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Friday, December 12, 2008

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"2008 2nd half:

Ibanez .321ba 12hr 55rbi .380obp .921ops
Burrell .215ba 10hr 29rbi .313obp .725ops

Burrell's 2nd half sealed his fate."

This was one of the big things with Burrell, that second half was dreadful and they really couldn't risk more of that.

If you take that and couple it with Ibanez being the type of hitter that the Phillies have been missing, good average that can drive in runs more consistent, then I think it is a good move. Especially so for the regular season, it might be a step back in the postseason if they need the longball to make another run there.

But, with the Mets improving the Phillies needed to do something to address some of the reasons why their offense sputtered at times. This does that. It makes them less all or nothing.

where's mvptommyd when you need him?

Well, lots of good teams wanted the guy -- including the Angels, who saw him 18 times a year.

And obviously PtB is going to make a lot less $$ than he wanted -- I doubt any GM is going to hire him for more $$ than the Phils gave Ibanez to replace him in LF.

Ok, the video warmed me up somewhat to adding this lefty left fielder. My jury is still in the back room deliberating. The jury foreman has told the bailiff that they should have a decision by July.

wow... "he (burrell) wont even get close to the 3yr $30mil that ibanez got"

Really? he said it with such confidence too. gotta believe he knows what hes talking about, maybe the Phils were right to not give him ARb he wont even get 8mil/year while arb could have got him 16mil

Considering they have basically the same value as players right now, and Burrell is 5 years younger, if Burrell won't get the same deal as Ibanez, then this was royally stupid.

I think that the Phillies decided long ago to part ways with Pat Burrell, and have not considered the fact that the better baseball decision may have been to bring him back. Ruben Amaro is off to a bad start with his first major decision.

To Jason Weitzel: Thank you for posting something positive on this deal. We might as well get behind Ibanez and our World Fvcking Champion franchise as this is the move they made. Yeah, we might disagree with it but they think it will help win ballgames and they've obviously just brought home a WS Trophy so they might be somewhat good at their jobs.

Ibanez is a hard worker, a great clubhouse guy and a very talented hitter. Its mid December and we very well might still be getting a good RH bat so we might want to hold judgment until we see the final product come Spring Training and April.

Where's Campaign Cheer when you need it?

Jack: That seems to be the situation, but theres a good chance that Burrell demand's are so ridiculous that it wasnt worth the risk to wait around for him to come to his senses. And with other contenders supposedly after ibanez, they had to make their move.

Nice to see him handle the high fastball- thats a pitch a lot of lefties struggle with.

"considered by teammates to be the glue "

I bet we'll see some of that glue on defense and on the basepaths.

Raul does look about as slow as PtB rounding 1st base in that video - another guy who not only can't go 2nd to home, you have to worry if they can manage 2nd to 3rd.

Only way this move looks royally stupid is if Raul doesn't produce.

Agree with phaith, they couldn't wait around.

Re: 2010

I know I said I wouldn't talk about it, but I want to illustrate why it makes no sense to say things like, "Werth is gone."

Our contracted salaries for 2010 (as of today) are: Utley $15M, Rollins $7.5M, Lidge $11.5M, Ibanez $10M and Romero $4M. That's 5 contracted players at $48M.

We also have a number of arbitration players that year (assuming no extensions): Howard, Blanton, Durbin, Bruntlett, Hamels, Victorino, Dobbs, Paulino, and Condrey. If you assume they'll all be here, I guess you could put a price tag on these players at about $41M. It's an estimate, and I'd like to hear others.

The rest of the commitments are tenders. that puts us in 2010 at about $89M plus tendered contracts of maybe $5M to $10M at the most? We're still under $100M.

Are we saying we wouldn't have the money to sign Werth, a third baseman, a back of the rotation starter and a couple bullpen arms?

Perhaps Michael Taylor will be ready by 2010 and Werth leaving isn't the end of the world.

Just thinking out loud...against righties could you bat Ibanez 3rd and Utley 5th (when he comes back)?

Utley is still theoretically a superior hitter with a higher OBP...assuming the hip surgery recovery is good...I'd keep him in the 3 hole because of that.

I agree with NEPP, lets give this a chance to be a good move. There are obvious flaws (age, left-handedness), but it seems that everyone who has seen the guy play raves about him. Plus while I (like most on here) am worried about facing LHPs, it will be pretty fun to watch this lineup mash against RH starters when Charlie gets Dobbs in at 3B.

