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Wednesday, February 04, 2009

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Short answer: YES

The only "speedy" CF option in the minors is Quintin Berry (who MIGHT start at Reading this year).

Unless I'm missing someone, which is possible. Otherwise, we move Werth over and plop Jenkins in RF. A guy that can cover CF if Vic goes down for a few days or for spot starts would be nice. It'd be nice to have a guy on the bench thats a legit basestealing threat like Michael Bourn (Why'd we ever trade him again? I'm sure we didn't get anything of value back in that deal)

Justin Christian. FA, from Yankees system. All OFs and 2B. Maybe he can't hit (lots of GBs) but he's fast.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Phillies are no longer interested in Will Ohman.

Still looking at Aurilia and Nomar though.

Unequivocally - yes. Werth isn't an adequate CF defensively and this team doesn't have anyone in their minor system who could contribute for 2-3 weeks if Victorino went down with a calf or hamstring pull.

Wonder if we ate Jenkins entire salary if the Giants would trade Winn for him? He would be a great fit here.

per mlbtraderumors....."The Phillies had been confident of signing Ty Wigginton before the Orioles offered two years."

Somehow I doubt that...Wigginton wouldn't come here...he'd never get the ABs he'd want.

Wiggy is going to split time in Baltimore with Mora, Huff and Luke Scott so it's not like he's walking into a FT job. For him it sounds like it was all about the number of years and money.

Isn't Javon Moran basically a poor man's Michael Bourn?

Unfortunately I think we will have to scramble to fill that need should it arise.
RH bench player who has some pop and LH reliever are current priorities and there is not much roster room or payroll room to do more.
RH outfielder with pop ,who can play CF better than Werth , who comes at a reasonable price, and will be happy as a bench player is quite a set of specs to fill.

When is Howard's arbitration hearing? I feel like the Phils are waiting to find out how much he will get before signing anyone else.

The Phillies don't necessarily need a major league backup other than Werth at CF, but certainly a qualified AAA replacement would be a good idea. Damon Hollins, .220/.318/.408 in AAA last year, isn't it. It is probable that Victorino goes down for 15 days again.

Maybe we could trade Eric Bruntlett to Houston for Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary...

MPN: "Isn't Javon Moran basically a poor man's Michael Bourn?"

Yes. Exactly.

Zolecki's first post is up on Phillies.com. Click my name for it. He provides a run down of the quest for the power RH bat. He posits that Manuel may decide that he's okay with Dobbs, Jenkins, and Stairs... That'd be a very "man bites dog" development.

****MPN: "Isn't Javon Moran basically a poor man's Michael Bourn?"

Yes. Exactly.
****

Funny, I was thinking Michael Bourn was a poor man's Michael Bourn.

Isn't Javon Moran basically a poor man's Michael Bourn?

Posted by: MPN

More like a destitute man's...

On the team chemistry argument from the last thread, the 1980 Phillies had bad blood chemistry. Pete Rose whipped them into shape.

The 2008 WFC has good chemistry. I would think that chemistry has to add an incremental win here and there over the course of a season. A bad team with good chemistry will win a few more games than it should, finishing only 20 games out of first place instead of 22 games back. For the Phils, it may have meant making the playoffs these past two years.

Andy: That's pretty bad then considering Bourn lit the league up for an OPS+ of 57 (!!!) for his 2008 campaign.

I'm all for letting a guy learn on the job but Bourn was brutal last year in every aspect of the game other than SB...good thing the Astros weren't trying to make the playoffs...oh wait.

Giving him over 500 PAs is unforgivable.

(I have been known to exaggerate for effect.)

LF: I would say that the 1993 Phils had worse "blood chemistry." But that's just conjecture.

NEPP - Unforgiveable, maybe. But they traded Josh Anderson, who would've been the replacement, to Atlanta for Villareal.

Wasn't Chris Roberson a poor man's Michael Bourn?

****NEPP - Unforgiveable, maybe. But they traded Josh Anderson, who would've been the replacement, to Atlanta for Villareal. ****

Could you imagine if the Phillies had ever had a GM that would do something like that?...good thing that's never happened.

