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Friday, January 09, 2009

Comments

Nomar, no.
Kapler, yes.
Nomar stinks and can't play an inning at any position w/out commiting an error or getting hurt.
Kapler can at least fake it as a CF if Victorino and/or Werth get hurt.

Alby, ae: "Howard's lost 20 walks were the IBB he had been getting, so his eye is indeed consistent."

Whoa! Good facts, bad conclusion. Howard did indeed lose 20 IBBs, leaving his non-intentional BB total about the same. But HE HAD WAY MORE PAs in 2008 than in 2007! So while his non-intentional walk total remained the same, his walk rate was DOWN!

Subtracting Howard's IBB from his PA totals, you get 73 more PAs in 2008 than in 2007. And his non-intentional walk rate declined from 12% in 2007 to 9% in 2008. That's a drop of one-quarter, which means he was swinging at more crap and had a WORSE eye.

Gabe Kapler career OPS+ is 92.

I know it's foolish to disagree with Mikes77, but...

Over the past five years, Garciaparra has averaged one error every 85 innings. Granted that compares unfavorably with, say, Pedro "I Live to Defend" Feliz's 94.2 innings per error, but not by all that much given their respective hitting abilities.

Kapler, of course, being an OF has a much much better 159.6 innings per error over the past five years; that might indicate he's a swell fielder, except that they are all OF innings. So we should compare him to an another OF, say, the less than stellar (and lately departed) Pat "The Bat (and not the Glove)" Burrell, who, over the past five years, made an error every 214.3 innings.

In other words, if you wish to attack someone's fielding ability based on how often they make an error? Well, don't castigate Nomar. Gabe's the guy with the lesser glove.

I am not necessarily a big Coste fan, but I don't see these additions hurting him as much as other seem to believe. The Phils didn't go out of their way to get Paulino, he was never on their radar or wish list and basically fell into their lap. It was a good trade to get him but IMO it had nothing to do with trying to upgrade the current catching situation. Also, Coste will not be on the bench as the third catcher. He will either be the backup to Ruiz or he will be gone. Also, I am not sure why we would want to get rid of Coste. He is much better defensively than most people realize and many people forget that he was supposed to play only around once a week and ended up playing a lot more. We just won the WS with Ruiz and Coste...why mess with it? If the alternatives were clearly better I could understand, but Paulino, although a decent player, is not an upgrade. We are not looking for an ALL STAR catcher, we need a catcher (or two) that can hold down the fort until Marson is ready to be handed the reins, which might actually be in 2009.

From the Last thread~

CJ & Mike77~

CJ~ $135 million doesn't mean a thing if you don't make the playoffs. What we are hearing basically is that the arb cases are preventing the Phils from any more signings.

Lowe is a great fit for this team but the Phils won't even try because they won't give 15 million a year to any pitcher. That happens to be what the going rate is for top notch starters these days. "Cheap" doesn't mean they don't have a decent payroll in terms of where they rank in the league. It means they won't go the extra mile. I've explained to all of you why they signed Ibanez. It was to save money over Burrell so they can eat Eaton's salary.

Mike77~ Your point IS my point. Jenkins, Eaton etc. I like Jenkins. He once was a good player. The point is they for the most part sign marginal players who a lot a times don't work out. Then they're stuck. They'd rather do that then pay the going rate for marquee guys who'll help.

They should have signed Lowe over Moyer. Lowe won't happen now. Didn't even try for Manny. Forget the baggage with him. What damage he would done offensively in the middle of that lineup in that ballpark! Instead we got a 37 year old, another LH hitter. I keep going back to where is the starter, the reliever and the RH bat? hasn't happened and won't. Do you understand where I'm coming from now? We won the division by 3 games. The Mets improved. We didn't.

Its also possible that Nomar who has played both SS, 3rd, and first in his career could be taking Bruntletts place. Not sure if he ever played 2nd.

Gabe Kapler's 2008 OPS+ : 117

mikes77 - ever heard of the term "outlier?"

fljerry - One game in 1996. I wouldn't call that experience as much as willingness.

Thanks for explaining that to me D Pa. I understand a little bit better. I just don't see the doom and gllom that you seem to feel. The Mets upgraded their Bullpen. Great... I know you don't agree, but the Phillies upgraded their lineup in my view.

