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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Comments

Ruben Jr. has until Friday to sign Pat the Bat and Jamie Moyer before other bids start to come in.
I hope he does- I think prices will go up after that and our needs will still remain.
I don't think Burrell is easily, and cost effectively replaced. And Moyer just fits well here.
Both have expressed their desire to stay.

Neither are particularly attractive options... but they are better than the other realistic players.

Andy made a good point last thread. If Jamie Moyer is so intent on staying here, there's little chance he'd turn down arbitration if it's offered. The only reason he'd do so is if he believed there was a 2-year deal out there somewhere.

Garrett Atkins is a Coors Field artifact. He hit .233 with a .661 OPS on the road last year. In 2007, he hit .254 with a .773 OPS on the road. In 2005, .238/.649. In his 4-year career as a starter, he has had exactly one good season away from Coors Field. The team that trades for Garrett Atkins is going to be sorely disappointed. I hope it's not us.

BAP: Maybe he just misses Chase Utley.

I'm not enamored with Atkins either. I know there are a lot of Feliz haters out there, but he has a solid glove and actually had some clutch hits last year. I believe if he gets enough ABs he'll have a better year in 2009 at least powerwise, as 2008 was down from the past. If Burrell is gone, that means less platooning at 3rd since Dobbs will surely play in LF on occasion. Plus, Feliz is not all that tradeable unless the Phils foot half the bill.

No thanks on Atkins. He's certainly talented but I also agree that he's a product of Coors Field mostly. He'd clearly be an upgrade over Feliz, but he'd also be a defensive dropoff, and cost 7 million more as well as prospects... and we'd still have to pay Feliz 5 million.
Just re-sign Burrell. I think 2 years 25 mil would be a wise offer for us to make and The Bat to accept, because if he sits around he may end up in a Kyle Lohse situation later in the offseason.

Andy: Very good point last thread on Moyer. If we offer arbitration he will just accept, and probably be awarded 7-8 mil. Getting two draft picks for him won't happen.

Garrett Atkins isn't worth a solid prospect like Donald or even Happ. Unless he comes cheap, he's not a good option. His hitting isn't much of an upgrade over the Feliz/Dobbs platoon and his fielding is worse.

I would consider a Madson for Atkins swap.

I am scared to have Jenkins/ Stairs in right even with a decent(insert high average,run producing player)in left field.
The combination of declining numbers and age give me the willys.

The Doctor: Feliz missed 25 games in August. Except for that injury, he was probably good for a couple more home runs to put him closer to his average of about 20 HR a year. Don't expect any more from him next year. He's significantly limited offensively. And if Burrell leaves, I don't anticipate Dobbs getting much time in LF. That's what we have Jenkins and/or Stairs for.

About the prospect list. Ranking D'Arnauld over Marson was a surprise for me, I thought Marson would do better than a C+. I can't really believe that Golson even made the list.

Sickles point about the Phillies drafting philosophy is absolutely true. Picking "toolsy" players is not a bad thing, just don't pick them ALL THE TIME.

Thats a terrible list. Giving Drew Naylor and Lou Marson the same grade is just ridiculous.

Vonderful - Golson's appearance probably hs more to do with the status of the farm system than Sickels' belief that Golson has value.

Only on Beerleaguer is Feliz considered a better hitter than Atkins.

The "alternative viewpoints" here make Dutch Daulton's view of the world seem boringly normal.

Reviewing Sickels list is kind of depressing. Despite the fact that the Phils have had 2 first round picks in each draft since 2006, there are still only a handful of players in this system with true upside potential.

Andy: good point. That is the best reflection of where the minor league system is right now. Greg Golson is on of the top 20 prospects, ugh.

@ clout from previous:
Andy typed this, and he is correct: In re: Myers
The major reason for "discussion" on Myers is a misunderstanding of the term "command." Command does not mean throwing strikes; it means knowing where the pitch is going to end up. It means throwing strikes on the corners for instance, instead of out over the plate. It means throwing a high fastball that is unhittably high, or a low fastball that just nicks the bottom of the strike zone.

