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Wednesday, December 10, 2008

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The latest from Corey Brock at MLB.com:

"The Phillies are also rumored to be interested in DeRosa, and they have some pitching to offer the Padres in a multiteam deal.

J.A. Happ, a 26-year-old right-hander, is thought to be high on the Padres' list of players they like. He was 8-7 with a 3.60 ERA in 2008 at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. San Diego might also have interest in 24-year-old Kyle Kendrick, who was 11-9 with a 5.49 ERA with the Phillies last season.

According to sources, the Phillies might want San Diego outfielder Scott Hairston as they go about trying to fill the void left by free agent Pat Burrell."

For more on Scott Hairston, click here.

Latest rumore: Phils may have interest in Scott Hairston from San Diego in the Peavy deal. Ladies and Gentleman, your replace for Pat Burrell: Scott Hairston.

Well, Hairston's slugging pct is .778 and OPS is 1.111 at CBP. Of course, only 18 ABs...

EFF: Well, posters here have defended lineup choices on smaller sample sizes than that!

Hairston.. first reaction is.. yuk.

84 strikeouts in only 326 ABs

And a .312 career OBP. Oh can we please get him!!! please please please.

As a platoon? With Dobbs? Is that the entire plan? Find a righty to platoon with Dobbs/Jenkins?

Lowe to the Yankees looks to be all but done. Hopefully the market for Jamie Moyer is about to dry up and he can crawl back to us for 2/16 mil or less.

Depending on the price that the Padres wanted, I wouldn't mind. He's cheap & has experience at LF & CF.

Of course, that's assuming that he's being brought in to be the 5th outfielder.

Just thinking about this guy in LF makes me queasy. This would obviously be in addition to DeRosa... right? right!?

Ok, so our off-season speculation has gone from Matt Holliday to Garrett Atkins to Jermaine Dye to Derek Lowe to Mark DeRosa to Scott Hairston. I think we're getting warm.

@bap, I hate to see who is next.

I'm starting to warm on DeRosa but Hairston is a joke even in a platoon. I wonder if the Phils can get Marquis (with some of his money paid), Felix Pie and Derosa for Happ, another pitcher & either Coste or Jaramillo. Then Peavy to the Cubs and our guys & Cub prospects to the Fathers.

Marquis could EASILY be flipped by the Phils if Chicago is paying some of his salary or kept if we can't resign Moyer. DeRosa is short term in left & Pie is long term. I read they dangled Pie to the Padres before. They should be doing anything they can to get Peavy.

Also, I'd love a Japanese reliever to root for.

to be more fair, Hairston's line comes out of Petco, where .248/.312/.479 was good for a 115 OPS+ last year.

As a long-time Phillies fan, I have developed a sort of sixth sense, which enables me to sift through all the BS rumors and immediately recognize when we have finally hit upon one which is valid. My sixth sense is never wrong. It knew the Joe Blanton rumor was serious as soon as it was first mentioned. It knew the same with Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez and Pedro Feliz and Adam Eaton. That sixth sense tells me that Scott Hairston is Burrell's replacement. And like I said, my sixth sense has never been wrong yet.

Home 60 177 22 48 12 2 9 18 15 45 2 1 .271 .333 .514 .847
Away 52 149 20 33 6 1 8 13 13 39 1 0 .221 .287 .436 .723
Splits for Hairston.. it's not the ballpark.

bap: Nice point.

He has a .287 OBP on the road? Like, seriously? And we want to put him in our lineup? In LF, a position where the player needs to be a good hitter to justify being out there? Seriousy?

Like seriously, thus my Yuk reaction.

Out of idle curiosity, I checked out Scott Hairston's minor league numbers, as I always think that minor league numbers are a pretty good indication of what a player might eventually become in the majors. I was actually surprised to find that, in 1806 minor league ABs, he has a career average of .322 and a career OPS of .967. Granted, 3 of those seasons came in the hitter-friendly PCL, but still . . .

