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Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Comments

I think Vic needs to make Nas' "Hero" his AB music...

"hate him or love him for the same reason
can't leave it, the game needs him
plus the people need someone to believe in"

And for those who obsess over batting average (hello media) note his NLCS batting average...a mighty .188.

I know he's not hurting for it, but it would be great if a bunch of Phillies fans created a fund to pay off that ridiculous fine. If there is any money left over we can buy a few cases of Molson Ice for Stairs.

it's odd that Victorino actually has not hit particularly well this series, only 3 for 16. he's just been very good at getting hits at the right time, that's why he's got 6 RBI (i.e., only one less than the rest of the starting lineup put together - 3 Utley, 2 Burrell, 1 Howard, 1 Ruiz).

IF we make it to the World Series and Vic wins LCS MVP, we need some "Victober" t-shirts to wear.

ae: And I think I read that Vic has 11 RBI total, which leads all players in the postseason right now.

Anyone here know of any 'Phillies' bars in DC where I can watch and celebrate on Wednesday? I know Rhino Bar in Georgetown and Carpool in Arlington are big time Eagles bars but didn't know if that translated to the Phils as well.

I'm still not even sure what he did to get fined. Even Buck and McCarver were defending him last night.

Victober Fund: Where can I contribute? Could Beerleaguer set something up?

Charlie's use of Madson early in the game turned out to be huge. Shut down the Dodgers' momentum, and gave the Phillies a chance to get back into the game.

Speaking of Mad Dog, how clutch has Madson been during September/October? His domination of the 8th inning recent has been a huge help for this team. Hell, in September/October, he has an ERA of 0.64, a WHIP of 0.92, and opponents are batting .222/.232/.296 against him.

@furnstein -- I was just about to post that. 25 bucks from every beerleaguer who posted last night? That would be about right?

TK, I (also DC resident) am wondering the same thing. I've been to the Rhino bar for Eagles games before but never baseball.

I'm glad Madson is doing great now, I have always liked him and thought he had the stuff.

Don't the teams usually pay those player fines?

Madson is a beast, and he seems to be pitching with a lot of confidence right now.

@TK & AE - I live outside of G'town - Rhino is an Eagles bar - it's also a Red Sox bar (seriously, they have World Series banners in the windows and a Red Sox sign over the door), so take that as you will. They will have the game on, yes - however I've been there a handful of times during the regular season and while the Phillies game are always ON I haven't really encountered very many Phillies fans there.

It wasn't all that long ago that Madson's role was to save the closer by blowing mid-inning leads. Now he's lights out. Durbin is the new Madson.

What a topsy-turvy world.

Vic is the playoff MVP at this point. He's had a monster postseason and has been the sparkplug in every game we've won.

I was down in the Philly area for the weekend and it was great to watch the games with a bunch of Phillies fans even if I couldn't actually go to CBP. The atmosphere in Philly is electric right now.

The amazing thing to me about Victober is the basest loaded walk is the only RBI that didn't pop into my head when they throw that stat out.

Of course, we haven't had too many games with a lot of add-on forgettable runs.

a couple of things:

- i knew that stairs had that one right when the ball left broxton's hand. high fastball to stairs? come on!

- victorino is clutch.

- why do the announcers talk about post season averages? who cares? do people care when someone is hitting .500 (or .100) during the second week of april? no! because there's no sample size to make any real useful calculations.

- victorino is also crazy for bunting howard and burrell over. i know they got a run from that, but vic can hit, why take the bat from him?

- rollins and chase both played well.

- i don't think blanton pitched that badly. he got killed with that 2-2 pitch that he tried to throw way high (ruiz stood up to set it up) and he threw it in the zone, and the dodger (sorry, can't remember the name) got a couple of runs in off it. and that 3-2 pitch to manny was pretty bad. but overall he did ok, with two pivotal pitches going against him.

- the bullpen (minus durbin) was terrific. durbin is leaving everything up; scary.

- SO TAGUCHI!?

Raising the money for Victorino's fine would be a great way for Jason to promote the site. It'd probably get its own story in the Inquirer and the Daily News (they have A LOT of space to fill during the playoffs). Also, Buck and McCarver would mention it.

oh, and also.. keep walking Manny. just keep doing it. do it every time, unless the bases are loaded. and maybe even then, if you're up by 2+ runs.

Yes, but Buck and McCarver would spin it into something negative.

from the end of the last thread on charlies managing in the playoffs.

Not that I wasn't yelling at my television as well. Still it's really hard to quantify a managers effect on a game because there are a near infinite number of variables involved in the realm of "what ifs."

