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Friday, December 12, 2008

Comments

One other note I forgot about the Charlie Manuel interview on XM Radio today...

He sounds excited about being able to work with John Mayberry Jr. He says the guy has tons of potential but a problem with a long swing. He sounds pretty confident that he (and other coaches) can help him through that, but there wasn't a suggestion he'd be up with the club next year.

While I would have preferred we just resign Burrell instead, at least in Ibanez we paid for talent. Everyone wants to point out his deficiencies, which is fine, but it would be unfair to ignore that the guy has posted ERA+'s of 125, 121, 124 in the last 3 seasons. That's a pretty darn good hitter right there.

CJ: I don't think he'll make the big club next year, but that's a trade I like a lot.

Brian G: That would make him a pretty good pitcher ;-)

I think Ibanez is a very talented hitter. But it be shortsighted to not be concerned about his age and the length of this deal.

Brian G: For the 50th time, not a single poster here has ever questioned Ibanez's credentials as a hitter. He is just a terrible fit for this ballclub because he's a lefty who can't hit lefties and no upgrade on defense.

Re Ibanez -
I was scared to death by Pat's 2008 2nd half, and I think that Amaro/Gillick were, too.
I can't say that I'm an expert on Ibanez (like a lot of us, I've read up on him over the last 24 hrs), but he doesn't seem to go through the extreme hot/cold swings like Pat does.
If you take Pat out of the mix, and concede that Manny wasn't gonna happen, the Phils could not have done much better to fill the LF need.

clout: Does that make Amaro 3 for 4?

Golson for Mayberry
Chan Ho Park signing
Jarmillo for Paulino
Raul Ibanez signing

For those who didn't get BAP's Gordon analogy and are hung up on the injury thing: The analogy isn't about injury. It's about the final 2 years of a 3 year contract being no good. And if you want to bet that Ibanez doesn't lose anything at ages 38 and 39, I'd love to take the other side of that bet.

Bonehead: Would you like to place a little bet on Burrell's 2009 season results?

CJ: It does in my book. Although is the Park deal done?

The Cincy Inquirer says the Reds are going to call PtB's agent... but they also suggest he may be too expensive for them.

clout: You're right... it's not yet done with Park.

CJ: I meant to say this on the other thread but I like the Marcus Thames idea, assuming he's not too expensive.

Capuano and James don't work because both had arm surgery last season. But Tim Redding is interesting to me.

clout - you seem to be in a wagering mood.

Do you mean Burrell 2009 vs. Ibanez 2009
or
Burrell stats over/under?

There's been no press release on Ibanez. Is it just the pending physical?

I'll take a long shot in the dark and say that Burrell puts up a line of around the following next year:

.250-.260 AVG, .365-385 OBP, 27-32 HR, 95-100 RBI

Anyone want to disagree?

Also, can someone explain why in today's DN scouting coordinator Mike Ondo is quoted as saying Robert Mossbacher "has a power arm"?

The guy's K/9 rates are abysmal. It's like saying Kyle Kendrick has a power arm.

Signing Tim Redding would be good if only to prevent us from having to face him...how many no-no's would he throw in split-squad games in the Spring though? That could have a negative effect on the team's confidence during the Spring.

Shot in the dark: Lazy writing and lack of research?

Bonehead: Your earlier post suggested that you think Burrell is headed for a down season in 2009. That's what I'm happy to bet on. But if you want a matchup with Ibanez, how about OPS vs. LHP? I'll take that wager too.

clout: Sounds like the Brewers will likely bring Capuano back anyway.

"And if you want to bet that Ibanez doesn't lose anything at ages 38 and 39, I'd love to take the other side of that bet."

See Gary Sheffield and Luis Gonzalez for a couple of excellent cases in point.

NEPP: Hagen wrote it, but what puzzled me is that Ondo said it. One would presume the scouting coordinator would have a mild clue what he was talking about.

Of course he may have been talkling about Mossbacher's left (non-throwing) arm.

clout: I know Mike Ondo- leave him alone. I don't get that particular statement either though.

Clay Hensley and Gary Majewski were both non-tendered. I might give their agents a call and see if they'd come in on a minor league deal. Majewski moreso though. He was a pretty good reliever before he struggled with some arm issues in 2006 when he got traded to the Reds. If he's healthy he mght return somewhat to his previous form which would be ok.

NEPP: If there's anything close to a sure thing, it's Burrell's stats. He's been remarkably consistent in his final numbers, although that would be a shock to anyone who reads Beerleaguer posts.

