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Wednesday, December 10, 2008

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Good work Jason. I imagine one of those sites will mention Sabathia? Seems done.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/12102008/sports/yankees/yanks_close_in_on_sabathia_deal_143481.htm

Good for the Phils, I suppose, in that if Sabathia had gone elsewhere Lowe and Burnett would have been heading to the Bronx. If the Yanks sign Burnett, it might lower the price on Lowe.

I know I've been harsh in regards to Manuel in the past, but bottomline is he's the right manager for this team, and I'm happy for him and his extension through 2011.

I feel a big signing or trade happening involving the Phils today. I'm using my "Gut" just like Charlie...mine is a bit smaller though.

I'm reading all kinds of stuff about these rumors, and here's the one I like best- Kyle Kendrick and Jason Jaramillo to the Cubs for DeRosa. Cubs then flip the players including others to San Diego.

How is Jaramillo even on the map? He hasn't budged from AAA in years ...

Carson - I like that too, from a Phils perspective. If I were the Pads giving up Peavy, though, and those two were half the package I was offered? Well...not so much, thanks.

JW: In re: Carson's rumor -

My youngest daughter is going to pre-school today, where she begins "J" week, where all the kids will be doing "J" words until next Tuesday and they're all bringing in items that begin with "J." (She's taking a "Jam Jar of Jellybeans" {Starburst Jellybeans, incidentally, which are the Elevator Action of Jellybeans.)

The rumors might be evidence that it's "J" week at the Bellagio, too.

Because switchhitting catchers who provide good defense ARE actually an asset when you don't have Ruiz entrenched on your big league team and Lou Marson in the minors.

I "hate" to "lose" Kendrick and Jaramillo but if that's the price I guess I'd just have to deal with it.

NEPP - Nice use of the "descriptive" quotation marks.

Bad news from Stark on ESPN. He says that Ibanez's first choice is the Phillies. I vote no.

I like Ibanez, just not on the Phillies.

JW, Jaramillo is mentioned in a SD Union Tribune article linked on MLBTR.


NEPP, also, when you think about it, if you're Towers, wouldn't you want the backup catcher who's NOT arb eligible after 2009.

Coste, while still inexpensive for 2009, I believe becomes arb eligible in 2010, and will probably get a decent raise, especially in light of the contract Dave Ross just signed with the Bravos.

So, from that standpoint, if the catcher the Pads would be getting is merely going to be a backup, then why not Jaramillo instead of Coste?

Also, Jaramillo IS 10 years younger than Coste.

I like Ibanez too...also not on the Phillies. From all accounts he's a great guy and a hard worker (he's good friends with Edgar Martinez and gets training tips from him) but he doesnt seem to be a good fit for Philly.

Jroll
Vic
Utz
Howard
Werth
Ibanez
Feliz / Dobbs
Ruiz

isn't that bad. Didn't Ibanez hit over .300 against lefties last year?

or would you rather plug Rivera in that lineup?

Or is it the contract that is scaring everyone? Locking up and aging LFer which could hurt our chances of signing a pitcher?

Ibanez is old, slow, poor fielder, bats lefthanded, and is expensive. He can hit though. He hit lefties well last year, but not over his career not so much.

Its the combination of his age, a multi year deal, another lefty bat and his career L/R splits.

Ok, his career L/R splits is a good excuse. LF in CBP is a fairly easy position to handle defensively.

I personaly like Milton Bradley if we are going the free agent route.

I'll stick my neck out and speculate a little, but I don't think the Phillies WANT to go 3yrs/10+MM Ibanez.

They would lose the "payroll flexibility" they so crave.

Unless, of course, their LT plan is to trade Howard after the season (remember, only one team will land Tex, and if it's either Boston or the Yankees the pressure on the other will be enormous), and move Ibanez to 1B.

That would give them another year to see what they have in Taylor, or to see if they can get something out of Mayberry.

I still wouldn't like the 2009 lineup.

Add Ibanez to that lineup and it will be ludicrously susceptible to left-handers.