Why BLer is better than the average comments on the Phillies...

From Zolecki's article on MLB.com in the comments section and I quote,

"I agree Mayberry is goona be a stud, but you don't want him sitting on your bench getting cold when he could be playing everyday in the minors."

I'm sorry, WHAT?!? Mayberry is gonna be a stud???

There are people who post ridiculous statements on here too. (mvptommy)

a poor man's michael bourne is a track star who has never played baseball before.

Jroll Werth and Vic will get about 100 SBs over the course of a season - that puts you at league average arleady. Throw in another 20 fom Utley and Bruntlett combined, and the Phils should be around 5th-6th in the league.

It would be nice to have a speedster type on the bench, but the glaring need for a RH bat outplays the luxury of having some more SBs.

king myno: Roberson was a poor man's Javon Moran.

Ahh, another day in BLer world where they know better than the front office and beat writers of the team.

I don't know much on mayberry but his numbers aren't horrible. Obviously not as much power at Howard but they aren't shabby.

This guy hasn't even played a game for this system yet and already people are saying he isn't going to be a stud.

MVP, be a dear and actually go look at his stats...he's 25 in AAA and he CANNOT hit RHP. By definition, he is not a stud.

mvptommyd: You seem confused. I don't think anyone here is saying he won't be a stud. They are saying he is not now and it is premature to suggest he will be. But then again, you often seem confused by Beerleaguer.

The quote obviously got messed up. What Zo' clearly meant was "I agree Mayberry is gonna be a stud[ent at some colllege after he gives up being a baseball player], but [seriously] you don't want him sitting on your bench..."

Obviously.

CJ - Mayberry won't be a stud. It may be premature to say this: he may someday be a serviceable corner outfielder.

Hee!

mvp - here's the way it works: X makes an assertion and backs it up with credible evidence. Mayberry, Jr had a .316 OBP in AAA last year and a 3/1 SO/BB ratio. I think there's a good argument that he's not a likely "stud." I've never played a game in a Phillies uniform either: is it premature to say that I won't be a solid MLB player as well? This is not to say that I'm not in favor of the Golson swap in general. I'm going to guess the FO knows more about baseball than I do. Doesn't mean I'm not entitled to an opinion. Do you prefer a fascist state in general?

As for Vic, I think that's low on the list of needs. I expect him to play 130+ games and that Werth is a more than adequate replacement in CF when Vic can't play. Yes, that means Jenkins may have to play RF but he'll have his time over there anyway. What if a LHP starts? That's just another reason why a RHB is a higher priority.

To clarify, this was a comment from someone else in regards to Zo's article...not a comment by Zo or anyone else connected in anyway to the organization.

Am I the only person who would rather have Damion Easley over Rich Aurilia? I feel like Aurilia gives us no flexibility at all. At least Easley can play all the IF spots and LF.

I'd rather spontaneously combust than have Easley.

Werth is adequate as a backup CF. Who did we have last year -- Taguchi, T.J Bohn ? Speed would be nice, but with a 5 man bench, it is tough to have every need covered. I think NL bench is primarily about pinch hitting, so I think the most pressing bench need is a right handed facsimile of Greg Dobbs. Otherwise, we will see way too much Bruntlett. I could see the Phils opening the season with only 11 pitchers -- which means Stairs and Jenkins could conceivably both be on the team.

Aurilia played 1B, 2B, and 3B last year and never has played in the OF, yes.

Easley hit .269/.322/.370 last year and is a .266/.336/.432 career hitter against LHP (a high BABIP, flukey 2007 aside, he's been significantly worse than that of late, e.g., .287/.328/.380 last year).

Aurilia hit .321/.377/.526 against LHP last year and .305/.354/.545 over the last 3.

Unless you're concerned about injuries, Aurilia > Easley. Flexibility is important (the Phils don't have much of it) but for a RHB on the bench it may not be highly important that he can play OF. I'd rather he provide at least the threat of not making an out (and some power too).

I don't know why I said Easley has been significantly worse than his career no. of late when the no. posted last year is almost identical to his career line. I apologize.

