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Tuesday, March 17, 2009

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Mayberry is doing about what he'd probably do if he were on the roster.

Today's Lineup:

Utley, 2B
Bruntlett, SS
Ibanez, LF
Howard, 1B
Stairs, RF
Feliz, 3B
Mayberry, CF
Ruiz, C
Myers, P

I'm listening on MLB.com radio, I'll try and give some updates.

Myers has struck out two in the first.

NEPP - aren't those near his career minor league numbers? I'd think he'd likely be a tick below that as far as BA/OBP goes, and much lower for SLG.

Love Cairo's SLG. funny. No talk of Marson around here, but I suppose he's the fourth catcher.

Pitchers hitting today. I hope Myers' Hall-of-Fame-caliber at bats carry over from the playoffs!

oh, I was wrong. Career minor league numbers: .255/.330/.472.

****NEPP - aren't those near his career minor league numbers? I'd think he'd likely be a tick below that as far as BA/OBP goes, and much lower for SLG.****

I think its pretty close to what his projections are other than the artificially high SLG %...drop the slugging down maybe 75 points and that's about what we should expect...low average, low OBP, good power, good defense, and high Ks.

All Jason Donald does is hit at every level he's been asked yet this guy is pegged for LV. Let him play for the big team already.

"Mayberry is doing about what he'd probably do if he were on the roster."

I'm hoping that's sarcasm. There are posters who would maintain that kind of line, but you are not normally of that ilk.

Just in case, let's break it down thus:
Mayberry is doing about as well against a varied assortment of marginal and minor pitchers, along with an occasional big league guy who isn't quite up to speed yet as he would in a whole season of facing big league pitching, with a lot of time just sitting on the bench and most of the pitchers he's facing being late inning right handers.

Okay. Right.

Ibanez doubles with two outs and Howard singles, but it was hit too hard to Bruce in RF that Ibanez was held at third. Stairs up now.

Mayberry

CHONE: .236/.291/.413
Zips: .230/.284/.402

Stairs pops out, first inning over. In top half, Myers gave up a single and struck out two.

He needs to work on his defense at 3B.

With Ibanez and Stairs at the corners, Mayberry will get a tremendous workout in CF.

My comment on Mayberry was not an endorsement...it was more a reference to his low OBP and high Ks.

And we thought we would never see Bruntlett with an OPS over .800!

Who do CHONE and Zips play for?
:-)

I am creating a new stat called BPOT, or "Best Player On Team" I should probably copyright this before baseballprospectus.co steals it.

With April off days, we don't need a 5th starter until April 20th. We have off days on the 6th, 9th and 14th. Conceivably, we could get through our first 12 games without needing a 5th starter. That could be either Hamels missing time or leaving out Park/Happ, or a combination of the two.

"b-a-p: When you say you're worried about the health of Feliz, are you saying you're worried he'll be injured or healthy?"


LOL. That's a valid question, Andy. However, I meant no irony when I included Feliz in the list of people whose health is worrisome. If Feliz is injured, we're going to get a large early-season dose of Eric Bruntlett. Compared to Bruntlett, Feliz looks like the second coming of Mike Schmidt.

Donald and Mayberry need to start at LV. We need them playing everyday so they can get their work in.

Mayberry doubles off a righty (good sign!) and then Ruiz doubles Mayberry in. Chooooooch!

Chooch!!!

I'd take an .862 OPS from Mayberry in a rookie year.

Utley walks and Bruntlett doubles, Ruiz scores. Runners on 2nd and 3rd, two outs, two runs in. I guess Uncle Charlie really did light a fire.

Ibanez walks, works a real good at bat, to load the bases for Howard. Bases juiced.

Compared to Bruntlett, Feliz looks like the second coming of Mike Schmidt.

vs. LHP // career // 2008

Bruntlett: .269/.358/.396 // .254/.361/.380
Feliz: .267/.312/.446 // .288/.349/.496

No question that Feliz is preferable, but Bruntlett has a nice OBP against RHP. If he can keep that up, and Charlie plays a nice dose of Dobbs against RHP, it may not be so bad. I felt the same way last August. Once Bruntlett showed his futility against RHP, Dobbs started and played very well down the stretch.

Howard walks to drive in a run. Another good patient at bat. I liked both Ibanez and Howard working the at bat and not being in a "Spring Training" mindset and just trying to hit the ball.

Stairs up now.

Stairs clears the bases with a double to the gap. All against Aaron Harang, a legit arm. A lot easier to listen to today's game.