You keep going back to the Phillies only won the division by 3 games so the Mets improvements automatically make up those games. I don't see it that way... Forget the World Series and playoffs for a minute. What Phillies' player played over his head last year during the regular season? Jamie Moyer and Chad Durbin, thats it. The heart of the team underperformed. Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz and Myers had down years and still won.
The Mets catch greef for choking. Thats wrong. They over achieved last year. Murphy? Tatis? Easley? Ayala? None of those guys are going to do anything this year. Maybe i'm selling them short, but the Mets had to improve just to tread water this year.

Andy - Has Bruntlett ever played 2nd?

Mike77~

I underestand your points. They're good ones. Minaya fixed his bullpen. I'm not saying all is doom and gloom. But Amaro didn't accomplish what he set out to do. I banez is not a bad signing. He will perform and drive in runs. But his sugning dies not address the issue of getting a RH bat.

As far as the pitching, what's wrong with re-signing Moyer AND getting Lowe as well?

Just once, I'd like to see the Phils make moves that the other teams in the division have to worry about.

Nomaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

Kapler's salary for 2008 ($800,000) and his career best OPS (.838) would look good in red pinstripes, too.

I agree, either Kapler or Nomar would be a good addition to the bench. Can Nomar play 2B?

I don't see the room or need on this team for Coste or Stairs/Jenkins with one of those signings. Coste is a great story. He has a World Series ring. He will catch on somewhere else, but he has served his purpose here if we sign another righthanded bat off the bench. Stairs and Jenkins are redundant, except Jenkins gives you more defense and can pinch run in a pinch. Stairs will be great to DH vs. the American League though.

If we sign Nomar that pretty much makes Bruntlett the 5th outfielder and puts him in the So Taguchi role. I still would like to see a real defensive outfielder/speedster to pinch run and be the late inning D replacement for Ibanez.

I also still demand Derek Lowe. The Phillies are way ahead in season ticket and six pack sales this year. They are selling merch like crazy. Lowe just takes Myers' money after this year. They have the money and he is just too good of a fit. Right now the ownership is laughing all the way to the bank. I'm not going to call them cheap, because they have done a good job signing guys like Rollins and Utley to longterm contracts, but now they are on the brink of a potential three year plus dynasty and the fans have responded by spending money even in this crappy economy. Lowe is the right fit. Make the move.

NOMAHH!

get some damn batting gloves that fit already


apropos of nothing, here's a list I don't vouch for - major leaguers murdered:

http://www.thedeadballera.com/murders.html

Notable:

1899 - Sam White - hit with bat by player
1901 - Ora Jennings - see Sam White
(Juan Marichal was a pussy?)
'35 - Len Koenecki - beaten to death w/ fire extinguisher on a plane - by a member of the flight crew

(Reuters reports: deregulation of air travel industry leads to levels of violence not seen in decades)

'03 Ivan Calderon - suspected PR mafia hit

-I completely missed that one

'

NOTE:
ugue urbina did not kill anyone on the list

I guess, the Delahanty case has been narrowed down to accident or suicide

forgot to indicate that White and Jennings were umpires.
You probably assumed that.

Ed Delahanty had a career OPS+ of 152, btw
very impressive

Get Lowe Dammit! Sicknasty rotation!

Nomar a starter- hell no! Nomar for bench- hell yes. Same applies for Kapler. We're talking 5th outfielder and backup infielder here people. We need the rigth-handed bat.

Brett- "sicknasty" might be the second best compound word ever, directly following douchebag.

I've got a soft spot for Nomar, myself, but damn I hope that is just smoke. He was great in his day, but his time is well and truly past. If the Phillies sign him I will officially join the BAP Club of Gloom.

BTW Carson, nice job getting pimped on MLBTR. ;)

Что-то ты недоговариваешь…

--The Mets improved. We didn't.--

As far as the Mets go, they picked up a couple quality relievers who may or may not make it thru the season. They also ripped the guts out of their bench with their deals. Overall, not a huge net upgrade. Romero out for a couple of months evens things up for awhile...overall we're better plus a KNOW how to win.

That's: WE know how to win. (sorry)

Clout: Yes, he was off, just not by anywhere near as much as my quick look at the stats indicated. If he had walked at 12% instead, he would have gotten what, about 8 or 9 more for the season? That seems within normal parameters (no, I haven't checked).

Point being, I suppose, that Howard has a lot to prove this season. A thread or two back somebody brought up Stargell. Between his age 25 and 39 seasons, Willie posted four of them at about the level of Howard's '08, four at about the level of Howard's '06, and seven at the level of Howard's '07. If Ryan Howard is going to be the "Willie Stargell of his generation," he bounces back to at least his '07 level. If he doesn't, I suspect the Phillies sit at home in October.

