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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

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Does Swindle get a partial WS Share?

Three or four of the names on that list have been cited by posters in the past couple years as promising talent.

Lots and lots of filler. Nice note by Weitzel that for a team that has had a ton of draft picks the last 3 years, there is still a ton of organizational filler from the Indy Leagues in this system even below the AA.

We can get Abe Nunez, Eude Brito and Gookie Dawkins back.

Whoo-hoo!

In case you missed it in the last thread:

Clout, what minors was Atkins playing in? Colorado Springs minors? That's supposedly a hitter-friendly park too.

"Otherwise players traded away from Coors would never have much success."

And what players traded away from Coors have had much success? Kaz Matsui actually just had a decent year, I suppose - Vinny Castilla had some mediocre seasons with the Braves - Coors famously inflated Neifi Perez's numbers. Preston Wilson came there, had 141 RBI's, hasn't been heard from since he left. Jeff Cirillo hit .320 over the two seasons he was there, hit .249 and .205 the two seasons after he left. Jay Payton - fantastic for the year and a half he was in Colorado, league-average or worse since. Juan Pierre, I suppose, didn't get worse once he left. Of course he was never good to begin with. And Aaron Miles didn't get worse either. That's it, going back 8 years.

What happened to the red?

To honor the minor league free agents, I've returned to Beerleaguer Classic.

Somehow losing that red takes me back to when we were just another team struggling to make the playoffs.

Speaking of Beerleaguer Classic, is there any way to get back to having all the comments on one page? I preferred life before the "Next" button came into it.

I no longer feel like a champion.

Excuse me, a world f*****g champion.

"We can get Abe Nunez, Eude Brito and Gookie Dawkins back."

AND Cliff Politte !

none of those examples are particularly good, Tray. in several you're conflating age-related decline, especially w/r/t power hitters, with a Coors effect. it's like pointing to a journeyman slugger like Geronimo Berroa and concluding that Oakland is a bandbox.

Castilla: 32 when he left Colorado
Wilson: RBIs spiked in Colorado but otherwise his numbers weren't that dissimilar to his numbers in Florida
Payton: 31 when he left Colorado (to Petco, no less)
Cirillo: 32 when he left Colorado, and had hit .320+ three times in four years in Milwaukee before going to Coors

Jeltzie: I wish. Thanks, Typepad.

World f*****g Typepad.

Tray: In 6 minor league seasons, Atkins had an OPS of .873. Not all of those seasons were in Colorado. Feliz, in 8 seasons, compiled an OPS of .730.

I think you are over-exaggerating the impact of Coors on Atkins. He is a better hitter than Feliz and the difference isn't small.

Spring Training just won't be the same without Brennan King.

ae, it's true that they're all older than Atkins, but it's also the case that no one has left Coors and continued to be what they were except for some utterly pop-less singles hitters. No Coors slugger left Coors a slugger.

two points Tray:

> correlation is not causation.

> no Coors slugger has left Coors period in recent years. I think 2004 was the last time a 20+ HR hitter left Colorado: Jeromy Burnitz (.915 OPS to .757 OPS, but he was 36!) and Vinny Castilla (.867 OPS to .722 OPS, but at age 37!).

from 2005-2008, the only Rockies to hit 20+ HR are Helton, Holliday, Atkins & Hawpe, who all still play in Colorado. there simply are no test cases from the post-humidor Coors Field to conclude that it plays the same as it did during the Blake Street Bomber years.

Tray: "No Coors slugger left Coors a slugger."

Really? Don't tell Andre Galarraga. And he was 37. How many sluggers have left Coors in their prime to test your theory?

to expand on the point about 2004 a little, the three-year park factors for Coors have plummeted since they topped 120 in 2001. take a look at them here. I think it's pretty safe to conclude that the "Coors effect", whatever it is, is not the same as it was when it was turning Dante Bichette into an MVP candidate.

Well, there was the outlier's outlier:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/galaran01.shtml

Moreover, I don't see why the fair comparison isn't between Feliz's road numbers and Atkins's road numbers, since they're both NL players, NL West players for all but one season of their careers, playing in the same parks. Of course, it is slightly unfair because Feliz has played 56 games in Coors and, unsurprisingly, hit quite well there - .939 OPS - while Atkins has played 32 in San Francisco and hit very poorly. But even so, Feliz has a career .713 road OPS, Atkins, a .752 road OPS. Not a huge difference, though if you take AT&T and Coors out of the equation, it would get a little bigger.