CJ - Phils don't need a 5th starter until the 3rd week in April. Frankly I am kind of wondering why they are having Hamels resume throwing again in 2 days despite the inflammation.

Doesn't it make sense now to have it rest a bit more and resume throwing in 7-10 days when the inflammation subsides a bit? If he needs to miss the start of the season and stay in Florida for the first few weeks until he is ready, then so be it. Especially if Utley/Feliz are back.

baxter - I assume your post was partially tongue-in-cheek. Phils would take that in a second. Mayberry's minor league OPS is .802. His projections put him at .700. .862 is highly unlikely. Geoff Jenkins' career OPS is .834.

Feliz keeps the inning alive by intentionally hitting a fieldable grounder to a third baseman who couldn't field it.

Well done, Pete!

Mayberry comes up with two on, but pops out to center on the first pitch. 6 runs in the inning!

Tony D: CHONE plays for the Angels.

If Bruntlett is used selectively, he has some value especially if he can hit .250 and keep his % BB up.

Still, the Phils use Bruntlett in situations where he is exposed including as a PH, a defensive sub in the OF, and starting him against RHP.

Cholly no longer makes the obvious makes managing (e.g., double switch) but tactical decisisons still aren't Cholly's strong suit.

Myers sounds REAL sharp. Has allowed two hits in 3 innings, both singles, and struck out 5.

Chone does play for the Angels. Love his game.

Mike Zipser was a 26th round pick for the Phils out of UNLV in '98. Pitched a year in Joliet and his last in Lincoln.

Radio just announced that Burrell will be present at the ring ceremony on opening day.

Feliz definitely does not get enough credit for doing the little things. You think it was just an accident that he hit that ball with precisely the speed, spin, and trajectory needed to get the fielder to botch it?

****Tony D: CHONE plays for the Angels.****

~groans~

"for doing the little things"...you sound like Wheeler referring to that ass-hat David Bell.

BAP, the "Feliz factor" works on both sides of the ball. That fielder was probably so worried about his upcoming AB with Pedro at the hot corner that he couldn't concentrate properly on his fielding.

Burrell's people realize that he will always be seen as a Phillie and are doing an excellent job of setting him up for his post-baseball career here. Although the letter was arguably over the top.

That letter is what long-time players traditionally do when leaving their town of note. It was a standup move and brilliant PR on his part.

He pretty much locked up his spot on every reunion day for the next 40 years.

Donald has a team leading 44 ABs with only 2 RBIs. Who is he hitting behind Marcus Giles & Marson?

Lots of single there though...he only had 3 extra base hits in those ABs...

Sophist- all my posts are "partially tongue-in-cheek". Of course the Phillies would take an .862 OPS from Mayberry, but his numbers were being criticized earlier in the thread.

GM-Carson: I hope you realize that my post about Feliz was intended to be ironic.

Strong, strong outing by Brett Myers. He's through 5 with just 3 hits and 6 K's.

NEPP - Actually, the guy at 3rd was more than just concerned about staring down the icy eyes of the encroaching third baseman of the Phils; he also knew that his own ability as a defenseman was in jeopardy since he'd have to save about (and this is just a rough estimate) 3.732 runs in this game to compare with what happens for Philly.

B_A_P- of course I did. I just get chills up my spine when I read/hear the phrase "does all the little things", because that's what Wheels used to say about his boyfriend David Bell.

Sophist -
in re: Mayberry

Shock the monkey! What are his Marcels?

Brett Myers adds to his Hall of Fame resume with a base hit.

I'm thinking Chollie shoulda saved his scorching of the team's effort for the season when the games count. It evidently has a profound effect.

bap - Feliz pulling a ball to the left-side of the field? Shocking. I love how more often than not Feliz try to pull almost every pitch regardless of type, location, or velocity.

Anyone watch Eastbound and Down?

Kenny Powers reminds me of Myers. But only if Myers gets fat again, Fat Myers is more fun. I can see Myers driving around Jacksonville in the offseason drinking High Life's with his jet ski's on the back of his truck.

Carson: Fair enough. I loathe that expression also. You never hear the announcers say that Albert Pujols or Vlad Guerrero do "all the little things." They only say it about players who absolutely suck.

Myers line:

5.2 IP, 4 hits (3 singles, 1 double), 7 Ks, responsible for runner on third.

Oh, and he moved a runner over from 2nd to third and he got a base hit.

Too bad it's not Clout Day yet or I'd be saying he's an early Cy Young candidate!

On a serious note, announcers say they were impressed by his variety of pitches and locations... he even mixed in his changeup.

In that case, Bruntlett really, REALLY, does all the little things.

Really.

