Report: Phils extend offer to free agent Derek Lowe

A baseball source for the Boston Globe says the Phils are one of two teams to make their official pitch to the 35-year-old righthander, a Scott Boras client expected to receive a deal in the four-year, $14-15 million range. Lowe, who's averaged about 33 starts a season since 2002, went 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA (131 ERA+) for the West-winning Dodgers, matching a career high in strikeouts with 147. The story said the identity of Lowe's second pursuer was unknown, but confirmed it was neither the Yankees nor Red Sox, both expected to meet with Boras later this week. [Link]

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Comments

[NEPP]

Cool. I hope he signs. If this is why we didn't give Pat arbitration and it actually works out...I'll be okay with it...though we do lose a draft pick out of it...which sucks.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Good. I hope it's for real and not just something to get Moyer to come down in price/years. They've always liked Lowe, from what I remember, so I can see his ground ball inducing skills being a good fit.

[NEPP]

They tried to get him last time he was a FA too...when he went to LA.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

yep, that's what I was thinking.

On the down side, I'm more comfortable with a three year deal, but I doubt they could get him for that.

[CJ]

Derek Lowe is a PERFECT pitcher for CBP. He could easily slip into the #2 spot in the rotation (or #3, if you want to leave Myers there). Then it's Blanton at #4 and either Moyer or Happ at #5. I think this kind of pitching upgrade could go a long way to making up for a decline in offense from losing Burrell.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

And they also have Carraso looming.

[CJ]

Bed Beard: Yeah... three years is right deal for the Phillies which means whoever signs Lowe will have to pony up a fourth year. That's baseball economics.

[Len39]

Looks like I called it! Lowe would be great for several reasons. 1) He is a sinkerball pitcher in CBP 2) He seems as safe a bet as anyone to be a quality starter for years 3) He gives us another legit #2 guy if/when Myers leaves after this season 4) It could free up someone like JA Happ to trade for some righthanded power 5) Hamels/Myers/Lowe/Blanton is a heck of a rotation and even with less offense it would be hard to imagine not being in contention all year with that staff 6) Blanton is an average #3 starter, but an above average #4 starter 7) He will also help preserve the bullpen with a bunch of quality starts so the move has a ripple effect that helps the entire staff.

I really see no downside to Lowe as "sentimental" as I am about Moyer and Burrell, I would gladly take Lowe in their place. Plus, if the market isn't there for either Moyer or Burrell there is still a shot at a one year deal on them.

[NEPP]

I'd give him a 4 year deal if that's what it took. He was said to be originally asking for a 5 year deal...

[CJ]

Bed Beard: Exactly... I think Carrasco's arrival comes in 2010 when Myers is gone. And the rotation shouldn't miss a beat!

[DPatrone]

Let's not get excited abut this yet-or at all. While the Phils may have made an offer, I find it difficult to believe that any Boras client will sign here. When Lowe signs elsewhere, the Phils PR spin will be at least they tried. But in reality, their offer likely isn't good enough.

[Sophist]

Are we just falling hook-line-and-sinker for this? Lowe would be a great addition (esp in they sign Moyer as a 4/5 as well: Hamels, Lowe, Myers, Blanton, Moyer), but the Phils play these games to keep us excited. Won't the Sox just outbid the Phils anyway?

[GM-Carson]

Crazy scenario- Phils sign Lowe. Blue Jays lose Burnett. Phils trade Myers to Toronto (whom they've always liked) for one of their righthanded batting outfielders (Rios or Wells, preferably Rios). Would probably have to kick in a prospect to sweeten the deal- Happ or Donald?

[NEPP]

I put the chances of Lowe actually coming to Philly at around 10%.

Realisically we will probably be outbid unless Amaro goes nuts.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Here come the negative nellies, right on cue.

[YEAHH]

no chance the offer was anything close to what lowe wants. They did it just to get moyers price down cmon. The phils will never sign a big free agent and even if the offer was solid enough the agent would go to the mets and get a bigger offer there. Chance of the mets letting the phils get lowe is 0% after what happened the past 2 yrs. No chance the mets would let the phils sign anybody they would want first for that matter. If the player and agent arent looking for the best deal, then maybe the phils would land lowe. Thats simple economics of both teams stances on finances

[NEPP]

Myers and Donald for Rios...they MIGHT actually go for that as they need a SS and pitching...especially if you tossed in a B/C type prospect too.

