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Wednesday, December 10, 2008

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JW: Plus it could light a fire under Chooch, who had nothing to fear from Coste.

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal believes the Mets would get J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed and Sean Green from the Mariners in the proposed three-team deal. The Indians get Joe Smith from the Mets and Luis Valbuena from the Mariners. Seattle would get Franklin Gutierrez from Cleveland and Aaron Heilman, Mike Carp and Endy Chavez from the Mets, making it a nine-player deal.

Right. And I added one more point that's probably not apparent: Chooch gets a backup who's over two years younger.

some people are thinking maybe this is the first step of the peavy deal?

What a blockbuster trade! Seriously, was this even necessary? Isn't Lou Marsen supposed to be the next big thing? All this says to me is that the Iron Pigs have a new catcher! Marsen is a much better candidate for the job with the big club I think.

clout: the earth was known to be round well before the 16th century. Aristotle was actually one of the first to popularize the idea, and that was around 350 BC. You don't even know that and I'm supposed to take your opinion on prospects seriously?

Those complaining about Amaro not making a big move are being petty and premature. If the Phillies not making a big signing/trade within two months of their championship causes you to lose some "World Series good will" then nothing will ever make you happy, because you don't want to be.

Greg V: Marson will spend the season at AAA... where he likely belongs.

So we think Coste gets non-tendered, Paulino starts the year as the backup, and Marson is the everyday catcher at Lehigh Valley?

I was so happy to get back online and see this from MLBTradeRumors.com:

"There was some goofy Carlos Carrasco/Jason Donald stuff we didn't link to today, and that was shot down."

Steve Phillips reputation is intact!

If Marson is the real deal and emerges this year and Ruiz can hit .250 or so in the first half, Paulino might free Ruiz off to be some nice tradebait at the deadline to fill another need. That's all speculation. I like what Chooch brings to the team a lot.

If he's not flipped, I can't imagine them carrying three catchers. Do they let Marson compete with Paulino in ST? Do they keep Coste for ST or try to package him in a deal somewhere before then? Can they stash Coste at AAA again next year?

Jack: Sounds about right to me... unless the Phils think there is a market to flip Coste for something... anything...

CJ: Agree on Marson. I like him a lot, as he's a catcher who can both hit and draw a walk, but I feel he's been overrated this year due to an obnoxious BABIP pushing his average up.

I can live with K-Rod, but with Putz setting him up? And Heilman out the door?

Omar is going balls to the wall.

Can't complain about the Paulino deal but the issue is the Phils still haven't filled a single important need this offseason while the Mets have now filled 2.

Phils need in order yet:

1. No. 4 starting pitcher
2. right-handed OF bat with some gets on base has some power
3. Insurance policy for Utley/Feliz
4. Bullpen arm

That is assuming the Phils fill the 2 or 3 spots on the roster internally including the No. 5 starter and another positional player.

MLB.com's Jim Street confirmed the deal. The Mariners give up Putz, Green, and Reed and get Heilman, Chavez, Carp, and Gutierrez. The Indians give up Gutierrez and get Valbuena and Smith. The Mets give up Heilman, Chavez, Carp, and Smith to get Putz, Green, and Reed.

Mets got Putz, bring on the trolls!

Mets officially got Putz. That's a legitimate back end of the bullpen Minaya just put together. I don't want to say I'm rooting for arm injuries, but...

MG: Remember... it's not a race. The winner isn't who addresses their needs the most quickly.

In essense, the Mets dealt Heilman and Carp for JJ Putz. They also swapped backup outfielders and righty specialists.

Putz is an injury risk but man he fills a big need and the Mets frankly didn't leverage all that much to get him.

If Mets sign another least 1 more FA bullpen arm (and all the indications I have seen are that they are pursuing a couple of guys who will sign 1-yr with upside potential) and another solid starter, the Mets will have had a very nice offseason.

CJ - We'll see as there are options on the market yet but haven't exactly seen much in the way of a coherent strategy by Amaro so far.

MG: I rank the Mets holes like so:

1. #3 or #4 starter (depending on what you think of Maine)
2. #5 starter
3. Bullpen arm
4. Lefty hitting LF

MG: How do you know the strategy isn't coherent? You can't exactly rely on the rumors which are generally all over the place regardless of the team.

Putz and K-Rod definitely can change a losing culture fast. It could be lights out come the 8th inning now, plus they dump that bum Heilman. I can hear the trolls marching towards us right now....

By the way, I'm still preaching patience with Amaro. I hope there is a plan at work and I'm not passing judgment until the offseason is over. Give the man some time. Don't forget we had a month less to prepare than the Mets (hehe).

