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Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Comments

Good for Bobby (that he's signed and its not with a team I hate).

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20090211_Phillies_prospect_Donald_has_Hall_of_Famers_in_his_corner.html

Great article on Jason Donald in the paper today...David Murphy has a good blog post about him too.

Just as I was coming to terms with Raul Ibanez being a Phillie, an at least equally good player and probably better player in Abreu signs for 2 years and many, many, many millions less...ugh!

So if Ibanez waited till now he would get roughly 4mil per year offers from teams?

Reposted from the previous thread:

Was surfing over at metsblog.

I saw this link:

Ted Berg of SNYexpects a regression from some members of the Phillies bullpen.

He makes a decent point, but I have to say, when the media types are so far behind the curve (the issue of bullpen regression has been discussed here for at least three months) it makes me wonder whether they surf blogs for material.

Hello, Teddy.....only an Koolaid drinker wouldn't have expected that.

What a MOTO.
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Berg also posted a link to a THT sitewhere fielding "stats" can be sorted.

Shane Victorino was #9 amongst CF for plays made "out of the zone" (OOZ) rating.

Believe it or not, Ryan Howard was #15 among 1B, but last in fielding percentage(FP) (no surprise there).

Some people's favorite punching bag, Pete Happy, was #24 among 3B in OOZ, but #3 in FP. I guess that means his footspeed keeps him from getting to balls, but that he fields cleanly what he does get to.

BL and fan favorite Chase Utley, was #8 in FP, but 3! in OOZ plays made at 66 plays out of the zone - a whopping 15 above the next closest 2B. That would seem to support some posters' contentions here that Utley is a very underappreciated defensive player.

Jason Werth made ZERO error in RF, but his OOZ number was low probably because he wasn't playing full-time all season.

JRoll had the highest FP and was #5 in OOZ, indicating that his GG was well deserved.

Met troll favorite "Jose Jose Jose" Reyes finished in the middle of the pack in OOZ, #15, and in FP, #13, indicating once again that he is probably overrated defensively, and that the Koolaid drinking writers and fans in NY tend to overvalue and overrate players wo get a lot of media exposure.

Take a look at the site. Very interesting. Caveat: It's defensive stats.


Good for Bobby. Bad for corner outfielders. Bad for Manny and Dunn.

That should say Utley was #1 in OOZ plays.

So you think Adam Dunn will get more, equal or less than Abreu?

I'm thrilled that Mets didnt get Booby, $5mil is a steal. I'm one of the Ibanez defenders, but this makes his deal look worse and worse. I'm not a booby fan but I know that he's a good player and should probably be worth more than Ibanez.

Told ya Utley was very very good defensively...its not just the red koolaid.

When you think about it, the Angels and Yankees basically swapped the bats of Texeira and Abreu.

The Angels cost: $5MM for one year.

Yankees cost: $180MM for 8 years.

Defense aside, is Texeira's bat at an AAV of $22.5MM worth 4.5 times what Abreu's is?

Some technical issues with posting. Bear with us.

Mets trolls were here? It's fun to be the champs and have fans of also-rans come over and be bitter. Thank goodness we're not Nat fans.

AWH: Kind of hard to believe that Feliz, declared by Jack, Dave X, kdon and many, many other Beerleaguers to be the best fielding thirdbaseman in baseball would be 24th in OOZ since that measures range, which is probably the most important component of fielding.

As for being #3 in FP, he was .974 while Dobbs, who is despised, was at .971. Not much diff, no?

Something here doesn't compute.

not to beat a dead horse, but I have to point out that not only did LA get Abreu for $25M less than Ibanez, they also didn't give up a first round draft pick.

Hey- its not my money! oh yeah, it is...nevermind

However I will say, since Howard is signed, I no longer care about the cost benefit analysis. I only cared about saving money for his sake.

"Kind of hard to believe that Feliz, declared by Jack, Dave X, kdon and many, many other Beerleaguers to be the best fielding thirdbaseman in baseball would be 24th in OOZ since that measures range, which is probably the most important component of fielding."

So, just to be clear for future discussions, are you saying that OOZ is the most important fielding stat available?

