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Tuesday, November 04, 2008

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Awesome.

I like the look of "defending champs"

From the last thread, a trade for Magglio Ordonez has the fingerprints of Danny Tartabull II all over it. And if the names involved are Donald and Marson, no thanks. $18 million + two prospects? Really. The Tigers would have a Reuben Amaro Fleece give away day...

When the "defending champs" call, AAAA players listen.

Didn't see if anyone posted this, but Jimmy crushed everyone in the Fielding Bible awards. Congrats Jimmy, your D was rock solid all year.

I think Ordonez is THE guy to target for the outfield, mainly because he puts the ball in play and our lineup is desperate for that, but Donald AND Marson is way too much to give up for him. Marson alone is pushing it and I'm pretty high on Donald. If it was a straight trade that's one thing, but this would be a salary dump of a still productive player. If there was a way to pawn off Jenkins in the deal then it would be worth giving up more, perhaps Donald and a pitcher like Happ. Detroit is also looking for bullpen help. Perhaps they would do Ordonez for Madson, though I don't think that would be a good trade for the phillies.
Perhaps Jaramillo could be part of an Ordonez trade. They need a catcher. He could still be a decent catcher, at least defensively. Clearly, he wouldn't be the centerpiece, but Detroit wants "multiple pieces" for Ordonez. Given Ordonez's contract, they ain't gettin multiple primo pieces for him, unless they include some kind of salary relief or take on a player like Jenkins. I'd offer them Donald, Happ, Jaramillo, and Jenkins for Ordonez. They fill 3 primary needs, unload a big contract and can hope that Jenkins isn't completely done.

Any word on Junichi Tazawa? As I understand he's a 22 year old with a good fastball (91-94 and can touch 97), a good curve, and a good shutto that the phillies are interested in. MLBTR has the red sox as favorites (as always with Japanese players), and I wonder what kind of deal he will get. His situation seems almost entirely unprecedented, though perhaps Alexei Ramirez is a somewhat similar, although he was older, played in a more competitive league, and wasn't a pitcher. What kind of offer should the phillies make? Will he get 2-3 year offers or longer because he's so young?

Truth Injection: I did hear that Hamels was "upset". It's called posturing, or simply a young guy not fully understanding the business side of things.
As for your question, Cole Hamels will completely write off re-signing in Philadelphia when he hits free agency and some other team offers him a better contract that the Phillies do. From now until that point, he will sign a contract as soon as the Phillies offer one that he feels is in his best financial interest to sign. He won't let any perceived slights prevent that.
And I'm not totally against locking him up long term, but it has to make sense. We have him under our control for 4 more years. Contracts much longer than that for pitchers are always risky. So, like I said, we'd have to be getting somewhat of a discount if we're going to go 6 or 7 years. Those rushing to "break the bank" or "give him whatever he wants" are being foolish (which is of course understandable after the euphoria of a WS victory).

Now that Gillick is no longer the GM what is the term that will replace "Value Village."

I don't think that Orr qualifies as a "Value Village" pickup though. More like a bad flea market item. Not exactly what I had in mind when I was hoping the Phils would upgrade their middle utility INF position.

I'll say it again. The market for Pat will be bigger than some of you figure.

His agent will want 4 years, so will Pat. My guess is a lot of teams go with the 3 year deal roughly around 17 million a year. The winner of the Pat sweepstakes will be the team that gives him the 4th year, or at the very least an option for the 4th.

Also I agree with something from the last thread. I think the Phillies need to lock up Madson as well. If they do that they've locked up a third of their pitching staff for at least the next 3 years and they have some good players locked into contract in the field as well which gives them a great core group to keep working with.

Its funny. I already can hear that some posters are talking about how it would be awesome if the Phils targeted Lowe, Dempster, or even Manny. As the Hot Stove heats up, the exaggerated hopes will only raise and be gradually diminished.

This year in particular I don't see the Phils adding an impact player either via trade or FA. Just don't have the payroll unless they increase it too around $120-$125M next year and I would be stunned if that happened. I could see $105-$110M though.

I bet that Burrell:

1. Doesn't get a 4-yr deal from an NL team.
2. Doesn't get above $15M/year on his contract.
3. Stays in the NL because he has expressed his disinterest in being a DH several times in his career.

I am ok with Orr at LV but I don't want him anywhere near the big leagure club. He shouldn't take a spot away from Marson, Donald, or even Golson.

If we can trade Golson, Jaramillo, and one or two other mid level prospects for Ordonez with the Tigers eating some of his salary I wouldn't mind it. The more salary we eat the less prospects the Tigers would get. That said I would like to see Burrell re-signed.

