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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

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Yeah, but can he hit for power and play LF?

On BAP Day's Eve, I'm going to politely disagree with JW. Now let me preface this by saying that I do think Carrasco has a chance of breaking camp with the Phillies as their fifth starter. This is due to both his ability and his right-handedness; he'd definitely cut down on the left-handedness of the rotation, especially with Happ currently projected as the third lefty.

However, I think there are at least two reasons why Carrasco will be starting the season as an Iron Pig. I've got to think that the FO would like to 1) keep him away from his arb years as long as possible and 2) let him get at least half a year of AAA under his belt before throwing him out there against Major Leaguers.

But as JW correctly pointed out, there are drawbacks to all of the 5th starter candidates. I guess that's why they're 5th starter candidates.

Why exactly do the Phils want their best arm in the minors throwing seemingly 11 months of the year?

I can't see Carlos making the squad, but I think he'll have the type of Spring that makes his big league appearance inevitable in '09.

Jeltz: Ding, ding, ding, ding, we have a winner. They will want to hold off his arbitration years.

Anyone think that Happ could bring a decent outfield part?

How about Marson and Carrasco both making an impact after the all star break?

"Anyone think that Happ could bring a decent outfield part?"

Manny Ramirez left forearm?

Andy: I don't think you can trade someone off your 40 man roster for a free agent's body part. Just a hunch.

Although, I must admit, it would make for some interesting trade possibilities...

Carrasco has NO SHOT of making the team out of spring training. I can't understand why everyone believes Phillies minor leaguers can jump to the majors from AA while other team's players don't either. So what if he pitched a month at AAA. Big deal. What do you think the Phillies management is going to do? Take a chance and ruin him like Gavin Floyd? And make him a free agent at age 27? Use common sense. And some want to trade him? For who? Have you seen the prices of mediocre free agent pitchers lately? CC can't win a playoff game if his life depended upon it. Lowe took an L against us in October. And Teixeira - Hamels can whiff him anytime he wants to. Anybody who suggests that Carrasco should be traded shouldn't show their ignorance by posting on a Phillies board.

So, speaking hypothetically, WFP, if someone were to suggest Carassco could make a nice piece for a trade package for say, Peavy, then that would be ignorant to the point of forgoing future postings? Doesn't seem to mesh with the first part of your argument.

Given that the Phillies are trying give away Eaton, I can't see him pitching at all for the Phillies unless the bubonic plague hits the clubhouse. Good to see that Carrasco is continuing to shine. I could see him starting a few games for the club this year to see where he's really at. It'd be nice if Happ panned out for a #5 role, but I don't know if KK can improve upon his struggles from last year, but there's still hope. I don't want to see Park start a game, but he looks like he could provide some useful innings, particularly in long relief if some one is getting blown out early.

Willy: 3 points. First, Gavin Floyd didn't look too "ruined" last year when he was winning 17 games for the WhiteSox. He seems to have gotten over the irreparable psychological trauma of being called up too soon. Second, if Happ & KK both flame out in spring training, and Carrasco is lights out, do you seriously propose keeping him in the minors so that 3 years from now, you can defer his arbitration eligibility for one season? Third, how do you reconcile this view with your view that he should not be traded under any circumstance? He's too good to be traded, but we're not allowed to put him on our active roster because that would mean we'd have to pay him a real salary one year sooner? This makes no sense.

The odds of Carrasco making the opening day roster are obviously way less than 50-50. He probably SHOULD spend at least at least a month or two at AAA, no matter how he fares in spring training. But I agree with Jason: Kendrick isn't too exciting and the Phillies have never shown a great deal of enthusiasm for Happ. I think they would love to give the fifth spot in the rotation to Carrasco if he had a strong spring training.

Two things jump out at me about Carrasco's Venezuelan League stats. The first is that he has made 11 starts but pitched just 47 total innings -- never lasting more than 5 innings in a game. I assume that stat is not performance-related, but is due to a concerted effort not to overuse him.

The second thing I notice is that he has allowed only 11 earned runs but 18 runs. There's no way to interpret that, since we don't know anything about the circumstances behind any of the earned runs. But, very often, a run which is charged as unearned is actually a run for which the pitcher bore considerable blame. I'm not trying to downplay Carrasco's winter performance but it is very possible that his stellar ERA may somewhat overstate how well he is actually pitching.