Nomar wasn't exactly the most popular guy in the LA clubhouse...

He was often described as the "Switzerland" of their clubhouse because he never took sides, never got involved and kept to himself. Not a huge team guy. I think Kapler would fit into the Phillies team alot better. I'd take Gabe as we already have several utility infielders and need a RH OF bat more.

not for nothing but to those who say how the Phils needed a RH bat to start in the lineup need to realize that there are only 3 LH hitters in the starting lineup.

You have Utley, Howard and Ibanez. Why everybody must think that Ibanez has to bat behind Howard in everygame I don't get. Werth did a great job when batting in the 5 hole.

It's not bad that Ibanez bats 6th vs. LH because he does hit LH pretty well and therefore would be in a position to drive in runs for 1st and 3rd.

"Why everybody must think that Ibanez has to bat behind Howard in everygame I don't get. Werth did a great job when batting in the 5 hole."

I don't think anyone is saying that Ibanez has to hit behind Howard, it's that we don't expect Cholly to split up the lefties. It has been discussed on this board for a while, dating back to last year when Cholly refused to split up Utley and Howard against tough lefties. Will he change? Ibanez hitting sixth would be an ideal spot no matter who is pitching, IMO.

Alby: I agree 100%. Comparisons of Howard to Stargell are WAY premature.

"plus we KNOW how to win"

Does anyone actually buy into that?

Rocks,billingsly: As I pointed out on prior thread, Ibanez is much better vs. RHP than Werth, both season and career. So by hitting Werth 5th and Ibanez 6th vs. RHP, you'd be hitting the worse hitter ahead of the better hitter. Be a shock if Charlie did that.

Also, while the heart of the lineup are the only lefthanded starters, Vic & Rollins are switch-hitters, which means the team would have 5 of the 8 position players batting from the left side vs. RHP. That's a good thing, BTW, and the one clear advantage that Ibanez has over Burrell. It would be 6 if Charlie had enough sense to start Dobbs vs. RHP, but that won't happen even if Beerleaguer's most beloved player hits .175 vs. righties.

This team clearly does not intend to count on Jason Donald for anything. This is a good strategy that I am inherently rooting against because I want to see Donald stick at 3B eventually.

Is Bruntlett still a part of this bench? I guess he stays until Donald shows he's not going back to the minors, assuming that happens. Signing Kapler gives us a backup CF, which we only have in Bruntlett and Werth, neither of which are sufficient options for more than a handful of innings.

I am not looking forward to another season of Bruntlett getting another 200 ABs and wasting them by hitting an empty .230 with no power.

MG: 100% agree. You don't know how many times I've argued about Bruntlett with my friends. He's a last man off the bench, at best. I'd hope Nomar would take a bunch of his ABs.

Kapler is by far the best fit. Nomar doesn't help us as we already have a covey of IF options (Bruntlett, Dobbs, Feliz, Donald and even Giles now) and don't need another aging IF with injury issues. We need a backup RH OF though.

fljerry - The Bruntlett question was sarcasm, right?

In re: LHs
Please note that although the line-up only has 3 LHBs, the bench is overstocked. The three guys on the bench primarily as hitters are lefties. The righties on the bench are defensive fill-ins. When people say we need a RHB for the bench, this is the concern they are raising.

People advocating Kapler need to take a serious look at his career numbers. Sure he had a great 2008. Well outside his career norms. No one is expecting him to re-do those numbers. How many times did Eisenreich ( a career OPS+ 103 guy - which means he was a better hitter than Kapler) have an OPS+ over 130?

If Kapler repeats his 117 OPS+ in 2009 I will eat sweet potato casserole and pickled beets and wash it down with Flavoraid™.

NEPP - If both Utley and Feliz are out at the start of the season, I'd rather have 4 - Donald, 5 - Garciaparra than 4 - Giles, 5 - Bruntlett. As far as I know, we don't have any injured OFs right now.

Feliz won't be out for the start of the season...not unless he has a MAJOR setback in his recovery. He should play a good amount in spring training.

Nomar had all of 163 ABs in 08...he was on and off the DL the entire time.

Andy: Re: Kapler. Exactly right!

Another smart Red Sox gamble:

Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that the Red Sox have agreed to terms with Takashi Saito on a one-year contract with a team option for 2010.

According to Rosenthal, the deal includes around $2 million in guaranteed money with an additional $5 million or so in potential incentives.