Or is there another stat that you prefer, and if so, how did Feliz rank in that one?

This thread has all the makings of a doozy: Abreu/Ibanez/Feliz/

baxter - Maybe I'm misunderstanding you. If you have the choice between spending ~$10M on player X and ~$5M on player Y, all else being equal, you only care about the $5M difference because it's money that could be spent on Howard?

What about the players that could be acquired, either pre-season or mid-season, with that $5M?

RZR, which means balls in the zone that were converted to out, has Feliz T6 in the bigs at .714, where Dobbs is the second worst for all 3B with .611 (Lamb .602).

So for balls that are hit to 3rd base, Feliz turns 10% more of them into outs than Dobbs - i'd say thats pretty substantial.

The RZR is much lower for 3B then other positions, which I believe is a good sign that these stats are pretty legit, since balls are hit much harder at 3B than other positions.

Ibanez was clearly the guy the Phillies wanted. Not Burrell, not Dunn, not Abreu, not Manny, not a platoon.

While the market was taking overall, the Phils did have competition for Ibanez-Mets/Angels. And according to Seth Everett, if the Phils didn't sign him when they did, the Mets or Angels would've gotten him a day or two late. They got who they wanted.

I worry about year three a little and I do think they overpaid for him, but some of you need to have a little perspective.

I do think they overpaid for him, don't get me wrong, but the "O

and not to isolate one year..

Feliz RZR in 07(.747) again translate into 10% more outs than Dobbs in 07(.644).

Also, Feliz ranks 5th in OOZ in both 07 and 06. So either his range drastically fell or the hto corner plays a lot faster in Philly than SF.

"Also, Feliz ranks 5th in OOZ in both 07 and 06. So either his range drastically fell or the hto corner plays a lot faster in Philly than SF."

Could the player outside of his zone (Rollins) impact that as well?

Abreu was never an option.

Bed Beard: "This thread has all the makings of a doozy: Abreu/Ibanez/Feliz/"

That made me laugh out loud!

"This thread has all the makings of a doozy: Abreu/Ibanez/Feliz/

Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard"


Hey BB, I'm happy to contribute my share of controversy.

I'm really surprised no one has commented yet about the overrated troll doll who mans SS for the Mets.
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phaithful, does RZR account for balls hit out of the zone that are converted to outs, or what percentage of balls hit out of the zone are converted to outs.

The reason I ask is, if not, it seems to me that a CF could theoretically have a RZR of .000. For instance, in a twilight zone world he could field 200 ground balls hit in front of him for base hits. Not one being converted to an out - his RZR would be .000.

Am I correct?

Because if that's the case then, then by not accounting for "circumstance" (i.e. 'how' the ball was hit into that particular fielders zone - whether someone was on base that could be forced out or thrown out trying to advance) RZR doesn't tell me a whole lot.

stjoe: I just looked at this stat today, but common sense would tell me yes, however, a high OOZ 3B woudl take away from a SS, not the other way around - as a ball must elude a 3B before a SS can take it 99% of the time.

Speaking of common sense - i forgot to use it in my last post. Feliz dropped in OOZ because of his playing time, as OOZ is a counting stat and not a rating.

Phils 3b in 2007: 53 OOZ plays
Phils SS in 2007: 65 OOZ plays

Phils 3b in 2008: 48 OOZ plays
Phils SS in 2008: 69 OOZ plays

Pretty small samples here... but i guess you could say that the less OOZ from a 3B lead to more for the SS.


stjoehawk: "So, just to be clear for future discussions, are you saying that OOZ is the most important fielding stat available?"

Not at all. Most of those stats have too many outside factors built into them to be more than rough measures. I'm just trying to reconcile the huge gap between the perceptions of Beerleaguers like yourself about Feliz's mighty prowess and this particular stat.

thephaithful: So let me get this straight, this fielding stat that is used by posters here to declare so-and-so a great fielder might actually be measuring factors that have nothing whatsoever to do with his fielding ability?

Imagine that.

"I'm just trying to reconcile the huge gap between the perceptions of Beerleaguers like yourself about Feliz's mighty prowess and this particular stat."

