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Monday, November 10, 2008

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I think we gotta keep him. Good young pitching is just too valuable at this point. Even if he netted us Holiday for a year it wouldn't be worth it. We should see what Happ would get us.

Lets give him an honest shot at being the #5.
Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, ... Carrasco.

Would want to give up Happ either. A good left handed pitcher is a great asset. Happ has proved in his few starts he will be good.

naturally its wouldn't not would

Something smells in Reading...

Seriously, what's up with the Reading coaching staff?

The PawSox made a comment about how Carrasco was the best pitcher they'd seen all season in AAA and that was including vaunted guys like Phillip Hughes and several other top pitching prospects. The Phillies shouldn't trade a pitcher this close to the Majors.

Can anyone tell me roughly what kind of money Holliday would realistically command on the open market? A lot more than Burrell money?

They didn't have the right people in Reading. Philllies realized this and told P.J. Forbes and Filer they will not be back.

Can anyone tell me roughly what kind of money Holliday would realistically command on the open market? A lot more than Burrell money?

a LOT more than Burrell money.

Carlos Lee got 6/$100 and he was A) older than Holliday will be, B) awful defensively, and C) had never had a 130+ OPS+ season (although he did this past year).

My guess would be $18-20 per year for 6-7 years for Holliday if Boras has his way. Maybe more depending on what type of season he has in 09.

***They didn't have the right people in Reading. Philllies realized this and told P.J. Forbes and Filer they will not be back.***

GOOD! That only took like 3 years.

I am really excited about Carrasco. I think he could be winning playoff games for us 11 months from now. With Drabek coming back nicely from his TJ surgery the Phils should be able to get 2 or 3 rotation spots fairly cheap for the next few years. Which hopefully means being able to pay Cole long term (although they might wait until Myers contract is off the books).

agreed NEPP, they could have traded carrasco when he was purely 'potential' if they wanted to, but they decided to hold on and develop the kid - and it looks like it worked out, so why trade him now? It'd be a waste to hold on to the prospect and take the risk of him not developing, only to trade him once you dodge the risk. If you're going to trade pitching prospects, the earlier the better. And a lot of times, that raw 'potential' is worth more on the market than anything else

don't trade carrasco

forget holliday

Hamels
Myers
Blanton
Moyer
Happ
Carasco
Kendrick

That's some nice depth right there.

It'd be a waste to hold on to the prospect and take the risk of him not developing, only to trade him once you dodge the risk.

well, that's really not true. the risk that he doesn't become a competent major leaguer is still very much there; he wouldn't be the first pitching prospect who couldn't make the leap from AAA to the majors.

there's less risk now than was he was a 17 y.o. rookie leaguer, but he's not there yet.

It will be interesting to see just how much of a chance Carrasco and Happ and Eaton are handled this spring. Will they be given legitimate shots at a rotation spot?

BobbyD: you forgot Eaton!

I can't imagine any scenario (apart from a fiery team bus wreck not involving Eaton) that would include Adam Eaton getting a shot at this rotation. He'll be cut free before the season begins unless he cares to toil in the minors any longer.

If there are any tough choices on who to protect in Rule 5 they should just cut Eaton now and use his spot on the 40-man.

I also might put Andrew Carpenter up there with Kendrick on the depth list.

Missed the weekend chat, but MLB Trade Rumors had a couple of Phillies tidbits that are out of newspapers...

1) Amaro dismissed any possibility of Rollins being dealt. That's a good thing.

2) Amaro did not discuss Holliday with the Rockies GM at the GM meetings. If the talks would start with Victorino, they wouldn't go anywhere. That, too, is a good thing.

Doc wrote in the last thread about the Phils acquiring Manny and reuniting him with Cholly. I have not been a Manny fan until I saw him in the NLCS. The Dodgers lineup essentially was Manny and the eight stooges. The Phillies beat the Rays because their lineup was the nine stooges. The Rays had no Manny. My opinion is that Manny is an awesome hitter. Who would you rather see batting before or after Howard: Manny, Burrell, Magglio, the Bald Roxhead, Milton Bradley, or Jenkins? I vote for Manny. Sign him up, don't enter into any more big deals, and value village all the rest of the lineup.

With Happ, Kendrick, and Carrasco battling for the only open spot in the rotation, there's no way in hell Eaton is on this team.

I'm with you Lake Fred. That lineup would be scary and he's just as dangerous with 2 strikes. The sideshow means nothing to me.