Did Saito ever fix his elbow or is the ligament still hanging by a thread? I heard he had some sort of experimental treatment where they injected stem cells into his elbow to help heal it...interesting.

Saito also turns 39 next month. I hope the RS trainers and medical staff is well-compensated for what they have to look forward to next year: Penny, Smoltz, Baldelli, Saito ... I'm sure I'm forgetting some.

All major upside signings, obviously, at low risk.

any chance that the Phillies continued interest in Lowe is only to drive up the asking price for the Mets/Braves? We all seem to agree it would take some miracle for him to sign here, and as has been said, players take less money or years to play in NY, not Philadelphia. The $36MM the Mets offered does not seem to be enough, so it would take more than that for Lowe to be wearing Phillies' pinstripes next year. With more pressing needs, that money just is not available. So if reports are true about the Phils still going after Lowe, what is the reason?

Here's a throw-it-against-the-wall-and-see-if-it-sticks-idea: If the Phils sign Nomaaaaaaah AND both Utley and Pete Happy are injured to start the year, play Greg Dobbs at second and Nomaaaaaaaah at third. Granted, you'll have some downright terrible defense, but the hitting shouldn't be too bad.

NEPP: No, Saito did not have surgery. And yes, he injected hemoglobin-rich blood into his elbow to make it better. Who knows if it worked (a good indication would be that the Dodgers made no attempt to re-sign the guy, a decent closer the last year and a half)?

Either Nomar or Gabe would be a great addition to the bench.

Dpatrone: Stop with the front office being cheap nonsense. It doesn't hold water anymore

He "passed" his BoSox physical...though that doesn't mean very much.

CRD - as covered in the thread the day of reports that the Phils had made an offer to Lowe, there are a few motivations for unsubstantive reports of interest. We'll call this the Cynical View (which I take as the majority view, as well).

From team perspective
1 - possibly drives up interest in fan base
2 - possibly drives up ultimate price that competitor pays for FA

From player/agent perspective
- see (2) above.

Bruntlett normally wouldn't be a major factor on most teams as he would be one of the last men on the roster. He will play a more meaningful role on the Phils though this season:

1. Utley and Feliz are both question marks and I expect that Bruntlett will get at least 25-30 starts at 2B and 3B. This is not a good thing.

2. Cholly love to use his bench early and often some nights. In fact, it is not uncommon that he goes through his entire bench in a 9-inning game some nights.

This means Bruntlett will get his share of late-inning opportunities although I really hope we don't see him in LF again a defensive replacement. That was arguably the dumbest move Cholly consistently made all year.

3. It was more common for a guy like Bruntlett to be on rosters during the 1980s during low-scoring games. These guys usually had some speed though and could do more of the "small-ball things" to help the team late.

Bruntlett's speed though is really average. He isn't a base stealing threat and I would bet good money that a majority of his SBs last year were in large part to Lopes who was stealing a sign/telling Bruntlett when to take off.

Bruntlett also doesn't do any of the "small-ball" game things well including bunt or make contact enough to pull a hit-and run with.

4. Bruntlett has clearly declined offensively the last few season and looks like a player who is done being able to contribute offensively at a MLB level.

Yeah he plays multiple positions and is an adequate SS and probably above-average 2B but you don't pay a guy $1M a year to hit .220-.230 in 200-250 ABs with no power and not much speed.

DPatrone and others (myself included) do get tired of the endless rumors the past several season that the Phils always supposedly "offering a deal" to a major FA only to have it turn out to largely to hogwash.

Now maybe the player's agent is using the Phils to name drop but I bet there are plenty of times the Phils' marketing/PR people do this to generate positive buzz among the fanbase.

I find it hard to believe with how consistently the Phils' keep getting mentioned with Lowe over the past several weeks that it was just Lowe's agent who is constantly stoking those fires.

Red Sox and Yanks couldn't have taken more opposite approaches so far to the offseason:

- Yanks have spent the big money and inked the big FA names (Texiera, Sabathia, Burnett)

- Red Sox have gone to the Value Village route in comparison by signing a bunch of players to low-base deals with high-upside bonus incentive potential (Penny, Smoltz, Baldelli, Saito).

Going to be fascinating to see which one pays larger dividends. For Cashman's sake, the Yanks better win the AL East next year.