Its funny that you mention both of those BAP as both DID see significant declines away from their career numbers at Age 38 and 39...do you have a better example perhaps?

This was Sheffield's Age 39 season if you'll recall and he was brutal this year.

Or were you throwing both out there as examples of guys who DID decline...your post is a bit confusing.

****NEPP: If there's anything close to a sure thing, it's Burrell's stats. He's been remarkably consistent in his final numbers, although that would be a shock to anyone who reads Beerleaguer posts****

You won't get an argument out of me...Burrell was my favorite player on the team till now...now I guess Utley is.

NEPP: I think he was agreeing with clout.

NEPP - I'll take the under on the midpoint for each one of your four Burrell stats:
under .255 BA
under .375 OBP
under 29.5 HR
under 97.5 RBI

I'm guaranteed to win at least 3 of the 4 wagers.

(Note: I am currently enjoying my Crown on the rocks. Whenever I bet in the Trop Poker Room while enjoying adult beverages, I get decimated.)

Truth: Majewski had arm surgery, no? Last year was his first year back and he was awful. they say it takes two years usually. He might be worth a flier as he's still just 28. I'm also less inetrested in Hensley, who never regained his stuff after surgery.

Oh...that would make more sense then...I'll admit I'm pretty tired at this point in the day and not thinking straight.

NEPP: I was actually giving examples of 2 guys who did decline fairly quickly once they hit their late 30s. But you're right. My post was a bit confusing.

I think the Reds would be a good fit for Pat. They could use a veteran righty bat in their lineup and they're used to horrible defense in LF.

I won't mind if he signs there...they're not a rival (at least not since the late 70s.)

To BAP: they were both excellent examples. Both were very good and then suddenly hit the wall all at once. OPS+'s going from the 120-130 range to 80-100...big dropoff from a middle of the order bat.

This might help your indigestion a bit on Ibanez: 4 out of the 5 seasons he was in Seattle he hit over .300 on the road compared to around 25-30 points lower at home. Now I'm not implying that he'll magically hit 30 HRs in CBP (I'm not that stupid) but there is a possibility that his offense will improve significantly oon getting out of that massive pitchers park and its 96 park rating and into our 103 park rating in CBP. Right?, Right?

Was any of the dropoff possibly due to lack of 'riods?

Scratch that, I'm too tired (I was stupidly looking at the stats wrong) Just ignore the entire last post.

clout: It was either elbow or shoulder. I remember when the Reds traded for him there was a lot of questioning going on from teh Nats beat writers as to whether teh Reds were actually watching Majewski since his velocity was declining and he looked like he was obviously battling an arm injury. I remember the Reds gave up a pretty decent package in all that too.

He seems like a good Value Village guy. Might come fairly cheap and has a pretty decent upside considering the two year thing and the age. If he doesn't pan out- so what. But if he does, it's a decent signing.

Takashi Saito was non-tendered...might be interesting if his arm his fully healed.

clout: I agree on Hensley... his control seems shot since the surgery on his torn labrum.

Some big salary-reduction trade is in the works, isn't it?
If you add $7.5M for Jaime, and the $10M for Ibanez, and sign all the arb/tender players, the Phils 2009 payroll will be $135M or so.

That won't happen, will it?

Some thoughts on today's posts (multiple threads):
I like the idea of seeing what it would take to sign Thames. If the Phils struggle against lefty starters, he could be a possible part-time platoon player. Even if he didn't do that, it would still be nice to have legit RH power coming off the bench.

I agree with the posters who believe that Howard is likely to be traded. With Ibanez now in the fold, could Ryan be traded this off-season? He would command at least two young pitchers and a positional player. He still has arb. years left so almost every team would be able to trade for him. No thoughts on who he would go to or who they should get for him, but the pieces appear to be lining up for a trade.

Bonehead: The best the Phils can likely do to shed payroll is to deal Stairs ($1M salary), which is likely, and Eaton (to anyone who will pay ust $1M of his $8M salary), which is unlikely.

Von - Re Howard trade - I starting to think that way also.

Howard and Marson for a young starting pitcher, and Howard's replacement (either a LFer or 1B)

Pat Burrell stats for 09

Depending on who he signs with will be a basis for his stats. If he signs with the Mets than his stats maybe a little better than 08. 30-35 95-100 RBI's/ .400 OBP (A little underrated in this category./ 15-17 assists(underrated) A lot depends on the lineup he will be in as well. We'll see. Ibanez is gonna put some numbers up in this park. Try 30 HRs 125-130 RBI's - 15 assists/

Bonehead: I'm not even suggesting adding another prospect. Howard with 3 (I think) years of arb. left is very valuable himself. Ryan alone should be able to command at least a young starter, his replacement and a lesser minor league starter.

