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Tuesday, December 09, 2008


Love it. How much?

Wow getting rid of Adam Eaton and Reggie Taylor for a bag of baseballs in 1999 would have been a steal for us, let alone getting a 5-time 15-game winner and a 3-time Cy Young Candidate in return.

Ah, what could have been...

"Maybe they're confusing the "in" for the line waiting to Donny & Marie."

JW, clearly the funniest line you have written in a while.

I would LOL, but my better half would not take kindly, as I'm sitting here having to suffer through her watching "The Joy Luck Club". Arrrrgh! Hence, I'm online.

On to Pettitte:

Call me crazy, but IMO you may get the exact same thing out of Pettitte or Happ in 2009. AAMOF, I think you might get more out of those two than Moyer.

Who knows.....maybe Moyer has figured out pitching after 40 and can repeat 2008, but I don't think so.

Pettitte would probably be an upgrade from Moyer, and would certainly be a better risk if a 2 year deal is required.

In other news, Ken Rosenthal is reporting this:

""7:06 p.m. — Smoltz's agents in action
Free-agent right-hander John Smoltz's agents are circulating recent video of the pitcher as well as his medical reports to clubs at the winter meetings.

One general manager says he believes that Smoltz for the first time might be willing to leave the Braves, for whom he has pitched since 1988.

The Braves are waiting to determine if Smoltz is sufficiently recovered from shoulder surgery before offering him a contract, creating the opportunity for other teams to bid.

The Red Sox would have definite interest in Smoltz on a one-year deal, a major-league source said. So might the Yankees, Dodgers and any other team in need of starting pitching.

Smoltz threw off a mound for the first time last Friday since undergoing surgery last June.""

If Smoltz is reasonably healthy, I would be interested were I Jr.

That unsuccessful Pettitte "deal" looks like exactly like a typical BLer proposal.

For the what the Phillies need, which is reliability in at least four spots in the rotation, I'm taking a pass on Smoltz.

If only Greg Golson was still around and Pettitte was under Yankees' control, the updated package could include Taylor clone Greg Golson, Eaton and Brian Mazone for Pettitte.

From the Last thread:

Hey CJ~ I did n't say the season was over. If you would pay attention, all I said was they go to the winter meetings and do nothing. Just waste time. Now I ask you, Yesterday and today, who have they signed or traded for? The answer is no one. So what I said is accurate.

Now I don't mind if you disagree or are critcal, but read first.

Do you really think they're gonna get Lowe, Peavy, or a big bat? If you do, then that's fine. I don't. I hope I'm wrong. All this talk about other pitchers is nothing more than smoke screen to get Moyer back to the negotiating table. That's all. They're are not going to out-bid the Yankees here. Boras will have none of that.

As far as the hitter is concearned, If Burrell wanted a 3-yr deal then they should have worked it out. Would what rather them do? Give a 3-yr. deal to Burrell (32) or Ibanez (36 and LH). And Ibanez aint comin cheap. De Rosa? Nice player. Not Burrell's bat but much more versatile. But I don't give up Happ for him and I don't aide the Cubs in any way to get one of the top 3 pitchers in the NL. Think about it.

ESPN reports only 2 teams Pettitte would pitch for: Yanks,Dodgers. They have been wrong before.

Manuel extended through 2011. I guess when you can't get any new players to fill holes adequately, you give the manager a new deal just to say you did something.

Anyway, congrats to Cholly, but Hey Jr. this could have waited.


I'm relieved MG is going to graciously give the Phillies until January before he gives us his grade.

Mostly kidding.

I think the Phillies wanted Lowe and had intentions on being in on him up to a point. I know people will say, "They were never going to sign him," but every person is signable by a team for a number.

My question is this: If you're the GM and you have a 36 year old pitcher pushing for 4 years and 14-15 per would you do that? If that same 36 year old pitcher is now reportedly being offered 65 over 4- would you do that?

I agree the Phillies have the nucleus to make moves and continue contending but short-sightedness is what puts teams in slumps where they go ten years between playoff appearances.

The Phillies have a few garbage contracts on their books already and while Lowe would be good if he hits the wall two years from now we are on the hook for a lot of money over two years. Trading for something like Marquis or signing a guy like Paul Byrd for 2 years or so might be enough tinkering and doesn't cripple you in the future.

