Beer nuts: Dubee becoming hot property, perhaps?

Last night before bed, I jotted down some ideas for future posts and never got around to fleshing them out. Here they are in bullet form.

-- I read a piece in ESPN magazine recently on how one-time pitching gurus Leo Mazzone and Rick Peterson are out of work and I got to thinking whether Rich Dubee has raised his status into one of the premiere pitching coaches in the league. Breakout seasons and career bests abounded in 2008 and it’s a safe guess that past failures had more to do with staffing issues on the part of the Phillies' front office. So is Dubee hot pitching coach property these days?

-- What should one expect from Joe Blanton next season? We can all agree he was one of the unheralded heroes of the postseason and his brief time in Philadephia is generally regarded as a success, but he came to town with some baggage, including a lot of miles on his arm from his time in Oakland. Will he continue to post cavernous home/away splits? Will his K-rate improve? Can his weird delivery hold up?

-- Scott Eyre has something to prove; I talked to him at the winter tour and he made it clear that serving as a club’s lone situational lefthander is nothing new to him. We continue to expect the Phils to pick up additional help, but there’s a strong chance it isn’t coming, and even if it does, Eyre will still serve a major role. He might be just fine at it. In fact, even when Romero returns, by then, the job of top situational lefty could be Eyre's to lose. Remember: Eyre has been a model of consistency over his career and basically had one bad stretch with Chicago, where Romero has fluctuated a couple times from outstanding to terrible.

Comments

[mike cunningham]

It's amazing what becoming a WFC will do.

I've never been a Dubee fan. But is it any wonder Dubee became a better coach... once Jamie Moyer entered the Phillies dugout?

You hear Myer's name come out of the pitching staff rather than Dubee. When Myers went on his minor league stint, didnt' he have his high school coach around???

I'm not sure what Dubee's influence is on this team.

[AWH]

JW, one, I think we all recognize Dubee's value.

Two, I expect Joe Blanton to "rebound" in 2009, and to post a winning record, buiding on his playoff success. He's my sleeper pick for 2009. Yes, I believe his delivery will hold up. He's logged a lot of innings and durability has never been a question.

Third, thank goodness for Lou Pinella's doghouse!!! Fittingly, Scott Eyre got the last laugh.

Lastly, I''l repost this from the last thread:

http://rksbaseballbookshelf.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/mets21.JPG

[AWH]

mike c, you bring up valis points, but Dubee was also instrumental in getting Madson to reach his potential. Also, his influence on KK has been positive.

I just hope they can get KK turned around so he doesn't turn into the second coming of Brandon Duckworth.

[Stink]

I think dubee is very underated as a pitching coach and some of the past criticism was unwarranted, Even charlie has come out and said that Dubee hasnt always had the best stuff to work with, Its pretty hard to look impressive when you have to rely on antonio alfonseca as your closer for 2 months and depend on guys like yoel hernandez and joe table to set up for him

[thephaithful]

re: Blanton

I could see him piling up a lot of wins by grinding it out through 6 innings in the majority of his starts, and keeping the Phils in every game. Maybe one of those high win guys who still carries a less than desired ERA.

to lock up my ever so stellar rep of always being wrong i'll throw a prediction out there.

17-8 4.30 ERA in 205IP with a K/BB ratio around 2.25

Meaning... im optimistic.

[EastFallowfield]

How to post a link...

< a href="link address">Words you want to act as your link< /a>

Must remove the spaces after the two "<" s

[clout]

AWH: How many innings did Eyre pitch last season?

[AWH]

Just for clout, a Bobby Abreu update from MLBTR:

"Bobby Abreu Lowers Expectations

By Tim Dierkes [January 27 at 3:02pm CST]

According to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, free agent outfielder Bobby Abreu has lowered his expectations to the three-year, $10-11MM range of Raul Ibanez and Milton Bradley.

The Dodgers, Reds, or Braves could get in on Abreu, but I imagine they'd still balk at the price."

[clout]

thephaitful: That would be a career year for Joe. You're predicting he'll have a career year because....?

[AWH]

clout, what's your point?

[ae]

I was so shocked to find out that Brandon Duckworth started 7 games for the Royals last year. poor Kansas City. at least he's better than Hideo Nomo.