What made Myers better in the second half was that he had better command of his fastball. He knew, for the most part, where it would end up. Since his fastball was located better, batters needed to pay attention to it. And then the curve kills them."

In addition, you are the only person on Beerleaguer that forgets the numerous key hits Feliz had. Feliz did have the game-winning RBI in Game 5 of the World Series...

@clout -- 2008 Road Splits:

.233 .278 .383 .661
.238 .300 .395 .695

Pick which hitter is better.

clout: I'm not sure anyone has suggested Feliz is better offensively. Some have suggested that Atkins wouldn't be much of an upgrade... but they've at least allowed that he'd be an upgrade.

I think Atkins would be a SIGNIFICANT upgrade over Feliz offensively. I'm just not sure what Colorado would ask for him... and whether we'd be stuck with Feliz when it's all said and done.

clout: Nobody said Feliz was a "better" hitter. Every post above says that Atkins would be a better hitter. How much better is the question.

mike cunningham:

OPS+ last three years:
136, 112, 97
or
79, 81, 81

Pick which hitter is better.

Oh... and which do you think is more indicative of a player's offensive ability, road splits or OPS+?

The fact of the matter is this: clout is not one of us. He even says "Only on Beerleaguer" before he types something, and then types something that most people here disagree with. HE THINKS HE IS BETTER THAN BEERLEAGUER! Go somewhere and become more humble, or go find some other blog where cockiness is accepted.

mike cunningham:

Also... Garret Atkins' road games happened to fall significantly more often in pitcher parks. Using that stat to compare Feliz to Atkins is just plain stupid.

mike cunningham:
The question you ask, given the information you supply, is impossible to answer. Last year's numbers are meaningless for this year without any further context. Give them some context (like a few other comparative years, or career numbers) and you might be able to say which is which.

PhilliesPhan:
I am guessing that clout will also agree with what I wrote about command. What made Myers better is that he had better command of his fastball, and he used his curveball more and more effectively.

Oh, and on Feliz. Just be sure to ask yourself: would a better hitting 3B have come up with just as many (or more) key hits for the Phils? Given Feliz' averages, and those of just about every 3B out there, I think probably.

Key Feliz plays of 2008:
1. Game-winning single in clinching game of World Series.
2. Double-play in Game 1 of World Series - the ball that Upton absolutely whacked and could have been a single. Instead, he turned a HUGE DP.
3. Feliz forced extra innings against the Dodgers in the regular season, and then added an extra-inning game-winning HR.

Look, I know alot of people don't like Feliz, and he's not my favorite either. But if we have to deal with him another year or two, it's not killer as long as we have a LF.

One last point on Myers:

- The reason he had an inconsistent velocity fastball on his fastball was due to largely due to mechanics. When he got straightened out in th 2nd half, his fastball was in the 90-92 range again pretty consistently.

Before he went down to the minors and was all screwed up mechanically, his delivery point was messed up and he was driving right off the mound. Basically produced a fastball was generally 86-88 (with control issues).

Myers' does need to use his curve but if his mechanics are screwed up on his fastball, it won't matter. An 86-87 MPH fastball you can't throw for a strike consistency will cause issues for any pitcher regardless of how good the other pitches they throw are.

Andy: Yeah you are right on about Myers. About the 3B - obviously I would rather have Atkins than Feliz. And he could have come up with a few extra hits. But I think that I would rather re-sign Burrell or acquire another everyday right-handed left fielder before I traded for Atkins. I wouldn't want Atkins if it meant using a platoon in left.

MG - Right on about Myers too. Clout doesn't seem to understand this, so I'm going to post it again.

MG said: "Myers' does need to use his curve but if his mechanics are screwed up on his fastball, it won't matter. An 86-87 MPH fastball you can't throw for a strike consistency will cause issues for any pitcher regardless of how good the other pitches they throw are."

MLB Trade Rumors has the Twins in on Atkins also. Michael Cuddyer was mentioned as a player going to Colorado.

