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Friday, December 19, 2008

Comments

That's what I get when I don't visit beerleaguer for a couple of days. I bought the DVD set for 45 bucks on Barnes and Noble but I could've got it for free here.

I'll be having a contest in the following weeks for the DVD set on my site to for all you losers out there that want a second chance.

Carson - Will I have to squeeze any family members into "onesies?"

So, if Carrasco pitches against the U.S. in the World Baseball Classic, do we root for our own country or do we root for Carrasco to throw a perfect game? To whom are we more loyal: our country or a random pitcher who just happens to wear the uniform of our favorite team?

BAP: How 'bout a complete game, no-hitter, with substantial fielding errors behind Carrasco in which the US wins?

We hope that Venezuela gets knocked out early so he doesn't pitch a lot of innings.

BAP,

It doesn't matter. All the best do not really play in it so that defeats the purpose since the Olympics doesn't have MLB guys in there due to the season, and I don't like the WBC to be honest. It is just a tune up for the real baseball season. They should leave it for the Olympics that is the only time, it really matters IMO.

How about he goes seven scoreless with nine strikeouts and the US lights up the Venezuelan bullpen?

tommyd: We don't need your negativity today. Get with MLB and embrace the WBC. Sheesh, you are so negative.

i'm liking a 80 pitch perfect game by Carrasco which forces the Padres to trade Peavy straight for him.

MPN:

This is my only topic I will be negative on. What happens if Jimmy re-injures that ankle and is out another month or two, the Phillies start slow, and everyone on Bler yells "See told you we needed Burrell and Lowe,Fire Amaro!", all due to the stupid WBC. I hate it!

tommyD: dude the WBC honors countries around the world!! Have some god damn heart and pride in your country, you are pathetic. USA WON THE REVOLUTIONARY WAR for christ sake, and all you do is complain when they try to show their national pride through the game of baseball. I dont care what stats you try to use to defend your opinion, they are all lies and dont mean anything.

Why couldn't jimmy be smart and turn down the invite like Lidge and Hamels did?????

I was thinking a 9-inning perfect game, but the U.S. scores the winning run in the 10th off a reliever.

thephaitful:

Thats what the olympics are for. Besides the "original" concept of the WBC was for the best of the world to play, but 3/4 of the ebst turn down the invitation because they want to be ready for MLB season. So whats the point?

I have pride in my country, but I would prefer for the Phillies players to be ready to go for the start of the season.

Oh, well, I have to ask Santa (my wife) for the WS DVD set.

I'm not too keen on Rollins playing in these games. I don't want him worn out or hurt for the regular season.

mvptommy: 2008 was the last time that baseball will be an Olympic sport. It has been discontinued. Besides, an Olympic team which includes guys like Terry Tiffee, Mike Koplove, and Blaine Neal isn't exactly my idea of this country's best.

It's unfortunate that most top players don't play in the WBC, but the caliber of play is still a lot better than it was at the Olympics.

"To whom are we more loyal: our country or a random pitcher who just happens to wear the uniform of our favorite team?"

Unless you personally immigrated, you are espousing loyalty to a random country where you just happened to be born. And, as Seinfeld so aptly noted, all sports fans basically root for the laundry.

I'm with Tommy on this one -- nothing but an opportunity for some of our guys to either get hurt or, for the pitchers, put too much stress on their arms by extending the season.

BAP:

True it is better than the olympics, and true as I said above MLB players don't play in the Olympics. But the point was for it to be like an All Star games, but when the WS MVP,best closer in the league and one of the leagues best hitters in Hamilton declines invites amoung other stars, then how serious can it be?

Also, when you have players that are switching and playing for countries that there parents are from instead of their own (A-Rod), that brings my hate for this to a whole new level. Because if that were the case, none of us would play for the United States unless we are Native Americans.

If you want to make it work have the players list it in their contract as an incentive so that truely the best can play, and move it to January instead of March.

PeeVee don't want to pitch in Philly. Can't postes get that thru their thick heads? And howw do you fit his $33M salary into the budget in 2013? Explain.

I agree with Tommy on this one. I love it when NBA players play in the Olymipics.
But this WBC is a made for TV event. This thing is going to be in early March when baseball players are just waking up from their hibernation - the level of play is going to be pretty bad.