[NEPP]

I think between Dubee and Moyer, we have one of the top pitching coach staffs in MLB. Dave Duncan is probably the best along with Mazzone (even if he is currently unemployed).

[AWH]

clout: Rather, what's last season got to do with my being thankful the Phillies have Eyre going into 2009?

See, some of us can actually ask a question without being purposefully vague, no?

[ae]

I'm not nearly that optimistic about Blanton in 2008, but it's not completely out of line to predict a career season from Blanton, considering that he's 7-5 with a 4.09 ERA against the NL for his career.

(also, I have to point out that while a 17-8 record is ridiculously optimistic--I mean, Hamels was "only" 14-10--a 4.30 ERA isn't that unreasonable. that's a ~100 ERA+ in Philadelphia.)

[clout]

AWH: If a team gets Abreu for the same price as Ibanez, that's a pretty good deal.

Abreu has had 100 RBIs in each of the past 6 years, has scored 100 runs in 4 of the 6 (98 and 99 the other 2) and had an average OPS+ of 128.

Ibanez has had 100 RBI 3 times in past 6 years, 100 runs once and had an average OPS+ of 117.

I won't mention the difference in SBs and OB.

[clout]

AWH: I guess my point is that Scott Eyre piutched 25 innings last season, 11 terrible and 14 great. If you feel that's enough to predict a great season for him, God Bless You and I hope you're right.

[baxter]

Clout, I know how much you love Bobby Abreu, but compare their numbers over the past 2-3 years.

[AWH]

clout, being thankful the Phils will have at least one situational lefty with experience out of the pen next season does not make anyone a cockeyed optimist.

Would you prefer they went completely with a RH bullpen?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Seth Evertt made an interesting point on 610 today (yes, thoughtful points on sports talk) about the stagnant free agent market.

Some teams may want to sign a veteran free agent, like Abreu, but they look at teams like the Tigers and Blue Jays who have high payrolls and are going to have MAJOR financial difficulties b/c of the economy (Detroit unemployment, Toronto's major sponsor, GM, has backed out). Therefore, they think they are better off waiting for Toronto to dump a guy like Vernon Wells for next to nothing, rather than sign some Vets.

[AWH]

clout, first of all, I am on record as agreeing with you about the debacle that was the Abreu trade.

Second, get some thicker skin. I was just joshin' ya.

[ae]

Clout, I know how much you love Bobby Abreu, but compare their numbers over the past 2-3 years.

okay!

Ibanez 470 G / .291-.354-.492 / 111 2B / 77 HR / 338 RBI / 268 RS / 4 SB
Abreu 470 G / .292-.388-.459 / 120 2B / 51 HR / 308 RBI / 321 RS / 77 SB

although Ibanez does have such a long history of taking his teams to the playoffs, unlike that choker Abreu.

[MG]

If Minaya is smart, he will continue to wait out the market and the probable $10M-$12M he has left to spend. He might just be able to sign Garland to a 1 yr and bring in Hudson to 2B which would be a huge upgrade offensively and defensively.

[baxter]

Considering the teams they played for, Ibanez has been better than Abreu over the past 3 years. Abreu is no longer the OBP machine he was for the Phillies.

[ae]

I agree, MG--one of my biggest problems with the Ibanez signing was that Amaro set the market for slugging/bad defense corner OFs. that could prove to be a huge mistake in this economic climate.

[baxter]

I'd rather have 10 more hrs a year than 10 more walks

[MG]

ae - But that is assuming the Ibanez maintains his current power stroke and able to hit 20-25 HRs. If Ibanez drop down to say 15 HRs, his .SLG pct takes a hit too around .440-.450.

That makes Ibanez more of league average player (especially as a corner OF) and paying a defensively liability $10M/year for league average offensive isn't a good contract.

[clout]

Stink: Very good point. It should be noted that Dubee was the Marlins minor league pitching instructor in the 3 years leading up to their 1997 World Championship, which included some pretty good young pitchers.

[MG]

Didn't think much of Dubee since the results he had with the pitching staff were mixed during his 3 first years ('05-'06).

Still, it is really hard to tell and the talent level was never that high especially in '06 when the Phils were short one or two legimitate starters in their rotation nearly all year/bullpen that was shot by end of the year and '07 when the staff got wracked by injuries and didn't exactly have a ton of talent to begin with either.

