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Wednesday, January 07, 2009

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If the Mets ended up getting Wolf and Redding and not Lowe, that would be a pretty unimpressive rotation. Dare I say, Phillies-like.

Please, land them both. Wolf would be tough against us, but as others have pointed out, he isn't going to finish a season.

clout made the point in the last thread that Redding would be an upgrade from Pedro, who was terrible last year. I suppose that's true, but an upgrade from a terrible No. 5 starter to one who is merely below average is not really what I think of as a meaningful improvement.

A rotation of Santana, an unproven Pelfrey, 2 No. 5 starters, and a total question mark in Maine, would not exactly strike fear into my heart. If Wolf & Redding are all the Mets come away with in terms of starting pitching, it's hard to see how their rotation is better than it was last year.

thephaithful: I'm not so sure that Lien is the villain here.

This is from today's DN: "According to a report on ESPN.com, Lien told Romero to get a second opinion about the supplement the pitcher purchased."

I like Randy Wolf more than most here, but he's worse than Oliver Perez. Plus, Wolfie's due for another injury. If Redding and Wolf replace Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez, I don't wanna hear anymore complaints that "the Mets improved and the Phillies didn't".

Even though they gave away half their players, the Marlins still scare me. If the Mets don't sign Derek Lowe, I'll be just as worried about Florida.

The key for the Mets will be Pelfrey. Until the second half of last year, he had always been long on hype, short on results. Then, around mid-season last year, he suddenly had a dramatic increase in his strikeout to walk ratio -- particularly in July, when he struck out 29 and walked just 3 enroute to a 4-1, 2.70 month. His strikeout:walk ratio was again excellent in August, when he was again 4-1, with a sub-3.00 ERA. A lasting improvement? Possibly. But then, how does one explain his September, when he was right back to throwing nearly as many walks as strikeouts?

If the July-August version of Pelfrey shows up for most of 2009, then the Mets could cobble together a good starting rotation, even if they can do no better than Wolf & Redding in the 4 and 5 spots. If the September version of Pelfrey shows up in 2009, the Mets' rotation -- with the addition of Wolf & Redding -- would not be too impressive.

I agree with BAP re: Pelfrey to a point - then there is also Johnny Maine. Maine, albeit because of injury, has shown an inability to put a hitter away. He often gets out to 0-2 counts, lets the guy get back to 3-2, gets fouled off a bunch and then walks him.

If Maine can learn to keep his pitch count down, he'll be a solid 3. Maybe not this year, but I'll be happy with him as a 4.

Not "to a point." I just agree with you BAP.

Haven't the Mets "improved" the last three offseasons? Seems to have turned out well for them.

posted this on the last thread but more relevant here..just looking for good conversation, not trolling.

they never extended a contract to wolf, just redding. It lowers his price because that leaves only one open spot for the team with the most money to spend for Lowe and most importantly Scott Boras. Boras def wants Lowe in NY, and the mets are calling his bluff with the pricetag. Anybody that thinks the Mets arent getting lowe or Perez is absolutely crazy. And just because they propose a contract doesnt mean its a done deal, they prob lowballed redding just like they did lowe. If Lowe falls through(which I highly doubt and its pretty much a foregone conclusion hes on the Mets because they will not let another team outbid them) then they will settle for Perez. I see a 5% chance of both those falling through leaving the Mets worst case scenerio of probably Wolf and Garland. Redding got an offer to lower Lowes pricetag. Id say as of now its looking like Lowe and redding. Id take the mets rotation with lowe and redding over the phils any day. Not trying to troll just giving an honest opinion.

BAP: Since you can't predict the future, let's assume for the sake of argument each pitcher performs exactly as he did last year. That makes Santana, Pelfrey and Maine a wash. Perez is slightly better than Wolf and Redding is a lot better than Pedro. I'd say it's a slight upgrade, nothing to get excited about.

I'd sooner take my chances that Pedro can return to form than Redding turning a half season fluke into a 2009 season where he could be called "a lot better than Pedro".

