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Wednesday, January 14, 2009

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See what happens when you bring up bargain signings?

Amaro Delivers!!!

Well.. he's left handed anyway.

/goes back to twiddling thumbs

Seattle should just send players to Philadelphia instead of back down to AAA.

Jake Woods is a great baseball name. It's much easier to pronounce correctly than Chris Coste. I peg him a real longshot to make the big squad. He looks like he'll be wearing the Piggies uniform this summer.

Ohman seems like the best bet of the players listed in the previous posts, though his platoon splits are pretty fairly wide. Brian Shouse is a type B free agent and has been offered arbitration, will Juan Cruz is a type A and also has been offered arbitration. Betcha that's the reason the Phils haven't signed Cruz: they don't want to give up a high draft pick for a reliever. Can't say I blame them. Same thing for Shouse. Beimel's another idea, but his overall numbers aren't quite as good. Ohman has an righty lefty OPS split of .756/603, while Beimel's is .795/.722. Not what I'd want from a guy who pitches in the back end, but then again, either of the 2 would be a stop gap until Romero returns. Of course, JC's career split is .814/.591, with a split of .898/.346 last year, so perhaps Ohman would be the best replacement. Think he'll come cheap?

Question for the forum: when is it ever a good idea to give up draft picks or trade position players for a reliever? Isn't building a decent pen one of the easier things to do in baseball? I have a hard time imagining when it's a smart move. Just looking for real life examples or hypothetical scenarios for when it's okay to do it.

Well, if you're the Yankees, and the next draft pick you give up is in the 4th round -- while you keep your much higher compensation picks -- well, what are you losing?

AWH, my point in looking at Mueller in particular (I didn't look at the others) was that, yes, you can win 98 games and a WS without an AS 3B, but you probably need a lot of other things as well. At least, Mueller isn't a lesson that shows you can be missing much in other departments.
- Mueller was actually above league average offensively that year
- BOS was at or above league average (sometimes by large numbers) at almost every other position (SS and RF aside)
- their rotation was both ridiculously healthy (the top 5 started in all but 5 games in 04) and good (those ERA+)

I was about to argue for Beimel and then I looked at his game logs from last year. While he had a great ERA, his IS/IR is abysmal. He makes Clay Condrey look like a second ballot HOFer. It kinda explained how he could have a 100+ ERA+ and a WHIP just shy of 1.5.

I still think he'd be better than...ummm. what's the guy's name...right: Jake Woods. But if I were Rube and SERIOUS, I'd kick the Ohman tires.

Really. What is the point of signing Jake Woods? He should change his name to Darensbourg.

Ohman would be a pretty solid signing both because of the loss of the 2nd LHP for 50 games and because Ohman is preferable to even Romero as a full-inning guy.

v LHB
Career: .197/.285/.318
2008: .200/.257/.314

v. RHB
Career: .262/.359/.397
2008: .256/.341/.359

I just don't see the Phils making a move of even this size. Jake Woods is our Ohman. Garciaparra is the biggest move I have any hope for.

"Really. What is the point of signing Jake Woods?"

It's amazing how one pithy rhetorical question, prefaced by the word "Really," can say everything there is to say about this move.

If the Phillies don't sign Vic Darensbourg this off-season will be a huge disappointment and Amaro should be fired for not getting that deal done.

Lefty depth. The farm system may be on the rise, but there are bare spots in places like Reading. Reading might struggle against this year actually. Triple-A looks better ...

I would post here, but I can't because I'm going to focus on being a starter.

Mets sign Alex Cora. MLB notes he hit a solid .270/.371/.349 last year. What they don't note is that he hit .232/.275/.332 in 05, .238/.312/.298 in 06, and .246/.298/.386 in 07.

But Sophist, I'm sure those numbers from last year are far more accurate than those other 3...


...Just like Ibanez is really good against leftys.

Sophist, Just guessing (then I'll look); I bet his BABIP is much higher in 2008 than in his career.

Okay. Now let's look.

