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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

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I say pass of Tasch. He'd likely to more harm than good.

I'm very happy to see Werth knocking the snot out of the ball since his early spring injury concerns.

Lidge looks fine. I saw him pitch on Saturday and he was snapping off sliders with consistency.

Jack Taschner, career vs. LH hitters:

.288 BA .349 OB .409 SLG.

No thanks.

The amount of 'discomfort' stories we have heard this past month, in phils camp and out, tend to have me believe that its usually nothing more than dusting the cobwebs out so to speak.

For Lidge, he went through more last preseason, so I trust that he knows how to handle. As always, a few missed games in April is surely taken in return for a healthy rest of the (post)season.

Taschner will certainly not start too many debates on BL. Thumbs down across the board.

Especially when they have been connected to the likes of Ohman and Beimel most of the offseason, who have very good vsLHB numbers.

Anyone remember the last bum lefty we got from SF last year? Steve Kline... he sure made an impact.

Good point phaithful. Last year in ST, Lidge and concerns coming back from surgery were much more concerning that the "discomfort" talk we're hearing so much this year. Hopefully the lessened severity means these guys are just playing themselves back into shape.

I think we hear way more about bumps, bruises, and soreness now-a-days than we have in the past because of the media coverage. Newspapers, bloggers, and sports television are all competing to report the "latest news" even if it's really not news at all.

On Schilling, a quick glance of his season stats revealed a few interesting stats:

3 seasons winning 20 or more games.

3 seasons striking out 300 or more batters.

3 seasons with ERA under 3 with min 200 innings pitched.

2 season with 10 or more complete games.

With the over use of relief pitchers, starters winning 20 games in a season or pitching any complete games, are now a rarity. In my mind, Schilling should be a first ballot HOFer. People hate him because he's opinionated. I usually agree with his opinions.

Phils want to pay $1 million. Ohman wants #2 million. On a team with a $132 million payroll (plus minor leagues, front office staff, etc.), what's the difference?

I don't have the statistics in front of me, but I believe Ohman has struck out Howard and Utley a combined total of 10,483 times. It's worth $500,000 just to keep him off the Mets roster.

Scott Eyre is completely unproven and I worry about Romero's effectiveness. Paying Ohman $2 million is a no brainer. You could even structure a 2-year deal where he makes $1 million this year and gets a pay raise in 2010. The Phils have been shopping for a lefty reliever every spring for the past 3 years. With Ohman and Romero signed through 2010, we can take next year off.

The Ks and CGs should help Schill's cause. Who throws 10 CGs in a season anymore?

The focus on his win total is going to drive me completely nuts. I don't think he gets in on the first ballot, but I think he will get in eventually.

I'd like to revisit a passing concern in one of yesterday's posts. Is everyone comfortable with relying on Jason Werth to supplement some of the power numbers we lost with Burrell? Unless Ibanez is saving it for games that matter, I don't see him making up much of that loss of production. Werth hasn't ever been considered a "power guy" either.

Completely unrelated, but I just had the nostalgia bug bite me from--of all places--a text-to-speech 'book' for kids who are blind or low vision (the goal of this 'book' is to teach kids about words that contain the syllable "at"). He or she who designed this game MUST have been a die-hard phan...

Look at the bat!

"Scott Eyre is completely unproven"

Well, sure, if you forget about his 13 seasons in the majors then we know next to nothing about the guy.

That being said, I'm in favor of bringing Ohman on board. Maybe they're waiting to see if they can dump some salary (Stairs/Jenkins) first?

Continuation from the previous thread (Shilling HOF)

"Schilling gets in because he WON with Boston"

Do Lowe and Wakefield get in too? Wakefield had better numbers than Curt to lead the Sox to their '07 championship.

"I'm sure that some HofFamers didn't win Cy Youngs...Don Sutton? Goose Gossage? Juan Marichal? Phil Niekro? Jim Bunning?"

Sutton and Niekro are 300 game winners. They deserve to be inducted on the merit of their career numbers.