Here's a crazy idea lineup wise...Bat Utley in the 4 spot and move Howard up to the 3 hole. This would help Howard as he'd be less likely to be walked with our best hitter behind him in Utley...and Howard would get to bat with Vic and Rollins on base in front of him...hopefully negating the shift a bit more with their speed and ability to steal bases.

TK: Against righties, why wouldn't you just bat Ibanez 5th and leave Chase in his #3 hole? Chase has a better OBP, and Ibanez is known as an RBI guy, so you'd want him hitting with Utley and Howard on base, against a righty.

I'm thinking Utley-Howard-Ibanez wouldn't be terrible against right-handed starters. Utley and Ibanez can hit lefties, so a loogy would only nullify Howard, and thats unavoidable. That trio would still face right-handers for the majority of their at-bats.

Against right-handed pitching, this lineup could be devastating:

1-Rollins
2-Victorino
3-Utley
4-Howard
5-Ibanez
6-Werth
7-Dobbs
8-catcher

baxter: Ibanez can't hit lefties. Look at his numbers against lefties from 2007 and 2006: .650 and .661.

Another nice aspect of this signing is that a good player -- as opposed to the usual left-over riffraff -- actually wanted to be a part of the Phillies.

embedded video! did anyone else notice one of burrells jacks in that video comes off of joe blanton? someone at espn was feeling clever.

"Utley and Ibanez can hit lefties"

?!?!?!?!

What is Ibanez career OPS versus LHP?????

(Hint: .012 less than Bruntlett.)

Yanks sign Burnett. What now for the Braves?

Good move, good guy. Can't hurt to bring in a long-time veteran who can hit, be a leader, and who isn't constantly looking in the stands for hot women. He'll be great for the clubhouse.

Supposedly they were looking at Wolfie and someone else...maybe it was Garland? It was on MLBTradeRumors.

My bet is the Yanks will go get Lowe now as well...

Everyone's favorite Keith Law absolutely destroyed the signing. "Signing Ibanez an absurd move by Phillies"

Brian G: In that case, I'm starting to like the move!

'Bout time someone posted something positive about this move. Ibanez can flat out hit... Bat him 6th and watch the Phillies terrorize pitchers up and down the lineup... Burrell gave the pitcher a break right in the middle of the lineup... I laugh at all the 'know it alls' that guaranteed that Burrell would command at least 40mil over 3 years. LOL.

Braves dodged a bullet. Burnett = Carl Pavano.

Keith Law writes:

"Raul Ibanez will turn 37 during the first year of his three-year deal with the Phillies and finish it at the age of 39. He's very similar to the player he's replacing, Pat Burrell. But Ibanez is four years older, a far worse defensive player, and outside of a blip in 2008 does not hit left-handed pitching. (His OPS against left-handers was .650 in 2007 and .661 in 2006.)"

What is the world coming to when Keith Law sounds like clout???

I actually like Keith Law. Right about Kendrick, right about Rowand, right about a lot of things.

Phils working on Moyer.

Carson will now embed this link properly: (or not, whatever)

http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/hot_stove/posts/31961

Rob Neyer quotes Beerleaguer in his write-up of the Ibanez signing and then adds this:

"But regardless of what the people who run the Phillies might think over these next few years, the bottom line is this: They've just committed to spending $30 million on a player who won't help them win a great number of games."

mikes77: To be honest, I think Burrell will sign for less than Ibanez. And he will be a much better deal. He's younger, as good a hitter, as good a defender, and doesn't cost a draft pick. For all the "We don't want a #5 hitter that walks, we want one that drives in runs", Burrell hits for much more power than Ibanez, which, you know, helps a #5 hitter.

Tray: He thinks Lou Marson hits too many groundballs, so he's a terrible analyst.

I'll ask again...

Any interest in Marcus Thames, RH OF with the Tigers, if Detroit non-tenders him? Bad OBP, but he can slug. He had an OPS+ of 108 last year despite having a Feliz-like OBP of .292.

With that opposite field stroke, he will hit a ton of HR's in CBP. If he can drive the ball out of Seattle's pitching friendly park, wait til he sees the Bank. Howard will have some comp, for most opposite field HR's in the league, next year.

Ibanez is a very good, productive hitter. I don't think anyone is disputing that. And, he is a solid upgrade over Burrell. But, the lack of right handed hitting (and very little of it on the bench either), could doom this team. The lack of lefty hitters, doomed the Cubs in the playoffs last year and the reverse, could doom the Phils.

Ibanez is a big-time run producer, though. Can he do it, on a good team and big market though, instead of being in obscurity in Seattle? We shall see.

curt: You do know that the Angels are also pursuing Burrell right? Or would you prefer to ignore that fact?