If I had to guess I'd say the Mets end up with Lowe eventually.

My 5 year old cousin could have told Romero to "get another opinion". What use is some putz who can't find out whether the supplement is mlb banned or not? Yes, JC Romero is responsible for what goes in his body, but he's also responsible for performing in the major leagues earning millions of dollars to do so.

What is Lein responsbile for? Recommending 2nd opinions? Sounds like an easy job to pretty much say "ask someone else".

Not a Philly fan: You're crazy if you think an offer to Redding has any effect on the Lowe talks. What did Minaya do, call Boras and say, "Listen, if you don't bring down you're price tag, we're going to sign Tim Redding! And I mean it! I'm not playing games here. It's Lowe or Redding... so bring down your price tag!"

Boras couldn't care less about Redding. Redding is a fifth starter. Lowe is a #2. One has nothing to do with the other.

Anon: You don't read so good. I said for the sake of argument assume each pitcher pitches as he did last year. Redding was far better than Pedro.

As for what will happen in 2009, you have no clue.

Well, I don't agree with the premise that Redding is "a lot better than Pedro." Pedro stinks; Redding stinks (unless he's facing the Phillies). The Mets are not going to win a whole lot more games when Redding pitches than they would have won when Pedro pitched last year.

With Boras, it's to the player's - and his - benefit to have a New York team in talks - regardless of whether or not it's true. It drives prices up.

Even if another team comes in and offers more than the Mets, Boras will still go back to them and give them the chance to counter.

I don't see how Redding or Wolf has any effect on the Lowe negotiations. Maybe on each other - maybe - but not Lowe.

BAP: Please go back and read my post again. Thanks.

one does have to do with another. if the deal did go through it would leave the mets with only 1 SP to fill in. Without the mets in for Lowe his price drops significantly. Im not saying Boras cares about redding, but he def cares about money and the mets are the only team willing to give Lowe even close to what he wants. Thats why the mets are throwing other offers out there, not because they dont think they can land lowe, just because they want his price to drop. Which it evetually will and the mets will sign him for 3/42 with an option im guessing. Then next yr should be more fun

Not a Philly fan: Are you suggesting that if the Mets signed Redding then they couldn't sign Lowe?

That's just plain crazy.

The Mets would sign Redding to be a fifth starter and would still need to fill the #2 slot with Lowe or Perez or Wolf.

Signing Redding has NOTHING to do with Lowe and Boras knows it.

Brian G.: I agree. The Mets will end up with Lowe, which will be good news for Beerleaguer because it will give us all something to bitch about.

i never said they couldnt sign lowe..actually my argument is exactly the opposite and that they will sign lowe..the redding offer is to bring lowes price down which I stated already. it does have to do with Boras because he wants Lowe to get the most money and that would be in NY. Redding and Lowe pretty much go hand in hand. Not sure what ur getting at CJ. The contract offer to redding leaves 1 spot open and that helps decrease lowes pricetag

mw217 -
Pat the Bat-Ray that is scary weird!

I also can't see how bidding on Redding has anything to do with Lowe or Perez, but I happen to agree that one of those two will end up in NY next year, even if it takes a while until Minaya or Boras blinks.

BOTTOM LINE, WOLF IS A MUSH/COOLER. HIS TEAMS DONT WIN ANYTHING. HE IS A PRODUCT OF THE LIEBY/TITO ERA. THEY CAN HAVE HIM.

Not a Philly fan, you seem to be assuming that signing Redding guarantees him a rotation spot, which I don't think is necessarily true. mediocre fringe starters like him are perfect swingman fodder.

I can't for the life of me see how the Mets only having one remaining rotation spot helps to bring down Lowe's pricetag.

Because he has said how much he WANTS to pitch for the Mets?

If anything, it would make him hold firm - because he's still the best FA on the market - better than Ollie, Lowe or Garland - and knows it.

I give up.

New York Mets fans apparently do not understand simple logic.

ae: Excellent point. Jonathan Niese might win that spot.

Wait - I understand logic.

