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Monday, December 15, 2008

Comments

Someone must have gotten the old man some Metamucil, nice to see him regular again.

It's about time.

Good news. He is definately a good influence on the young guys. He will be needed to mentor whoever is going to pitch in the 5 slot (unless it it Park).

Hope he doesn't regress too much, but I am sure people have been calling for him to fall off a cliff for years now.

Time for the old small sample size comparisons to all the other 46/47 year old pitchers...

--Hope he doesn't regress too much, but I am sure people have been calling for him to fall off a cliff for years now.--

The way he throws, he should be good 'til he collects Social Security...if there IS any Social Security by that time.

We'll easily have the best (and highest paid) pitching coach in baseball for the 2010 season. Still, its good to have Gramps back. As I said earlier...anything under 4.50 ERA and over 150 IP will be considered a successful season for the Old Man.

****Time for the old small sample size comparisons to all the other 46/47 year old pitchers...****

Feel free to click on my link to my blog and read the comparison list I made about a month ago about signing Jamie to a 2 year deal. Has all sorts of comparison for his fellow 46 year old pitchers and their "success".

2 yrs/ 15 mil.

Drew,

Have you ever seen anyone with hip surgery. Usually, you have trouble walking for at least 2 months. It's been 1 month for him and he is already walking around town and eating out with buddies. Pretty impressive, don't need a doctor for that one.

Jack,

"It was smart of you to qualify that declaration with "basically", because I imagine some of these stat nerds on here don't quite agree that Park and Madson are similar pitchers. "

You hit the nail right on the head with that one. If there is a "significant" stat they will find it and try to make it a point to tell you that you do not know what your talking about.

I would also like to know how many of these "stat nerds" actually played the game before.

I like having Moyer back, but I guess this eliminates any shot at Lowe, although that was probably just a pipe dream all along.

its official, phillies.com is reporting it.

I would rather have Randy Johnson for 1 year 9 million if he would accept playing in this "bandbox".

anything under 4.50 ERA and over 150 IP will be considered a successful season for the Old Man.

I don't really disagree, but <4.50 ERA + >150 IP would be a successful season for anyone in the Phillies rotation, Hamels excluded.

to me, it's a success if Moyer pitches under a 5 ERA. I don't think the innings are an issue, because I think he keeps himself in good enough physical condition to make 30+ starts. I'd be more worried about him missing starts due to ineffectiveness than the DL.

Pressure back on the Mets now.

Hamels/Myers/Blanton/Moyer/Happ

is a respectable rotation.

The Mets need to pull even by re-signing Perez or bringing in Lowe.

i like moyer back.

i think that we may eventually see a Wakefield-like role at some point over the next two years from Moyer. spot starts against the young and impatient.

Repost from last thread:

I'm not in total agreement on Moyer being re-signed for 2 years. I have a hard time believing he will repeat his 2008 numbers, but he is an incredible influence on the rest of the starting rotation...this is a tough one. He does work harder than just about every other guy on the pitching staff (so "they" say--writers, Phillies FO themselves--Amaro just said it), so he won't fail because of lack of preparation or just trying to get by on his sheer talent (Moyer can't do that anyway) like Myers has done in the past.

I have mixed feeling on this one. I love Moyer, but don't see how he won't drop off at his age. I guess gambling comes with the territory with free agency.

I thought Amaro said now was not the time for sentimentality? I guess he only meant Burrell.

Todd Zolecki reporting Per Amaro paraphrasing. It was on the radio so hard to catch every word "It is kind of the same thing as Durbin last year. We are going to give Park a shot during spring training but most likely if it doesn't work he will be in the bullpen."

Per Zolecki, they are done with the heavy lifting. May bring back Seanez but definitely are getting a right handed bat off the bench.Carasco will start at Lehigh but may be up by All-Star Break.

Also, Per Amaro, Utley is looking to be ready by opening day.Wow I am calling it all today. Too bad clout and his stat groons are still thinking i am an idiot.

And this signing makes us the most "experianced" team in the league.

So we have that going for us.

Hopefully Haap # 5 and Chan Ho in the pen. Carassco can fill in when someone gets injured or is ineffective.

I am ok with the fringe moves we made with the staff. It should be well balanced from top to bottom.