Easley is the deathknell of teams playoff aspirations...he's never made the playoffs despite playing in 1,708 games now.

No thank you, I'm not interested in that type of jinx...also Sophist has a more logical reason listed above as well.

Steve's Whiskers (BB) -
I'm not sure you can choose to spontaneously combust. (But if so I might, in those circumstances, join you.)

I just don't get it....Aurilia's only place to play next year is 3B (unless he plays over Chase or Ryan against tough lefties) and we already have a RH and LH 3B.

Easley is a better baserunner, a better fielder and can play OF as well as the positions Aurilia plays.

What happened to Grudzielanek?

Bruntlett played some CF in Houston and from what I heard at the time of the trade he played it fairly well. I think that is enough of a backup plan since Werth can play CF as well. Charlie never actually put Taguchi out there anyway, so there is not that much to replace.
As for the RHB off the bench, Aurilia has good platoon splits, but so does Coste (though not quite as good). I think I would rather see them spend money on a reliever, and let Coste/Paulino start the season as our RH bats off the bench (until that stud Mayberry is ready to come up from the minors).

NO to Easley.

Grudz is still available but I doubt they go that route since he can only play 2B.

i despise Easily. Every game I attended vs. the Mets he ended up with a 4-5 type night with either huge hits with men on, or dinky infield singles to start rallies.

I trying to search through the league to find a RH version of Matt Stairs with a similiar contract situation.. not easy. I can't imagine having an effective bench with Jenkins and Stairs both on it.

That's the other thing....Easley will probably cost $800K (he made 950K last year). Aurilia will probably cost $3.5 million.

Grudz can play 2B, SS and 3B

Grudz hasn't played 3B since 1995.

Jonesman-
Not dis believing you, but my mental picture of Bruntlett in CF is not very pretty.

Bubba: you're not alone on that one.

re: Werth in CF

I guess I saw much differently than others did last year when Werth was in center, I thought he filled in pretty well. I dont think he would qualify as a defensive replacement, but he plays center well enough to spell Vic for off days or an injury.

"No thank you, I'm not interested in that type of jinx...also Sophist has a more logical reason listed above as well."

You're idea is perfectly logical, just severely irrational. ; )

Not many pictures (mental or otherwise) of Bruntlett are pretty, and obviously if he had to play center for any period of time we would be in trouble. All I am saying is before the season you fill the holes you have, not the ones you might have. Vic and Werth being out at the same time is not very likely in my opinion, and if it did happen we could sign or trade for a Kenny Lofton type to fill in.

I've watch easly when he was in florida, and he had some big hits against Phils. He also hit pretty good against us last year if I remember right. I myself would like to have him over Aurilla.

I thought Werth was our starting CF??? That's what Charlie said last year afterall.

NEPP-
Charlie spent the off season studying defensive sabremetrics and reading up on BeerLeaguer and has come around to our way of thinking.

I like it....the Damion Easley bandwagon is starting to grow.

the Damion Easley bandwagon is starting to grow

How can it not? He's such an amazin' stud - even at 38 - with 2 out of the last 10 years over .250. I bet befoire the day's out even clout and b-a-p will be clamoring for Ruben to sign him immediately to a 3 year deal.

I think "number of mediocre backup center fielders in MLB/AAA" is the only category where the Pirates exceed the Phillies.

No way in Hades Aurilla goes for $3.5M if Wiggy only went for $3M a season. Aurilla would be a nice addition to the Phils bench though and is probably only looking at a $1 year $1M type deal.

I was away for a few hours. I thought all BL posters were already studs or studettes like phargo and doubleh. I've never seen Mayberry post here, so, he ain't no stud!

Actually, BL has been going through a studless period, talking about a lot of bench prospects. I can't wait for spring training and the regular season to start.

Damien Easley? Yecch. He reminds me of one of those Phillie killers that would suck as a Phillie. The patron saint of this group was Endy Chavez. Killed the Phils as an Expo, came here and sucked, then went to the Mets and resumed mauling the Phils. Easley strikes me as one of those guys that if you backed out his numbers against the Phillies would pretty much blow. Like Tim Redding come to think of it. How come all these losers end up in Flushing and become the bane of our existence?