Cora
Career BABIP=.269
2008 BABIP=.290

Can't wait for the Mets trolls to tell us he's the second coming of Ryne Sandberg.

There is one thing Cora does well. In his last 575 PAs (last three seasons) he's gotten hit by a pitch 24 times. That's downright Utleyan.

Wow...what a good guess by Andy.

BABIP is just another of those meaningless sabermetric stats that has nothing to do with reality.

Alex Cora is one of those beloved average bench guys that the Boston fans always love to support (Kapler, Cora, Dave Roberts, etc) Somehow, Francona manages to get decent production out of all of those type of guys...why couldn't we ever have a manager like Tito?

Yeah, his BABIP did sky-rocket but so did his LD%: 16, 20, 25%. And the BABIP doesn't entirely explain his jump in OBP. His BB% went from 4.2% in 05, to 7.5% in 06, 3.3% in 07, to 9.5% in 08.

But I'd think there's a better chance he looks like he always has than he did last year.

I was surprised to see how badly Easley played overall last year. I thought he crushed the Phils. Sure enough: .404/.466/.577 in 15 games, 59 PA last year. Yikes.

Personally...I think the Cora signing was one of Minaya's better moves so far in the off-season. He's a solid backup middle IF.

NEPP: Now you're begging for Mets trolls.

FWIW, Ohman has good career numbers against ATL, FLA and WSN, not so good against NYM. His #1 comp is Mike Venafro.

NEPP - Much better than that Fransisco Whatever guy...or that other putz he got.

Wishful thinking but the Phils are done making any kind of meaningful move this offseason including the bullpen. Only arbitration hearings left and maybe a minor trade or two (likely Stairs to shed some payroll).

It is not the lack of signing a guy like Lowe to a huge contract that frustrates me as a Phils' fan - it is that they won't spend the extra $1M or $1.5M to fill the hole in the pen caused by Romero's suspension or that they will waste money on a known quantity ($1M on bringing back Bruntlett) to maintain consistency/familiarity.

MG~

Amen to that. And I said they would sign anyone of note at the start of the off-season. I banez doesn't count because he replaces Burrell. But Rube cerainly didn't improve the team. What! Me right? Imagine that! Your another phan who's see the truth. Thank God there's at least 3 of us.

****NEPP - Much better than that Fransisco Whatever guy...or that other putz he got.***

It doesn't take talent or intelligence to go out and sign the top free agent at a position...all it takes is money. That's why smaller trades and signings are sometimes a better judge of a GMs talent (See Pat Gillick).

Hence, I like the Cora deal a bit more than trading the farm of JJ Putz or running a dumptruck of money up to KRod's house...though the Putz deal could be very very good for them...unfortunately.

Amaro may not have really improved the parent club that much this offseason but he's done an impressive job at heaping up players for Lehigh Valley with MLB experience that have a chance to help the Phils in case of an emergency. This Jake Woods signing is decent for a minor league deal.

I do like the TON of minor league depth guys he's picked up...

The time has come for the Phillies to seriously consider signing Sheets. The latest rumblings suggest that he is open to signing a one year deal for around $6 million. The Phils have made lateral moves this winter and I don't think that is enough. A low-risk high-reward signing like Sheets is exactly what is needed to keep the competition at bay. If Sheets stays healthy he is a legitimate ace.

GM Carson-
Completely off topic but I loved your blog's Hall of Fame.
Being a Burrell fan I had to vote for Pat the Bat- good other selections too.

Sheets? $6MM? Though I doubt the market has depressed this much, the Phils would be looney to pass on that.

Gosh - Hamels, Sheets, Moyer, Myers, Blanton? That would be the best rotation in the NL East.

One thing I am really curious though is how Amaro handles the arbitration hearings. Supposedly one of his biggest asset was his ability to deal with players/agents (I find this odd given that people who are stubborn and arrogant often don't fare well in the negotiation process).

Don't expect any long-term deals for Howard or Hamels but it wouldn't surprise me if they resign Werth to a multi-year deal if they get a decent bargain (no knowing that the market on corner OFs has fallen a bit).

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