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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

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He's gotta be better than Vic Darensbourg.

Great, what a signing to counter Putz and K-Rod. What about Cruz? What about Lowe? Oh yeah, the Mets might get Lowe now. We will have to face facts that the Mets will enter 2009 a much better team. Yeah, I know championships aren't won in the offseason. We still have a great core of young, exciting players entering their primes, but it sure would be nice if the Phillies took some of their increased revenue and added Lowe, especially with Myers coming off the books after this season. Then we can move Happ for a quality 4th outfielder and let Carassco develop and take Myers' spot after this season.

Of course, if they take care of business and avoid arbitration by signing some of the core like Hamels, Victorino, Werth (we know they won't with Howard) to contracts buying out some free agency years then that could be a major positive. Am I the only one concerned that J-Roll is a free agent in two years?

Woohoo!

Oh and from the last thread, so far the Yankees look like their payroll will be lower in 09 than in 08. They had around $88 million come off the books and they haven't matched that yet even with the signings of Sabathia, Burnett, & Texeira.

The Yankees just overpaid for three of the most overrated players in baseball. what else is new?

Len39: I believe you are, considering J-Roll is a free agent in three years, not two.

Am I alone in thinking that Teixiera is a very good but not elite player who probably is being brutally overpaid at $22.5 million a year?

I mean his best OPS+ was 151 and I'm sorry but being a gold glover at 1B is about as impressive as being valedictorian of a class of 12 people. Teams don't pay 1B for their defense...just ask Rico Brogna.

Don't get me wrong, Teixeira has a lot of upsides, he's a switchhitter, is good against both leftys and rightys and he is a good defender but he's not an elite game-changing guy like an ARod or even a Ryan Howard (when he's on).

I'd take a guy like Utley over him in a heartbeat.

I honestly hope JRoll resigns in 3 years and plays a great defensive SS into his late 30's and then retires gracefully, gets his plaque on the Phillies wall of fame in CF and then gets a big bronze statue outside of CBP as a key member of the team for 15+ years.

But that's just me. I can't think of anything bad about Jroll whatsoever...though not to the extent of St. Utley.

Considering he's 28 years old and three years from free agency, 6 years/$120 million would be a very reasonable offer to Ryan Howard. If Lidge is worth 14.5, Howard is worth 20. Get it done Reuben. Ryno would be 34 at the end of that deal.

I bet the Yankees/Red Sox/Angels/Dodgers would pay $30m per for Howard on the open market. Thats with 3 years of inflation. $20m/year would be very reasonable. We aren't a small market team by any means.

lvironpigs.wordpress.com

go iron pigs

FWIW, Howard (through his agent) stated that last spring Miguel Cabrera's 8 year, $152.3 million deal would be a starting point for any long-term deal for him. He feels that he is a gamechanging player and he deserves to be paid as such. In his defense, he's won Rookie of the Year, an MVP, and finished 5th in the MVP in 07 and 2nd in 08. He's also the most prolific slugger in the game right now.

Of course, he's brutal bad with the glove and he strikes out alot but he ignores those flaws. I agree that Howard at 6 years, 120 is very "fair" but I highly doubt that he'd take it...especially considering what Teixeira just got and a quick comparison of their stats.

why why why are the phillies so penny wise and pound foolish? - especially when it comes to pitching - always go for the scrap heap players...

they're even trying to get lowe... they are dunces on this one... they have the resources to do it, but they are letting their most hated rival get the best sp remaining on the market... WHY???

[ARE]they're even trying to get lowe.

So cholly, you realize that we just won a World Series with those "scrapheap" players like Werth, Dobbs, Moyer, Victorino, etc.

Overpaying for Derek Lowe will not guarantee a repeat of 2008.

