Declining arb sends signal about Amaro's motives

Although they can continue to negotiate, by declining arbitration to Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer, the Phillies lay bare their offseason intentions.

You won’t find a pair of moves that speak a starker truth about the nature of the business than declining arb for Moyer and Burrell, and by extension, taking a pass on potentially four compensatory picks that would require signing bonuses. Nevertheless, I believe the first-year GM, who said he speaks with Pat Gillick on a daily basis, deserves the benefit of the doubt. But any way you spin it, declining arb for Burrell says the Phillies do not think he’s worth the price an arbiter will assign. Although I would disagree, a 32-year-old who struggled for much of the second half is a red flag some would measure separately from collective performance.

The Moyer situation is a different animal. Amaro said that in his perfect world, Moyer fills one of the slots in next year’s rotation. By declining arb, it says that Amaro doesn’t want an arbiter making the decision on what they feel he’s worth, which would likely extend beyond what they’re willing to pay a 46-year-old pitcher with over a half dozen arbitration cases still looming. Nevertheless, Moyer fans have added cause for concern this morning. Just as conventional wisdom overrated the Phils desire to offer arb to Burrell, it's undervaluing Moyer's ability to cash in on the open market. Throwing out one scenario: Why shouldn't a team like the Yankees, an East Coast team that spends its spring near his relocated family, court a savvy vet like Moyer?

The Phillies are not alone in this free agent tactic. As one reader put it "The fact that so many teams refused to offer arbitration to their pending FAs tells me that many teams see significantly reduced revenue for 2009 and they do not want to risk high arbitration awards just to secure additional draft picks. In an uncertain economy, with the possibility of decreased revenues, and very tight money, additional investment in a high risk, longterm return draft pick does not look quite so attractive."

Comments

[NEPP]

I almost hope that both players sign deals with other teams and have great seasons to show how stupid Fvckhead Amaro is.

Good thing we won the WS this year because that will be it for this core of players. Its over now that Amaro is in charge. The ultimate Yes-man for a cheap ownership group.

[thephaithful]

Without knowing what is happening this offseason - at first look this is completely in the wrong for not giving themselves a chance to get compensation picks.

I know a MLB 1st rounder isnt like a 1st rounder in the NBA/NFL where they're competing for the ROY within a few months, but look at our WS team. Hamels, Utley, Myers, Burrell are all first rounders. The WS runner ups have about 200 first rounders on their roster and AAA team.

No one was getting locked up long term this year. Yeah they'll pretend they are negotiating in good faith, but we all know they wont. They wouldn't need more peices with Burrell and Moyer resigned. So why would those two players accepting a 1 year deal hurt the Phillies in anyway? What else are they going to do with that money? Just use it pay others their arbitration raises? Christ, pay it your f'n selves. if a player excels, then pay him for it. I know we(the fans) are.

[Andy]

While I find the move depressing, I am not quite as cynical as NEPP's statement: "Its over now that Amaro is in charge." I can see, reasonably, that Amaro (and his slew of Ass-Gms and advisors) felt that Burrell's future did not warrant the amount an Arbitrator would assign. I can also see that they did not want to go to an Arbitrator with Jamie Moyer's 2008 season as evidence. They may very well believe that there is better value on the FA table and in trades than they can get from signing either.

OTOH: I'm not sure I buy the "save-a-bonus" conspiracy idea. Getting good picks is the best way to stock a team cheaply in the long run. Why wouldn't the ownership group want to pay a couple (at least) signing bonuses knowing that in fairly short order (three years?) one of the guys they pick will get the major league minimum to fill a roster sport for a few years. Really, high picks are a good investment for cheap owners. (And if the bonus demands are too much, just let the guy walk like Drew, right? They can argue that it was just an extra draft pick so why not?)

I'm hoping that there's a plan here. If there's not, failing to offer a one year deal in arbitration to Moyer is just messed up. Failing to offer a one year deal to Burrell is short-sighted. And next year's team will be weaker than the WFC team of 2008.

[BobbyD]

NEPP: Why don't you wait and see how the offseason plays out before jumping off that bridge.

[J. Weitzel]

A little Beerleaguer redemtion this morning for Todd Zolecki, whose sources are historically the most sound among the beat writers. Zolecki was totally trashed two threads ago for some reason. People think that just because he writes for Phillies.com that Mandel is fed inside information and his stories are gospel. Mandel does a fine job, but if you look back, the Inquirer almost always gets the scoop first.

