that Cole Hamels is not likely to have an 11.17 ERA for the full season, we call it living in the real world. When a poster says that Pedro Feliz is not likely to hit .350 or draw the 100+ walks he's on pace to draw, that poster gets taken to task for "anticipating [Feliz's] future failure."

Feliz will DEFINITELY keep up this .350+ batting average for the entire season.

Actually, Sophist, in looking at Coste's stops along the way, he was in the Indians' system in 2002 hitting .318 at Buffalo. I wonder who their backup catchers have been in the intervening time period?

He was in the Brew Crew's in 2004, hitting .296. I wonder who their backups have been since then?

Oh, and it looks like Jaon Kendall is done. the 35 year old has a .118 .247 .147 line this season.

why did they start this game so soon? looks like there's a good chance of a rain delay an inning in, and a night through the pen.

Don't write him off so quickly AWH...he did hit a whopping .246 last year to go with his 72 OPS+.

Louuu!

Marson with the pickoff!!! NICE.

Love it, Lou!

So yeah, Marson might be a decent player.

NEPP, I was having fun merely mimicking JW's incendiary comments about Coste in an earlier thread.

NEPP - Maybe. But that was probably a botched play by Hart.

Rollins is still batting under .200 and should not be swinging at 3-1 pitches, especially in this weather.

Rollins still in a bit of a funk...Vic seems to be turning around at least.

OK, for all you Ibanez defenders, what Cameron just did on Vic's single is what Raul SHOULD have done on that line drive on Sunday.

Cameron = smart play.

Ibanez = boneheaded play.

Utley may be hitting .386 now, but it's not going to be pretty when he reverts to his norm...

AWH -- Coste still played at the AAA level from 2000 on, and his numbers in MLB-affiliated minor league play from 2000 through the 2005 season (when he was an International League All Star)were generally as good or better than they were in the Northern League -- and better numbers than Coste had in his first professional year in the long-gone independent Prairie League in 1995 -- the latter circuit with which I have great familiarity, having been a part-owner of a Prairie League team during the 1996 and 1997 seasons.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Chris-Coste.shtml

Inside/Outside the Parker -- Picking up on your "BTW" post about Jaramillo last night -- what a difference a day makes. This afternoon -- Jaramillo took the collar -- beginning the day by looking at three called strikes in his first at bat, and then going 0 for 4 with another strikeout.

And Paulino made a throwing error and gave up three stolen bases withoiut trowing anyone out.

But you gotta love those Pirates wins over the Fish this week.

AWH - Don't disagree, but that ball to Cameron was nowhere near as close.

They switched the Hart out to a CS.

curt - Utley isn't hitting that far above his passed his numbers these last few years or his ceiling.

Sophist, we agree, but my point was that Cameron rightly judged that it wasn't worth trying to make a play in that situation, expecially in light of what Vic would do if the ball got by him.

His BA, that is.

davethom, ummmm, were you assuming I disagree with you?

So you're saying that a former gold glover center fielder is better than Ibanez in the field...good to know.

Baseball in April. Love it.

AWH -- Not at all -- I figured you were simply anticipating some deprecatory remark someone like NEPP or Parker to the effect that Coste's independent league numbers mean little. I simply wanted to make the point -- as someone else did before I could get my post down -- that Coste's numbers in AAA and the small amount of time he spent in AA during the six seasons from 2000 through 2005 were generally better than Coste's numbers were with the independent Northern League Fargo-Moorhead Red Hawks during the four seasons from 1996 through 1999 -- and for the independent Prairie League Brandon (Manitoba) Grey Owls during his first professional season -- 1995 -- but you have to go to the Phillies media guide to get those latter stats, because they are not on the Baseball Cube. [They might be on some other site, however.]

sophist - That clears it up. If a guy is hitting .090 points above his career number we pretend it will last forever, but if a guy is .100 above his career number we constantly point out the improbability of it. Has nothing to do with the identity of the guys involved, it's that additional ~.010.