Would much rather have Jimmy turning double plays with Jason Donald in spring training than playing in this contrived WBC thing.

I'll come out in support of the WBC. I think it's pretty cool, and pretty much the only international competition in the sport featuring major league players. Ok, so Rollins runs the risk of getting hurt, but he'd be playing meaningless ST games otherwise, running a similar risk. It'll be fun, and hopefully Carrasco gets a nationally televised start, that would be sweet to watch.

"Ok, so Rollins runs the risk of getting hurt, but he'd be playing meaningless ST games otherwise, running a similar risk."

Precisely. MVPTommy does have a valid point about A-Rod, though. But the solution is to cast your ire upon A-Rod, not the event. People do this kind of country-switching in the Olympics too.

Just as I hit "send" on my last post, I happened to notice the Phillies Nation link at the right which identifies Rickey Botallico as the 98th best Phillie ever. Having never counted out my own top 100, I'm not really in a position to challenge the assertion that Rickey Bottallico is the 98th best Phillie ever (though I find it hard to believe). All I can say is that the mere fact that he is on anyone's Top 100 list tells you all you need to know about why I am so habitually negative about this team. So too does the fact that the pathetic Randy Lerch was actually ranked 100th.

I like the WBC. It is way more fun to watch than a spring training game. A lot of good players do accept and you get to see some young guys from weaker countries get thrown up against the big boys. Most of the good teams have players in it, so they all have injury risks. And there is injury risk in spring training as well. I look forward to it.

Alby: Or if, say, you volunteer to serve your country in any way. But individual mileage may vary. We can't all be enlightened cosmopolitan connoisseurs of Michael Moore and Noam Chomsky, I suppose.

So is Carrasco's arm gonna fall off soon? He's been pitching non-stop since last February with Spring Training, Reading's season, VWL, maybe a month or so off and then the WBC and 09 ST..

That's a lot of work on a young arm.

I always liked it when Randy Lerch played. He hit better than he pitched and he was always up against hte other team's worst starter.

Thanks for the DVD!!!

The WBC is a great event to attend in person. I was in San Diego in 06 to watch the semis and finals. I scored tickets for this year as well. Most amazing is the intensity of the international fans. Petco was rocking for all three games.

I don't have a problem with Rollins or any other position player participating. I think having the opportunity to play meaningful games prior to the start of the season is a good thing to get Rollins going in April. Last year wasn't too bad, but generally the Phillies get off to lousy starts. If Rollins is firing on all cylinders on opening day, the Phillies will see the benefit.

BAP - I saw that Bottalico was #98 too and was kind of left wondering too. You mean to tell me that a guy like Bottalico (guy who had great stuff when he came up but a questionable ability on how to best utilize it) is really No. 98?

He only really had 3 above average seasons and that '96 season where he made the All-Star team because the rest of the team was so putrid. Think a bit of recall bias coming into play there.

Is today's outrage really about Ricky Bottalico being named the 98th best Phillies reliever of all-time?

oh i see- 98th greatest Phillie. thats different.

From a report in a Seattle newspaper:

""I have to say a number of things," Ibanez said. "Number one, with sabermetrics in general, it's a statistical probability thing," he said. "And the way they come up with the defensive measurements, or ratings, is flawed. It's as flawed as the Gold Gloves. One of the reasons is, they don't consider things like ballpark factors, defensive positioning or alignment for certain hitters."

Ibanez added that most of the people taking down the statistics that measure defense are doing so "off a television" and are "not equipped to assess talent on the baseball field.""

This is the best parody post I think I've ever read (from thephaithful):

"tommyD: dude the WBC honors countries around the world!! Have some god damn heart and pride in your country, you are pathetic. USA WON THE REVOLUTIONARY WAR for christ sake, and all you do is complain when they try to show their national pride through the game of baseball. I dont care what stats you try to use to defend your opinion, they are all lies and dont mean anything."

Juan Rivera re-signs with the Angels. It's a three year deal. No money yet. Anyone else surprised he got three years?