Note: by replacement I mean an above average 1B. I don't believe his production is totally replaceable and they certainly wouldn't be able to trade him for an equal player AND pitching.

Von - I think that we're actually pretty close to agreement. Because I was thinking of a more 'MLB-ready' starter.

However, I think that I probably am placing a little less trade value on Ryan than you. I think that all other GM's will know of his deficiencies - K's, poor splits against LHP, terrible defense, declining BA/OBP stats...

Hey guys, can anyone update me on why we can't still chase a top line starter? If not Lowe, Sheets?

brett - self-imposed 2009 payroll budget

What would you guys want for Ryan Howard if we traded him right now?

What would I want?...Lincecum

What do I realistically think he would bring the Phils?...that's a good question. He can only play 1B or DH, so you would need to find a partner who has that need AND can take his salary (he will probably average $17M-$18M in arbitration over the next 3 years) AND has tradeable commodities to match the Phils needs; i.e., Ryan's replacement and pitching.
Probably a short list. Therefore, it would not be easy to find a match.......................I'll get back to you.


Bonehead: Do you have any numbers pertaining to that? Like Pre/Post arbitration raises? I'm just curious to know how much money is left for any more moves.

I just like to say that the Ibanez signing shows exactly where Mr Amaro learned to be a GM. The signing is equal parts Ed Wade and Pat Gillick.
Ed Wade- He gave big money to an aging vet and lost draft picks because of it.
Pat Gillick- Ibanez is a former Mariner.

Good to see that Mr. Amaro learns well.

@Bonehead: Totally, Lincecum would be great. I am only asking because people keep bringing saying "Since we got Ibanez are we going to trade howard?"

How many suitors are out there for him? Obviously, with a few exceptions, everybody would want him on their team but really but who could afford him? Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees -- Is that it? Do we want Ruben doing that deal?

By the way, I am a huge Gargano fan but his analysis of the Ibanez deal frustrated me so much I had to turn the radio off.

@ZT: You definitely nailed it.

Bonehead: I don't think some GM's really care about Howard's deficiencies. In the end, he is one of the elite run producers in MLB. Our thoughts are pretty close though. I think the only difference is that I want an extra pitcher, so mine's a 3-1 deal whereas yours is 2-1. Am I right?

rjm08: I haven't really looked into it. It wouldn't necessarily be two pitchers and a hitter. It would have to depend on what were offered to me. It's all just speculation on our part anyway. Right now though they would need an MLB pitcher (a good one) and adequate replacement (I explained "adequate" above) and a prospect.

Quite possible that I have him over-valued. I didn't really think about the economics of his arb. years. I'm not sure if that would effect the mid-level teams interest in him. Who knows if a mid-level team would say "what the hell, it's only 3 years, we can get rid of him whenever", or if they would think his cost for the year was to much.

brett - here is my detailed estimate of 2009 Estimated Phillies Payroll, assuming Moyer is signed, and arb/tender players are signed:

$12M Myers
$7M Hamels-est arbitration
$4.5M Blanton-est arbitration
$.4M Happ-est tender offer
$7.5M Moyer

$13M Lidge
$4M Romero
$2M Eyre
$3.5M Madson-est arbitration
$2.5M Durbin-est arbitration
$.7M Condrey-est arbitration
$.4M Kendrick-est tender offer

$.6M Ruiz-est tender offer
$.6M Paulino-est tender offer

$11M Utley
$7.5M Rollins
$5M Feliz
$15M Howard-est arbitration
$.7M Dobbs-est arbitration
$.7M Bruntlett-est arbitration

$6M Jenkins
$1M Stairs
$4M Victorino-est arbitration
$4M Werth-est arbitration
$10M Ibanez

$8.5M Eaton-dead money
$1M Gordon-2009 contract buyout
$.15M Taguchi-2009 contract buyout
$3M Thome-est remainder owed to CWS

All this adds to $135M-ish.

I think the Phils will want to reduce this figure, not acquire Lowe/Sheets to increase it.

@Von: What was the Dodgers' trade that Eskin (if I remember correctly) was spreading -- Kemp, Kershaw, Loney?

Really, it's just a fantasy question, I am not proposing we trade him. I also doubt the Ibanez move had anything to do with Howard.