I like blackjack and I will play perfect strategy in that game to minimize the house edge. The thing is though there is "perfect" play in blackjack. That is however over a huge sample size and it takes a long time before the effects are felt (something most mlb players never get against certain pitchers or situations 2 for 11 is not a large sample size).
Also playing blackjack tournaments sometimes you're gonna want to split 10's. Not often and over a long period you'll get hammered on it but in a tournament where all that counts is your chip stack at the end sometimes, just sometimes, you need to split 10's.

last night the dealer was showing a face card and cholly split 10's and pulled what amounts to be a 5 card 21 on each. Or as we call it a 5-card Charlie.

So are we saying that MLB should change their slogan to "There's only one Victober?"

P.J.: THAT would make a great t-shirt!

Just chiming in. This team is going to give me a heart attack and I love it! We've been waitng 15 years for this. One win away. Great to see it. I know they've exceeded my expectations. Turning out to be a good week. Phils on the brink, Eagles win, Cowgirls, Redskins and Giants lose.

ESPN and Fox? They hate the Phils. So we're gonna stick it to them aren't we? To make matters worse for them, Boston has their hands full with the Rays and they may not make it either. How sweet would that be? And I bet the those networks and their biased announcers will be pulling for Tampa. They just don't give any Philly team credit. Well the Phils desreve all the credit they get. I tip my hat to them. Win, lose, or draw, it's been a fantastic year. GO PHJILS!!!!!

Sorry for the typo. GO PHILS!!!!

"I know he's not hurting for it, but it would be great if a bunch of Phillies fans created a fund to pay off that ridiculous fine."

That would be extremely gay.

Yards or Flying Fish should make a Victoberfest Beer in honor of Shane. It could have a hint of pineapple flavor as an homage to Flyin' Hawaiian.

Was anyone else totally surprised at how many steps Pierre has lost in his game? I was amazed that that high throw to second got him.

As for So Taguchi, that was buzzard's luck. If that drops in it's 4-3 Phillies there.

Also, let'sbe fair. I think Buck and (I cant even believe I am typing this) McCarver have been fair in their coverage.

We already have Pat the Bat. And Matt the Bat is a little too simplistic. After seeing him celebrate with Burrell, I'm dubbing him:

Fat the Bat

Long live Matt Stairs in Phillies' lore!

Taguchi will get his big hit in the WS

Forget the fine. With every playoff game, Vic's arbitration award goes up about 1/2 million dollars.

I think Buck and McCarver have been fair, but they want the Dodgers and Red Sox to win. That's simply because they see two huge baseball markets and one "compelling" storyline that Fox could overplay to the point of exhaustion.

But, if they truly want ratings, I think they should be pulling for the Phils and Rays. 95 percent of baseball fans are fed up with the Red Sox, and Dodgers fans are fickle. (Mitch Williams made a great point last night that because the series is 3-1 the game tomorrow night might not be a sellout.)

Meanwhile, you've got a championship-starved city full of ridiculously loyal fans matched up with the feel-good story of the year. Of course people are going to tune in.

Besides, TV execs often don't know what they're talking about when it comes to sports anyway. The Manny story would be played out so much that people would tune out just because they wouldn't want to hear about it anymore. The word "overkill" is absent from TV execs' vocabularies.

One more thing, ENOUGH FOX TRACKER ALREADY! It's an imperfect way to judge balls and strikes and it's really annoying.

There are plenty of temporary Phils phans up here in Boston where I'm working this week. Not a single Sox fan here wants Manny to show his face in town.

matt stairs? can't predict that one!

Posted by: jkov | Tuesday, October 14, 2008 at 11:36 AM

MG: I'd go with Stairs. There's always some obscure guy who has a great post-season. He's my pick.

Posted by: clout | Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 06:53 PM


the only problem I have with the Rays is their hideous eyesore of a baseball stadium. I've never been to Tropicana Field but I have no doubt in my mind that it's the single worst ballpark in the history of the game.

Amazing game. Amazing win. Unbelievable really. Victorino has been everything - his defense and timely hitting / walks have been huge.

I do have to say though that, even after winning the game, I'm pretty ticked off at a number of moves charlie made that seemed simply absurd. There are really too many to name - continually using Eyre against righties. Lidge 4 out save with romero doing well. Feliz pinch hitting. Batting Howard and Utley back to back. Taguchi pinch hitting. Victorino bunt, etc - and even though things worked out for the best, I have a hard time thinking that they will continue to do so. Although, at the same time, I guess they have for a season now, right? But doesn't it seem that Charlie's managing has gotten worse this post season?

Moral of the story: Amazing win. Amazing plays. Amazing team. Amazing heart. Terrible managing.

Go phils.

ae: Tropicana is indeed truly hideous. I've been there several times because it's a stones throw away from my Grandmother's house and tickets are cheap and easy to get.

