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Thursday, November 06, 2008

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Found on mlbtraderumors in today's San Jose Mercury News:
"Another Phillie name with local ties: Alameda’s Jimmy Rollins. There have been rumors that Philadelphia will listen to offers for the 2007 MVP. Even if true, the price would be prohibitively high. He’d look great in a Giants uniform, but I don’t see him being a realistic target for them."

seems impossible and ultimately undesirable. but still intriguing nevertheless. thoughts?

continuing from the last thread, suggesting that Werth replace Victorino in center field is just short of insane for so many reasons. first, if your answer to "who plays CF if Victorino is traded?" is Werth, then what's your answer to "who plays RF if Werth plays center?"

and then there's the significant drop-off in defense, injury risk at a key defensive position, loss of outfield depth, creation of another major hole in the lineup, loss of a young cost-controlled player, etc.

maybe if you could get something really valuable for Victorino it would be worth pursuing. but you will not get something really valuable, you'll get a different complementary player, in which case all you're doing is trading two nickles for a dime.

If I were playing a video game, I would consider trading Rollins for some young pitching and power OF and putting Donald at SS.

But since this is real life, where Rollins is as beloved as any athlete in the city, it shouldn't even be a possibility.

If we are talking trade, I would target Jermaine Dye, who has one year left on his contract in Chicago, one of our favorite trading partners.

Kenny Williams recently said Swisher won't be playing CF, so they have a surplus at the corners, and are looking to break up the slugging (and slow) trio of Dye/Thome/Konerko.

They love speed, and it's only one year, so I would start with Golson and add a few 'C' prospects. That, or maybe Myers.

lehk - Lincecum alone is more valuable than Rollins.

Why on earth would they give Cain and take on Eaton's contract?

Lincecum will probably win the Cy Young and he is young and cheap.

ae - We are actually pretty close to being in agreement. (The only difference we may have is that I think it easier to find an OFer to plug in than you do.)

I, obviously, would only advocate a Vic trade if Phils get a LOT in return. And maybe, just maybe, Vic is overvalued right now.

I don't think the Phillies should be conservative for the sake of being conservative. but I don't see any margin in taking apart the core players of this team. with the contracts to Utley, Rollins, and Lidge especially, the Phillies are built to compete now.

maybe you can package some of the more complementary players together to get an legitimate impact bat or arm. but I don't see it.

yeah, Bonehead, you're right that the important variable is how highly Victorino is valued. I do think he would be a really attractive player to a lot of teams if he was on the block--the White Sox especially would go for him I think. but I think trading him just creates kind of a domino effect on the rest of the team; we're not trading from a position of strength like we were with Bourn.

A move that looks better and better by the minute, when you read that Boras is asking for Silva money for Oliver Perez, is the Blanton trade.

MLBTR runs down all the Phillies' 2009 commitments. The ones already in place total $89M. With so many players who are due for big raises in arbitration, the article estimates it will rise to $115M. And that doesn't include Burrell or another left fielder, nor Moyer or a replacement.

It's certainly not out of the question that the Phillies could have a $115M payroll this year; in fact, they owe fans as much. But I have a hard time believing that ownership is going to go beyond that. That means they almost have to make some trades and at least one of those trades has to involve a high-salaried player. Of course, we'd all like that trade to be Jenkins ($6.7M), Feliz ($5M), and Eaton ($8.5M) for Ryan Ludwick. A more plausible scenario, however, is that it will involve someone who is actually a vital member of the team -- i.e., Rollins, Myers, Howard, Utley. Myers jumps off the page as someone whose 2009 salary ($12M) seems excessive relative to his 2008 performance. My guess: the Phillies actively shop Myers and are willing to accept little in return, provided the other team also takes Jenkins off their hands. Such a trade would free up $18M in salary -- although it would also leave them having to fill 2 starting rotation spots instead of 1.

Good observation, JW.
You have consistently and rightly been touting the Blanton acquisition.

BAP- Interesting idea re Brett. I wonder how secure Ruben & Cholly feel about Myers " maturation " this year.
If they are doubtful he will stay like second half Brett, I bet they will try to shop him now that his value is high.

Wonder how the postseason would have turned out if Eaton or Kendrick was taking Blanton's starts. Probably would have been at least one more home game...