It's fun to play GM but too often we (myself included) live in a fantasy world where people have unlimited money. I'm as frustrated as anybody that owners won't open the purse strings but making the right moves is what wins championships, not spending the most money. Until Amaro starts doing some things we need patience.

On another note: Has anyone heard anything on Jon Garland? Depending on the market I think he'd be a fine back end of the rotation guy. He's also pretty young yet.

Good for Charlie!!! He deserves it. After all he's the manager of the World F*****g

Yes Dp, the F.O. is preparing to send Charlie his next three year projects. I am guessing anger management, runaway ego and flights of fancy.

Mr. Patrone, good points on Burrell/Ibanez.

To expand on your point, I have always assumed they didn't want to give Burrell more than a year or two because they hope Michael Taylor will be ready as a less costly alternative.

After reading about their "interest" in Ibanez, it strikes me that maybe their "reluctance" to bring Burrell back smacks of some spite on their part - for him not agreeing to a trade the last couple of seasons, and (I'll assume you're correct) the fact that they don't feel they got their money's worth with his last contract.

Pure speculation on my part, but hey, the FO are human.

Truth: I'm inclined to try to take advantage of the small window that this team still has to win another championship.

If they can't re-sign Moyer & Burrell rather than turn it over to thr rookies and pretty much write off the season I'd like to see them try to upgrade with short contracts for veterans.

In that context a Marquis or a Byrd or a Pettitte is a good thing, not a bad thing.

I say this knowing they will not sign a Ramirez or a Lowe.

"Until Amaro starts doing some things"

Truth, don't hold your breath.

How did readers find Beerleaguer this week?

Well, according to Google tracking, the search term "how tall is ken rosenthal" generated 22 visits.

The rest of the search entries are generally readers trying to nail clout's ass to the wall over something he wrote in 2006.

Clout: I agree that I have no problem with a veteran on a short deal to try and stop gap.

It's the long term nature that worries me. I don't want the Phillies doing foolish things just to try and stay in contention. That is what is bothering me about some of the discussion taking place.

Like I said- a guy like Lowe at a number is fine. At the number he is up to now is bad and would hurt long term.

For those who care- Comcast is replaying the clinching game against the Nationals. Chepa plug: My #1 moment on the year is the game ending double play. Relive the happiness

With the thought of extending the window, why not spend the yearly money we would put towards Lowe to Ben Sheets, but do it for less time. 2 years 30 mil, assuming his arm injury at the end of the year wasn't structural, could get it done. Yes, Sheets is a gamble, but a much shorter term one than the obnoxious numbers being thrown out for Lowe, who is 35 after all. And when Sheets actually is pitching, he's better than Lowe. And he has thrown 340 innings over the last two years, at an ERA+ over 130. Just a thought...

AWH: See that's the kind of talk that is annoying.

The market is moving slow becasue of the lack of certainity of money. Amaro has by many acocunts been in on a bunch of things and was done on his end in a Peavy deal. He is doing and working on things. Let's maybe try and be patient and hold judgment until the end of the off-season

The key phrasing there is "when Sheets actually pitching"

How often is he actually healthy? He's been injured almost every year of his career.

Garland is interesting but he did have a pretty big warning sign with his drop in OPS+ from 07 to 08 (112 to 92). Being that he's never been an overpowering pitcher, that's a bad sign. He'd better have a comprehensive physical first.

Update on Peavy:

The Padres shot down a national report that they are targeting Phillies catcher Chris Coste as part of a Jake Peavy trade that would move Cubs infielder Mark DeRosa to the Phillies. Phillies left-hander J.A. Happ, viewed as a potential No. 4 or 5 starter for 2009, is on the radar, along with a lower-level pitching prospect. The Padres are seeking young pitching from the Phillies as part of the many scenarios involving three or four teams in a trade that would place Jake Peavy with the Cubs.

Considering his 08 season, Taguchi is getting a bunch of play over on MLBTradeRumors

Who cares?!?

Truth, I haven't seen any poster here indicating that he/she thinks the Phils should break the bank for an FA.

Rather, I think some posters get frustrated because they feel the FO does not understand that, as clout stated, there is a window of opportunity that will close.