In fact, the only guy that I would say has never reached his real potential under Dubee is Myers. Part of that is being yanked back-and-forth to the bullpen/rotation and part Myers being a blockhead.

[Brian G]

MG: We've had this discussion before, but I'd contend that Myers did reach his potential. Two straight years of approx. 200 innings, 200 k's, 1.25 whip and 120 ERA+. What more are you looking for from him? The Yankees just gave AJ Burnett 90mil in the hope that he can do that on a consistent basis.
The fact that Myers got yanked to the bullpen the following year shouldn't count against the argument that he was able to reach his potential.

[clout]

baxter: Which statitsics are you using to show that Ibanez has been better than Abreu the past 3 years? Or you just saying that because you think so?

[clout]

AWH: Huh? I was simply making the point that if you can get Abreu for a contract at or below Ibanez, you are getting a bargain.

BTW, I don't want him back on the Phillies for the same reason I think Ibanez is a mistake. We needed a righty, not another lefty.

[mikes77phillies]

From a Bobby Abreu fan: Bobby Abreu is going down and Ibanez has stayed the same or gotten better over the last 3 years.

[clout]

mikes: OK we'll skip the years in which Abreu was far superior to Ibanez and just take the past 3 where their OPS+ is close. Abreu is a better fielder and steals bases (77 in past 3 years). Oh, and his OPS+ went UP last season, not down.

[Billy Mac]

I am with Mike Cunningham. If Dubee is so good, why do none of the pitchers ever give him credit ? Whereas they heap praise on Moyer on all of the responsibilities normally of the pitching coach (mechanics, pep talks, game day adjustments, preparation etc...) If Dubee is responsible for game day bullpen management and which pitchers make the team, this has been solid. Has Dubee ever successfully taught someone a new pitch ? I challenge someone to find one positive quote from a Phils' pitcher about Dubee. I have never seen one.

[clout]

P.S.: Yeah, well Ollie did good only because he's a lefty and this year the Phillies are going to pound lefties because they went out and got...oh, wait.

[Lake Fred]

I think that Moyer is secretly a part time pitching coach. That's how Junior justified Moyers IMO high salary. Part of Moyer's salary comes out of the Coaches Salary Budget. A damn good expenditure if you ask me. WFC, baby!!! I think Moyer's maturity and advice to the younger players contributed much to the Phils winning the WFC.

[Jack]

Clout: Um, thephaithful's prediction about Blanton doesn't actually predict a career year, except in terms of W-L. He's posted better years in ERA, IP, and K/BB ratio. So, what are you talking about? I think you just failed to do some research there.

In terms of W-L, which everyone knows is quite clearly not the best measure to use in judging a pitcher, he has posted years of 16-12 and 14-10, so 17-8 is not even close to out of the question considering the 2009 Phillies project to be the best offense Blanton has pitched in front of.

Also, considering Blanton will be 28, right in the middle of his peak years, what was so ridiculous about that prediction? How different would your prediction be?

[mike cunningham]

@Billy -- Agreed regarding "teaching a new pitch" concept.

KK is a perfect example of Dubee's lack of success. KK obviously had the guts and fortitude to go out with minimal stuff and get outs. I seem to recall something about his 2 outs and RISP as an indicator of his "ability to get out of jams". It was his lack of stuff that got him into the predicament and what the Phillies were concerned with. (Perhaps this would make him a candidate for a reliever?)

I understand that the minors is a better place for him to work on a second pitch. But we saw last year 3 pitchers that required "course corrections" -- okay eaton doesn't really count -- And they were all sent AWAY from Dubee.

We saw in the Myers case (and the Eaton case) that mechanics were significant problems. These were issues that Analyst Mitch Williams was able to recognize time and again for both players. Why couldn't Dubee correct those problems while they were with the big league team?

Obviously, it's a two-way street and perhaps both Eaton and Myers were such "blockheads" they needed to be sent away to learn. But the fact that the Phillies still became WFC sending 3 of your starting 5 to the minors to work on things because your pitching coach couldn't do anything with them with the big club is surprising to me. It just seems like this is the kind of thing that a Leo Mazzone would have nailed down before it became a problem?

Of course he was working with better talent. So I guess it's a wash.

Charlie Manuel will always say its the players that makes the Managers. When you have a super stud like Hamels and a crafty veteran like Moyer, it certainly makes it easier to sit there with a pitch counter in your hand.