Here's to hoping Grand Pappy Moyer re-ups with the Phils and the top 4 of the rotation goes- Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton and then I'd be content with Happ, Carrasco, Eaton and Kendrick battling for the 5th spot with the idea that Kendrick and Eaton would have to show massive improvement before getting the ball at the MLB level.

cool thing about winning the title is you don't have to go for the gusto anymore. I'm more concerned about maintaining competetiveness for the long term. If Carrassco pans out that gets us a young rotation for the next decade. We're now in a position to say let's see what the farm system can do.

The possibility of Carrasco being major league ready by opening day 2009 opens some potential doors for obtaining a left fielder. It may still be a stretch and a gamble, but I'd rather take my chances with Happ/Carrasco/Kendrick as my #4 & #5 and try to make a splash with whatever money/resources I have left in landing an upper tier left fielder who hits for average.

Going to be an interesting spring training rotation wise. You figure at least one spot is wide-open in the rotation and if Moyer isn't back there are going to be 2.

I am willing to bet the Phils give Eaton another chance to show something not because they want him in their rotation but that some team might take him off the Phils hands if the Phils eat a portion of his contract next year. Better to swallow a $4-$5M cost than a $8.5M. Another team that is desperate for starting pitching MAY take a flyer on Eaton if he shows something in 2-3 spring training starts and the Phils are willing to pick up at least half of his salary.

As for Carrasco, it is looking more and more likely that the Phils can't move him. Myers is a FA after the '09 season and not exactly a ton of promising starters right now at AA or AAA ready to step in during the 2009.

One guy I am interested to see what he can do next year is Drabek. Kind of got lost in the shuffle due to TJ surgery but he should be back/healthy. Figure he starts the season in Lakewood but the Phils probably have him tracked to at least get to Reading by the end of next year.

Savery is another interesting guy too. Figure he begins the season again in Clearwater and if he shows something in April/May he gets a bump up to Reading by mid-season. Never saw him pitch but the scouting reports/numbers certainly weren't going last year. A pitcher that was supposedly so polished coming out a few years of college and struggling against single-A hitters isn't a good sign.

That's the thing, Savery WASN'T that polished coming out of college. Remember, he was supposed to be a top 5 pick but had injury/concerns. He's still working his way back/gaining velocity. He's gotta step up this year, but last year wasn't all bad. Had some solid starts in there.

My bet is that Drabek starts 09 in Clearwater for a variety of reasons.

His age, the weather, his AFL performance.

i was just being really unfunny about Eaton and BobbyD's exclusion of him from the SP depth list. please dont ever take me seriously again.

How long is Joe Blanton under our control?

Since we don't need either one for next year, Drabek and Savery should probably both spend a good bit of time in Clearwater this year before moving up to AA. If Carrasco can become a rotation staple next year, and Drabek in 2010, anything you get from guys like Savery and Happ would be a nice bonus. With Hamels and Blanton under control for at least a couple more years, it makes me wish Moyer would be happy with a one year deal.

craig_one: Don't worry, I got the joke :-) I was responding to Doc's question about how Eaton may be handled this year.

Blanton's last arbitration year is 2010, after that he can be a free agent.

NEPP: Drabek is in the Arizona Fall League?

Drabek is playing in Hawaii

Prediction #1: Savery will have arm surgery before end of 2009.

Prediction #2: Eaton will either open the season on the DL or on the 25-man roster. When is the last time the Phillies ate $8.5M in contract? Answer: Never. They wouldn't even cut Nunez and Taguchi, which would've been far smaller losses. Eaton will be a Phillie all season.

Nice to see that the Phillies have a choices for the rotation this year rather than 5 guys that you hope will be good and stay healthy. Since there were no major injuries on the starting staff last year, one would have to think at least a few minor injuries will occur this year. The in-house replacements are a nice thing to have when the injury bug hits.

Savery already had surgery on his labrum a few years ago. It takes a while to come back from that

clout: Does Savery have bad arm motion or are you making that statement due to the fact that he has been injured before? I've never seen the guy pitch, so I really don't know. I know Rice pitchers tend to have injury problems once they leave school.

clout: Who would have replaced Nunez on the roster had we cut him? And who in the organization was pressing Taguchi for a spot last year? Greg Golson?

I think there's a big difference between Eaton and those players. There will be no spot on the 25 man roster for Eaton next year. Whether he starts on the DL... or in the minors... or wherever, he won't be with the big club.

clout's right. They won't just eat $8.5 million. Eaton will see plenty of time in spring training. The best case scenario is to be able to trade him to someone who has injuries in spring training and needs a starter to open the year. Even paying $7 million of his contract would open up space for $1 to $1.5 million that could fetch a "Value Village" upgrade at the 2009 trade deadline. Otherwise, the guy who is in trouble is Clay Condrey - though we know Eaton is a diaster out of the pen, where else do you stick him when the rotation isn't an option and you might not want him in the minors?

