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Friday, March 27, 2009

Comments

re: trading for Paulino

I wouldn't call it a miscalculation. Few teams have the catching depth that Philly has. Amaro traded a catcher that likely has no major league future for a catcher that does. Whether they flip him to another team in a future deal or he contributes as Ruiz' backup, the Jaramillo trade was a good move.

Is Mayberry still with the club? Haven't heard his named mentioned in a few days...

mikes77: I'm a huge Howard fan and usually find myself defending him against his detractors, but if you don't think he has holes in his game that lead to criticism than you obviously aren't even a Ryan Howard fan, but a puppet who just knows a name and blindly loves him for it.

If you disagree with what someone is saying, than offer your opinion, maybe try and back it up with some type of reason, or just dont bother posting at all.

Today is my lucky day. The Phillies are playing the Astros and I'll be able to listen to the game as I drive back to New Orleans after lunch on the Houston station. I'll probably be out of range of the dinky Houston sports station by the second inning! They're not bumping Rush from their 50,000 Watt flamethrower flagship station for an ST game. I will be able to hear all of the Monday game at work.

I keep watching the North Dakota flooding news and my heart and prayers goes out to one of our premier female BLers...the great phargo!

Albert: yes.

phaithful, don't waste your time.

mikes is a founding member of the Sir Alden Trio, which has recently been rumored to be expanding to Quintet size.

phargo, I pray you're still dry enough to give us an update.

Godspeed!

He sure is. Thats one of the reasons I still check out the boxscore...

If we want to get some Mayberry talk goin...
I think he makes the team as the 5th outfielder. I know they are trying to unload Jenkins and/or Stairs, but may have to release Stairs. The main reason I think Mayberry makes it because of his speed. We would have very little speedoff the bench if he didnt make it. The guy is 25yo he earned spot with his play. Its up to him to contribute and stick around. A coulple of guys have made this team with their baserunning / speed the last couple of years... So Taguchi...Chris Roberson

Think of it this way, Jason. You're doing far more with secondary sources than Andy Martino does by traveling with the team and working for a major paper.

Does Mayberry have speed? As you said, he is a 25yr old athelete, so I'm sure he is faster than our other bench options, but I haven't heard much about his speed, in terms of baserunning at least.

Taguchi made the team because he was one of the better PH in the majors the year prior and Roberson made the team because we got desperate when vic and bourne both got hurt.

So I dont think speed is really something that puts you ahead of the group of bench candidates, unless it is of a very high level.

I don't think Mayberry has SB speed but he does have "defensive replacement" speed.

Albert:

name . ops . hr . sb . bb . k

Mayberry .834 . 3 . 3 . 3 . 18
Golson .969 . 1 . 0 . 1 . 6

for comparison:
R. Zimmerman .577 . 0 . 0 . 4 . 7
B. Wilkerson .482 . 2 . 0 . 4 . 18

Actually, Mayberry played in that Yankees game yesterday as a late sub for Werth in RF. He's not getting as many ABs as the regulars log more time. Golson appears to have been shut down by the Rangers. I even wonder if he's still with their major league ST squad.

In re: the comparison number
They're there just to show how unreliable ST numbers are in general. But hey, maybe we could make a compelling argument with the Nats for a Feliz, Paulino and, say, Kendrick swap for Ryan Zimmerman. (Purely kidding, clout; I know WSN would never do that.)

If Ed Wade was the Nats GM he'd probably at least think about it for a while...especially if you offered to toss in a no hit, speedy guy like Quintin Berry.

good to see everyone ready to roll in '09...i am heading down to Clearwater for the first time tom...anybody got some good travel tips?

Hah, very odd comparison numbers.

Wilkerson numbers look pretty much what I'd expect from a washed up guy who was never that good in the first place.

Sean, the problem with your assumption is that the braintrust has pretty much said they think Mayberry's development might be better by playing every day at AAA.

Even if he makes the big club and the bench is Dobbs, Coste, Bruntlett, Jenkins/Stairs and Mayberry, he's hardly likely to be the first bat off the bench with the best pinch hitter in Phillies history and Jenkins/Stairs ahead of him. Especially with the preponderance of RHP.

The LOOGYs would be used against Utley/Howard/Ibanez, and it's highly unlikely Charlie would PH for one of them.

My bet today would be he opens at AAA. If his approach at the plate continues to improve and he gets more comfortable with the changes Charlie and Milt made to his stance, etc., I can see him getting called up later this season after the Jenkins/Stairs redundancy is dealt with.