[Klaus]

"See, some of us can actually ask a question without being purposefully vague, no?"

Ah AHW, but you fail to see the uses of glibness. It lets you start an argument and then, if you're bested, allows you room to claim you never meant to start one. Like, "hey, I was just curious as to how many innings Eyre pitched, that's all."

A neat trick.

[Jack]

Clout: In fact, Blanton's career averages (which you always harp on, saying incessantly a player will always revert to his career norms) are strikingly close to thephaithful's prediction:

career: 4.24 ERA, 212 IP, 2.06 K/BB ratio

phaithful: 4.30 ERA, 205 IP, 2.25 K/BB ratio

[AWH]

Now, now, Jack.

Don't you know it's impossible for players to have career years at the age of 28.

That's way past their prime years.

[clout]

Jack: OK, what was his career year? The year he won the most games? The year he had the best ERA? The year he had the most IP?

Looks like you put yourself in box there, jack-o.

[clout]

AWH: You predicting a career year too? Nice to see so much optimism this early.

[clout]

klaus: And others are pretenious and like to use big words to show how smart they are. Takes all kinds I guess.

[AWH]

Boy clout, you do have thin skin..........................no?

[Jack]

Clout: Blanton's career season, so far, for your viewing pleasure. Significantly better in every category other than W-L than what Phathiful predicted. And he went 14-10 for a 76 win team that only scored 741 runs.

2007:

14-10, 3.95 ERA, 230 IP, 140 K, 40 BB, 1.21 WHIP

Any other questions?

[NEPP]

I think the fact that Moyer is a HUGE part of the pitching staff from the mentor standpoint and that was it is easier to swallow his 2010 salary. Odds are highly against him being effective in the 2nd year of his deal but at least he'll be able to help with coaching. Pretty much every pitcher on the staff has credited Moyer with helping their game from Hamels to Madson, etc etc.

[clout]

Jack: I don't recall phaithful mentioning Ks, BB or WHIP, do you?

[clout]

AWH: Does that mean you're NOT predicting a career year for Blanton?

[AWH]

Boy clout (or is it Boy Scout), my prediction for Blanton is at the top of the thread.

Purposely vague.

Remind you of anyone?

[NEPP]

Theoretically, Blanton should be in his prime so there is no reason to expect him not to have a good year in 09. Besides, if he keeps up his every other year with an ERA+ over 100, 09 should be better than 08.

[MG]

In regards to Dubee & Myers:

Myers did ignore Dubee last early and insisted on throwing his 83-85 MPH cutter and Dubee responded by criticizing him in public which has been rare for any Phils' coach to do during Cholly's tenure.

[NEPP]

Sometimes with a guy like Myers (an unmitigated ass) you have to humiliate to get them to see the light.

The other way is to simply implant a device in his brain that shocks him if ever throws a cutter and or slider again. Stick with fastball setting up curve and mix in the change to keep um honest, nothing more.

Does he even throw a split finger FB anymore?

IIRC he throws a 4 seamer, 2 seamer, sinker, curve, circle change, and a cutter/slider (unfortunately).

[Jack]

Clout: Phaithful predicted a 2.25/1 K/BB ratio. I put the Ks and BBs in there so you could see that Blanton had previously put up a ratio better than that. You're right that WHIP wasn't included. Oversight on my part.

Now, to the question at hand. His stats in 2007 were clearly better than what Phaithful predicted in 2009, except for his W-L record. Ergo, if you think phaithful's prediction was a career year, you must think W-L is the sole indicator of a pitcher's best season. Is that true?

[NEPP]

Here's a great article from Hardball Times on Jamie Moyer (I apologize if we posted this back in Dec when it originally came out) - http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/being-jamie-moyer/

[mikes77phillies]

clout: I know i'm going to hate myself later for responding to your semi rhetorical question regarding Ibanez and Abreu, but I'll take the bait. The ONLY redeeming quality(and/or sensible opinion) you have is that you are one of the few guys that appreciates the abilities of Bobby Abreu.
I did not say that Raul Ibanez is definitely a better player than Abreu (But its close). I said, in so many words that i believe that Abreu is on a downward slope as opposed to Ibanez, who is maintaining or getting better with age. Abreu's OPS+ SHOULD be better than Ibanez's. Abreu bats in front of ARod and Posada. Ibanez bats in front of Adrian Beltre.
I expect Ibanez to be the better player the next 2 years the way their careers are going.