From MLBTR . . . Rocco Baldelli apparently visited with another specialist recently & learned that his illness has been misdiagnosed. He doesn't have mitochondrial disorder after all. He has an illness called channelopathy, which is non-progressive and completely treatable. Something tells me that news will make him a lot richer.

Wow, that's great news for him if that's the case. He certainly has talent, if he can get this stuff under control he'll likely be starting somewhere within a year. It's like the MLB version of Mystery Diagnosis.

Carlos Carrasco will not break camp with the Phillies. Even though he is a great prospect, he is just that, a prospect. He isnt guaranteed to kill right out of the gate. The Phillies have 3 other options for the five spot that have pitched in the major leagues with success.The Phillies will Carrasco to AAA for about 1-2 months no matter what, just to start his arbitration clock a year later. Its the smart business decision.

Agreed. Only way Carrasco opens the season in Philly:

1. He would have to be lights out in spring training

2. The Phils would have to get hit by a few injuries in their rotation (say 2 injuries)

3. Happ and Kendrick would have to be so horrible that the Phils would seriously give Carrasco some serious consideration.

Phils and Carrasco would best be served if he gets some seasoning at AAA, builds up some confidence, and is able to go if need by July.

Battle for the 5th spot in the rotation is won by Happ, who later is replaced in the season by Carrasco.

Kendrick and Stairs should be packaged together in a trade for a righthanded bat.

From the last thread in response to YBF:

FWIW, I would defend Utley if I found him clubbing baby seals...

I once had a conversation about what it would take for Utley to lose my support. I think it was down to either dumping puppies in boiling water or me walking in on Chase with my fiance...or some sick combination of the two.

****Kendrick and Stairs should be packaged together in a trade for a righthanded bat.****

Hopefully we would be able to get several bats for that price...preferably a full bag of them. I wasn't aware that bats were specifically made for leftys or rightys though...good to know.

I don't have any ill will toward Baldelli, and for his sake I hope that doctor's right, but if I was a GM I still wouldn't be too eager to sign him to an expensive and/or long-term deal. (suddenly during the middle of the FA period he gets a dramatically improved diagnosis?)

besides, that link off MLBTR is awfully short on actual information. for one thing, just from looking on wikipedia, "channelopathy" refers to a family of diseases, not a specific disease.

baby seals are a bunch of jerks. who needs em. now a second baseman who can hit...there's something we can all agree is valuable.

NEPP: If I walked in on Chase with my fiance I'd probably just try to join in.

I hope thats true about Baldelli. The guy is a pretty good player and it'd be great to see what he can do if he can stay relatively healthy for a season.

****NEPP: If I walked in on Chase with my fiance I'd probably just try to join in****

It depends, Is Chase's wife there too?

You guys are on a slippery slope with this conversation...

Anyway, back to reality, Its good news on Baldelli.

Intersting that not a single poster on Beerleaguer thinks that Chan Ho Park will open the season as 5th starter.

Hmmmmm.

But your GM told me I would...

I just HOPE he doesn't.. but this is the Phillies we are talking about, I would love me some .500 ball in April with Park posting a lustful 6.00+ ERA as the 5th starter... mhm warms my heart.

Baldelli: Is it too late to cancel Ibanez's contract? ha

I agree with AE that it is pretty odd that Baldelli is now getting another diagnosis right in the middle of Free Agency - after they said his last was finally the correct one after previous mistakes.

I still think he would have made a great LF platoon guy, and it would disappoint me if he ended up playing much of the season with his new treatment, and at a high level. But same thing with Lowe possibly being affordable - can't really blame the Phils at this point, all hindsight.

****NEPP: If I walked in on Chase with my fiance I'd probably just try to join in****

Someone save this for later blackmail.

Nepp - the baby seal and puppie comments had me laughing though.

Re: 5th spot - I think it will be a pretty open competition, but ultimately its Happs job to lose. At least I hope that is the case.

***Someone save this for later blackmail.***

In my defense, it was Truth Injection that said he'd join in with Chase and his fiance...I merely asked if Chase's wife would be involved too.


My guess is that barring a horrible spring that Happ is the #5...and I think he'll do okay in that role based on what he's shown so far.

Nepp- sorry I meant save it for blackmail fot Truth Injection. Too lazy to quote it myself.

I prefer Cole's brothers date that he brought to one of the playoff games. I can't remember which one, but she certainly was easy on the eyes.

Yeah that was crazy...so is Clay Bucholtz wife...it apparently pays to be a star pitching prospect.