If Aurilia is only asking for $1 million then I'd sign him AND Easley and send the Gnome packing.

Easley against PHI last year (59 PA): .404/.466/.577

Say it with me everyone....Easley! Easley! Easley!

Seriously the Phils must have gotten into the Mets heads pretty bad. A few of their pickups the past couple of years:

Brian Schneider, Easley, Endy Chavez, and Tim Redding.

Paul Malholm(actually good) and Kip Wells will be next.

I forgot Chan Ho Park was the guy who was accused of grooving one for Cal Ripken in the Allstar game.

Let hope he never faces anyone going after milestones or future HoF on their way out.

Brian Schneider...good one the phaithful. I forgot him. He definitely qualifies.

Picking up on part of Jason's topic, I may have missed it, but how has Paulino done in the Carribean games?

I just visited http://morehardball.blogspot.com/ and voted in their poll question of who will win the 2009 World Series. To my suprise, 55% pick the Phillies! 116 of 209 votes wnt to the Phillies. 2nd place went to the Mets with 16 votes (7%) and the Yankess were 3rd with 13 votes (6%). At last some respect!!!

Too bad that Wigginton didn't sign here. Would have been the right-hand bat the Phils needed off the bench and as a likely insurance policy for Feliz.

Does it kind of say something that the Phils are kind of aggressively seeking another right-handed bat you could play at 3B alot this year?

My bet is that the Phils are much more worried that Feliz is going to be able to play and be productive than they have publicly let on.

Too bad that Wigginton didn't sign here. Would have been the right-hand bat the Phils needed off the bench and as a likely insurance policy for Feliz.

Does it kind of say something that the Phils are kind of aggressively seeking another right-handed bat you could play at 3B alot this year?

My bet is that the Phils are much more worried that Feliz is going to be able to play and be productive than they have publicly let on.

Compare Easley's LHP no. to Bruntlett's. Guess what: Bruntlett is better. No value-added.

They don't strike me as being overly aggressive.

Grudz+Beimel=WFC2

More specifically,

vs LHP 2008

Easley: .287/.328/.380
Bruntlett: .254/.361/.380

Do we need two Eric Bruntletts?

baxter, why Beimel and not Ohman?

2008 against LHB

Beimel: .278/.330/.311
Ohman: .200/.257/.314

And Beimel is a Type B.

I've always liked Grudz...he's very underrated. Its ashame he's fairly limited position wise. I like the fact that he actually hits both LHP & RHP fairly well so he can't be neutered by a pitching change. If he could play anything other than 2B/SS it'd be a bit more easy to bring him on board. If Utley was expected to miss significant time, I wouldn't mind seeing him as a starter for a month or so. Luckily for us, Utz is supposed to be back in early April.

sophist: you bad boy, I usually look to you for proper context on stats!

Last year was an outlier for Easley vs. LHP. The year before his OPS vs. LHP was 1.041 (outlier in other diection)!
Career numbers vs. LHP:
Easley: .266/.336/.432
Bruntlett: .269/.358/.396

Easley gives you more power, Bruntlett more OB.

I'd take Grudz over Easley any day of the week...Easley is a jinx.

And So Taguchi is a good luck charm.

clout - yes, i didn't provide proper context. Guilty as charged. I was partly just confused by his inconsistency against LHP, and went with the previous 3 yrs, with the 07 fluke removed:

03 (38 PA): .184/.184/.263
04 (98 PA): .149/.245/.287
05 (59 PA): .333/.390/.725
06 (124 PA): .245/.339/.425
07 (101 PA): .371/.446/.596
08 (119 PA): .287/.328/.380

clout - Just to fill out the stat stuff, what were Easley's splits like in the five years before that? I haven't looked, but I know he stank it up generally.

I'm thinking MG's onto something with the third base thing. Other than Wigginton, they've looked at Nomah and Aurillia seriously, guys who're better at corner IF than anything else.