[skeeter4]

Re: Ibanez vs. Abreu......let's not forget to throw intangibles into the mix. How many times did we see Abreu get a clutch hit in a Phils uniform? I can probably count the number of times on one hand. All I keep hearing about Ibanez is how he is a class act and a good locker room guy. I'd rather have Ibanez.

[king myno]

skeeter4: Ut oh. Don't get into an "intangibles" argument with clout.

(Half-kidding, because even us hardcore Phils fans can only know so much about what a player brings to a clubhouse/team's emotional level, and how much that actually matters)

[Arthur]

Heres your proof billy mac-

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20081008_Rich_Hofmann__Phillies_pitchers_respond_to_Dubee_s_calm_approach.html

http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080323/SPORTS01/803230375/1021

http://blogs.chron.com/sportsjustice/archives/2008/10/do_you_miss_bra.html

I agree that moyer is a good influence on the pitching staff, but people should give dubee some credit

[ae]

Ibanez has stayed the same or gotten better over the last 3 years.

this is demonstrably untrue; his HR have gone from 33 to 21 to 23 and his SLG has gone from .516 to .480 to .479. fact is Ibanez had a career season in 2006 with 33 HR and 123 RBI. his 162 game average is 21 HR and 93 RBI.

I do happen to think that Ibanez will have a solid season next year. I think he'll hit 20-25 HR (assuming no serious injuries of course). but the fact is that 37+ year old players have hard enough time maintaining their skills, let alone "improving."

Re: Ibanez vs. Abreu......let's not forget to throw intangibles into the mix. How many times did we see Abreu get a clutch hit in a Phils uniform? I can probably count the number of times on one hand.

LULZ

[thephaithful]

I picked a high win total because I feel that Blanton has a nice track record of getting past the 5th inning while keeping the game close.

That type of consistency on a Phils team usually translates into a lot of wins - Kendrick in 07 (10W in 20GS) and Moyer in 08 (16W in 33 GS). Also, the 2.25 K/BB ratio was more of an indication that his BB will be low, which in front of a good defensive team(overall) should keep him out of big innings.

I'm not putting money on the prediction or anything, just thought I'd put it out there that I'm very optimistic about a full year of Big Joe, and feel good about our team in general when we can get a pitcher who will get them into/past the 5th with a decent chance to win.

[Goody]

The only thing optimistic about the Blanton predictions is 18 wins. With this teams propensity for scoring late, nobody will win this many games unless halve of them are complete games, and cholly will NEVER let that happen.

[thephaithful]

And i shouldn't have to include, but will just incase others want to use it against my post:

I know Hamels gets them past the 5th almost all the time and has never won 17 games in a season, but we all know that Hamels' gets regularly shafted by the offense. If Blanton gets Hamel-like run support than my prediction will fall flat on its face.

[Goody]

Sorry, that should have been half, not halve.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

If Blanton pitches well and regularly squares up against No. 4 guys in NL rotations, he could pile up some wins. 17 might be high.

[fljerry]

I could of sworn just about everyone in here used to complain how bad Abreu was in outfield.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

fljerry,

I have a hunch this time next year, some will look back and remember Burrell has a gold glover.

[thephaithful]

bbeard: you mean Abreu was a gold glover - not Burrell. Both are ludacris statements, shame one actually happened.

[thephaithful]

from MLBTR: Padres looking for veteran LH bat. Some names that the site mentions are of the bargian bin types - Wilkerson, Daryl Ward, Sweeney.

Matt Stairs? Seems pretty expendable on the Phils, and a better option to the Pads than the players listed above. I took a look at the Padres roster, didnt see any RH bat options to exchange, maybe go after mid level prospect.

[mvptommyd]

Ahh how I miss this site. People still arguing over bobby abreu what seems like 10 yrs since he was on this team. When looking at the stats as everyone loves to base all their judgements on, just remember that Ibanez was one of the main run producers and best hitters on a horrible mariner team. Which means he didn't see nearly as many good pitches as say a abreu who was batting in the same lineup as arod, jeter, cano, damon etc.. Therefore who would you rather pitch to a abreu and take your chances or let one of those guys come up and have a greater possibility of breaking a game open.