Burbinder - if we traded for Ordonez why would we resing Burrell?

Two alternatives to "Value Village":

Ruben's Rummage, or Ruben's Rubbish!

MG - If one estimates the arb salary figure for the 10 arb eligible players (assuming all 10 are offered arb), the Phils 2009 payroll is already $110M. And that's without Pat and Moyer, and without all 25 roster spots accounted for. They will need to go to miniumally $115M just to field a team with no FA acquisitions.

Ordonez is definitely very interesting. I would be reluctant to give up anything more than a combination of Jarmillo, Donald and Happ for him though. Even that looks like a lot. It looks like Ordonez will end up costing more than Burrell so if Pat is leaving cause the Phils don't want to pay him, it is doubtful they'll pay Ordonez.

Any thoughts on Casey Blake? I was reading about how he can play RF too. Joe Torre seemed to love him and if the Indians want him back that speaks volumes of what kind of player he is.

I think Hamels proved this year that we can't be concerned about him getting injured. Last winter it was a valid concern. We have a rare, elite pitcher on our hands. The kind of pitcher you need if you are going to win championships and compete with the Mets, who will always break the bank for Santana types. He's 24 years old and is still a few years away from his prime. You can't be scared about signing a guy like Hamels when you get this chance. I say go 6 years so you buy out 2 years of free agency.

I'm not going into this offseason with any kind of lofty expectations. They are going to sell a boatload of tickets for next year and merch too. They don't have to make any big moves to spark ticket sales. They are going to have to give big raises to a lot of key parts so money will be tight. I think we are going to look at the same core next year and at best can hope for a significant bench upgrade or two with more help coming from the emergence of Marson or a young pitcher. Hopefully they can do a little better than a Geoff Jenkins type to replace Burrell, but platoon city here we come.

Hey here's another thought.

The Red Sox are supposed to be in the Teixeira sweepstakes with the plan of moving Youkalis to 3B if they sign him. This of course leaves Lowell out in the cold. I wonder what it would take to get Lowell at that point? I'm guessing not much but taking on his salary and he did sign a hometown deal with the Sox last winter.

Returning to Ordonez, his contract has vesting options at $18 million (or $3 million buyouts) for 2010 and 2011 (his years 36 and 37 seasons). When coupled with his injury history, its very risky and we could be in Thome territory again, particularly if Michael Taylor, etc., are ready by `10 or `11.

The one thing I am waiting for to drop (and my uncle too who has been a season ticket holder for almost 30 years now) is how hard season tickets get hit with a price increase. My bet is that Monty and Co. say screw the terrible numbers in the general economy and take his historic opportunity to whack most season ticket holders with a 15-20% increase.

If the Phils are going to have a payroll of only about 110 million(after the upgrades in contracts to players like Madson Hamels and Howard), it doesn't look like they can resign Burrell, especially if he wants more than 2 years. I would guess that a player that has hardly been mentioned may become part of the mix. It's early yet. It hasn't even been a week since they won the

WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!!!!!!

I'd be in favor of signing Lowe to a three year deal but, again, I doubt the Phils will be able to afford him. I'm sure most of us here would like to see the Phillies open up their wallets to assure contention for the next few years but we've seen in the past the Phillies reluctance to do so. Maybe sipping champagne is addictive.

I sure hope so, but I won't hold my breath.

The one good thing about living a thousand miles away from Philly is that ticket prices don't affect me. Sorry.

This fascination with Ordonez seems illogical. Why trade 2 prospects and pay $18 million for a guy who's older and whose career OPS+ is only 10 points higher than Burrel? Seems like Burrel will come cheaper, is younger, and already fits in here.

No offense to Burrell, but Magglio has more consistent contribution because he's a batting average guy. We need less .250ish hitters with tons of k's and more high average guys that make better contact. Werth and Howard strike out a ton, between the two of them next season we're looking at 375+ k's, so Ordonez would be an upgrade over Burrell in that regard because he continually gets the base hits. I'm all for OPS, but when the hell did the ability to get a hit become so under valued?

Bye-bye Les Walrond, as you've been claimed by the Blue Jays.

Anyone watching CNN? They're doing some Star Wars stuff with this hologram interviews. Wow.

Actually a little disappointed to see Walrond go. Thought he showed some stuff against lefty hitters in limited opportunities.

I'm not saying trade the farm for Magglio, but I'd definitely give the Tigers Jaramillo, Kendrick, and Golson or some other package of prospects equivalent. He's expensive, but he's good. Look at his career splits and he's always hit righties and lefties for high average, consistently produced at both home and away, and carried a solid batting average and OPS in every month of the season. He's the model of consistency other than the injury risk factor, but that's a risk I'd be willing to take.

