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Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Comments

Last thread I suggested that, rather than Ordonez, the LF to pursue (you know, since the team is rather committed to letting Burrell walk because, um, well, um...) might be Matt Holliday. Taking a look at Colorado's roster leads me to believe cost might be more substantial than the Phils could bear. Colorado's needs, basically, are for 1) a center fielder; 2) a first baseman; and 3) a RHSP. (It does not improve the scenario to think that they'd slide Atkins to 1B and Stewart to 3B; we don't have a tradeable 2B any more.)

Some (not me) might suggest a package which sends Howard to CO for Holliday and Atkins. (Howard would be an absolute monster - like he's not already, Andy - with home games in Coors.) But I think the Phils will hold onto him, whatever they lose in the arb hearing this time.

I'm willing to bet they make, instead, a half-hearted attempt at the human game board and then platoon Jenkins and Golson. (Happy days are here again!) (Because we'll have something to moan about.)

Also: if they do not pursue Derek Lowe with abandon, they are missing the great opportunity they missed the last time. he matches with CBP about as well as anyone. And as we saw, it is pitching which prevails in the post season.

Calling Larry Bowa....calling....

I for one am not sad to see Steve Smith sent packing. Time to promote Eric Valent!

I agree Derek Lowe seems like a perfect fit for Philly being the ground ball inducing machine he is, but his price will be hefty and it's doubtful the Phils will open the purse that much.

On leftfield- a platoon of Jenkins/Stairs/Golson would cause me to committ suicide. I know Holliday and Ordonez are pipedreams, but Rube has got to settle this outfield situation externally, because what we have internally isn't all that great or even close to being good.

Time to revert to the traditional Beerleaguer template, or does everyone like this one?

Weitzel- I vote to keep this red template through the offseason then go back to original once spring training starts.

Update on the SI covers over all our championships...

The current SI cover is the only "Phillies Win" cover in their history.

In November of 1980, Alberto Salazar was on the cover. No corner/inset picture on the Phils.

JW - keep this one until we are no longer World F***ing Champions

I second GM-Carson.

Like it. Keep it. The color works for the holidays too.

I vote to keep up the WPHC banner up until at least midseason 09.

I'd be fine with this template through the offseason. Heck, until some other teams pries that trophy out of the Phils' hands.

Nah..why dont we keep the WS banner and coloring up for a bit...say until Opening Day 2009. I think we've earned that much.

Keep it up until the season starts, in case any trolls stop by and forget how 2008 ended.

Does anyone feel that the Smith firing is just the beginning of a coaching staff overhaul? I don't necessarily mean with the big club, but it seems that something is in the works. The minor league system has not been much to write home about (at least record-wise) and, if I recall correctly, Gillick made some changes at Reading before he left (although I could be mistaken). Does anyone in the know have any insight?

I also say keep it until Opening Day. Then change it back as a reminder that there is work once again to be done.

Lopes wasn't at the parade due to "personal reasons" In the light of the Smith firing, that takes new significance...Hopefully another team doesnt snare Lopes...He's been huge working with Jimmy, Vic, Werth and even Utley on the running game. Losing him would hurt.

R.Billingsly: The Smith firing was Manuel's call. He wouldn't have any say on the rest of the organization. I don't see anyone else getting fired on the major league staff so it's not likely to be the start of some bigger overhaul. If an overhaul happens it will be completely unrelated to the Smith firing.

I also agree with the sentiment that the WS banner remains until Opening Day. I like opening Beerleaguer and seeing the bunting and "2008 World Champions," but like CJ said once the season starts, there is work to be done.

CJ: I understand that. I guess I was commenting more on the fact that Gillick shook things up in Reading before he left.

CJ: I re-read my post and it stunk. Sorry for the confusion. The Smith firing got me thinking about the Reading firings (if there were any). I didn't get my point across very well.

I say keep the Red and the "2008 World Champion" header at least thru the off-season...dontcha think?

As for Smith's canning. I am all for it. It shows we have a formula we are sticking to it. It shows we have a strong sense of leadership that is saying 'this is how things are done'. We want a certain type of personality and Smith is not one of that type.

to Jimmie J.'s post- Bowa would not fit in this formula either.

Zolecki says that Smith was suspended twice for on field incidents which upset Manuel.