I don't know the details of those Sox signings but they certainly are interesting names. If only two of them contribute it could be a very worthwhile off season for them. I'd love to know what the doctors are saying about Baldelli. If he can give you 350 at bats or so and can play multiple days in a row, the Phillies will really have missed the boat. If he could handle the workload he would have been a nice fit here. On Bruntlett: His value is his versatility. Nothing else. The Phils were forced to use him way too much last year. As the season wore on his weaknesses became all too evident. Looks like that may be the case again. He is definitely a last man off the bench guy. I would think we could find a more capable guy at his price tag, but there aren't many that can play as many positions. Garciappara would be kind of cool here. Nomar and the Gnome in the same infield would probably entertain the resident Beer Leaguer witts for hours.

MG -
"I find it hard to believe with how consistently the Phils' keep getting mentioned with Lowe over the past several weeks that it was just Lowe's agent"

You are aware of who Lowe's agent is, right? It is completely within his portfolio of tactics to make up supposed deals that other teams have offered his clients. (And it is fully within Junior's portfolio to lie by the implication that even though he's denying the rumor there might be something to it.)

Lowe to Philly is hogwash, but it's our hogwash. (see Sophist's scenario #2 above.)

If the Yanks don't win the AL East can everyone stop making it out like Cashman is a great GM? If they lose out again, the finger pointing should start with the GM.

Phillies must sign Garciaparra. Nomar and the Gnome in the same infield could entertain Beer Leaguers for hours. Of course Nomar would probably miss 3/4 of the season with shampoo in his eyes. And the batting glove thing would get really old if he got a significant amount of playing time.

Sorry for the semi-redundant post. Operator error.

I don't understand the complaints about the batting glove. If Nomah is on your team, the main person it's irritating is the opposing pitcher. I'm always in favor of helping the other side come unglued.

(Kind of like the way Jim Deshaies used to throw over to first, like, a dozen times when someone fast was on-base. Terribly annoying to fans of the other team...and to the base-runner and batter. A great idea for his team, as long as the fielders were expecting it.)

donc - Don't worry. I'm sure we'd come up with something amusing for Gabe "Mini-manchine" Kapler.

Agreed. But he looks like a Howler Monkey with Tourettes. I'm worried about him annoyin ME

Gabe Kappler? You mean Mr. Kotter is a ball player?

Kapler has a career 118 OPS+ against lefties, which is really what's important for a bench guy. He's not gonna get at-bats against righties, you would assume. Also, as a backup CF, a 92 OPS+ isn't terrible. Victorino's career OPS+ is 94, so let's have some context here. I'm not a huge fan of the guy, but Kapler would not be a bad addition at all to round out the bench as a righty hitter.

To the people who want Donald to be the answer at 3rd base, you should then be hoping the Phillies sign more infielders. You want Donald to be playing everyday at 3rd in the minors, if you think he is the answer at that position for the Phillies longterm. If he makes the team, it will be as a utility infielder and last man off the bench, not as a 3rd baseman.

Saito is the perfect example of a low-risk high-reward guy. He wasn't just a good closer the past couple years, he was DOMINANT. One of the best closers in baseball actually. Keep in mind he had been blocking Broxton's assent to the closer role as his numbers were so good.
I understand why the dodgers didn't try to pick him back up (broxton) but I dont see why more teams wouldnt have been interested. Yes he is injured, but his upside is incredible.

Yeah, Jack. I'm okay with Kapler as a platoon-at-the most sub. I think Garciaparra might be a better hitter, even at his age. But either one would be a better RHB off the bench than we had last year. (Remember when we were talking about who would be the DH against a LH starter in Tampa?) *shudders involuntarily*

I initially was reacting to Mikes77 reacting with revulsion to the idea of Garciaparra and celebrating Kapler. Really, the m ain thing we need to remember is that Gabey ain't ever gonnd match his 2008 numbers ever ever again except in a Church slowpitch softball league after he retires from the Bigs.

*note to self: the chance of Kapler playing in a church league is remote for a plethora of reason - chiefly faith tradition of the player*

*self arguing back: yeah but it was funny*

*self replying: be more respectful, you idiot.*

*Okay, mom.*

*and go get a therapist*

Yeah, Nomar would be a risk I would think. Gabe would be a good fit.

I'm with the Nomah over Kapler crowd. Jack's right that Kapler has what you want in a RH PH, but the problem is, under Charlie he'd end up with at least 50% of his ABs vs. RHP and he is awful vs. RHP.

Garciaparra was awful vs. RHP last season, but his career numbers are better than Kapler's and he is more likely to get on base. One downside: Nomah can't spell Ibanez vs. tough LHP, while Kapler can. The fact he Kapler can back up in CF doesn't impress me since Werth can too. What the team really needs is a big RH bat off the bench, although it'd be nice if it was an outfielder.