Adam Eaton last pitched for the Phils on July 26th. Were they not "eating his salary" the second half of last year?

There's NO WAY he makes the Phils out of spring training. They could very well give him showcase starts as an attempt to trade him, but there's no spot on this team. None.

Drabek has been good in Hawaii:

IP: 16.1 Hits-7 ERA: 2.76 K-14 BB-4 WHIP-0.67 Runs-5 (3 in one start, 3 starts overall)

Lefties are hitting .118 and Right-handers are hitting .135.

It looks like Kyle is having a nice winter season. The R/L splits are good and so is the K/BB ratio. Very encouraging.

Well, if nothing else I hope they give Eaton a special World Series ring made up of Z color, I3 clarity stones.......

Carrasco and Happ will both be ready for the majors in spring training.

I'm very torn on this, but it might be a good idea not to reup moyer, especially considering he is classified as an A free agent, and would grab draft picks.

But then again, Moyer is probably my favorite player in baseball right now.

And I see the phillies eating Eaton's salary. He was actually WORSE in the minors stat wise than he was in the majors. He has simply forgot how to pitch, and it's ridiculous to think that a season after winning a championship, the phillies would waste space and innings on him when we now have so many better alternatives.

Eaton will be a Phillie, only technically. I can't imagine he sees any real time on the big league roster. They didn't even invite the guy to be in the parade! The idea that a team may be impressed by a start or two of his in the preseason is wishful thinking at its best.

Great to hear about Carrasco's progress. The real question, however, is with the number of innings. This past year he threw 150 or so, which means they do not want to use him for more than about 180. He might be ready for action, but not too much or we'll turn him into, like, Kerry Wood.

This comes from over at dugoutcentral.com. Randy Newsom, a 26-year old minor league in the Indians system is blogging on playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. He had this to say about Carrasco:

"I have played the last two years against Phillies prospect Carlos Carrasco and have watched him have pretty mixed results. However, I have heard a lot of really good baseball people talk him up and obviously the Phillies, who were in a pennant chase and looking for help, held on to him because they have high expectations. I get it now. Watching him day in and day out, not just when he is on the mound in the game, I realize that he is a special talent with a chance to be a really significant starting pitcher for a long time. He has shown a ton of ability but I really like how even when he is working hard it looks easy. He’s also a pretty good guy, and I enjoy making fun of his Cosmo Kramer haircut he’s sporting right now."

link:

http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?p=2039

Jamie Moyer will sign a 1 year deal comparable to what he made this year.

"And I see the phillies eating Eaton's salary. He was actually WORSE in the minors stat wise than he was in the majors. "

Didn't Eaton have to accept a demotion to the minors? And wouldn't that hold true in 2009? I don't see him doing that in 2009 -- if there is no room for him on the Phils ML roster, and there isn't, his quickest path back to the majors would be to be available to the 29 other teams rather than to hitch his wagon to the Phils. Either sit around a while until a disastrous injury bug strikes one team or maybe even go Indy to keep the arm in shape.

If Eaton's making 8.5M next year, I will be surprised if the Phils eat any less than 8.5M minus Veteran's Minimun (prorated).

Eaton is Gillick's #2 disaster (Floyd is #1, IMO). Gillick made some terrible moves, but -- he kept at it. Quietly, he moved past his mistakes and kept working at his problems. The more I think about how he built the team, the more I appreciate his resilience. He kept working, when Garcia/Lieber et al tanked, he managed to get Lohse. When Myers tanked and Kendrick started to tank, he went out and got Blanton. He filtered through the scrap heap and kept the good stuff*.

* Excepting So Taguchi. Or maybe Taguchi's role was being the 25th guy and not being disruptive. I suppose there is value in that. :)

A's get Holliday.

Edumndo: Dealing Floyd wasn't a disaster. He was given lots of opportunities here in Philly and no one shed a tear when he was gone. Dealing anyone for Freddy Garcia was a disaster.

That's good news...

I was really worried the Phils would pony up for Holliday and mortgage part of their future in the prospect.

I'm genuinely excited about seeing Marson, Donald, Carrasco and Happ on the ML roster by 2010. And absent a no-doubt-about-it trade... I don't want to see them succeeding for someone else.