Not to change the subject, but....

Manager of the Year awards just came out. AL to Maddon of the Rays. NL to Pinella of the Cubs. Cholly got second.

Voting took place before the post-season. If it had taken place after the series, I don't think Pinella would've won. IMHO (and limited baseball knowledge in comparison with many of you), Pinella's managerial choices after the Cubs clinched, but before the NLDS, are what caused the Cubs to be rusty against the Dodgers.

You got me with Andres Galarraga, clout. But it should be noted that when he was a Rockie, Galarraga was a good road hitter - nowhere near the cavernous splits Atkins's got. So his success outside of Colorado shouldn't have been such a surprise. If Atkins were to keep his numbers up outside of Coors, it would be.

Tray, it's not a fair comparison because you're throwing out half of a hitter's games because you don't like the park they play in. a fair comparison is to look at park-neutral stats.

What gets me is that Both Jenkins and Feliz were supposed to hit more than their 20 hrs a year average in Philly. As you see they both did not make it.
I guess Jenkins not playing that much would hurt his, and Feliz out for awhile, but doubt very much they would of gotten their 20 and definitely not more like all said.
Just shows sometimes different parks do not help or maybe hurt. CPB is supposed to be a homerun hitting park.

If Atkins was acquired to play LF, would you rather him or Dye*

*Assuming PtB isn't brought back, of course.

looking at Galarraga's 3 seasons before leaving Colorado and Atkins' 3 seasons before (hypothetically) leaving Colorado...

Galarraga 1995: .927 OPS home, .759 OPS away
Galarraga 1996: 1.157 OPS home, .748 OPS away
Galarraga 1997: 1.017 OPS home, .931 OPS away

Atkins 2006: .999 OPS home, .933 OPS away
Atkins 2007: .936 OPS home, .773 OPS away
Atkins 2008: .904 OPS home, .661 OPS away

it's only Atkins' 2008 season where he was really egregiously bad away from Coors. his splits in his other two seasons are fairly non-"cavernous" by the Galarraga comparison.

Ae, if a hitter's had an 8-year career, couldn't we still tell a lot about him if we picked four random seasons to look at? I mean, these are pretty large sample sizes; Atkins has played 326 career road games, and Feliz has played 500. It's also worth noting that Feliz is actually a better hitter over his career in Coors than Atkins is. He's got a .612 slugging percentage there.

Atkins would be fine if you can get him for not much. Atikins represents a slight overall upgrade, better offense but worse defense. Of course, if you're looking for a marginal upgrade at 3rd, you might as well just use Jason Donald instead of giving up anything for Atkins.

But I'm confused as to where Atkins plays. Feliz is under contract and has very limited trade value. Is Atkins the everyday 3rd baseman now? Does he become the RH platoon in left? If that's the case, count me against it. I'd rather have a real LF, like Bradley or Dye. An Atkins/Jenkins platoon does not impress me all that much.

my concern about Atkins is more that he has declined across the board since 2006, not his home/away splits. additionally there's the fact that Colorado's been using him increasingly at first base (61 times in 2008), although Ian Stewart's arrival is part of that.

Ae, if a hitter's had an 8-year career, couldn't we still tell a lot about him if we picked four random seasons to look at?

well, I would probably argue that, but in any case my point is that we can tell a lot more if we look at 8 years in context than if we look at 4 years out of context.

Atkins is 28 - Its hard to see him going downhill at the prime of his career.

"his splits in his other two seasons are fairly non-"cavernous" by the Galarraga comparison."

Keep in mind that Gallaraga played in non-humidor Coors, so bigger home/road splits would be expected.

Isn't 4:00 the deadline for signing your own players prior to them being available to other teams?

the problem with home/road splits is that you're trying to add context to statistics, but in many cases you're actually removing it.

look at Feliz's splits in 2006 and 2007:
.737 home OPS and .682 away OPS
.737 home OPS and .677 away OPS
looks like a pretty clear trend, right? it's not, because I switched his home & away splits for 2007. so Feliz--while playing in the same home park and presumably mostly the same away parks--went from +55 at home in 2006 to -60 at home in 2007 while maintaining almost exactly the same overall OPS (.709 in 2006 and .708 in 2007).