That's legit. Almost as nice as Madson and Lidge. Putz is better than KRod when healthy, interesting and great moves by Omar. I wonder what Rube's gonna do to counter, Derek Lowe would be very nice.

Who cares? They still have to play the games.

Last time I checked, the Phils won the World Series this year.

The 2009 World Series isn't won in December 2008. Games still have to be played.

Would I like to see some moves? Sure. I just don't want Amaro going and trying to compete with Minaya, who has made a couple of very solid moves. Give credit where it's due.

Marathon. Not a sprint.

Chan Ho Park rumors downtown. A soild pick up for the bullpen or even a starter.

Hey guys mlbtraderumors.com is reporting phils are close to signing Chan Ho Park as a starter? Actually Tim Brown of yahoo sports is reporting it.

The Mets were going to be World Champs when they got Wagner. That didn't work.

The Mets were going to be World Champs when they got Santana. That didn't work.

The Mets are now banking on a closer, who lost a lot of velocity at the end of last year and a 8th inning guy, who was hurt and might have trouble dealing with NY pressure.

We'll see how this works. As long as the same chokers are in the everyday lineup, does it really matter?

As for this trade, not a real big deal. Jaramillo had no future here and now Coste likely doesn't either.

Marson will push for playing time because he does one thing, neither Ruiz or Paulino does....he hits.

Chan Ho Park. interesting. 95 ip, 97 H, 36 BB, 79 K, 3.40 ERA in '08. Marcel proj - 80 ip, 84 h, 30 BB, 62 K, 4.39 ERA in '09. His 7.46 K/9 in '08 was heading towards his pre 02 levels and the dramatic avg velocity increase on his fastball might bear that out. 89.3mph in '05, 89.5 mph in'06, 88.4mph in '07, and now 92.6mph in 08. GB% peaked last year too at 50.9%.

Big moves by Omar. The Mets have put together a very nice back-end to their bullpen. We'll have to see how healthy they stay, but assuming good health, that's pretty nasty. However, one pitcher is coming off an arm injury and one has a very violent delivery. Rodriguez also has decreased velocity. This is a strong play by the Mets, but it does come with a bit of risk. They didn't give up much to get Putz though.

Maybe Chan Ho Park will be the next Chad Durbin.

Plus, this goes along with my thinking on MG's bullets that the Phils could use a 6th starter/long relief addition like Durbin was supposed to be and Eaton failed at. as an aside, LAD park to PHL park will impact his numbers.

Adding Paulino and Park, means more catching and bullpen help, are available to someone.

Park is not coming here to start. He will slide into a "Durbin-like" role, I would guess. Capable of pitching multiple innings, and making a spot start, if need be.

But, these 2 relatively minor moves, tell me, that a pretty big trade is coming soon. One, that will likely get the Phils the right handed bat (and LF) that they sorely need. Stay tuned.

Once they add the right-handed hitting LF, their team will be about set for 09'. Moyer will be the big question mark. Once he comes to his senses, and figuers out the contract he wants is not out there, he probably comes back, at the Phils price.

One question I would have, is what role Jenkins has next year. I have seen Dobbs name, as the probable platoon man (if they do platoon) in LF. I would think, if Jenkins can bounce back and get healthy, that he might be more likely out there; leaving Dobbs to remain in his comfortable role, as the best pinch-hitter in baseball and the occasional starter at 3B.

CJ - Let me rephrase that. Amaro has been emphasizing pitching and defense this season. If there has been one thing he has repeatedly stated, it was that he wanted to get pitching.

Now resigning Eyre and trading for Paulino aren't bad moves but maintain the status quo at best. Still, it appears that Amaro was relying upon Moyer to come back at a reasonable amount and that likely isn't coming true. Even if that is the case, I still don't see where/how this team upgrades it pitching as Amaro is touting as the key to the offseason.

Park as a 6th/7th inning reliever - fine. Park as the 4th starter - nein.

Chan Ho Park could be this year's version of Chad Durbin. I like this signing as long as they keep him in the bullpen.

I also like the Paulino deal. Now the Phillies can trade Coste and give Marson some time at AAA until he is ready.

Mets definitely made some interesting moves. Is Krods velocity drop recent? I thought it had been down for a couple seasons. Is putz healthy?

I'm not really sure what the Paulino trade means -- other than the obvious fact that Coste is a goner. If Marson gets invited to spring training and tears it up, he could still make the opening day roster & Paulino could either be traded or provide organizational depth at AAA. On the other side of the spectrum, if Marson goes to AAA and Ruiz stinks it up again, I could easily see Paulino being our starting catcher for most of 2009.