If we are to repeat we will certainly need a couple young guys to step up at some point. No way we can go as healthy as we did last year.

Good news on Utley if true.

Which is nice.

you'll excuse me if I don't take Phillies management's word on the seriousness of player injuries. not sure they're exactly reliable sources.

I wonder how Park will feel being moved to the bullpen considering he mentioned that he signed with the Phillies since they viewed him as a starter.


/run-on sentence

Rollins was day to day for 4 weeks with his ankle sprain...so yeah.

"Have you ever seen anyone with hip surgery. Usually, you have trouble walking for at least 2 months. It's been 1 month for him and he is already walking around town and eating out with buddies. Pretty impressive, don't need a doctor for that one."

No, I haven't seen anyone with a hip injury, but you apparently have repeated experience with it.

Even if I had seen people with hip injuries, I wouldn't be so pretentious as to assume that I knew more than Utley and his physician.

ok, when he is starting opening day or close to it, then you will realize that Amaro is right. Until then worry about who wil start at 2nd for no reason.

it's always the best strategy to plan for the best case scenario and ignore the possibility that anything will go wrong...that's the kind of thinking that made America's economy the envy of the rest of the world.

So I guess this is pretty much it for the offseason?

I'm thinking Happ, Kendrick and/or Coste might be moved for a righthanded hitting 4th outfielder type, but it seems like the roster is set.

Now here comes the most tedious part of the offseason- arbitration. I hate reading about the endless contract negotiations and money. It has a good chance to get really ugly this year. Ugh.

Drew,

Amaro just said that he would be ready to go on opening day but I am leaving a 2 week window to be safe

The only disappointing thing is that this rules us out on Lowe -- and, in all likelihood, drops him straight into the Mets' laps.

Oh, and good to hear that Amaro thinks Park is probably ticketed for the bullpen.

Tommy:

If Ruben Amaro, Jr, MD says it, it's truth, huh? Every single acquisition of Amaro's to "make the team younger" has proved that wrong. It's hard for me to believe him on this.

In addition, if baseball only required players to "walk around town" then I might be more inclined to believe your prognosis as well.

Seriously, is this going to be another thread of you guys trying to get mvptommyd that he's wrong and you're right? Bleh, this has been killing the threads over the past week or so.

Honestly, I dig tommyd's positive energy, and recognize how helpful an optimistic voice can be. But watching him dig in time and time again in the face of indisputable evidence is getting really old. He obviously won't stop, so the only choice is to not engage him.

Tony D: Most indications suggest Johnson has little interest in pitching in the NE. Most of the speculation centers on TX and CA.

Man, Chan Ho Park, Jamie Moyer - The Phillies raided the retirement home today

I'm with Baron on this one. I always read the threads and never post, but when someone is right he's right.

Thankfully Moyer is back this year, but it does crush my unrealistic Lowe dream.

Baron,

Your right, i choose the optimistic and "traditional" approach which is watch the games and listen to the GM. I rather do this then be negative ALL Year about the team then when they win celebrate for a week then get back into negativeity for the offseason in a vicious cycle.

1. Amaro i am pretty sure talks to Utley's doctor about his injury.

2. Still no one has explained to me why if stats were SO important the only place they really matter is in fantasy Leagues.

Role players win championships, not exactly the best player at every position. Ibanez is a role player, not a HR hitter. His role will be to move the runners along.

Nepp- Your post and linked article about 45 + year old pitchers was interesting.
I hope Jamie proves to be the exception to the rule. He sure looked strong in '08, strong enough to think the Phils will be happy with his contract.
We will see how the next two seasons go.
(BTW- Hoydt Whilhelm was great to watch.)

mvptommyd: So how many Dodgers games did you watch this year? Obviously, you watched them all if you're qualified to speak about the Park acquisition. And I assume then that you've watched every Mariners game over the last few years, to be so positive on Ibanez, right?

JW: love ya man, but adding that thumbnail picture of Moyer is worse than just having no picture at all.

"where's Sir Alden to complain about that lost draft choice?"