Juan Marichal: played five less years than Curt and won 27 more games, plus had a 2.89 career era (compared to 3.46)

Jim Bunning: played five less years than Curt and won 9 more games, lower career era, perfect game, etc...

I won't argue Gossage because I don't think he deserves to be in the Hall either. Still, I have to accept the fact that the HOF has transformed from the shrine of the greats to the place where the very good stand alongside the greats.

scott eyre is completely unproven? 12 years in the league with a career ERA+ over 100, say what?

Spartan: haha that is awesome. I question their phandom since they could have sealed the "at" family with 'Look at Pat the Bat'

ZP: You're right, only 12 ML seasons for Eyre. The jury's still out.

JR: the problem with signing Ohman for more than 1 year is that, prior to this offseason market, Ohman would command something of the 3yr 9-10mil type of contract.

The reason i beieve he is wanting/settling for a 1 year deal at this point is to just get it over with and hope that 09-10 is back to what it was in 07-08. Promising to underpay him for longer than 1 year is hardly a solution that he would take.

JR -

Very good point. The Phils are being "penny wise and pound foolish" by not giving Ohman the extra $1 million he wants. Another veteran lefthander out of the bullpen may make all the difference in the world for the Phils. What do the Phils do if anything happens to Eyre? They need another lefthanded reliever and Ohman may be the best available for the price.

In the grand scheme of things, signing Ohman for $2 million is a bargain compared to what the Phils paid for the likes of Garcia and Eaton. I realize that comparing starters and relievers is an apples and oranges type of thing, but Ohman won't have to do very much do do more for the Phils than Garcia and Eaton did in their combined Phillie tenures. What's more, if the Phils keep Jenkins, or even trade him and pay the majority of his salary, they will be paying an aweful lot more for a pinch hitter than they will for a solid reliever who will probably see a lot of time out of the bullpen.

The Taschner talks may have more to do with the Phils unloading players than trying to acquire the best available lefthanded reliever. The Giants are supposed to be looking for another catcher and I don't get the feeling that Paulino figures very far into the Phils' future plans.

The Phils have a lot of spare parts this year, including a lot of older model parts. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Phils bundle some of these parts and trade the bundle for a starting pitcher, the likes of Halladay or Peavy.

Stay well.

Typo -

Ohman won't have to do very much to do more for the Phils...

Jeltz: yeah, maybe this is the year that Eyre kid can really show he belongs in the bigs.

So some HOF pitchers deserve to be in for counting stats. Others deserve to be in because they were really good in other areas. Others are in and don't deserve to be in. It's fair to say then that Schilling may be in one of those categories.

I'd take 10 years of Schilling over 23 years of Sutton any day. Most of the time Sutton wasn't even the best pitcher on his own team.

JW- Good post on Lidge- I don't thing we have seen much of him this spring training.
I hope that just means they are trying not to use up any unnecessary wear and tear and save his energies for the regular season.But, I never completely trust what the Phillies press releases say on player's health and game readiness.

Some quick clarifcation on howard/utley's 10890Ks vs Ohman:

Howard- 17PA: 0BB 9Ks 4/17 with 1 double, 1 homerun and yes... 1 triple.

Utley- 17PA: 3BB 3K 4/13 1 double.

Oddly, Burrell and Rollins have much worse numbers vs him. 1 single in a combined 17 PAs.

And since we're on the subject on nonsense stats...Ibanez: 1 double in 3 PA.

In re: "unproven"

Poor choice of words on my part. I mean that 14 innings of solid relief work for the Phillies do not prove he is reliable, especially given his performance in the previous 12 years.

thephaithful:

I agree with you that Ohman will want a lot more than $2 million per year for a 2 year deal, but you'd still be able to get him at a discount.

As for Schilling, I think what you can safely say is that he was the best "big game" pitcher of his era. I mean, not only in Boston, but as someone brought up on the last thread, in Philly's WS he had an amazing game to stave off elimination. And in the Arizona WS it was him, not Johnson, who saved the day.

I think Schilling should get in.