The Phils control Ryan Madson through 2009, but don't expect his services to come cheap after that because he's represented by Scott Bora$ and he's comparing Madson to a young Mariano Rivera. You have got to be kidding me!

I thought accepting the fact that the Phillies are World Champs would be hard to overcome - but now Ryan Madson is one of the most valuable trade peices in the league?! I'm going to faint.

@ Clout :

There are a number of defensive statistics that fluctuate from year to year. For example, take Burrell. With a traditional stat, fielding percent, he was 3rd in the majors with a .991 last year. In 2007, he was last in the majors with a .948. Much has been made of the variance in a sabermetric statistic like RZR, and that also exists in some cases. Rollins was rated 4th last year by this measure, but 12th in 2007.

Of course, for some people it is rather consistent and for others it isn't. It is also useful to know what each statistic means, as they tend to only measure a part of a multi-faceted thing, defense. Just because something fluctuates year to year does not make it worthless. Offensive stats do as well - Rollins OPS changed almost 100 points this year from last. This does not indicate some sort of flaw with the statistic but rather is simply the reality of baseball measurements.

Bonehead, I'm not sure Vic IS overvalued.

Take a look at the starting CF on all MLB teams. Eliminate the teams that Vic DEFINITIVELY could not start on.

My list:

Toronto - Wells
Tampa - Upton
Tribe - Sizemore
Tigers - Granderson
Halos - Hunter
Texas - Hamilton (who would be moved to RF)
M's - Ichiro
Mets - Beltran
Buccos - McLouth

And the MAYBEs

LA - Kemp
Giants - Rowand

You can debate the list, but that puts Vic in the top 3rd of MLB CFs.

That's not exactly being "overvalued".


After the parade, I was thinking that I'd take a couple week hiatus from thinking about baseball, but shoot, I'm right back into it, enjoying the start of what promises to be a most interesting off-season.

AWH: make a list of players who would start, in CF, over Vic:

Beltran,Sizemore,Granderson. Thats about it. Eeveryone else on your list would either move to RF or just not start over Vic.

Upton isnt really good, jsut a good postseason. Wells sucks, hunter is old, hamilton to RF as you said, ichiro already plays RF, McLouth.. eh maybe you have a point.

"Wonder how the postseason would have turned out if Eaton or Kendrick was taking Blanton's starts."

Doubt that would have happened. All other things being equal, I'm sure Happ would have started those games.

I love Cardenas (he'll make a few all-star teams), and to a lesser extent Outman, but the marginal value of what Blanton meant to the team means the trade has to be considered a win even if Cardenas becomes the second coming of Utley.

CY: of course the Giants wouldn't do that. My point wasn't that Rollins is more valuable to the Giants than that heap of talent I alluded to, but rather that Rollins is so valuable to the phillies that it wouldn't make sense to deal him without the other team giving up a beyond ridiculous amount of talent. My point was that if a team comes calling for Rollins, you start by asking for their two best players, and proceed from there. Bottom line, we're not gonna trade Rollins anytime soon, and his value is through the roof (MVP, best defensive SS, team leader, amazing contract - he's Jeter to this team and then some).

Dave X: I'm not sure it's fair to compare flucuation in defensive statistics like RZR and offensive statistics like OPS. The former is based on subjective measures while the latter is based on objective measures.

Upton isnt really good, jsut a good postseason.

ha ha ha, good one!

wait, seriously?

"Upton isnt really good, jsut a good postseason."
The sky is the limit for that guy -- I'd have to roll the dice that his future blows away Victorino's. If you had both him and Victorino, you trade Victorino if you have a competent RF. YMMV, of course.

Oh, and if you look at the contracts some of the guys above Vic on the list have (i.e. Beltran, Wells, Ichiro), and consider that they control Vic for 3 more years, I don't know how he could possibly be "overvalued".

AWH - I agree with you and ae regarding Vic's value.
My advocacy of a Vic trade would only be if we found a GM willing to overpay. Because of Vic's recent high profile; and because of his youth, speed, salary; and because of the demand around MLB right now for CFers; maybe, just maybe that GM exists.

All I am saying is, if I were the Phils GM, I would listen to the offers (and even stir the pot a little).