Trust me, if SirAlden were here, he wouldn't be complaining about the lost draft choices. He'd be saying that Ibanez is a better and cheaper player than Burrell, that Chan Ho Park is back to being the same pitcher he was when he with the Dodgers (the first time), that John Mayberry, Jr. is a budding superstar, and that, since we busted slot several times last year, the draft choices this year were unnecessary -- and probably a liability since first round picks require high signing bonuses and don't usually work out anyway. Sir Alden's m.o. was that, if the Phillies' front office did it, it can't possibly be wrong. To stake out such an extremist position often required him to make up facts, make logically inconsistent arguments, or profess to have inside information to which no one else was privy. Sir Alden no longer posts at Beerleaguer but, alas, his twin brother has returned. In fact, his twin brother has actually managed to out-SirAlden Sir Alden.

I haven't heard Amaro say anything lately about getting a RH hitter. We have Dobbs, Jenkins, and Stairs off the bench. Brunett and maybe Coste (if hes still here) and new Catcher for RH. Catcher is hardly ever used up in case of starting catcher getting hurt. I say we definitely need that 4th outfielder being RH and good Pinchhitter.

"where's Sir Alden to complain about that lost draft choice?"

Trust me, if SirAlden were here, he wouldn't be complaining about the lost draft choices. He'd be saying that Ibanez is a better and cheaper player than Burrell, that Chan Ho Park is back to being the same pitcher he was when he with the Dodgers (the first time), that John Mayberry, Jr. is a budding superstar, and that, since we busted slot several times last year, the draft choices this year were unnecessary -- and probably a liability since first round picks require high signing bonuses and don't usually work out anyway. Sir Alden's m.o. was that, if the Phillies' front office did it, it can't possibly be wrong. To stake out such an extremist position often required him to make up facts, make logically inconsistent arguments, or profess to have inside information to which no one else was privy. Sir Alden no longer posts at Beerleaguer but, alas, his twin brother has returned. In fact, his twin brother has actually managed to out-SirAlden Sir Alden.

Jack,

I actually have watched quite a few of each. Park's numbers are where they are because he didn't start to get his fastball to be 92.6 that is 5 mph more than it was in the beginning of the year until about August. Therefore his stats are misleading. Like Madson how all of a Sudden he was throwing 93 for us.

Secondly, Burrell Hit after Howard, so his rbi numbers are misleading because the teams would rather pitch to him then howard anyday of the week and he still struck out more than Ibanez, that is also the reason for so many RBI's. Because he would be batting with sometimes bases loaded because they would rather have him with bases loaded and 1 out than howard with 2 on and 1 out.

Ibanez on the hand batted 3rd behind Jose Lopez and he still manages comparable numbers to Burrell. Do you know see how stats can't tell the whole story????

BAP
You got to be optimistic on some of these deals. Hate to be called on later in season when they are performing to our expectations than be critisized for being pessimistic.

FLjerry,

Amaro said in an interview with todd zolecki today that they will pick up a right handed stick but other than that and the arbitration they are pretty much done.

BAP: I see that one of the new writers on Phillies.com is an Alden Gonzalez. Coincidence?

Mytommy
I happen to agree with you almost 100% on Ibanez and Burrell stats and especially like you pointed out the RBI's. Burrell had plenty of oportunities where he did not come thru.

MVP - that was hilarious. Is today opposite day?

Maybe you don't like stats because you can't analize them properly.

Pat Burrell for his career:

AVG = .257, .852 OPS
AVG w/ RISP = .263, .853 OPS

So how did he "not come through" in RBI situations? He batted almost the same with RISP as he did for his career...very slightly better actually.

FLJerry,

Thank you. It drives me crazy to no end when all anyone like clout and company care about are stats and say "See the stats say that". Who cares, it doesn't mean anything thats why i say watch the game.

The phillies made a good signing on a guy like Ibanez who has made a career of moving runners along the basepaths even in the worst lineups.

No, I dont like stats because THIS IS NOT FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE!!!!!!!

If a guy has a chance for a thousand RBI's and only gets 100, all you stat guys will be like " Wow we need him", when in reality that stinks!

You all obviously haven't played the game because I will be willing to bet a dollar to a doughnut, that you guys read the boxscores after each game instead of reading the freaking article, because you are so CLUELESS about how to move runners along to score, all you care about is HR, RBI, BA, OPS percentage and is STUPID because thats why people like you will not be GM's anytime soon. Because that is not how you build teams!

MVP: I realize that I am a fool to engage you but you say that stats don't matter, and then you turn around and make an assertion which, if you had bothered to look at the numbers, you would see is provably false.