So you've cherry-picked one particular stat in which (coincidentally) Feliz doesn't look good in 2008.

I guess you win. Good job.

AWH: Check the glossary on the site for RZR - Revised Zone Rating.

It only tracks the balls hit to a player in their respective zone. So if a player makes a OOZ play, it does not afect their RZR.

For your CF analogy, I do not know how they deal with groundballs. I'd think they only measure balls in the air where outs can be recorded. So if a ball falls into their zone somewhere uncaught, thats a negative play on their RZR.

stjoehawk: Um, I picked nothing. AWH posted the stat. I merely reacted to it. But I will take note of your (wise in my opinion) skepticismn of that stat and remind you of it the next time you use a fielding stat as the end-all, be-all.

thephaithful: So let me get this straight, this fielding stat that is used by posters here to declare so-and-so a great fielder might actually be measuring factors that have nothing whatsoever to do with his fielding ability?

clout: not sure i follow, what is the fielding stat you refer to?

phaithful: OOZ. You said Feliz's weak showing might be caused by playing next to Rollins.

phaithful, kkay, but still, theoretically, a CF could have a RZR of .000 because of 200 line drives hit in front of him that he had no chance to catch.

Or are those discounted as well?

My point in posting a Caveat above is that they are all imperfect measures.

Now, assuming all stats even out or 'normalize' one could expect 2 CFs who both played 1200 innings in a season to see pretty much the same thing hit their way.

But that doesn't account for the competition, does it? Are the opponents a FB or line drive hitting team?

As clout said, many of the fielding stats are really rough.

The reason I brought up OOZ is because, while a counting stat, it can reasonably be used to compare 2 players at the same position who played the same number of innings. So can FPct.

IMO, RZR is a less perfect measure because a ball could be hit into a fielder's zone which he has no chance to convert to an out.

That said, I think Feliz played well in the field last season, and turned some key plays in the postseason. However, I find it hard to believe that Dobbs is THAT much worse a fielder than Feliz as RZR would suggest.

My eyes did not tell me so.

OTOH, I didn't need stats to tell me Utley was a good fielder. They merely confirmed what I already knew.

Same with Ryan Howard. I didn't need the stats to tell me he has a great deal of room for improvement.

So according to Ted Berg ... relievers only allow less home runs due to luck and not improved pitching?

And I am SO tired of CPB being called homer-happy, it's right on the league average.

clout: i actually tried to say the opposite. That Feliz(or any 3B) ability to make OOZ plays would lower Rollins OOZ chances.

And to really get this discussion going...

Ibanez RZR was .893 while Burrell finished at .829. Burrell had 3 more OOZ plays (46-43).

Which leads me to ask, How the F$#@ did Burrell make 46 plays out of the LF zone? I wonder if Zones are specific to players or based on laegue average?

Like, is a zone what the mlb average lf gets to , or is burrell's zone determined by his own ability, which would make anything over 10ft away OOZ for him.

The argument that Abreu signing has no merit on what the Phils paid Ibanez is one without merit. Both are veteran corner OFs who are in their mid to late 30s.

Basically, if you buy an asset at $30 dollars and it turns out that relatively the same asset could be bought for $5 dollars a month or so later you severely misjudged the market. That is what Amaro did.

Ibanez may produce at a solid level this year for the Phils but the issue is that the Phils had to give up a 1st round pick to sign him and more importantly pay him big dollars the next two years.

Amaro was 100% right though in not offering arbitration to Burrell. Burrell likely would have accepted arbitration and been paid a salary that would have limited Amaro's ability to deal with offer arbitration cases this year.

Not offering arbitration to Moyer though was a mistake. No other team likely would have been willing to cede a 1st round pick to sign him as a FE and the Phils would have had him would been able to resign him at a 1-yr deal.

It would have been a hardball technique that wouldn't have gone over well with Moyer but now the Phils are likely on the hook next season for $8M (and potentially closer to $10M if Moyer is able to give the Phils another season of 180 IP and 23).

