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Monday, February 09, 2009


From last thread on Phillies being best baserunning team in baseball, per Bill James, and who was the worst baserunner on the team (Rollins, 5th best in baseball was #1):

OK, enough suspense. The worst baserunner on the team was Pedro Feliz at -16. Burrell was -3, Ruiz and Coste were each -7.

Some reasons Burrell wasn't nearly as bad is he committed 3 baserunning outs (Feliz committed 5) and his GIDP% was 8.9% (Feliz was 15.3%). Burrell also took 11 extra bases (Feliz 9).

The stud baserunners were no surprise: After Rollins we had Vic +34, Werth +28, Utley +21, Bruntlett +11, Taguchi +5, Jenkins +1, Dobbs -2, Howard -7 (worse than Burrell).

We were all remembering how horrible Burrell was on the basepaths (and in the field) with his aching foot in 2007, but the fact is he was much better in 2008 and not nearly as bad as we thought.

Awesome. One thing though, I'm not so sure about Clooney as Amaro. How about Esai Morales? It's a matter of trading talent for resemblence, so the movie wouldn't be as good, but you'd have to beat the hell out Clooney's face to un-pretty him to Amaro's level.

You can't sell Paramount on Esai Morales.

Will that be the "Syriana" era Clooney to match Jr's gut in the above photo?

What was Ibanez baserunning stats last year?

From the last thread:

A Mets fan told me today that Jayson Werth is no better than a 5th OF on any other team than the Phillies.

How's that for denial?

This from a guy whose team had Fernando Tatis as a starting OF for most of last year.

As we all know, Burrell is very slow - but at least he know it and is smart about it. He isn't aggressive and doesn't take risks on the basepaths.

From last thread:

The worst baserunner has to be Feliz. Clout wouldn't bring it up otherwise, right?

I'm not surprised that the Phillies were the best baserunning team in baseball. While many people here bemoan the team's lack of consistency and reliance "only on home runs" and want more "smallball", some of us have noticed that the Phillies have been an exceptional baserunning team the last couple of years.

If I recall, Utley was actually rated the best baserunner in the game either in 2007 or 2006, by that same Bill James study. Rollins had a simply amazing 47-50 performance stealing bases last year, and Vic and Werth were great as well. Probably the most underrated aspect of this team, and one that I'm sure will continue to be overlooked as people still insist on caring too much about strikeouts and home runs.

There were times where Burrell had trouble scoring from 2B on a homerun...

It would be a 'tv movie'. Appear only on CN8.
Benjamin Bratt as Jr.
James Gammon as Dallas Green.

JW: I'm pretty sure you can't even sell Allstate on Esai Morales.

Jack: I understand your sensitivity about Feliz. There was no stronger advocate for bringing him here than you last season. remember? Gold, Glover, will hit 20+ HRs, etc. etc?

To your credit, after three-quarters of the season was over, you conceded that just maybe he shouldn't start vs. RHP.

We are making progress.

Boy, Burrell really inspires some man-love from a few BLers.

Not that bad a baserunner -- lol!

Flipper: As is often the case with you, facts sometimes trump your opinions.

If Charlie Chaplin was a little older, he could play Jamie Moyer.

Right. Just my opinions. And Cholly replaced Burrell on the basepaths whenever he had a chance because......he wanted pinch-runners to get some exercise?

johnny: Ibanez was 0, slightly better than Burrell, although keep in mind he played in a far friendlier home field for baserunners.

I kinda like the fact that we're so old-school

Ned Beatty for Manuel?

Ned Beatty for Manuel?

There's an ironic W. Virgina 'Deliverence' joke locked in there somewhere. Maybe Carson could unlock it.

from last thread(paraphrased)

clout: i'm not arguing that Feliz is the worst baserunner on the team.

when you said burrell's DP% was 8.9 and Feliz was 15.9, that is a GIDP while they're on the basepaths correct? If so, than it is hard to blame Feliz for a large portion of the DP% when it was Chooch's bad habit of hitting into DPs in the 8hole that led to such a high %. So his +/- may have taken more of a hit than it should have.

Feliz is slow as dirt but I bet his % of GDP is also due to the fact that he tries to pull every pitch in creation. Inevitably results in his share of weak grounders to the left-hand side of the INF. I would bet almost everyone of his GDP was a 6-4-3 with 1 or 2 5-4-3 mixed in there.

Well, since others are reposting from the last thread:

"How 'bout that, clout! I nailed the top three.

I did that just thinking about the games I had watched.

Hmmmm, maybe watching the games DOES matter and it's not ALL statistics.

Maybe leviculus thomas peur is righ.....oh, wait."

