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Tuesday, March 24, 2009

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For what it's worth (and probably not much), Eric Bruntlett is batting .340 this spring with a .971 OPS, 12 r, 6 dbl, 1 hr, 6 hr, 10 bb, and 6 sb.

This is an excerpt from Bill Conlin's column this morning on Schilling. The part about Daulton landing his space ship in the parking lot of Bright House field had me LOL at my desk:


Andersen rolled his eyes when I asked his reaction to Schilling's cyberspace announcement that his 20-year career is over. "I was taught that if you can't say something nice about somebody, don't say anything at all," he said. Then LA laughed mirthlessly. "It would probably make CNN."

As luck would have it, the showers that came gusting off Tampa Bay and doused another Bright House Field sellout forced Darren Daulton to land the mothership in the parking lot. He was holding court in the Hooters box with the usual gaggle of pals and fans who surround him here during the Countdown to Dec. 21, 2012, last day of the Mayan calendar. When that page is turned, he says, all humankind will continue to exist, but in a different form...

Baker's 2008:

Home .304 BA, .536 SLG, .901 OPS
Road .221, .382, .647

Career:

Home .294, .547, .896
Road .216, .278, .633

Sounds like we should pick him up only for games at Coors vs lefties.

So by those splits he'll be fine at CBP if he's in a Phillies uniform??

Right?

I am half retarded when it comes to stats, but aren't most MLB players better hitters at home?

Yes, on average a player does better at home...its just that in Baker's case, it seems a bit extreme...when you adjust for his Park Factor at Coors, he still looks pretty bad.

Well, last year's park factors according to ESPN had Coors at #3 and CBP at #15.

As for most players doing better at home, Rockies were #2 in OPS at home in the NL, #12 on the road. SD was last at home, #9 on the road, so teams with major home field tendencies don't follow the theory that most do better at home.

Phils were #4 at home, #5 on the road.

What is it with the extreme home/away splits by Colorado players? Every single one of them it seems ...

Since I understand they're heavily into bible study, I would discount the possibility of excessive drinking and whoring on the road for Colorado. Must be the thin air, then.

Most Rockies players do have pretty big splits. If that stat was a good forecaster of future performance most players traded by the Rockies to other teams would fail. Of course, that's not true because H/A split is fairly useless as a predictor of future performance.

Jeff Baker, who at 28 is no longer a prospect, has solid power and can play the 4 corner positions adequately. His best asset on defense is a strong arm, so he doesn't hurt you in RF. Frankly, I think you could make him the everyday thirdbaseman and he'd give you a league-average glove and far superior offense to the incumbent (i.e. .260 with 25 HRs in 550 ABs.).

To the extent that Baker is flawed, he has terrible strike zone judgment, which results in a terrible K/BB ratio.

He hit a HR every 24.9 ABs last season, which translate to 25 HRs as an everyday player. He'd be an excellent addition to the team, but i can't imagine the Rocks would deal him for KK.

From previous thread:
"clout, on the previous thread did you mean Kurt Suzuki and not Mac Suzuki when you were making a Marson projection?

Posted by: AWH | Monday, March 23, 2009 at 11:06 PM"

Yes. Good catch. At least I didn't confuse Kurt Suzuki (Marson's upside) with Ichiro Suzuki.

I don't understand the preoccupation with Nunez and Bruntlett quality players. While I think Kendrick has peaked and is very much worth trading, I personally think and I wrote so at the end of last year that it is unlikely that Lidge would have a similar year to the last one. Given the Mets have adressed the replacement of Wagner and now have antoher bat in Murphy (who is a little bit of an Utley type) I think we need to get ready for more pitching. And I don't see Happ as a reliever or closer. We need a heater.

It's tough not to like Kendrick. I certainly want him to succeed if he is dealt from the Phillies, but the Rockies seem like a really bad fit for a guy that lets a lot of men on base and has trouble missing bats.

Murphy is a good bat but he doesn't project to have any power...though his bat plays fine at 2B. Of course, his glove does not so he's a corner OF...where his bat is not so great.

I guess I'd need to see some sort of statistical backup to accept that a guy that can't hit on the road as a Rockie will suddenly become better at that if he moves to another team. Does every Rockie have such a split as Baker?

There's a difference between a Matt Holliday type who goes from a 997 ops to an 894 ops home vs road and what Baker did.

Whew. Take a couple days for family stuff and look at all the stuff you miss...

In re: the bizarre (never gonna happen) trade of Buchholz for Marson. The main question I always ask when looking at any trade is, "If I were the opposing GM would I like this trade?" It is possible, you know, for either OR both to think they are not receiving value. If I were Boston I would not want to make that trade. (If I were the Phillies, OTOH, a rotation in two or three years of Hamels, Buchholz, Drabek, Carrasco and just about any other Phils MiLB prospect (I tend toward Happ or Savery because of their handedness) would make the quality of the catcher's hitting largely irrelevant. (And by then either Valle, D'Arnaud or Tuffy might be ready.) (TG reference for clout's perusal only.)