Myers was 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA last spring and he sucked big time when the real games started. I wouldn't look too much into it.

Myers shrinking body is the most recent sign that he is growing up and actually wants to succeed at this game. Today was a nice response to the Hamels news.

Just for the hell of it, I'm putting him down for 17-18 wins this year.

Tony D: I doubt anyone is reading too much into it.

It's great to see our pitchers looking sharp, but we all know we're still a few days away from Clout Day when we can accurately measure spring training performaces.

Tony D -

But you are willing to place Donald on the 25-Man roster based on his spring performance .... although Myer's pitching well in the spring doesn't count?

Interesting.

Tony D - Yeah. Veteran performances in spring training are largely useless unless a guy is fighting for a spot or coming off an injury.

As for Eastbound and Down, I don't get why that show has gotten such positive feedback from viewers. Funny at times but there is a big difference between being just trying to make a comedic point while being crude/vulgar/racy and just being crude/vulgar/racy to try and get a laugh.

Donald only makes the roster if Feliz & Utley didn't open the season on the Opening Day roster. If Feliz & Utley do, Donald (along with Giles/Ozuna/Cairo) will be in the minors of elsewhere come opening day.

curt: Being in a contract year is one heck of a motivator, too. If can pitch like a 1A this year, that'll go a long way to getting us back where we want to be!

"I love how more often than not Feliz try to pull almost every pitch regardless of type, location, or velocity."


MG: I believe you are selling Feliz short. The reason he tries to pull every pitch is because he is challenging the opposing third baseman. He's saying, "You know I can field every ball hit within 20 feet of me, but let's see how you do, pal." It's true that a lot of these pulled ground balls result in outs but the important thing is that Feliz is getting inside the head of the opposing third baseman. These complex psychological operations pay off later in the game, when the guy comes up with the bases loaded and strikes out because he's so exhausted from trying to keep up with Feliz on defense.

JMAR, I could be wrong but I think Donald is ready. Uts broke through to the big leagues in his age 24 year.

Vicar MG: It's not that people think Eastbound and Down is some modern day Shakespearean tale, but the anti-heroic nature of the protagonist combined with his mega-curled mullet is just funny to many. It's on a pay cable channel at 10:30 at night, so the vulgar, crude, racy aspects are just one layer to the onion, but if, for instance, you listen to the cognitive dissonance of his audio book, that is just plain funny.

BAP - Psychological advantage I guess.

I was actually surprised to see the data but Feliz actually hits more balls up the middle (including 2nd base) than I thought.

Still, his hit spray chart indicates the man loves to pull the ball. It just results in some comedically bad swings on offspeed pitches on the outside of the plate.

Tony D. I would actually be in favor of having Donald in Philly if we were not trying to repeat and had a place for him to get 450-500 AB's.

To put him on the bench in a part-time role doesn't make any sense however. He needs to play everyday.

JMAR, I agree yeah if he isn't going to start then there is no point. I just think they're slow with bringing up their prospects. I thought Chase should have been brought up quicker then when he was, and Donalds minor league OPS is very similar to Chase's.

JMARR: So you would sit Donald on the bench against RHP while Feliz plays?

Invigorating....

I am sure Cholly would.

"These complex psychological operations pay off later in the game..."

Where else but beerleaguer can you get such insightful analysis. I bet a lot of important sportscasters have simply overlooked this line of thought.

Look's like the "favorite" of 3 weeks ago finished 4th in the 4 way race. Someone somewhere is possibly surprised.

Friday at Cardinals, in Jupiter: RHP Carlos Carrasco, Durbin, Madson.
Saturday vs. Twins, in Clearwater: RHP Chan Ho Park, RHP Kyle Kendrick, Condrey, Eyre, Lidge

curt: Park finished 4th? Or, as usual, you don't pay attention?

Unless I'm missing something, I thought he meant Kendrick.

MPN - Vicar MG? Haha. It doesn't need to be Shakespeare or high-brow to make me laugh. Eastbound and Down just generally tries to be socially awkward/shocking to grab a laugh instead of having some better writing/script development.

Works sometimes but more often than not it is just like watching a drunk guy at a bar make an a$$ of himself by yelling obscenities, awkwardly hitting on women, and causing fights.

Makes for a good laugh maybe if something funny/quirky happens but generally more often that not it just a guy being a d!ck.

Hugh: My point exactly.

curt: It's March 17th. So you believe races for roster spots end on St. Patty's Day?

Interesting...

CJ: curt's problem is he somehow thought Kendrick was the favorite 3 weeks ago when Bill Conlin and many others were saying Park was the favorite.

thephaithful:

So you would question JMARR stating that he would sit Donald against RHP and let Feliz play?