Feliz's defense is what counts. He's decent offensive player. His defense is why they got him (plus there wasn't anybody left). I bet they're not sorry about getting him. Of course, they're going to inquire about Atkins, just like they did Holliday. But I don't think it'll happen.

They will re-sign Moyer, move Werth to LF and bring in A RH bat to platoon with Jenkins. Someone they can afford (Austin Kearns???). Or maybe Francour as the starter. But no Manny, Ordonez, or Dye. Nice players all but older and they all make big money. Just my opinion.

When they say Phils are interested in Atkins, its very possible they are talking about moving him to left field. Maybe Utley knows something about him that we don't know.
Atkins is young (28) and should be coming into his prime. I myself would love to have him, playing left field.

DPatrone: I wouldn't brush past this. It's not just a simple inquiry. The Phils are obviously not happy with what they got out of Pedro Feliz. Why else would they be kicking the tires on Atkins?

Let's not fool ourselves. Pedro Feliz is a substandard third baseman. He's only out there for his glove which is counter-intuitive since third base is the 2nd least important defensive position on the field.

PhilliesPhan, I agree with wishing to avoid more platooning. Werth continued to click after getting the everyday nod.

As for Atkins - I'm hesitant to take a defensive downgrade at 3B, especially if we resign Moyer. When Hamels isn't getting strike outs, he's gonna need a sure glove at third, and Moyer's craft relies on capable fielding.

Does anyone have some defensive stats to quantify the Atkins vs. Feliz debate?

I have said it a couple of times but is I haven't any say anything about Feliz's health next year. He had a bad back this year (disc problems) that put him on the DL for over 3 weeks. When he returned, it largely robbed him of his power and ability to drive the ball.

Now maybe Feliz is healthy next year and doesn't have any back problems but it generally is pretty unusual that a guy in his mid-30s with back issues suddenly has no issues/problems.

Anybody is except getting Atkins bat for the 3rd is crazy. Now the price depends on what the Rockies want in return (prospects or MLB talent) and having to take a total stiff like Torrealba (still wonder nearly 2 years later how this bum killed the Phils in the playoff series) in return and his $4M contract for next year.

"third base is the 2nd least important defensive position on the field."

I would like to hear why you think this. The conventional wisdom of the last 25 years is that the defensive spectrum goes something like this:
SS-2B-C .... 3B-CF ... RF-LF-1B with a fair dropoff between the groupings.

PhilliesPhan: I am glad that you and Andy know what "command" means.

Now please explain the logic in your mind that causes this: "What really made the difference for him was how he used his pitches."
to equal this: "What made Myers better in the second half was that he had better command of his fastball."

I await enlightenment.

Edmundo: I'd love to see conventional wisdom anywhere that considers third base on par with CF. Third base is involved in fewer plays on average than just about any other position. I don't mind seeing it lumped in with LF and 1B... and perhaps RF. But there's a reason big bat-no glove players find themselves in those four positions.

I like the Atkins idea even less than Holliday. Assuming Cholly uses Dobbs/Feliz as he was using them at the end of the year, then I don't think upgrading third is a priority. Dobbs gets most of the righties and feliz gets the lefties and late defensive assignments.

Of course, if Atkins is going to play left and we can get him on the cheap, then great. He will do fine in CBP.

I hope we sign a few free agents. I asked yesterday is 3/30 mill would land sheets. I was shot down. How much would it take on him? I would assume no team would go 4 years. 12 million a year for 3 years? Anyone have any thoughts?

king0fprussia: I've looked over the game logs regarding Moyer and Hamels starts and it's largely a myth that significantly more chances come at third base with either of them on the mound.

Atkins is a better hitter than Feliz, but that career .752 OPS on the road isn't that much better than Feliz's career numbers overall. I would not argue that the improvement on Feliz would make up for the dropoff from PtB to Stairs/Jenkins. Of course, ours is a somewhat hitting-friendly park, but it's nothing like Coors.