And this repost:

"NEPP, Mets fans are a very unrealistic bunch.

Over at metsblog thay are still under the misguided impression that they have had a better team the last 2 years, and that their team just "choked".

I guess people call them "chokes" when it happens at the end of the season, but good and bad streaks happen to all teams in baseball at different time of the season.

The 1916 NY Giants had two seperate winning streaks of 17 and 26 games, the latter of which is still the MLB record. They also had seperate losing streaks that season of 8 games/once, 6 games/once, 5 games/once and 4 games/twice.

Despite the huge winning streaks they went 86-66 and finished in 4th place.
The Phillies, in 2007, were under a lot of pressure to get out of the box in April. Yet, they "choked" the FIRST 14 games of that season to a 4-10 record. Had they done that the last 14 games.......

The Mets, OTOH, had a record of 5-9 the LAST 14 games in 2007.

By pure record alone, which was the worst "choke"?
The fact is the Phillies HAVE been the better team the last 2 seasons.

Now, their evaluation of players - Werth is one example - takes on the same unrealistic bent.

In their minds, their players are always better, other teams' players are always defficient, and therefore, the only explanation they can come up with is their team choked - not that they got beaten OVER THE COURSE OF A 162 GAME SEASON by a better team."

Stat confusion!

I believe in Clout's stat the DP% for Feliz would be when he is the runner on first, so his hitting style would be irrelevant. What would be highly relevant is who hits behind you, and as Phaithful said, Ruiz was a DP machine, whereas the two players who I imagine hit behind Burrell most often would be Vic and Werth. Werth never hits in to DPs, and Vic is super fast, so I imagine he does not hit in to many either. This seems like a flaw in the base-running stat to me. Much like RBI totals are warped by the hitters in front of you, this # is warped by the hitters behind you.

All that being said, I was shocked at how slow Feliz was when I saw his first few games as a Phillie.

Ned Beatty- squeel like a pig...Deliverance is a messed up movie.

I was thinking someone better for Manuel, Brian Dennehy.

#3 in baserunning with a +52... Matt Holliday. You gotta think that the OFs playing very deep and the wide wide gaps out in Denver has to be a big part of that.

The thing about Burrell is that while he was slow as hell, he was also a smart baserunner. So while I'd rather have J-Roll on the basepaths, I didn't have to worry about Burrell getting thrown out on something stupid, like I would for Howard or even Vic--who definitely let his youthful exuberance get the best of him on a basis that wasn't so much frequent as it was consistent. I mean, I'd still rather have Vic on base... but it definitely doesn't surprise me that Burrell wasn't the worst on the team.

You can't sell Paramount on Brian Dennehy. Eddie Murphy in a fat suit.

Theory: good points. Burrell was the same way in the field too, he wasnt your first choice, but you had a good feeling he wasnt going to miss a diving catch and turn it into a triple.

I don't care what the stats say on this one, I will never forget the image of Burrell heading towards third, a base Utley happened to be STANDING ON, and yet, as Burrell approached, he still SLID! Into a base that his teammate was standing on!! I can't remember the game or why that blunder happened, but I'll never forget that ridiculous image.

I guess an Eastwood quote abou Burrell's baserunning prowess applies:

"A man has got to know his limitations."

At least he slid...

One thing about the A-rod thing, is there a chance that Puljos breaks the HR record? I don't think there is any doubt he is clean as whistle, he would clean up the record.


Any respectable met fan would say the phillies were a better team last yr. They were, no denying it. But respectable met fans (not some of the idiots on metsblog who post repetitive garbage just to get a rise out of other posters), know that by no means did the mets "choke" last yr. You cannot choke by being behind in the standings for almost an entire season. 2007 was a choke because the better team lost out. 2008 was a dogfight and the phils came out on top. Not every met player is better then the phils, just most ha jk..player for player I would take the mets..same with the mets rotation..whether that makes me an "unrealistic" met fan then so be it.

Pujols is entering his Age 29 season and he's currently at 319 HRs. Thus, he's 443 HRs away from tying the record and 444 from breaking it. He'd have to average (easy math here) 44.4 HRs a season through his Age 38 season...if he plays 14 more years (through Age 42), he'd have to average 31.7 HRs a year. Pujols doesn't really hit a ton of HRs (42 per 162) so it'd be tough for him to match.

How about Jimmy Buffet as Pat Gillick?

He can supply his own wardrobe which is an important consideration in the cash-strapped times we are living in?

I have actually been pleasantly surprised that the BL phans haven't allowed the media's obsession with A-Rod to completely take over the finest baseball blog on the 'net. The Howard signing was huge on so many levels.......