The assertion is that Burrell's RBI totals are misleadingly high, since he had so many RBI opportunities after Howard was intentionally walked, while Ibanez's RBI totals are misleadingly low since he played for a crappy team. In fact, Ibanez had 194 plate appearances with RISP last year; Burrell had just 155. Ibanez had 357 plate appearances with runners on base; Burrell had just 261. Somehow or other, despite having far, far fewer RBI opportunities, and despite the fact that he walks so many times, Burrell managed to knock in just 24 fewer runs than Ibanez.

To paraphrase your own question: Do you know see how stats CAN provide rather critical information, which can single-handedly show certain arguments to be factually unfounded? Like, for instance, the argument you just made.

So you think PTB had few RBIs because he stink in the clutch rather than the fact that Howard is hitting in fron of him who drives in runs better than almost anyone, and when he does get on can't score because he is pulling a train?

If you watch games you would probably notice this.

THink Raul benefited by batting third and having guys that can run in front of him?

I am just pointing this out, I am actually in favor of Ibanez and think he will fit in well.

Trolls are fun, eh?

Most of the guys on BL were downplaying Burrell for the last couple of years and wantged him traded. I remember some on hefre were stating they were booing him at games with everyone else. He definitely did not come thru as much as he should of - check the DP's he hit into and the KO's with men on base with less than 2 outs. He had enough chances and he did come thru some times so he did get close to 100 RBI each season. I wish some of these people on here would explain to me why the Phils did not try to resign him and whey they were always trying to trade him?

the biggest reason Moyer was so successful last year was his ability to induce groundballs; 1.26 G/F was his highest GB ratio since 1998 in Seattle. it's interesting...he was actually a fairly groundball-heavy pitcher early in his career, as high as 1.76 G/F in 1988 for Chicago, but in Seattle from 2001 to 2006 he was always a flyball pitcher, sometimes extremely so (0.84 G/F in 2002, 11th lowest G/F in baseball).

it was his ability to get groundballs last year that made him effective--his peripherals (strikeouts, walks) were mostly unchanged except that his doubles and HR went down by 17 and 10 respectively while facing 26 fewer batters. (he actually gave up more singles, FWIW.)

Moyer's career trajectory is pretty interesting--it seems like in adapting to Safeco he became an extreme FB pitcher, but now that he's pitching in a much more hitter-friendly park he's going more for groundballs.

I really really wanted Lowe, not the Geezer.

On the plus side, you can put us down for 5 wins against the Fish.

NEPP,

I am not a troll, i am a season ticket holder.

And FLJerry is right, 2 years ago when he vetoed a trade to Baltimore, everyone was booing him and not all of a sudden he isn't expendable. Mind Boggling.

Bottom line is Burrell was more money, power hitter, more strikeouts, 100+ RBI's

Ibanez is less money, hit for contact, less strikeouts, 100+ RBI's

Thats Amaro's decision it is a sideways move really.

Eithier way this team is a 92-95 win team in the end, so I do not understand what the big deal is.

This offseasons moves
Burrell replaced with Ibanez
Seanez replaced with Park
Added Paulino

How does this really effect this team in the long run? NADA, still the same team a couple different parts.

Regarding Utley, I went on the CBP tour last week and there was only one locker still being used in the clubhouse, that was Utley's. The clubhouse attendent stated Utley had been there almost everyday working out 3-4 hours.

mvptommyd - But aren't RBIs stats? Are you assembling a baseball team or a fantasy team?

Was trying to google if Phillies promised Durbin a chance to start last year. Didn't really find it yet, but did find various folks talking about it on the internet.

If interested, the BL thread on Durbin's signing...

Bigtom,

Yea. Amaro said today he will be back for Opening day. However, I think it will be more like April 15th before he is fully back.

"mvptommyd - But aren't RBIs stats? Are you assembling a baseball team or a fantasy team?"

I said that because people need to see numbers or they get confused. To show that they are comparable in that catogory even though they are different style players.

We've had trolls before, but very few who were also idiots. Best way to deal with an idiot troll is not to respond.

If Chan Ho Park sniffs a starters' job this season, with Happ, Kendrick and Carrasco available to fill the no. 5 spot and any injuries that may follow, we will not win the World Series.

clout - they may have been idiots as well, they just weren't nearly as persistent so we never found out for sure.