All said, Amaro does deserve high marks for his handling of the arbitration cases but color me less-than unimpressed in his FA signings (Ibanez, Moyer, Park, Eyre). The only thing who would constitute as a "bargain" was Eyre and even he didn't come cheaply at $2M.

Of course tommy will rant and rave but reality is that Amaro clearly dramatically overpaid for assets on the FA market although he deserves a big thumbs up for not offering Burrell arbitration. His handings of the arbitration eligibles also worked out well. I would give him a B/B- this offseason for retaining the core of this team the next 3 years but this was largely due to the escalation in payroll which I don't know if the Phils' FO be willing to continue without such great revenues.

This is hilarious! Still with Feliz? The Phils did win the World Series with this guy, right?

So whatever the merits of the argument...

"I wonder if Zones are specific to players or based on laegue average?"

Phaithful:

THT's Glossary definition:

"Zone (Link)
The areas on a ballfield in which at least 50% of batted balls are handled for outs. Zones are standardized and defined separately for each position."

The argument that the Phils "won the World Series" with Feliz at 3B is ridiculous. Causation does not equal correlation. You could make the same argument that the Phils "won the NL East in '07" Nunez at 3B even though he was one of the worst offensive players in the entire NL.

thephaithful: It would be a pretty worthless stat if it wasn't based on a standard that could apply to all.

Funny that clout would immediately jump on the bandwagon to embrace a defensive "counting stat" when trying to make a point against Pedro Feliz(and for his boyfriend Geg Dobbs).
In the next breath he will belittle RBIs as a "counting stat" when talking discussing Ibanez vs Burrell.
Clarify for me again why this counting stat is better than other counting stats?

AWH: I agree that D stats can't be used as end-all assessments. I would argue that RZR is better than FP and OOZ tho.

If both players see 1200 innings worth of time in CF, then you'd think that they both get their even share of line drives. So if line drives are used in RZR, than if player X reads the ball better to catch more of those line drives, then his RZR would reflect higher than the other player.

I think this is the burning question: If we didn’t trade Abreu for nothing and paid Pat Burrell what we gave Ibanez, even though Abreu somehow won a gold glove, do you think Feliz would have a higher OPS?

Whole Feliz thing is completely overblown.

What gets lost in the discussion is that 1st half Feliz was fine. Maybe Dobbs should have started a bit more against tough RHP but Feliz's offensive numbers in the 2nd half were horrendous.

Now part of his is certainly due to his lower back injury but the reality is that Feliz got way too much playing time down the stretch in Aug/Sept despite production that was so horrendous that Cholly basically benched him and went with Bruntlett (which also worked out poorly).

My bet is that Feliz's back injury didn't cure all of his woes and that he continues to hinder his power stroke/ability to stay on the field.

For $5 mill, the Phillies should have signed Abreu and had yet another left handed power hitting bench guy who could go in if there is any injuries....

Geoff Jenkins is making more than Bobby Abreu in 09...that's gotta hurt.

Rich,

a) the Phils don't have $5 million to spend
b) do you really think Abreu would sign here to be a part time player? Don't you think he is going to want to prove he is worth more than $5 million this season?

Feliz is overrated defensively here by some who sometimes act like he is a Schmidt or Rolen type defender. He is solid but not a GG level.

I will say that I do think Feliz is an upgrade defensively from Nunez. Much stronger and field arm that is a big deal on a club with a 1B who is poor at digging balls out of the dirt/on a bounce. Maybe only a difference on 8 or 10 balls a year (max.) but that is still 8 or 10 outs.

Skeeter: I was being a little facetious by saying adding 'another' left handed power hitter for the Phillies, but I think Bobby is a real bargain for $5 mill - who would have thought that they would only pay Burrell what the Rays did, and Abreu getting what he did?


mikey, mikey, mikey, clout did not promote Greg Dobbs. It was I.

clout merely commented on data I provided (which I provided to make a point), that Feliz is indeed a very good fielder WHEN HE GETS TO A BALL.

BUT, he doesn't get to nearly as many balls as other 3B.

I posted the data to inform.

However, I ask you to logically refute this comment I made(I won't assume you can):

"The reason I brought up OOZ is because, while a counting stat, it can reasonably be used to compare 2 players at the same position who played the same number of innings. So can FPct."