Hairston will turn 29 early next year, so he isn't that old. Is it possible this guy could be another Jayson Werth? Just asking.

Considering he's put up consecutive OBPs of .312 and .313, in his only two seasons with extensive playing time, I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying he's not Jayson Werth.

Werth had the excuse of being hurt...what's Hairston's excuse?

He's not even the best outfielder with the last name Hairston.

With all the f'n rumors, you think something would get done besides a Manuel extension. I enjoy reading rumors, but not if none of them never come true. This offseason is becoming tiresome in a hurry, lets go Rube!

Lol NEPP

bap minor league numbers can be very deceiving. All they can tell you is if a guy even deserves a shot at playing in the bigs. Unless Hairston starts spending quality time with Barry Bond's personal training staff there is no way he is going to be in Werth's league.

BAP - I like your list. Typical Phils' FO BS progression. I wouldn't mind them saying "look we have a number of arbitration-eligible players and we aren't able to go after a starter pitching who will command a salary like Lowe." I would be a bit disappointed but understand.

Instead, you get this BS the past several years where the Phils somehow get mentioned with numerous premier FAs. This year it was with Lowe. Frankly I get tired of this cr@p and with Amaro it will reach a crescendo due to his arrogance/ultimate company man attitude.

Reports are that the Burnett contract will most likely exceed Carlos Zambrano's. That deal was 5/91.5.

I know BUrnett is another guy people have bemoaning we won't sign becasue the front office is cheap. Again to all of you bashing the front office for sport I ask this question: Would you do that deal? Is a guy who has injury issues worth an average of over 18 million a year? Especially if that guy is going to be 32 to start the year? Especially if he wants 5 guaranteed years?

Still have to wait and see but I would say this theme offseason will be Steve Miller Band, "Take the Money and Run" as the payroll will modestly increase (say Opening Day will be around $110-$115M depending on the Thome money) but laughed when I heard beat guys/others say this payroll was going to be well north of $120M. Just not the Phils' FO style.

If Burnett if is getting 5 yrs/$91.5, then this market is crazy and the owners aren't as poor as they are crying out to be. That or just a case of making yet another bonehead move. Anything more than 4 yrs/$60M on Burnett is pushing it and even then likely to underachieve.

Empire Strikes Back -

So Sabathia got his money and the MLB players union is more than happy too. So much for the Yanks going the player development route and not spending money by the boatload.

I'm a big fan of Burnett signing a big money contract as long as it's not in Philly. I'd love to see him sign with ATL or NY and go Pavano on them.

Scott Hairston wouldn't be a terrible platoon partner. His OPS+ vs. LHP was 126 last year in 152 PA's.

I'm not sure how serious this interest is... but I'm not just going to dismiss him out of hand.

After an okay 2004 debut at age 24, he didn't get more than a cup of coffee until 2007 when he split time between Arizona and San Diego and posted an OPS+ of 94. As a part-time player with SD last year, he posted an OPS+ of 115.

His OPS+ as a starter last year was 124 but it was dragged down by his terrible numbers as a pinch hitter. His OPS+ in Citizen Bank Park last year was a whopping 217! He was 4 for 12 with 2 HR's and a double.

Gordon Edes reports on Derek Lowe for Yahoo! Sports:

"The Yankees and Phillies, however, can afford him. Lowe, whose last contract was for four years and $36 million from the Dodgers, is seeking a five-year deal. The Yankees and Phillies both are more interested in a four-year contract in the $65 million range, and the team that steps up with the fifth year could land the 35-year-old."

If you believe the report, you can hardly argue the Phils are low-balling him and it certainly sounds serious.

The Hairstons (Scoot and Jerry)are a joke!. Phils made a better offer to Lowe than the Yanks and Boras is waiting for offers from the Mets and Bosox to drive the price up.

Truth Injection: I wouldn't go near that deal with Burnett with a 10 foot pole. I said earlier, a deal like that with Burnett is a lottery ticket. Nothing more. Good luck!