Besides, Bruntlett has looked good this Spring (did I just type that), and they may be hopeful he'll provide a little more juice from the right side of the plate this season. If he reverts to his career norm (.250 before last season) he will be better.

Jack: "If you can find me a 30-year old player who improved his walk percentage by 40-50%, I'll believe it."

Barry Bonds improved his walk percentage nearly 100% after age 30. Of course, he had help.

TNA: "If Utley hits .330, he's going to hit way more than 28HRs."

Really? Why? Utley has already hit .330 (.332 in 2007). He hit 22 HRs that year. He missed 30 games with injury, but even if you extend his HR rate over an extra 30 games you wind up with 30-32 HRs which isn't remotely "way more" than 28 HRs.

phaithful, NEPP, in 4 seasons of minor league ball, mayberry has 42 SB and 11 CS.

Draw your own conclusion.

I see a lot of talk thrown out there about the Utley/Howard/Ibanez problem. Can someone give me a projected opening day lineup? Why wouldn't we go with something like this (and yes, I'm just playing devil's advocate):

Vic
Utley
Rollins
Howard
Werth
Ibanez
Feliz
Ruiz
P

thephaithful: Scouting reports I have say Mayberry has excellent speed and a very good glove. He is not, however, much of a base stealer, although Lopes could fix that.

Folks who are obsessing on Mayberry need to look at two things: K/BB ratio and K/AB ratio. Improvement is those areas will forecast the extent of his success. If there is no improvement, then we are looking at a fringe player.

Mayberry's ST stats: 18/3 K/BB and 1/3.4 K/AB.

On another note, Charlie was very critical of Paulino's approach at the plate this Spring.

Lauber referenced it this morning.

I cannot believe that Charlie and Milt did not try to "fix" some of the things they saw wrong with his swing/approach.

Speculation only, but in reading between the lines of Charlie's comments, it sounds to me like they may feel Paulino is not very coachable.

Hi all-

The trucks went by our house all night long last night, building up our dike to 43 feet. The new predicted crest is 42-43 feet. The poor mayor is exhausted and discouraged- they keep upping the crest prediction, so all the dikes that were made to handle 40 had to be raised to handle 41 and now 42 or 43. The dike system is about 12 miles long. I think there is some frustration that we didn’t get a reliable maximum crest at first, so they could have just made all the dikes to handle 43 feet from the get-go. One dike down south (I live up north) has sprung a leak and 150 houses were evacuated at 2 am. Much of Moorhead, across the river, has also been evacuated. The city will start building secondary “contingency” dikes today, and it is my understanding that one may pass between our house and the rest of town, cutting our neighborhood off. A fellow from the city told me last night that they will fortify us to 43 feet, and that will be it. (I want to mention that our insurance agent laughed at me for buying flood insurance when we moved in 5 years ago, as we were “not in the flood plain”. Who’s laughing now?)

Our bags are packed in the car and the pets have been moved. I feel gutted when I see what is happening to the folks in our community. Although I keep ties to the east coast, I have come to love Fargo and it is my home. Still, everyone keeps pitching in and we have a tremendous, if exhausted, leader in Mayor Walaker. If all his efforts fail to protect his town, I honestly worry that it may kill him.

Thanks again for your thoughts, concern, and prayers. It means a lot to me.

Interesting comments from scouts in Kevin Goldstein's scouting notebook on BP (via Phuture Phillies):
Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Phillies: “He has a chance to be special with that changeup.”

Jason Donald, MI, Phillies: “He gets a lot of hype, but I’m just not on that. He’s a bench player at best.”

Not many people, including myself, understood the true athlete the Phils were acquiring when they announced the Mayberry acquisition. He is Ryan Howard strong and impressively fast for a man who is 6'6. He runs the bases very well and he has the potential to become a better than average defensive outfielder.

I haven't been this enthused about a new kid in a Phillies uniform since the day I saw Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino for the first time. When I saw their first plate appearances, I told my son that these guys were going to be stars.

Unlike Donald who will profit from more defensive seasoning in Allentown, Mayberry is ready for the bigs right now. He is going to get more than his shares of hits, homers and RBIs this year no matter where he plays, and for my money, I'd rather see him contribute those numbers to the Phillies' cause.

In his case, I don't buy the argument that he would be better off playing every day in Allentown than coming off the bench for the Phils. First of all, Manuel likes to give his outfielders a regular day off. What's more, the Phils' outfielders have a propensity for getting injured. If each outfielder got one day off per week, Mayberry would get three starts a week. He would also be the Phils' main right handed pinch hitter.