Also, since clout and company want to try to prove their baseball greatness, they seem to forget that king bobby had the WORST jumps and angles on balls I have ever seen. He himself turned singles into doubles alone.

[note]

You know what would be nice; clout dying of cancer.

[GM-Carson]

*Dick Dick Dubee's (aka-Richard Peter Dubee) stock should have stayed the same. I never really thought he was that great, and it seems many of the pitchers give props to Grand Pappy Moyer over Ol' Smokey.

*Joe Blanton is capable of a 4-4.35 era with 12-14 wins...I'll take it! I also expect him to put up close to 200 innings

*Scott Eyre will be fine if he's used as a situational lefty, if not then that could be instant trouble.

[AWH]

note, or whoever you are: That type of rhetoric is uncalled for. Many of us have disagreements with each other, and clout is in the middle of many of them, but those type of sentiments should be banned from BL - as should you.

Next time, have the courage at least to post under your real handle. Otherwise, hold on to the tail that's stuck between your legs and slink off back to the gutter you came from.

[Hope SE]

AWH: Amen.

[Andy]

note - Not appropriate - not even if you're a Met troll.

[ae]

When looking at the stats as everyone loves to base all their judgements on, just remember that Ibanez was one of the main run producers and best hitters on a horrible mariner team.

"[Lineup] protection is overrated. There's no evidence that having a superior batter behind another batter provides the initial batter with better pitches to hit." from this.

king bobby had the WORST jumps and angles on balls I have ever seen. He himself turned singles into doubles alone.

you're going to love Ibanez then.

[Lake Fred]

Dittos, Andy, on your comment to note. You don't wish cancer on anybody. Cancer is a horrible nasty disease that takes out loved ones before their time. I'll use Carson's words: Note is a douchebag!

[Andy]

ae - Nice links. As someone who appreciates humor, I now am reversing my initial judgment on the Ibanez signing and look eagerly forward to some classic Phils moments.

[clout]

ae: Pretty funny. Even the most casual fan knows that Abreu was a very good fielder for most of his career (although the GG was a bit much). He had above average range and an excellent arm throughout his career here. What everybody hated was that, near the end and especially after the move to CBP, he wouldn't go all out on balls near the wall. At this point, Abreu is a below average fielder due to decreasing range, although his arm remains above average. Only the most uninformed fan would suggest that Ibanez was ever a better fielder than Abreu.

[Andy]

ae - I do disagree with the book, however. Would Barry Bonds have gotten so many intentional and semi-intentional walks if, say, Ryan Howard or Albert Pujols were batting behind him? In most line-ups, however, I think that most good pitchers will usually pitch to the batter they're facing.

Which reminds me of this joke:
What do you do with an Elephant with three balls?

[NEPP]

We used to go to games and bet how many innings it would take Bobby to get any dirt or grass stains on his uni. Now why ever would we do something crazy like that?

[clout]

Jack: 2007 wasn't bad, but I'll go with his rookie year, 2005, when he had an ERA+ of 125 (career high), WHIP of 1.21 (career high later tied) and a career best BB/K ratio (67/116).

With regard to wins, I realize it's fashionable to say they're meaningless, but they really aren't. While it's true wins don't always reflect good pitching,t he feact is, they usually do. In the past wins have been overrated as a measure of evaluating a pitcher's performance. But to throw them out completely is stupid. They don't award the pennant for best ERA+ and WHIP.

[mikes77philles]

ae: When you say that it is "demonstrably untrue" that Ibanez has stayed the same or getting better, you concentrate on 2006 being his best season. Last I checked 2006 was a part of the past 3 seasons.
You fail to point out that that in 2008 Ibanez was better statsically in GMs, ABs, Rs, Hrs, RBIs, Walks, AVG, OBP, OPS than he was in 2007. You also fail to point out that 2008 and 2006 were 2 of the 3 best years of his career. If a player has had 2 of his best seasons the last 3 years its safe to say he is NOT declining.

So again, Ibanez has stayed the same or gotten better the last 3 years.

[clout]

NEPP: Don't know. I don't know why you think Feliz should start games vs. RHP either. I guess Abreu stole all those bases without sliding.