I wonder what he did ?
Anybody remember?

It's easy to criticise sending /holding runners, but it sounds like there is more to it than that.

re: going after Derek Lowe... I hated the way he pitched against the Phils in the playoffs. He seemed very weak mentally.

Keep current banner at least until opening day. Hell, keep 2008 World Champions all season, then, through the post season until there is a 2009 Champion.

Speaking of SI, how about Brad Lidge for Sportsman of the Year?

"Speaking of SI, how about Brad Lidge for Sportsman of the Year?"

Somewhere around zero chance. Michael Phelps should have that one pretty much wrapped up.

Weak mentally? In Game 1, he completely shut them down except for the 2 homeruns. In Game 4, he pitched 5 solid innings despite having just 3 days rest. He has won 6 post-season games, has a 3.33 ERA in the playoffs, won all 3 clinching games in the 2004 playoffs, and once started a World Series game on 2 days rest & got the win. He is one of the best big-game pitchers around & would be a huge addition to the Phillies' staff.

I agree with the majority sentiment: keep this template until opening day. But I wouldn't stop there. Is there a way that some computer-savy Beerleaguer poster can hack into Mets blog and permanently affix this template to their website? I think that would be a fantastic way of forever memorializing the Phillies' 2008 season.

I'd sort of like to see our pennant/championship flags running down the side of the site:

1915, 1950, 1980, 1983, 1993, 2008

Sorta like CBP's outfield.

I agree about keeping the template up. I was wondering if there was some modifier you could add to "World Champions," though...I just can't think of one which is adequate for the job...

Andy- Uts may be able to help you find the right words.

Ditto to GM Carson's idea on the banner. It might be a while before another one of those is raised, so why rush to take it down?

Can't argue with the release of Smith. I know Ryan Howard will not be Albert Pujols in the field, but I believe he has the athletic ability to cut down significantly on his errors. Utley did it by hard work. I know Howard may not be Utley either, but the Phils 2B, SS, and 3B (Feliz) seem like a pretty formidable combination in the field. If Howard could get to par, it would be one more chink taken out of the Phils' armor.

Don't know what if anything is up with Lopes, but I sure agree that losing him would hurt. He may have manager potential in him. Boy, I used to hate him when he played with the Dodgers (the respecting type of loathing - he was a good, tough, show you no quarter type player), but I love him now.

Bob: I don't know if you already knew this, but Lopes already was a manager, for the Brewers from 2000 to 2002. I think he's a great first base coach, and he knows it; we shouldn't worry about him going anywhere.

I don't want Lowe. Hell, if we're going to be overly concerned about sinker ball pitchers, I'd rather them invest the money elsewhere and give Kendrick another shot at it.

Keep the template until spring training or opening day, JW.

Must the Ryan Howard trade rumors continue?He's not going anywhere for at least 3 years. The Phillies will make some moves this off-season, but none will include Howard.(unless its a long-term contract)Until he's a little closer to free agency, its not even worth discussing.

Speaking of coaches, does anyone know what the deal is with Ramon Henderson or if he'll be back next season?

I would suggest the BL template be kept until pitchers and catchers report, rather than Opening Day. Because that's REALLY when the hard work starts on a repeat effort. Opening Day is too late.

"He's not going anywhere for at least 3 years"

Not sure I believe that.

454 fine citizens of the United States of America voted for Phillies for president. Why the hell are the Phils listed as Libertarians though?

I cant remember exactly, but I do remember Steve Smith 'showing up' someone when they ran through the stop sign, and im pretty sure it was late into the season too. I have this vague memory of someone rounding the base wildly and running past Smith, but ended up scoring due to a badhop or an overthrow or something. Anyone else remember? I'm thinking early September-ish. But i do remember saying to myself, F you Steve Smith, just sit there and shut up - after the camera got a shot of him throwing a little hissyfit.

Bubba, I was able to find info regarding one incident in late August in which Smith was suspended for two games after getting ejected from a game against the Cubs, but it really doesn't go into much detail.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3569884

Quote from Charlie in today's DN, regarding potential loss of Burrell:

"We've got to get a righthand hitter," Manuel said. "Ruben and I were talking about that. If we don't get Burrell back, we've got to get another righthand hitter. I mean we have to, to balance out our lineup."