In re: Kendrick's demotion.
Uh, I'm not surprised.

In re: Gnome Power
It's amazing the effect that actual competition can have on some players. You bring in a half dozen "versatile" guys and suddenly the Gnome is, like, Dick Groat or Tony Taylor (or Rick Schu!) or something.

In re: NEPP's catcher list
I'd put Valle over Naughton. Apart from his handedness, Naughton does not have several things that Valle does - like age. Valle is (what? about) eighteen or something.

In re: Donald's departure
If 3/20 is clout day, the day that Donald gets sent down should be considered "Reality Day," when we no longer believe that the Phils will act totally out of character and keep a kid up who needs more seasoning.

In re: Periodic reality check
name - OPS, HR, SB, BB, K
Mayberry .849, 3, 3, 3, 18
Golson .969, 1, 0, 1, 6
Derrek Lee .660, 1, 0, 3, 7

In re: Happ
He has not done veyr well as a reliever. The Phils could still use a real LH RP. It's not Aaron Fultz, but maybe someone else who gets dumped.

In re: Out of Options list
I truly dislike Cody Ross. He might be a fine signing as a RHB who is a true OF with a bit of speed and decent power. Blecchh.

From what I remember, a good number of them do.

Kaz Matzui had similar splits but still hit fairly well in Houston after he left.

****I'd put Valle over Naughton. Apart from his handedness, Naughton does not have several things that Valle does - like age. Valle is (what? about) eighteen or something.****

I meant right this second...not on upside (which Valle has a ton of). He's 18 this year IIRC. He'll move up that list if everything goes right.

NEPP - Began looking. First of all "a good number" needs some definition. I think there are probably more guys that have declines when they leave Denver than experience gains. Just a feeling there. One limiting factor, of course, is that hitters seem to dislike leaving. Guys like Galarraga and Helton just kinda camp out there until their career is all but over. (Hmm...wonder why...)

Second thing. Poor Jay Payton. He went from Colorado to San Diego. Went from OPS of .866 to .693 in one season. And got paid $350K less in the move. Free agency doesn't always work out for everyone, I guess.

I'm always a bit skeptical when a Rockies player has extreme home/away splits. But, at the same time, it's pretty unlikely that Baker's .216 career road average accurately represents what he would hit if he were traded. I would note, too, that Baker raked in the minors, and not just for Colorado Springs. For sure he'd be an uprgrade over Cairo.

Take this guy away from Coors, and while he's no doubt better than a .219 hitter, he looks like he's something like a .260/.310/.430 hitter, with presumably average at best defense at 3rd base.

There's a LOT of guys who can be considered an upgrade over Pedro Feliz--I disagree with Clout's assertion that this is one of them.

Granted, we won the WFC despite carrying So Taguchi on our roster all season long, and it's doubtful that Cairo could be any worse than Taguchi. On the other hand, it's also doubtful that Greg Dobbs can be as productive off the bench as he was last season, when he was the best pinch hitter in baseball. It's also somewhat doubtful (to me, at least) that aging players like Jenkins and Coste can be as productive as they were last season. Bottom line: the Phillies can't go through the entire season with a 5-man bench of Jenkins, Bruntlett, Cairo, Coste/Paulino, and Dobbs. That bench is terrible, and it will cost them more than a few games over the course of the season.

Prediction: clout's next post will be directed at Jack and will include the phrase "your love affair with Pedro Feliz."

Incidentally, one of the funniest posts I've seen was one about four threads back where clout actually said

"So you think..." (blah blah blah)?

Interesting.

It's like he was parodying the posts of other parodiers.

Can't we trade Kendrick to Japan for someone who won the WBC?

BAP: Those words are unnecessary. Jack has been Pedro's number one defender and excuse-maker since he joined the team.

Re: Baker, only Jack would think that .260/.310/.430 isn't an upgrade over .249/.302/.402. Of course Jack also thinks Feliz is a Gold Glove thirdbaseman, so we're dealing with major delusions.

Two-thirds of Jack's projection on Baker is pretty close to what I'd project, but he'w way off on SLG. Baker's career SLG is .468 and, even accounting for the droppoff between Coors and CBP, a drop of 38 point6s is absurd. You also have to consider that Baker is still improving, while Feliz is declining.

Bill James 2009 projection for Jeff Baker: .270/.330/.470

Andy: You think I'm parodying the posts of other parodiers?

Interesting.

How is Baker doing in spring training?

I'm guessing Bill James projected him to play half his games in Colorado?

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