The Phillies aren't gonna sign Lowe or even attempt to block the Mets from doing so. They've already maxed out their self-imposed salary cap with the signings of Ibanez, Moyer, and Park. I can't argue with their philosophy of surrounding a home-grown core of players with scrapheap signings...its worked pretty damn well in the Gillick and now Amaro eras.

as far as scrap heap guys, i wasn't talkin' about the 2008 phils, but (as an examplea) bout this pitching signing the phils just made.

i'm just sayin that you can't just sit there nearly unchanged, while other teams ( esp direct rivals are getting better ( especially pitching wise )

Its a minor league deal for more reliever depth at the AAA level. Its hardly a big deal or even a bad one for that matter. Having another decent arm with MLB experience is not a bad thing. And they did spend some okay money on Ibanez, Moyer, & Park. Granted I wish they'd open the purse strings for another bigger name but that's not their philosophy. Other than Thome, the Phillies have never really been players on that stage. Right now I'm gonna keep drinking the red koolaid and assume they're saving this money to try and resign Madson & Werth and lock up Hamels and/or Howard long-term. Till they prove me wrong I'm not gonna criticize a gameplan that just won us a World Series.

NEPP-
I'm with you on Tex. He does a lot of things well, but $22.5m is an awful lot for a guy who's not a "game changer". He won't contend for a triple crown, win an MVP award or carry his team down the stretch. The Rangers and Braves both sucked with him and he didn't make the Angels better. Tex's a very good player, but you'd expect a $20 million dollar player to occasionally carry an offense, like A-Rod, Howard, Pujols, Vlad, Holliday or Manny.

He's an elite defender, but he's already in his 30s, and range is often the first thing to go. In 4 years, Tex will still be a smooth fielder, but no longer the best, and his bat does not justify $22.5/year.

Ask yourself this, would you rather have Ryan Howard or Mark Teixeira? Personally, I'd take the big man myself but then I'm weird. As frustrating as he is sometimes, when he gets hot he's one of the most dominating forces in the game.

Howard would get more than Tex on the open market, but considering he's 3 years from free agency, I think 6y/$120 is about right.

I think its fair...I also think he'd never take it as he'd probably think he'd make more through arbitration through the next 3 seasons plus signing a long-term deal...if he stays healthy and productive.

I think every baseball fan not posting on beerleaguer would take Howard over Teixiera. Tex is a very good all-around player, but Howard is the greatest power hitter of his generation. Howard is clearly a rarer, more special player. Howard could be in the top 3 in MVP voting for the better part of the next decade, while Teixiera probably won't make that list a single time.

Stats of the day:

Carlos Carrasco has only allowed 16 HRs in 198 1/3 innings pitched between AA, AAA, & the VWL.

...and even more impressive is his improvement in K/BB from 07 to 08:

K/BB in O7 - 1.07 (At AA, not A...Clearwater not included in that number)

K/BB in 08 - 2.90 (200 K & 69 BB in 198 1/3 innings)

"The Yankees just overpaid for three of the most overrated players in baseball. what else is new?"

Let's separate wishful thinking from reality. ALL signings carry an element of risk -- especially pitchers. Burnett has an injury history & Sabathia has logged a lot of innings at a very young age. But none of these guys is remotely overrated. Sabathia has been the best pitcher in baseball the last 2 years; Burnett has been a well above average starter for a long time; and Teixeira is one of the 10 best players in baseball, if not one of the 5 best.

As clout might say, only on Beerleaguer could people go ga-ga about a pitcher with a 3-year ERA of 7.38, while opining that CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira are insignificant acquisitions.

Um, not to be contrary but Sabathia IS NOT the best pitcher in baseball over the past 2 seasons...hell he's probably not even in the Top 5. He was by far the best available starter but that's because all the other elite pitchers are already locked up in long term deals. Burnett has only pitched over 200 innings 2 times in his past 6 seasons. How is that worth what he's getting paid now?

And Teixeira is the recipient of being the best position player in a very weak free agent market. As I said earlier, he's a very good but not elite player. Not a game changer by any means.