AWH: i will give you this..

Look at OOZ plays and amount of innings. Dobbs has 21 OOZ in only 329 IN while Feliz has 27 in 937 IN. Using Innings doesnt really give you the exact amount of balls they had chances on, but that is still some strong strong evidence that Dobbs gets to much more balls than Feliz.

I did a quick calc of OOZ per Inning. For 2008, Dobbs is among the top 5 at .064 while Feliz is towards the bottom with .028

Scutaro and Beltre had the best.

"If both players see 1200 innings worth of time in CF, then you'd think that they both get their even share of line drives. So if line drives are used in RZR, than if player X reads the ball better to catch more of those line drives, then his RZR would reflect higher than the other player."
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phaithful, we are not disagreeing. You're essentially helping me make my point about OOZ as well.

Part of how we judge the fielding prowess of players is by seeing how many balls they actually get to.

If the "zone" is a standardized area of the field, then it stands to reason that players who can get to more balls out of the zone have better range and are therefore, better, and more valuable fielders.

That's the value of using a "counting" stat like OOZ.

Keep in mind the difinition I posted above:

"The areas on a ballfield in which at least 50% of batted balls are handled for outs."

It stands to reason that at the edges of the zone the ratio is 50%, and in the interior of the zone(closer to the fielder) the ratio is higher and probably reaches close to 100% (factoring in errors).

Now, as we all know, the "measurement" of is an error is decided by an official scorer, and is there somewhat subjective.

But OOZ, I think, is best used as a measure of a fielder's mobility, which definitely affects how good a fielder he is. Because although it's a counting stat and is affected by the number of innings played, mathemetical adjustments can be made assuming ample sizes are large enough.

To wit, Werth had an 37 OOZ plays in 2008. Brian Giles had 72. Giles, though, played 1263 innings in RF. Werth played a mere 661. So it's fairly easy to extrapolate from those numbers, assuming you agree that 661 innings in RF is enough of a sample size, that Werth appears just as adept at getting to balls out of the zone as Giles.

Now, here's where the stats start to present a problem:

Jenkins had an 38 OOZ plays in only 642 innings in RF, which would seem to indicate he's as adept at getting to balls out of the zone as Werth.

This is where observation has to come in, because while I think Jenkins is a good fielder, he's not as good as Werth - he's just not. My eyes tell me so.
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But to wrap it up, the fact that Shane Victorino, for instance, can get to more balls than other CF who catch as well makes him a better CF than they are. Same for Carlos Beltran.

And the same holds true for every other defensive position.

Now, this isn't directed at you, but why is that so hard for some to grasp?

With Abreu signing with the Angels, does anyone think that a "change-of-scenery" deal could be worked out that would send Jenkins and a pitcher to Anaheim for Gary Matthews and cash to cover the contract difference?

This would give the Phils a right handed bat for their fourth outfielder and a solid center field backup plan should an injury occur.

MG: Good point. "You still think So Taguchi had a bad year? The Phils did win the World Series with this guy."

The implication of such an idiotic statement is that Taguchi had a great year and should be kept.

AWH: "This is where observation has to come in, because while I think Jenkins is a good fielder, he's not as good as Werth - he's just not. My eyes tell me so."

My eyes say the same thing. Which suggests that OOZ is useful, but not is a far rougher tool than any offensive stat, for example.

AWH: yes we both see the same thing. I would add that:

In the outfield, I think the OOZ is the best way to identify a fielder's range. Getting to the ball is probably the #1 thing for an OF.

Whereas the infield, I believe RZR holds more value. Range is nice to have, but getting to the ball is just step 1. Control, balance, and arm strength are all needed. RZR shows that a player is complete in all phases and can convert the out. Of course the higher the OOZ the better, but I would sacrafice some OOZ for higher RZR for my infielders.

thephaithful: Range isn't as important in the INF? Au contraire. It may not be as crucial at 1B and 3B, but it is extremely crucial at SS and 2B, more crucial than in the OF. Ask any pitcher.

agreed the fielding stats are rough, but Jenkin's 2008 does look like an outlier.