I highly recomend Stoudts' Double IPA.

rjm - curious, what did Gargano say about Ibanez?

I like Gargano, but he analyzes baseball like a 10-yr-old.

ZT - Best post of the day.

@Bonehead: He was being a 10 year old, it was just based on BA and RBI, just bad analysis. The callers didn't help the situation, as they rarely do.

There is absolutely zero chance the Phils would trade Howard. That would take balls of steel and largely end up a disaster as one of the hallmarks the past 25 years has been that they usually end up with a pu pu platter when they trade a valuable player.

If the Ibanez and likely Moyer signing indicate anything, this offseason was about maintaining the status quo. Will have to see how that turns out.

What happened to those "Park close to signing" rumors that were everywhere on Thurs. and Friday?

ZT - Wow, I was still holding out hope that the Ibanez signing was just one piece of some genious master plan by Amaro. But your post really brought me back to earth.

rjm08 - Typical. Besides a basic recap of the game, you don't ever hear much of merit/insight about baseball on WIP.

Anyone else notice the Wigginton was non-tendered? He'd be a good righty bench/injury replacement for Utley/Feliz...
add him and a starter and I believe the roster is set.

MG - Then do you believe that the Phils will carry a $135M payroll in 2009?
If not, then someone's big salary has to go.

"Unless, of course, Ibanez gets hurt right out of the box. Then it could be like the Pavano contract."

Good point. And maybe he'll pass the physical even though he's injured - making it like the Garcia signing.

Sheece.

Posted by: Phlipper | Friday, December 12, 2008 at 07:55 PM


phlipper, once again, your lack of a sense of humor has rendered you incapable of recognizing tongue-in-cheek comments.

Bonehead: Thank you!
Phils FO: No thanks.

I don't understand how every year the FO treats the offseason as though the Phils are a small market team hoping to make the playoffs. We are Philly! We are WFC!!!

How do you not make a significantly big move?? I think most everyone here would agree that Ibanez is not a significant improvement.

I just wanted one big name starter. Now it's gonna be ticky tacky pick-ups.

Boo.

I do not want to trade Howard. Just wanted to make that very clear. Just saw it posted at some point today and gave it a little outside of the box thought to it. I actually think that Howard's K's (sounds like a fan group) will annoy me less this year since another whiff (Ptb) no longer follows him in the line-up.

@MG: His projections seem fair if we keep the team (+resigning moyer) as it is.

Sorry, I meant bonehead.

I wonder how much it would take to pick up Saito? He's been elite the past 2 years--which I guess raises a big red flag when he gets non-tendered. Still, worth a look?

ZT, great post!

Bonehead, you might be a little high on some of your arb estimates, but your point is well taken.

The Phillies have probably reached their payroll limit.

Funny, but I would have preferred a good starting pitcher to Ibanez. IMO, with a VV RH platoon in left, it would have improved the team more.

AWH: I also would rather have the SP. I guess the FO thought that any option was to expensive. I would think that a 1 year flyer on Randy Johnson (that's all he wants) would be ok. I would much rather they went after Lowe. Seeing as they spent $30 million on an outfielder for their main off-season expenditure, was there ever any chance they would spend $60 million on Lowe?

Bonehead - Your probably right. Your arbitration figures might be a bit high but it does look like this payroll will be $125-$130M next year if you include Eaton, buyouts, and the seemingly never-ending money to the ChiSox for Thome.

How could payroll be all the way up to $135 just from Ibanez + Moyer + raises?

Wasn't '08's payroll around $105? Ibanez, based on his avg. salary, would be about $4 mil. cheaper than Burrell. Moyer will essentially be making what he actually earned last year in salary + incentives if he signs for 2/$15M.

Are the arb.raises really projected to cost $25M-$30M? That seems a bit high to me, but I haven't taken the time to run all the numbers.

I really can't blame the Phillies for not signing big-time, free agent pitchers to contracts. 5-6 year contracts for somebody over 30 is nuts, only the Yankees have that kind of money to waste.

I hope Amaro has already called Wiggington.

rjm, there are pitchers still available, which they could have signed for lesser contracts than the top tier guys are likely to get.

Someone reference Randy Johnson above as one example. Sheets might be had on a short term deal, as well as Wolf and Paul Byrd. Any of the four would probably improve the staff, with Sheets having the most upside if healthy.


Then there are also V V health questions who might be had for a song.

The list of FA pitchers is here:


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/
freeagents?positionId=15&season=2008


Take your pick, but some of them could potentially improve the team.