On the Chase Utley clubs baby seals question:

It depends. Is he dispatching them with that short, sweet stroke he had last April, or the longer, looping one he adopted after he hurt his hip?

clout: when you say "everyone on beerleaguer", does that include you, or are you saying you're the only one who thinks Chopark will be starting the 5th game of the 09 season?

Im guessing the latter, and if so, its pretty pathetic that you observe yourself as not a part of beerleaguer. Because your always right and too smart? or is it something else i'm missing?

That's a good point, Alby. We wouldn't want Chase to get into any bad habits when he's bludgeoning animals to death.

Happy BAP day!

In Amaro I Trust! Here is a quote on Ibanez. By the way not trying to start another Burrell-Ibanez debate just want to talk solely about Ibanez at this point, because talking about Burrell is now pointless.

From the Daily news and the press conference yesterday:

"Ibanez has hit .305 with runners in scoring position in his career.

"One of the issues that we had was hitting with runners in scoring position, making contact and being able to drive in the runs we're supposed to drive in," Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said.

"I think he certainly fits the bill there. Not that Pat [Burrell] was the one guilty of it. As a team we just didn't do very well with runners in scoring position, driving in runs with less than two outs or with a man on third base. Any time we can add a player who can advance the cause there, I think it's an improvement.""

NEPP: I think the truth is that it PAYS to be a star pitcher's wife.

"Intersting that not a single poster on Beerleaguer thinks that Chan Ho Park will open the season as 5th starter."

A big NO, like I stated, just because HE says that doesn't mean it will happen. Happ or Kendrick will be the 2009 5th starter.

~tips cap to chaz~

Good point, sir!


To MVP: At least there is "logic" to that decision then. I don't think anyone thinks Ibanez isn't a good player...we just worry about UC putting them L/L/L in the middle of the order. Either way, its better than some crappy platoon...but then Burrell would have been better than a crappy platoon too. It seems that Pat wasn't gonna be back no matter what, for whatever reason.

thephaithful: I haven expressed no opinion about who will be the Phillies 5th starter. I'm sure you haven't observed this, but the consensus opinion on Beerleaguer is nearly always wrong. That's why I thought it interesting that not a single poster thinks Park will be the 5th starter.

Happy BAP day!

Season=over

Cole is an idiot i think. He'd be nailing much much much hotter and younger chicks for years, especially now after a WS MVP. Instead he locked into some 30yr reality TV star. good looking chick and all, but he definitely left some ass on the table.

Lets hope he settles like he did for a wife the same way he does for a long term deal.

PtB's example was much better:

Step 1: Nail every decent looking girl within 15 miles of Center City over the first 7 years of his career.

Step 2: Then settle down and get married.


Its that type of leadership we're gonna miss by not having Burrell on the roster next year.

clout: alright then, my 'guess' was wrong when i thought you were saying that you felt chopark would round out the rotation.

well chalk me up as another who person who hopes that he is used as a relief pitcher.

thephaithful: That is my wish as well.

NEPP, when you walk in on Chase...flip him a Sharpie and say. "Could you autograph that for me?"

BAP, was the Baldelli diagnoser Dr. House?

Willy From Hilly questioned jumping AA players to the big club instead of AAA players. The dirty little secret is that all your young future stars are playing for the AA club. AAA is for guys that are too old for AA ball, but not good enough to make it to the majors for an extended stay. AAA is where you store your temporary "fill in the holes" when a player gets injured for a short term players. AA is where your future stars are.

I meant Willy from Philly...sorry!

phaithful -
Your post on marital fidelity is especially edifying. Any advice on raising children?

per MLBTR: Lists all of the Mets options, with Lowe and Ollie Perez has plan A and A1, thne lists a slew of backup plans.

the interesting note: The decision on who to add to their rotiation will not be made this month.

So looks they're confident that Lowe and Perez are pretty much just waiting out there with no offers.

andy: Pray for a boy, and have him kicking footballs through uprights as soon as he can stand up.

****andy: Pray for a boy, and have him kicking footballs through uprights as soon as he can stand up.****

Screw that...pray that he's lefthanded...and if he's not, break his right arm forcing him to be. That way, he can make bank even if all he ends up as is a LOOGY.

So, hypothetically, if the Mets somehow sign Lowe and Perez, would we be in trouble at that point? I kinda think we would be.

Yer both wrong. Glue a catcher's mask to his face and make him bat lefty.

.