I like the idea of paying Ohman 1 million this year and then 3 million next year. Does that make sense? I don't know...

I do agree that Ohman is a steal right now, but I can see what the Phillies are thinking - they've got more money(at least top 3 i'm guessing) tied up in their bullpen than the entire league, around $24mil between lidge(12),Madson(4),JC(4),Eyre(2),Durbin(1.7),condrey(.7) and then another 2.5 for Park or less if someone else.

I know the Yanks have Mariano Rivera for $15 and Marte for another 4ish, but thats about it. RedSox are lucky to have all their arms from the system and not spend on FAs(except for Tazawa). Mets may have more than Phils, but mainly because they're paying two closers +$10mil with only the services of one. I also saw the WhiteSox are up there with Linebrick/Dotel/Jenks, but still not as much as Philly.

Unless they can shed guaranteed money due to Jenkins/Stairs/Bruntlett - they probably are staying put. I love Stairs, but i'd give up him for nothing if they can turn his $1mil into Ohman for a year.

so let's say Schilling gets in the HOF, which I believe he should...

which cap is he wearing?

Phillies 8.5 seasons 101 W
Red Sox 4 seasons 53 W
Dbacks 3.5 seasons 58 W
Orioles 3 seasons 1 W
Astros 1 season 3 W

sh: Orioles. Definitely Orioles.

Taschner adds nothing.

It'd be better to pull Bastardo back up. At least he has a bitchin' name.

JR: Eyre was absolutely terrible for about the first 4 years of his career. Since then, he has generally been pretty reliable -- though he's certainly nowhere near as good as he pitched for the Phillies at the end of last year.

Mac Tonight: You do realize Bunning also has 40 more losses than Schilling, right? If you know anything about baseball, you know that starters simply pitched to way more decisions in the past than they do today, both wins and losses. Thus you should really use win-loss comparisions judiciously when doing so across eras. Doesn't that make sense?

jack: you should check stat of the day on baseball reference. they did a whole study on % of decisions going to starters.

Shows during the 50s - early 70s that around 75% of decisions went to starters while they accounted for pitching around 71% of the innings.

Then both gradually decline until present day, where starters only throw about 66% of the innings and they only get about 70% of the decisions.

"Paying Ohman $2 million is a no brainer."


I never thought I would type these words but I think we've become a bit spoiled by the Phillies' high payroll. Are we really suggesting that they are being cheap for not paying $2M per year to a reliever whose sole job would be to retire 1 batter every other game for the first third of the season? There is a reason that Will Ohman is still a free agent 2 weeks away from opening day: his skill set is extremely limited and he has set an unreasonable asking price relative to that skill set. $2M is a LOT of money for a LOOGY -- especially for a team which is already paying $2M to its own LOOGY.

SH- If he wants to make sure he gets in, he will be wearing that Sox cap as much as possible.

If Ohman is asking for MORE than $2M per year then he clearly fancies himself as something more than just a LOOGY. So far, all 30 major league teams have told him he is wrong.

BAP: If you knew Ohman was going to be had at $2mil per year, would you have resigned Eyre for that much? Or Sott Schoenweis on a 3yr $10mil deal?

If Ohman was $2mil to start the year, he would have been signed by the first day of FA.

Bastardo is in AAA camp, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him in a Phillies uniform by the end of June.

Schilling was also the best complete game pitcher of his era.

thephaithful -

If I'm not mistaken, Stairs is making $1 million this year and Bruntlett is making $850,000. So, they're not the drag on the Phils payroll. Jenkins is a whole different story.

I don't understand why $132 million is written in stone as the Phils 2009 payroll limit. For all the extra money the Phils made from winning the world championship last year and all the extra they'll make fielding another contender in 2009, I don't see another $1 million being an issue.