Yeah, well Feliz didn't benefit much from playing in Pac Bell. But there is a Coors effect.

you have presented no evidence for that aside from things that happened ten years ago.

Can someone explain to me how a road split is more appropriate for comparing two hitters than park neutral stats? I mean, isn't that why park neutral stats were created... to eliminate park effects?

Wait, you're telling me that there isn't all kinds of eidence that Coors remains an extremely hitter-friendly park? See below for park factor. Coors is third in runs, third in home runs, first in hits, 8th in doubles, 6th in triples. That's this year. Last year, third in runs, second in hits, fifth in home runs, third in doubles. CBP in 08 - 15th in runs, 11th in home runs, 8th in hits, 20th in doubles, 23rd in triples.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Whoa whoa whoa...we need SOME recognition on the front page of the Phils magical year. There should be at least a World Series trophy in the logo! We need a Beerleaguer trophy case! I need something J!!!!!!!

Ken Rosenthal says Randy Wolf could garner a 3-year deal worth more than $30M. I guess that blows the Ben Sheets budget out of the water.

Tray, that's clearly not what I'm saying. as I posted above:

to expand on the point about 2004 a little, the three-year park factors for Coors have plummeted since they topped 120 in 2001. take a look at them here. I think it's pretty safe to conclude that the "Coors effect", whatever it is, is not the same as it was when it was turning Dante Bichette into an MVP candidate.

"Ken Rosenthal says Randy Wolf could garner a 3-year deal worth more than $30M. I guess that blows the Ben Sheets budget out of the water."

In a world where Adam Eaton can get 3/24M ...

All I said was that there is a Coors effect, not, you know, a Coors Miracle-Gro Effect. There's still an effect, it's just not massive.

I'll take the under on Wolf.

just to make sure they REALLY canned Steve Smith, they also released him from Lehigh :)

OK edmundo and Tray don't like Galarraga because it undermines their argument. How about Ellis Burks? He was also old when he left: And he went to SF, a pitcher's park, and had a BETTER year.

I await the excuses about why this doesn't count.

Oh, it counts. I just don't think Atkins is Ellis Burks.

There are actually some recognizable names on that minor league FA list, including: Ben Broussard and Morgan Ensberg, whom some Beerleaguers wanted to pick up as recently as last off-season; John Halama, who I always figured Gillick would eventually sign for the Phillies; Jason Lane and Jay Gibbons, who are both just 3 seasons removed from hitting 26 homeruns; Tony Graffanino, who is still better than Eric Bruntlett; Wil Cordero, who is now 37 though it seems like just yesterday he was being touted as a future star; Brett Boone -- yes, seriously, THAT Brett Boone; and, for those who really love nostalgia signings, Eric Milton, who somehow managed to win 14 games for us in 2004 before turning into one of the great free agent busts of all time with Cincinnati.

And, specially for clout, C.J. Henry is also available.

"OK edmundo and Tray don't like Galarraga because it undermines their argument."

I've been trying to give you the benefit of the doubt but apparently you just like lashing out.

I pointed to Gallaraga because he was a counterpoint to the prevailing argument that numbers dropped off the cliff when a player left Coors. Gallaraga is the most extreme exception, so yes, he is an outlier to the common pattern but he counts nonetheless. I never said he didn't count.

Good grief, Charlie Brown.

Tray: "I just don't think Atkins is Ellis Burks."

Right. You think he's Pedro Feliz. LOL!

LOL indeed! It sure would be funny if I thought that. Are you in the political strategist business by any chance? You know, the guy who tells the candidate to say, no matter what his position actually is, that his opponent is going to raise your taxes? That's what it seems like, sometimes... anyway, I think Atkins is more of a poor man's Troy Glaus than a Pedro Feliz.

BAP - Nice summyar on some names from the Phils' recent past.

Tray: Now you have me confused. First you say Atkins is just a small upgrade over Feliz and now you compare him to Troy Glaus?