08: 642IN 38 OOZ
07: 973IN 41 OOZ
06: 1101IN 43 OOZ

Looks like Jenkins got more easy high flys that took him out of his zone than usual.

Nats sign Dunn for two years. No numbers yet.

FWIW, in 2007 Feliz had 62 OOZ plays (4th in baseball) and in 2006 he had 56 (5th).

this brings up the problem that I have with counting stats in fielding as opposed to rate stats. why did Feliz fare so much more poorly in OOZ in 2008 versus 2007-2006? Vizquel ranks in the middle of the pack in both of those seasons--is it just that San Francisco plays a different kind of defensive alignment than Philadelphia? (Rollins, as pointed out earlier, ranked 5th in baseball for OOZ in 2008 and in 2007.) is it that Philadelphia gets fewer ground balls or fewer ground balls to third base than other teams? how many OOZ chances did Feliz have in 2008 versus 2007-2006? how many chances did he have versus Adrian Beltre?

I'm not necessarily trying to defend Feliz here; personally I think the assessment of him as sure-handed but not very rangy agrees with what I see. but there are a lot of variables left out of OOZ that make it seem like a not-terribly-helpful stat to me.

for clarification, that's 0.457 OOZ per 9 inning in 2007 and 0.367 OOZ per 9 in 2006 for Feliz, versus 0.248 OOZ per 9 in 2008.

Apologies if this has already been posted, but I figured this would be useful for all Phils fans, and for JW's sidebar here:

http://zozone.mlblogs.com/

Todd Zolecki's "Zo Zone" blog now back on the web, this time at MLB.

True, didnt mean to discount range.

I guess I was trying to say that Range is pretty much all there is to outfield when making outs. You get to a ball in the air, its most likely caught. For the Inf, they can get to every ball in the world, but if they can't get on their feet and make the throw in time, no out will be made.

Personal preference maybe - but I'd rather have my ss/2b have a comparably smaller zone with almost no holes, than have a comparably wider zone with more holes in it.

Clout and awh both saying that A stat isn't as good as eyes and watching something. This is a day that will go down in BLer history. February 11, 2009.

ae: "Is it that Philadelphia gets fewer ground balls or fewer ground balls to third base than other teams?"

And it could also be that the infield grass at CBP is faster than the infield grass at Pac Bell, thus it is harder to get to an OOZ ball. That's the problem with these defensive stats. Too many outside factors.

Clout "too many outside factors"

That's the problem with mostly all stats!

Tommy: It's a defensive stat, meaning it's cruder and less tested by far than offensive stats. When you go off against OBP, you're taking on 25 years of SABR studies that say you're wrong.

mvptommy: Thre are stats and stats. Defensive stats are very rough measures. This is different that one of your idiotic statements like, "Abreu was terrible in clutch situations," which a stat can measure perfectly and thus easily disprove.

tommy: haha i knew that post was coming.

You should actually take this as some realization that we all do watch the games just as you do, and make judgements based on what we say. However, we also understand the relevance of stats more than you do. That is not an insult, but merely the truth. And since you might not understand some of the relevance and implications of stats, you choose to discount people who use them in their discussions, which is not intelligent on your part.

I'm not calling you incapable of understanding, but you either are not as familiar with them or just choose not to understand them. And instead of reacting to this lack of understanding by discounting and insulting others who use them, you should simply offer your opinion and disagree if need be.

"too many outside factors" That's the problem with mostly all stats!

Actually, researchers have worked very hard and more successfully than you'll acknowledge to neutralize the outside factors in order to isolate offensive abilities. Your constant attacks on statistics only make you look like a fool.

tommy boy, or, rather, leviculus tomas peur, that is NOT what clout and I posted or implied.

You are once again making a silly empty-headed attempt to twist what other posters have written.

If you had read the entirety of my discussion with phaithful, you would already know that. You, obviously, once again, didn't do any homework or take the time to read.

I'll make it easy for you:

The discussion clout and I engaged in involved Jenkins and Werth.

phaithful has already demonstrated that the stat I quoted for Jenkins was an outlier.