[clout]

mikes: as ae showed, Ibanez SLG and HR rate have declined the past 2 years. That is a significant part of a corner outfielder's game, no?

Some of the stats you list are counting stats and therefore meaningless since they are dependent on how much he played. He had 73 more PAs last year than in 2007. I think you're on firmer ground by saying except for a decrease in power, Ibanez has stayed about the same offensively the past 3 years. There is zero evidence that he's "gotten better."

[clout]

Andy: Walk him and pitch to the giraffe.

[ae]

mikes - I have no problem agreeing that Ibanez has been basically consistent over the past several years aside from a power spike in 2006. as I said, I'm pretty confident that he will hit 20-25 HR and get over 100 RBI in Philadelphia next year as long as he plays in 150+ games.

my issue is more with the claim that Ibanez has been "improving" over the past three years, which I still think is plainly not true. that's not a knock on Ibanez; for a guy to have his offensive peak at age 34-36 is very impressive. however I do think it's wishcasting to assume that his peak will continue with no decline at ages 37-39.

(one note: I'm kind of suspicious of the quoted 124 OPS+ for 2008 on baseball-reference. I think there's maybe a faulty park factor there, since it seems odd to me that a .869 OPS in 2006 and a .837 OPS in 2008 are essentially equivalent in the same ballpark. I could be wrong.)

[thephaithful]

clout: think you might have mixed up the ratio by accident.

year k bb ratio

2005 116 67 1.7
2006 107 58 1.8
2007 140 40 3.5
2008 111 66 1.7

His ratio with the Phils in 2008 was subpar for his career - 49k/31b - 1.5 Ratio. I believe he will improve on that in 2009.

[Andy]

ae - The home park factor (which is used for OPS+) is performance based relative to MLB. It was significantly lower in 2006 than 2008 (94 vs. 97).

[clout]

thephaithful: You're right. I missed that one.

[thephaithful]

andy: where do you find home park factors? I took a look at ESPN's.. they CAN'T be right!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2007

They have CBP dead last at 0.5 and Dodger stadium at over 2.2. Haha not something i'd call reliable.

[Andy]

phaithful -

I found them here

I hope that the link works.

[Andy]

Great thanks to East Fallowfield for successfully teaching a dinosaur how to eat with chopsticks.

Here's the comparison page.

The 2006 season

[Andy]

And now, just because I really want to practice doing this, here are the links for the B-Ref team pages of PHI, COL and SDP so we can compare their park factors. Please note that the truly ludicrous park in the mess is not CBP, but Petco. Either something needs to be done about that place, or the Pads need to sign Ed Delahanty, Sam Thompson and Billy Hamilton.

CBP
Petco
Coors

[ae]

or Chief Wilson.

36 is a lot of triples.

[Andy]

ae - But the Chief couldn't handle the pressure of the post season, evidently.

[Andy]

Actually, I am just overly fond of the 1894 - 96 Phils' OF. I think it's gotta be one of the best "tools" OFs ever - probably the inspiration for the current drafting philosophy.

[Andy]

Padres looking for veteran LH bat.

I'm not sure if Stairs has the legs necessary for Petco. But I'm wondering if this guy is along the lines of what you're thinking (since no one in their right mind would trade, like, Chase Headley or the Kous for a bag-of-beans like Stairs).

Whenever I take a gander at the SDP's minor league rosters, I wonder at what point the Pads may begin sending their myriad 3B prospects off into the baseball universe? (Kinda like the Phils with Catchers.)

[NEPP]

Perhaps they could give Stairs a golf cart to patrol the OF? Its big enough to require one.

[MG]

Mike77 - I bet that Ibanez hits at least 20 HRs this season too but not much more. Still, Ibanez's value is heavily tied to his power numbers. If he only hits 15 or 16 HRs, his SLG likely dips to .450-.460 which really close to the league average. You don't pay a corner OF $10M/year to give you .290/.350/.460 with poor defense.

BTY an OPS of .810 would have placed Ibanez last year 13th out of 18th qualified LFs in the MLB. Ahead of only Scott, Lewis, Anderson, Young, and Blanco and the only one of these guys currently making big money is Anderson and is contract is widely acknowledged as a poor one.

To insist that Ibanez is "going to improve" his power stroke as he ages is absurd. This isn't the late 90s where players in their late 30s suddenly and miraculous have amazing power numbers.