Still, overall, if money is no factor, they were all good signings that will help the Yankees in 09 and beyond most likely...though perhaps not as much as they think. They have alot of aging players who aren't gonna get any better and they have no youth at all outside of Joba.

baxter: Every OBJECTIVE fan would take Teixeira over Howard, without having to give the matter more than 3 seconds of thought. Howard hits about 10 to 12 more homeruns per year. In literally every other facet of the game, Teixeira is vastly superior.

Sabathia is great, but I wouldn't give any pitcher a 7 year deal, especially not an overworked 300 pounder. Tex wouldn't be a top 5 player on the Phillies, let alone all of baseball. Burnett pitched well last year, but he'll get hurt the way he always does. I bet the Yankees get about 1/2 the production they're paying for, which is about average for them.

Ask any Yankees fan if they'd trade Teixiera for Howard right now. They'd do it in a heartbeat. I just asked a couple, and they said they'd throw in prospects. Really- ask any Yankees fan. Ryan Howard is a top 5 offensive player, without a doubt. He had a bad year.

Howard would be smart to take a 6 year 120 mil contract. Nobody can guarantee health. And his hitting has gotten progressively worse each season. Even his fielding seems to have gotten worse, although that's tough to tell.

In three years, what teams are going to pony up 25-30 mil per for a one dimensional player who can't hit lefties?

If Howard shows up 15 lbs lighter and stops pulling off the ball (especially against lefties) then he'll likely get the big money he seeks. But this declining version of Howard we've been watching will soon be Dave Kingman the Second and he'll be glad he took the money.

His arbitration is going to be so wildly out of control, I don't even see us being able to get much in return for him in a trade after this coming season. Which teams are going to line up to overpay Ryno while giving up their top 2-3 prospects for the privilege.

And if we keep up with arbitration and offer it again in 2012 to try to get draft picks, we may be in a situation like with Burrell. Think about what would have happened if we'd offered a declining Burrell arb. We'd be forced to pay him 14-16 mil for a season in which he'll be lucky to get 10 mil on the open market.

All clout did was basically write what I did 4 days ago and he gets the credit..Not fair.

BAP: Here's my problem with your argument about Selig stepping in.

Firstly, I agree the Yankees spend a lot of money. However, they also bring in a ton of money. They have an extra outlet most teams don't have, and the Yankees do pay their luxury tax every year which is required of them.

However, the amount they spend is relative to the amount they bring in. Guys like those who own the Marlins pocket a bunch of that cash and then sell off every year and cry poverty. They don't spend in relation to what they bring in revenue wise.

A salary cap isn't the answer because that doesn't necessarily trickle down. Also, you cna always work around the salary cap. You keep using the NBA as an example- they let teams go over the salary cap as long as they pay a luxury tax. Sound familiar?

That's why I say they need to make a floor on spending. A team must spend a certain amount of their revenue back on the team instead of just pocketing it.

Also, and the major point here- the Yankees dropped ~84 million off their books this year. They are only adding ~62 million. So their payroll will be less this coming season.

Well, the one team that MIGHT have traded for him just locked up their 1B situation for the next 8 seasons...kinda limits the market when they're out of the running.

Hmm, offering Burrell arbitration? Well we either would have had the 1 year stopgap until Taylor could be ready and/or 2 draft picks in compensation for him going somewhere else...instead of figuring out where to play a aging 39 year old Ibanez in 3 seasons when he likely won't be able to play in LF.

That's the most pessimistic view of the sitaution though.

NEPP: He has won 36 games and had ERA+ of 143 and 162 during the past 2 years. You're telling me there have been 5 better pitchers in the majors over the last 2 years? Name just 1.

As for Texeira not being an elite player . . . that's just not true. He doesn't promote himself, but his year-to-year numbers are better than anyone in baseball except A-Rod, Pujols, Berkman, Vlad, Manny, and Chipper and, except for Pujols, all of those guys are at least 32 yeas old whereas Teixeira is only 28.