I think it ironic that davthom thinks I despise Chris Coste when I was one of his biggest supporters the last 3 seasons. I'm fine with him as the backup as long as he can carry his weight. If Marson beats him out for the spot, that's just how baseball is...its nothing against Coste.

We DO NOT bash Utley.

curt

Since age 26

Utley
.291
.309
.332
.292
.372

Feliz
.227
.253
.247
.276
.250
.244
.253
.249
.359

Given recent history and their ceilings, who's more likely to hit closer to their current rate? Utley is hitting .080 his avg last year; Feliz is hitting .110 above it. Utley is hitting .040 his ceiling (which is his career high to date); Feliz is hitting .080 above his. Utley's fall to his career norms involves hitting a nice BA for the rest of the year. He just won't slg .670.

Besides, Feliz has had 38 AB; Utley 43. This spiraling decline will take all of 4 games.

There we go, Jimmy!!!

First Phils game all year to go the first three innings with no runs.

Raul. Lucky bounce and a sweet throw.

IBANEZ with the throw, wow!

Ibanez has a surprisingly good arm...

AWH/Davethom: I think my half serious point was lost amidst the ever present Chris Coste hysteria.

I also mentioned Moyer as a guy who reinvented himself at a late age. I probably should have made that a separate post without any mention of Coste, at least if I wanted it to get any notice.

Regardless of whether you consider Coste's minor league career as evidence of his "success" in MLB, I think that Moyer certainly qualifies.

Ibanez making a great play. That makes us "Beerleaguer elite" very unhappy.

AWH - how about that play by Cameron?

Parker, it's amazing how some players bring out the posts. Who doesn't? Vic? The only guy who questioned Vic was PhillR, who quietly disappeared once Vic went on a tear last year.

Yes, I actively hope that certain players fail...we spoke of this at the last BL Elite meeting.

Vic plays hard and makes the most of his talent...its hard to bash that...even when he does make the occasional boneheaded play...same with Utley. Ibanez seems cut from the same mold so far...very impressed by him.

Oh, and while we are talking about former Phillies catchers, Rod "The Bod" Barajas just hit a HR.

For those crunching numbers, an interesting comparison (both offensive and defensive statistics) exists between Barajas and Coste's numbers last season.

sophist - I can't argue your numbers. I get it now.

NEPP -- The beautiful thing about the entire discussion about Coste -- or Marson -- is that this is major league baseball -- and all that matters is performance. Personally, I believe that Coste will perform -- roughly as he has for the for the past four games -- during which he has hit .333. Well -- maybe not quite .333 -- but around .300. We'll see.

But what really has amused me since Marson was brought up is the way that people on Beerleaguer -- shockingly led by JW himself -- who believe that Marson is ready to stay in the big leagues right now -- with one game in AAA -- and perhaps most importantly -- Marson has had only 95 games above the Class A level in his career -- after having spent three straight seasons in Class A ball.

To be clear -- Marson looks like a particularly mature guy for being only 23 (in June) years old -- athletic, cool and deliberate at the plate, and he doesn't look spooked behind the plate either.

But all that is not to say that he is ready for a permanent gig with the Phillies -- and I don't think he is. Let's see how he does with most of a season at Allentown -- and a September callup. That is what he should have -- and likely what the Phillies have planned for him.

But the fawning that I have seen on Beerleaguer and heard exists at CBP for Marson is -- from my perspective -- ridiculous. I mean -- yes, the guy has had a few hits in his three big league games -- but to emphasize the tiny sample we're talking about here -- Marson's batting average just went down 71 points after his last at bat.

"Vic plays hard and makes the most of his talent...its hard to bash that"

The same isn't true of Coste, Feliz, Ibanez?

Personally I dont want Marson to stay up unless he gets 400 ABs...he needs the reps at this point. If he's the lower end of a Platoon with Ruiz then there is no point to keep him up on the MLB team. He has to earn it though.

curt - It really doesn't matter. All Feliz needs to do is go 0/16 and suddenly he's hitting .254. 4 or 5 games with 1 or 2 hits total.