Nice to see Charlie on the same page as a few Beerleaguer posters as opposed to those who claim that the exisiting team has plenty of offense and could get by just fine with a Stairs/Jenkins/Golson arrangement.

Carson - that's unbelievable. I voted Barack, but if the Phils were able to make it onto a real, national list, I feel like I've wasted my vote.

Hahaha damn it, it's a real person. He's still obviously very qualified.

Thanks for the replies on Steve Smith- I hate to see anybody lose their job, but maybe we will get an upgrade at third base coach- it did seem like there were some unexplainable stop and go calls made.

I think a third base coach has to have a thick skin- you are very visible when you make bad decisions.

I don't want Lowe. Hell, if we're going to be overly concerned about sinker ball pitchers, I'd rather them invest the money elsewhere and give Kendrick another shot at it.

Lowe and Kendrick are not at all on the same level when it comes to GB tendencies. Lowe is one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in baseball (3rd in the ML among guys who pitched at least 100 innings) while Kendrick is really only a few ticks above average. not to mention Lowe actually has a good strikeout rate and much, much better control.

J. Weitzel,
Please keep the current template for now. I have waited a long time and wish to bask in the glory for a bit longer while it is ours for the basking. I would not mind if it stayed up until the Phils are no longer defending champions. (Knocked out of the playoffs) But if you want to take it down at the start of the next season or when pitchers and catchers report, that will be fine for me. I'd like to see it stay 'til the end of the year. They are the '08 champs, why not celebrate until '08 is over?

Shane

ms26, thanks for the heads up, and I think you are probably right about him not going anywhere.

Was it only a week ago that we were all nerves about the resumption of Game 5 ??

I understand that there's room for disagreement on things like: what to do about Burrell & Moyer; whether to trade prospects for Magglio Ordonez; whether the Phillies could get by with a Geoff Jenkins platoon in the OF; or even whether Pedro Feliz is a viable third baseman. But I find myself at a loss to explain how any rational-thinking Phillies fan can NOT think that Derek Lowe would be a great addition to our starting rotation.

Magglio Ordonez??? He has 3 years and 48 million left on his contract, is 4 years older than Burrell, will cost prospects, and is more injury prone than Burrell. You could get Burrell cheaper than that with the same OBP and SLG, Maggs hits for better AVG though. Not a fan of this proposed trade.

As someone said earlier you have 2 or 3 more years left with this group. Sign Burrell and trade the farm for Roy Halladay and try to win 1 or 2 more WS with these guys.

Also, just because Lopes wasn't exactly a rousing success as Brewers manager does not mean that no one will give him another chance. Retreads are pretty much the order of the day when it comes to hiring managers. Considering the Phillies' overall success and, more specifically, Lopes' success as a first base coach, I would put the odds at better than 50-50 that he'll land another managing gig within the next 2 to 3 years. Off the top of my head, however, I can't think of any current managerial vacancies. If a team were planning to fire its manager, it would probably have already done so by now.

Derek Lowe HAS to be on the Phils radar. He's a proven pitcher, with a great sinker that would fit great in our rotation. you got Hamels as your dominant lefty, myers as your power righty, moyer as your junkball lefty, and then lowe as your sinker righty, and thne blanton would be your 4pitch type righty. Thats a very nice balanced rotation I believe. I would go Hamels-Lowe-Myers-Moyer-Blanton

After more thought and reflection on the BL World Champions banner, I feel that since it took 28 years to win the next World Series Championship, the BL World Champions banner should remain up for the lesser of 28 years, or when we win the next one. This thought fully complies with the BL negative Phillies psychosis exibited by most BL readers and posters.

So Taguchi was cut today - dont know if thats old news or not.

I might have missed it, but has anyone estimated what the Phillies payroll will be for 2009, assuming that arbitration is accepted by Howard, Hamels, & others?

stjoe: I think MLBTraderumors.com had a prediction of $110mil - a slight increase, that was including Moyer, losing Burrell, and acquiring a 2nd teir right handed bat. They are supposingly doing a Offseaon Outlook on the Phils this Friday, so I'd suggest keeping that in mind.

@JW -- keep the template until opening day at the latest. I don't want to see this same banner in 2016 when President Palin is dropping the puck at the People's Bank of China Center.