Lets '97 Marlins this beotch! We've got the peices to be a 10 year dynasty by blowing this up, saving up tons of money, loading pitching prospects and, unlike the marlins, expand the payroll to keep most of them.

AWH: On your MAYBE list, I'd move Kemp definitively above Victorino, and Rowand definitively below Victorino. Kemp is 23 and already has 2 seasons better offensively than any Victorino has had. Shane is better defensively right now, but based on offense and potential, Kemp is a no-brainer. Rowand is the flipside- he was worse this season than Shane offensively and defensively, and is a good bet to only get worse as he gets older.

On your "definitely" better list, I'd probably put McLouth onto the "maybe" list. I'm not so sure he wasn't an offensive fluke this season, and I would take Shane over him on defense.

Upton will be lucky to turn into Milton Bradley.

ae, to respond to your post on the previous thread about Abreu and Damon, would you really, at this point in their careers, choose Damon or Abreu to be in your outfield instead of Vic?

Just asking?

Trading Myers makes no sense. It would leave a huge hole in our rotation, and his value is low right now relative to his talent. The last half of last year and the playoffs he looked like the 120ERA+ Myers of old. My assumption is next year he will perform somewhere close to that, and we'll need him to be competitive again.

no, AWH, I don't think that. my point was that the Yankees did, in fact, have a pretty good outfield in 2008 (strictly looking at offense as I said in the last thread). and I would not be surprised if Damon & Abreu outhit Victorino next year as well. his defense and his contract are what make Victorino valuable.

Saw today that Jason Donald is getting some work at third base. That's a great thing. Hopefully it works out and he can replace Feliz... maybe before this year is over!

ae, defense and contract - yes.

But, CFs that hit .292 and steal 35-40 bases don't grow on trees.

I know OPS is the Holy Grail of all offensive stats, and a big part of that is SLG, but a guy like Vic who can add a base to a single is nearly as valuable as a guy who hits the double in the first place. The net result is they're on 2nd base.


I stand by my statement that Vic is a better (and I meant all-around) than anyone in the Yankees OF.

Brian: I'm just telling you what I think they'll do. I basically agree: you trade Myers, you just create 2 holes where we now have 1. And, while his price may be too high, Myers is still an above average pitcher in a league where there aren't too many of those. Still, I could see the Phillies trying to bootstrap Jenkins to a Brett Myers trade, in order to give them the money to be players in free agency.

To me, all of this points inexorably toward this conclusion: Jason Donald (or possibly Michael Taylor) should start in LF this year. He won't give you Pat Burrell numbers (certainly not as a rookie), but it will be much better than any platoon & he's going to get better with experience. When you have 2 needs to fill, little money to fill them, and a way of filling one of those needs on the cheap, you've got to do it.

The Phillies, of course, think rookies are "risky" (this from the team whose draft philosophy is in the 99th percentile of riskiness). But a rookie who hit well in the high minors is LESS risky than a platoon of a garbage right-hander and a left-hander whose numbers have been in sharp decline for 3 straight seasons.

Jason Donald is a Boras client as well. ~shudders~

"Upton will be lucky to turn into Milton Bradley."

Curious, what do you base your opinion on?
Upton just turned 24, has a lifetime OPS+ of 109 with several years growth ahead of him, we can presume. Bradley's OPS+ is 118, so that is likely a reasonable estimation of where Upton will be by age 30. His upside is way higher, dependent on how much power he can develop. Upton's athleticism should allow him to stay in CF while Bradley didn't last long there. Upton's got the baserunning on MB to boot. I would be very surprised if Upton's career doesn't exceed MB's by a fair margin.
After his age 23/24 year of 2008, Upton's lifetime OPS+ exceeds Victorino's best year at 27.
No doubt that Vic is the more polished CF at this point. It will be interesting to see if Upton can make himself an elite defensive CF or not.


bap: From Amaro:

"We may put [Donald] out there [in the outfield] at some point, but right now it's not an option," Amaro said. "He's a valuable infielder, and he could be a valuable middle infielder. That's a premium position."

I don't see them doing this. Donald has significantly more value as an infielder.

before you trash Upton, you might want to look at his 2007 season. it is significantly better than anything Victorino has ever done. I mean like not even close.

I booed the guy as much as anyone and was real happy to see him come up small in the World Series, but he's an enormously talented young player who's probably going to be a perennial All-Star. Victorino is not in the same discussion.