If Paulino were some kind of superstar, we wouldn't have gotten him for Jason Jaramillo. But the bottom line is that we swapped catchers and clearly came away with the better of the 2 players. I don't know what the trade portends for our 2009 roster, but if you can trade away one player in return for an obviously better one, there's no reason not to do it. In that regard, the trade very much falls into the same category as the Golson-Mayberry swap. It's not likely to make much of an impact, but there's really nothing there to criticize. Which is too bad because I was really looking forward to bashing Ruben Amaro tonight.

From the last thread . . . someone (alby maybe) pondered whether Paulino was hurt last year, and someone else (maybe NEPP) suggested that he was traded because he's arbitration eligible.

Paulino may have had some injury issues last year, but I also know that he fell out of favor with the Pirates' management because they felt he had an attitude problem. This, coupled with his bad start, prompted them to demote him to AAA, where he hit .306.

According to scout.com the Padres have asked Jake Peavy if he is willing to waive his NTC for the Phillies. Ofcourse Peavy coming to the Phils is still a long shot, I maintain it is not completely impossible.

http://phillies.scout.com/2/820094.html

"For those who don’t have access, the question and response were:"

[Comment From D Patrone]
You actually have heard he is considering the Phils?

3:28 Chuck Hixson: From what I’ve heard, the Padres have asked him to consider four teams. The Braves were one, the Cubs another and the Phillies are the third. What I haven’t heard is whether he would come to Philly.

The Chan Ho Park move, if true, is typical Phillies. It's remarkable to me that this guy is still in the league considering that he pitched 6 straight Eaton-esque seasons between 2002 & 2007. He did manage to rehabilitate his career last year, mostly out of the bullpen, but his peripherals were still pretty bad. The most I'd ever give this guy would be a minor league contract. If they are even remotely entertaining the thought of putting him in their starting rotation, that is the single nuttiest idea I have ever heard.

So far I like the moves Amaro is making. Nothing flashing but he has done some positive minor trades. I think we have gotten the better end of both trades.

Bed Beard~

I follow the Phils for the same reason you do. You want to rip me if you disagree with me fine. Don't rip me because I speak the truth. Jr. has done nothing of note so far. Minaya has. That's all I said and that's truth.

Will Amaro do bigger and better things? I don't know. Since your the team's best and biggest phan, why don't you look into your crystal ball and tell everyone ok?

You read all of everyone's comments. I asked the question: How are the Phils going to replace Moyer's 16 wins and Burrell's offensive production? You know what you don't have the answers and so far niether does Amaro does he?

Amd I told you what the Phils' PR spin would be when they tried things and fail. So you watch and see. Me? I'll just keep doing what I always do. You do the same.

""Breaking news: Phillies swap catchers with Pirates
Ronny Paulino was acquired from Pittsburgh today for Jason Jaramillo.""


AWH: Yawns.

Gion - Yeah. The 24th/25th man on the roster has been might have upgraded in Paulino trade. As for the Golson-Mayberry trade, it is unlikely that Mayberry sees any meaningful time with the Phils in 2009 and if he does it likely mean the Phils aren't doing well.

DPatrone - Agreed but you do have to see want Amaro does the rest of the offseason. Given that this offseason has been a bit slower to unfold than others, I am say you will have a really good idea by about 2nd week of Jan what this roster is largely going to look like Opening Day.

That said, I do think the Phils' FO are going to deploy their typical offseason BS. Already indications that is the case with Lowe. Hopefully I am wrong but we will see.

I really like the Paulino acquisition and the Park acquisition. Regarding Paulino, it was clear that Coste wasn't gonna be the backup in 09 and its not the phillies style to count on an unknown like Marson (except of course in the rotation, see: Floyd/Madson). Plus, if Marson struggled at the MLB level who do you turn to, Jaramillo? Paulino allows us breathing room with Marson, and if Marson plays so well that he forces the teams hand, we have a decent chip at the trading deadline in Paulino or Ruiz or even Marson himself. A Paulino/Ruiz tandom ain't half bad, and would seemingly give us the freedom to explore Marson's (in the right trade) with Paulino/Ruiz holding the fort down until D'Arnaud is ready (yes yes I know the odds are against D'Arnaud).

As for Park, the signing reminds me a lot of the Ryan Franklin signing a couple years back. The team makes statements about him being a potential starter, and he may indeed fight for a spot in spring training, but he likely ends up in the 6th/7th inning role and as a spot starter. Both these moves have Gillick written all over them.