He'd be smart to take a 6 year 120 mil contract. Nobody can guarantee health. And his hitting has gotten progressively worse each season. Even his fielding seems to have gotten worse, although that's tough to tell.

In three years, what teams are going to pony up 30 mil per for a one dimensional player who can't hit lefties?

If Howard shows up 15 lbs lighter and stops pulling off the ball (especially against lefties) then he'll likely get the big money he seeks. But this declining version of Howard we've been watching will soon be Dave Kingman the Second and he'll be glad he took the money.

His arbitration is going to be so wildly out of control, I don't even see us being able to get much in return for him in a trade after this coming season. Which teams are going to line up to overpay Ryno while giving up their top 2-3 prospects for the privilege.

And if we keep up with arbitration and offer it again in 2012 to try to get draft picks, we may be in a situation like with Burrell. Think about what would have happened if we'd offered a declining Burrell arb. We'd be forced to pay him 14-16 mil for a season in which he'll be lucky to get 10 mil on the open market.

Sorry for the double post

After the Yankees sign Pettitte to a $10 million deal and pick up some other "minor" pieces, they'll probably break even with their 08 number for payroll...so what's the big deal?

Sabathia is an overweight pitcher who has crumbled under the pressure of big games so far in his career as Shane Victorino can easily tell us. He's gonna HATE playing in New York. And he'll likely opt out in 3 years anyway...or get locked up for even longer. That's their best case scenario that assumes he doesn't breakdown in the next 3 years and Pavano his way through $161 million in the Yankees training room.

Well, to my disappointment we got the Geezer rather than Lowe. I hope Geezer makes Jr. look smart, but this team wasn't so overpowering that it can afford to simply stand pat.

****NEPP: He has won 36 games and had ERA+ of 143 and 162 during the past 2 years. You're telling me there have been 5 better pitchers in the majors over the last 2 years? Name just 1.****

What are his numbers in the playoffs?

Oh wait.

Ok last post . . .

Truth: I agree with you about a salary floor, although I also think it should be accompanied by a cap. And, upon further reflection, I suppose if the Yankees have shed $82M in payroll, it's hard to argue that what they're doing calls for intervention by the commissioner. I do, however, think it's ridiculous when the Yankees & Mets go out and sign impact players and everyone just dismisses these signings as if they have no relationship to fielding a winning team.

baxter: I agree with you that there are some reasons to be concerned about Sabathia's long-term viability. I wouldn't have given him a 7-year deal either. I'm not sure I'd give ANY pitcher a 7-year deal. But regardless whether or not the deal is fiscally prudent, there's no denying that it makes the Yankees a way better team for 2009.

And I'd take Johan Santana over him any day of the week...or even Hamels who at least comes up big in pressure situations.

I'd also take guys like Beckett or Halladay or Peavy over him too if I were gonna build a team...as well as Lincecum or even Brandon Webb/Dan Haren. I'm feel much more comfortable paying one of those guys that money than CC Sabathia.

BAP: Fair enough- I just think a floor actually makes a team spend money. A cap doesn't necessarily do that.

Here's a start: You must spend at least 10% more than you get in revenue sharing.

For example:

Marlins in 2006

$14.0 million payroll paid out
$31 million in revenue sharing received.

Travesty...absolute travesty.

wow. I really can't believe people here think Howard is a top five position player. even if you pretend defense is a nonfactor (hint: it's not), he is absolutely not in the top five in baseball.

and just to head off the inevitable response: the fact that he has a World Series ring doesn't put him in the top five. unless you think it makes Pedro Feliz and Geoff Jenkins elite players too.

i said top 5 offensive player

well, it sure is a good thing that the NL is introducing the designated hitter next year.

Truth: You did indeed call for Majewski before the Phillies did it. Tip o' the clout cap to you.

NEPP: Let me get this straight: How a pitcher pitches in the post-season is a better measure of his value than how he pitches in the regular season? Are you serious?