I wouldn't be opposed to trading Brett Myers, if we can get a decent return.
He's wildly inconsistent, injury prone, makes 12 million this year and won't be back in 2010. There is a solid chance Myers won't be a type A free agent in 2010, in which case we wouldn't be compensated.

Upton>Bradley over the course of his career. Close to a no-brainer.

CJ: He doesn't have "significantly more value as an infielder" if he's sitting on the bench. Donald's value is his bat and there isn't anywhere for him to play in the Phillies' 2009 infield. However, there is a gaping hole in left field & little money to fill it. Sounds like a marriage to me.

bap: I believe there is a rather large hole at third base. You disagree?

I'm not exactly sure there is a "rather large hole" at 3b. I'm very mixed on Feliz, but the 3/4 Feliz 1/4 Dobbs (or whatever) was a WS winner. I'd look to upgrade there, if possible, but LF is the large hole, not 3b.

As much as I love J-Roll, he's the only member of our core that maybe we could afford to lose. He has an attractive contract and is approaching the age when shortstops tend to decline. That being said, I wouldn't consider trading him unless we got a young #2 starter and/or upgrade over Burrell in LF. A lot of teams could use a SS right now, and J-Roll's value might never be higher.

More likely scenario: test/showcase Jason Donald on the 09 MLB roster for several months before making a decision.

Although I wouldn't mind keeping both Donald and Rollins, Donald is much more valuable at shortstop than 3B.

I'm also not opposed to bringing Michael Taylor to spring training (contrary to what someone in the last thread wrote, he is right-handed). Ideally, you'd like to see him prove that he can hit at a high level of the minors before bringing him up to the not ideal. Taylor hit like absolute gang-majors. But the Phillies' LF situation is busters in Single A last year &, with 3 years of Pac-10 experience, it's not unreasonable to put him on the fast track to the majors. At least give him a shot to win the job in spring training.

This Jason Donald love seems a bit over the top to me. Sure he had a nice year in AA. That's still a long way from the majors. Am I content having him as my callup if Rollins gets hurt? Yeah, that's reasonable. Is he ready for a full-time IF position in the majors? Seems like a reach to me -- his defense is questioned by many as far as his ability to be an every day SS.
Back to the offense -- if he got a starting position for the Phils next year, could we expect anything more than an 80-85 OPS+ mark from him? Even if you are more optimistic than me, what are the odds that he could hit enough to make for a passable LF?

Bed Beard: I tend to believe we won the World Series in spite of our bad third base, not because of it. I don't think we won the World Series because Adam Eaton pitched for us for half the year... but he did.

I saw Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino on Fox's The Best Damn Sports Show Period last night. They had some early photos of each. There was one of Cole as a Little Leaguer wearing a Phillies uniform! They also replayed a bleeped out version of Utley's post parade signature line in CBP.

Do Shane and Cole both have the same agent? They appeared together on the QVC special the night of the Parade. Shane needs to get some fashion sense. For both shows he wore similarly styled ugly T-Shirts. Shane, dressing better in public on TV will earn you more money down the road. Quit looking like a bum!

If the Phillies traded Myers, I'm sure it would be to sign a Derek Lowe type.

Donald to the OF makes no sense, for multiple reasons.

1) He's never played there

2) You could probably sign Bobby Kielty or Gabe Kapler, platoon them with Stairs or Jenkins, and get comparable offensive numbers.

3) Longterm, he seems a good bet to be the future 3B, and it would deny him the chance to develop.

4) You have Michael Taylor, and to a much lesser extent, Golson, as possible future corner OF. No need to block that with a guy who might be able to play a position where the organization has zero depth (3B).

Frankly, from what I hear from Amaro, unless Burrell gives the team a serious hometown discount, I think we will see #2, a cheap righty to platoon with Jenkins.

Edmundo: That's why I'm advocating a few months of third base at AAA next year followed by a callup and a regular third base gig with the major league team. Of course, if his AAA run is disappointing, we leave him down there as he continues to develop.

Dave X: Do you believe defensive measurements are as accurate in reflecting a player's defense as offensive measurements are in measuring offense?

Did Rollins OPS fluctuate just because it always fluctuates or because he was hurt and that caused a power drop?