Well . . . in defense of Bottalico and Lerch, try this exercise when you have a half hour's free time: name 100 players who had better Phillies careers than Rickey Bottalico and Randy Lerch. Totally off the top of my head, I came up with about 30. With an additional 10 minutes of Internet research, I came up with about 20 more. If I really set about to go through 130+ years of Phillies' rosters, I would obviously find a lot more. But could I find 50 more? I don't know. Like I said before, that's all you need to know about the root cause of my pessimism.

Jon Heyman says the Mets are waiting for Boras-client Mark Teixeria to sign before engaging Boras on their top choice (Lowe) and their second choice (O. Perez). Wolf is the fall back if neither of those happen. The back end of the rotation is supposedly going to be somone like Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding or Jason Marquis.

I love the way Boston just sort of shut down the Boras tactic of revealing "how much" some "other team" is "offering" to his client. They publically said, "Well, clearly, we can't compete with that; I guess he's going there." And then every potential "there" said, "It isn't us."

Guess Tex is gonna play in Japan.

CJ - definately.

Ibanez for 3 >>> Rivera for 3

Isn't there an equal chance that Rollins will get injured playing spring training games?

Also, can we demand that Howard plays in the WBC so he can have his terrible April in March instead?

Anyone else read that thing on Ibanez? He seems to take some pride in his defense.

If the Mets get Derek Lowe I'll be really, really pissed. Lowe should be in a Phillies uniform.


По мне, вы очень неплохо пишете. Действительно интересно!

Rivera 3 years - $12.75 million. He would have made for a younger and cheaper option in left field. I think I would have been comfortable with a move like this. No use debating it now, however. In Amaro Jr. we trust?

To add to CJ's great insight from Ibanez

"He also feels that some of the people looking at the numbers have already figured him a below average defender in their minds and discount anything good that he does.

"Some of those biases that are pre-determined biases come into that mindset,'' he said. "Those are things that I'm going to have to continue to battle throughout my career. But if you go around the game, and you ask the players, you ask quality major-league scouts, you ask managers, they'll tell you I'm the type of player they want on their team.''

Obviously, the Phillies thought enough of Ibanez's outfield defense to make him an everyday fielder and pay big bucks for it.

"And if you look at the list of teams bidding for me, the ones that were the most serious tended to be in the National League,'' he said. "They didn't seem to have a problem with me playing the field.''"

Money is in on Rivera... it's 3-years, $12.75M.

Rivera is 30 years old with a career OPS+ of 106. He was coming off a career year in 2006 when he had an OPS+ of 126, hitting .310 with 23 HR and 85 RBI. Then he broke his leg and missed just about all of 2007. He started 63 games in 2008 and appeared in 26 others posting an OPS+ of just 86. Is he too old to return to the form he had before the broken leg?

"If the Mets get Derek Lowe I'll be really, really pissed. Lowe should be in a Phillies uniform."

Why should he? The Mets will pay him more.

bap, I wonder if you're forgetting how bad Randy Lerch was. I came up with about 60 players off the top of my head (granted, I read a lot about baseball history) and got to 110 without doing too much baseball-reference digging. Ricky Bottalico was actually pretty good for a couple seasons, but I still think I could make a case for 100 guys off my quickie list who should rank above him.

I mean look, if Phillies fans aren't going to remember Steam Engine in Boots or the Curveless Wonder, who will?

Pops: While Rivera is intriguing for almost 1/3 the price of Ibanez, I wouldn't be as comfortable with Rivera in LF as with Ibanez, who was 6th in the AL in hits last year. One thing I do like about the Ibanez signing (and I'm far from sold on it) is that Ibanez is a lot more likely to put the ball in play with runners on base than Burrell.

Jlwells5: My point is that the Phillies should be the highest bidder for Lowe. They are selling tickets at a rapid rate, making loads of money from World Series merch, they have Brett Myers coming off the books after this year (which also means they could use Lowe to be the #2 starter for a few years) and this would just be another possible impact move by the Mets.

ae: Completely agree about Lerch. He was terrible. I shouldn't have lumped him in with Bottalico, who was at least a decent reliever in his first stint with the Phillies.

CY: So you like Ibanez at $31M for 3 better than Rivera at $12.75M for 3?

Len39: So an out with men on base is beter than a walk? Interesting.

clout: So what do you predict from Rivera this year? Would you be happy with an 86 OPs+ in LF for $12.75M?