[NEPP]

****The phils will never sign a big free agent ****

~coughs~

Jim Thome

~coughs again~

[CY]

how would offering lowe a contract cause moyer to lower his demands?

After offering Lowe a contract it is hard to tell moyer that we don't have any money for a starting pitcher. Especially a hometown boy who helped us win a chip.

Seems like it would only hurt negotiations if we actually signed lowe. Then moyer would not be coming back obviously.

Either way, I hope we get lowe, seems like a great fit. But I still like Sheets better, cheaper, shorter and better stuff. Bigger risk though, of course.

[bay_area_phan]

Are we just falling hook-line-and-sinker for this?

Undoubtedly, yes. They probably did make an "offer" but it was probably a ridiculous low-ball offer that they know he has no intention of accepting. It served its purpose, though. The story got out there in the media, so now: (1) the fans will be satisified that ownership really did try to be active in the FA market; and (2) management has gained a little bit of leverage in the Jamie Moyer negotiations.

[Bonehead]

How many of us believe that Phils will be okay with a 2009 payroll north of $130MM?

Because all of these pipedream posts add up to that figure.

[Sophist]

BB - what in the recent history of this team gives you the feeling that negativity isn't, in the very least, permitted to balance and fill out the discussion of this news? i don't mean to weed out the discussion of the merits or any hope that they can contract Lowe, but PR and price considerations seem relevant to the discussion (even with their pessimistic conclusions.)

[timr]

I want to believe...

[The Truth Injection]

John Perrotto reports that Amaro has reached out to Jayson Werth and Ryan Madson about signing contract extensions.

That would be an excellent move.

Also, why don't we wait on the Lowe offer details before we start trying to break it down?

[Bubba]

Let's see-- we have a Scott Boras client and a rumor from an unnamed source of a bidding war just before Boras meets with the Yankees and BoSox.

[bay_area_phan]

Bubba: Bingo! I think you just hit the nail on the head.

[king myno]

If the Phillies have every intention of letting Moyer and Burrell walk, I think the Lowe big contract pipedream is possible. However, I think the Value Village LF addition would make us retch. Still, to have a 1-2-3-4 of Hamels-Lowe-Myers-Blanton, with Carrasco hopefully taking over the no.3-4 role in 2010, makes me happy. Pitching wins championships!

[Dave X]

The Phils most likely won't land Lowe, and I wouldn't be too saddened. Pitchers that old should never get contracts that long. In terms of 2009, signing Moyer instead of Lowe is in all probability a large upgrade, as Moyer is fairly unlikely to repeat his performance at his age. The thought of having $14+ Million committed to a player - especially a pitcher - of Lowe's age, though, is enough for me not to sign him. If he declines significantly, which there is a decent chance of happening, that millstone is bigger than Eaton's and Feliz's contracts combined.

[vegas]

Bonehead-Being World Ph**king Champions has to have changed the mindset with ownership. Let's hope winning is addictive as crack and they lossen the purse strings.

[Bonehead]

King - Even with letting Burrell and Moyer walk, signing Lowe would boost 2009 payroll over $130MM.

Do you think that the Phils would be okay with that?

[NEPP]

What's crazier?

Giving Lowe 4 years or giving Moyer 2 years?

[Len39]

If you let Burrell and Moyer walk I don't see how signing Lowe would be that much of a stretch on the payroll. I mean you are talking over $20 million for Burrell and Moyer and Lowe won't cost $20 million. Then the pipe dream would be retaining Burrell or Moyer at a discount if there are no good offers for them.

I wouldn't expect any other money spent on anything after Lowe except the arbitration raises. I do think we will be looking at a Jay Payton type/Jenkins/Stairs/Dobbs platoon in leftfield at that point. Hopefully they can get creative and maybe package Donald and Happ for Delmon Young. I was reading there was a lot of interest in Young so that is probably a pipe dream.

Anyway, no matter who is in leftfield I feel really good about a starting four of Hamels/Myers/Lowe/Blanton with the same bullpen returning.

[bay_area_phan]

"Pitchers that old should never get contracts that long."

That's true only in theory. In reality, you have to overpay to get top-drawer FAs. If you don't, you'll never get them.

I also think the concerns about Lowe's age are a little overstated. He's 35 (turning 36 next season), with a long history of being extremely consistent and extremely durable. As a finesse pitcher with great command, he is exactly the type of pitcher that should continue to be effective into his late 30s. In fact, I would guess that he'll probably still be a useful starter even into his early 40s.