The best part about Magglio is he hits for high average and he doesn't strike out. That's what the phillies have sorely been missing. How many RISP didn't score bc Utley and Howard struck out or Burrell and Vic popped out? This team consistently struggled to string hits together. Magglio is a guy that can do that. Utley, Howard, and Werth are big time strike out guys. We need a solid hitter who can put the ball in play.

Also, I know Jenkins contract would be hard to move, but does anyone think (based on baseball skills alone) that he is more valuable than Stairs? I'd much rather keep Stairs for next year, there's really no good reason to get rid of him as he only makes like one million or so. It'd be much better to pay half or Jenkins contract to swing high at balls in the dirt somewhere else. Thanks for the double Geoff, see you at the 10 year reunion!

Also, on the "injury risk", Magglio has played in 155, 157, and 146 games over the past 3 seasons while batting .298, .363, and .317. I'd gladly welcome him aboard and watch our offense become more consistent and better fit to back our pitchers.

JW - Agreed on Walrond. Yeah his control is nonexistant at times but his stuff was okay. Plus, the Phils don't have a single lefty at AA or AAA that will help out of the pen next spring and I doubt that Eyre is back since the Phils have generally gone in a different direction with veteran relievers since Wade left town.

If we were to get Ordonez, and Marson makes the team as at least a backup, our offense would improve tremendously, especially on a day when Dobbs starts. Imagine a Rollins, Werth, Utley, Howard, Ordonez, Vic, Dobbs, Marson lineup. Bye bye black hole, hello RBI's for Jimmy Rollins.

I haven't heard much in the way of rumors about him, but Jerry Hairston Jr. would be the perfect guy to sign for the bench, and would allow Donald more time to adjust to 3B at AAA. Hairston can play all the infield positions, plus all the outfield positions. He can run real well and put up a monster season (by his standards) last year, that really came out of nowhere. In days past he'd be a definite steroid candidate, but one must give the benefit of the doubt nowadays. Don't know what kind of deal he's looking for, or whether he's looking to start (he could supplant Feliz if he hits like last year, although I have no idea what kind of defensive 3B he plays) and he could be resigned by the reds. Still, he's certainly worth a look.

I saw the Pete Orr note on MLBTR and it listed the Phillies and several other teams as suitors. I'm always astounded when I read about someone like Pete Orr actually having suitors. What exactly goes on in a GM or scout's mind that causes him to actually target a guy who is one of the single worst players in the entire major leagues? I'm astonished that even one GM would be interested in this guy, let alone enough for him to have "suitors." If Pete Orr actually has multiple teams interested in his services, it should give hope to the ugliest woman in the world that, somewhere in the universe, there is actually a guy who thinks you're hot.

I can't believe people don't like Magglio Ordonez. He's one of the best hitters in baseball. An offer of KK, Jaramillo & Golson, however, would only send the Tigers' GM into fits of uncontrollable laughter. The package would have to include Marson. As a starting point for discussion, how about Marson, KK, Stairs, and Bastardo?

MG: I still think your underestimating the market on Burrell some

Burrell made 14 million this year and is only 32. Given his projections it looks like he has ~2 years of good numbers yet before he starts any kind of decline. You're also still looking at a guy who is going to average 30 home runs and 100 RBI's. That's a really good bat to put in a line-up.

I would tend to agree he doesn't get a 4 year deal from a NL team. I think an AL team would be more likely for that.

As far as the money- I think a big factor will be when Manny, Dunn, and Ibanez sign and where they slot in at. If Burrell goes first then I'd venture he sets the mark around 16-17 million. If he goes after Dunn then I'd venture he comes in a little south of 15. I'd definitely put him within the statistical range of 15 million.

To me though that doesn't cahnge the larger issue. To the Phillies and their wallets decisions aren't exclusive. They tie into each other heavily as either/or scenarios. If they can lock up Hamels or even Howard versus Burrell I think the money is better spent on the prior two than on Burrell. (And yes I know Howard would most likely command more than 15 a year.)

To me Hamels is a harder guy to replace than Burrell as far as what they are position wise. Burrell's bat is not easy to replace but it isn't impossible

Ordonez is a great batter for sure, but at that point why not just resign the younger Burrell for less money and no prospects?

I think the idea is to get younger and cheaper, even if it hurts in the batting department for a little while.

Its very important to note that the Magglio Ordonez thing is PURE speculation. There are no actual rumors connecting the two teams at the moment. The only rumor is that that Ordonez is on the block and that the Tigers are looking for help in the Bullpen, SS, and C.

pardon me for saying this but

"who?!?"

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