And I'm still waiting for you to explain why a ballpark neutral stat like OPS+ is not as good a measurement as road stats.

Poor man's Troy Glaus. Emphasis on poor man. Substantially less power, less on-base, but a similar sort of player.

Re: the Atkins splits, not sure if anyone has looked at his stats by ballpark. Obviously there are some diverse sample sizes given out of division match-ups. But if you look at the non-Coors, reportedly "hitter friendly" parks (which CBP typically gets lumped in with) his stats look like an upgrade to me for the LF spot. See link and scroll down:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7145/splits;_ylt=AqEGDVuniwufLhmzm2koAAqFCLcF?year=career&type=Batting

give me a park neutral stat that we can work with and we can compare. As I explained before, home stats typically give you greater success despite the type of park because of comfort level, lack of travel, time spent in a park during a home stand (3 days versus 10 day stretches), etc.

OPS+ is NOT a park neutral stat. It compares your ops to an adjusted league OBP and SLG. it doesn't adjust your actual OBP or SLG to make the comparison. So... your extremely HIGH OBP and SLG in coors is skews your OPS+. It doesn't say:

Assuming everyone played in the exact same conditions, in the same stadium, what would your OPS be? If there is a stat that does that, let me know. But there isn't one.

And if you look at the tOPS+ for Atkins, which compares his home and away stats against teammates who would be a better comparison because they play in the same parks, his HOME OPS+ is 121. His Road OPS+ is 81. Which means he's 20 points better than his average teammate at home, but 20 points WORSE than his average teammate.

I'll use clout's favorite argument: "Does Atkins become a different hitter on the road then at home?" Yes. YES HE DOES. He's a completely different hitter. He has a 169 POINT difference between his home and away OPS. That's a gigantic split.

Let's look at a different player, that we know is likely to have cavernous splits. We know that Ryan Howard has a huge Right-Left splits (in fact his splits are more cavernous). And he plays in a park that has a high home run factor. Wouldn't Ryan Howard be a candidate to have huge splits home versus away? Knowing the flaws in his swing and his approach to the game? Nope. Home and Away virtually the same.

Hmmm....


mike cunningham: OPS+ IS adjusted for park factor.

here's a link for the explanation:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/bat_glossary.shtml

mike cunningham: I think you're confused. There are different kinds of OPS+. There is one that gives you a number relative to the league and another that gives you a number relative to your team.

If you read the link clout provided, you'll see that OPS+ at B-R.com most certainly normalizes for park factor.

Is someone really suggesting that Garret Atkins' road stats from last year are indicative of how he'd perform with a full season in CBP and in the Phillies lineup?

Is there not ample evidence that Garret Atkins is a significantly better offensive player than Pedro Feliz?

Garret Atkins' career OPS+ is 24 points higher than Pedro Feliz's career OPS+. How is this not relevant!?!?!? What bizarro world have I entered!?!?!?

Atkins is a clearly a much better offensive player than Feliz.

One thing that everybody is completely missing that is incredibly imporant too - Everybody is assuming that Feliz can continue to duplicate his offensive numbers again next year. This is an incredibly dubious assumption given his age and the fact
that his offensive numbers went off a cliff in the 2nd half this year.

Feliz had horrendous offensive numbers in the 2nd half including his anemic power numbers (2 HRs in 106 ABs). If Pedro can't hit for power next year, he is nearly useless offensively. A .250 hack-machine who never walks. Yeah.

Saw where if Cinci traded for Atkins that they would probably use him in left field. Maybe thats the plan for lots that are looking to get him.

Didn't we also hear on and on about how we should fear getting Holliday b/c he isn't the same player outside of Coors? Now, those concerns can be ignored in Atkins' case?

I doubt very much we would be giving up anything compared to what Holliday would of cost, and also how much money it would eventually save. Atkins would be half as much as Burrell and to my way of thinking if he played left would be just as adequate and a better batting average. Probably would not hit 30 hrs but I bet his RBI's would match Burrells.

CJ: "Garret Atkins' career OPS+ is 24 points higher than Pedro Feliz's career OPS+. How is this not relevant!?!?!? What bizarro world have I entered!?!?!?"

You've entered the bizarro world of Beerleaguer. Tray and Mike Cunningham are your hosts.