I interrupt this hot stoving as I continue to live vicariously through last week.

Anyone know if/when the Phils will release their official '08 WS champions DVD as produced by the club (i.e. 'High Hopes' in '93 and 'Goosebumps' last year)?

Carrasco, Donald and Happ for Peavy?

Donald for Ludwick?

CJ: I agree about the hole at third base but I'm also a pragmatist. For better or for worse, Feliz is going to be with us for one more year. If used properly -- i.e., in a strict platoon -- our third base situation is a tolerable one-year stop-gap.

I'm looking at the bottom line here. We need a left fielder and a pitcher and, unless ownership plans to go beyond $115M, we have no money for either one. If you put Donald at third base, you still have 2 big needs to fill. If you put him in LF, we only have 1.

Here's the thing...

If Jason Donald isn't going to be the third baseman of the future for the Phillies... you deal him this offseason. When is his value ever going to be higher? Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins aren't going anywhere and it'd be stupid to change their positions.

CJ: I'm with you. It's the posters who want Donald in the majors come April that I think are, well, over-zealous suitors.

Wait, there's posters on here who think the Phillies can make the playoffs in 2009 with Jason Donald as the starting leftfiedler?!!! Are you kidding me!!! The guy has yet to take an at bat in AAA and has never played the position professionally and he's playoff caliber?

TK-
You know they will release it soon enough to be on every Phillies Phan Christmas list!


I don't think Donald being on the MLB roster in April is outlandish at all. Being the starting LF/3b is outlandish, however.

I've thought it odd that Geoff Jenkins has primarily been a LF up to age 30 and then spent 3 of the next 4 years as a RF. That's an odd progression.

CJ - I think both the Pads and the Cards would laugh at those deals. You don't get aces for a solid pitching prospect, a future utility infielder and a no. 4-5 starter.

BedBeard: Yes, that's right. Using Feliz/Dobbs is why the Phillies won the World Series. No need to upgrade.

Sheesh!

If the Phils infielders are healthy to start 09, you have to let Donald get 3B experience in AAA. You don't want him atrophying on the bench plus you want to see if he builds on 08 offensively or regresses to some mean that is lower than we'd all like.

I don't know how good he really can be, but I think Donald will end up being better than a "future utility infielder".

Clout: Did you actually read what I posted or are you, once again, resorting to your idiotic knee jerk interpretations that suit your needs?

To sum it up: Despite what you think, 3b isn't a "large hole", but yes, upgrade if possible. LF is more of a priority. No?


I really doubt the Phillies will sign a FA starting pitcher other than Jamie Moyer. I could see them trading for a cheaper option.

I'd like to take a look at Zach Grienke. He has great command, Peavy-type stuff and is only 25. We match up fairly well with the Royals: 2B, C, CF.

"Using Feliz/Dobbs is why the Phillies won the World Series. No need to upgrade.

Sheesh!"

You are the only one saying this. Sheesh.

The Feliz/Dobbs combo is a below average 3B. Okay? Not god-awful replacement level. Maybe you think that.

Dobbs is barely functional defensively, Feliz is barely(?) functional against RHP. Platooning with the shortened benchs of the modern era is less advantageous than it was in the Stengel days.

The club was strong enough to carry a below average 3B in 2008 and win a Series. That does not mean that 3B is why the Phils won the WS. Okay?

If they replace Burrell with a weak LF, then they are not likely to be able to carry a below average 3B and win a World Series. (Barring signing CC and trading Myers for Russell Martin or some other scenario that won't happen.)

I doubt that there is one poster here who would say that if you could do a decent upgrade at 3B you shouldn't do it.

BedBeard: If Burrell walks, as everyone on Beerleaguer assumes, I'd agree. But that hasn't happened yet, no?

Edmundo: What do the defensive stats, bas as they are, say about Dobbs? Do they say he's "barely functional"? I'll give you a minute to compare his defense stats with Feliz's.

The notion that someone cannot develop at more than one position at a time is funny to me...obviously Donald has been playing SS and 2b for the most part, 3b is not that much different (more reaction plays and longer throws, but infield nonetheless).

You can see that hard work anywhere can improve your defense immensely (see Utley, Chase).

As far as LF goes, its a matter of being able to read the ball off the bat and hit the cutoff man.

