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Monday, December 08, 2008

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Dang, after this Peavy and Lowe talk I feel bad for kinda wanting Moyer to move on.

Rosenthal also said that "The Padres like some of the Phillies' young minor-league pitchers." Don't think he's talking about Adam Eaton.

The Phillies are just fuckin' with us now, right?

Peavy has a no trade clause in his contract. Would he accept a trade to the WFC?

Should I stop dreaming now or later? We would have to sell the farm to see Peavy in pinstripes.

Hamels & Peavy WOW!!!!!

How much of the farm system would it take to get Peavy? I hope there is something to this rumor.

That's too much for Moyer even if you are paying him to be the pitching coach too. I think Punto would be an upgrade over Bruntlett, but it won't be that big of a difference. Maybe they would hold onto Bruntlett and make him a 4th or 5th outfielder. I'm not saying that's a good move, I'm just wondering if that's what they are thinking.

I'm not screaming for Amaro to make any major moves yet. There really haven't been a bunch of big moves. I'm being patient to see how whatever plan they have plays out.

Granted Moyer never has really cashed in with a big contract during his career but 2 yr/$20M as a base with likely incentives?

If that is the case, I can see why Amaro is haggling over dollars. Crazy to commit over $20M to a 46-year old pitcher.

Article on MLB.com has Towers saying that its Peavy to the Cubs or nothing and he's off the market at the end of the winter meetings. Plus, Peavy has a no trade clause. I guess we can dream, but nothing to get too excited about. Then again no one suspected that Oakland would get Holiday.

The article does state that no Peavy deal will be completed until the Cubs' new owner is decided. The new owner would need to approve the addition of Peavy, who is owed $63 million.

Interesting - what a great time to break open the piggy bank.

JW: Rosenthal may be misinterpreting that report in this sense: The Cubs and Padres have been seeking a third team to make their Peavy trade work. The Cubs would get Peavy under any scenario. The Cubs have prospects to make the deal work, but not at the positions the Padres want. So the two teams are looking for a third team to swap prospects with the Cubs, with the third team's prospects going to SD.

Both Fox Sports and Rotoworld are reporting it as the Phillies being the third partner, which would facilitate a Peavy to Cubs trade. An example: Phillies send young pitching to SD, Cubs trade Ronny Cedeno and thirdbase prospect Josh Vitters to Phila. and something more subtantial to SD. Peavy goes to Chic.

Depending on the quality of the young pitching they'd have to give up, that would be a good trade for the Phils.

Where is the uberprospect the Padres would want in return for Peavy including the positional player with power?

MLBTR saying that the Phillies would be the third team involved in the deal, to help facilitate Peavy to the Cubs, rather than acquire Peavy.

http://scott-miller.blogs.sportsline.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6270335/12173484

I just read the Rosenthal report and it is consistent with the other reports. It's not about Peavy going to the Phillies.

8:01pm: Scott Miller of CBSSports.com says Jason Marquis and Angel Guzman (among others) could end up with the Padres in the three-team deal. The Padres could get J.A. Happ and/or Chris Coste from the Phils. Miller adds that the Phils are known to have interest in Mark DeRosa.

...but if the Pads really do want a ss and veteran catcher, we'd be able to put together a legitimate package, even if it meant giving up Victorino...I'm not saying the Phils would do this, but with our assets, we should be in on the talks, right?

Re: Vitters, he was the Cubs 1st rounder in 2007 and began his pro career at age 17. He was considered one of the best pure hitters in HS, although there were questions about his glove.

His numbers so far are just OK with a worrisome 64/16 K/BB. On the bright side he's doing that at ages 17 and 18. Golson was doing that at ages 21 and 22.

Baseball America, which has a strong tools bias, rates him as the 43rd best prospect in baseball and the Cubs best.

Maybe the Phillies want Chase Headley from the Padres to play LF? I highly doubt the Padres would want to trade him though (especially since they would be trading Peavy).

I'd trade Happ, Jaramillo, and a guy like Drew Naylor if it brought over Josh Vitters, he'd be a top two prospect for us. Peavy has that full no trade with the Phils being a team he wouldn't go to.