Steve Phillips on ESPN just said that the Phillies would move Happ or Carrasco AND Donald for Derosa. NO THANKS!!!!!!

CJ: Yeah I don't get all the Burnett hype. I'd rather take a shot with Sheets on a two year deal.

Len39: Yeah, I'm hoping Steve Phillips was just running his mouth to try and sound like he knew what he was talking about, or something.

If the Cubs-Padres-Phils deal is still sticking on Marquis, it still makes sense for the Phils to take DeRosa and Marquis in exchange for Kendrick and Eaton. No one can tell what a change of scenery might do for Marquis and/or Eaton. It's a crap shoot and where better to shoot craps than in Las Vegas. The advantage the Cubs would have by accepting this deal is that they would have the chance to salvage Eaton, a pitcher who was once thought to be the real thing, get rid of a pitcher who has grown too expensive and not have to pay another team half of Marquis' 2009 salary. Marquis was once a hot ticket, and just as the Cubs may be able to turn Eaton around, Rich Dubee may be able to turn Marquis into a productive part of the starting rotation or a long relief man. The important benefit for everyone concerned is that such maneuvering would finally get the trade done and make 3 teams happy.

Steve Phillips is out of his mind. 2 of our top prospects for a utility infielder? Wouldn't let it worry you Len

Doc: The whole point of dealing Marquis is to get rid of at least $6M in salary. I can't imagine they'd take Eaton back in any deal.

CJ - I understand the Phils would be hard-pressed to outspend the Yanks and a 5-year deal is really long for a guy in his mid-30s.

Still wonder though if the Phils have gone beyond 3 yrs and if they do sign Lowe the Phils would have to most likely move some significant payroll to accomplish it.

If I were the Phils I would:
- Sign Lowe to a 4 yr (slightly higher price tag)
- Make the DeRosa/Marquis deal (especially if the Phils only have to give up one pitching prospect in Happ and if the Cubs kick in half of Marquis salary).
- Move Myers for a right-handed OF bat.
- If money left-over, added another veteran arm on a 1-yr deal to round out the pen.

MG: I'm not convinced the Phils will move salary if they sign Lowe. I honestly believe this team would accept a slightly higher payroll this year knowing that next year a number of salaries come off the books.

Still willing to bet the Phils make their "big move" this offseason via a trade and not FA.

As JW sites, they have some pieces other teams seem to be interested it is just tbat the Phils also have several need areas to fill right now including starting pitching, outfield, utility infielder, and bullpen.

Odd day.. it's past six and I don't think anyone has called anyone else an idiot yet.. where are gion and clout??

CJ - I wouldn't mind the Phils moving Myers while he has some value and could help them get a bat. His 2nd half performance last year redeemed his value a bit and $12M for a guy who is capable of being a frontline starter should solicit some decent offers.

Lazarus: You're an idiot.

MG: I'm not saying I'm against moving Myers. I'm just not sure it would be necessary if we signed Lowe. I'd much rather have Hamels, Myers, Lowe, Blanton, Happ than try to fill Myers' spot with someone else.

It's obvious I was kidding when I called Laz an idiot, right? I suppose I could have added an ;-)

Thanks for return me to a feeling of normalcy CJ. :)

Roadmap named manager of the Reading Phils. Frankly I don't know anything about him besides what I read in the Drago article in the Reading Times but hopefully it is an improvement over Forbes and Filer

Both were horrendous and likely didn't do much for the growth of Phils' prospects at Reading the past 3 years. Talked to a friend who still lives in Reading and attends lots of games. He basically said the team was pretty threadbare at the end of last year but they also basically stop hustling/playing hard for good portion of the 2nd half of the season.

Any time a minor league team quits on their coach, that is a really damning inditement because you figure almost everybody on the roster is hustling to move up/essentially try to have a shot in Philly.