Let's say we acquire Atkins. What do we do with Feliz/Dobbs/Jenkins/Stairs? I include the left fielders because it has been mentioned that Dobbs could play left, but then we'd have no use/space for Stairs (who is by far the most tradeable of the non-Dobbs's). Plus, we'd have to acquire a righty for LF anyway, albeit a cheap one. Basically, you'd have a lot of money on your bench in Jenkins and Feliz.

clout: Enlightment commence! Before reading, please remove your nerdy glasses and your lab coat, and then we can get down to business.

Myers used his fastball to cut the corners when he came back from the minor leagues. Instead of leaving them right down the middle to get crushed, he painted the corners like Moyer tries to do with his pitches. That is HOW he used his fastball. And this HOW written above equals better command of his fastball. If he did not do this, his curveball would not have been effective. If you need proof of that, please visit first half Myers.

mike cunningham:
vs. RHP
.636 OPS
.709 OPS

vs. LHP
.845 OPS
1.014 OPS

Pick which hitter is better

CY: It will be interesting to see how the starting pitcher free agent market shakes out. There's some speculation that Sheets will have trouble getting more than 2 years guaranteed because of his injury history. I think once the market settles, he could be looking at a three year deal. I think $30M might be a bit low, however.

Clout:

You are right about the article. It's position is that using the curveball more was the greater cause of Myer's turnaround.

PhilsPhan, myself and others feel that locating the fastball was the bigger factor.

The combination of all three (attitude, location and pitch selection) were all obviously major factors though.

Andy: This is proof that you can never assume that clout will agree with anyone, because he never will. He wouldn't get any kicks with agreement.

CJ: do you like Sheets at 3 years 36-40 million?

Maybe I am the only one.

CY: Is the money you wrote above guarenteed? If it is, I am a bit weary. If it is incentive-laden, mainly based on starts made, I'm with ya.

2 years 26 mill with a vesting option for 13 mill more if he meets innings pitched goals?

God that is a pipe dream. Fun to hope though.

SS-2B-C-CF-RF-3B- LF-1B-P would make sense to me to defensive rankings of positions.


We have had some good hitting Phillies 3B in our long history- so I think we expect a good bat from that position- but good fielding is a nice plus.

The issue isn't whether Atkins is better than Feliz. The issue is whether Atkins plus a Jenkins platoon is better than Burrell and a Feliz/Dobbs platoon and, if so, is the improvement worth the cost of what we'd have to pay Atkins and what we'd have to give up to get him. I don't even have to get to the second part of that question because there is no way in the world that Atkins, plus a Jenkins platoon, is even close to the equal of Burrell plus a Feliz/Dobbs platoon. In fact, I'm not so sure that Garrett Atkins, away from Coors Field, is even the equal of a Feliz/Dobbs platoon.

CY: That's a good question. PhillisPhan suggests incentive laden... but that's not going to happen. Good starting pitching is the #1 commodity in baseball and he'll get a guaranteed contract. I think 3 years, $40 million is the range.

I haven't seen "Helms/Dobbs" written in awhile. Maybe we can compare Atkins to that for kicks, as well.

Atkins sucks and I hope we don't trade for him.

CF is far more important than 3B defensively. The CF is the captain of the OF and having a great defensive CF props up both corner OFs.

BAP - clout is going to have something to say about that one.

CJ - I tend to agree. Maybe I overvalue Sheets, but I think it would be a risk worth taking. But, like I said, a pipe dream.

CJ: You are probably right, but contracts like those of Adam Eaton, Mike Hampton, and Carlos Silva just scare the living $hit out of me. lol

bap: So you discount Atkins' OPS+ over the last few years? That does equalize park factors, after all.

Its not Feliz vs Atkins, its Feliz/Dobbs vs Atkins. Per at bat, Dobbs was better than Atkins last year but almost any measure: RC, OPS, OBP, AVG. Feliz was worse but Pedro Feliz had a much better 2008 K/BB ratio than Garrett Atkins.(or Greg Dobbs)

If Burrell returns, I don't think 3B is much of an issue. With his better glove, Feliz isn't a worse 7th hitter than Atkins is a 5th hitter.