[NEPP]

****NEPP: Why don't you wait and see how the offseason plays out before jumping off that bridge. ****

I'm just venting. My first reaction to any news is usually extreme. Unless they're gunning for another expensive FA this move is almost certainly a mistake.

[timr]

The Burrell move makes sense if they are planning on getting someone better to replace him. But a Stairs/Jenkins platoon is not better than Burrell. Its as simple as that.

[thephaithful]

Lake Fred: that website i mentioned on this site before about the cheap jerseys - I just got my second jersey, a Hamels (non world series). It hardly resembles my other jersey I got from their site. The pinstripes are weak, almost painted on, and give off an orangish look.

I dont know if the Hamels is a mess up and they're usually good, or my Lidge was a exception and they're usually crappy. But wanted to give you a warning that the site might not be a great as I was saying.

[Brian G]

NEPP: If offered arbitration there's a good chance Moyer($10mil) and Burrell($16mil) would have accepted. Without them our payroll is already about $110 mil. I'm sure ownership said not to go up to $135 mil. Not sure how that's Amaro's fault.
Some people seem like they can't wait to bash Amaro. It's unfair. Give the guy a chance.

[BENTZ]

Question - what if the same team (say the Yankees) signs two Type A free agents off of different teams (for example's sake - say Sabathia and Burnett)? Who gets the Yanks first round pick - Milwaukee or Toronto? And the Yanks' picks wouldn't be protected. How does that work?

[paul]

In a perfect world Amaro offers arbitration to Burrell and Moyer, they sign with other teams, and the Phillies draft four more toolsy washouts.

Seriously folks, with the recession upon us I think ownership, and probably Amaro as well, don't want some law professor telling them how large their payroll will be. It stinks, but what can you do?

[baxter]

The Phillies have actually done a relatively great job drafting. They probably have the best homegrown core of players in baseball. The importance of those draft picks cannot be dismissed.

[Lake Fred]

phaithful, thanks for the tip. I haven't acted yet on that site. Turkey and family took up all my time this weekend. I want to go to the mall and try some $200 models to get my size right. I might still be willing to risk $39.98 on the Ryan Howard WS model. Hell, down here in Texas and Louisiana, nobody'll know if the WFC Phillies real team color is orange or not! If it's close to that horrible burnt orange color, the Texans will love it.

[westhazleton]

Jenkins has had a rough couple of seasons, but dollar for dollar, I'll take his career .275 BA over Burrell's .257.

Their career numbers are remarkably similar. Their career at bats are separated only by roughly 150 and the only dramatic difference is that Burrell was able to draw more walks. Rather than to commit $15 million plus to another disappointing season, I'd be just as happy sticking it out with Jenkins or a less expensive FA than Burrell would have commanded from an arbitrator should he accept.

As for Moyer, I can't see justifying a multi-year contract to a pitcher his age. The troubles he experienced in the LCS and NLCS may have been isolated incidents, but they also may have been an indication that age might finally catch up to the old horse. He rebounded well against Tampa Bay as predicted (he's remarkable against young hitters), but with Wolf, Burnett and other options available, both in FA and trades, it would be silly to commit at this time without shopping around to get the best value for the Phillies dollar.

I think Amaro is off to a smart start. We'll see where it goes from here.

[Lake Fred]

ae wrote in the last thread: "if these decisions are at all indicative of Amaro's strategy, then get ready to wait a long longer than 28 years for another championship."

I'm not worried. If Amaro is bad, he'll be long gone before then! In 28 years, I'll be well in my dementia period and still be thinking it's 2008; and I'll be talking about those WFC Phillies with Jamie Moyer!

[LEF]

BENTZ - Eric Karabell and Peter Pasquarelli addressed this on the ESPN Baseball Today podcast last week. Apparently MLB adds a pick sort of in between the first and second rounds for one of those two teams - how they determine which team that will be, however, doesn't really seem to be clear to anyone except the draft organizers. Pasquarelli said that because the baseball draft isn't so set in stone like the NBA or NFL, the system of first round picks is much more fluid.

[clout]

As I said at the end of the last threadm, in fairness to Amaro, we'll have to see how this plays out thru the offseason before we can make a judgment.

Although there's been no report of it, perhaps he really will use the money saved to go after someone like Lowe and the stronger pitching will balance a Jenkins/mediocre RH platoon in LF. Or perhaps he's pretty sure he can bring Moyer and Burrell back for what they made last year.

If we get Value Village replacements (i.e. Jay Payton), then we'll know we've been betrayed and improving the team is not first priority.

[J. Weitzel]

If Jenkins/Dobbs/Stairs split time in left, we'll need to come up with another name for it than a platoon. Beerleaguer opens the floor to suggestions.