I will miss Pat. He was doomed from day 1 if he wasn't goiong to be the best player in Phillies history, which is what the FO touted him to be. I always rooted the hardest for him, I just wanted him to be loved the way he seemed to love this city (refuseing to be traded and stating that he wanted to stay here). His first at bat here there will be a very big ovation (rightfully deserved) then if he has a game winning hit I'll BOO the S%!t out of him. The only thing that I might not do is start the "you suck (whoever is in LF) chant. I don't think I could do it to him.

Now I will turn my positive thoughts and enegy to Chooch.

clout - no idea. And your point?

If Ibanez power stroke maintains his power stroke, then it isn't a bad signing. Big if.

More likely the Phils are left with an albatross of a contract that hamstrings them in 2010 and beyond. Plus they had to give up a first round pick.

Jack: I see you're still lying about my posts on Lidge from last offseason, so I'll clarify for 100th time:

I preferred that Myers stay at closer with Lidge as setup and the Phils get an SP like Kuroda instead of jerking Myers back into the rotation. Lidge was coming off 2 straight bad years in which he'd lost the closer job, but had pitched consistently well as setup. I thought it was high risk.

You, on the other hand, said Kuroda wouldn't be much of an asset that Myers as an SP would have a better year, blah, blah blah.

How did that turn out?

curt: Since you're using the Angels pursuit of Ibanez as a reason this was a brilliant signing by the Phillies, the fact they're interested in Burrell as well must mean they like him too, no? In other words, as usual, your argument doesn't hold water.

I find it hard to believe Ibanez could be a worse defender than Burrell. Ibanez is old though and without steroids how long will he last?

Can we please top the following nonsense:

1. Ibanez can hit LHP. He can't.

2. Ibanez is suddenly going to hit 30 HRs+ now that he plays in CBP. We heard the same nonsense last year with Feliz. If he hits 20-25 HRs, that's fine.

3. Ibanez is any kind of upgrade defensively from Burrell. He sucks and if he doesn't hit for average and power, the Phils are going to look like fools for signing him.

My bet is that Ibanez gives the Phils a solid 2009 if he isn't hurt but isn't worth his contract in 2010 or 2011.

I've posted this before, but I'll do it again for all you "positive spin" advocates:


SIDEWAYS. This is a sideways move, at best.


Is that being negative, or is it being realistic?

RH power bat is what they needed.

Even Chollie said so.


We now see from this signing how few good RH power bats actually are/were available, and how valuable they are.

The good ones, unless they're all about themselves (Manny), get locked up by their teams when they can.


It will be interesting to see what MRamirez is offered.

IMO, it's not just "the economy" with him. GMs are probably scared to death to give him the contract he wants because he would then be guaranteed his money and could behave any way he chooses.

It would be ironic if he doesn't get more than the $40MM total that the two option years in his contract represented.

Clout, it sounds like you were both way off, but that you were arguably farther off.

Ibanez (and Burrell) for that matter are more valuable in the AL for the simple fact that they can DH. Both guy are solid hitters yet they stink in the filed. Either guy though is fine as a full-time DH next year or likely in 2010.

MG, I poted that a couple of threads ago.

In 3 years BeerLeaguers could be discussing this contract in the same way that Adam Eaton's contract is now viewed.

clout -- My words: "Well, lots of good teams wanted the guy -- including the Angels, who saw him 18 times a year."

It was a comment immediately after JW's "positive spin "video. I'm sure you can explain what it has to do with Burrell. Get a grip, man. As usual, you're seeing what you want to see, not what is actually written.


Tray: Well, it was a high risk that paid off handsomely. On the other hand, we'll never know how Myers would've fared had he remained the closer.

MG: Maybe we'll deal Ibanez next year since he doesn't have a FNTC ;-)

AWH: The available RH corner OFs market was very slim. It was basically Manny, PtB and Juan Rivera.

Ibanez is average at best against LHP. That is what I meant but he doesn't have much power and his other numbers aren't great.

Ron Mexico,

I thought you were doing time.

Ibanez is a real head scratcher. Will be interesting to see if Tim Kjkrjaourian is right about Burrell's value on the market.

AWH - I think you hit it right on the head. Sideways (which is ok) given that is team is generally solid.

Issue is that I dont' see the pitching being as good again if they just resign Moyer. It was the bullpen (and to a lesser degree) the starting rotation that really was the strength of this team last year.

Let's see, denny b. predicts lots of HRs from Ibanez because he was held down by roomy Safeco. Thus he must've hit a ton of HRs on the road, in smaller ballparks where his hidden power could be unleashed, no?