Unless, of course, the minor league talent is so amazing that the young inexpensive studs like Taylor and Galvis and Carrasco and Carpenter and Bastardo and Marson and Donald, to name a few, will be so good that it will percolate up and be the continuation of a new era in Phillies history, one that ushers in winning season after winning season, WFC after WFC, and in the future Phillies fans are so overwhelmed with joy that they have a massive collective orgasm on Broad Street following the 10th straight WFC.

More than likely, though, the current 'core' has another couple of years to actually win it again, before they become too expensive, too old, or both.

So, no, we don't want Jr. to break the bank, but we do want him to try to keep them a real contender.

The Mets improved their bullpen significantly today.

What did the Phillies do?

What will they do? If Dom Patrone is right..............not a lot, and that would be a shame.

"AWH: See that's the kind of talk that is annoying."

To which I respond: Have a sense of humor. :-)

Stop worrying about the Mets. They were hailed as unbeatable after the Santana trade and that was BS too. The National Media has a decided pro NY/BOS tilt to all of their reports so again we will be subjected to "Mets are WS favorites in 09" stories from now till next Sept when they suck on it again.


"Rather, I think some posters get frustrated because they feel the FO does not understand that, as clout stated, there is a window of opportunity that will close."

Posters need to have some patience.

Latest from MLBTradeRumors:

• Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. won't acknowledge that his team is the third club in the Jake Peavy deal. But Amaro came close, saying the Phillies have a deal out there where, "if we can get one or two teams to agree on something, we're ready to move."

Amaro also said he could have the payroll flexibility to take on a large free-agent contract (a la Derek Lowe) if that contract were backloaded. "Depends on the structure of the deal," he said.

NEPP: That's not good news. I'd rather see them give up Coste than another pitching prospect unless it's someone like Matt Smith.

Yeah, I get the feeling that the Padres want Happ and someone like Bastardo or Kendrick, etc etc. Even Happ and Kendrick is pushing it as we have NO DEPTH at starting pitcher if that happens.

the NL East clinching game is on comcast right now, in the ninth inning after Pedro Feliz gave the Phils the all important insurance run in the 8th. Good ol Pedro, showing up when it mattered most all year long.

NEPP, relax, or are you getting grouchy in the cold up in VT?

Worry about the Mets? If you read my post in the last thread, KRod doesn't really worry me, but he is an upgrade, and should be recognized as such.

Also, if you remember previous posts of mine (I'll assume you read all the posts like I do), I'm on record in 'saying' the Fish may be more trouble than the Mets in 2009.

Right now, even with KRod, I think the Phils are better than the Mets. But Minaya won't sit still.

Let's hope Jr. doesn't.

I didn't mean to come off as strong as I did I suppose. Krod is definitely a legit improvement for the Mets.

A reliable source has just informed me that trades are being delayed at the MLB winter meetings in Las Vegas because a new movie, "Ocean's Thirteen And Three With A 1.97 ERA," is currently being filmed at the Belaggio. The premise of the movie is that the Phillies go to the winter meetings and steal the best available talent from the other teams. I wonder who will get to play the Phanatic in the movie.

By the way, is the Phanatic a left-handed hitter or a right-handed hitter and can he play both second base and left field? If he is a right-handed hitter and can play both positions, can he play them simultaneously?

On the Peavy trade "If a deal is reached, it'd be announced after Thursday's Rule 5 draft". Wonder why this would be a hold up and if so, wonder if other teams are holding up trades?

Brett Myers could embark on an off-season career.

AWH: There is too much- Phillies need to make this move or we are worse than the Mets talk. Also the whole- we were never going to sign Lowe talk ignores what I asked in my first post. If you were the GM and see where the market is now- would you do it?

My larger point- that maybe I'm admittedly not making clear enough- is this. I want the Phillies to make some moves to get better but I want them to do so with some foresight. Shrewder moves where we don't just sign aging talent to big money deals. I don't want to see us having the same discussion in three years where "Lowe is too much money for what he can give you," and "We don't have enough cash to get what we need."

With this core we don't need a lot to contend next year. Hopefully within 2-3 years we have some more talent bubbling up from the minor league system.