It's also an incredible HF advantage b/c of all the catwalks and f-ed up turf.

BTW, worst concessions of any park I've been to--but you can usually catch the Phillies game on one of the TVs on the concourse because there are so many Phils fans in the area.

A couple quotes from this short thread and then an observation.

"victorino is also crazy for bunting howard and burrell over. i know they got a run from that, but vic can hit, why take the bat from him?"

"And for those who obsess over batting average (hello media) note his NLCS batting average...a mighty .188."

At the time that Vic came up in the 6th, he had not been hitting well in this series. There were slow runners on first and second and no one out. It was a one run game. The traditionally accepted play, with someone who can bunt, is to move the runners over so that the double play is off the table and the tying run is 90 feet away. To allow the possibility of a DP in that situation would be a questionable call.

Following that bunt with the worst offensive 3B in MLB, however, is stoopid. Even against a lefty, Dobbs should have been lft in. He has good capacity for making contact more meaningful than Feliz' typical pop-up. And all you want, really, is a decently deep fly ball or bouncy grounder.

Vic hitting away, with first and second none out? Or Dobbs hitting second and third with one out? I think the latter one has a higher percentage of getting the run home. (But I am often wrong.)


AE and Phanatic: here you go: Ventnor Cafe in Adams Morgan is an official 'Phillies' bar. The owner is apparently from Philly. I was at Buffalo Billiards for game 1 and that was a lot of fun, but this may be my go to tomorrow night...

http://www.ventnorsportscafe.com/Home.php

My Tito Landrum Google Alert just went off.

OT: sad news, Kevin Foster who pitched 2 games with the Phillies in 1993 and was later traded for Shawn Boskie http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3642624>died of cancer at the young age of 39. He compiled a 32-30 record with http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/fosteke01.shtml>4.86 ERA mostly with the Cubs.

Foster's first major league start was not quite legendary, facing former Phillie Bob Walk in Pittsburgh, the DAY after the NL East was clinched the night before. He gave up http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT199309290.shtml>8 in 4.

Now Dale, don't you know you're not allowed to criticize the manager right now? It's the gut, man, the gut. Damn your facts and accurate observations.

That being said, I'd also throw in having Eric freakin' Bruntlett caught stealing with two outs in the ninth with a chance to tack on some insurance runs...with Shane Victorino at the plate. So there were actually two outs given away for free with Shane at the plate last night.

you're welcome, Jason. how's that for synchronicity?

Just to clarify. There are no great sample sizes here, but still.

Victorino with men on 1 and 2:

.259; .289; .431;
122 plate appearances and 31 RBIs.

Dobbs with 2nd and 3rd:

.500; .500; .600;
18 PA with 14 RBI. (A ridiculously low sample size, right? But: )

Feliz with 2nd and 3rd:

.333; .432; .632
74 PA and 43 RBI.

So, really, even by putting in Feliz after bunting Vic, Chollie was choosing the much higher percentage move. By a lot. Swing Happy Feliz has a better OBP in that situation than Vic has SLG. Instead of a RBI 25% of the time, it becomes 53%.

I did not expect the percentages to be so skewed. In this one instance, Manuel was way, way better a tactician than beerleaguer.

Having Vic bunt or not is certainly up for debate. I don't agree with it, but I can definitely see it from a tactical standpoint, i.e. avoiding a double play and putting runners in scoring position. The problem, though, is you knew Charlie's thinking would inevitably lead to having him hit Feliz over Dobbs. 'Cause, you know, lefty v. lefty and all that.

Andy: The thing is, Cholly knew Dobbs was next up, he knew a a left-hander was in the game, and he knew he was going to pinch-hit with Feliz. Anyone with an IQ over 50 would have also known that, once Feliz came to the plate, Joe Torre was going to counter by removing the wild left-hander for a right-hander. So, the bottom line was that Cholly had a .293 hitter lay down a bunt to get to a .231 hitter (Feliz's average against right-handers) and a .219 hitter. And the move made even less sense when you consider that Victorino is extremely fast and was a low double-play risk.

That Howard scored on a WP was just a fluke event. It doesn't change the fact that the move was totally bizarre.

I have a question, Wednesday at 9 o'clock, the final Presidential debate will air, is this going to interfere with the baseball game?

Andy: I strongly disagree. The Feliz numbers are CAREER numbers, for one. And you have no clue how many of those hits were against lefties. Do you think career numbers against all kinds of pitching trumps Feliz's numbers THIS YEAR vs. RHP?