BedBeard: And who did you hear those Holiday concerns from?

Clout,
Please go back and read on Holliday. Perhaps it wasn't the consensus, but it was very vocal.

I hope you're not pretending your head is in the sand, regarding those conversations (not saying YOU were concerned about home/away/Holliday)

if you don't like OPS+, I posted about other park-adjusted offensive stats in the last thread right here.

basically, whether you use OPS+ or some other park-adjusted stat, you see Atkins as essentially league-average in 2008 and slightly above league-average in 2007. (strictly considering offense, not defense.) just on offense, I think Atkins is a minimum 1-win improvement over Feliz for next year, possibly more if Atkins rebounds even a little or Feliz hits as bad as he did in the second half all year.

now of course that doesn't consider defense. honestly I'm not crazy about any of the popular defensive metrics, and I haven't seen enough of Atkins to have my own opinion on his defense. but he's definitely not held in any kind of high esteem around the league.

Comparing Atkins to Feliz is not only ridiculous (since Atkins is obviously much better), but it completely misses the point. Trading for Atkins means letting Burrell walk & accepting a crappy platoon in one outfield spot. Therefore, the comparisons we should be making are: (1) Burrell v. Atkins; and (2) Feliz (and sometimes Dobbs) v. a platoon of Jenkins and a mediocre right-hander.

Comparing Burrell to Atkins is a little difficult, not only becasue Coors Field skews players' numbers but also because Atkins' stats have been all over the place in the last 3 years. In 2006, he drew 79 walks, had a .409 OBP, and hit 29 homeruns & 48 doubles; last year, he drew just 40 walks, had an OBP below league average, and hit just 21 homeruns and 32 doubles. Assuming he performs somewhere between these 2 extremes, I would say a swap of Burrell for Atkins is a downgrade. It might not be a huge downgrade, since Atkins' skill-set (higher average, fewer strikeouts) might be a better fit for our lineup than Burrell's low average and high strikeout totals. But it's still a downgrade.

A Jenkins platoon v. Feliz (and sometimes Dobbs) would, at worst, be a break-even proposition. More likely, it would be an upgrade. Feliz had an OPS+ of 81 last year -- which, contrary to what his supporters believe, is exactly the same as his 2007 OPS & almost precisely in line with the 2 seasons before that. An 81 OPS+ is what you're going to get from him again, give or take 3 points. Of course, Jenkins' OPS+ was even worse -- 79. But that number was a huge drop-off from his recent prior years. So, unlike Feliz, at least one has some reasonable basis for hoping that Jenkins will be considerably better next year. With the addition of a right-handed platoon-mate who can hit left-handed pitching, I would expect the platoon to out-perform Feliz at the plate. Would the increased offense offset the likely drop-off from Burrell to Atkins? That's the $64,000 question. The other $64,000 question is what it would take to get Atkins. The Rockies are generally outrageous in their demands and this is not a trade for which I'd be willing to give up a huge amount.

One other factor that belongs in the analyis somewhere is salary. Burrell is probably going to make between $12 to $15M next year. I believe Atkins is arbitration eligible for the next 2 years, so figure he'll make $6 or $7M next season. If the Phillies' owners were willing to put that difference into signing an ace caliber pitcher, it would make the deal a lot more attractive to me.

Last thought on this issue. If this trade were to go down, it's not like the Phillies would be irrevocably committed to a Jenkins platoon next year. They probably WOULD be irrevocably committed to a platoon but, if Jenkins doesn't perform, they have a pretty safe fall-back option in Dobbs. I guess the idea of trading for Atkins is growing on me. But I definitely wouldn't give up any of our crown jewel minor leaguers to get him.

I dunno J, there's a certain beauty in the fact that it was past Beerleaguer All-Stars who stood up in key moments during the post season and we're discussing potentially the next generation with the World Series appreciation logos. Besides, the fact we're World F'ing Champions will content us when Bohn hits a game winning dinger against us for the Nationals in August.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7CI39brXvw&e

I love Hot Stove Beerleaguer as much as anybody, but let's all watch that and shed one more tear of joy for the 2008 Phillies. And then let's talk about Garrett Atkins some more.