Interesting..

clout: He was likely swayed by Dubee's proclamation that Kendrick was "the favorite." I'm not sure I agree with Conlin... but I'm not sure I'd take Dubee's word for it either.

I'm not sure any of the starters had any kind of inside track. Conlin may have been right, I don't know.

curt - Using the rhetorical question? That is usually a Clout hallmark.

Dubee's saying Hamels is a long shot for opening day.

http://zozone.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/03/dubee_hamels_likely_a_long_sho.html

Seems like Charlie won't have to make a decision between Happ and Park. So the rotation would set up Myers, Moyer, Blanton, Park, Happ. The thing that concerns me just as much is the bullpen. Presuming we go with 11 pitchers, who has the last two bullpen spots? Right now it seems like we would have a Lidge, Madson, Eyre, Durbin, Condrey, Majewski, Borkowski bullpen.

phaithful, I thought I was being pretty clear. If Donald is not going to get everyday AB's at the Major League Level, I would not have him on our roster starting against anyone. He would be in AAA.

As an aside, if you are looking for "invigorating", you might want to look at another activity. I think my definition must differ significantly from yours.

Conlin said Park was the favorite. Dubee said it was Kendrick. I don't know who it really was but, if it was between Park & KK, then it's academic this point. While it may not be possible to win a roster spot by 3-17, it is certainly possible to lose a spot by that date. Kendrick has clearly done so.

clout: That's Mr. William Conlin to you!

MG: Fair enough. Individual mileage may vary on this stuff. I just think that Danny McBride is hilarious on that show and it's like he is an amalgam of the, as we know now, `93 Phillies team.

bap: I'm also guessing KK is out of the running for the 5th spot, but I'm not sure he finished 4th as curt suggested. Carrasco has plenty of time to finish 4th. In fact, I think there's a much better chance of KK getting a call up for a spot start than Carrasco this season!

B-Mac: Phils won't require a 5th starter until April 20th. That's game 13 of the season. So if Hamels isn't ready, they won't necessarily need both Park and Happ in the rotation.

clout: I think the "official" favorite for the race comes from the pitching coach, not Conlin.

If Hamels isn't ready to go, do the Phils carry 12 pitchers on the Opening Day roster?

ZT: That assumes you think Dubee is more likely to give you an honest assessment than Conlin. I'll take Conlin (and did, as you may recall.)

If Hamels isn't able to go on opening day and starts the season on the DL, I would like to see Park and Happ start. I know we will not need a 5th starter until halfway through April but that would give each guy at least 2 more starts. Also giving the other 3 in the rotation an extra day of rest in the begining of the season. This would allow more time to figure out who should be in the Pen, Rotation, AAA.

Just got a text from my wife that Cole Hamels is on her flight from Philly to Tampa that is in the air right now. Word is he is riding in coach, and Mrs. Jonesman's scouting report is that Cole is handsome.

I can only imagine the dirtkicking that would commence from Seoul Man if he were awarded a rotation spot and then had it taken away when Hamels were healthy....

Heard on ESPN that Jeter is starting at short and Rollins is DHing tonight. Victorino starting at CF.

3 weeks ago, our pitching coach declared a "favorite" in the 5th starter competition. KK was the anointed one. Some of us called B.S. The candidates were a ML vet just signed to a big contract, a young pitcher coming off an effective Sept/Oct., a young guy sent down last year due to ineffectiveness, and a can't miss minor league prospect. On the face of it, KK had almost no prayer of fulfilling Dubee's expectations - even before Dubee ripped him in the media.

KK made several starts. ML hitters weren't impressed - still ineffective. As the pitching schedule now shows, KK will not be starting again any time soon. The other 3 will be. KK won't be the 5th starter.

The interesting question here is whether Dubee actually believed KK was the favorite for the job. I'd like to believe he's not that clueless, but why say it if he didn't believe it? Some kind of mind game?

curt - where might one find the pitching schedule you mentioned?

curt: "but why say it if he didn't believe it? Some kind of mind game?"

Exactly. Coaches do it all the time, trying to build confidence or light a fire.

The day Park signed he said he wouldn't have signed with the Phillies unless he believed he'd be in the rotation. While the FO has never admitted giving any assurances to Park, I saw no reason not to take him at his word. His comments and his contract suggested that if he was healthy, he was the one.

curt: Seriously... you don't understand that sports coaches aren't always entirely truthful when talking to the media? That sometimes they have ulterior motives when they talk to the press?

Interesting...

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