I want a "tip o' the clout cap," too, so I'm predicting that before training camp breaks, the Phils will pick up at least one more marginal player from either the minor leagues, waiver wire or "too old to move" list.

b-a-p:

If the Phils had suddenly freed up $82 MM in payroll, what would you have wanted them to do with it?

I would have wanted Sabathia, Lowe and either Teixeira, who would have played LF, or Manny Ramirez.

I do not they are behaving all that irrationally given they have the money, they're moving into a new stadium and they missed the playoffs for the first time in 14 years or so.

It may, indeed, be a travesty that big market teams can buy out the best established players. But it is reality. (It may have been that way for a long time. How did the Phils lose Nap Lajoie, for instance?)

Its under the radar moves like this that gave you guys the best pen in baseball. May as well see how it pans out, since theres zero risk in his acquisition

Whilst looking up stats for a rebuttal to BAP's claim that there was no pitcher better than the rotund C.C. Sabathia over the last two years (which I was unable to do, btw), I discovered a very funny thing on Johan Santana's page on Baseball-Reference.com. Check out who his sponsor is here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/santajo02.shtml.

Also, I don't know that I would put Mark Teixeira in my top 5 players in the game...but he's definitely top 15. Having said that, I still think the Yankees overpaid for his services. Not vastly overpaid, mind you, but definitely more than he was worth (although not necessarily more than the market required...like they did with C.C. Sabathia).

Andy: Here's a good, non-risky prediction...the Phillies will acquire a marginal to slightly-better-than-marginal right-handed bat to add to their bench before the start of the season. I'm thinking an Aaron Miles (switch-hitter...bonus) or a Gabe Kapler (former minor-league manager...double bonus) type of guy.

Wow!

In the past, clout has never yet engaged in an exchange of opinions with me without distorting what I said on the topic in debate.

Now he's moved on to claiming I said things on issues about which I haven't even made one post.

For example, from a previous thread:

"I was in a minority and in an even smaller minority in saying if the Phils made the playoffs it would be as division winners, not Wild Card, which flipper said was ridiculous."

Never even posted on the topic, clout. I guess you're so pathetically insecure that you need to fabricate some context so you can tell us what a genius you were for being right about one out of the thousands of posts you've made at Beerleaguer. Congratulations.

Now please stop obsessing about me, and stop lying about me like a weasel. Thanks.

Its time we form teams and play each other in baseball trivia contests.

MYP Tommy D~

To comment from the last thread, if the Mets get Lowe after Putz and K-Rod, IMO they will have done a lot more to make the playoffs than the Phils did this off-season. I would take the Mets overall starting rotation if they added Lowe over the Phils rotation.

The Phils continie to make "little puddles"
instead of "big splases" with potential real impact players, and this philosophy will come back to haunt them.

And yes I agree with you, this is still Gillick's team. That's very obvious. And while his track record proves he surely knows what he's doing, right now this team is not as good as the one that won it all and the Mets are clearly better than they were. And so are the Yanks. That's my point.

If you are waiting for the Phils to make an impact move or to sign Howard long-term, don't hold your breath. I believe thay will sign Hamels long-term, but the big fellow will walk away when the time comes and will be replaced by a less-expensive palyer a la burrell in LF. Ibanez is a nice player and he should produce for 2 years. No arguing that. But they saved 6 million with Ibanez over Burrell from '08 to '09. THAT'S the main reason they signed him, to save money. Same for Moyer over Lowe. While I love Moyer, Lowe would have upgraded the rotation. Shockingly they will eat Eaton's money. And they will not bring in a significant RH bat. Willie Bloomquist is not the anwer. So overall, they've really have come backwards haven't they? Not the way a WS champ should think, but with the Phils, it's only all about the $$.

Majewski's deal calls for $15,000 per month in the minor leagues, with a side letter of agreement that calls for $650,000, plus award bonuses, if he makes the big leagues. He will get termination pay of $300,000 minus any salary he has earned to that point.