And we'd need some player/manager cameo's of course:

Brett Favre as Geoff Jenkins?

Ben Afflek as Adam Eaton? It's perfect: they both suck at what their paid to do.

Forrest Whitaker as Ryan Howard? ( a little old I know but...would be cool). Maybe Keenan Thompson if you need someone younger

Manuel would be better played the guy who played "Pappy" in O' brother where art thou. Though Ned Beatty is a ringer as well

Cheech Marin as Dave Lopes

Tom Cruise as Chase Utley

Ryan Reynolds as Pat Burrell

Ludacris as Jimmy Rollins?

Common as pedro Feliz?

Man work is boring today.

I think you guys are a little mis-informed about the general feeling of Mets fans. We DID feel in 2007 and going into 2008 that we were the better team. Epic collapse, etc. However 95% of us know for a fact that the Phillies were/are better in 2008 going into 2009. The only thing that would make us better is signing Manny Ramirez, and that aint happening. We're excited about our new bullpen, but for all we know, they could blow it too. We're all nervous about the offense since, while you ugys have great roleplayers filling out the bottom of your lineup, we have 2 pieces of **** that cant play baseball, Castillo and Schneider. Between the two of them they combine for one tool. Castillo can steal a base. So yeah a quick visit to Metsblog will find mostly negative feelings about our team this year.

Especially since our GM is retarded and wont sign a good lefty reliever so there will be an open roster spot to "motivate" all the bad pitchers he signed.

Jonesman, phaithful: Good point about the speed of the batter, but keep in mind the DP% is but one of numerous elements that go into James calculations. And, by the way, Ruiz is not that slow.

Perhaps there simply aren't any available Latino LOOGYs? Its difficult to fill one's roster when your GM only signs Latino players...

I do believe that the toughest casting choice will be to play the part of Pat Burrell. Who/what fits the bill? Man or machine?

ZT -
It wouldn't surprise me if anyone was previously on Roids at this point. It is hard to say Pujols is absolutely clean especially since he is huge.

Also I think Miguel Cabrera is the only player that projects even in the ballpark of the HR record. I don't think he will do it of course.

****Scott Boras says Pat Burrell "took a bad deal" when he signed for two years and $16MM on January 5th. Boras says Burrell's contract froze the market for corner outfielders. ****

Read: Burrell screwed over some of my clients and cost me money...yet in reality made a smart play.

I hate Scott Boras.

Good point CY, I guess it's really not certain he didn't take them. However, if nothing more ever comes out about who did or did not take steroids, we would know that this is a good man who does plenty of charity work and no one has ever said a bad word about him. Puljos would give a good, clean name to the HR record again.

And thanks NEPP for the stats. I guess it would be a little hard for him to do it seeing as the clean ones usually dont hit 40 HRs going into their 40's.

Boomhower as Charlie Manual.

"Here’s how it’s done in Philadelphia. Build a nucleus of stars from within using a high-risk, high-reward approach to the draft, then keep them."

J: I'm a little surprised we've gotten 45 posts into this thread & clout hasn't jumped on you for this comment. So I'll do it instead. We all know the Phillies have a high-risk, high-reward philosophy to drafting but the players who form their present core are not really products of that philosophy. Guys like Utley, Howard, and Burrell were all drafted out of college and Rollins, while toolsy and young at the time he was drafted, already had a pretty advanced sense of strike zone management. I guess you could say that pitchers like Hamels, Myers, & Madson were all high-risk, high-reward types of picks, but pitchers are really a different animal than everyday players when it comes to drafting.

The bottom line is that, on everyday players, the Phillies' best draft picks have come when they have departed from their general philosophy of spending early draft picks on toolsy, unrefined players.

Agreed. By all counts he is a good and charitable guy. I just don't think that precludes him from doing roids. By all counts Pettite and Giambi are good guys.

I like Pujols and would love for a guy of his character to get the record (assuing he hasn't doped).

I dont think there's really any player you can safely assume is clean and always has been clean.

Anyone else remember that ST where Abreu came into camp completely ripped and had put on 30 lbs of muscle in the offseason through a "great workout plan" I think it was 98 or 99. Great workout or roids?...we'll never know.

Robocop as Pat Burrell

Rich Aurilia signed a minor league deal with SanFran. So if Nomar doesnt decide to play this year...specifically with us...looks like Chris Coste may be our RH bat.


Ray Durham is still out there...he's a decent RH bat.

Well, technically he's a switch hitter but he hits well from both sides of the plate.

Weitzel - Deliverance took place in Georgia, not West Virginia. And no, I'm not from WVA. Just sayin'.