Taguchi was released because he still has OPTIONS left, and declining the option still kept him in Phillies possesion. The Phillies still retain the rights to Iguchi and could return next year. Which might make sense if they decide to move Dobbs to start LF and you need another middle infielder. eek.

I agree with the sentiment that the banner stay up until someone de-thrones the Phils.

Lots to think about in the off-season but the base is there to continue to succeed with Ut, Howard, Hamels, Rollins, Vic, Myers, Madson, Lidge, Werth, Ruiz, Romero and Blanton.

To replace just one position player and maybe a few BP arms in the offseason after winning the WS is a good position to be in.

The young guys will help for sure...how about Donald platooning in LF with Jenkins/Stairs/Dobbs next year until 3b opens up in 2010?

I wish people would stop talking about a platoon in LF involving Golson. Don't you realize that he may NEVER be able to contribute? He strikes out too much. Until he learns to put the ball in play more consistently, he is not an option. Until he does, it doesn't matter if he runs like Vince Coleman it's not gonna happen.

I hope they sign Burrell but I think it will take 3 years at about $42 million to keep him.

Anyone talking with a straight face about a platoon in LF involving Donald, Golson, Jenkins and Stairs better not be advocating that we keep the World Champions border on this site. It only serves to subject us to some serious ridicule and embarassment next year, as there is about a 0% chance that this team will be competitive enough to contend again.

mike: Among the gazillion other things needed, I believe it may have been MG who suggested that acquiring a decent middle infielder with a little more bat pop than Bruntlett would really help provide some rest for Utley in particular. Utley did struggle at the plate in the WS but he did show a flash of his normal power with the home runs and looked fresher in the field to me. Don't know if you can quantify it, but I thought the time off probably helped him.

There are other priorities for sure. And Bruntlett did contribute at times to the success of the team in the stretch run.

However, any thought of Taguchi playing a significant role next year are as scary as the thought of a Jenkins/Stairs platoon roaming left field.

I was going through the archives of my blog and found this analysis of Shane Victorino from January of 2007.

"Victorino goes balls-out in his effort at bat, on the bases, and in the field, which makes him a fun player to watch. As fans and therefore critics, we find faults with almost all players, and Shane's is his plate discipline, but hey we can't all be Bobby Abreu. I do not expect Victorino to jack 20 homeruns or bat .300, but I do expect him to play an amazing right field (of Gold Glove merit) and produce respectable numbers at the plate (.280, 12 homeruns, 90 runs, and 65 rbi) from the 2 hole. One facet of his game that he vows to improve is his stealing of bases. The dude is fast as a fat kid gobbling down cookies, and is capable of swiping 30-40 bases with the proper technique (thank you Davy Lopes). In conclusion, Shane Victorino is an every day outfielder, and will be a pleasure to watch for a full season in Philly."

Vic's stats:
2007- .281, 12 hr, 78 r, 46 rbi, 37 sb
2008- .293, 14 hr, 102 r, 58 rbi, 36 sb

A Big "FU" to Sports Illustrated -- we win the WS, and what's on the cover? "NFL Midseason Report". Thanks for nothing to the sorry douchebags at SI.

lol, nice random pat on your own back carson.

Here's my estimated rundown for 2009 payroll:

Buyouts/Dead salary: Gordon $1M, Taguchi $.2M, Eaton $8.5M

Already signed: Lidge $13M, Myers $12M, Romero $4M, Feliz $5M, Rollins $7.5M, Utley $11M, Jenkins $6M, Stairs $1M

Estimate of Arbitration/Tenders: Kendrick $.6M, Blanton $4M, Condrey $.7M, Durbin $2.5M, Hamels $7M, Madsen $4M, Happ $.4M, Riuz $.7M, Dobbs $.7M, Howard $15M, Vic $4M, Werth $4M

That's 20 roster spots that add up to $112M.
It assumes Burrell and Moyer and Bruntlett not re-signed.

To fill the remaining roster spots with nothing earth shattering takes it up to $120M.

Of course, trades etc could happen, the arb numbers could be different, etc.

Congrats to Shane and Jimmy for snagging 2008 gold gloves! Hopefully a tradition for years to come.