Read, tom tom, read.....then, if you still don't understand it go into the next room and ask you mommy to explain it to you.

If she can't, call your daddy at his girlfriend's house - maybe he can help.

Once you understand the conversation, feel free to comment.

If you don't, such as this case, go back to the porn sites you hide from your mommy.

Thephaithful; Fair point and you are correct. I do not put enough into stats. The only reason is as clout stated there are too many factors that can make them not as relevant. Like the HR total in the bank compared to turner field. There are nameless amounts that can be included.

tommy: dont feel too bad, others are complete jerks some(most)times including myself, and do the same things you do, it just seems that thats all you do lately.

AWH: don't be mad because I happened to catch you using a phrase "my eyes tell me so" that YOU continually ridiculed me for saying under any circumstance. Also that was a funny way to talk tough on the internet with a ramble.

Who thinks Will Ohman will be in Clearwater by Saturday?

Big mike: not me, I think they are pretty much done spending until teams start cutting players in spring training then they MIGHT, used very loosely , sign a RHed bat and lefty reliever.I have a hunch they will go from within on these or keep costey.

tom tom, Thanks for helping me make my point.

You cherry picked ONE phrase and took it out of context.


BTW, isn't that what you've accused others of doing here?

John, no apologies necessary.

I hadn't seen Zo's new blog, so thanks!

Dunn to the Nats 2yr $20mil.

Still a bargain in my mind. Hes 29 and coming off 5 straight 40 HR seasons - rare is an understatement.

Does this free up an extra OF bat?

Willingham, Wily Mo, Kearns, Maxwell, Dukes are all RHBs, while Willie Harris is LHB.

Hammer was just acquired this year.
Dukes has the most upside.
Maxwell is a 24yr old rookie that boast power/speed, but not highly touted.
Wily Mo is coming off a OPS+ of 34.
And Kearns had a dreadful 08, but usually was a decent player.

Add in Dunn and thats quite a logjam with 7 OFs. Thinking they gotta be looking to shed someone right?

From MLB Trade Rumors:

New information from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports...

The top free agent lefty relievers may sign this week. Will Ohman received three offers in recent days and four total (Mets and Phillies among them?).

So salary-wise, Dunn=Ibanez.

and Jenkins > Abreu

Definitely called the market wrong on Ibanez. As far as Feliz defense, he does have a hell of an arm and a really good glove from what I see watching all the games. His range does look limited though to me. And he is a really poor hitter. Dobbs vs right handers Feliz vs lefties. But Charlie got his gut and we will all follow the gut to WFC part deux

clout: Well... Dunn hates baseball and his lack of "fire" will infect the rest of the clubhouse.

The Phils were in the weird position this offseason of needing a corner outfielder but having two big names on the market, Abreu and Burrell, who they were simply not ever going to sign due to the team's history with them. (That much is clear for Burrell given that no real effort was made to even try to re-sign him--for whatever reason, they were never going to do it.)

So yes, they overpaid for Ibanez, but thats the guy they decided from the get-go that they wanted, and I'm fine with that. This team is in uncharted waters as far as payroll goes, so you can't really make the argument that getting some other outfielder would have allowed them to sign some other, better player. The chances are more likely that they'd be content with a $125 million or $120 million payroll instead. And they certainly weren't gonna bring Pat or Bobby back, so this really isn't much of an issue.

timr - Very valid points but if this team is going to repeat or even win another World Series this current core of players they better hope that Ibanez and Moyer both produce at decent levels this year because the Phils really don't have a capable replacement for either one and both are likely going be making big money next year ($20M or so).

timr touches on something...

Let's say we had signed another corner OF for less... or even Ibanez at somewhere between 5 and 8 million. I really don't believe this team would have used that "extra" money on something else. I think they targeted holes and were willing to spend what they think they needed.

The issue isn't just how misjudging the market on Ibanez constrains roster decisions this year, it also contrains roster decisions next year and, most disturbingly, in 2011. Also, in midseason when the opportunity to fix a hole comes up, but might require acquiring a guy who costs a couple million more, they might not be able to do it now. So, it isn't just a matter of saying, well, we signed Ibanez, but they would never have authorized $130 million payroll for anything else. There are real opportunity costs. Also, how do you know that the way things went is the only way they allow a $130 million dollar payroll? We have no idea.

