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Tuesday, January 13, 2009

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Drabek, if healthy, is pretty freaking close to top-flight talent.

I hadn't seen the "soft" label before on Carrasco. Hopefully they're wrong. He had a great stint in AAA followed up by a strong winter ball performance.

The view that Donald doesn't have the glove/range at SS is nearly unanimous as far as I can tell. That doesn't mean he won't have a nice career. He's got the arm to play 3B.

Marson has made a lot of errors over the years and I've read criticism of his mechanics behind the plate, but this is the first time I've seen someone question his arm.

Carrasco will go as far as his command can take him and right now there are questions about his command.

Carrasco made some huge strides in his command from 07 to 08. Check out his BB/K ratios from the two seasons and you'll see a significant improvement. He did really well in that area in the VWL too.

Marson seems like he'll be a good everyday catcher but I think his ceiling is a tad lower than people were thinking back last summer when he was going nuts OBP wise.

I'm excited about Drabek. The questions are head and health, but I think he can move past all that this season.

Carrasco 2008 #

AA - 114 IP, 45 BB, 109 K
AAA - 36 IP, 13 BB, 46 K
VWL - 47 IP, 11 BB, 45 K

His numbers in reading were pretty good but he got downright nasty once he moved on to AAA and the VWL.

****I'm excited about Drabek. The questions are head and health, but I think he can move past all that this season.****

Agreed.

Marson's arm is supposedly average at best.

I was much more impressed with D'Arnaud's arm than what I've seen of Marsons. Marson has a long throwing motion...D'Arnaud snaps the ball off (reminscient of a young IRod in style and form)

Note: I am NOT comparing D'Arnaud to Pudge in talent or anything else other than his style and throwing motion...please put that torch down.

I think this year will be key for many more of the Phils' system than previous years. We'll be able to make some comparisons that show whether young guys continue to develop in good ways (like Valle, Cisco, Stutes and Galvis), whether guys have had flukey years or made improvements (like Brown, Taylor, Marson and Donald), and we'll be able to see who can handle serious baseball (anyone moved up to AA).

IOW - There are a lot of people to watch seriously.

I suppose we could also watch Hewitt and Savery; but really, I'm not expecting anything out of either one.

BA sees D'Arnaud as trade bait.

Give Savery a chance. He could bounce back very strong this year. He finished 08 on an okay run (6-2, 3.50 ERA in his final 10 starts) His WHIP is somewhat concerning though...quite high for a supposed "blue-chip" prospect. His 2nd half numbers would look a bit better had he not imploded for a 1 IP, 8 ER performance in the middle of it.

****BA sees D'Arnaud as trade bait.****

That's ashame...alot of scouts rate him above Marson by a decent margin.

Okay, NEPP. I'm giving Savery a chance...let's see...

ice cube, sidewalk, Columbia S.C., July 17.


About like that.

That pretty much somes up his chances of being a legit MLBer. He could surprise us though...he is lefthanded afterall.

23 and in AA...he needs to start moving.

Off-topic question:

As Beerleaguer is to Phillies baseball, {blank} is to Eagles football ... ??

Where is the best place to go for Eagles news and discussion?

Thanks!

Looks like Braves offered 4 years and 60 million to lowe. That is a nice deal with this market.

In re: Lowe

Are we allowed to cheer if Lowe signs with the Braves? Their rotation is better with him and Kawakami, but they still have almost zero power in their line-up. I'd rather have him here, but since that ain't happening, I'd rather see him somewhere where it won't hurt TOO much.

And if he goes to ATL it prevents two days of BL downtime while the mets trolls dump arrogant stupidity all over our floor.

Atl signing him would be much better than the Mets.

I haven't ever seen Carrasco labeled as "soft" before today's report. Any thoughts on where this came from? Does he take himself out of games, miss starts, I'm a little confused.

I think talent evaluators always put a "hook" in their reports. They know that this is a crapshoot so they put the "but" in there to cover themselves if the prospect doesn't pan out.

I haven't ever seen Carrasco labeled as "soft" before today's report. Any thoughts on where this came from? Does he take himself out of games, miss starts, I'm a little confused.

I think talent evaluators always put a "hook" in their reports. They know that this is a crapshoot so they put the "but" in there to cover themselves if the prospect doesn't pan out.

sorry for the double post.

Where is Brown going to start the season?

Do you think Happ sticks in the pen until Romero comes back? It's becoming painful listening to all these guys signing when we have a hole in our pen until June and still are looking for another OF.

Live Arm

As Beerleaguer is to Phillies baseball, nothing is to any other sports franchise.

After all, BL is serious (well, Jason and one or two posters maybe)
and honest(you know, except when we engage in self-aggrandizing, disingenuous arguments)
...a great tool (actually some of the posters are BIGGER tools)
for fans of America's (not meaning that all of them LIVE in America)
most heartbreaking (before 2008's WFC)
franchise.

Carrasco: "Opposing managers and scouts use words such as "fold up" or "soft" to describe him, and he's prone to the big inning."

I definitely know where they're coming from with the big inning comment. That's accurate for sure.

You would think the Braves would've learned their lesson from last year and stayed away from an aging starter. Smoltz, Glavine, Hampton all missed significant time from injuries.

skeeter - I'm a little concerned with Happ in the 'pen. He was killer as a starter last fall, but rather sucked in relief. Not everyone can warm-up fast and be effective.