VIC WINS THE GOLDEN GLOVE

Jimmy was a no-brainer but VIC!!!!

Proves that letting Rowand go was the best thing they ever did.

Re Bonehead's payroll rundown. That $8.5M with Eaton's name attached to it really sticks out like a sore thumb. Will the ghost of Eaton never leave?

Eaton must go. There must be someone who will bite if the Phils pick up 80%. Thats alot but 7 M is better than 8.5M. Think what we could get for the pen with 1.5M.

Wright wins the 3B Gold Glove...WOW, and here we thought the Abreu pick was a joke.

Seriously, Wright wasn't even the best 3B in his own division let alone the NL. Glaus was just slightly better to say the least.

Very solid picks all around the diamond this year. No one can say Jimmy didnt earn it this year, he was hands down the best, unlike lastyear with Tulo. Glad to see Shane's star keep rising in national media, he seems to love attention.

I would argue with David Wright at 3B - he had a bad year by his own standards, let alone the league. But ah well, I'll leave the Muts alone, as a world champ Philly fan, I dont have time to dwell on the peasently teams.

Looking at Bonehead's projected salaries, I find that the $6 Million attributed to Jenkins is nearly as offensive as Eaton's $8.5 Million. I know he contributed to our WS game 5 victory, but $6 Million to sit mostly on the pines!!!

@ thephailful - yeah always fun to read about Carson putting himself over and pimping his blog. Just sayin.

I like that, thephaithful..."as a world champ Philly fan." That has a nice ring to it. I will try to use that when I talk Phillies to others here in the deep south.

Victorino and Rollins win gold gloves! Congrats to both. They deserved it. It would have been nice to see Chase win one, but you can't argue with Phillips.

Vic's good, but the gold gloves are meaningless and he wasn't the best. 3 CF's won gold gloves this year! That doesn't make sense! The award lost its meaning when Palmiero won it a few years back, having only played like 25 games in the field. Its an award for lazy writers who don't bother to actually research who was the best, they either vote for who they know, someone with a name, or some guy who made a great play on sportscenter that they remembered. The only thing the gold glove is good for is increasing salaries in arbitration.

"Its an award for lazy writers who don't bother to actually research who was the best, they either vote for who they know, someone with a name, or some guy who made a great play on sportscenter that they remembered."

Actually, the coaches and managers from each league vote, not the writers. You can't vote for your own players (which led to the Ozzie Guillen fiasco last year-I think that was last year). But that doesn't change your point that some of them are lazy and vote for "names."

No offense to the guy, but I can't imagine that a 42 year old Maddux is truly the best defensive pitcher in the NL at this point.

@theotherkevin -- SI now does regional covers. not sure where you are living, but this region will get a phillies cover.

@Bob -- agreed another middle infielder (greather than bruntlett) that can spell utley would be very helpful. I was talking about Tad Iguchi (not my choice, we just still have his rights) in that position not So Taguchi. Iguchi while he didn't make the post season roster is still ours according to zolecki's article today. it will be interesting to see if we keep him... whether dobbs gets the starters call. whether donald makes the team etc.

Of course if Dobbs were to be the heir apparent to LF. we still need a RHB, because Dobbs has faced what like 3 LHP in his life. kidding, but he has so few at bats and very little success in that small sample size that we have no idea what his success would be if he saw more lefties. Werth's splits were not great, but they did IMPROVE over time as he saw more. But he also had WAY more at bats against RHP than Dobbs will ever see coming from the Leftside.

Personally, I'd like to see an every day player, rather than a rotation of bench players. And I would gather that either Jenkins or Stairs will not be in 2009. that's assuming Burrell is gone.

Jeltz: touche. I stand corrected. I guess I was too lazy to do the research.

Bonehead-Thanks for the numbers. Basically confirms that except for a few Value Village pickups, the Phils aren't going to be very active at all on the FA market.

Are there posters here who are advocating a LF of Jenkins/Golson/etc.?

I've heard many mention they believe the Phils might go that route... but is anyone really advocating it?

(A man with a long beard and red hat walks in a plaster-y way into a random gym near Philadelphia.)

Man With Beard - Hey, you! Are you a personal trainer?

Personal Trainer - Yeah. Whaddya want?

MWB - I need a trainer.