Having been to both WV and Georgia...I'd say its a toss up as to which is scarier if you're not from there.

Durham has only ever played 2B in his entire career.....we don't want him.

Huh - I always thought it was W. Virginia all these years.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Phils sign a 1 or 2 players (especially a veteran OF) to minor league deals. Allentown should be much better opening the season this year but they are still likely going to be a couple of positions (including the OF) where it wouldn't hurt to sign a veteran league player.

I would love Costey to be the RH bat off the bench. Whether Cholly would like to admit it or not, Coste can play quite a few positions. I'm not sure I want the Coste fairytale to end.

What's the difference between using a 3rd catcher as a RH bat or a 2B only guy as a RH bat off the bench?

Ashame Aurilia signed elsewhere as he was a better fit. Grudz is still available.

How about Cameron Diaz as Ed Wade?

By couple positions for Coste, you mean C and 1B?

He hasn't played 3B in years and then only at the AAA level.

"I don't think there is any doubt he is clean as whistle, he would clean up the record."

I think there's plenty of reason to doubt that Pujols is clean, given how many players are turning out to have juiced. Its not really a safe assumption that anyone is clean today, which is the whole reason why the A-Rod thing is a big deal (and also why it probably shouldn't be; everyone was doing it and it wasn't against the rules in 2003).

So players didn't have to obey federal law back in 2003? Good to know.

I'm sure he can still play there. Just because he hasn't played there in a while doesn't mean he totally lost the ability. Besides wasn't that his main position? He only learned to play catcher because they were more in demand, right?

104 players tested positive in 2003. Under 10% of players, far from everyone.

The whole DP% while being a runner is a bit of a weird element to include. The runner on first is almost always a dead duck on a groundball in the infield unless he is moving on the play. Hitting into DPs would be a better element alone in my mind(which James uses), since the GIDP relies very heavily on how well the batter runs out of the box.

Ah well, I dont know the exact forumla so I trust Bill James used what he had the best way it can be used. Good ol ledfoot Feliz, keep flashing that leather!

Schilling is a loudmouth jerk at times but he is 100% right about releasing the names of the other 107 players who tested positive for a performance enhancing substance in 2003. Otherwise this stuff for continue to fester for all the players of this era.

104 is a lot of players, though. Gotta be some big names in there(that we don't already know of)

Andy Garcia should play Rubes and they should get William H. Macy to play Ed Wade and the opening scene of the movie should be William H. Macy calling clout's buddy Marcus Hayes and "officious #$%^."

That's the 104 that hadn't either stopped due to the possibility of testing and/or switched to HGH and other undetectable PEDs.

Yeah i hate how there are alwasy these list we hear about yet only know the ones who excel.

My guess is that 100 of the 104 players are a bunch of bums who sucked before PEDs and sucked after PEDs and would help contribute to the stance the steroids really dont make you that much better, they just give you an extra edge that wouldnt be there when you're older or playing hurt.

Just like a corked bat, its cheating, but it really only gives you a few hundreths of a second in bat speed. 95 times out of 100 those extra bits of batspeed wouldn't even matter.

Dont get me wrong, those extra bits are still cheating and uncalled for, but the impact isn't as overwhelming as these lists and reports are making it out to be.

Get David Mamet to write the screenplay and find some of his regulars for the cast. Joe Mantegna as Ruben Amaro Jr. Macy as Ed Wade. Ed O'Neil as Charlie Manuel.

And i wish someone would just come out and say it. Giambi apologized, but never actually explained himself. Pettite said he only did it one time ever, yea sure....

Why can't someone who doesnt have any hidden agendas(Canseco) just come out and tell the truth. Bonds is to a point where he is facing jail time!!! What an idiot. Just tell the truth and its over. Why can't he just say he did steriods and why he thinks/doesnt think that it led to him breaking the all time HR record, and what he gained from doing it and what happened once he stopped.

Canseco is looking better and better as far as his accusations go.

Rich Aurilia heading back to San Fran on minor league deal...RH bench bats slowly disappearing.

I'm liking Andy Garcia as Ruben.

I can't find the numbers on Michael Clarke Duncan, says he 6'5, so that is actually right around Ryan Howard. G'dam Howard is a beast.

The studly Pat Burrell might have to play himself since he'll be unemployeed by time the film comes out.

And any childstar that isnt quite done puberty should take care of Hamels.

Cards just outright released 2B Adam Kennedy at LaRussa's did LaRussa walk in on Adam doing his daughter or something?