Plus, AA is arguably the most important team in a minor league system because hitters start to see better caliber pitchers with a more varied offspeed repetiore and better caliber offspeed stuff. Hopefully Roadmap contributes to the Phils have some more success at Reading and contributing to the development of some of the hitters coming up from Lakewood.

About moving Myers, well it looks like he's worked out his problems at this point (at least the pitching ones) and it's hard to imagine how the Phillies would replace him without getting Lowe and that's not looking like more than an outside shot.

"- Move Myers for a right-handed OF bat."

Magglio Ordonez? Holliday?

Moving Myers doesn't seem timely when we expect to lose Moyer and perhaps Happ. Losing those three and adding Lowe and Marquis leaves us a pitcher short. And I suppose Lowe + Marquis is better than Myers + Happ, but the latter two are much younger and Myers isn't very much worse than Lowe. In fact it might be wiser to put Lowe's money and years into Myers, as you'd have some $ left over.

BAP: Re your question about Hairston:
"Is it possible this guy could be another Jayson Werth?"

Not a chance.

My boss' son, Marcus Gwyn, pitched for the Rakuten Golden Eagles this past season. They have renewed his contract for this year. My boss has found that the translator programs have a tough time translating the Japanese writing symbols if you do more than just a few. The Japanese symbol for the Phillies is three European letters overstruck on top of each other. These letters are: W, F, & C!

Hearing Scott Hairston's name mentioned as a possible Phil acquisition in the Peavy trade, makes me wonder if someone got the story wrong and is confusing Scott Hairston, who is not what the Phils need as a Burrel replacement, with Jerry Hairston Jr, who was mentioned in passing as a possible Burrel replacement a while back.

Some of the names that have been dropped as possible Burrel replacements have been poor choices as have some of the names that have been suggested as possible Utley substitutes. If the Phils can't come up with players who can at least play in the same park with Pat Burrel and Chase Utley, they should just decide that Geoff Jenkins is their everday outfielder and Greg Dobbs is their everyday second baseman. Who knows? Given enough swings, Jenkins and/or Dobbs may finally get the knack of hitting left-handed pitching and work out better for the Phils than many of the players being currently recommended. I have always liked Jenkins and Dobbs, and in all honesty, I would feel a whole lot better with Geoff Jenkins in the outfield every day than guys like the Hairstons, Baldelli, Rivera and Young. Similarly, I would feel a whole lot better with Greg Dobbs playing second base every day than guys like Punto, Cedenas or Lopez. I think it has become clear that the Phils are already thinking past an earlier notion of playing Bruntlett or Donald at second. If the Phils decided to go the Jenkins/Dobbs route, the guy with better numbers could become the everyday outfielder when Utley returns. I didn't mention Matt Stairs who I also like because I think he will be of most value to the Phils this year as a substitute outfielder and regular pinch hitter. I have previously waxed ecstatic about my ideas for a Burrel replacement and an Utley substitute, but if none of these suggestions materialize, the Phils will be lucky to have Jenkins and Dobbs to play.

Stark

Well, if that's to be believed, then we're not even in the bidding for Lowe. Strange.

Jayson Stark is now reporting that he has a source who spoke with the Phils' brass and that source says the Phils are not pursuing Derek Lowe.

It keeps getting stranger and stranger.

Doc: Jenkins as the everyday leftfielder and Dobbs at second base?

Dude, put down the blunt.

CJ: I saw that. I also read that Amaro said he had no interest in bringing Iguchi back.

Don't forget about me Doc!

Just curious? When will the WS Phillies
be invited to the Whitehouse. We know the NY
Muts/Yanks already would have been invited..

clout: It seems pretty far-fetched to me too. Hairston is older than Werth was, clearly lacks Werth's plate discipline, and posted his gaudy numbers quite a few years ago and largely in a league where offensive stats are inflated. I am just trying to find a positive angle here, because I know with 100% certainty that Scott Hairston will be a Phillie before the winter meetings are over.

bap: I laid out the positive angle for Hairston already...

His OPS+ vs. LHP was 126 last year in 152 PA's.