Given his consistency and his strong health history, I would actually say that Derek Lowe for 4 years would be considerably less risky than AJ Burnett for 5 years. Burnett has more upside, but way, way more risk.

[stjoehawk]

"However, I think the Value Village LF addition would make us retch."

Quick quiz: Who was the original 'Value Village' player?

Answer: JC Romero (http://beerleaguer.typepad.com/beerleaguer/2007/06/game_chat_phill_5.html)

The lesson here is that Value Village is NOT a bad thing on its own. It's looking for a bargain & hoping to strike it big. If it fails, it's not a huge loss, but if it works, there's a nice payoff.

[stjoehawk]

"In reality, you have to overpay to get top-drawer FAs. If you don't, you'll never get them."

And look at where that got the Phillies...

[NEPP]

Considering that Werth, Romero, Victorino, Dobbs & Moyer(waiver trade for essentially nothing) were all essentially "scrap heap" acquisitions we might want to let our scouting dept take a shot on finding a cheap LF. That's a pretty good run on low-cost solutions right there.

[Hibachi]

"As a finesse pitcher with great command, he is exactly the type of pitcher that should continue to be effective into his late 30s. In fact, I would guess that he'll probably still be a useful starter even into his early 40s."

Just to add to that, there has been a lot of mention about Lowe's attitude getting better as he gets older, so I don't think giving 4 years to a 35/36 year old in this situation would be that much of a negative.

[baxter]

They already got their low-cost scrap heap Stanford alum solution.

[Lazarus]

I can't see the Phillies actually landing Lowe given that the Yankees and Sox both want him as well, but if the FO somehow pulls it off his addition would certainly keep us in the mix next year.

[clout]

Nice to see the Phillies maintain their league lead in FA star "mentions." They were also mentioned in connection with that Japanese pitcher who signed with the Red Sox and had numerous mentions in last off-season in connection with the FA stars.

[CJ]

I'm just choosing to ignore the naysayers in this case.

After all, many of them declared our season over numerous times this year.

It apparently makes them feel better to be negative about everything Phillies related.

Quick reminder: WFC.

[clout]

BedBeard: And your reason for believing this will happen is....?

[Len39]

BAP: I couldn't agree more with your assessment. Lowe is the safest bet out there to give a four year deal to. I would definitley take him over Burnett. I was just looking at Lowe's stats and since becoming a starter in 2002 he's made over 32 starts every year. His pitching style shows no indication he won't keep that going until his 40s. Age isn't everything.

NEPP: I just hope it wasn't Gillick's skills that found those players off the scrap heap. I think Gillick's greatest accomplishment was getting Victorino, Werth, Moyer, Dobbs, Coste, Romero, Durbin for next to nothing. I did read that Victorino was Amaro's find so hopefully that is a sign of things to come.

[stjoehawk]

"Nice to see the Phillies maintain their league lead in FA star "mentions." They were also mentioned in connection with that Japanese pitcher who signed with the Red Sox and had numerous mentions in last off-season in connection with the FA stars."

They also lead the league (as well as the majors) in World Series wins in 2008.

[johnnysanz3]

I don't know his personal feelings or anything about pitching in Citizen's Bank Park, but remember how he rolled his eyes and got angry because of Utley's home run in the dodgers series? Doesn't seem to me like he appreciates the field, (and yes I know it's not that bad of a home run park as advertised)

[NEPP]

Maybe the Phillies could hire Scott Boras to make a "Binder" detailing CBP's strengths as a pitchers park. Would that be a conflict of interest?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Giants and Marlins considering a Sanchez for Cantu deal.

[clout]

NEPP: "Considering that Werth, Romero, Victorino, Dobbs & Moyer(waiver trade for essentially nothing) were all essentially "scrap heap" acquisitions we might want to let our scouting dept take a shot on finding a cheap LF. That's a pretty good run on low-cost solutions right there."

Agreed if you forget about all the scrap heap players they brought in who failed.

[NEPP]

But that's the good thing about scrap heap guys clout...they don't cost anything so if they fail it doesnnt kill you like an Adam Eaton signing.

[CJ]

clout: But if you're bringing in a bunch of scrap heap players, it doesn't matter if they fail as long as you don't waste a great deal of time on them. They're cheap for a reason. When you look at the value we've gotten out of the Value Village (WFC anyone?), it's certainly a strategy that's worked out. No one is going to hit on every signing.