If it doesn't net us an outfielder or a starting pitcher, I don't really see the point in our involvement. I will be super pissed if we trade our young pitching for Jason Marquis. I'm all for thinking long term but chances are the pads want vitters and aren't going to accept a deal where the phls are the one who gets them, plus, vitters will not be ready for another year and a half if were lucky. I'd rather see the phils in a win-now mode with the current group then thinking about the future.

Plus what does it matter if the cubs have zambrano, peavy, harden, lilly and their former long releiver(whose name is alluding me right now sadly), if they still can't hit the damn ball.

The Phils are just the 3rd Team in the deal and would prob end up with Derosa for Happ

Actually looking at that proposal I would need something of value from the Pads too.

DeRosa is interesting, but the part that falls short is the Padres haul: They give up the 2nd best pitcher in the NL for Happ, Coste, Marquis and Guzman. I don't think so.

Clout~

Please explain to me how this is a good trade for the Phils. We are not getting Peavy. So who are we getting. I do not believe that either the Cubs or Pads would have anything that would upgrade are starting staff or LF situation. So how does this possible trade benefit us. Ronny Cedeno? Vitters? Give me a break.

If we get Derosa I'm wondering if that makes Donald expendable to aquire Delmon Young.

In that Happ/Coste package, I get why Vitters; but why not Reed Johnson instead of Ronnie Cedeno? He'd be an excellent RH platoon, since he's much better against LHP; plus he absolutely pwns Johann Santana (and John Maine, if that's really relevant) and he does pretty well against C.C. Sabathia, too.

I think Happ and Coste going out with Johnson and Vitters coming in would be a good day's work.

The second graph of the linked report, which Rosenthal contributed to according to the footnote: "Both the Cubs and World Series champion Phillies have entered the fray to land the Padres' ace." But Clout's correct in that other reports suggest Phillies as third team. Confusing reports, but I'll keep the header as is.

DPatrone: As I said in my original post, depending on the quality of the young pitching it could be a good trade for the Phils. Without knowing who the Phils are giving up, it's hard to judge, but Vitters is a quality prospect and Cedeno is an upgrade from Bruntlett. If the trade involves Happ & Coste, as one report had it, I'd still do it, understanding that I'm rolling the dice on an 18-year-old. If it were Happ & Coste for DeRosa, that's a no brainer. DeRosa would be a giant upgrade over Feliz, can play every day and can fill in at 5 other positions.

Andy: "I think Happ and Coste going out with Johnson and Vitters coming in would be a good day's work."

It sure would and the Cubs would be nuts to do it.

Can anyone give me a link to a list of the top 50 MLB prospects for 2009?

While I would hate to see the Cubs get a starter the caliber of Peavy if the Phils get a prospect like Vitter or someone like DeRosa (absolutely ideal utility player next year for the Phils), I am for it.

But, the Cubs wouldn't be doing Johnson and Vitters for Happ and Coste...they'd be getting Peavy. So, not sure they'd be nuts in that regard...

DeRosa is actually the player I think Jason Donald could grow up to be. He would obviously be an upgrade at third but, if they had to give up Happ, I don't see how the trade makes sense. They're already one pitcher short in their starting rotation. Trading Happ would leave them 2 short.

BAP: If they deal Happ, they pretty much have to re-sign Moyer and make another trade.

Hibachi: Giving Johnson and Vitters to the Phils for Happ and Coste isn't going to get them Peavy. Giving Vitters or Johnson to the Padres might help. Johnson's name hasn't been mentioned anywhere except as a Beerleaguer fantasy.

Wow, is a deal done...??

9:00pm: MLB.com's Corey Brock says the legwork on this trade "has essentially been completed." No deal has been reached, but
Towers says he's facilitated a three or possibly four-team deal. The third and possibly fourth teams (Orioles, Phillies) have agreed to players. There could be some haggling remaining on players sent from the Cubs to Padres.

Brock says all Towers needs now is the go-ahead from Hendry.

