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Monday, January 19, 2009

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One thing I grow leary of - the 100% BS rumors that the Phils are "pursuing free agent x." Maybe those player's agents float the Phils' names out there but I find it impossible that happens in every case and the past several offseasons it seems the Phils are mentioned in possible pursuit of a number of big-name FAs only to come up empty. At some point, the Phils' FO has to be name dropping and hoping to catch a little good PR from their fans.

Doesn't mean they haven't made big-moves but those have been much more common via a trade than a FA signing.

If the Phils trade Myers, they might go after another starter who would make a decent dollar but is no chance this team takes on another substantial salary (say north of $5M/year).

Trading Myers would make sense from a fiscal standpoint, as his $12M salary is seriously out of proportion to his on-field performance. Trading him might also make sense from a long-term planning standpoint. He's going to be a FA next year, so you might as well get something of value for him before he walks away.

But from a short-term baseball standpoint, trading Myers would make sense only if you're going to use his salary to find someone equal or better. The only name on that list who is better than Myers is Sheets, who is a huge injury risk, but a great pitcher when healthy.

In a perfect world, a rotation which incldued BOTH Sheets & Myers would be very formiddible. But that would lift the Phillies' payroll to the neighborhood of $135M and I think we all know that ain't gonna happen. If they were to sign Sheets to a one-year deal & flip Myers for propsects, there would be no objection from me. Sheets is a big injury risk but, then again, Myers is a big disaster risk. It's difficult for me to discern any real difference between losing a starting pitcher to injury for 3 months, and having a pitcher who is an automatic loss for 3 months. Besides, the presence of Happ as a 6th starter, and Kendrick as a 7th, would greatly mitigate the injury risk of acquiring Sheets.

In all likelihood, Sheets will wind up with the Mets, who have an insatiable appetite for bringing in big-ticket names. The Phillies, on the other hand, have an insatiable appetite for making sure they get their names mentioned as "Other potential suitors" for big-ticket names.

I'm not against trading Myers, but I have no idea what he's worth. I always put him in the "worth more to us" category. He's probably too big a risk to fetch a solid return, but Myers+Kendrick/Happ would appeal to a lot of clubs.

baxter: Problem is, if you throw in KK & Happ, you've just traded away your Plan B in the event Sheets gets injured -- as he very likely will.

There's a premium on decent starting pitching. Joe Blanton was worth one top prospect, one decent relief prospect, and a throw-in. Myers is better than Blanton, but Blanton had a much more favorable contract situation. I would think those 2 factors just about cancel each other out & the haul for Myers would be pretty similar to what the Phillies gave up for Blanton -- maybe slightly better.

Phils sign Madson for 3/12 + incentives. Not sure if it was posted on last thread.

Great signing

phils sign madson? wow.

myers and madson are joined at the hip. this would lead me to beliebve that myers may get resigned.

It's nice that the Phillies are interested in Ben Sheets. I'm interested in becoming a millionaire and that's about as likely to happen as the Phillies signing Ben Sheets.

From MLB TradeRumors...
"According to Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies signed reliever Ryan Madson to a three-year extension worth $12MM plus incentives. The deal buys out his final arb year and two free agent years. It was previously thought that Madson, a Scott Boras client, might test the free agent market after the '09 season. "

Good deal for the Phillies, all things considered. Wondering what the incentives are that caused Mad-dog to change his mind.

2 good ones in a row Dpat. Give Rub a little credit. If we do somehow sign a solid starter then this off-season has to be a plus for Rub and the FO. Opening the pocketbook a little.

Maybe resign Werth while the market for corner OFers is weak?

Wow. That Madson news is utterly shocking to me, considering that he's represented by Boras. This is a great move.

Would you trade 3 Madsons for 1 Lidge?

The closer markup is crazy.

The closer mark-up is what it is. Fair or not, closers are perceived to be scarcer and more valuable then set-up men (although, I find this thinking to be highly dubious; the game can be lost in the 6th, 7th, or 8th innings just as easily as the 9th).

The Phillies and Rube did a good job of locking Madson in at a very reasonable price. Hopefully, this'll be the beginning of several other longer term agreements the FO comes up with for their arb-eligible players.

CY: I'm not sure I'd be too eager to lock up Jayson Werth just yet. He had a very nice year for us, but his ability to be a full-time player is still open to debate. With Michael Taylor possibly being a year away from the majors, I would take a wait-and-see approach on Werth. By the AS Break, we'll have a better handle on questions like: whether Werth can really be a full-time player; whether Ibanez is starting to show any signs of decline; and whether Michael Taylor is the real deal. Depending on the answers to these questions, I might try to lock Werth up around that time. Right now, there's too much uncertainty.

BAP-
those are also the reasons to sign Werth. Werth can't ask for much right now, but he could after another big year.

i'm a little bit late on this story, but i feel compelled to argue that trading Myers would be a BIG mistake. sure, Myers is a complete headcase, but he's a headcase in a contract year and even he knows what that means... he's pitching for a contract. i believe he'll be a $12 million pitcher this year.
outside of that theory, i think trading Myers to sign Sheets is too big of gamble. Sheets just can't be depended upon. without Sheets, the Brewers rotation was made toothless in the playoffs because it threw off matchups. the same thing would happen to the Phils if Sheets went down in Myers' stead. if Sheets' price drops, ala Kyle Lohse, and the Phils can get him cheap, then i'm all for it. but i would be furious to see the Phils trade Myers to free up money to sign Sheets.

CY~

I agree and I will give Rube credit here. In my post yesterday I said I'd give him credit for doing the right things. They are opening up the wallet more than a little here.

In my post earlier today I said a deal with Madson would show they could get along with Boras. Apparantly when the numbers are right that's true. Boras is very good at playing the game and knowing the market. He sees the price for relievers coming down and realized this was a good deal that should be accepted. Or Madon told him he was gonna take it anyway. Either way it's done and that's a good thing.

My probelem with Amaro is he hasn't done what he set out to do. I can't say that enough. The arb cases were/are going to be taken care of. I believe Blanton, Werth and Vic will sign multi-year deals as well.

We are still waiting for the necessary parts to come in. Andruw Jones for 400k would be nice. Ben Sheets? After arm surgey is a risk and I don't know that I'd trade Myers right now to bring in a risk. I rather sign Myers to an extension. Or I'd sign a starter, keep Myers extend him and Moyer would be my #5. Rotation of Hamels, Myers, Blanton, FA, Moyer. Park to the 'pen. He your upgrade there with an occaisional start.

Remember too that they will eat Eaton's salary. Right now I have their payroll @ ~87 mil pending players they still have to sign. I do believe they have the money to do the right things.

So Amaro gets credit here. I hope he keeps it going and I'll be the first to say "great job".

Yo, even newer thread...

A 3-year slump. Lousy numbers in winter ball. Lousy reports from scouts. Can we please stop fetishizing Andruw Jones? You won't get him for $400,000, and if you did you'd be overpaying.

Why did Amaro jump on Ibanez early and spend the money there?

Imagine if he had waited a bit, and signed Manny to a 2 yr/50 million deal or even 3/70. Then got Sheets at a bargain price.

We'd have Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Ramirez, Werth, Feliz, Ruiz

And a rotation of Hamels, Sheets, Myers, Moyer, Blanton with our young guys still on the farm and our league best bullpen intact.

That team wins 100+ games and is favored to repeat, sells out every game, and reaps huge dollars in merch. Manny pays for himself by Memorial Day.

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