Oh, and teach him how to use a tweezer on his butt.

if the Mets sign Lowe and Perez? yeah, that's a very, very good rotation:

Santana, Lowe, Pelfrey, Perez, Maine/Niese

of course that's a big if. and their backup plans to Lowe and Perez--Wolf, Garland, Redding--represent a pretty enormous drop-off.

NEPP - It's BAP day - you're not supposed to indicate a mild possibility. Go all out with your pessimism:

Mets are probably signing Perez and Lowe, with their bullpen additions we are toast. Our FO has done nothing to match these likely additions by our cheif division rivals. By July we're out of it.

Like that.

just like the Phillies to give up on improving the 2009 team after making lateral--AT BEST--moves thus far this offseason. when Derek Lowe wins 25 games as a #2 starter, Daniel Murphy hits 30 home runs as a 2B, and Francisco Rodriguez breaks his own record by saving 67 games, we'll have to content ourselves with Raul Ibanez shattering Fred Clarke's 104-year old record for outfield errors (49), Brad Lidge blowing 8 saves just to the Cardinals when he rediscovers his abject terror of Albert Pujols, and Ryan Howard shocking the baseball world by striking out 248 times (and leading the majors in HR and RBI, but still).

With the vast improvements every other team has made, the Phillies will be lucky to win 40 games next year...total.

Andy - didn't you hear? Peavy deal is near completion, straight up for escobar. Atlanta will also sign Big Tex, Manny and Sheets.

We are a distant 3rd in the division.

we should pray that Atlanta signs Teixeira, because if the Nationals do instead, we'll be finishing fourth instead of third.

CY - Third nothing. FLA underacheived all year last year. We'll be lucky to be fourth. (After all we know how good Manny Acta is as a manager.)

Apparently the Red Sox just traded Youkilis, Pedroia, Papelbon and Beckett to the Mets for Luis Castillo and Fernando Tatis...and the BoSox agreed to pay a majority of the salaries.

EF - I read that article on Raul vs Pat defense. How do you think the bigger park effects how many put outs Raul has gotten over PTB? I would think that a larger OF would lead to more put outs.

Fallowfield - I especially liked this line from that article.

"I think we’ll be able to see it both from watching the games and in the statistics."

He's covering both clout (and virtually everyone) and tommyd.

Actually, that article makes the kool-aid taste even better with my spinach and cavatelli.

EFF: Good link and good article.

The fact that Ibanez led the AL last year is a bit of caution to that study. Although he may not be actually worse than Burrell, but you're telling me he's the BEST in the league? There is no way he covers more ground than all other LFs, with such documented poor speed. That part of that stat kind of shows me that you can't really use it as a direct correalation of Good Defender / Bad Defender.

I'm looking for that trade to ATL:
Howard for Kotchman, Francoeur, and Jo-jo Reyes; and a player to be named later - probably Jesus Sanchez' younger brother.

(b-a-p: This is really kinda fun. No wonder you engage in abject pessimism.)

CY: read one of the last ¶'s:

--Burrell, on the other hand, has played 2,226 2/3 innings in left and recorded 378 putouts (.1698) while other Phillies left fielders have played 681 2/3 innings and recorded 163 putouts (.2391 per inning (way more).--

thats a huge difference right there, haha. The site does the same comparison for Ibanez and proves that he has the same (slightly better) as replacment LF'er in the same ballpark.

Ibanez seems to be a huge fundamentals guy, so maybe reading the ball off the bat is one of his strengths that takes away from his less than stellar speed.

thephaithful -

Thanks. That is encouraging news.

Really, it couldn't have gotten worse in LF, and playing LF in CBP can't be that difficult. Maybe Cholly won't pull him in late innings. That would be a big plus of this signing. That and batting him 6th and we are looking good.

Wait - BAP day - He is coming out in the 6th and we will be getting dominated by LOOGYs all year. And he will pull a Matsui on opening day.

if you go to a Mariners blog and read some of their posts on Ibanez's defense, I think you will quickly come to the conclusion that reading flyballs is not his strength. (I posted a link to some GIFs from one blog, but it got eated by the spam filter.)

Yeah, as thephaithful, there's lots of info in that post-except that they didn't brake down Gnome's putouts per inning in there.

on second read: take a look at the names on the list of LF'ers playing the most innings. They are all horrible. Besdies DYoung, each one is considered All Bat / No glove. So maybe having a stiff in LF is just business as usual.

soriano, holliday, braun, manny, etc.