To many readers, Mayberry is just a name. Once you see him play, you'll probably become an instant fan. He loses balls faster and farther than most plaers who have ever played the game.

I watch almost every Phils game on TV and make an occasional trip to the park to see them live. For my money, I'd like to see Mayberry become an integral part of this years Phils team, and although some might argue, the Phils are helped and not hurt with him in the lineup. In fact, during spring training, seeing him batting behind Howard, made the Phils seem like a much improved team. This kid is exciting to watch and he has a bright future with the Phils. Phillie fans are going to like him the same way he rounds the bases - in a hurry.

JTS: Charlie would never field that lineup in a million years, but I would.

clout, I would tend to agree about Mayberry's base stealing. He's 42 out of 53.

That's almost an 80% success ratio.

Last season in the NL, there were 1482 SBs, and 547 CS.

That's a success ratio of 73%.

The Phillies SB succes ratio was 84% last season, and 88% in 2007, vs a 76% success ratio for the league.

JTS, clout - I might worry about how Vic and Rollins hit in those positions. I know that there should be no difference where you hit; but I seem to recall that Vic's numbers at lead-off are not particularly good and that Jimmy's numbers at 3 are not good either. I'll check. (Of course anything that breaks up the lefties will be stronger toward the end of games.)

phargo -
1) Thanks for the update. It's good, at this point, to hear from you just to know you're safe.

2) Thanks for the link. We know it's more than just you out there.

3) More of the same; you know, thoughts, prayers, etc.

that 88% was a MLB alltime record right?

I thought the league average would be closer to mid 60s. 88% doesnt seem "that great" when the average is sitting at 76%.

You waste Utley by having him in the 2 hole...he has way too much power for that spot.

I wouldn't mind seeing Werth in that spot and Vic in the 5 hole occasionally though it is a tad unorthodox to have a guy like Vic batting 5th.

I'd even toss out this, though I don't think it's as good as the first. Plus if you don't like Rollins at 3, you'll probably hate him at 5:

Vic
Werth
Utley
Howard
Rollins
Ibanez
Ruiz
Feliz
P

There just doesn't seem to be any reason you HAVE to bat Ibanez 5 or Utley 3. Other than "that's where Utley hits."

I'm not sure Mayberry is quite ready for OUR big league team. He strikes out too much still and could use some time in AAA to refine the new things he has learned from Charlie and Milt. I will admit he could be a starter on some other teams though.

phaithful, look at it this way:

the Phils stole 138 and 136 bases the last two years respectively, against 19 and 25 CS.

A 12% increase in SBs out of 160 attempts is anoother 19 SBs.

Assuming that all those SB are from 1B to 2B, that's another 19 runners in scoring position.

I'll need a little help here from Sophist et. al., because I don't know how many extra runs that would lead to, but assuming half those guys score it could lead to another win.

If that's the case, one could argue that the increased SB% was the reason the Phillies won the division in 2007.

Also, phaithful, I specifically remember one game in '07 against the Mets where Burrell walked, was replaced by Bourn who the stole second, went to third on a sacrifice, and scored on a Dobbs sac fly.

The Phils wound up winning by that run.

JTS - Why not drop Jimmy another spot. He rakes at 6.

;-)

JTS, Utley hits at 3 because he's the best all-around hitter on the team and is a run producer.

You don't move him lower because it'll cost hib PAs, and you don't move him higher because you wnat as many runers on as possible when he comes to the plate.

If the bottom of the lineup were better OB guys, I might move him back to #2, but with Ruiz and Feliz doen there, it mght be slef defeating.

Gee whiz, you talk about bad type jobs!

I think the fact that Manuel and Milt Thompson have made some adjustments to Mayberry's swing guarantees that he will go to AAA, and I think that is good. His ST performance was good (especially early), but not the type that forces the Phils to keep him up. He is kind of old to still be hoping for major changes, but we have to hope that the Manuel magic, plus the Phils doing whatever they did with Michael Taylor to fix his 'Stanford Swing', plus some consistent AAA at-bats for him to work on it will give Mayberry that last bit of progress he needs to be a valuable major league player. He does not appear to be that right now.

I'm so flattered to be labeled a "Howard hater" for the insane idea that he should be evaluated by his actual production rather than hometown hero worship.