Funny thing to do when you now owe your former starting 2B $4 million to sit at home in 2009.

pat burrell would have to be played by Jon Hamm aka Don Draper.

Speaking as someone who was not overly thrilled when Amaro got the job, I have to give kudos to him and his crew for the bangup job they've done this offseason. At least on the surface, they've maintained and perhaps even improved what was a WS winning team. Additional props to Montgomery for recognizing that Amaro, not Arbuckle, was the right man for the job for where the Phils are at now since it really was mostly about negotiating and contracts and not scouting at this point. Of course to maintain, they'll need to continue building the system, but they've kept pretty much all the scouts anyway.

On another note, I heard Randy Miller interviewed this afternoon and he was asked about Kyle Drabek. Miller said the Phils are as high as they've ever been and think he is a future #1, even though he'll be in A ball and coming off TJ surgery. He cited Zagursky, Drabek's roommate, as being particularly impressed with his arm and maturity. It would be nice to see because we're going to need some cheap contracts in 3 yrs.

I've always thought Jim Carrey looked a bit like Hamels. He would chew the h*ll out of the scenery with all the "ya knows" in his post game interviews. He's too old, but ILM can take care of that.

I was thinking Terrence Howard as Lopes, and he's a local, you can't have all big names in your production...gotta have some character actors to round out your cast.

Eric Close (Without a Trace) could play Utley. He's a dead ringer for him and is just as wooden in front of the camera. Sorry, Chase. He's also from SoCal so he could do the accent/attitude.

Two thoughts on A-Rod and I'll leave it at that:

1) Let's drop the A-Rod is a victim meme because the tests were supposed to be secret. He's a cheater and there are consequences.

2) Why go on 60 Minutes and tell Katie Couric you never cheated when you know you did... and you know there is a positive test out there proving you did? It is the height of arrogance.

But, but he only broke federal laws because he didn't think he'd get caught!!! How is that his fault?

Sean Penn as Jamie Moyer. Dude is a method actor, so he'd probably actually want to pitch against/beat the Marlins before he'd start filming the the movie.

Paul Rudd as Chad Durbin. Brings some lighthearted comedy to this tension-filled drama (I mean, look at the cast--they're all heavies).

Somebody stop me: I could do this all day. And I had to work yesterday so I'm pretty exhausted and am looking for any excuse not to do work.

Michael Clark Duncan as Ryan Howard?

Arod admits all. Says the big contract he got from Texas put the pressure on and he gave into that pressure by taking substances to help his performance.

Admits lying in previous interviews and admits doing it for the entire time he was in Texas.

See... was it really that hard? Bonds and co. should wise up.

Totally legitimate then. What in the world was I thinking saying he was wrong to break Federal laws???

Oh wait, total BS Arod!!!

They should lop off all the HRs he hit while in Texas from the official record book...dont change the outcome of the game but say that officially he only has 397 HRs instead of 553. That would be hilarious.

Said this the other day on here on Sat. before the A-Rod thing broke:

Funny thing is that if Bonds (or Clemens) just had came out and said something all the lines of "I wanted to be the best I could be on the field since I have been a top competitor all my life. It led me to some choices I regret now and that I hope others do not necessarily follow (etc)."

Regret and Contrition. A 5-10 speech with the sports media during a news conference one time and the American public would have largely forgiven Bonds or Clemens.

What does ARod do today? Exactly this. Comes out today with a brilliant PR approach and some obvious coaching to give the perfect answer to each question on ESPN even if he doesn't believe them or is sincere (which I doubt the validity of both).

Say what you want about ARod but he is 100% smarter and more savvy than Bonds or Clemens when it comes to preserving his reputation with the fans/media. Americans almost always forgive even if the person giving them an apology is likely 100% full of BS and would likely do it again especially if they wouldn't be caught.

Is it just a coincidence that all the guys who've admitted over the last year or so to taking PED's are current (or were current when they admitted) Yankees?

Considering he already lied on national TV in 12/07, he's a little late with this. But, at this point, it was the smart move.

Andy Pettite's probably a better example.

Pettite was real lame i think. He got caught, so he says that the time he got caught was the only time he ever did it? Yeah right.

Its a shame you have to be out'd in public to actually confess and then 'truly' be sorry. If that were the case they'd have come out long ago, they're only sorry they got caught.

Just glad the majority of the stars on the 08 Phils came up before the early 00's(do we call them naughts?) so they have little or no links to this mess.

Doubleh- it's funny that you bring up Jim Carrey and Cole Hamels being similar in appearance, because my buddy did a post on that a week or so ago- link.

Ok, so that link doesn't work. Try this one instead- linklinklinklink.

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EST. 2005

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