The advantage of having Bruntlett in left is that when he heads for a flyball the little bells on his shoes twinkle so cheerfully.

I think a BLer just called in to 610.

He was calling for Amaro's job, complaining that the phillies had a budget that only went up from last yr.'s 105 mil to 140 this year after arbitrations for everyone including howard and Hamels. Finally didn't know why we can't we be like the yankees and spend 260 a yr.. Then finishes by saying that the WS isn't enough because we were lucky to win it. WOW!

I guess you can guess Gargano laughed in his face and hung up on him.

mvp - you were being so good.

I am sure anyone on here could tell you why we can't spend like the NYY, and why a World Series is so special

CY:

I was mainly talking in regards to the amaro firing thing.

phaithful - It's a baseball tradition to stuff your "pure hitters" and TTO guys in LF and 1B. Very few guys make it as "defensive left fielders." (Though there are some "defensive first basemen." While usually the latter can at least hit for average, there are the occasional Tommy Huttons out there.)

yeah so we may be over exaggerating the fact that we don't have a gold glover roaming in font of the 140s section.

by the way - just got in on my work's season tickets, sec 142 row 2 seat 1-2. Pretty pumped!! Now i need to win the lottery so I can go to opening night.

How would you guys feel about a kendrick and coste for polanco trade?

thephaitful:

Sweet, good for you man, it is going to be another good year.

You know whats hilarious? Adam Eaton

Seriously, Adam Eaton has a decent chance to be the #5 starter out of spring training. He had a solid start last year and wasn't bad until July. He's well-rested, entering a contract year, and could be motivated to redeem himself. I'm not saying Adam Eaton will be an average pitcher for us, but I wouldn't be surprised if he won the job with a strong spring training. Eaton is clearly the most established candidate for the job, and certainly has enough talent, so it wouldn't shock me if he started a few games at the beginning of the year.

Am I wrong to assume that SOME club will take the Phils up on their supposed offer to dump Eaton if that club pays $1 mil of his salary this year?

baxter: it doesnt hurt that he's on the book for 8.5mil either.

Happy BAP Day everyone!

I think there's a real possibility that the Phils finish 6th in the NL East this year.

Apparently Selig just proposed a Division re-alignment that will go into effect this upcoming season. The Red Sox & Yankees are moving to the NL East and the Marlins and Nationals are going to the AL East...NOT GOOD.

myp: You learned how to use a phone? Congratulations are in order!!

"myp: You learned how to use a phone? Congratulations are in order!!"

What?

Maybe he meant you learned how to use a radio? Or that you were the caller (but that doesn't make sense)

What are you guys thinking about a lineup? Does Ibanez fit 5th or 6th. Regardless of the starter, 3-4-5 lefties will come to get you by time the bullpen comes in.

I thought Werth as #5 at first, but since he hits much better vs LHP, I'm thinking Victorino in the #5 hole vs RHP. He seemed to pace the bottom of the lineup pretty well last year when Burrell moved up to the #3 spot, and should do even better with Ibanez hitting behind him.

(most of) Our desire for victorino to become a small ball situational hitter out of the #2 hole is fading pretty quickly. And he developed this "pesky" persona to opposing teams last year, that might fit well behind Howard.

thephaithful:

My lineup with this roster would look like this...

Rollins
Vic
Utley
Howard
Werth
Ibanez
Feliz
Ruiz
Pitcher

I don't think it's smart to lineup our three lefties together.

Of course, in the spirit of BAP Day, it won't matter where we put them because this front office has failed to make us better. Season = Over.

Re: Mets rotation

I've heard some on hear fear the Mets signing Lowe and Perez, but the speculation is that their Plan A is one or the other, not both. And if not them, then Plan B for that rotation spot is Garland or Wolf (or maybe Redding).

The fifth spot would be Jon Niese or a retread like Garcia, Colon or Milton.

I too am a proponent of Vic in the 5 hole...as unconventional as it is to have a speedy guy there.

CJ - I think that was a BAP day scenario.

CY: But of course!

NEPP: So you'd prefer Werth in the 2-hole?

EF: The article is intersting but wrong conclusions can easily be drawn from it. Some factors:

1. LF at Safeco is much larger than at CBP. Larger area, more fly balls.
2. Seattle's pitching staff threw more flyouts than Phila.'s staff.
3. Safeco is a tough place to hit a HR. CBP is easier. Fewer HRs to LF means more flyouts to LF and vice versa.
4. Ibanez played more innings in LF than anyone.

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