Carson's list of reasons why it's a bad idea covered everything but the lost draft pick. I realize the 30th pick isn't all that valuable, but this is supposed to be a deep draft.

also Ibanez is a type A and was offered arb by the M's so we would lose 2 picks for him.

CC Sabathia to the Yanks. Rosenthal reports 7 yrs - $160MM.

I wonder what this will do for Burnett and Lowe, and the rest of the FA pitchers.

More importantly for the Phils, what does this do for Cole Hamels?

If he has another year like last, the Phils do make the playoffs, and he has a postseason anywhere close to 2008 - YIKES!

Hamels will be worth more than Sabathia when he hits the open market.

This helps us with Lowe as the Yankees will be less likely to overpay for him now. I bet they go with Sheets as their 2nd FA pitcher now.

michael - They get two picks, we only lose one, (which is still ludicrously bad considered we will gain none from the Burrell and Moyer signings!?!); the other pick they get is a sandwich pick added between the first and second rounds.

The thought just occured to me, that maybe the Phillies are thinking REALLY LONG TERM.

I post this:

Suppose the Phillies have A) no intention of bringing Burrell back, B) no intention of bringing Moyer back unless he's inexpensive, C) no intention of signing anyone except a Value Village plaoon partner for Stairs/Jenkins, D) are going to hold on to Donald to inexpensively replace Feliz, and E) have raised ticket prices in 2009 ........................

all so they can stockpile the dough it's going to take to keep Hamels long term?

Just a thought.

I second what others are saying about Ibanez - a good player but not a good fit for many reason.

Also, I heard leslie giudel(sp?) report on TV this morning that Jason Donald is one of the most talked about prospects in the league at the winter meetings.

I really can't believe a monster few weeks in the AFL has made this kid that much of a trading chip. I guess his impressive Olympics helped a lot as well.

ol Jr. followed up the report saying that Donald would be seeing much more time at third base in the near future - does this maybe tell teams that we're fond of keeping him for in-house upgrades in the future and possibly make others raise their asking price a bit since it seems we're not willing to part with him so easily?

That's a pretty nice deal for a fat, decent hitting (although that bonus is lost in the AL) left-handed pitcher that's not named Babe Ruth.

Seriously though, paying over $22 million per year for a guy with that lack of conditioning is ridiculous. Maybe a personal trainer was a condition of the contract.

FWIW, Jason Donald was considered a decent (albeit, not top-tier) prospect prior to his monster AFL stint.

AWH: All the more reason to do what I've been saying all off-season so far. Lock up Hamels now before he gets closer to the open market.

It's a gamble because if he regresses some it would lower his value, but sometimes you need to move ahead of the curve and roll the dice.

Those sandwich picks really move the Phils in second round lower yet. We would of been 60 and after all the FA signings we can be lowered by another 4 or 5.

AHW: I was with you until the signing Hamels long term (I'd love to believe that but I doubt it happens)...most likely it will be "stockpiling dough until they can purchase a new yacht, the "S.S. WFC 2008"

Yeah, NEPP, you're probably right.

What was I thinking?

"Hamels will be worth more than Sabathia when he hits the open market."

I think you're being irrationally exuberant there, NEPP. Sabathia has averaged about 210 innings a season for 8 years. If Hamels stays healthy for the next three years, yes, he could top Sabathia when he hits the market (assuming the economy has recovered by then). But it's no sure thing.

The bigger problem for baseball is what the Yankees are doing here. In the past, teams were portrayed as stupid for bidding against themselves. In this case, the Yankees knew full well they were $60 million over the next offer and went for another $20 million anyway. What's the benefit? By driving up salaries, the Yankees ensure that they alone can afford the best players.

If the owners cared about this, they would seek to uncouple free agent salaries from the arbitration process. My fear is they don't care. A strong New York team, they believe, is good for ratings and therefore good for them all.

You were thinking like a fan...not a greedy ownership group.

Honestly, I think they'll try to lock up Hamels long-term. He's their best pitcher since Schilling and their best lefty since Lefty. He will win a Cy Young in the next 3 years...that's my prediction.