I'm dating myself here, but I imagine the Sir Alden trio as an updated version of Ernie Kovacs' "Nairobi trio." For the youngsters, it was three guys in gorilla suits "playing" instruments and occasionally hitting each other in the head.

They didn't really do anything to change Michael Taylor's swing...they just let him go back to his old swing from before Stanford...back when he was a top top prospect.

NEPP- I think you are right, which is why I said 'whatever they did'. We just have to hope that somehow Texas was doing something wrong (i.e. encouraging him to continue to swing Stanford-style) that the Phillies can avoid doing and thus help Mayberry improve. My point was that due to Mayberry's age he needs something to click that hasn't clicked in his previous time in the minors. Change of scenery has been known to work on occasion, lets just hope that this is one of those times.

The Pirates have "aggressively ramped up their pursuit" of free agent reliever Will Ohman, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Sounds like you need a week off, watch some hoops and have a couple of cold one's.

Am I the only one that thinks that Ohman is being a bit ridiculous...the most he's ever made in a season is $1.6 million (last year for the Braves). Considering that its the final week of March and he's still unsigned...wouuldn't you take a legit offer at this point, especially if its over $1 million?

"'Howard is terrible in the late innings' yet the opposing Manager kills his bullpen the 1st game of every series, trying to avoid sending in a RH to that same Ryan Howard."

Engaging mikes77 rarely leads to any intelligent discussion, and usually just results in being called a name. But I really need an explanation -- even a BAD explanation -- as to how a manager is "killing" his bullpen by sending a LOOGY in to face Howard.

I was just surfing through b-r.com's new beta page.

Was surprised by a couple of things when sorting through batting stats.

Only 14 batters who qualified hit .300 in the NL last season, and only 18 of them did it in 2007.

That's between 6 and 9%.


bap, you, like phaithful, are wasting your time.


Let me repeat this for you:


mikes = Founding Member, Sir Alden Trio

Albert - I guarantee you that Mayberry is ready for MY big league team. Yeah, he strikes out, but if you want to talk about strike outs, let me tell you about another player who strikes out a lot. His name is Ryan Howard who, by the way, is also ready for MY big league team. Just kiddin with ya, Pal. Stay well, and keep your eye on Mayberry. You'll get an eyeful.

Howard also walked a ton in the minors as his .381 OBP shows.

No Phils announcers today?

Paulino trade wasn't a "bad move" at all. Phils traded a catcher (Jamarillo) who they though was no longer a prospect for a veteran catcher who had shown some previous success at the MLB level/wasn't that young. Frankly I would have rather them make this type of move instead of signing a guy like Barajas or Fasano again.

Phils are probably just looking to move Paulino to free up the starting catcher role at Lehigh Valley. Don't know if they are that down on him. Just want Marson get most of the PT as they try to figure out if he is going to be their guy at C come next year.

Best "move" the Phils made this offseason might be just buying out Eaton's contract entirely. This really was a change of pace from an organization that has been pretty unwilling in the past to cut players making a decent buck (even during the season).

As for Eaton's performance/comments in Baltimore, it is evidently clear that nothing has changed with him in his demeanor, attitude, and performance. Instead of going through a spring training with him as a malcontent and taking innings away from other candidates, the Phils just decided to cut their losses entirely in a professional manner.

Say what you want to about Park's ability to be a successful starter but he clearly showed up to camp in great shape/ready to compete for a starting rotation spot. Ditto for Happ. Guaranteed Eaton would't have down the same.

Listening on XM with the Astros crew. They are so full of praise for their former player,Bruntlett,they apparantly never heard of Beerleaguer.

I do not know the rules about service time in baseball. But how many games into the season would the Phils have to wait to call up Mayberry and not have his arbitration clock not count for a full year? The Rays did this last year with Longoria. The might be sending him down to save money, and also for the other reasons mentioned.

Eric Bruntlett IS a World Champion afterall. I still remember the day we traded Geoff Geary, Michael Bourn and prospect Michael Costanzo for THE Eric Bruntlett. I knew then that we'd be the favorites in the NL. My memory's a little hazy but I think they also tossed in some middle reliever to even the deal out a bit but Bruntlett was the centerpiece.

I highly doubt they're worried about Mayberry being a "Super 2" guy...

MG, great points about Eaton.

We should thank our luck stars that the FO is now operating in that fashion. It doesn't mean they'll always make the right decision, but at least they seem willing to try to put the best team on the field - no matter what.

It wasn't always that way.