I want smart moves, that keep costs within reason but make the team better. It's entirely possible

In Re: Burrell, I have a feeling that Jr. has an incorrect spin on the 'Devil you know, devil you don't' adage. Besides being a round peg for a square hole, Ibanez has shown shaky stats in the past, and I'm not sold on his apparent market value. Not to say he isn't a good hitter, but I think Amaro needs to step back and take a look at a stop-gap situation for left until Taylor is ready, like a DeRosa/Payton type.

PS - And before anyone asks, I don't know Amaro personally. This is speculation, not insider knowledge
PPS - That was a joke.

BedBeard, posters have patience.

But, if they get a litlle frustrated with the FO, let's examine some of what might be frustrating them:

Amaro makes a public statement that "it's not the money, but the length of contract", that is what the FO's concern is, particularly with regard to Burrell, and somewhat with Moyer.

Then, the FO doesn't offer arb to either player (in which each could be had on a one-year deal), with Jr. saying they wanted to preserve their "flexibility".

In other words, it was the money, not the length of contract. Jr. talks out of both sides of his mouth (a habit that has earned him the monker "Liar Liar"), exposes himself doing so, and the fans aren't supposed to get frustrated.

Now, we here they have an interest in Ibanez, and if we're supposed to believe them, then, as I posted above, the length and cost of his contract contradicts their key objection to bringing back Burrell.

What gives?

So, I'm patient, but I raised a major objection to how this FO does business in a previous thread, when I asked that they simply be honest with the fans.

It does seem, however, to be a problem for them.

Anything else?

Truth, I agree with your entire post.

I'm in "wait and see" mode, but as I posted above in a response to BedBeard, I just don't want the FO to BS the fans and treat us like we can't remember what they said last week.

Amaro has a history of (and I'm being kind) "misleading statements".

We have a right - nay, an obligation - to call him on contradictions, obfuscation, and outright deception when we see them.

Based on Leslie Gudel's 10:00 p.m. conversation with Ruben and her own subsequent commentary on DNL looks more like DeRosa will be a Phil, Happ a Padre and Donald the third baseman of the future with the Iron Pigs. If they can do something with Lowe, Moyer is gone and if they can't Moyer will likely will be back.

Found this interesting excerpt from David Golebiewski at Fangraphs: "Something declined in the Bronx this past year, but it wasn’t Pettitte: the quality of the defense behind him is the culprit for Andy’s ascending ERA.

In terms of controllable skills, Pettitte has lost almost nothing to father time. He struck out 6.97 batters per nine innings while showing his typically-solid control, issuing 2.43 BB/9. That 2.87 K/BB ratio helped Pettitte post a 3.71 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA). The 0.84 run difference between his actual ERA (4.54) and his FIP ERA is the fifth-largest in baseball among qualified pitchers. The reason for that wide dichotomy is Andy’s Sistine Chapel-high .339 BABIP. When a hitter put the ball in play, those Yankee gloves did a very poor job of converting it into an out. The Bombers ranked 25th in the majors in Defensive Efficiency."

The Phillies have their defensive issues, namely Howard and Burrell, but Burrell is likely gone, and even with Burrell, the Phils still glove it better than the Yanks. That, and the fact that LHP tend to improve when transferring from the AL to NL (See Pettitte - 03-05), and you have an interesting Pettitte discussion.

Also, I wanted to repost this from the previous thread:

As World Series Champs, I look at it as we need to tread water, rather than significantly upgrade. Thankfully, we have two MVP's, Utley, a closer and an ace w/ some setup men. Life could be worse. Losing Burrell, despite his defense, will be a significant loss, especially considering the lingering injuries to Feliz and Utley. Garland is a suitable backup for Moyer. I also really like the idea that Amaro appears to be pushing hard for Lowe. 4 yr / 68 mill would be my limit. He's older, which brings risk, but his skillset (GB%) is more conducive to a longer career. I'm surprised that we haven't kicked the tires on Ben Sheets. If we even considered Moyer at 2 yr / 20 mil, I don't see why Sheets at 2 yrs / 26 mill wouldn't be worth considering. Basically, I think we can take the Burrell/Moyer hit, if we upgrade the pitching (Lowe/Sheets) and backfill w/ Punto's and Rivera's of the world. However, if we tread water w/ pitching (Moyer/Garland), then I'd like to see more offense and substitute DeRosa and Ibanez for Punto / Rivera. Given our batting needs (LF platoon, RH bat, temp injury help at 2B & 3B), DeRosa would be a perfect fit.

