Pending arbitration will loom over Amaro in Vegas

Baseball's Winter Meetings start tomorrow in Las Vegas, representing the first, tough leg for new GM Ruben Amaro Jr. It may be nothing compared to the land mines he’s going to face in January.

While Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard are ready to cash in, the two situations met with little trepidation from anyone thus far are the pending deals for Shane Victorino, arb-eligible for the very first time, and fellow outfielder Jayson Werth, following a season in which he became an everyday player.

If you’re looking for two players who could be chomping at the bit to start making the kind of money they probably deserve, look no further. Vic, 28, first broke into the league in 2003 as a Rule 5er and is has grown into a face of the franchise. The team’s batting champion (.293/.352/.447) was a post-season force and earned his first Gold Glove Award following the season. Mixing speed, power, hitting and defense, he’s a top 15 National League outfielder, easily. For every promotional giveaway and jersey sold that bears his name, it’s another reminder how he earned a near minimum MLB salary last season.

As for Werth, a sure-fire bet for a starting job in '09, the 29-year-old is surely ready for the kind of financial security granted to comparable players in the same stage of their careers. In 475 plate appearances, he hit .273/.363/.498 (121 OPS+) with 24 homers and 20 steals, nearly identical production as Alfonso Soriano. While Soriano works on his 8-year, $136 million deal, Werth, with his wrist injury now just a distant memory, has been season-to-season and earned a mere $1.7 million in 2008.

Consider this and one can begin to understand where the non-offers to Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer came from. And so begins the winter of our discontent ...

Dec. 8-11: Winter meetings, Las Vegas.
Dec. 12: Last day for teams to offer ‘09 contracts to unsigned players.
Jan 5-15: Salary arbitration filing.
Jan. 20: Exchange of salary arbitration figures.
Feb. 1-21: Salary arbitration hearings, Phoenix.

Comments

[GM-Carson]

I understand financial constraints, as most of us deal with them every day, but the Phils just made a buttload of extra money this season, so it's ridiculous that we're losing players and gaining nothing...except Mike Koplove.

[NEPP]

Don't bash Mike "Cy Young" Koplove. He's a heck of a pickup.

At least we won a WS.

[J. Weitzel]

Uneventful weekend for Phillies news. The only Phils-related observation is that Kenny Albert, who called the Eagles game for Fox, looks like the lovechild of Ruben Amaro and Greg Dobbs.

[NEPP]

So what happens in the long shot scenario that the Phillies aren't able to resign Moyer and then get outbid for Lowe, Sheets, or Burnett?

We could be hurting if that scenario plays out.

[jr]

According to Yahoo sports,the Phils have made their move.
What’s new: Chase Utley had hip surgery last month and could miss a month or more of the Phillies’ championship defense. They traded for John Mayberry, a big man who just might be built for that little ballpark. He could see some time in left field.

[MG]

Vic is going to be really interesting. Looked because I was curious and Vic indeed was 15th last year in OPS among all OFs in the NL. Now granted the overall offensive talent in the NL among OFs is down a bit but that is pretty still impressive.

Fact is that if you factor in his defense and speed, Vic is indeed in the top 15 among OFs in the NL. Maybe even top 10 last season. You could even make the argument that after Beltran, Victorino is the next best CF in the NL when you consider his all-around game.

Now this is just complete speculation, but I am willing to bet that Vic isn't going to wait to get paid until though his MLB service time is fairly limited/Phils control him for another 3 years including 2009.

Given this fact, I am willing to bet that Vic wants a pretty big payday (say $5-$6M next year but that is total speculation) and I don't know if the Phils are going to accommodate him. In fact, I could easily see this develops in a case like Howard but on a cheaper scale.

Say the Phils only offer $2-$3M and Vic counters with $4-$5M and ultimately it goes to arbitration. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Phils have 3 players go to arbitration this year.

[MG]

What I meant what that I wouldn't be surprised if the Phils have 3 players go to actual arbitration hearings and generative some negative press/publicity among the fanbase and press.

[Len39]

There is no doubt that Victorino and Werth have earned big raises. You have to wonder if Burrell's money will just go to them and a Jay Payton type. I'm still holding out hope that they are going to use Burrell and Moyer's money for Lowe and a raise for Cole Hamels. I guess that still doesn't take into account the raises for Victorino, Werth, Blanton, Madson, Durbin and I think I'm missing a couple. Plus they will still need someone to replace Burrell.

Any chance of a surprise Ryan Howard trade?