I certainly agree that Burrell-to-Ibanez is a lateral move. the problem is that to make this lateral move, we gave up our first draft pick, committed to Ibanez's age 39 season, and got more LH-heavy at the middle of our lineup. it's not a bad move in a vacuum, but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for the Phillies. (I'd much rather have gone after Juan Rivera, for example.)

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/phillies-sign-c.html

This is from MLBTR and projecting him a starter along with some positive comments about Durbin. Ahh some people just love to live life negative.

EF: I don't remember anyone from the Phils saying he'd be a starter either, so this is yet another lie from the idiot troll. I do remember arguing with kdon who said J.D. Durbin was better than Chad Durbin.

clout,

Are you actually a fan of baseball. For example enjoy going to games? Or do you just find joy out of thinking stats are great and proving the phillies GM's wrong which you have a record of not doing?

King Myno,

Why are you so sure Burrell is better? Or is it that you are going to miss watching his backside from Leftfield, maybe that is it! I am on to something!

ae: "it's always the best strategy to plan for the best case scenario and ignore the possibility that anything will go wrong...that's the kind of thinking that made America's economy the envy of the rest of the world."

I get your point, but the irony of your comment is that the American economy actually still is the envy of the rest of the world.. and the Phillies are WFC.

(and for anyone interested in the subject, Moneyball author Michael Lewis wrote an article recently that was somewhat of a follow up to his book from 20 years "Liar's Poker", and it's a very entertaining read)

mvptommy: Let's try a simple exercise.

Who is a better player -- Albert Pujols or Abraham Nunez? Support your argument.

Just ignore him...its getting really old at this point.

mvptommyd - i hadn't realized how stupid we all were until you joined this forum. Wow I never met anyone who had all and I mean ALL the answers. It must be nice being perfect and yet so humble at the same time

BAP:

Yea because I am sure that example is the same between burrell and ibanez.

It is actually funny that people on here who think they are baseball savvy have no hope for baseball on the front office level. And have to resort to being negative on blogs every day all their lives.

I am happy I stopped blogging during the playoffs on here. I could only imagine the negativity when they lost 1 game. People were most likely calling for peoples jobs over it.

Found the phillies.com story on Durbin last year. He was promised a chance at competing for a starting spot it sounds like...

"It's a competitive situation," Phils general manager Pat Gillick said. "It gives [manager] Charlie [Manuel] and [pitching coach] Rich Dubee options heading into Spring Training. If [Eaton's] healthy and performing, then he'd have an edge to be starting. But if someone else outperforms him ..."

"I was told I would get starter innings [in Spring Training] and be ready if something happens," Durbin said. "They're going to let it be competitive. Obviously, Jamie Moyer's not going anywhere, or Cole or Brett. If I'm pitching in relief and the team is winning, that's the most important thing."

Meanwhile, I will enjoy sitting in my seats on the first base line for the season rather than on here every night, using stats to defend players and how the Front Office screwed us over again.

Last time i checked the Phillies have an average of 86 wins a season since 2001. We just won the World Series and still people are complaining.

Even if the Phillies did nothing this offseason and let Burrell go, i wouldn't complain because I have been waiting all my life for this moment.

Makes me think, maybe some people do make up the term "negadelphia"

Anyone else think that tommy is actually Joe Morgan in disguise? I mean, he parrots many of the same points of view.

I'm ok with Moyer re-signing, but I hope the Phillies don't move Happ or KK in case he does fall off the cliff.

EastFallowfield,

Thanks for that quote.

****Meanwhile, I will enjoy sitting in my seats on the first base line for the season rather than on here every night, using stats to defend players and how the Front Office screwed us over again.****

Having money for season tickets automatically confers expert status on all things baseball apparently. That's a wonderful argument. MVP is the definition of a troll. Now he's bashing all fans who can't afford to have season tickets like him and all fans that disagree with anything he has to say or even look at stats.

lazarus,

yea join the club buddy. I don't care , i still wear my world series hat around and am happy. I am excited for this season and can't wait to be there for opening day.

I can only imagine the negativity opening day here, and God help us if Ibanez goes 0-4.

"Now he's bashing all fans who can't afford to have season tickets like him and all fans that disagree with anything he has to say or even look at stats."