OOooops! Ibanez hit 14 HR in 351 ABs at Safeco and 9 in 356 ABs on the road.

Time for the excuse makers to come up with a new explanation!

What happened to Chuck James that he went from 11-10 with a 100 ERA+ in his first full season of a starter in 2007... to being non-tendered this offseason. Obviously the Braves saw little upside to his bad 2008 (2-5 in 7 starts with a 47 ERA+ and a 1.888 WHIP).

clout: I checked the game log. Every Ibanez road game was in San Diego.

If Kurkijan is right that Burrell gets nowhere near what Ibanez got (say 2 yrs at $16M), then this signing is even dumber in retrospect. Phils paid more and have another year of an older, left-handed version of Burrell.

MG: Call me crazy... but I think that, as a whole, the bullpen could be better next year. I think the Chan Ho Park signing will be a nice upgrade (a real sleeper move) which will keep Durbin fresher. I also think that Madson will settle into that 8th inning role that was largely up in the air after Gordon went down. And I think that a full-year of Scott Eyre is an upgrade and helps us use Romero better.

AWH - I highly doubt we will be discussing it like Eaton. Eaton was generally been horrendous during his tenure and gave the Phils almost no value in return.

Question is does Ibanez stay healthy and maintain his power stroke enough to justify the contract but I highly doubt we will view Ibanez like Eaton (arguably one of the worst contracts in franchise history).

CJ - And if . . . It is much more likely that the Phils have some injuries in their bullpen this year and that Durbin, Lidge, and Romero revert back to more of their career norms.

Phils still likely to have a good pen but I it will be pretty hard to duplicate this year's performance. The bullpen was really was the story of 2008. Everything (and I mean everything) fell into place with the Phils' pen in 2008 after the quagmire of 2007.

"Ibanez is a very good, productive hitter. I don't think anyone is disputing that. And, he is a solid upgrade over Burrell. But, the lack of right handed hitting (and very little of it on the bench either), could doom this team. The lack of lefty hitters, doomed the Cubs in the playoffs last year and the reverse, could doom the Phils."


dennyb, I agrre with everything in this post except one sentence:

"And, he is a solid upgrade over Burrell."


Pardon me, but I just don't see it.

Yes, he hits for higher average, but he's worse defensively because he's just as slow and has no arm. PB is one of the better throwing LF in the game. Hard to quantify, but that alone will probably add up to a couple of more runs allowed. SLG% and OPS vs LHP? Not an upgrade - not even close.

The signing of Ibanez may well raise the probability of the Mets winning even more games head-to-head next season, especially if the re-sign OPerez. In 18 games the Phillies may see him and Santana at least 6 times, maybe more.

What will this lineup do against them?

With Ibanez in the fold and Moyer likely resigned, I hope the Phils aren't done but I have a feeling they will only be doing very minor tinkering. Still think that getting some insurance for Utley/Feliz is really important. Have to wait and see.

Looks like the Phils roster for next Opening Day will be pretty much set by BAP day (Dec. 17).

Only drama to really play out will be the arbitration hearings.

MG, what I mean is it will enter into the "dead money" "sunk cost" arena of discussion.

"If Kurkijan is right that Burrell gets nowhere near what Ibanez got (say 2 yrs at $16M), then this signing is even dumber in retrospect. Phils paid more and have another year of an older, left-handed version of Burrell."

This is head-scratching. Kurkijan, who's a bit of a dork (a la "Cy Young had the third best screwball among right handed pitchers who played in two leagues--of all time.") and a dimbulb, doesn't seem to realize the significance of what he's saying.

I bet Burrell gets his 3 yrs for around or slightly less than what Ibanez got.

"Issue is that I dont' see the pitching being as good again if they just resign Moyer. "


MG, we agree.

Because I do not expect the BP to be as good, the SP MUST be better.

Hamels - should be fine

Myers - do you know what you're going to get?

Blanton - should be fine

Moyer - expect a dropoff, and praise God for the miracle granted if he doesn't

#5: This may be the key to the season


They are taking a big risk in that I believe they expect "good" Myers for the whole season. I'm not sure they can count on that, and I'm hoping "good" Myers and not "bad" Brett shows up all year.

MG: Well, we had bullpen injuries last year and were still amazing. It happens and you deal with them. I don't think it makes much sense to use that in a prediction. And... how much longer are we going to wait for JC Romero to "revert?"

