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Tuesday, February 10, 2009

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I am sitting by my computer I just got from Dell, it has a 23 inch HD monitor and of course I am watching my dvd from the Phillies boxset from the World Series.

I am watching Game 5 in the NLCS against the LA Dodgers. Rafael Furcal had 3 errors in this game and DeWitt has grounded into more double plays than he probably did in a month in this game. What a memory.

Do I think the honeymoon will be over soon? No, not until at least the middle of June when it starts to get hot outside, and if the Phillies are faltering then.

The honeymoon may be over with Howard though, with his big contract comes even more expectations and the spotlight will be on him more than ever, if he falters early we could hear the CBP boo birds come out for a while. Up till now Howard has been treated with kid gloves. I think the gloves come off with this season.


Nice picture of the champagne glass, if me and my Mrs. were in it, it would definitely be a hazard, there must be a weight limit in that thing!!!!!

From last thread: I know everyone is going to rip on the BP PECOTA projections because it's easy, but before you do, go back and look at what the ESPN "experts" predicted for last year, then look at PECOTA's. Tell me which one predicted the Rays would win 90 games. See who did better overall.

My guess is that no matter what the start, even if the Phils are perfect, the vocal faction will be out hunting the eternal goat, Pedro Feliz.

PECOTA predicted the Rays would finish 3rd, behind the Yanks and Sox. Predicted the Indians and Tigers would beat out the White Sox.

How'd they do with last year's Mets? From a mets blog last Feb...

Baseball Prospectus has once again made its painstakingly-considered PECOTA projections for the new baseball season. Happily, the Mets are projected to finish first in the NL East by ten games. Based on this projection, some might even consider us “the team to beat.” (Hah!)

From the now defunct Zo Zone last Feb...

The folks at Baseball Prospectus would agree with Beltran: the Mets are the team to beat in the National League East. Its PECOTA projected 2008 standings has the Phillies finishing a distant third in the NL East at 84-78, behind the Mets (96-66) and Braves (86-76).

Baseball Prospectus has nailed the 1-2 spots in the NL East the past two seasons, so the projections can't be completely dismissed. PECOTA simply thinks the Phillies pitching staff is going to continue to struggle. The projected Phillies' rotation looks like this: Cole Hamels (14-8, 3.45 ERA last season), Brett Myers (11-7, 3.83), Kyle Kendrick (11-14, 5.35), Jamie Moyer (8-7, 4.25), and Adam Eaton (7-8, 5.18). Compare that to the projected Mets' rotation: Johan Santana (17-8, 2.94), Pedro Martinez (9-6, 3.37), John Maine (10-9, 4.03), Oliver Perez (9-8, 4.22), and Orlando Hernandez (6-6, 4.08).

Rich: "Up till now Howard has been treated with kid gloves."

Obviously, you're not talking about Beerleaguer posts.

Dave X: Feliz is the most defended, supported player on Beerleaguer. You and a half dozen others post instantly as soon as a critical post about him goes up. Not so with Howard.

EF: Outside of Jack, I don't know anyone who takes PECOTA projections seriously.

Clout: No I meant by the fans. Howard has enjoyed a long honeymoon with the fans no matter how much he strikes out. I would have loved to see Burrell strike out as much and hear things like 'strikeouts don't matter' and all of the comments like that, of course Pat the Bat didn't have as many HRs and RBI's as Howard either.

Every big star that has rolled through Philly has had to contend with the backlash of the fans here, Carlton, Schmidt, you name them and sooner or later, the honeymoon is over by the fans and their support can change direction.

Rich: I agree with that.

clout - ditto. Rich obviously hasn't stopped by here much within the last year, specifically last April and May when Howard was doing his best Dave Kingman impression.

As far as the fans at the Zen are concerned, they started to get on Howard last season too, so I really don;t know what Rich is referring to.

Expectations? Well, my expectations are for Howard to just continue to do what he does - hit for power and drive in runs.

Would I like to see him improve in certain areas? Sure - better plate discipline against LHP, cut down on strikeouts, lose some weight and be a better baserunner and defensive player.......

I'll wait until the end of ST to make any specific predictions, but I'll give you a little preview:

I think Ryan Howard will have a better year at the plate in 2009.

Obviously the first couple of games are going to be really special. I can't wait to hear the reception for our boys on opening night.

By the way, the mystery photo is from Caesar's Resort in the Pocono Mountains: the honeymoon capital of the world. Not that I am saying I've even been in a tub full of champagne.