Bottom line: Nomah is the better RH bat off the bench, Kapler the better fit defensively.

Interesting projection about the Mets new ballpark from 09' Hardball Times Annual:

*Citi Field, the new ballpark for the New York Mets, is poised to become MLB's new Grand Canyon. City Field is a vast, cool weather, sea-level stadium, and those factors will have a hugely negative impact on home runs.

*Johan Santana and the rest of the Mets pitching staff will like the new park, but the Mets' front office should sign their power hitters now, before the word gets out. In spring 2009, baseball fans are going to get a live demonstration of what happens when a team sets out to design a pitcher's park, and overdoes it.

Citi Field = the anti CBP?

In re: Citi/Taxpayer Field

On the bright side, it can be hot and humid in the Summer. Maybe it'll play like Wrigley.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that the Braves and Kenshin Kawakami have agreed to terms.

Kawakami, 32, is a veteran righty, went 9-5 2.30 with Chunichi last season. He was the best player posting from Japan this off-season.

He's considered at least as good as Kuroda. His best pitch is a cut fastball, but he also throws a changeup/curve that is not unlike Swindle's 60 mph offerings. His command is superb. His K/BB ratio last season was 4.5/1. In 2007 it was 6/1, which is sick.

This would make the Braves rotation Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kawakami, Jorge Campillo and JoJo Reyes, which doesn't light my fire.

Frankly I think the only rotation in the NL East whose quality might be as good or better than the Phillies is Florida: Johnson, Nolasco, Sanchez, Volstad, Miller. Very young, but super upside.

BTW, I like the upside of every one of those guys better than Pelfrey's.

Does this mean that the Braves are no longer interested in Derek Lowe?

Agree completely with Jack's above post.
Guys crying for a RH OF bat and when a good one is mentioned they would rather pick up a broken down infielder who is a shell of what he used to be.

mikes77 - Um...

"good one" - Kapler was so good that he's started for nobody in the last several years, and, actually, retired in 2007 at age 31. Count me unimpressed.

"broken down" & "shell" - Maybe a bit injury prone at this point, but hit more HRs in the past two years than Kapler in his previous five. Has a career OPS+ above 100, too.

Please note that my point is with your invective. Your characterization of Nomar is misguided. It may be that Kapler is a better fit; but either would be an improvement. Garciaparra on the bench would improve the team.

Pops - I doubt the Braves will sit on Kawakami, but will continue to pursue Lowe. Add Lowe to the Braves' rotation and it is pretty good. Of course, their line-up still leaves a lot to be desired. I wonder why they're not pursuing Kapler, since he's so awesome.

P.S. Mikes77

I don't get the sense that you "completely agree with this statement by Jack:

I'm not a huge fan of the guy,

The problem i'm seeing in a lot of people's logic regarding Nomar is that they're using his career numbers in comparison with Kapler's - but it doesnt work in this case.

Nomar is not his career numbers, thats like arguing Pedro would be a better signing than Lowe. He's an injured ex superstar that is hardly a version of his old self.

When a guy has to stoop to cherry pick a stupid stat like this: 'has hit more HRs in the last TWO years', your working too hard to try to win a losing argument... Are you angry that i didnt respond to your earlier posts on the subject? Do you need attention or something?

ESPN has 3-year splits.

Garciaparra

Total: .289/.345/.445
v RHP: .289/.339/.429
v LHP: .289/.368/.502

Home: .316/.378/.488
Away: .263/.314/.405

Runner on: .311/.374/.485
RISP: .352/.433/.520

Of course, he batted .303/.367/.505 in 2006 (.341/.420/.600 against LHP and .358/.426/.578 before ASB) which helps his 2-year numbers a bit.

PECOTA had him .281/.335/.416 for 2008 (.264/.326/.466 actual, 105 OPS+). They said .269/.319/.393 for 2009.

I'm sure some of you have seen this, but there was a question about it:

Fresh off closing the deal on Kenshin Kawakami, it seems as though the Atlanta Braves are the latest front runners in the Derek Lowe sweepstakes. Citing a source, Rosenthal says the Braves are "all over" Lowe. As for the team that was perhaps overtaken in this case, Rosenthal writes, "Mets officials seemed pessimistic."