His OPS+ as a starter last year was 124.

His OPS+ in Citizen Bank Park last year was a whopping 217! He was 4 for 12 with 2 HR's and a double.

Sign him up!

So, the details of our Derek Lowe "dalliance" are slowly starting to emerge. Yesterday it was reported that Boras was simply using the Phillies to try to extract a better offer from the Yankees. Today it comes out that the Phillies never made an offer at all.

Let's cut to the chase. Here's what really happened. RA picked up the phone, called Scott Boras, and said, "Gee, we really like Derek Lowe but, unfortunately, we're a small-market team with lots of needs to fill. There's no way we can pay what the Yankees & RedSox would pay, but if your client is interested in taking substantially less for the honor of playing for the WFC, let's talk again." Boras promptly went to the media and said the Phillies were interested in his client. When Amaro and his minions were asked about it, they gave the obligatory "No comment" -- thereby creating an inference that the rumor must be true. As the rumor picked up steam, Boras decided to start playing it for all it's worth -- even telling the media that the Phillies had made an offer and that Lowe really liked the Phillies. As a result of all this bluffing, Boras eventually induced the Yankees to make a 5-year offer, which Lowe will accept within the next day or two.

I'm not a sports journalist and I have no sources within the organization. And, yet, I guarantee you that what I just wrote is a lot closer to the truth than any of the BS that has been circulating around the Internet.

So the Phils aren't pursuing Lowe. Given that Stark likely still has some good ties with the Philly organization, I would tend to believe this story.

Philly.com is reporting a deal for DeRosa is about to go down and we are giving up "Happ or Carlos Carrasco AND Jason Donald."

WTF?

LA Jeff:

The good news is that it's Steve Phillips reporting it.

This better not happen.

@ LA Jeff: There are no words for how unspeakably awful that deal would be.

My only hope is that Steve Phillips -- who yesterday inferred that the Tigers were shopping Prince Fielder, despite the minor complication that Fielder is a Brewer -- is just dead wrong on this one.

If true, that would be so outrageously stupid as to warrant Amaro's immediate termination.

bap: I'll join the doom-and-gloomers if that deal goes down.

We wouldn't include Carrasco in a deal for Matt Holliday and now we're dealing him for Mark DeRosa???

Not even Wade would make that deal.

Yeah it was probably just Phillips trying to sound like he knew more than he did. If Amaro made that move it would get ugly here.

Gammons reports the Yanks offered Burnett 5 years. I can't imagine them signing all three top pitchers which would leave Lowe on the outside looking in. If Stark is wrong, and all the other reports are right, then the Phils might still be a player. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

A sign of how bad the Philly newspapers have become: all the Phillies Hot Stove updates from Vegas are coming from national guys like Stark, Rosenthal, and Steve Phillips. Are the Philly beat writers even involved in gathering any information, or are they just there to pass on what Start, Rosenthal, and Phillips report? By the way, this is the 5th largest city in the country, and fan interest in baseball is higher than its ever been.

Ridiculous. This is why I come to Beerleaguer a lot more often then I go to Philly.com.

Hey Jason, two things:

1) That photo isn't Uehara. He's not left-handed :)

2) I can't believe you came to Tokyo and didn't get in touch with me! Grrrr.

CJ: So, then, it would ultimately be a three-way trade: Carrasco & Donald to the Cubs; DeRosa to the Phillies; CJ to the Doom-and-Gloomers.

Speaking for the Doom-and-Gloomers, I think you'd be a nice acquisition. We would definitely come out better than the Phillies in that trade.

Also in reference to Hairston: a guy already on the Philly roster with a comparable bat is.. Pedro Feliz. Dobbs can only platoon in one position at a time.

bap: HA!!!!!! Wait until you hear my contract demands!

Laz: Hairston would presumably platoon with Jenkins. Dobbs would remain a part time player getting a few token starts at third (there is no 3rd base platoon).

I know CJ it's just nice to dream about it.