AE: I can't see the list of the 100 greates Phillies. Where does it rank Billy Hamilton, Sam Thompson and Ed Delahanty? Perhaps that's too far back in history. Only all .400 hitting OF in history (1894). Tuck Turner was a part timer that hit .420. Of course, the team didn't come in first due to terrible pitching. This was the second year where the pitching mound was at it's current 60' 6" distance from the plate. It took the pitchers a few years to catch up but they adjusted to it.

Ibanez: "Number one, with sabermetrics in general, it's a statistical probability thing"

It seems to me that much of sabermetrics is ex-post data collection--novel statistical assessments of past events.

I'm always on the look-out for salient conceptual critiques of sabermetrics but Ibanez's isn't it.

Bottalico had great raw stuff when he first came up and looking back he did have 4 above average seasons with the Phils.

Still, if he is in the best 100 it does speak volumes about bad the Phils' teams were for stretches during the 20th century.

How does putting the ball in play automatically equate an out - Clout?

I'm really anxious to see where Rocco Baldelli ends up now that he's been given an optimistic outlook on his health. I wonder if the Rays bring him back or if they sign a Milton Bradley type for two years.

James L: Phillies Nation seems to be doing it as an ongoing thing. so far they only have 100 through 98: Lerch, Kid Gleason (who didn't make my list either FWIW), and Bottalico.

Everybody criticizes Boras but he is just trying to make the most money for his clients. I can't believe their hasn't been more on Texiera. He had an 8 yr/$160M in a city where he would have played on a contender just about every year. Maybe he didn't want to live/play in Boston but the real issue was supposedly money (10 yrs/$200M).

If the was the case, FU you greedy bastard. Sometimes I am astounded how we aren't more critical of these type of deals. 15 year ago it would have raised a big stink. Now? Hardly an issue.

klaus: But even you must agree that most people treat a lot of sabermetric data as ex ante evidence.

Scott Boras is bad for baseball.

Or, perhaps more accurately stated...Scott Boras is bad for baseball fans.

Gleason started as a pitcher and then moved to the IF. I know he played quite a few years. A good pitcher in his few years as one.

Did anyone ever read License to Deal by Jerry Crasniak? It's about a pair of agents who at the time represent a number lesser known clients including Dontrelle Willis. Anyway, there's a lot in the book about Scott Boras - detailing his massive ego and the stable of major league clients that he represents. Interesting read if you're looking for something to hold you over until baseball season.

I agree. The Yankees and Scott Boras are perhaps the worst things about baseball. Baseball needs a cap.

CJ: Rivera will earn a little over $4M for next season. The $12.75M is over 3 years so your post is in error. Ibanez will make $31M over 3 years. I'll be quite happy to compare the results of those two contracts at the end of the 2011 season. How about you?

Perhas a cap of 150 Million in player salaries. I guess it would increase by the rate of inflation year by year (which this coming year might actually cause it to go down).

Pops: It doesn't. Sometimes it's a hit. Here's a quickie quiz for you: Who made more outs with runners in scoring position, Ibanez or Burrell?

Why is Scott Boras bad for baseball fans? I've never really understood this argument. Ok, he's bad for the Angels if they lose Texeira, but he's good for whatever team signs him. There's no salary cap in baseball, so if you're rooting for players to take less money, it means you're rooting for owners to keep more of their money. When it comes down to whether the millionaire baseball player or the billionair owner should get more money, I'll take the player anyday.

Also, it's really ridiculous when people attack players for being greedy for going after big conracts. Of course they're going to go after money, just like anyone else would, and especially since they've just spent 6 years having their salary be determined not by market forces but by arbitrary rules made up by MLB in order to keep salaries down.

If we signed Rivera for three years there would be people complaining that we didn't go out and get a left fielder with more of a resume - someone like Milton Bradley or RAUL IBANEZ for example.

Clout: The answer to your riddle is Ibanez. Question for you - Who had more opportunities and more hits this past season with runners in scoring position?

Last thought on Ibanez - more than half (12) of his homeruns in 08' (23) came with NOBODY ON BASE. That's an impressive stat knowing that he will be batting in the heart of the Phillies lineup next year. I'm not a betting man, but I would probably have to take the over on 110 RBI in 09' for Mr. Ibanez.

