October constants: Hamels, and poor play by foes

Sitting here reviewing a game-by-game synopsis of the postseason, I’m struck by how many times the Phils cashed in on the other team’s mistakes. It happened so many times, it makes me feel just a little guilty, then I remember that Cole Hamels notched four incredible wins.

The first win of the postseason, Game 1 against the Brewers, happened because Cole Hamels was brilliant, but also because Milwaukee gift wrapped all three of the Phillies runs in the third inning because of mishandled plays. Then in Game 1 of the championship series, another Hamels gem, the Phils followed Rafael Furcal’s wild throw with a pair of home runs, scoring three. Furcal would later suffer a three-error meltdown in the series clincher, enough to reward another fantastic start by Hamels all on his own.

There were other non-Hamels related moments, too, like the hit batsman and passed ball that sparked the Game 3 squibber rally against Tampa. None of the opposing offensives played particularly well and most of the marquee stars, like Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria, for example, disappeared entirely.

Other constants would include a fine showing by the Phillies' bullpen, and speaking of which ...

Lidge finishes fourth in Cy Young voting: Phillies closer Brad Lidge received a second-place vote and seven third-place votes for 10 points total to finish fourth in Cy Young voting behind winner Tim Lincecum of the Giants, who received 23 of 32 first-place votes. Arizona's Brandon Webb and New York's Johan Santana finished second and third. Milwaukee's CC Sabathia took fifth.

Comments

[NEPP]

I put all of the credit on that fearsome presence at the Hot Corner that is Pedro Feliz. He mentally unraveled the opposing team just with his presence on the diamond.

Pat Gillick knew it when he signed him. UC knew it when he kept running him out there night after night and all of us should show Pedro the proper respect.

[Edmundo]

"then I remember that Cole Hamels notched five incredible wins"

Except it was 4 wins. They say the short term memory is the first thing to go...

[bay_area_phan]

Edmundo: I heard it's the second thing to go.

[Jack]

AWH: Calm down, dude. No need to rant for 7 paragraphs about me. I was merely saying that I thought your philosophy of not valuing draft picks because they don't help with the current window is misguided. My theory is that those draft picks help to create new windows of opportunity long-term, and that's a good thing to be focused on, as well as winning right now. Personally, I hope that there's a focus on building long-term in the front office.

This group of players has won a title and most of them aren't going anywhere for the next couple years. It seems to me that you can makes tweaks around the periphery, like we have the last couple yers, and be able to compete for a championship, without having to sacrifice things like draft picks and prospects than can help us to compete in a longer-term window.

[NEPP]

I hate to be the voice of reason here but...

...odds are we aren't repeating in 2009. Our pitching staff is gonna suffer a hangover effect. Hamels was over 250 innings for the year at Age 24. Moyer is almost certainly not gonna repeat his 08 effort. Blanton and Myers should be good but then who knows? Happ is an okay 5th starter and we have Carrasco nearly ready but we have no idea if the Bullpen does as well. IF they stay healthy (which is a big IF) then Lidge, Madson, Romero, & Eyre should be solid. Which Durbin do we get though? The unstoppable middle reliever from the first 4 months or the guy that couldn't get outs in the playoffs? Was he not as good in the final part of the season due to overuse or due to better advance scouting by our opponents?

Howard SHOULD be better next year as should Utley. Rollins should give a similar performance to 08 and Vic should continue to improve. 3B is a question mark and LF is a huge question mark.

I would put our odds of repeating in the 10-20% range.

So I'm gonna sit back in my WS hat and my WS T-shirt and enjoy our Championship team with the knowledge that it might be another 28 years till we win again. Its all good though as WE WON THE WORLD SERIES!!!

[Kutztown fan]

Before anyone predicts that the Phils won't repeat in 2009, think back to last year at this time. At that time, did anyone - ANYONE - predict the Phils would win the 2008 World Series? Not that I remember. Most had them finishing 3rd behind the Mets and the Braves.

I'm not saying the Phils WILL repeat. I'm saying that no one should feel extremely confident about making any predictions.

[NEPP]

Ken Rosenthal had an interesting article today: Looks like Randy Johnson might not be going back to the DBacks due to salary issues with the team. As he's chasing 300 wins (5 away) he'll definitely be playing next year. I'd sign him in a heartbeat as he's still a decent back of the rotation presence even at age 46 (his age in 09)

[Bedrosian's Beard]

"Not that I remember. Most had them finishing 3rd behind the Mets and the Braves."

A minority of people thought the Braves would be better than the Phils. At least, on BL.