I think the normal course for Brown would be a Clearwater start with a possible mid-season move up to reading. But ST could change that.

skeeter -
Glavine was 42.
Smoltz was 41.
Hampton has been injured forever.

Lowe will turn 36 in June and has thrown 200+ IP 5 of the last 7 years. (The other two years were 182.7 in 2004 and 199.3 in 2007). Injury-wise he does not compare with any of those guys.

Maybe you're thinking of new Yankee Burnett or renewed Phillie Moyer.

In re: Lowe
In the four years before the seven as a starter, he averaged more than 100 IP a year as a reliever. He is not injury prone at all.

Sounds like a request to turn Beerleaguer into Philadelphia's best, all-purpose sports blog, covering Phils, Birds, Sixers, Flyers. I'm game.

Once upon a time there were serious questions about Hamels' head and make-up, too. Hopefully Drabek he'll just mature as Cole did, too.

If Savery doesn't show us something pitching wise this year, is it time to make him into Rick Ankiel v 2.0 or is this just symptomatic of some southpaw lag time effect?

Andy

So true - we can't get this anywhere else. BeerLeaguer, Jason, and many of its posters are a treasure that we are very fortunate indeed to be a part of.

Jason,

I didn't want to even dream that you would take that on ... since you do such an incredible job with the Phils and I know it must be a lot of work ... but I have to say I'm excited.

What with the curse of Billy Penn being lifted ... I am risking getting way ahead of myself and being very premature here ... are we witnessing the birth of a renaissance in Philly sports??

JW - One serious problem with the all-purpose thing:

Cowboys trolls...

MLBTR says the Lowe deal is done.

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/stories/2009/01/13/braves_lowe.html

I'm not sure I feel like cheering, really. Maybe more of a "phew..."

Smoltz was also injury free going into last year (3 straight 200 IP seasons preceeded by 4 in the pen) as was Glavine (I don't think he had a DL stint in quite some time). I know Lowe is 5 years younger than those guys, I just think it's a peculiar signing for a team that got burned by an aging pitching staff last year. They clearly aren't going anywhere next year....if I'm Atlanta I would rather sign a younger P like Oliver Perez for the same contract.

that sure isn't a bargain for Atlanta on Lowe, although it doesn't seem like a bad deal either.

wonder if NY is going to get burned now. they pretty much need Perez, and if Lowe is worth 4/$60 I have to think Perez is worth more than 3/$36.

Interesting to see if Carrasco is given a shot for the 5th starter spot in ST. He pitched more innings,198.1, in 08 at AA, AAA and VWL combined than any other Phils minor league pitcher. Was at the Reading game when he reached for his shoulder warming up and got stuck with Brett Harker as an emergency starter. But Carlos only missed a couple of starts. Should be an interesting battle between Park, Happ, Carpenter, Kendrick and Carlos for that 5th starter spot in ST.

Lowe a Brave- Boo! Better than being a Met though I suppose.

Marson is the starting catcher in 2010, and Carrasco and Drabek will be in the rotation by that time too.

Lowe signing with the Braves is not so bad. It improves that team but they're still not contenders, and it will hurt a little when the Phils face him but the Mets have to face him too. Glad he's not a Met!

4 years is too much for a pitcher that old but, then again, if you want to get your guy, you usually have to overpay. It took awhile to do it, but the Braves did manage to improve their team. With the additions of Kawakami, Lowe & Vasquez, they almost certainly have the best starting pitching in the division. Their lineup is pretty weak but, if a few guys have surprising seasons, it wouldn't shock me at all if they are in contention next year.

b-a-p: Agreed.
If the Braves are sucky next year, it won't be because of their pitching. Vazquez may be hittable and Kawakami is a mystery, but overall, it's a nice upgrade.

I'm sure that the main piece of agenda, as far as their GM is concerned, is to kick crap out of LAD this year.

Speaking as a baseball-only fan, I truly hope you don't go to all-sports format -- or, if you do, keep the threads separate so the baseball fans don't have to wade through a lot of crap about sports we don't care about.

i'd be hesitant to throw out the best "rotation in the division" crown to the braves. sure lowe is nice, and should do reasonably well for them. but vazquez has certainly never been a stud (he had a nice year in '07, but otherwise, that ERA+ has been bobbing 100 for a few years now) and who knows if kawakami will be a Kuroda/Matsuzaka or another Kei Igawa. i like jurrjens a lot but, to me, he has to prove he can last a whole season without wearing down like last year. and that leaves...jorge campillo as number 5 to start the season? meh. hudson may be back midseason, but even then, i think there's better rotations in the division.

I would rather have our starting 5 over the Braves. We have a WS MVP anchoring our rotation......

Issue with Drabek is his size. He's listed at 6'1" 190, but looks smaller. I see bullpen as his future.

Can we please sign a reliever? Let's say Chan Ho wins the #5 job and Mad Dog or Lidge get injured and have to go on the DL. That leaves us with a 7th/8th inning consisting of Chad Durbin and Scott Eyre. Am I the only one concerned about this?

This years NL Cy Young: 5'11", 170. I think Drabek will be fine as a starter.

"Cole Hamels was made of matchsticks."

I laughed. Still I don't think "Pictures of Matchstick Men" by Status Quo would make a good pitcher theme music.

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