Its unlikely that another team actually wants Pedro Feliz, and he's relatively cheap, so we're better off keeping our prospects.

Lets get real here- Garrett Atkins wouldn't replace Pedro Feliz, he'd replace Pat Burrell. If they trade for Atkins, Pat won't be back.

For CJ's benefit, I recalculated Atkins' lifetime road batting average after subtracting out all his ABs and hits at Petco Field, Dodger Stadium, and AT&T Park. His lifetime road average actually went DOWN after making those subtractions.

I agree with BAP about the issue of Atkins + a platoon in left. If it's Atkins + Burrell/Dye/An everyday LF, I'm all in for Atkins. Otherwise, I'm kind of neutral.

DPatrone: Please explain your definition of the words "decent offensive player."

Pedro Feliz ranked 20th in OPS among the 23 major league thirdbasemen who had 450 plate appearnces last season. He ranked next to last among NL thirdbasemen, beating only Jose Castillo.

Patrone - ATL will not let Francoeur go. He's only 24 and, after a brief sojourn in the minors, killed the ball his last month. He's there until arbitration at least. More likely until he becomes an expensive FA or gets traded for LOTS of good stuff (the package will NOT include "some dudes.")

Wow. Castillo fell below Feliz? He sucks.

PhilliesPhan: I thought this was understood, although understandbly, not by you. When I write about seeing bizarre viewpoints on Beerleaguer I am talking about posters who hold such viewpoints, not every single poster. The vast majority of posters here are quite insightful, which is why I enjoy reading. Some, of course, are clueless.

Atlanta won't trade Francoeur within the division, but I think they are done over rating him. I think they would trade him.

Edmundo: How many big league coaches and managers do you think would agree with you that 3B is more important defensively than CF?

Frankly, that bizarre suggestion is the first I've ever heard of it.

I think the Myers fastball/curveball "discussion" should be taken to a private room, please.

Moyer is not arbitration eligible to the best of my knowledge. He hasn't been probably for 15 years if I had to guess.

Players are only eligible for arbitration from years 3-7, then they become free agents. I might be missing something here.... someone correct me if I am wrong.

Edmundo / Clout: I think I would put catcher in front of 2b as far as defensive importance as well.

I think the Myers fastball/curveball "discussion" should be taken to a private room, please.

Yeah. We should spend our time on much more worthwhile discussions like:

How much "pop" does Pedro Feliz really have?

Sean: I think any impending free agent can be offered arb.

Arb is just mandatory for those years 3-7 unless a deal is reached to avoid.

Sean - thanks for the clarification. So we could get those draft picks anyway? Does Hewitt have him some younger twin brothers?

Bill James' defensive spectrum goes like this:

C
SS
2B
CF
3B
RF
LF
1B

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defensive_spectrum

Speaking of Hewitt, was he the main pusher of the "draft athletes" plan?

I think clout's interest in Atkins is just the flipside of his passionate hate of Feliz. It's pretty obvious that he wouldn't be big enough of an improvement to make up for Burrell's loss.

I'm not saying that Feliz is a better hitter than Atkins. I'm saying they are the SAME guy away from Coors. And since Feliz puts more balls in play (less strikeouts), isn't that more valuable here in Philly where strikeouts occur nearly 1 out of 5 at bats?

I'll let bap continue to carry the torch here. But you can't give me OPS+, while it does adjust for park factors, it does not account for the cliff dive in his road splits and it still includes his HIGH production from Coors. And as bap proved that his numbers decline outside the pitchers parks.

In comparison to Matt Holliday. Matt Holliday is a superstar in Coors. Away form Coors, Holliday is still an All Star.

Garrett Atkins is an All Star at Coors. He's Pedro Feliz away form Coors.

Now if you are bringing in Atkins to be the Right handed LF? That's a different story. But he would not be an upgrade over Feliz. At least not significant enough where the drop in defense would be mitigated.