[clout]

westhazleton: I wonder how many baseball people would agree that Jenkins=Burrell.

There's a stat you're obviously unfamiliar with called OPS+. It is considered to be best measure of a player's offensive value.

Burrell's OPS+ the past 4 years: 128, 122, 127, 125.

Jenkins' OPS+ the past 4 years: 130, 101, 101, 79.

That's a pretty sizeable gap.

[clout]

JW: Disaster.

[NEPP]

Type A compensation explained:

"If a Type A Free Agent is offered salary arbitration by his former team, but declines arbitration and instead signs with another team, the signing club must compensate the former club with a first round draft pick in the upcoming season’s amateur draft. However, picks 1-15 may not be awarded as compensation - in the event that the signing club owns a first round pick from 1-15, that team forfeits its second round pick rather than its first round pick. Additionally, if the signing club signs more than one Type A Free Agent, that signing team also must compensate the other Type A free agent's previous club with its second round pick, and a third round pick for a third signed Type A free agent, etc. The determination of which former team gets the higher compensation pick is based on the signing players' Elias rankings - the player with the highest ranking yields the highest pick to the that player’s former team. In addition to this compensation, a "supplemental pick" is created between the first and second round (the "supplemental round") to further compensate the former club for the loss of a Type A player. Picks awarded as compensation for the loss of a Type A Free Agent may not be later forfeited."

[MPN]

Well, on days they play LF we could designate LF as the Left Bank... or [insert RH platoon partner] and the Leftovers.... I'll be here all week.

[bay_area_phan]

"Jenkins has had a rough couple of seasons, but dollar for dollar, I'll take his career .275 BA over Burrell's .257. Their career numbers are remarkably similar. Their career at bats are separated only by roughly 150 and the only dramatic difference is that Burrell was able to draw more walks."

Oh geez, where do I start? How about I start with the fact that one guy is 32, with numbers that have been holding steady for years, and the other will turn 35 next year, with numbers that have been in sharp decline for 3 straight seasons? Or how about the fact that one guy hits both right-handers and left-handers, while the other has hit less than .220 against left-handers in 4 of the last 5 seasons (and has actually hit less than .140 in 2 of those seasons)?

Then there are those career batting averages -- always a show-stopping argument. To my amazement, Jenkins really does have a career average of .275. But, then again, he also had a couple of .300 seasons which happened nearly a decade ago, plus a couple .290+ seasons which happened more than 5 years ago. Over the last 5 years, though, Burrell & Jenkins have hit for similar average & Burrell has hit 49 more homeruns. Oh, and he has drawn a few more walks along the way but, since those are just walks, they might as well be counted as outs.

[zp]

Stobenkins?

[zp]

kinda sounds like a chain restaurant.

[ae]

Pat Burrell 2004-2008:
.261 .382 .495 148 HR 479 RBI

Geoff Jenkins 2004-2008:
.268 .339 .464 99 HR 342 RBI

[bay_area_phan]

There is no way the Phillies are going to go into the season with Jenkins/Dobbs/Stairs as the left-field triumvirate. The Phillies would obviously love to trade Jenkins but, since they won't be able to, they'll trade Stairs instead. Then they'll sign some absolute piece of garbage to be the right-handed part of the platoon. The only job requirement is that he be willing to work for cheap. He doesn't have to hit because, after all, the Phillies already gave us a world championship last year. It is only the most unreasonable fans who expect them to compete for the championship 2 years in a row.

[king myno]

J: "Too Many Effing Lefties"?

[king myno]

I understand Ruben's decision to forego sentimentality, but it seems to me (and almost everyone else) that offering them arb and bringing everyone back for a year is a better baseball decision than not upgrading at all (which seems more and more likely, as this reeks of Avoiding contracts to so that we can 'afford' these raises).

[NEPP]

So I went and glanced through the last few 1st rounds to get an idea of the average success rate of a pick. From 2001-2006, the lowest number of MLBers from the first round was aroudn 12 and the highest was 16 or 17. Granted, I'm possibly missing some 25th man guys but that's still a decent success rate of around 40-55% depending on the year. The 05 draft was particularly strong with several very good players going in the 1st round.

[baxter]

I have a feeling we'll see a lot of Greg Dobbs in left field.

Without Burrell, Cholly needs more offense out of C and 3B, which almost forces him to try out Donald and Marson early in the season.

[Andy]

I'm kinda partial to a "Spitoon."
Or maybe a "Sallloon."