From Hot Stove blog:
"The legwork, complex and time-consuming, for a potential Jake Peavy trade to the Chicago Cubs has essentially been completed.

Now, all Padres general manager Kevin Towers needs is for his Cubs' counterpart, Jim Hendry, to give him the go-ahead to make the deal.

Towers said Monday night that he has facilitated a three-team and possibly a four-team deal that would send Peavy to the Chicago for a package of players.

"There's a package there that will satisfy us ... there's a deal in the way of names," said Towers, who carefully stated that no deal, even in principle, has been reached.

Towers, who had a discussion with Hendry earlier Monday, said he had been in contact with a third and a fourth team - believed to be the Orioles and Phillies - and has gotten both sides to agree to the players in play who could be moved in a deal.

Towers did say there might be some "haggling" over the players the Padres would get in return from the Cubs.

The Padres are looking for Major League-ready pitching in return for Peavy, whether it be from the Cubs or the other teams involved.

Towers said a deal "could happen quick" if Hendry and the Cubs agree to assuming not only Peavy's $11 million salary in 2009 but the remainder of the $63 million he's owed over the next four seasons.


Right, but I thought the hold up on Vitters as part of the Peavy deal was that he wasn't major league ready enough.

It only makes sense if the Padres do actually like the Phillies minor league pitchers that are closer to major league ready.

Wouldn't Vitters go to SD? I would assume so. Out of the scramble, Coste/Happ goes to SD and we would get DeRosa?

Happ meets the definition of "major league ready" pitching. Garrett Olsen of the Orioles does also and his name has been mentioned in the deal.

I would love to have Mark DeRosa. After Utley comes back would they platoon him in left, or just make him the starter? He only played 65 games in the OF last year (38 RF, 27 in LF).

Happ could be a nice player for SD. DeRosa could be a nice player for us.

Piecing together reports, it looks like Olson, Happ, Coste, Guzman and Vitters would go to SD, Peavy to the Cubs, Felix Pie to the O's and Cedeno and Marquis to the Phils. Padres don't want Marquis, apparently.

If the Peavy three-team deal occurred with the Phils as the third trade partner where we'd acquire DeRosa for J.A. Happ and/or Chris Coste, then it would be interesting on several levels. For instance, might we be seeing a DeRosa plus JRivera/Baldelli solution for the Burrell departure? Cots has DeRosa with a 3 yr deal, ending in '09, w/ him making 5.5 mil next year, while Burrell will make significantly more. Also, Marcels has DeRosa w/ a .350 wOBA next year and Burrell w/ at a .369 wOBA. Of course, DeRosa plays a more important position (2B), albeit slightly below avg. In comparison to the pathetic Burrell defense at a less demanding position (LF), Burrell and DeRosa could be argued as providing similar WAR production. Both are RH. DeRosa also has flexibility to cover for Utley when he's hurt and then could move to 3B or LF. I'd love to have Peavy, but, if we aren't going to get him, then I'll take this as an alternative solution.

Good God, the only way I hope we get Marquis is if the Pads take back Eaton. Seriously, Marquis in the mix has to be a joke... Clout, you have to be kidding.

I'd be very surpised if the Cubs dealt DeRosa for Happ & Coste. Fontenot at 2B is a below average fielder who can't hit lefties. Trading DeRosa would leave a platoon hole there plus deprive them of the most valuable multi-position player in the NL.

pblunts: Nope, Marquis is in the deal according to several reports and he's going to a third team since the Pads don't want him.

I know fans are notorious for overvaluing prospects, but trading Happ for Marquis and Cedeno is pretty lame.

NONONONONO Marquis! Why would you not give Happ a shot at ML minimum? Marquis is getting $9+ million next year. If this is the deal, it's awful for the Phils.

Clout if you are right about that deal I don't like it at first glance. Cendeno doesn't excite me much nor does Marquis.

I'd be much happier with DeRosa

Kid: Marquis was 11-9, 4.53 in 167 IP last year and 12-9, 4.60 in 192 IP the year before. But he hasn't won the Cy Young like Happ has, so you're right.