Pops: If Ibanez bats behind Howard and Utley, as seems likely, you will lose your ass on that bet.

"Why is Scott Boras bad for baseball fans? I've never really understood this argument. Ok, he's bad for the Angels if they lose Texeira, but he's good for whatever team signs him. There's no salary cap in baseball, so if you're rooting for players to take less money, it means you're rooting for owners to keep more of their money. When it comes down to whether the millionaire baseball player or the billionair owner should get more money, I'll take the player anyday."

Posted by: Jack | Friday, December 19, 2008 at 05:24 PM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'd be willing to wager that the cost of those ridiculous contracts does not cut into the profits of the billionaire owners, but rather it is more of "pass-thru cost"...a cost ultimately paid by the fans.

I'm not against players being well paid for their services, it just seems like in the money struggle between the millionaire players and the billionaire owners, well...it's the fans who are paying the price.

(As for me, personally, I just assume Teixeira spend the remainder of his career tucked neatly away in the NL, how about Atlanta? ;) )

You're probably right - that's a lot of runs to drive in regardless of the lineup / home stadium advantage, etc, etc. I had second thoughts on that prediction shorty after I hit post - lol.

Jack - You miss the point. Not like Texiera is a guy who is only going to make $1M or $2m/year. $160M is ridiculous money. Hell, even if you just invested in gov't and municipal bonds, you would set your family up for the next 3-4 generations. It disgusts me a bit when an athlete asks like that is not enough money.

Jack, those are not arbitrary rules made up by MLB, but a compensation structure negotiated and agreed to between the MLB owners AND the players themselves.
You can justifiably argue that the Players' Union was more concerned about their veteran and star players making a ton of FA money than they were interested in giving younger and marginal players more $$ opportunity, but you cannot say this was dictated by MLB (owners).

I don't begrudge any player making whatever he can get, and I don't have a problem with an agent driving a hard bargain for the benefit of his client.

With Boras, I think he considers himself bigger than his clients and therefore seems willing to sometimes sacrifice their best interests for his own (my perception). For example, I think he played a part in having Manny force his way out of Boston because had Manny stayed and exercised his options ($20 mil?), Boras would have gotten nothing, as the deal had been negotiated by Manny's previous agent. Even in Manny ends up signing somewhere now for less than $20m, reputation sullied, Boras comes out ahead. He has also held players out rather than lose a negotiation, which is all about his pride and his reputation, not a players' best interest.
It has also been rumored that he packages his players sometimes (sign marginal player X or you cannot sign star player Y).

Those perceptions aside, he does seem to get good deals for most of his clients, and the players are free to switch agents if they think he's not doing well by them.

"I'd be willing to wager that the cost of those ridiculous contracts does not cut into the profits of the billionaire owners, but rather it is more of "pass-thru cost"...a cost ultimately paid by the fans."

There's certainly some truth to that. But even if player salaries were capped at like a million or so, it seems to me that the teams would still charge close to what the market would bear. After all, with whom are they competing?

Baseball's revenues are enormous. Fairness dictates that players' salaries should be so as well. Perhaps what should be done is pegging the players' share at a certain percentage, which would rise or fall in relation to MLB's yearly fortunes--thus protecting the fans. Having done that, we could then move onto having philosophical arguments about how large a percentage of the revenue the players should actually have.

Clout: Where did I ever say an out with men on base is better than a walk? Come to think about it if its a groundout or fly that gets a runner home from 3rd then yes, an out with men on base is better than a walk. A hit is better than both a walk or an out.

clout: That's a good question... I'm not sure which contract will provide a better "result," but that's not a question that matters, frankly. You seem adept at setting up an awful lot of straw men, so I'll ask a simple question of my own:

Given the contracts, which signing would you rather the Phillies had made?

Raul Ibanez last 5 OPS+:
124, 121, 125, 115, 116
Career OPS+: 113

Juan Rivera last 5 OPS+ (not including 14 game season in 2007):
86, 126, 104, 109, 102
Career OPS+: 106

One is apparently still coming off a devestating broken leg that cost him a full season... the other has been on the DL once in his major league career.

In case this helps you at all... Juan Rivera's OBP (.282) was 20 points worse than Pedro Feliz last year!