Phils aren't eating Eaton's salary. Just not the way they operate. Now what happens to Eaton remains to be seen but guaranteed the Phils just don't outright release him this winter. Maybe in spring training if he is horrendous too but even then I would be stunned. More likely they make up a phanton injury but I can't imagine that Eaton would be too thrilled about not being able to pitch a contract year (yeah, yeah I know insert joke here).

If the Phils are going to have any realistic shot of repeating next year (and even making the playoffs if they don't resign Burrell and replace his offensive production), then they are going to need some meaningful contributions from their farm system.

I was still amazed that the Phils largely won a championship this year with really no meaningful contribution from anyone in their farm system. That is pretty unusual.

Holliday traded to A's. Does this increase our chances of resigning PtB?

Still don't understand all this love for likes of Donald (likely a super utility guy), Marson, and Happ. Yeah you need guys like this to replenish your team and round out your roster with serviceable, yet cheap talent but if the Phils are depending upon these guys to be key cogs on their team they are in trouble.

MG: The question isn't necessarily whether the Phils eat Eaton's salary. The question is whether he sees the 25 man roster with the Phils.

There is NO way that happens. Period.

I got my Phillies Roster T-shirt the other day, the one with the individual jerseys on the back.

And I remember as a kid, looking at those old pennants with the Phillies roster on the 1980 World Champions, and every one of those guys were just "better than" because they were World Champions. Of course I was 7, and knew nothing about back ends of rosters and Lefty Right splits etc.

I had zero issue with Gordon or Kendrick being on the back.

But Eaton's there. And I know, I know... I was one of his quality start defenders early in 2008. And he DID start 19 times for the Phillies.

it just feels... less than.

MG: I havne't heard a lot of people calling for them next year. I think Happ is major-league ready. And Marson may be the 2nd catcher next year. But I've said all along the target for these players should be 2010.

What's not to like about Marson? Phils don't have guys like him come around that often.

SI article says the A's are closing in on a deal. Doesn't seem like anything is final yet. Who are they getting for Holliday?

Think Holliday will be delt at the trade deadline?

My wishlist is now Jermaine Dye to fill our LF slot.

But we're taking a big OBP hit if that would be the case...

Bed Beard: For me... there's nothing not to like (is that proper English?).

Catching prospects that show high OBP ability aren't found all over the place (unless you're the Texas Rangers).

There's a reason many of the trade proposals we've heard have included his name.

Here's my order of preference:

1) Re-sign Pat Burrell. Maybe we'll be able to get him for a reasonable 3 year deal. He won't get a FNTC this time, but it won't matter. By next year, if he's still with the Phils, he'll be a 10 and 5 guy and get his FNTC anyway.

2) Sign Milton Bradley. I know he's got some question marks, but the market isn't great for RF currently. I think he can be had for 2 years and an option for year 3 at a reasonable price. He's also Type B, so we don't lose our 1st rounder.

3) If we don't get one of these two, the remaining options could be pretty ugly. They most likely include platooning Jenkins with someone like Hairston or Mench. Ugh. I think I'd rather make a run at Casey Blake, then.

Yo, new Holliday thread.

MLBTR is reporting that the A's have traded (or are close to trading) for Matt Holliday. Interesting in terms of Burrell. One it takes a LF option off the table for us and two I would have thought the A's would be interested in a the OBP manchine.

ESPN mentioned Greg Smith (rookie starter) was beleived to be involved in the Holliday trade.

Curious move.. will Beane flip those prospects he got into mlb talent this year and sign some free agents and go for it? He usually doesnt do things halfway. its either go for it all or completely blow it up.

Don't trade Carrasco. You don't potential stud starting pitchers (who will pitch for the league minimum for a while). Not with the price-tag, mediocre starting pitchers get nowadays (see Eaton, Adam) on the open market.

Starting pitching depth is about as important as anything in baseball. And, for once, the Phils appear to have that going into 2009. The way that pitchers go down nowadays (and are babied in some cases when any little injury comes up), depth in starters is ALWAYS a plus, that many teams (see the Mets from 07') don't have.

I have seen many of the usual names (Carrasco, Drabek, Happ, Carpenter and Savery) mentioned here in this thread, but don't forget about Antonio Bastardo, who may have a future as a reliever/lefty specialist and had a good year in the rotation going this year before getting hurt. And, there is another youngster in low A ball this year, that looked really good, that I cannot remember his name. Really dominated down there at the end of the year.

As for Marson, he has a lot of potential and a lot of tools. He will be knocking on the door for serious playing time in Philly very soon. At every stop, he has hit and gotten on base at a great clip. Not everyday, you see that from young catchers.

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