On this list and the list of folks who were released right after the season ended, I'd take a flier on the following for a minimal contract and spring training invite:

Claudio Vargas
Morgan Ensberg
Ruben Gotay
Daniel Haigwood

Former Phillie Daniel Haigwood?!

BAP - Nice analysis. Although I questionable whether Feliz is able even give you a 81 OPS+ because of his bad back/lack of power in the 2nd half. I am also leary that Jenkins can have much of a rebound. He might not be as bad as last year but I could easy see him having another largely subpar year with an average of .250 and reduced power. Unless Jenkins can hit .270-.280 and have decent power (say 18-20 HRs in 400-450 ABs), he doesn't bring enough to the table offensively.

Just a quick note on that Sickels column and a few points:

- Couple of names from the 2004 draft including Golson, Happ, and Marson. If Happ can be a serviceable back-end rotation guy for a couple of years and either Marson/Golson develops into a solid starter for the Phils it has to be considered a success.

- Only a few names from the 2005 draft on this list - Slayden (who I would be surprised if he ever gets a crack at the majors) and Worley. Gillick largely raided what talent was in system from this draft in a couple of trades the past few years but two of these prospects (Maloney for Lohse; Constanzo in the Lidge trade) did result in trades that really helped the Phils.

- 2006 draft is looking really suspect at this point too. Cardenas was traded by Gillick and the success of this draft turns on what Drabek ultimately does. Everybody is excited about Donald right now but the real key is Drabek and if he can develop into at least an average MLB starter the Phils can control for at least 3-4 years.

- 2007 and 2008 draft names obviously litter the list but pretty hard to really come away with kind of definite conclusions. If the Phils are going to be a competitive team though in 2010 and 2011, some of the many picks that the Phils had in these drafts better come through as starters and meaningful contributors.

johnny: Haigwood caught my eye too, only because of prior Phillies connection. However, he very much has the look of a guy who's going to have a Brian Mazzone type career: consistently good in the minors; not enough stuff for the majors.

As for the other guys, I think Ensberg has run out of chances after another terrible season at both the major & minor league level. Vargas would be worth signing. He's the quintessential journeyman but he's serviceable enough to stash in the back of your bullpen or, better yet, at Triple A as insurance in case a starter gets injured.

MG: Agree with you about Jenkins. He didn't have the look of a guy who's likely to bounce back next year. But I base that solely on my totally subjective impressions. The objective numbers say that last year was an outlier and that, given 400 ABs in 2009, he's likely to post considerably better numbers than last year. There's no question that his numbers are trending downward but even a relatively modest uptick next year would make him a big improvement on Feliz at the plate. And if it doesn't work out, we can switch to Dobbs, who won't hit many homeruns but will hit for high batting average against right-handers.

BAP - Sadly Jenkins reminds me of Helms. I actually though the Helms signing was a decent signing as we was going to be an offensive upgrade over Nunez. Turns out he marginally was (only because Nunez was horribly inept at the plate for 2 seasons with the Phils) but his bat speed was diminished. Helms was just overmatched by most pitchers last year.

Sadly I think Jenkins is going to fall into the category of "overmatched" too. Just way too many ABs last year where I just saw a guy who had to cheat to turn on a fastball and failed pretty badly on an offspeed pitch when he guessed wrong. Jenkins has always been a very "streaky" player during his career. Too bad except for about a 3-week stretch from the last 2 weeks in May through the 1st week in June, Jenkins just never put together anykind of decent hitting streak. Even that stretch wasn't exactly dominating (OPS slightly north of .800).

I think about the best you could hope from Jenkins would be 350/400 ABs would be .265/.320/.430. Basically an OPS around .750-.760 as best case scenario. That still would be slightly below average but the Phils could live with that if they had a platoon bat that was as productive/slightly more productive.

The new front office broom sweeps clean. Out with the dead wood.

Good Morning.

Nice to see the Bickersons have moved back in.

Have a good day.

Jenkins had OPS+ of 101 in his last two years in MIL and with an every decreasing percentage of PAs vs. LHP. He was already browning in the toaster before last year. As MG stated above, his swing does look slow. I am not expecting him to last the year in PHL and not expecting much improvement over last year.
He seems like a good guy and really seemed to enjoy the whole WS thing so I'm hoping for a fluke late career year that sometimes happens. But you'd have to offer me long odds for me to take Jenkins to beat 100 OPS+.
I wonder what the Vegas line would be on Jenkins vs. Feliz, OPS+ in 2009.