Oh, and as far as the honeymoon for the team:

I think if the Phillies are in contention all year lost - within realistic striking distance - the fans will lay off.

Why? Because they've proven the last two seasons they can come from behind.

Met fans take PECOTA predictions seriously last two years. But back in 2007, when Phils picked to win, they scoffed!

Apparently their predictions are among the best, but they're still just predictions. If they said last year that the Phils would win again with Joe Blanton being in the rotation and that the Mets closer would be Luis Ayala by the end of the year, then I'd take it a lot harder that they picked the Mets again this year.

The people who make these "Pecota Projection" want you to think they are some highly scientific methodology for predicting future performance. In truth, it works like this. Some stats nerd looks at Ryan Howard's year-to-year peformance, then makes a wild-assed guess about what Howard's stats will be next year.

Here's my own wild-assed guess (call it a "BAP Projection") for Ryan Howard's 2009 numbers: .265/.385/.586, 47 homeruns, 134 RBIs. Those numbers could turn out to be right on the mark or spectacularly wrong. More likely, they'll turn out to be reasonably close but, by no means, dead-on. The same is true of his Pecota Projection.

I just think it's funny how much people rip on the PECOTA projections, mostly because they are an easy target, despite the fact that I think they are as accurate as any "experts". Now, I think their individual player projections are much more useful than their overall team projections, but again, check what PECOTA's track record is against the so-called experts.

And Clout, I don't really take any projections that seriously, but if I were to, I would certainly consider the objective methods of PECOTA moreso than people like Steve Phillips and John Kruk, no offense to the Krukker.

Despite all that, I still won't go out of my way, like some do, to disparage people who make predictions. Of course they're going to get a lot wrong; it's the nature of predictions. Does it really make people feel that much better to point out what other people (or simulations, in the case of PECOTA) got wrong? If so, that's kind of sad. There's something about the last thread, where everyone was making fun of PECOTA's predictions for the upcoming year (which, inherently is stupid because you don't have any results yet to compare against) that seemed really petty and somewhat pathetic.

A sick part of me always hoped the first Beerleaguer post to include partial nudity would feature either Alfonseca or Sal Fasano.

Is that the Feather Nest Inn on Route 73 in Jersey?

Hard to say about the honeymoon. If they ended up losing a bunch of players and the Mets and other NL clubs upgraded much more, I could see everyone tolerating a down year.

But since they geared up for a nice 2-3 year run and have a great opportunity to really become one of standout teams of the generation - it will be disappointing if they fail to cash in.

The way fans express that disappointment will be the telltale of how long the so call honeymoon lasts.

As of today I think that I will cut them slack for a decent amount of time, but it will be hard if they are loaded with this type of talent and start to get beat by lesser teams.

Sorry to go back to the last thread, but I just read the thing about Ali Larter being a Phils fan.

I don't care what her quote is but whipped cream bikini = page views. I think we have a winner, JW.

Re: Picture: I am extremely disturbed that the hanging picture frame is not centered over the fireplace.

You're welcome.

I figure $15.25 mil in "bad contracts" -- Eaton and Jenkins. About 12% of the payroll. The number gets higher if I add $3 mil still owed Thome. Wondering...how does that stack up against other teams? High? Low? Normal?

Jack: I don't think any of us are ripping on Pecota Projections per se. What we're ripping on are those who cite Pecota Projections as evidence to support their argument.

Pecota Projections are what they are, which is to say, reasonably educated predictions. Citing something that hasn't happened yet does not prove anything.

I think I might have stayed in that room. It looks a lot like the Pocono Caesar Resorts.

In some ex-Phillie news, Michael Bourn re-signed with the Astros for $435K.

My prediction - this is still Philly and it the only safe bet is that the fans won't boo on Opening Day because the good will karma will be so strong. After that all bets are off.

If they get out to a slow start in April again and finish the month under .500, you will hear some boos at CBP.

Read some Mets fans giving PECOTA more weight because of Silver's election predictions. Now that's a leap of logic. Maybe if we decided the standings with elections I could get the connection.

Sigh....we're not actually talking about Bill Pecota are we?

Jason, when you advertise "partial nudity" I want a nip-slip or something!

I'm taking the suggestion from yesterday's post and creating a Phamous Phillies Phans Database. Please email all known name of celeb Phils fans to me- weshouldbegms@hotmail.com

Yo, new thread

The fans will kill Amaro and Ibanez, I'm guessing pretty much everyone else will get a pass.

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