Key stats for Kapler vs. Nomar in 2008

As a pinch hitter:
Kapler .323
Nomar .250

Vs. LHP:
Kapler .354
Nomar .339

With RISP:
Kapler .294
Nomar .237

All the above signs point to Kapler. Personally, I like the idea of signing Kapler just to have another rightie off the bench in the OF and I would MUCH rather see him as a late inning defensive replacement than the Gnome.

MG~ Thank you. At least you understand my frutstration. Everyone knows that they hardly ever make a serious offer to pitcher or big bat that can really help. Ibanez doesn't equate here because they knew they didn't want Burrell back. They kew they could get Ibanez. And as I already explained, that was just a money-saving deal.

The Phils could get Lowe if they wanted to. They have the money. They are interested in everybody out there so long as the player(s) want to play for they they offer not what the player wants or what the going rate is.

I read this AM where even Kapler is likely to sign elsewhere. I have a big problem with the fact that this team has not been improved. And coming off a WS championhip, you think that Amaro would want that kind of team around for a few more years. Getting the players he wanted (RH bat, starter and reliever) should not have been this difficult.

Hitters love that park. Pitchers don't. So to get pitching they have to overpay and they won't. Hell, Rube's even having trouble upgrading the bench. It's clear to that the owners are holding him back or he's not the right man for the job or both. It's very frustrating each day that goes by where nothing happens with this team.

skeeter - you may want to think about sample size effects. That .250 AVG for Nomar was in 8 PA. 8! And he actually walked in 4 of those PA, so the .250 represents only 4 AB. You know something funny is happening when you look at the full split: .250/.625/.250.

Kapler had 33 PA as a PH last year, so it's a bit more legitimate. .323/.364/.548. As others have pointed out, though, it was by far his best offensive year in MLB.

I just want one of these guys. Signing Kapler or Garciaparra would be an action befitting an Championship team, which signing Bruntlett is not (although he did some fine things last year: run against the Mets, HR against Price, run against the Rays off Ruiz' dribbler).

mikes77 - That's called an "ad hominem" argument. Not very convincing or productive.

Let's not "cherry pick" then. Before last season, the last time Kapler had a year with an OPS+ over 100 was 2002. In between he posted: 75, 85, 77, 65 (?!), 77, and then retired. Unless some sort of amazing epiphany occurred during his year off, he will never ever hit with an OPS+ of 105 (say), much less 117. He may be the bat we need off the bench that we need/get; but he will not be as good as last year.

In that same time period (2002 - 2008), Nomar's OPS+ numbers ran: 127, 121, 113, 97, 120, 78, 105. Three of those years are better than Kapler's outlier 2008 and only one of them is less than Kapler's career average. In those same years (the less product half of Nomar's career) he hit 105 HRs. That's half againas many as Kapler has in his entire career (72).

Even today at 34, Garciaparra is a much better hitter than Kapler at 32. Anyone who argues otherwise is basing way too much on his 2008 season and will be, probably, disappointed in his 2009 season.

Kapler would be better than any of the options we had when we needed a RH DH. Garciaparra would be better. I think it's more likely we'll begin the season with 3 LH corner guys on the bench.

Skeeter - what did they each do in, say, 2005 through 2008? One season does not, always, provide an accurate trend.

Wow, according to Beerleaguer posters (OK, the chronically ignorant ones) Kapler is quite a stud and last season was a typical year for him. He's probably the fallback for teams that don't get Manny.

DPatrone - I will say this about Amaro offseason so far. He generally has kept the status quo even if he overpaid for Ibanez and likely did the same for Moyer too. Some of the secondary deals may turn out to help the Phils (Paulino & Mayberry trades, Park signing) but Amaro really didn't address one of his started goals this offseason of improving the pitching, defense, or acquiring a RH bat.

Clout - C'mon man. Kapler would be at best here a 5th OF who would almost never start. Maybe the occasional Sunday day game but I would be surprised if he got more than 125-150 ABs.

Kapler really would be used a right-handed PH bat and a possible defensive replacement for Ibanez late in games (which I actually wouldn't mind seeing Cholly do). Tell me who would be better suited right now on the Phils to accomplish these two tasks or for that matter be the 5th OF. It isn't Stairs and the Phils don't have an internal candidate ready for this role to start the season.

If the Phils could sign Kapler to a 1 yr/$700-$800k deal, it would help the Phils and give Cholly a bit more versatility off the bench. Garciaparra swings a better bat but he doesn't fit as well on this team's bench as currently constituted either.