Also, I believe Jimmy Rollins contract only has two years left. Is that something to be concerned about now?

[Sophist]

Vic was 4th among NL CF in EqA last year (Beltran, McClouth, Kemp, Vic.) Among NL RF with 400 or more PA, Vic was 7th in OPS+ (Beltran, McClouth, Ankiel, Edmonds, Ross, Cameron.)

Werth was 5th among all NL RF (Ludwick, Giles, Ethier, Nady, Werth.) Among NL RF with 400 or more PA, Werth was 5th in OPS+ as well (Ludwick, Giles, Ethier, Hawpe.)

[Sophist]

hold on. I think those EqA ranks are off. the OPS+ ones are right, though.

[Rich]

Gotta keep this P train going, the Phillies brass act as they aren't making money lately.. even when they've raised ticket prices again.

I gotta believe they spend a little now and stop being perceived as 'Grinch' they way they are holding that money bag so tightly.

[MG]

- "[Amaro] couldn't really put a percentage on it," Amaro said ambivalently.

What are greater odds: Amaro showing up to the Winter League meetings in a Hawaiian shirt or resigning Burrell? I go with Amaro in a Hawaiian shirt.

- Rivera has all the making of the players the Phils would acquire in the mid-to-late 1990s. A FA who comes at a relatively cheap price due to injury concerns.

While he might be a decent stop solution for a year or two, it is just as likely that he struggles to stay on the field and give them average production.

[AWH]

"Any chance of a surprise Ryan Howard trade?"

It must be mental telepathy, Len. About an hour ago I was thinking about that very same thing.

I guess it would (MOTO) depend on what the Phils got in return, but I doubt it will happen now if they are going to try to make another run. Not after them apparently, up to this point, letting Burrell move on. I don't think the offense would tolerate the reduction on power.

As far as JRoll is concerned, by the last year of his contract, I'll speculate and say, that they'll wait to see whether Freddy Galvis is going to be a less expensive alternative.

Besides, the "window" may have shut by then.

[gino]

I'm a little concerned about the No. 5 spot in the lineup. The Phils used a pretty effective LF latoon in '93 with Milt Thompson and Pete Inclavelia, but I think they mostly batted sixth or seventh. With Feliz and Ruiz in the lineup, that's not an option for the left fielder (s) on this club. And I'd rather keep Werth and his walks and speed at the top of the lineup.

[clout]

Report out that the Chisox traded Jermaine Dye for Homer Bailey. Bailey has a sky high ceiling if he can improve his command. This has the potential to be another Kenny Williams special along the lines of getting Carlos Quentin for Cris Carter, Danks for McCarthy and Gavin Floyd for Freddy Garcia.

[Alby]

Gino: Depends on who they get for left, of course, but Werth could move to 5th against LHP, assuming Vic bats 2nd. No sense worrying about that before spring, though. I think you're saying what others are saying, albeit in a different way: It's not easy to replace The Bat. Whoever plays LF will have to hit a ton to even get to the level where his (theoretical) superior fielding and baserunning make up the difference.

This is something the Burrell bashers don't seem to understand. I (and Clout) aren't insisting Burrell be re-signed. We recognize his shortcomings. But when all is said and done, even if you get a better fielder/runner, he's going to have to replace most of Burrell's bat to equal his value. I'm all for it. But who? Because I don't see that as an easy find, and I'm not going to be happy with Gabe Kapler.

[MG]

Bailey for Dye? Certainly clear that the White Sox are clearly in rebuilding mode next year. Also have to think a bit of the moves were payroll-related too. If the Sox move Dye, they will have removed close to $30M off their payroll by moving Swisher, Vasquez, and Dye.

[AWH]

MLBtraderumors has an addition debunking the Bailey/Dyetrade.

[vegas]

Will the winter meetings be the closest we get to a major league team here?

Vic and Werth had a huge part in this WS run. At one point they were competing for the same starting job and we forgot who Jenkins was a until Game 5. They should each get a few years locked up.

Howard should have one more year with the Phils before he is considered as trade material.

[Dave X]

The Phils should move to lock these guys up long term. They should age well and won't be as expensive as other players comparable in value.

[EastFallowfield]

From the AP:

Twenty-four free agents were offered arbitration by their former teams on Dec. 1, and Darren Oliver (Angels) and David Weathers (Cincinnati Reds) were the only two to accept.

[Will]

Stupid question: What does Jason's description of Dec. 12th mean, exactly?