[NEPP]

I predicted 93 wins at the start of the season and here's my BLOG entry from March 25th on the Phillies (where I predicted we'd win the NL East)

"First Place - Philadelphia Phillies: It will be very close...very close for the Phillies to repeat as NL East champs. The acquisition of Johan Santana by the Mets was not the deathknell that many in Philly thought it to be. The Mets have just as many question marks as the Fightin' Phils. A truly outstanding lineup featuring 2 MVPs in Rollins and Howard along with the best 2B in baseball Chase Utley has not weakened one bit this off-season. The siging of Pedro Feliz will add another 25 HRs to the mix and moving Shane Victorino to CF will allow him to showcase his blazing speed and powerful arm. LF Pat Burrell is in a contract year and is always good for 30 HR/90 RBI and the RF platoon of Geoff Jenkins and Jason Werth should be solid. The pitching is questionable after Brett Myers and Cole Hamels but the Phillies lineup should score enough runs to keep them in almost every game. Look for a disappointing 2nd season for 1st year standout Kyle Kendrick but hopefully Jamie Moyer has just enough left in the tank and a combination of Adam Eaton and Kris Benson (when he's back healthy) will be just enough pitching to win another division. 90-95 wins"

I was way off on Eaton/Benson and Feliz's impact but I think it was a decent prediction overall.

[Tony D]

NEPP, just curious, how many cups of coffee do you drink during the day?

[NEPP]

Um...Alot. Why?

[Tartan69]

I've asked this before, but have yet to get an answer: what about Junior Griffey in left field to replace Burrell? Even at 39 he can't be any less athletic in left field than PtB. Or is the fact that he's a left-handed bat the showstopper here? Or does he really just have nothing at all left in the tank?

[Tony D]

It just seems like you talk a mile a minute. And you post more than anyone else here. You're addicted to Beerleaguer.

[Sam]

It just goes to show you that championships and even regular season records only happen in the regular season.

I remember on paper the mets had a perfect rotation that couldn't be beat, etc. etc.

We started the season with Eaton and Kendrick and finished with Blanton and Happ.

Lidge was supposed to lose his head.

When we look back at preseason predictions, it's almost laughable. Seasons are not set in stone, they mutate and defy both logic and expectations.

[NEPP]

I'm off work today so I'm basically not doing anything else than post here. I don't post as often when I'm actually working (most workdays).

On Predictions: I was stunned that I got 4 of 6 division winners right this year. I was way way off on alot of things (Detroit getting 100 wins...I mean WOW) but 4 of 6...woohoo.

[CY]

I will take 10-20%. Those aren't bad odds. I think a more realistic % would be about 5. Repeating is tough to do.

We will need significant contributions from Happ and Carrasco, along with a Free agent SP and LFer. I would take Burrel and Moyer. Would be happier with Sheets.

Anyone think 3 years 25-30 million gets it done with Sheets? Not a bad risk, gave about the same to Eaton.

[loctastic]

I keep hearing the 5 Cole Hamels wins number too. Why is that? He won game 1 against milwaukee, games 1 and 5 against LA, and game 1 against tampa. He came out for a pinch-hitter when game 5 resumed, and they went up that inning, but then it got tied again after that.

So it's 4 wins. Or am I missing something?

[Kutztown fan]

NEPP - you are the exception. Good prediction - other than the Feliz offense thing. (That should inspire many posts, if Beerleaguer posters stay true to themselves.)

I'm always fascinated to read everyone's posts. I've learned a lot. The predictions are interesting, but I still say that predictions should be taken lightly, especially at this time of the year.

[philsphan]

It would have been 5 October wins for Cole Hamels if it wasn't for that Baldelli HR in Game 5 of the World Series!

[BENTZ]

Salomon Torres retires today...not that he's great, but helped stabilize the Brewers pen a little. Makes them another team really in need of a closer:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/11/11/torres.retires.ap/index.html

[Brian G]

CY: No way 3 years 30 mil gets it done for Sheets. Not sure what that number will be but while he is very injury prone he is also an ace talent that produces like that when healthy.

[jr]

Grif,I'd take a flyer on Ibanez before Grif.

[mm]

NEPP: "I'd sign him(Randy Johnson) in a heartbeat as he's still a decent back of the rotation presence even at age 46."

If nothing else, at least it would spell an instant endorsement deal for Moyers and Johnson for BEN-GAY or Cialis.

[control13]

"Howard SHOULD be better next year as should Utley. Rollins should give a similar performance to 08 and Vic should continue to improve. 3B is a question mark and LF is a huge question mark."

I would forecast JRoll to have a better year at the plate than '08. Maybe not like '07, but he had a pretty tough time this year, and unless he's starting to decline, I say he bounces back.

[Edmundo]

From everything I've read, Ibanez is god-awful in the field. Might make us long for the Pat Burrell years. :)

[jr]

Don't have to worry about Ibanez,Phils will be outbid. The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reports the New York Mets are very interested in free-agent OF Raul Ibanez (Mariners). Ibanez seems to fit what general manager Omar Minaya is seeking in an outfielder.