Let's all take a moment, think back to that Feliz single in Game 5 and appreciate that our team won the World Series. We Won The World Series! World Champions...World F*cking Champions!!!

Just read that last paragraph...does anyone else get chills?

****I think you're being irrationally exuberant there, NEPP***

You've got a good point. I should have phrased it as a prediction. It was my prediction that Cole will make more when he hits the market if only because he's 24 and already has a reputation as a big game pitcher.

NYPost, which had the CC story up first, says the Yanks are still interested in buying other starters, including Lowe.

The Yankees' new rotation is starting to take shape as they are also in serious negotiations with free-agent Derek Lowe. An agreement with Lowe appears likely to be finalized in coming days, as well. The sides were discussing a contract for four years and about $66 million late Tuesday.

SI.com

EF - Rotoworld reports that the only thing between the NYYs and Lowe is {Boras using} the Phillies {to drive up the price}.

{The parantheses are my inferences.}

Sad...but not unexpected.

If you're the Braves and Lowe signs with the Yankees, do you pull your previous offer to Burnett and completely lowball him at that point? I mean, there would be no other real competition for him money wise at that point.

I know a lot of opinions differ, but I don't see anything wrong with a 2 year deal for Moyer- He's no more or less likely than a younger pitcher to decline in that amount of time. Injuries are a risk to pitchers of all ages.

Bubba - But how much would you pay for those 2 years?

I'd pay 2 years, $14 million...;)

How about 16 wins + 16 million.
Seems like some symmetry to those numbers.

Just thinking out loud (and forgetting team imposed salary caps).

Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Howard
Werth
D. Young
DeRosa
Ruiz

Feliz
Jenkins/Stairs
Dobbs
Coste/Marson
Gnome?

Hamels
Myers
Pettitte
Blanton
Happ

Lidge
Madson
Romero
Durbin
Eyre
Condrey
{revolving door or FA VV reliever}

It ain't the 27 Yankees; it may not even be the 1978 Phillies. But it's a contender.


A lot of posters here have seen Happ pitch in the minors. I've only seen his major-league work, in which he has looked pretty poised for a young guy. Is it reasonable to think that he could do much the same job as Moyer if given his spot in the rotation? By which I mean that, as good as he was, Moyer seldom pitched shutout ball; he generally gave up a couple of runs and kept the team in the game. Is Happ capable of that, or do you think he'd be exposed by pitching in our unbalanced schedule?

I fully expect the necessary transactions to make the above possible, of course, to not happen. More likely, Junior will make "small splashes."

Jason, thanks for explaining the new changes. You've been working hard recently with more thread headers per day than during the season. The stove is hot and BL is stoking the flames. I saw on an ESPN crawl this morning that Junior said that the Phils have no interest in Manny. Since Junior lies a lot, does that mean Manny will be our starting LF on opening day?

LF - Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

Happ can not do what Moyer did last year and we can not acquire D. Young and Derosa without giving up Happ.

But I would be very happy with the team that Andy posted above. Might be Marquis rather than Happ in the rotation though.

Granted this is one guy's opinion, but someone just asked Jody Mac (who's got a good baseball brain) about a Donald for Delmon deal. He was horrified-wants no part of Delmon's attitude and thinks Donald COULD be an all star. He said Delmon's problems are more than the bat incident: he doesn't run out grounders at all.

I'd accept Marquis - but only if Chollie agrees to bat him ahead of Ruiz.

The Phillies could toss the same 2 year, $45 million deal the Dodgers had on the table for Manny and see what happens...there hasn't exactly been a ton of interest in the big fella and he's gotta salivate about hitting in CBP against weaker NL teams.

NEPP - Heck, they could even go $45.1 MM.

It would make for an interesting middle of the line-up.

Could you imagine?

Rollins
Werth
Utley
Manny
Howard
Victorino
Feliz/Dobbs/Donald
Ruiz/Marson

If Jaramillo and Kendrick end up being the two 'prospects' in this DeRosa deal, my head will explode.