If Donald is a competant fielder (I don't believe anyone has questioned that, they are more worried about his consistency), I don't see why he couldn't fill the LF RHB need in '09, while getting a start or two at 3b when a Myers or Blanton is starting in prep for his '10 role at third.

I've said it before, its imperative that you have the young guys not only for their youth, but their low salaries to balance out the Hamels, Utleys and Howards.

I don't buy that he can't play LF. If you can play SS, you can certainly play the easiest defensive position.

I also don't buy that you can't start him because he has never played in the major leagues. By that logic, no rookie should ever be a starter.

And I sure don't buy Edmundo's theory that great minor league numbers are somehow irrelevant as a predictor of future major league success.

The best argument for not using Donald in LF is that it would deprive him of the chance to learn third base. That is a valid argument. However, I would note that he seems to be playing third base quite well in the AFL, which suggests to me that maybe the learning curve isn't nearly as steep as people are making it out to be. There have been plenty of major league players who bounced around from position to position throughout their careers. I think people greatly overstate the difficulties of doing it. If you can play shortstop, and you have a good arm, what is it about playing third base that is so difficult to learn? I think this conventional wisdom is largely BS.

Agreed BAP, and I also agree about the video yearbook...is there a list that we could get on, TK?

I used to watch those things religiously throughout the offseason, with '93 being my #1 most watched of course!

bap: I agree that third base should be an easy transition. It's all about the arm if you can already play short. Feliz, for example, is a converted shortstop. And I'm not going to argue that he can't play LF because most baseball players can. I just don't believe it makes sense to transition him to the outfield when we're going to have a hole at third base by next season at the latest.

I like Victorino alot. He's fun to watch. It's apparent, however, that some posters havent' seen McLouth play if they think Victorino would steal his spot. Perhaps he had a fluke year, but his performance this year is consistent with his progression through the minors. He gets better every year. He tailed off at the end of this year, but I don't think that's any portent of what he will do over his career. He's not a prototypical athlete, but, he's a baseball player, pure and simple. Fundamentally sound. Getting stronger as evidenced by teh power numbers. Never takes a day or a play off. Steals some bases. Terrific fielder. I can guarantee you the Pirates would laugh if you suggested a straight up trade for Vic, who is a year older.

Clout: Why are you such an ass when you talk to people? Have you ever learned to give your opinion but RESPECT others? Your sh*t smells too and your not an all-knowing baseball god.

Someone also mentioned Nick Swisher, whom the White Sox are shopping. Swisher is a very similar player to Burrell in that they both hit for poor to middling average, have pretty good power, and draw tons of walks. Only difference is that Swisher is a switch hitter, plays much better defense, but doesn't quite have Burrell's power.

Swisher is also coming off a season very much like Burrell's 2003 season -- which would probably scare a lot of people away. To me, it means that now would be a good time to trade for him, as his value will never be lower. On balance, I would rate Swisher & Burrell pretty close to dead even.

PhilliesPhan: You'll have to learn to put everything clout says through a filter. No sense in taking arms up against the sea.

Ok, my turn: to me, if Dobbs was right-handed, I would have no problem moving him to left field. After watching the likes of Polanco, Burrell, and Bruntlett play out there, how could Dobbs be any worse? For me, the issue is that you still need a right-handed power bat to balance the line-up.

Colin K: I don't think anyone would disagree that switching positions is not all that difficult for many players. Where we disagree is taking a Double A player, put him in the major leagues and, on top of that, give him spring training to learn a position he's never played before and expect him to play playoff caliber ball there.

That, my friends, is nuts.

CJ: lol i know, I just imagine him talking to someone the way he talks to people on here and getting punched in the face. But thanks for your advice and your probably right.

"I sure don't buy Edmundo's theory that great minor league numbers are somehow irrelevant as a predictor of future major league success."
Of course I didn't quite say that -- I'm just doubting that Donald will have something beyond a mediocre year in 2009. A jump from AA to the majors for a good hitting player can pan out, it just usually doesn't.
Add a very good catcher for Myers and sign CC, I'll drive Donald out to LF for opening day in the Phanatic's golf cart. :)

Again, who said Feliz/Dobbs is the reason the Phils won the world series? Sheesh is right.

clout: "expect him to play playoff calibur ball" ~ i think if all those circumstances you mentioned above actually happened, his expectations would not be that high

From the Denver Post:

"O'Dowd has been laying the groundwork for weeks regarding Holliday, trying to sift through the best fits. O'Dowd held extensive talks with Philadelphia in July regarding Holliday and Brian Fuentes, asking for Triple-A pitching prospect Carlos Carrasco and big-league starter J.A. Happ. In the playoffs, multiple Phillies players were convinced the team would make another serious run at Holliday if left fielder Pat Burrell wasn't re-signed."