I think Amaro has done a very nice job so far as GM. He seems to have savvy. I think he may have other ideas about a lefthanded reliever and a few other positions in the back of his head and may need a few more days or weeks to let the other teams show their hands.

phaithful: Frankly, I don't think either Ohman or Eyre is worth $2M, and I sure don't think Schoenweis -- who had 1 good year after a lot of bad ones -- is worth $3M. Most teams fill the LOOGY role with a young pitcher who gets paid major league minimum or near minimum. If you don't have such a commodity, then you have to overpay for a LOOGY, as the Phillies have done. But I sure don't think they need to overpay for TWO LOOGYs -- especially when they've already got a solid left-hander who will be back after 2 months.


It's starting to look as if Happ is going to be the second lefty out of the pen at the start of the season. I expect that Park will be a disaster as a starter and, right around the time that Romero comes back, the Phillies will move Happ into the rotation & Park back to the pen.

Paying a one-inning reliever $2 million to do his job is not unreasonable. Many times, it is the ability of a reliever to come into a tight situation and prevail that makes the difference between a win and a loss. The closer gets most of the glory, but without a game to close, finishers are inconsequential.

I think Ohman would be a good fit for the Phils because of his history with the Braves and the NL East. He knows the Braves hitters, and he has seen the rest of the NL East hitters on a regular basis. If he has studied the Braves and other NL East hitters more than they have studied him, the Phils could be acquiring a very valuable player.

Picking up a player who has played for another team in the same division has advantages and disadvantages. Such an acquisition can help or hurt a team. In the case of acquiring a pitcher from the same division, one must remember that good pitching beats good hitting - and vice-versa.

Schill will be elected to office as a conservative republican. He certainly has the mouth to be a politician. Kinda like Jim Bunning.

I don't think the extra 1 million is the issue...ohman would be a third lefty out of the pen when romero comes back and is probably money that could be spant more wisely. With the economy in the state it is, it's obviusly affecting baseball personel decisions, and high priced players on lousy teams will probably be going for pennies on the dollar at the trade deadline. I think it's wise to go into the begining of the season, see where holes develop as the season goes on, and fill holes that you need to fill for the stretch run. I just don't see the phils falling out of contention because they didn't have a good enough loogy for the first 50 games of the season.

Doc: I think Ohman would be an ok acquisition too, but I think you're rather overstating his importance. The Phillies already have 1 LOOGY -- maybe 2, if Happ goes to the pen. Happ is actually better than Ohman, since his numbers against lefties are nearly as good & he can get right-handers out as well. And, once Romero comes back, what are we going to do with Eyre AND Ohman? You can't waste 2 bullpen spots on guys who are useless against right-handers.


You say that, if they're already spending $132M, why not another $1M? The problem with that logic is that is has no ending point. Once they spend that extra $1M, you could say the same thing about the next guy who comes available for $1M. Or $2M. Or $10M. Or whatever. The Phillies have a budget, which they've probably already exceeded, and they also need to budget for the mid-season call-ups and acquisitions they will inevitably have to make. I can certainly see why they wouldn't want to fork over $2M for a role-player, when they're already paying $2M for a nearly identical role player & one of the two would become unnecessary as soon as Romero comes back.

Ohman is better than Eyre so he would likely be the 2nd lefty out of the pen after Romero returns.

I don't think it matters that ohman is better than eyre, since cutting eyre would still be eating his contract and cutting him would probably mean ohman doesn't look like such a bargain. I'm pretty sure that if ohman was looking for onbly one million, he'd already have a home. Last I heard he was looking for 2 mill plus incentives, so penciling him in as a 1 million dollar increase isn't likely. Factor in eyres salary, and he doesn't look like much of a bargain. I think the phills are better off passing, and seeing how there income looks at midseason. LOOGY's are alway relatively inexpensive at the deadline.

A debate over whether to pay a 2nd loogy $2 million and give him a spot on the roster? Nice problem. Less than 3 years ago there were days when 5 guys on the 25 man roster were not even legit major leaguers.

NEPP "Ohman is better than Eyre so he would likely be the 2nd lefty out of the pen after Romero returns."

Thank you for adding some sense to this discussion. For reasons that are unclear to me, on Beerleaguer Scott Eyre is a slam dunk reliable LOOGY certain to have a good year at age 37.

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