Also, I like Amaro's strategy of clearing out the riff-raff and attempting to gain some value for it. First casualties are Golson and Jaramillo, with Eaton to be sold to the lowest bidder, and Kendrick and Coste appearing in trade rumors.

Let's not get over-excited about Park. This guy has been an absolute disaster as a starter the past few years. Even last year, he was very mediocre outside of Chavez Ravine and was prone to have bouts of prolonged wildness which can be an issue coming out of the bullpen (especially with runners on base).

If the Phils are relying upon him to be a No. 4 or 5 starter coming out of spring training, that is not a good sign.

If the Phils are bringing him in as a right-handed arm to round out bullpen depth, then it is a decent signing.

I can see why the phillies like DeRosa. Utley and Feliz are major injury concerns, and the outfield is unsettled. I think DeRosa is an outstanding acquisition if he is used as a utility regular. This implies that the phillies would acquire another outfield bat. As much as I'd love to see Delmon Young land here, I'd be hesitant to give up Donald in any deal given our weakness at 3B long-term and the rise of Taylor/Brown (insert standard caveat on planning around low-level minor leaguers here), though clearly Young is far superior talent. If we can pickup Juan Rivera in addition to DeRosa we would have a truly versatile lineup. Of course in this scenario, I envision DeRosa starting the year at 2B, then primarily platooning with Feliz in an offense/defense platoon in addition to spelling Rivera and Werth in the outfield. Dobbs could also see a good bit of time in LF in this scenario. Thus our roster would look something like this:

SS Rollins
3B DeRosa
2B Utley
1B Howard
RF Werth/Rivera
CF Vic
LF Werth/Rivera/Dobbs
C Ruiz/Paulino

Bench:
Dobbs
Paulino
Jenkins
Feliz
*Jerry Hairston would be another good fit for the bench since he can run and play CF in addition to SS/2B/3B/LF/RF

Rotation:
Hamels
Myers
Blanton
Happ/Carrasco/Park/Moyer?

Clearly, we need to acquire another solid starter, whether he's 46 or someone younger

Bullpen
Lidge
Madson
Romero
Park
Durbin
Eyre
Condrey...?

Head over to Phuture Phillies:

Paulino's defensive prowess is overrated.
Guy who covers the Pirates on a frequent basis cites that Paulino supposedly calls a good game (whatever that means) and can throw out runners fairly well. However, he can't block balls in the dirt or catch balls/block the plate well.

Plus, the Pirates' fan moniker for Paulino was "Joggin Ronny." If Paulino shows up out of shape or doesn't hustle, he is going to find that the Philly fans are brutal. I still remember when I was at a home game two years ago when the fans booed Barajas mightly just because he was going from the dugout to the bullpen.

Reading Stark's take on the Mets latest first place finish in the Hot Stove League Eastern Division, he praises the stats of the new closers they have pointing out that AL lineups are nine deep. Do NL closers usually face a lot of pitchers in their save opportunities?

AM Thoughts:
*Paulino is better than Jaramillo. Paulino is younger than Coste and possibly better and still has upside, so it was a good deal.

*Chan Ho Park for the bullpen = okay. Chan Ho Park for the rotation = Oh, Hell No!

*John Parrish might sign a minor league deal, and that's a perfect guy to have in Triple A as insurance should a reliever go down with injury.

*People can be in denial all they want, but the Mets just have a GREAT 2 days. Adding K-Rod and Putz while purging themselves of Endy Chavez and Aaron Heilman.

There's no denying the Mets often have really good Teams On Paper.

But you gotta wonder what these teams know about the closers they're giving the Mets...

Yet questions linger regarding K-Rod. Scouts wonder if his violent, sprawling delivery will lead to injury or a breakdown in mechanics at some point, and perhaps more significantly, they point to a decrease in velocity the last couple of seasons as potential cause for concern.

"His change-up has become his out pitch and he can be dominant with it," one AL scout said. "But he was throwing 95 (mph) a few years ago and now he tops out at 92. It's not alarming, but it is cause for some concern, because he's still pretty young (27 in January). If he loses more off the fastball, the change-up will become less edominant."

In another article, the Mets said this about KRod:

"His velocity was down and he had back-to-back years of heavy use," the source said. "The history in those cases for most guys is that it catches up to you."

Sure, maybe they're just spinning for negotiation, but they have some experience with closers breaking down.

As for Putz, I'm guessing most pitchers who leave parks like Seattle suddenly see their stats get worse.

Jaramillo hit the lottery. Going to the Pirates was the best trade for him since John Russell was high on him with his years managing the Red Barons and the Ottawa Lynx. Russell knows what he can do and will give him a good chance to make the roster this year.

Yo, new thread.

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