Sophist, I didn't say that. I dont really think any player on our team dogs it...UC doesnt allow it as he clearly showed by benching Rollins last year.

dt73 - What makes your fawning especially loathesome is that you make it sound like every other person in the history of cathing professional baseball is so less talented than Coste that they all should be kissing his cleats.

I am sorry for telling you this, but there are catchers, even some who have caught for the Phillies, who were/are better than Chris Coste.

Oh, NEPP. I thought you were giving an example as to why Feliz brings out the posts and Vic doesn't. You said Vic plays hard, which made me think that was your explanation.

From what I have seen of Marson, he appears to be superior to Coste and Ruiz, both offensively and defensively.

If he is indeed better in those two categories (it wouldn't take much), then why not keep him as #1?

What do you have to be a grizzled minor league vet at catcher to be "ready"?

So what is Blanton's average FB velocity anyway? I seem to remember it being a bit higher than 88 mph (what's he at tonight). Isn't he a 91-92 mph guy usually?

blecchh

davCoste27 must have a lot of time to post tonight considering he is watching Marson catch tonight

Also the majority of people have just said the wanted Marson to get the bulk of the reps now while he is up. Not stay up at the expense of Coste when Ruiz is healthy.

I/O Parker
Everyone knows that the model for catcher is Crash Davis. Anyone else dishonors the baseball gods.

.


evidently

Thanks Sophist...I should have thought to check Fangraphs...hell, I even have a fangraphs account. So he's basically where he should be...hmm.

I love Ruiz b/c he got it done for the Phils last season, but that doesn't mean that I think he is "special" outside of my sentimental attachment.

Sentimental attachment only gets you so far when you are a .220 hitter and there is a guy who can do it better with the bat, and as good with the glove.

BTW: "The Bod" Barajas just hit is second HR of the night.

It sucks as Blanton is pitching his arse off and they won't give him any run support...this from a team averaging almost 6 runs a game coming into tonight.

"Trading cards"
McCarthy's so lame

C'mon Joe; get your own run support.

NEPP: But Braden Looper's a Cy Young candidate, didn't you hear?

He has pitched well in his outings thus far for MIL, but all good things must/should come to an end.

Truth Injection -- JW disparaged Coste and then said that when Ruiz comes off the DL, the Phillies would have a tough decision to make -- ie., whether to get rid of Coste and keep the green Marson in the big leagues or to send Marson down to AAA -- where he has never played until hius one game there this year. And take a look at Parker's last post just above in this thread -- Parker wants Marson to stay with the Phillies right now -- and to be fair to Parker, he has a lot of company on Beerleaguer who have the same opinion. others think that Marson should play most of the time until Ruiz comes back -- and as I said recently on a prior thread -- gvien all the unjustified fawning over Marson -- yeah, that "f" word fits -- I would welcome that -- because Marson would have more time to show that he does not belong in the Show long term -- at least at this point.

Andy -- What makes your non-sensical post above rather offensive is that your post's descriptions of mine seriously misrepresent their substance. However, my annoyance with you is moderated by the fact that you obviously have some reading/cognitive skill deficits which likely are not your fault.

He looks like a CY candidate against us right now...Looper sucks, they need to start putting some hits together.

NEPP: Where was that meeting held,or is that info off limit to us peons? Do you and bap fly in at your own expense,or does the stimulus plan cover that. How exclusive is the membership?

NEPP, Parker, Truth and Andy -- Marson's BA just went down another 54 points with that last at bat -- but I will say this -- the guy is being deliberate at the plate -- not going after the first pitch.

"This afternoon -- Jaramillo took the collar -- beginning the day by looking at three called strikes in his first at bat, and then going 0 for 4 with another strikeout.

And Paulino made a throwing error and gave up three stolen bases withoiut trowing anyone out. "


dt - I think I read the above quote correctly. The paraphrase is something like: "Because these guys are young and were, even for a short while in the Phillies system, they must stink."

Or were you pointing out the hazards of making judgments from small sample sizes?