He also called into question someone's sexuality I believe. Easily the basest level of insult possible.

Just because they're not a Mets fan, that doesn't mean they're not a troll. Don't be baited. Ignore it and move on.

NEPP

"Having money for season tickets automatically confers expert status on all things baseball apparently. That's a wonderful argument. MVP is the definition of a troll. Now he's bashing all fans who can't afford to have season tickets like him and all fans that disagree with anything he has to say or even look at stats"

No, all i am saying is I go to the games and watch the game. Not base all my complaints based on the boxscore. IMO, getting an out to get a run in means just as much as a solo HR. But for all you stat junkies, that is unacceptable getting an out to hurt your average!!!

Don't put words in my mouth.

sometimes you have to let an idiot be an idiot

Re: Starting Rotation

I'm curious... which would you choose:

a) The 2009 starting rotation projects to be better than what we got in 2008.

b) The 2009 starting rotation projects to be roughly equal to what we got in 2008.

c) The 2009 starting rotation projects to be worse than what we got in 2008.

A.) Because they all now have been in high pressure situations, so overall will make them ready for any situation

tommy, I still get a warm feeling every time I think of this WS and will for the rest of my life. I'm glad you have season tickets at a time when so many people are struggling to pay their bills. Oh, and "Getting an out to get a run (your words) means just as much as a solo HR" has just taken pride of place as the dumbest thing you've ever posted here.

@mvptommyd: I respect your view, I don't agree with it but I respect it. Please do the same for us. Maybe you don't understand that we can get enjoyment out of different aspects of the game? Don't just assume that we don't see, and enjoy the intrinsic value in the sport. I enjoy the game for what it is, and maybe it's my inner math nerd that also enjoys analyzing it by stats.

It's obvious us "stat goons" aren't going to change your mind and vice versa. So if we offend you so much --- why continue this dance?

"as the dumbest thing you've ever posted here."

I liked it earlier when he said that he had seen Utley sitting around without a limp.

I don't understand you guys. MVPtommy is giving his opinion and most of it I agree with. Can't we have a discussion here without calling others trolls or idiots or whatever you have been calling MYP.
specially you
Clout - I usually agree with you on most of your stats and your opinions. But I remember you saying Victorino will not play the whole year and you also were not a Dobbs fan. This was your opinion and we understood it and never once did we call you out for it.

mvptommy: I assure you this question has nothing to do with the specific issue of Burrell v. Ibanez.

So, again: Who is better between Albert Pujols and Abraham Nunez? Support your argument.

****No, all i am saying is I go to the games and watch the game. Not base all my complaints based on the boxscore. IMO, getting an out to get a run in means just as much as a solo HR. But for all you stat junkies, that is unacceptable getting an out to hurt your average!!!****

Well, the last 140 years of baseball would prove that a solo HR is more valuable in the long run than a sac fly but why get confused by that. You act as if the only people that actually watch games are the 43K in attendance at CBP. All the rest of us just check the box score instead.

With that, I'm done arguing with this idiot...he's worse than stupid...he's Joe Morgan stupid.

why? a run is a run? That is my point exactly!

People are so in love with stats that if it is a individual stat rather than helping the team, people do not want to see it.

It's like sportscenter. Nobody cares about the guy that had 12 assists in a game. All they care about is the guy that score 40.

MVP: "I am happy I stopped blogging during the playoffs on here."

So are we. I think we're going to start referring to that time period as "The Good Ol' Days."

CJ, you idiot :), I'm gonna go with option b+. I'd guess for a slight improvement by Hamels, Blanton, a return to career norm+aging for Moyer, Myers and the #5 spots as question marks, with potential upside.

2009 rotation:

Hamels-could have better W/L with better run support, worry about workload last year

Myers-should improve on horrible first half, probably couldn't repeat that part of 08

Blanton>Kendrick most likely

Moyer? Probably worse than last year, but how much worse?

Mystery 5th starter>Eaton

I'll project roughly equal with possible improvement, hoping that any decline in Moyer is made up for by less Eaton, less bad Myers and less slack for Kendrick

MVP - you know that if you drive in a run you get an RBI, right?

Also, if you make an out in doing so it is called a sacrifice and your average doesn't go down.

You claim to have played baseball and don't know this. I learned that when I was 7

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