MAS: Pettitte's numbers in the first half of last season were very good. In the second half, they were terrible.

Did the Yankees stop fielding for him at All-Star break?

Congrat to Cholly. If he manages through 2011, he will be the longest tenured Phils manager since Gene Mauch (1960-8).

why don't the phils vie directly with the padres to hammer a deal to bring peavy to phl??

Clout - The 1st/2d half discrepancy might be a sample size issue. An anti-Freddy Boom Boom physical might be in order to be safe. Regardless, in addition to the aforementioned numbers, Pettitte does bring other attributes (veteran presence to replace Moyer, more championship experience, LH). This, of course, is all conjecture and not placed in any context. Still, it's worth kicking the tires. I like Pettitte more than Moyer and Garland, but maybe not as much as Lowe.

Hey Cholly: Because Peavy has a full no-trade clause and doesn't want to play in Philly.

Jack: Thanks...

yep- that would be a good reason not to..

D**n no trade clause.

"If only Greg Golson was still around and Pettitte was under Yankees' control, the updated package could include Taylor clone Greg Golson, Eaton and Brian Mazone for Pettitte."

Even though Petitte is not under Yanks control, I still would give them Eaton, Jesus Sanchez and Carlos Monasterios.

AWH - In re: Joy Luck Club

I was friends with one person in a very minor part in the film, who was good friends with the Tan family. A couple years ago they sent an autographed copy of a children's book Amy Tan wrote to my daughter.

Tell your spouse I think she's right about the movie.

Truth - Right now this team isn't even "treading" water. Now maybe they can wait until the later part of this offseason (since it looks like it will stretch into January) and sign some very useful players to reasonable contracts but more likely be left with leftovers.

Andy, I neglected to say that it was not the first such viewing.

That was the "suffer" part.

It was great seeing that division clinching game on TV tonight. Two thoughts coming out of it:

1) Jimmy Rollins basket catch gets more incredible with each viewing. If everyone wasn't so nervous in the crowd and it didn't get overshadowed by the double play the legend of it would be much more now.

2) Pedro Feliz gets perhaps the most important hit during the regular season. Now this is up for debate, but think about it. If we don't get that insurance run and they tie the game on Lidge's first blown save of the season it could be completely demoralizing to everyone. It could be domoralizing enough to lose that game and then Sunday. And hey, he got the hit against a righty.

How long till opening day?

does anyone know what happened that other blog "philliesnation?" I keep getting an error message


Thanks and I certainly agree with you. You see how frustrating is with this team. To get things done sometimes you have to be creative. The Phils cannot go head-to-head with the Yanks on Lowe (who can?). And they won't get inti a bidding war with any team over any player.

They sign players who'll play for their price, not the players'.

I said earlier, De Rosa is a nice versatile player. But he's not Burrell. And though he hit 21 w/87RBI, that's not his norm. To get only him form the Cubs for Happ and whomever is way too high a price. For Kendrick straight-up maybe.

Here's something else to consider. Why help the Cubs? That makes no sense at all. Let them do their own work, Don't help broker a deal for them where they get the prize.

One final thing, and this is for every poster here. I lnow you can't worry about what the Mets or anyone else does. As a GM you have to worry about what YOU do to make your team better. The Mets plugged a big hole with K-Rod. Minaya had to. Everyone knew he had to. He did it. So what. That story is over.

The Phils have holes to fill as well but the only thing they'll have to show for these meetings is Manuel's 1-year extention (which didn't have to be at this time, Cholly wasn't going anywhere) and a possible Rule 5 pick. So once again phans we get all fired up over nothing. Because, since Jr. got the job, that's what he's done to improve the team - nothing.

Len: Feliz came through in the clutch a lot of times this season and in the post-season. He isn't the answer at third base, but he's still much better than Wes Helms.

Think Jeff Kent has any interest playing 2B for two months while Utley recovers then taking a backseat as a utility infielder on the right side of the infield when Utley returns? He gives us a legitimate option from the ride side of the plate and I'm sure he'd love another shot at a WS Title before he calls it a career.

I would've thought So's career would've been over after the season he had.

Yo, new thread

Minor nit: Carlos Febles was a 2B, not SS. I had the "pleasure" of living in KC when "Dos Carlos" were struggling to make it at the ML level.

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