Watching on the Brewers broadcast, not sure if the Phils crew caught this -- Rollins wipes his right hand off on his pants as he gets up to throw that ball.

davCoste: The point you miss in your Coste fawning- and yeah it fits- is that he has been scuffling for the most part so far this year. Marson has been fine. It does make it a tough decision. That doesn't mean that people think Marson should get the gig. It just means they will need to at least consider the option of leaving Marson up.

Also the apparent wish of yours that Marson fail is really silly. Yes it would help your boy, but it hurts any trade value Marson has should it come to that.

Corey Hart's pretty fast.

Not the greatest Strike to Ball ratio for Blanton tonight: 102 pitches, 59 Strikes, 43 Balls.

I'm a littler concerned here if Braun walks.

Fielder is due, and Blanton (who also may be due) may be the doctor to deliver.

curt: You mean like Burrell reverted to his norm after his slow start in 2007 when you said he was washed up?

Dodged a bullet there with Fielder. I suppose it's a little early for Eyre.

Andy -- As I wrote in that post -- and as you apparently missed -- again -- I was expressly responding and referring to Parker's jab on last night's game chat thread -- where he called Coste a "rally killer." It was a "BTW" post by Parker to which I was responding -- so my comments about Jaramillo and Paulino (he of such a crappy attitude that the Pirates gave up on him and didn't even bring him back to the big leagues after he came off the DL last season) -- were "tongue in cheek" -- and a contextual reference to Parker's "BTW" post from last night. Is that beyond your comprehension, Andy? Perhaps.

nuts

Well, makes no difference now. Easy to say after the fact that Blanton was left in too long.

Well considering both the Pirates and Phillies have dumped Paulino for attitude issues...there probably is some legitimacy to that.

Yup...still gets that ever important Quality Start though...as if it matters.

Braden Looper: 2009 NL Cy Young Award Winner

I don't know how anyone can make a fair judgement on Lou Marson, being that he has only played in four major league games and as of now has whopping 12 major league at bats.

This is not to say that he isn't ready, but I'm not sure how Inside/Outside the Parker can say that Marson looks to be superior than both Ruiz and Coste at the plate and defensively. It is far to early to tell that.

You could find several four-game or 12-at bat samples from both Ruiz and Coste's careers that would suggest that they are far better than the realistically are. Keep that in mind.

The "BTW" was not lost on me. In fact, it is amazing to me that your opinion of others is so small that you need to denigrate Jaramillo's good day with a reference to a collar today. I do not understand why you, personally, feel threatened if some other catcher is thought to be better than Chris Coste.

Really. When Johnny Bench was playing did a car run over your dog or something?

NEPP - It matters. Phils are still in this game.

Truth -- I have no "wish (for) Marson (to) fail." I am simply a bit tired of all of those folks -- and you, Andy, Tray, NEPP, and JW at the head of that class -- of listening to how Marson should be kept in Philadelphia and how Coste allegedly has been "scuffling this year." Coste had a hurt hamstring for most of ST -- and has played in only 9 games (with only 26 at bats) thus far. Coste has hit .333 over his last 4 games, and is tied for the team lead in doubles (4). Scuffling at the plate? That is what Marson is doing tonight so far.

Logically you're right...but it seems like we're getting killed. Offense took the night off it seems.

Incidentally, I'm in the "Marson needs to go back to Allentown to get more ABs camp." But I do react to the single focus enthusiasm shown by dt. It's simply bizarre that nothing else in all of baseball, apparently, is as important as the evangelization of every fan into the Church of Coste.

Really. Just talk about ANYTHING else.

Parker: That's a pretty amazing statement. Just how much have you seen of Marson?

Here's a real chance for Raul.

The Brewers would almost be better off if Braun were still playing third base.

Here we go...Raul can tie it up now.

"Evangelizing of every fan into the Church of Coste."

I'm probably outside of the BL "Elite" clique, but I'm calling that a classic description.

Damn

They are hitting the ball, they just can't catch any breaks in placement.

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