On Grudz, meh. If you pick him up, you need to dump the Gnome and still get a RH power bat.

Exactly.


Seriously though, there are far better options available than Damion Easley...You act as if he'd be this great panacea to help the franchise. At this point in his career, he's purely a 2B and he's not even a very good one. Why waste money on him?

Thanks, Sophist. That's what I thought. Those '03 and '04 are pretty outstanding. Unless you surmise that he learned how to hit lefties finally at age 35, then I'd say you have pretty much no idea whether he'll pound them or stink.

I wonder what his '08 numbers are like if you remove his ABs against the Phils (cause if we got him he wouldn't be padding his stats against us).

I wondrered why you started at 03 instead of 02 but now I see why:

02 (73 PA) .313/.370/.522

Who brought up getting Easley anyway? Its not as if there are any rumors that even mention this possibility. I'd rather see us get Aurilia who probably has a decent 200 ABs left in him...and plays corner IF positions. Utley will likely be back very early in the year so there's no need to get another middle infielder. We can get by with our internal options for a couple weeks rather than getting a guy that won't get any starts after Utley returns. Aurilia can split time with Dobbs/Bruntlett after Feliz injures his back in Mid-May (or earlier)

****02 (73 PA) .313/.370/.522****

Do you really think that 73 ABs that occurred 7 years ago is even relevant? Go off his last 3 seasons for relevancy.

Also, on Aurilia, he can spell Howard against tough lefties so he is able to stay fresh (.836 OPS for career vs. LHP)

NEPP: OK, you got it. Easley last 3 seasons vs. LHP:

06 (124 PA): .245/.339/.425
07 (101 PA): .371/.446/.596
08 (119 PA): .287/.328/.380

And your point is?

Wouldn't Grudzy be more expensive than Wigginton? If they couldn't afford Wiggy, how could they afford Grudzy?

I wasn't making a point, just saying that stats from 7 years ago are meaningless when it comes to what he'll do next year.

I don't want him for various reasons already listed. I'd rather see them get either an RH OF with okay pop or a guy like Aurilia that could step in at 3B if needed and spell Ryno against tough leftys. We don't honestly need another middle infielder unless they plan on eating Bruntlett's salary (which we all know ain't gonna happen). They (in their minds) have Bruntlett, Donald, and even Giles to fill in while Utley is getting healthy.

Just to be clear, I am NOT on the Easley bandwagon. But he is a better a hitter than Bruntlett and wanted to correct suggestions to the contrary.

NEPP: Aurilia is fine if you're willing to live with 4 instead of 5 outfielders. I doubt the Phillies are.

****Just to be clear, I am NOT on the Easley bandwagon. But he is a better a hitter than Bruntlett and wanted to correct suggestions to the contrary.****

Oh okay. Yeah, we have nothing to argue then as I completely agree with you on that. Bruntlett is the beneficiary of familiarity. Otherwise, the FO would have gone another direction considering how many mediocre IFs are on the market right now that have better bats.

Honestly, I have no idea how much Grudz would cost. I can't imagine he'd be that much as there aren't really any avaialbe 2B starting jobs out there and he's limited as a bench guy due to his lack of any other positions (he only plays 2B and a below average SS now). Wigginton is a far superior player to him right now and got paid accordingly.

****NEPP: Aurilia is fine if you're willing to live with 4 instead of 5 outfielders. I doubt the Phillies are.****

Stairs is a glorified DH...it wouldn't be much different than the 2nd half in 08 was. I'd also much much rather have a RH OF bat than Aurilia. I have no idea who that would be though. All the available free agent OFs seem to be lefthanded.

"better a hitter than Bruntlett"

That puts him in pretty exclusive territory then.

The 4 versus 5 OF thing is also a matter of definitions. Do you mean outfielders or "outfielders." If it's the latter, you can include Bruntlett and Dobbs; suddenly they have 6. Even Feliz has logged substantial time (more than Dobbs actually) in the OF.

Note that I am not counting Stairs (who is also an "outfielder"). I'm guessing Stairs, because of the defensive mobility questions, is the odd man out if they decide to keep another RH hitter.

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