AND I am perfectly fine with the Feliz/Dobbs platoon. It worked last year, so what, all of the sudden its not going to work anymore? If you need defense and a 1 for 5 in the lineup, you play Feliz. If you want good offense and below average D, you play Dobbs. I don't see the big deal, several teams platoon at least at one position.

BAP: I don't think anyone is saying that what you are suggesting -- That Jason Donald can skip AAA, learn a new position in spring training and be a solid everyday playoff-caliber leftfielder -- is impossible. We are saying that it is extremely unlikely. Jason Donald is not the best prospect in baseball, despite what you read on Beerleaguer.

How about Madson, Carrasco, Donald and Jaramillo for Peavy?
SD needs a closer/setup, middle infielder, starting pitcher and backup catcher. I'd rather give them Happ than Carrasco, but that probably wouldn't be enough.

lekh - Got you. I agree we won't be trading Rollins anytime soon. But is I were offered Lincecum for rollins I would take it and go try to fill SS somehow (furcal). That doesn't work in reality, beacuse as you mentioned, no one will give us enough to make it worth it.

I would be happy if they just signed Sheets and Burrell. Not sure that happens in reality either.

Just a thought...the Rays played a SS Ben Zobrist in right field, and he had little experience there and did fine defensively.

Dobbs' defensive stats are largely irrelevant because he simply hasn't played the position enough. Because of the fluctuation and subjectivity of the data, you need two to three full seasons to really understand anything through defensive numbers.

If you can't tell from observation that Dobbs is "barely functional" as a defensive 3B, you don't understand baseball.

CY: That would be hard to turn down, if Galvis had had a breakout year (he hasn't) and was close to the bigs (he's not) than maybe we could hold down the fort with Donald, but it would be a HUGE blow to the offense and especially the defense. The rotation wouldn't be half bad though.

PhilliesPhan: If it were a straight platoon, I'd agree.

Since you don't think Donald should be expected to play at playoffcaliber aI assume you're happy with the Phillies not making the playoffs, no? Or do you think they can make the playoff next season with Jason Donald as the starting leftfielder?

kdon: Agreed. and you can always twist stats to agree with you, that's why stats can be flawed. What I mean by that is, you can always find a stat to support your opinion.

kdon: "If you can't tell from observation that Dobbs is "barely functional" as a defensive 3B, you don't understand baseball."

Dobbs has clearly improved defensively and it was quite noticeable as he got more playing time late last season. It doesn't surprise me at all that you missed it.

clout: I think that the Phillies could make the playoffs with Donald in left field if they sign some starting pitching. Burrell only hit .210 with 29 RBI's after the All-Star break, and I don't think it would be too difficult for him to match that.

Also, I like the idea of Swisher. What do you think it would take to get him? We certainly have been a trade partner with ChiA in the past.

How long is he under control for?

Would you want to try and add Vazquez to the deal? They are low on him as well.

clout: However, if the Phillies made zero other moves, than no, the Phillies probably wouldn't make the playoffs with Donald in left. It all depends on what other moves they make.
Personally, I would package some prospects and go after Holliday if Burrell doesn't come back.

Any thoughts on Milton Bradley? He's injury prone and strikes out a good deal, but you're not gonna find a better OBP this side of Barry Bonds. From everything I've read, the "anger" problem is overblown and its more an "emotion" problem as he is prone to cry. The ability to mesh players like this into the clubhouse is what guys like Cholly are hired for (that and for being World Phucking Champions). He'd produce the hell out of Burrell and if his knees hold up should play better defensively. A 3 year deal would be too risky, but he might not get that. As much as I think Ordonez is the perfect fit for this lineup, his salary makes his acquistion unlikely (thank you Adam Eaton, Pedro Feliz, Geoff Jenkins).

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EST. 2005

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