[mike cunningham]

BTW, the David Price lovefest continues as he's declared one of ESPN's NEXT athletes:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/nextathlete?id=3633940

[mm]

"Ibanez seems to fit what general manager Omar Minaya is seeking in an outfielder."

Aging, Overpriced, and having a latin background?

[MG]

What still amazes me is the number of fortunate bounces, breaks, and matchups the Phils got this entire offseason. Yeah a few things went against them but I can't remember a Philly sports team being on the end of so much good fortune over an extended time span in the playoffs.

[ae]

no baseball team has repeated since the Yankees in 2000. clearly there's extremely, ridiculously long odds against the Phillies doing it again in 2009. 10%-20% is just crazily optimistic.

[bay_area_phan]

Ibanez has much more left than Griffey, but the Phillies need Burrell's replacement to be right-handed. Neither Griffey nor Ibanez fits the bill.

[AWH]

MG, yeah, I guess you're right. The Phillies didn't show up and hit and pitch, especially pitch. Damn that Cole Hamels is one fortunate guy. He sucks, really, but boy was he fortunate he got all those breaks. I mean, he has no fastball, and that changeup really blows. And to think
Bud "The Dud" Selig actually was kind enough to let him pitch in that rainstorm until he couldn't even grip the ball anymore and then gave up that run..............man, that was fortunate.

And that Howard guy.....boy the Philies and he were fortunate he didn't hit well except for a couple of games. Ditto with that guy Burrell....why, he was lucky just to get his bat on the ball. And that lucky ass second baseman Utley.....boy he was really fortunate on all those defensive plays he made. And those HRs......wow, how did he do that.....close his eyes and swing?

And that Phillies bullpen, especially that guy Lidge.......fortunate the whole way....he doesn't even have a good pitch and can't throw hard.....boy was he fortunate to get people out. Why, the baseball gods MUST have been putting the mojo on opposing hitters, wand willing them to miss the ball.

And most of all that guys Stairs. He had never hit a HR in his whole life......then he steps up, closes his eyes and swings as hard as he can and makes contact? Unbelievably fortunate. I'll bet if you checked, he probably paid that pitcher to hit his bat with the ball.

Oh......wait.....

[Dickiet Thon]

Hey phans - sorry if you've seen this before, but certainly this bit of parade magic deserves its own article, no?

http://www.i-am-bored.com/bored_link.cfm?link_id=35480

[clout]

AWH's point about draft picks is a good one. Beerleaguers, including me, way overrate the value of draft picks. Maybe 1 in 3 actually produces real value and I'm talking about the top 3 rounds. Later rounds the odds are more like 1 in 8. So all the folks who think losing a quality player to free agency is no loss at all because of the draft picks you get, really have no clue about what those draft picks produce.

[bay_area_phan]

Frankly, if I were inclined to ignore lefty-righty issues and just go for the best bat available, I'd try to bring Abreu back. He is the best hitting outfielder on the FA market save for Manny. And, even though he'd create a serious lack of balance in our lineup, I wouldn't totally slam the door on him as a possibility. It would certainly be unconventional to have 3 straight left-handers in the middle of the lineup but, if the alternative is a Jenkins/J-Mike type platoon, I'd opt for the unconventional route of 3 dynamic left-handed bats. It's certainly not ideal though.

[CJ]

clout: I agree... although even the Phils should be able to hit on one or two if they have a total of five first round picks!!

Of course, I don't see that happening. I think the Phils will re-sign both of their Type A free agents and I don't think they'll sign anyone else's.

And re: Moyer... I think getting two draft picks for him is a fairer trade than getting two for Burrell. It's not often you can flip a 46-year old pitcher with an 80 MPH heater for 2 first rounders!

[clout]

That Hardball Times article about Myers makes points that I've been talking about on here for awhile: His success is dependent on his curveball and his location. When he was going poorly he was throwing his crappier pitches at the expense of his curve. When he returned from the minors, the number of curves he threw increased dramatically.

From HT: "While Myers' fastball returned to form after his trip to Triple-A, what really made the difference for him was how he used his pitches. His slider, which doesn't have great movement, took a back seat to his curve ball, which is an excellent pitch, especially in strikeout situations."

[Andy]

It's not often you can flip a 46-year old pitcher with an 80 MPH heater for 2 first rounders!

This is exactly what I was trying to say. How many more seasons will Jamie Moyer pitch? And how many of those are likely to be as good as 2008? He could pitch well another two or three years, but the odds of that happening are kinda long. Less long, in fact, than either a first-rounder and a sandwich pick turning out to provide value.

That's it.