And, I hope Niese doesn't win the spot. I think he'll duplicate Pelfrey's first season. They should leave him in AAA for another year, IMHO.

From the last thread~

CJ~ I'd rather have kept a younger Burrell and his RH bat than an older Ibanez and his LH one. I didn't say Ibanez isn't a good player. He put up numbers that's for sure. But they still need a RH bat. Amaro hasn't upgraded anything. Blanton doesn't replace Eaton now. He replaced him last season. An upgrade to the rotation to the rotation would be another pitcher capable of winning I'd say 12 games. A good RH bat would be nice. How about Cruz for the 'pen? And now we need another lefty.

The owners' just won't spend the dough. When you don't improve and other teams do, you regress. It's not about who we lost. It's about what you do to make a WS Champ. team better. Amaro hasn't done that IMO.

Phaithful~ You're right. There's a lot "ifs". We all know where that gets you. I'd like to see some of the "ifs" turned to positives.

Presumably Lowe understands that the Mets are seeking two pitchers. If so, I don't see how their signing one seriously upsets his plans.

The longer and longer free agents go unsigned, the cheaper they'll get and that's bad news for the Phils since their roster is already full. Teams like the Mets and Braves are going to swoop in and sign decent guys for chump change compared to the old days (old days- see 2007).

Im baffled as to why no one else is disgusted with Doug Lein and his inability to tell Romero if he should have taken the supplement or not.

Yes, the suspension has merit, it in the end its Romero's body and he's the #1 person repsonsible for it. But c'mon, this Lein guy's laziness/stupidity just cost the Phillies a top reliver for 50 games.

How is he not fired right on the spot or having his house egged and vandalized?

if my boss asks me to verify that all the numbers in his report are correct, and I just simply pass it along to someone else, and then the report ends up losing the company 1.25 millino dollars... I'm guessing my ass is out of a job.

Simple fact:

Wolf is much more likely to breakdown than Perez. That and Perez ability to throw a bit harder at this point is his career are why I would rather see the Mets sign Wolf than Perez.

If the Mets sign Wolf and Redding and pencil them in for them in as their last 2 starters, then they haven't improved their starting pitching (which along with their bullpen was Minaya's supposed biggest concern this offseason).

What is an interesting argument though is do the Mets sign a guy like Wolf who comes at a likely much cheaper price tag for a shorter duration (say $7M/year vs. $12-$13M/) and use that extra money to sign another quality bullpen arm (e.g., Cruz) instead and dip into a few reclamation projects to see if one pans out in the pen?

Here is the Matt Cerrone/Metsblog info on the pitching front, in case anyone wants pure speculation.

http://www.metsblog.com/2009/01/07/starting-pitcher-mets-boras-and-derek-lowe/

patrone: Whether or not he can win 12 games, JA Happ is at the point in his career where we at least have to give him a shot. Also, honest question: You say the Phillies FO won't spend, how much do you think would be reasonable payroll for the Phillies to have next year?

GM Carson: Completely agree. This was the perfect year to raid a weak market, not set it by signing a 36 year old for 3 years. I'm gonna blame bap for putting too much pressure on the FO to act quickly to meet his Dec 17th deadline.

Brian: Well, BAP doesn't have a problem with moving quickly or even over-paying. I do have a problem with targeting another left-handed hitter, and with giving a 3-year deal to a 37-year old player.

@thephaithful: I'm with you 100%. I am assuming the team hired Lein to make sure the players are in the proper physical shape, which includes overseeing their supplements. If it isn't, then that's indicative of how poorly supervised this franchise is. If it was, and he was lax in performing his job by not helping Romero get the proper advice on that supplement, then he should be canned. If he isn't, then again it is indicative of this franchise.

WFC or not, this ownership group and FO should be doing better than this.

http://www.courant.com/features/hc-webbaseballcard.artjan07,0,2557404.story

Check out this link (not spam, don't worry). Crazy old lady found this 140 year old baseball card and then tried to sell it on Ebay for $10...its apparently worth at least $100K.

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