AWH: Well... if you consider a full year of Blanton as an upgrade over Eaton (I do) and a full year of Happ as an upgrade over Kendrick (I do) then there are already starting rotation upgrades. I also believe Myers will be closer to his second half performance (and his performance in 2005 and 2006) than his first half performance. Even if Moyer regresses, I could easily argue the 2009 rotation is superior to the 2008 rotation.

Chris Capuano was non-tendered today. In 2005, he was 18-12 with an ERA+ of 107. In 2006, his ERA+ improved to 113 and he was an All-Star. In 2007, he struggled to a 5-12 record and an 88 ERA+. Capuano missed 2008 with Tommy John surgery.

AWH: I don't like the signing either. But it's probably a bit of hyperbole to say we'll be talking about it like the Eaton contract. Eaton had never done anything to deserve such a rich contract in the first place, and he was a disaster from Day 1. Ibanez has been a good player over his career and is likely to put up decent numbers for at least the first year. A better analogy would be the Tom Gordon contract.

Since we all agree that PtB is better on defense, and better on offense, and younger, than our new LFer, if he gets much less than Ibanez did he should fire his agent and sue to get out of the union.

CJ: I'm with you on Capuano. He'd be a worthwhile low-risk gamble.

BAP: I'd try to get Capuano and, if the Tigers non-tender him, Marcus Thames.

BAP: Your comparison to the Gordon contract is on the mark.

Yes, I like Marcus Thames as a RH bat off the bench or even as a platoon type guy but we don't have a platoon spot for him. Still, I like his bat against leftys.

I still say if we end up signing Hamels or Howard long term this off-season we can look at this off-season as possibly holding sway.

Perhaps the Phillies feel their team is good enough to pretty much stay the same. I think Ruiz will have an uptick this year in stats building off his post-season stats. Feliz is what he is. Hopefully Rollins plays better all year long and Werth keeps doing what he is doing.

This might sound crazy, but what about betting Victorino 5th and Ibanez 6th? I mean Howard would walk a lot, but Victorino gets big hits and could give him some protection and then you'd get some speed on the bases in front of Ibanez?

I am just really uncomfortable with Utley, Howard and Ibanez back-to-back. We'll see too many lefties and loogeys. Also, if Ibanez bats 6th then a team might use a loogey on Ibanez or on the Chase/Howard combo leaving them vulnerable down the line.

I also think for whatever reason that Victorino is better down the order rather than #2. He just always seems more production down in the order.

How the hell did Thames hit 25 HRs in 316 ABs last year? or 26 in 348 ABs in 06?

Man this guy has a TON of power.

Yeah, I've been pushing Vic in the 5 hole all day Len. It might work as he gets on base a lot and would give Ibanez someone to knock in.

In a bit of a head-scratcher, Tim Redding was non-tendered. Hopefully he signs with an American League team or, at the very least, a team outside of our division.

Thames career HR rate: 1 every 14.6 ABs. Ashame he cant take a walk to save his life.

Tim "Cy Young" Redding?!? Lets snatch him up right now to prevent anyone else from getting him and hurting us.

bap, after further thought, I agree. The Gordon contract is a better ananlogy.

Unless, of course, Ibanez gets hurt right out of the box. Then it could be like the Pavano contract.

Mets just traded Shoenweis for some guy Robertson on the Astros.

Apparent salary dump for a player to be signed soon?

Smokin blunts as the blunt-man do, I thought I saw that Arthur Rhodes got four millie?!

Seriously, at least the fish have a business model set up to suck up luxury tax income. The Reds ... they're just hiiiiiigh.

"Losing" schoeneweis can only help them.

So just how pissed are the Mets and Minaya that we won the WS? I mean they are really going all out and fixing every weakness.

Whoops, this Robertson guy was on the Dbacks, part of the Haren trade. He probably won't see CitiField next year.

There was no way Omar could bring back Shoenweis thought most Met fans would have liked to get more value back (Jason Marquis) for a guy who supposedly can get Lefties out.

The Mets still don't have a rotation

Santana
Pelfrey
Maine
?
?

So they're clearly not finished buying pieces.

BAP - I'd say even a comparison to the Gordon contact is over the top. Ibanez has a solid history, with no signs of decline. Even if Ibanez were to decline slightly over the 2nd and 3rd years of his contract, it wouldn't be analogous to Flash's situation.

There is no reason to presume that he will decline significantly over the last two years of his contract. It might happen, but I don't see any reason to predict that it will happen.

You mean other than the fact that most players decline significantly in their late 30's?

"Unless, of course, Ibanez gets hurt right out of the box. Then it could be like the Pavano contract."

Good point. And maybe he'll pass the physical even though he's injured - making it like the Garcia signing.

Sheece.

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