It's not about the importance of the defensive position. Which no matter how much clout might beat that drum. But good pitching and defense get you to the playoffs and in a short series, where the single moment is highlighted more. MG likes to talk about luck and bounces going the Phillies way. With good pitching and defense you increase your "luck" in that regard.

People around the game understand that. When you are too focused on the back of a baseball card. You miss that.

Sean: Moyer IS arbitration eligible if we offer him arbitration and he accepts. And if we don't offer him arbitration, we don't get any compensatory draft picks when he signs elsewhere.

Here's why I don't buy the logic that Moyer would accept arbitration. Based on what I've read, the sticking point with Moyer is not about salary; it's that he wants 2 years & the Phillies are only offering 1. So, if Moyer wanted to take a one-year deal with the Phillies, he would just take it. He wouldn't have to jump through the hoop of going on the FA market & then agreeing to arbitration. If he elects to hit the open market, it's because he has concluded that he stands a good chance of getting a 2-year deal on the open market -- and I think he's probably right.

"I'm not saying that Feliz is a better hitter than Atkins. I'm saying they are the SAME guy away from Coors."

Not quite. But it's way closer than I would've thought.

"Speaking of HEWITT, was he the main pusher of the "draft athletes" plan?"

Meant Arbuckle.

Todd Zolecki reports:

Charlie Manuel, who led the Phillies to their first World Series championship since 1980, finished second in the National League Manager of the Year voting behind Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella.

It is important to note that these votes come before the postseason.

I'm just wondering why the Phils have interest in Atkins? Do you think theres a 3 way trade involved? Theres got to be a good reason. Again like I said prior - maybe they are going to make Atkins the left fielder. I guess it wouldn't be the first time a infielder went to the outfield. Burrell comes to mind since he played 3rd in college.

Unless its something like Golson and Kendrick for Atkins and they take Feliz I would pass. Re-sign Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer, put Happ as the 5th starter, and get another RHP for the bullpen and this team its set for '09. Do it Amaro!

I know this site is supposed to be all about baseball, but sometimes we all get off track and berate each other over stupid things. But I think we all would like to know the answer to this question:

Clout, what do you do for a living?

You're such an angry guy, we all feel it through your fingertips as you pound on the keyboard. I think the answer still keeps you anonymous enough, but believe me when I say we all would love to know.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I had 3B and CF backward. That's why I wrote a qualifier to the effect that it was something like what I wrote.

Defensive spectrum links:
http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/bbd-bj1.html

From an offensive perspective:
http://www.rcjhawk.us/baseball/spectrum/

For grins, here's an excerpt from a BP book of defense that says data suggests that players who play CF and 3B play a better CF (suggesting CF is easier)
http://books.google.com/books?id=uxdvwQdXbboC&pg=PA100&lpg=PA100&dq=defensive+spectrum&source=web&ots=JAt5_c4H7b&sig=erLEox4plYbmekPfpCmAKWe2-S8&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=1&ct=result#PPA100,M1

Google on Defensive Spectrum and you can find some single season analyses testing the hypothesis.

You also get "The Defense Spectrum Organization (DSO) is the center of excellence for electromagnetic spectrum analysis and the development of integrated spectrum plans..."
What that has to do with baseball, I don't know. :)

For grins again, I looked at NL 2008 defensive stats and CF made an average of 2.61 plays per game. 3B made 2.60.

To increase my sample size, I looked at AL 2008. 2.71 plays for CF, 2.74 for 3B.


Atkins career in CBP
.289 .413 .474 .887

Feliz career in CBP
.265 .300 .414 .715

Atkins may be too sucky to trade for, but he is not "Pedro Feliz away form Coors."

To Atkins, I say, "meh."

Sign PtB or try out the gameboard. But let's not waste talent on mediocrity.

Actually I agree with Clout 99% of the time. Well except for the fact he did not think Victorino would be able to play the whole season and he also was not a Dobbs fan. Otherwise Clout has been on the money.