Len39: Well... there are very few instances in which an out is better than a walk... even if it does happen to produce a run. Outs are the most precious commodity a player has. I'm guessing that statistical analysis would show that walking with no outs and a runner on third would lead to more runs in the long run for a team than hitting a sac fly.

Walking puts an extra runner on base while still leaving the next batter an opportunity to get a runner home with an out.

That should read: "Outs are the most precious commodity a team has."

Also... the instances in which an out is better than a walk are reserved for the bottom of the 9th when one run is needed to win the game and an out can provide that run. That's the only instance I can think of.

Ken Rosenthal is predicting that Burrell will end up with the Mets...that'll be fun.

I love when clout gets his panties in a bunch...

I trust Pat Gillick; he consistently beats the sabermetricians. Going by statistics alone, there wasn't a strong justification for acquiring Victorino, Werth, Dobbs, Moyer, Blanton, Romero, Lidge or Eyre. A great judge of talent can find cheap players with bad stats, who go on to outperform their contracts. Did you like your WFC? Thank Pat Gillick- he knows best. Great GMs act according to information not available to us. They look beyond the numbers. Stats are wonderful, for us, but its like picking stocks; no matter how hard you study the numbers, you won't beat the investors with inside knowledge. Stats show what a player's done, but don't necessarily tell you what he'll do.

very good points by Baxter...Personally, I think Gillick is smart enough to use scouting, his own eyes and judgment and statistics.

Didn't Harvey Haddix pitch a 12 inning perfect game or no hitter (I'm not sure) and lose way back when? I seem to remember a special issue baseball card from the 60's about "Haddix Hurls 12 Inning PG/NH And Loses"

Bob - Can't throw a perfect game and lose.

CJ: I'll take a run over a walk in the great majority of the time.

Baxter: Great post.

Amaro's worst nightmare is Burrell signing with the Mets for less money and less years than Ibanez and then Pat The Bat outperforms Ibanez including some clutch hits against the Phillies. It could ruin Jr.'s career if that happens as Phillies fans will never let him forget it.

I would also take the run over the walk, because I have little faith in the ultra sluggers Carlos Ruiz and Pedro Feliz who would be coming up after said run or walk.

Yous guys can correct me but, I believe Harvey Haddix threw 12 perfect innings at County Stadium before losing 1-0 in the 13th. Pretty damn good to say the least. Best game ever pitched, probably. Still, counts as a loss for all you statheads.

Andy's right, it ain't perfect. but, if I"m Haddix, I tell Andy to go f^*k himself.

Also talking about top 100 Philles of all time, who rounds out the top 5 in your mind?
Obviously Michael Jack is up there and Lefty. Does any of our current group make it?

Great question, ZT.
Jimmy Rollins is the best SS we've ever had.
Ryan Howard is likely the best power hitter ever to wear the red pinstripes.
Hard to make these judgments based on a few years production but I don't shy away from the foregoing.
Truly an historic group, altogether.

oops, apologies to Ibanez: he was referencing defensive ratings, which do have a predictive element.

From my understanding of the posts the past few hours concering Ibanez and rivera, clout contradicts everything he believes in which are stats, in favor of saving money on a player. Wow talk about twilight zone.

Also baxter, good job pointing out Gillicks eye for talent and your stocks analogy. I think BLer may be turning the corner back to being sane again.

top five Phillies: Schmidt, Carlton, Alexander, Roberts, Ashburn.

Howard? please. you could make a pretty good argument that he isn't one of the five best players on the 2008 Phillies. Utley, with another two years though...he could easily make top five.

Utley has alot of ground to cover to be the best 2B ever to play for Philly. Or, doesn't Ryne Sandberg count?

Ìîëîäåö, ÷óâàê, ïàëè òåìû! ß çà òåáÿ áîëåþ!

"Howard? please. you could make a pretty good argument that he isn't one of the five best players on the 2008 Phillies."


Just wow.

CJ: " I'm guessing that statistical analysis would show that walking with no outs and a runner on third would lead to more runs in the long run for a team than hitting a sac fly."

Exactly right.

ae: I have to hear this argument you could make.

CJ: Re: Ibanez and Rivera, I didn't ask who was the better player. That's obvious. I asked which was the better contract. As I say, we'll find out after the 2011 season. You seem a bit nervous about the answer.

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