Out of shock, that is.

CY: I was thinking more along the lines of Moyer's '07 season -- an ERA of about 4.50, kept the team in most games. Moyer of '08 was well above league average, which I wouldn't expect of any but the best rookie.

I'm not willing to give up anyone to get DeRosa, and I'm not at all sold on D. Young.

****If Jaramillo and Kendrick end up being the two 'prospects' in this DeRosa deal, my head will explode.****

I think we'd all be saddened by losing two premier prospects like that...not that Kendrick is really a prospect anymore.

NEPP - You forgot the quotes - we'd all be "saddened."

But, but, but I was serious.

MLBTR: Twins inquiring the Cubs about DeRosa. Could get the way of the Phils...

Oh.

Um...er...

My bad.

Getting into a bidding war with the Twins wouldn't be worth it...I assume the deal would be something along the lines of D. Young for Derosa and something...unless they're giving up prospects?

Nevermind, they'd want pitching in exchange for DeRosa as they'd be edging us out of the 3 way talks. Oh well. Its not worth fighting over and then overpaying for Mark Derosa.

Excuse me, but what's with all the DeRosa love? He's improved the last three years by playing full-time, but he wouldn't play full-time here, and his career OPS+ is 97. That's a replacement player. You ought to be able to get somebody like that for next to nothing.

On Delmon Young, how well do you think he'd fare with fans if he has a habit of not hustling? The WFC glow would wear off pretty quickly, IMHO.

Al - you would give up nothing at all to get Derosa? So you don't think he has a place at all on the phils?

I think he is a useful player and could hit into our lineup rather nicely.

I also love D. Young's potential. But that could be the fantasy baseball player in me coming through rather than anything based in reality.

Alby - What's your estimate of the value of Kyle Kendrick and Jason Jaramillo?

I hope Sabathia gets hurt tomorrow. Not because I don't like him. Not because I hate the Yankees. Just to show these owners / GM's that the kind of money being thrown around is ridiculous. No one needs $160 million when they're already millionaires. Call me naive...

The trade and FA rumors and speculation here is so much more interesting than the real deal when it does happen.
Great medium warm stove league stuff.

The Yankees could sign Sabathia, Lowe, and Manny and sacrifice their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2009 and it wouldn't affect them in the slightest.

Odds are that is what will happen too.

Alright, so let me throw this out there... when Lowe inevitably signs with the Yankees, what's our move?

Deal with disappoinment of being outbid and look for a 2nd tier guy to replace Moyer...or see if Moyer becomes reasonable in his demands.

Yo, new thread.

I bet the Yanks sign TWO of the following three: Lowe Burnett Sheets. And at this point it looks more like Lowe and Sheets, but if any of those two falls through, they'll surely swipe up burnett.

And as for the DYoung attitude problem, yes it is a risk. That is why he and Donald can even be mentioned in the same breath.

Without attitude problems, DYoung is probably the hottest trade chip in the league. A 23 yr old with blazing speed, great D, and a power/gap .300 hitter. But since he has the attitude thing going for him, thats your risk.

The risk with Jason Donald - he wont be able play 3rd in the ML, he wont be able to play 3B in AAA, he wont hit ML pitchnig well, he wont hit ML pitching period, he wont hit AAA pitching well, he wont hit AAA pitching period.

I'm taking the less risk. And if you get past the risk, the ceiling of Young is much higher than Donald. Oh yeah, and the Phils need a RH bat to play LF more than a middle infielder.

This could all be phantom hot stove rumors, but if not I think the Phils should jump on it.

Andy: Jaramillo seems like no prospect, so I'd give him up. Kendrick's value is pretty low right now, but I'm on record as thinking his best role is in the bullpen as a middle-inning ground-ball inducer. I would not trade him for DeRosa.

I'm sure DeRosa would do a fine job in a utility role. But so would many others, and we already have one guy in Bruntlett who, with Burrell gone, won't have to play every day in LF. Ideally, your backup shortstop sees very little action.

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