CJ~ Not brushing past the Adkins thing at all. I just feel that the Phils probably don't think they have a need at 3rd. Maybe they like Atkins for LF. I don't know.

Clout~

Prior to last year, didn't Feliz average 20 HR's and close to 70 RBI year for 4 years? I'd call that decent. he certainly would have put up better numbers if he hadn't missed 25 games. Although you don't like him, he was the option the Phils had when they signed him.

Andy~ Not saying ATL would let Francouer go, but he was in the doghouse for a long time last year. Maybe it wouldn't hurt to ask about him that's all.

Sarge - Didn't you know? clout is a Buddhist monk marriage counselor.

Andy, that's just 10 games. Not a good sample size. If we're going to look at 10 games, I might as well note that this year he went just 1 for 8 in our park. Also, guess which starters he faced in the seasons he did hit well at CBP? Lieber, Madson, Floyd, Lidle, Eaton, Lohse, Kendrick, and J.D. Durbin. And Durbin's game turned into a bullpen game. Kane Davis, Jose Mesa, and Clay Condrey all took a turn.

Tray: You didn't read my first post on the subject. It's not Atkins replacing Burrell. It's Atkins replacing Feliz and Value Village righty/Stairs or Jenkins replacing Burrell. The huge increase in offense at 3B would more than offset the dropoff in LF. If you have difficulty understanding this, assume Baldelli is in the platoon with Stairs. Baldelli can only play 3 times a week and would face LHP.

And please don't talk about a Feliz/Dobbs platoon. There is no such thing. Charlie did it for about 2 weeks when Feliz came off the DL. If Feliz is healthy he is the everyday thirdbaseman as long as Charlies is manager no matter how suck his bat is.

mike cunningham: Fascinating. So OPS+ is not a meaningful stat. If you want to see how good a hitter is, look at his road splits.

Alternative viewpoint, indeed.

No, I read your first post. There is no huge increase at 3B. Atkins is mediocre outside of Coors. Burrell is not. The dropoff from Burrell to Jenkins would be huge; the improvement from Feliz to Atkins would be much smaller than you think. Atkins has had one season, just one, where he wasn't a .700s OPS player or worse on the road. Just another Coors artefact. (And yeah, that's artefact, not artifact.

I'm not really interested in Atkins, mostly because his offensive production has been consistently dropping since he entered the league and his defense is, by all accounts, awful. but I don't think discounting his home ABs and only looking at his road ABs is an appropriate way to gauge his true performance.

for instance, here's a post by Dan Syzmborski at Baseball Think Factory (discussing Holliday) where he points out that "when developing ZiPS some years back...I found practically no value to knowing the actual home/road splits for the player - in all, the generic park factors were more than 8 times as an important as the actual splits." or here's a post on Fangraphs also arguing that park-adjusted stats are far more illustrative than road-only splits.

again, I'm not pro-Atkins, but I think there are better ways to illustrate that than by road splits. there's the linear weighted batting runs and batting wins on BRef, which show Atkins as a 1-win player in 2007 and a -.4-win player in 2008 (considering only offense and not his poor defense). or there's WPA/LI from Fangraphs, another linear weighted park-adjusted measure of offensive wins, which also has Atkins as about +1 in 2007 and 0 in 2008 on offense.

Sarge: I'm your father.

FRANCOUER????


no no no no no no.

my preferred strategy for third is to try and get by with Feliz & Dobbs next year and have Donald start there in 2010. unfortunately as clout points out, a healthy Feliz will start every game as Manuel doesn't seem to have any interest in what would be a far more productive platoon.

Some numbers on the Dobbs/Feliz "platoon"
I took only the months that Feliz did not spend time on the DL for speed purposes(partly because I'd better do some work for the next 3 hours)

Dobbs starts at 3B:
Apr 6
May 3
Jun 6
Sep 11 (6 between the 1st and 10th)

That's more of "Keep Dobbs sharp" pattern than a platoon.

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