So this year we had fun watching Mike Cervenak, Andy Tracy, Les Walrond and RJ Swindle appear in the majors. The kid inside us want one of them to somehow blossom under the spotlight and turn into a useful player, a la Chris Coste.

Next year, a new batch to ponder over. I wonder who they will be?

Another suggested upgrade for the Phillies: Replace Sarge Matthews.

Over/Under line for the sum of Jenkins' and Feliz' 2009 OPS+ : 168

Bone, not a bad line. I'll take the under in a small wager.

Replacing Sarge is more important to my mental health than solving the LF problem. The only worse scenario that I can think of than having Sarge back is hearing, "Your Phillies' starting pitcher, Adam Eaton".

Moyer's on record as wanting a multi-year deal

Would something like 2 years, $15 million do it? I wouldn't want to go any higher than that...even that's scary. Just how good will he be at age 47?

Odd that there are a million mentions of Jenkins as if he's the only choice in a LF platoon if they were to acquire Atkins.

There is Dobbs (OPS+ 111, which I realize isn't as good as Feliz's 81 on Beerleaguer, but still...)

And there is Stairs (OPS+ 99) who hit 21 HRs in '07 and 13 in '08 as a part-time player.

If they could add a decent one-way righty power hitter they'd have 3 potential lefty platoon-mates. That's why obsessing about Jenkins is a waste of time.

MG: Good analysis on the prospect list. My views on Golson are well known so I won't repeat them, but I think Happ can be a decent back of rotation starter for more than a few years. As I noted before, I like his ceiling way better than Greg Smith's.

Re: the 2005 draft, agree with you there, although you're being too hard on Gillick. Just how good do you think Maloney & Costanzo are? They were Grade C prospects at best. Maloney is a finesse lefty totally dependent on pinpoint command. Those guys are always longshots and he was never as good as fellow finesse lefty, Happ. At best, Maloney might make it as the Reds 5th starter. But he'll give up HRs in bunches.

Costanzo has decent power and value as a lefty-hitting thirdbaseman, but his glove is barely average and he'll never hit more than .250 in The Show. He strikes out a ridiculous amount. He's a fringe player.

I think I like Slayden more than you do. He can't field, but as I noted a few threads ago, they've yet to find a level where he can't hit. I'd love to see him tear it up at LV and then find a spot on the Phils bench by mid-season. I think that's doable.

"That's why obsessing about Jenkins is a waste of time."

I'll waste my time how I please, thank you.

Re Wolf-
No way he gets 3/30 (at least I hope not)

Rotoworld speculates that sheets will get 2 years 28 million. Or that he will take a one year deal to get his value back up.

How sweet would that be? sheets- 1 year 14 million?

Edmundo: It seems you recognize it for what it is. Good job!

CBS Sports reports the Braves are close to acquiring Peavy.

What is the better scenario for the Phils: The Cubs getting Peavy, making an already good team better in the NL - or the Braves getting Peavy, making an average NL East team get better?

I think i'd rather see him on the Cubs and avoid him as much as possible, even though that would make them even a bigger speed bump in the road to the WS. But to be honest, even though philly won the division two years in a row now, I am definitely not taking that for granted. just getting to the playoffs is my biggest concern.

phaith-

agreed. I do not want Peavy in the NL east. he can go to the cursed cubbies.

Zambrano-Harden-Peavy-Dempster(although, doubt he returns)-Lilly. Would be very hard to beat, curse or no curse. No thanks.

It's a bloodbath out there! It looks like last year's NL Champion, the hated Colorado Rox, are dismantling their team. Ditto for that year's almost playoff team, the hated San (Diego) itary Pads. This drop from the top is scary for a long time diehard Phillies fan like myself. We're on top right now and we stick a Rookie in the GM slot. How long will it be before we return to the murky bottom of the division, lurking with the gNats and Fish in the swampy muck?

Return the Championship logo to the top of the BL pages!

Piniella says the Cubs aren't going after Peavy.

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EST. 2005

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