PT - Why?

MWB - Well, I'm a personal trainer...{long pause while he waits for trainer to get up off the floor and stop laughing). Done?

PT - (wiping tear from eye) Yeah.

MWB - I'm a professional athlete and I need to put on sixty pounds of hard-ass muscle in the off-season.

PT - Okay. (Then as an after-thought) Why?

MWB - 'Cause the Phils just signed Peterson T. Orr, and I don't wanna be an Iron Pig.

Rube was just interviewed on DNL.
He sure made it sound like that he is not at all concerned about locking up long term any of the arb eligible players...content with just letting the arb process take its course.
I guess if any player does get locked up, it will be the player's agents that approach the team, and it will have to be very fiscally beneficial to the Phils.

Cot's has a few different numbers (but nothing minor). Lidge is $11.5MM, for instance.

Eyre, as well, is listed with his Cubs contract ($2.7MM for 2009) for the next few years. Is this contract still valid? Or is he a FA?

Sorry to add to the gold glove conversation a little late, but I'm so happy for Jimmy and Shane.

Jimmy's 2nd consecutive gold glove proves that his worth to this team goes far beyond solely his offensive statistics. He is the irreplaceable catalyst of the offense, and a stellar defender at the most important defensive position in the field.

As far as Shane is concerned, I knew he was a fantastic defender but I assumed he only would receive recognition within the Philadelphia area. I couldn't be happier for him to be recognized nationally for his speed, glove, and unbelievable arm.

CJ - I'd like to see that platoon.

You know...on the Mets.

MG - I agree. We should not expect any pricey FA's or trades this off-season.

Moyer is probably the highest price tag transaction that has any probability of happening.

Andy - Eyre is a free agent....and (rightly or wrongly) I was adding Lidge's $1.5M signing bonus to his 2009 base salary.

Bonehead: Don't expect Amaro to negotiate in the press or even accurately reflect what the FO strategy is. Of course they'll look at the possibility of long-term contracts if they make sense financially and lock up some potential free agent years (i.e. Chase Utley).

Bonehead: Lidge signed this year. I'm sure that $1.5M is off the books for 2009.

White Sox are looking to trade Nick Swisher. If he returned to 2006/2007 levels he might make for an ok switch hitting replacement for Burrell and with Swisher's affordable salary perhaps a good pitcher could be signed.

I think upgrading over Bruntlett would be nice too. Mark Loretta would be a great fit and give them a real RH bat off the bench, so you never see Taguchi or Bruntlett up in a big spot.

The only way we'll see Taguchi up in a big spot in 2009 is batting against Lidge, Romero or Madson.

I actually wonder if the Phils are planning to have Good Gooch practice at 3B and SS in the Spring so he can replace the Gnome. (Yet another reason for the resident garden ornament to hit the gym.)

@Thomas:
The only issue with a guy like Loretta is that he doesn't really play any other positions than 2B (at least to my knowledge).
His faults aside, Bruntlett does give something to the team in that he can play any and all of the 7 positions besides Pitcher and Catcher.

Sure there are better hitters out there than the Gnome, but as far as flexibility is concerned, you can't really beat him. I'm with you though - if there was any way to acquire a player who could field either corner outfield position and all infield positions like Bruntlett with just a little more pop in his bat, I would pick him up in a heartbeat. I just can't see them replacing the Gnome right now though.

In re: the continuing "Burrell Replacement Conundrum"

No one has mentioned Adam Dunn. Despite the low BA and high K rate, he duplicates Burrell fairly well - fewer hits but more dingers. About the same BBs. I wonder what kind of pitches he'd see hitting third sandwiched between Utley and Howard. It might be interesting to try out.

Plus, with Werth, Dunn and Howard we could set a ML record (albeit one of questionable worth).

Andy: I don't know how serious you were with Adam Dunn, but he is a lefty. I'd prefer a righty sandwiched between Utley and Howard.
Also, he's probably going to earn much more money than Pat. I'd be shocked if he doesn't get a contract for approximately 16 mil per season, solely based on his OBP and power numbers.

thephaithful: Myers is not a power righty. His out pitch is his curve. He throws 88-92. Hamels is the only pitcher in the rotation who can hit mid-90s and his out pitch is the change.

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