CJ: Just don't hire Scott Boras to negotiate for you.

That said, after looking at splits long enough to make my eyes bleed, I'm not quite as down on the idea as I was initially.

I've never wanted to read the words: "The report from Steve Phillips was erroneous" so much in my life.

Spitz - In all fairness, I don't know how many of the Philly sportswriters are out in Vegas and able to stay up on the latest news.

You do bring up a good point though that all of the rumor updates/etc is really coming from the national guys though.

If Jr. makes that deal I'll go down to the Bellagio and toss him in the fountains. Unless they take Eaton and give us Marquis plus 4mm.

Laz: It'd be a pretty big roll of the dice with Hairston and one I'd rather the Phils not make. There are worse ideas out there... but not many.

You'd think that if Jayson Stark cared at all about Philadelphia that he'd be shooting down Phillip's crazy rumor as fast as he shot down the Lowe rumors. Come on, Jayson... get on the ball!!!

CJ, truly and unfortunately I can see it happening. This off-season seems to be shaping up as doing the minimum for next season and hoping Donald, Carrasco, Mayberry, Marson, etc are ready to go in the following. Which makes the trade rumor for DeRosa sound very strange indeed.

"Phillips, however, did hedge his report. 'There's a chance it could get done later today,' he said. 'Or not at all.'"

I don't know about you, but I'm voting for "not at all."

MG: That's part of the tradegy though. Vegas is actually one of the cheapest cities to travel to for business (since the flights and hotel rooms are pretty cheap compared to other big cities). The Philly papers don't value sports fans enough to send a couple guys there. These companies are so poorly managed that they should be imploded, like the car companies.

Lol great journalistic work there, next he'll be reporting that the sun will rise tomorrow.

Spitz - Newspaper/media companies are being imploded including the Tribune Co. just declaring bankruptcy. Not going to be the first or last newspaper/media company either that is doing to declare bankruptcy.

Philadelphia is trying to give away underachieving right-hander Adam Eaton.

The Phillies will deal Eaton to any team that will take on $1 million of the $9 million he is due for the final guaranteed season of a three-year contract. The Phillies want nothing in return.

Eaton was 4-8 with a 5.80 ERA this season and spent part of the year in the minors. The Phillies did not include him on the postseason roster. --Gerry Fraley

Could we get this lucky? :)

Yanks spending money like drunken sailors makes sense but if you a guy like Fuentes is getting 3 yrs/$33M maybe owners are "crying wolf" even though the economy is going to get worse and not better in 2009 at least through the first 2 quarters as the economy continues to hemorrhage jobs at a good clip.

Eaton for Peavy straight up.

If we trade Carrasco or Donald for Derosa Amaro won't live out the week.

http://csnphilly.com/pages/landing_homepage/?Breaking-Phillies-to-Make-Deal-in-an-Hou=1&blockID=20496&feedID=717

Be very afraid. The Donald/Happ rumor surfaces and a short time later, we hear that the Phillies are about to report a roster move.

Lol bap as if I wasn't worked up enough...

I'm gonna puke if we trade Happ and Donald for Derosa...I'm gonna kill someone if we trade Carrasco and Donald for Derosa.

Here's $8 million dollars...just take Eaton. Please. Not good enough? Okay, we'll throw in some Pat's Cheesesteaks, too.

I'm going to go to the liquor store just in case I need my friend Jack to help me through an idiotic move by Philly.

"What? You won't give us Derosa? What if we threw in Carrasco?"

"I don't know Ruben, Carrasco had some issues at AA this year..."

"please! We'll take on all of Marquis's salary too."

"Well..."

"Donald too."

"Okaaaayyyyy...but remember you owe us one."

Happ and Jamarillo for DeRosa and maybe somebody else. Not great but it fills a need and gives insurance for Feliz/Utley.

If the Phils grease the wheels for the Cubs to get Peavy AND have to give up Happ and another really solid prospect, then the deal stinks.

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