Christmas came early for the Truth with the tip o the clout cap.

DPatrone: You can make an argument the Phillies haven't gone backwards.

They've upgraded the backup catcher, and long reliever. They got a decent bat for left-field although he is a step down from Burrell.

At worst I think they've stayed the same.

I saw where the Yankees are now looking at possibly moving Nick Swisher after signing Teixeira. Wouldn't Swisher be an attractive piece for the Phillies? He can play all 3 OF positions as well as 1B, is a switch-hitter, and despite an off-year average-wise in 2008 (worst in MLB in fact among regulars), still has good power and walks a lot. He's 28 and signed through 2011 ($5-$7-$9 mil). He would not only provide a solid bat off the bench, but some needed insurance in OF and 1B. He could also play 1B fulltime if the Phillies decided to eventually deal Howard (I'm not advocating that, but it would sure make it easier for the Phillies to do it if the right offer came along).

Is there a better RH power bat available that can play decent OF and wouldn't cost an arm and a leg?

What might the Yankees want in return?

****NEPP: Let me get this straight: How a pitcher pitches in the post-season is a better measure of his value than how he pitches in the regular season? Are you serious?****

Considering that the postseason is merely a fun exhibition series after the end of the regular season that has no meaning whatsoever, I completely agree. From what I remember of MLB rules, the WS trophy is awarded to the team with the best REGULAR SEASON record and those pesky series in between the end of the regular season and the awarding of the trophy are just for fun.

Or perhaps postseason performance is important.

Right now, who would you rather have pitching Game 7 of a World Series?

Curt Schilling in his prime or CC Sabathia?

Not sure I wouldn't take Sabathia over Schill. Sabathia was a bit 'rode hard and put away wet this year when we got to him. Sorta like Mitch Williams in '93 - or did you egg his house, too? Sabbathia's control slipped against Philly and they were well-prepared to wait him out. A well-rested Sabathia wasn't our foe. If he was, I wouldn't like our chances against him.

He wasn't good the previous year in the playoffs either...just sayin'. Perhaps he was worn down that year too but I dont want a guy that wears down every year and has nothing left come playoff time.

No arguing he hasn't seen success in the post-season. Off the top of my head - Neither did Bonds. Schmidt had some brutal performances, too. Doesn't stop them from being all-time greats.

With the way he started off this past year, coming off his Cy Young, I thought he was a fat, lazy flop. You have to wonder about his conditioning and stamina. But, he turned that around big-time in Milwaukee. If you look at his IP over the last 2 years, and his 10 complete games last year, I'm not as sure I'd question his strength and stamina. It will be interesting to see how he plays on the big stage. I suspect he's going to wish he stayed in Milwaukee.

George:

I liked the phils trading for Swisher before they got Raul. Still like him, but not as a 4th OFer.

No one on here agreed with me that Swish would be a good pickup. Most think he is washed.

I think the yanks will still keep him. They need OF depth with Matsui and Damon.

"What might the Yankees want in return?"

We could offer them CJ Henry and Matt Smith, maybe.

I think the only reason Sabathia "wears down every year" is because his teams ride him into the ground. make Hamels pitch 7 CG in 17 starts down the stretch and see how much he has left for the playoffs. in 2007-2008, Sabathia threw 23 more innings--that's 80 more batters and 250 more pitches--than anyone in baseball.

I wouldn't be surprised if he pitches better in the postseason for the Yankees than he did for Cleveland/Milwaukee, solely because of Mariano Rivera.

Yo, new thread

Is anyone having problems with baseball-reference.com?! Please please tell me Yes. I might be applying for a new job soon if they finally blocked me from that site.

lvironpigs.wordpress.com
merry christmas
go phillies, go ironpigs

Has anyone heard of the meet and greet with Cole Hamels at Citizens Bank Park? It seemed pretty cool that you would receive a painting as well as Cole’s signature. I heard about it on MeetCole.com

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