I already miss Burrell.

ps: I want Sheets wrapped around our rotation.

Best Name on tonight's Non-Tender List: Ty Wigginton

Best High-Risk, High-Reward Players on Non-Tender List: Takashi Saito, Chris Capuano

Mos Intriguing Crappy Player on Non-Tender List: Daniel Cabrera

Best Candidate to Replace Eric Bruntlett and become the first decent-hitting Phillies utility player in my lifetime: Aaron Miles

Best Candidate to Pitch a No-Hitter against the Phillies in 2009: Tim Redding

Most Likely Non-Tender Player to Wind up with the Phillies: Denny Bautista

Ty Wigginton was nontendered by the Astros. He would have been the perfect signing- righthanded bat, plays 3rd, 2nd, and OF, has power, and decent average. Yet we signed Ibanez that ESPN's">http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index%3fentryID%3d3765688%26searchName%3dlaw_keith%26campaign%3drsssrch%26source%3dkeith%2blaw">ESPN's Keith Law called absurd.

Nope...Bruntlett AND Condrey will be back as both were signed last night to contracts.

Oops.

Interesting names available: Ty Wigginton, Daniel Cabrera, Takashi Saito & Jonny Gomes (kills leftys w his career .879 OPS against them...good bench piece)

Saito had to be shut down at the end of last season with arm miseries. He's a strong candidate for surgery. Capauno had surgery and won't pitch because he's still recovering.

I bet a bidding war develops for Cabrera, who has strong upside if he could improve his command.

Wigginton would fit the Phils like a lambskin glove, which means there's zero chance the team will sign him.

"I can't say that I'm an expert on Ibanez (like a lot of us, I've read up on him over the last 24 hrs), but he doesn't seem to go through the extreme hot/cold swings like Pat does."

I don't know. Last year he had an August OPS of 1.154, followed by a September OPS of .593. Extreme hot, extreme cold. (May was pretty cold too - .218/.307/.366.) In 2007 he hit .184/.241/.262 in July, followed by a .374/.447/.682 August. That July is a worse month than Burrell's had in the major leagues ever.

Saito did come back after missing July and August to pitch a little bit in Sept...I hadn't heard anything other than that on him...was he shut down again after coming back? I don't remember him on the playoff roster but then they didn't have alot of save situations against us.

to clout: We won't get Wigginton since we just resigned Bruntlett...that will be the reasoning.

NEPP: He wasn't on the playoff roster. It's said that his elbow ligament is hanging on by a thread.

Tray: Please stop confusing Bonehead by posting facts.

good to know on Saito...that lowers my interest in him significantly.

NEPP: "I'll take a long shot in the dark and say that Burrell puts up a line of around the following next year:

.250-.260 AVG, .365-385 OBP, 27-32 HR, 95-100 RBI
Anyone want to disagree?"

I Disagree. HRs and RBI will be down.

He didnt get 95-100 RBIs in this lineup with the Phillies. He most likely won't find a better lineup to bat 5th. He won't play in Citizens bank park half the year so he will not get the flower basket HRs this year.

I'd give him the HR's if he signs with the REDS. The RBI's MAYBE, if he signs with the Mets and has an above avg year.


Ty Wiggington would be a perfect signing for the Phillies. He'll probably command at least 5million per though.

mikes77: Do you think the fact he batted behind Howard (146 RBI) and Utley (104 RBI) had anything to do with Burrell's RBI total? Nah. Probably not.

Yes, in a Reds lineup he'd probably have more RBI chances as he wouldn't have those 2 in front of him...and the parks are a wash for HRs at that point. Besides which, his power was on the road this year so it was a fabrication of our "bandbox"...I am so sick of that stupid word in relation to CBP.

I somehow doubt Ty Wigginton gets $5 million in this economy...just a hunch. He's a part time guy who had a good year but he's not even a full time player. Not to mention, he's never made $5 million a year. His salary in 08 was 4.3 million and he was just non-tendered.

He'll get 5 million because the Twins and Indians lost out on Casey Blake and have a need at 3rd base. Competition + Supply and demand.

Burrell didnt get the RBIs because he hit .231 w Runners on and .234 w Runners in scoring position.

Those numbers have nothing to do with Ryan Howards 146 or Utleys 104.

I think Wiggington would be too expensive for us, but would welcome the addition.

Interesting to kick the tires on Gomes though. he would be real cheap and can be the RHed bat off the bench with some pop.

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