Plus, everything I have ever heard about Kapler has stated what a great teammate he is. If you think chemistry matters alot (and I don't), then he benefits on this front too.

Meant to add the Garciaparra has at times been known to be kind of a prickly pear when dealing with teammates in Boston. Maybe that changed with getting married and mellowing in LA but I would bet that Kapler would be a better fit chemistry wise on this team than Garciaparra.

OK, here are the numbers for their last 4 seasons:

As a pinch hitter:
Nomar .158 (3-19, 6 walks)
Kapler .283 (13-46,4 walks)

Vs. lefties:
Nomar .345 (121-351)
Kapler .315 (98-311)

With RISP:
Nomar .403 (83-206)
Kapler .257 (56-218)

When you look at the last 4 seasons, the numbers favor Nomar. But you're talking about a guy who has THREE MORE DL stints last year. He isn't an outfielder, he isn't what we need. We need a right handed bat that can play defense. Nomar's numbers have regressed each of the last 3 years and he's only getting older. We need a RH OF so unless Nomar is replacing the Gnome I don't know where he fits in.

Nomar is a great case of "What could have been" if he hadn't had the wrist injury and then played through it in 2000. Probably a borderline HOF/HOF and possibly as revered in Boston as any athlete in the last 50 years.

Watched a ton of Sox games when I lived in Boston during the late 1990s and early part of this decade and Nomar was never the same after the injury. Didn't generate the same bat speed again and the ball didn't seem to really explode off his bat again.

Then again, there were always plenty of steroids rumors around Nomar especially after his rookie season when he really bulked up for a few years. Probably say the same thing about a number of players from the same era and never really be certain though.

Phils current bench defensive skill set:
Bruntlett 3,4,5,6,7,8?,9?
Jenkins 7,9
Dobbs 3,(4 ugh),5,7,9
Stairs 3,7,9
Coste 2,3?,5?

I see a lot of 7s and 9s there; not a lot of 6s.

One strategic tool which would be added would be the ability (though he might choose not to do this) of Chollie to substitute Nomar against LHP. Maybe not against a LH SP, but maybe against an extreme LOOGY in a late game situation early in the season when Howard is still flailing at trash - say Utley leading off with Howard and Ibanez to follow. The LOOGY comes in and Garciaparra appears on deck. Also, when Pedro goes into his (almost mandatory) annual swoon, Nomar could play a game or two against LHPs.

And he'd be a great DH option in interleague games. I have some questions about whether Kapler would be - though I suppose Gabe would be better than daGnome.

We don't need a bench of 4 IFs and 1 OF. How is this hard to figure out?

What do we do when Utley and Feliz are both healthy and we have Bruntlett, Dobbs, and Nomar on the bench?

Our bench would be:

UT/IF Bruntlett
3B/1B Dobbs
3B/SS Nomar
C Paulino
OF Jenkins

Not exactly the most versatile bench. No speed, no RH outfielder, nobody capable of even spot starting at CF...we'd have to move Werth over and put Jenkins in RF (shudders)

We need a RH outfielder to give UC some options...unless you want to see a TON of Bruntlett in the OF.

And just to be clear on one other point. Garciaparra is 34; Kapler is 32. They'll each gain a year to those totals mid-summer. The age difference is not that great, considering especially that Kapler himself thought he was done after 2006.

I will grant that Garciaparra's DL stints is a valid point. But Kapler's ability to hit is suspect IMO. Before this past year, his previous four seasons were lousy by corner OF (where it's been suggested we need him) standards.

I will repeat: I won't be disappointed by a Kapler signing. His bat simply will not be as great a weapon in 2009 as it was in 2008.

NEPP - we're gonna see a ton of Bruntlett in the OF anyway.

I'm not sure that Dobbs is any more an IF than an OF.

Theoretically, Bruntlett is speed.

Finally (and here I'm relying on your sense of humor) do we really need to give Chollie more options?

Nomar just doesn't smell right with this clubhouse...there's a reason he wasn't loved in Boston and definitely not loved in LA. Besides he's a prima donna with declining skills, no glove and a ton of injury issues. And he'd probably want too much money. Kapler is used to being a role guy, is actually an outfielder and will hopefully give us an OPS+ in the 80-90 range that one would hope to get out of a 4/5 OF.

I mean, hey. If you really want real speed and good defense, just sign Justin Christian. As far as I know he's still available. He's righty, can play all OF positions AND 2B, and he'll run circles around Gabe Kapler.

He's younger than both and he'll be cheaper than either of them.

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