As far as Paulino is concerned, I disagree. Charlie was quoted this in the paper this morning as being "unusually" critical of a player, namely Paulino.

It made me wonder, in my post above, about Paulino's "coachability".

That may be a problem, and the reason Pittsburg was willing to let him go.

Rev - I believe it's 12. Longoria came up on April 12th or so last year and opening night was the 30th or 31st.

Why not go with the lineup we had gone with in the past vs Lefties?

Rollins
Utley
Werth
Howard
Vic/Ibanez
Vic/Ibanez
Feliz
Ruiz

While we did have Burrell hitting 5th last year when we did this instead of ibanez hit vic 5th and ibanez 6th chances are howard makes the last out of the inning anyways vs a lefty and vic is leading off.

The main problem I forsee is in the later innings vs a LOOGY when we face a righty that day with a
Rollins
Vic
Utley
Howard
Werth
Ibanez
Feliz
Ruiz
Lineup

Mayberry right now would be our best option to PH for ibanez in that situation unsure how I feel about that but that is our one weakspot I feel.

The "super 2" date changes each year, because the cut-off is based on a percentage of players, to wit:

--The top 17 percent of players with at least 2 but less than 3 years of Major League service. These are known as “Super 2” players. To qualify as a Super 2, a player must have accumulated at least 86 days of service in the previous year. Historically, the cutoff point for Super 2 status is 2 years, 128 days of service, though the requirement has been as high as 2 years, 140 days in years past.

Read more: "How Baseball Arbitration Works: MLB Rules Governing the Eligibility and Process of Arbitration" - http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/how_baseball_arbitration_works#ixzz0Ayo8xcKu

I know Mayberry is a guy to keep our eye on, I think I would just be cringing though a season if Howard hit 4th followed by Mayberry. 365 K's sounds good.

Alby / Sophist: Thank you

NEPP: I wasn't thinking that he would be a Super 2 just eligbile for Arb a year earlier then if they held him back some. I will read the link posted by Alby later and come back with more questions most likely then answers.

Carson: i was bored at work today and found you 2008 'Howards'.

Ryan Howard had 5 Howards in 2008.

May 14 vs ATL
July 5 vs NYM
Aug 26 vs NYM (wow, this game had everything)
Sep 24 vs ATL
Sep 26 vs WSH

Now that i've actually spent time into, I'm going to use Retrosheet and see if I can generate a list of all of the Howard's ever done in the bigs. I'll let you know if i have any luck generating.

NEPP - In re: Ohman's salary request

Beimel just signed for $2MM. How much less do you think Ohman is worth? I think someone will give him at least $1.6MM.

AWH - Maybe Paulino is "uncoachable." He certainly was a out-of-shape malcontent last year for the Pirates.

Still trading a guy (Jamarillo) who likely wasn't going to get more than a cup of coffee with the Phils wasn't a big deal. It was kind of like the Golson-Mayberry trade.

It is not likely that one team comes away with a true "steal." You are just hoping that you get a guy in return who can contribute at the MLB in a secondary role. If Mayberry does for the Phils even as a reserve OF for a season or two, it likely was a decent trade for the Phils.

Yeah, the clock question is relevant whether or not you're young guy could be a Super 2. You get 6 years of service time no matter what. Super 2 eligibility only effects how many arb years the player gets (4 if S2, 3 otherwise). If Mayberry spends 172 days on the roster, he's played a full year. If he spend 167, the Phils get another year out of him down the road.

The concern is less severe the less you're worried about what the player is doing in 2015. Does any one really care what Mayberry is doing in 2014? I can see the O's worrying about Wieters and the Braves about Hanson and Schafer as the Rays did about Longoria and the Brewers Braun. Mayberry is not close to this universe. I suppose it couldn't hurt to keep him off the roster for a few weeks just in case.

MG, we agree.

I was only pointing out that Charlie had some 'sour' things to say about RonnyP in the paper this morning.

As we all know, Charlie keeps things behind closed doors, particualrly if he has a problem with a player.

Very, very rarely does he ever call a player out publicly.

For him to do so with Paulino seems to indicate a high level of frustration with the player.

you heard it here first folks--bruntlett win's the starting 2B job from utley by mid-may. i see a gnome-riffic batting title in the works this year, people!

Sophist: That was the point I was trying to make. Not that I think Mayberry will be some Super stud but in case he is pretty good this is a way to save some money down the road. Some guy from Philly did say "A penny saved is a penny earned"

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