The Zo Zone has returned, or for those not in the know- that is Todd Zolecki's blog, but now it's through MLB.com.

LarryinLA: You're right. We have no idea. That's why I said, "I really don't believe." There are no statements of fact. Just as you don't know that the Ibanez signing will affect the budget in future years. All we can do is guess.

timr/CJ: exactly right. Thanks for a little sanity on the issue.

Simply put: they got the guy they wanted at the right time, b/c he was likely to be gone shortly after. Same people who are "upset" about it probably were groaning about the fact they hadn't "made a major move yet".

The one thing that does stand out though now on Ibanez is the 3rd guaranteed year. Abreu got 1, Dunn got 2, and Manny is likely to only get 2.

Even if Ibanez performance dipped during 2010, the Phils could likely have explored the cost of moving him at the trade deadline if they wanted to. That option is really off the table and Phils just have to hope that Ibanez maintains his power stroke over the next 3 seasons.

So basically Ibanez is gonna have to have an MVP caliber season to justify his contract now.

Super.

To clout: We both know that So Taguchi was the KEY to our WS victory.

Obviously Junior missed the collusion meeting(s).

BedBeard: "b/c he was likely to be gone shortly after."

You have any evidence to support that opinion? I have evidence to the contrary.

Amaro has done well this offseason, but the Ibanez thing was weird at the time and ever weirder (a mistake at least in terms of money and years) now.

re: Mets fans. I was talking to a Yankees fan about Mets fans the other night. The main theme was: what's with these people? How many of you were at CBP last spring.. just a few months after the Mets embarassing and pathetic collapse of '07? Mets fans were out in force, pounding their chests like nothing ever happened. You just look at them like, seriously? Now this year they're all excited b/c they got bullpen help. That's great, but is Delgardo really going to carry the offense again? Probably not.

phaithful- Sounds like Dunn will play first for the Nats.

That's a good signing for them. It gives them a bigtime left-handed bat in that line-up which is not near as bad as you would think.

Dunn and Zimmerman are a pretty decent 1-2 punch in the line-up if they can stay healthy. Dukes and Milledge are both young guys with worlds of potential.

I wouldn't go so far as to say they will compete in the time of Dunn's deal but they have enough-should they stay healthy- to give teams in the division problems.

The Dunn signing looks like curtains for Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson in DC. Looks like the Nats are giving up on them.

Hey, speaking of DC, we hven't heard from "from the disrict" in ages.

People come and go, I guess.

Adam Dunn in D.C. in the '0s = Frank Howard in D.C. in the '60s.

NEPP: "To clout: We both know that So Taguchi was the KEY to our WS victory."
.
.
Actually, NEPP, based on his performance he was not the key, but based on the track record of the teams he's played for he's a nice Good Luck Charm.

Clout: Not to get back into the Feliz defense debate, but I never once said he was the best defensive 3B in baseball. I've consistently touted Ryan Zimmerman as the best defensive 3B in baseball, with Feliz in the next tier behind him, along with Wright and Beltre. I know you need to exaggerate, but you'd be better off just sticking with what people actually say. FWIW, I agree with the assessment that the OOZ and RZR stats indicate: Feliz is very, very good at the balls in his zone, but does not have top range. It's what makes him merely a very good defensive 3B, not the best.

BTW, how'd Wes Helms do in those stats? Let's not forget you wanted him to be our RH 3rd baseman last year. He would have had to be Brooks Robinson to make up for his 70 OPS+ last year.

It's clear now Amaro completely misread the market for corner OFs. Ibanez will be the 2nd highest paid corner OF FA this year (behind Manny), and he will have gotten the longest contract. That is completely unjustified given his baseball value compared to Manny, Dunn, Abreu, and Burrell. Just a terrible contract. Nothing against Ibanez, and I obviously hope he does well, but there's no argument to be made that it's a good contract. It's gonna be an albatross in 2011, and everyone on here, even mvptommy, knows that.


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