But I'd still try to sign him and Burrell. Better to count on the stewers you have than the eggs you want to count so badly.

[CJ]

Andy: I agree. Sign Moyer to a one-year deal. If he refuses and signs elsewhere, enjoy the two draft picks.

[ae]

I wouldn't be surprised if Moyer accepted arb. he'd probably get a very decent payday that way.

[PhilliesPhan]

clout: " [Myers'] success is dependent on his curveball and his location. "

Wow, this statement is ENTIRELY false. Brett Myers was sent to the minors to improve on the velocity and location of his FASTBALL. Before he went to the minors, he would leave his fastball right over the plate, it would get hit, and he would be afraid to use it. If what you're saying is true, then he would have had success in the beginning of the season as well as during his poor start in Florida in September, because he used all off-speed pitches, curveball included.
Myers is effective when his fastball is on the corners and he can occasionally throw in his devestating curveball. His fastball makes his curveball even better than it already is (i.e. When Myers was a closer.)

[The Truth Injection]

The whole race discussion from last thread is really kind of silly. Alby, I'm not going to dismiss your opinions because I've read some of the history and understand the past that goes into your thinking about how the Phillies treat black players. Thing is though, the past is just that. That is something we've learned in the past week with events that are far bigger than anything our Phillies front office does from now til eternity.

I find the discussion ironic considering two of the biggest stars on the team are African Americans, and are big proponents- along with the organization- of the RBI program. I find it ironic considering the team just hired a person of Latino descent to be the General Manager of the team.

Milton Bradley is a fine player but he is a player with a past that far exceeds the color of his skin. He has had run-ins with his manager, fans, teammates, and umpiries in his career. Most recently he tried to go after a broadcaster for remarks he didn't like about a comparison with him and Josh Hamilton.

Your position is that if the Phillies don't offer him a contract it is based on the color of his skin. You need to ignore a lot of other factors to jump right to that conclusion. The Phillies have a good clubhouse and good chemistry. Bradley could mess that up and I understand the Phillies being pensive about disrupting it.

Racism is something that has a ways to go yet before it dies. But pinning people in the present with sins from the past only extends the timeline before it fades away

[PhilliesPhan]

clout: Even your own quote from Hardball Times doesn't support your claim -"While Myers' fastball returned to form after his trip to Triple-A..."

Myers' fastball RETURNED TO FORM - his curveball is not effective when his fastball isn't effective, therefore, the success of Myers depends on his fastball.

Good Fastball + Good Curveball = Ideal Myers
Good Fastball + Average Curveball = Success, but not idea
Average Fastball + Best Myers Curveball = ineffective

[bay_area_phan]

You can still count me in the minority that thinks it's a bad idea to resign Moyer -- maybe even a VERY bad idea. This is essentially an odds game and here's the way I crunch the odds:

Odds of Moyer repeating his 2008 performance: 10%

Odds of his incurring a serious injury or losing it altogether: 30%

Odds of his pitching like the back-end starter he was in 2004-2007: 60%.

Odds of finding someone on the FA market or already on our own staff who can repeat Moyer's 2008 numbers: 35%.

Odds of finding (at worst) a serviceable back-end starter in the event Moyer leaves: 70%.

Obviously, I'm just plucking these odds off the top of my head & there is plenty of room for disagreement on my individual numbers. But the point behind my odds estimates is this: if we sign Moyer, there's a better than 50-50 chance we'll get the 2003-2007 version of Moyer. There's a reasonable chance that we'll get something worse than that. And there is almost no chance that we'll get something equivalent to the 2008 version of Jamie Moyer. If you're happy with Cole Hamels, an erratic Brett Myers & 3 back-end starters, then signing Moyer stands a good chance of succeeding. If you think we should strive to find a legitimate No. 2 starter, then signing Moyer effectively closes the door on that effort. Anyone who believes that Moyer is going to repeat his 2008 performance is simply letting blind optimism obscure his judgment of reality.

[dickie allen]

If Cole Hamels were black, would he be so angry that the Phillies front office would be running him out of town?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I'm with you BAP on Moyer: tread carefully with him. I love the guy, but as someone said above, getting two picks for him could end up being the scenario.

However, if you sign him, lower the expectations a bit.

[NEPP]

Can we cut out all the "FO is racist" comments? This has got to be the most ridiculous line of conversation we've had in a long time. The FO is not racist, and there's no reason to even think they are.

[NEPP]

I will be stunned if Moyer has a sub-4.00 ERA next season. STUNNED.

[Sam]

He had good peripheral numbers this season...his GB rate increased quite a bit.

Moyer adadpted, and I for one don't think this was just some fluke season.

[NEPP]

I don't think Moyer was a fluke this year. I just wouldn't put good odds on any 46 year old pitcher having another season like Moyer did this year.