[CJ]

Jason hit this on the head by repeating the comment about baseball as a whole. I've been shocked at the number of Type A free agents who were declined arbitration. It's clearly a statement on the economic situation and I believe it has little to do with any consideration of draft pick signing bonuses. This is strictly about this year's payroll.

I'm disappointed by their decision.

[mikes77phillies]

Like I said in the last thread... Jenkins and Rivera could put up simillar numbers to Burrell. 50 extra walks from the 5 hole are'nt worth an extra $10-15 million to the payroll .

[Andy]

Or maybe you could put an "l" for lefty into it and call it a "Splitoon," or place in an asterisk to be even more accurate (you know: with the right letter mentally supplied):

A "S*itoon."

[Mc-B]

left field platoon name: J-SOBBS

[Hitman]

The fact that they declined arb to Moyer is surprising. It means they didn't want to pay what an arbritator would have given him. Or, it could mean that they have shifted their focus and are hot on the heels of Burnett or Lowe. Maybe a bit too optimistic, eh?

[WillyFromPhilly]

I can't wait until 10 years from now and a Phillies player is real good and we all say, "Didn't Gillick draft that guy back in 2006 or so?" Then we argue that it was 2007 and someone points out that was the other superstar player that Amaro traded away.

[NEPP]

I'd call that type of platoon an "October 5th Tee Time."

[lekh tizdayen]

JW: What do you call the Dobbs/Stairs/Jenkins rotation? I would call it 4th place.

[Andy]

Of all the bizarre options for trying to replace (if they really are trying to replace rather than re-sign) Burrell, I'm partial to the Delmon Young option.

Even though the thought of those mammoth bookends Dom Brown and Michael Taylor patrolling on either side of Vic in 2010 is a fine fantasy, I am resigned to knowing that the chance of both of them actually making it is rather slim. Young, since he has already hit a bit in the majors is a much better prospect for a long-term solution.

I wonder what the Twins will want. Maybe we can rule 5 Lahey and offer him back in a package (j/k).

[baxter]

Baldelli or Rivera?

[CJ]

By the way... I'm rooting for Sabathia to sign with the Angles so that the Yankees go after Lowe and Burnett forcing the Mets to turn to a less appealing choice that they'll be forced to overpay to add to their rotation.

[philsphan]

Kerry Wood wasn't offered arbitration. He is he willing to pitch the 8th inning and set-up for Lidge I would like to see the Phillies sign him to a 1 or 2 yr deal with incentives.

[NEPP]

I would guess a package of Jason Donald, a good pitching prospect and a throw-in would get it done. They're looking for pitching and a middle infielder. And they don't want to look like they're taking a loss on trading Garza.

D. Young is definitely on the block. He's 23, has 2 full seasons under his belt with a .292 batting average and his secondary numbers are getting better. This was his Age 22 season for those who will say he is a bust so far. How many guys start full time at Age 21 and make the majors at Age 20? Its a fairly short list.

[philsphan]

Andy: Good point. I don't know enough about Delmon Young, but I just wanted to add that if Taylor and/or Brown make it to the majors successfully, I see one of them replacing Ryan Howard at first base someday.

[lekh tizdayen]

I mentioned this after the draft, but it seemed that part of the strategy on taking so many high schoolers this year was to compensate for having less picks in 2009 and perhaps beyond. At the time, I thought this was because they were planning to sign a Type A free agent (Sabathia, Lowe), but perhaps it is more because they weren't planning on offering arb to Burrell/Moyer and are planning on signing a Type A free agent (Springer, Cruz). We could be looking at another Tim Moss draft if lose our first round pick. If that happened, our first pick would be the last pick of the second round with no sandwich pick. The only way to redeem a draft like that is to nail the last rounds and aggresively court the Kyle Gibson's and Jared Cosart's at the end of the draft.

[NEPP]

The Mariners offered Raul Ibanez arbitration. I'm waiting for the Phillies press conference announcing the signing of Ibanez to a 3 year deal followed by a Mariners press conference where they sign Burrell to an identical 3 year deal and take their 2 picks as compensation for losing Ibanez.

[baxter]

If we make a trade, it should be for a pitcher like Grienke. Personally, I think Marson, Donald and Carrasco are off the table, because we'll need all 3 this year.

[lekh tizdayen]

NEPP: I agree on all front about Delmon Young. The problem is that eventually he will be expensive, and Amaro is a finances guy. He'd rather pay more now (think Pedro Feliz type signing) knowing he won't have to pay more later. That said, Twins would likely ask for Donald, Carrasco, and perhaps a wild card like Freddy Galvis. Donald and Happ might be too much.