Happ and Coste for Marquis and Cedeno is interesting as well. Coste is replaceable w/ Marson. I'd also have to wonder if the Moyer talks are finished. From a production standpoint, I'd place Marquis as a younger version of Moyer. Marcels has Marquis at 162 IP, 4.62 ERA next year, while Moyer is listed as 178 IP, 4.58 ERA. Both are LH. Marquis brings GB's - last 4 yrs - 48%, 50%, 43%, 51%. My main issue - can we then hire Maddux as the auxiliary pitching guru du jour to replace Moyer? Cedeno could be a useful plus defender at 2B in case Donald is not ready.

kevmac: So would I. But the Cubs would have to be nuts to make a trade that lopsided. Keep in mind they hope to win the World Series next year.

MAS: I agree with your post. Cedeno is a clear upgrade over Bruntlett, is a better fielder and has more power. And I could absolutely see Marquis having at least as good a season as Moyer next year.

Marquis in 08' : 11-9, 167 IP, 172 H, 4.53 ERA, 99 ERA+. $9.875 contract. YUCK

Oh for god's sake, no one assumes that Happ will be anything close to a Cy Young pitcher. I don't even know that he's worth more than Cedeno/Marquis...I just don't think we have to throw away prospects for that garbage just so that another NL contender can get better.

Von: I know you worry about the Phils budget, but this is all rank speculation based on the names being thrown around. Might be totally different and might not even happen.

Kid: My bet is that Amaro doesn't do the deal unless he thinks it makes the team better.

Von: That $9.8M going to Marquis is less than the $10M Moyer wants.

Clout, do you think it makes the team better?

Clout: I hope it doesn't. It would drive me nuts if the Phils spent money in the off-season and they spent it on Marquis. I know I'm over-valuing Happ (I would NEVER give up DeRosa for Happ and Coste), but IMO a young cheap LH starter is worth more than crappy Jason Marquis.

While Marquis is slightly overpaid (9.875) next year, at least it is only for one year of being overpaid. I wonder what Moyer is asking for - 2 yrs / 16 mil? Another thought would be to resign Moyer with Marquis and have a rotation of Hamels - Myers - Blanton - Moyer - Marquis. I'm not enamored w/ the Marquis deal. I can understand it more if Moyer is leaving and Lowe/Burnett/etc. are not feasible.

New thread with pic of Marquis. Thanks Clout for sorting out the mess.

Von: If your bottom line is dollars and not wins, I agree.

Clout: I don't want Moyer for $10 mil. If he wants more than $8 mil for 1yr he can take a hike.

Jason Marquis probably isn't much of an upgrade over JA Happ. DeRosa needs to be coming back in this deal for it to make any type of sense.

Clout: I was referring to Happ's trade value (or the apparent lack of). The bottom line is wins. Definitely.

Ok let me to try and understand this. How exactly does this scenario (marquis coming to Phillies and Happ leaving) make any sense and help the Phils? It doesn't, can't be right. Why would you trade for a mediocre pitcher who makes 9M when you have a guy like Happ who very well do the same thing? Plus, it's not as if Cedeno is a world beater. You are also making a 2008 divisional champ stronger by facilitating a trade for one of the top pitchers in baseball while relieving them of a garbage pitcher with a big salary. If we wake up tomorrow and this is essentially the deal, we should all be very worried about the Phils future. I'm going to bed giving Amaro the benefit of the doubt and that this deal is a ridiculous rumor.

I'm not sure that I agree that we should never trade in the NL or instead pretend that we can block a Peavy trade. For one, the Cubs aren't in our division and so this isn't like we're helping the Mets. In addition, for whatever reason, we're not on the same budget as the Cubs, Mets, Sox or Yanks. Finally, it sounds like the Pods are looking for a young slugger (Vitters), which we don't have in our system, in addition to pitching. As an aside, can you believe that 46 yr old Moyer wants 2 yr / 20? I don't blame Amaro for shopping around for a replacement.

Booooyaaah!

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