Here was Cholly's situation in a nutshell: If he bunts Vic then he has to hope that 1. Dobbs drives in the run vs. a LHP OR that Feliz drives in the run vs. a RHP. Did Cholly honestly think Torre wouldn't go to a RHP if he subbed Feliz? Given those 3 options who is most likely to drive in the run? The answer is Victorino. Also keep in mind that after the Dobbs/Feliz bad choice, you have Ruiz up.

So what's the rationale for bunting Vic? To keep out of the DP? Yeah, that slug Vic hits into tons of DPs doesn't he?

I agree that GENERALLY speaking the bunt is the right play but it totally depends on who the next batters are. When you have your best hitter of the next 3 hitting (given lefty/lefty righty/righty and Ruiz) then telling him to bunt is a very dumb decision.

I want to thank BAP for making my point with far greater clarity than I did:

"Cholly had a .293 hitter lay down a bunt to get to a .231 hitter (Feliz's average against right-handers) and a .219 hitter. And the move made even less sense when you consider that Victorino is extremely fast and was a low double-play risk."

RJM: unless Sarah Palin is in the crowd at the Presidential Debate and showing her boobs a la Wing Bowl or Mardi Gras, I'll pass on the debate and stick to the game.

b-a-p:
Look at the numbers for Feliz. He's gawdawful; but in that situation, well, not so much. Chollie has done dumb stuff. Vic bunting is not in that category.

@dd hahahah, I agree, but my concern is that they are going to play the debate over the game. If I remember correctly, all the major Networks (CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox) have all been airing the debates. Any insight?

rjm: Philly would riot if that happened.

A buddy of mine just said that his directtv listing says the debate is on all majors, except Fox. promising.

And hey does anyone here want to try and defend Torre for the (mis)management of his bullpen and bench in last night's game?

As much flak as we give Cholly on a typical basis (and for good reason), I believe he TOTALLY outmanaged Joe Torre - the proclaimed genius of managing - last night. Cholly bringing in Madson in the 6th was brilliant and the bullpen worked out perfectly last night. Meanwhile, Torre burned three pitchers in one inning, while also using his last (THIRD!) lefty out of the pen in the 7th, but not leaving him in for the inevitable left-handed pinch-hitter on the Phillies bench.

Any thoughts on Torre's job last night?

bap: How'd Vic's low-double-play chance help us in the first inning?

I hated seeing Feliz come to the plate in place of Dobbs... but it did continue the revolving door of relievers, right? And that sure came back to bite Torre by the 9th.

In hindsight, I hated the bunt. But had Feliz gotten his job done, we'd have gotten Howard home and Burrell to third. Then on the wild pitch, Burrell scores. Instead, Feliz does what most of us figured he would.

what b-a-p said.

Indeed, we won even though LA managed to exploit many of our vulnerabilities:

Howard's arm
Durbin's fried arm
Taguchi's existence
Cholly's mistakes

Torre's a hugely overrated manager. much like Manuel, he seems to be very good at managing personalities and big egos, but utterly unimpressive about tactics and strategy. there's nothing wrong with that (personally, I think tactics and strategy are somewhat overrated in a manager), but the idea that the Phillies were at a huge disadvantage because of Manuel vs. Torre was clearly an overstatement.

The bunt with Victorino was a dumb move. I get it if it's the 9th inning, but to me you don't play for 1 run in the 6th inning, not with Victorino batting righty, and the next hitters either Dobbs against a lefty or Feliz against a righty, and then Ruiz. It really makes no sense.

what about how the Phillies exploited LA's vulnerabilities?

Martin's disappearance at the plate
Torre's penchant for burning through relievers
the weakness of the Dodgers bench
Lowe's short leash on 3 days rest

clout:
A runner at 3rd with 1 out is easier to get in than a runner at 2nd with no outs. It no longer even requires a hit. (Which is why quoting BAs in that situation is a little bogus. Incidentally, what numbers do you want to use? Up to this point in this series Vic was batting below the Mendoza line. So that .293 doesn't hold.)

I am not claiming that Chollie was a tactical genius. It's just that runners -23 1 out is so much better for scoring runs than 12-, 0 out, that even if it's the worst hitting 3B in MLB you're in better shape. And really, -23 is one situation where Feliz does much better. (And granted the split is probably different, do you seriously believe that the Giants replaced Feliz every time he came up with a RHP and -23? How else would his RHP/LHP split make much of a difference? In 74 PAs he got 43 RBIs.)

I'm fine with saying Chollie messes up stuff. This was simply a percentage move.

Of course, since beerleaguer AND clout disagree with me, I must be wrong. So, okay.

See, now I do buy Jack's argument about the innings. Maybe you play for more than one run cause it's earlier in the game. But LA is a tough stadium and their bullpen is good. I wouldn't count on a two run homer or two to get us out of a two run deficit.

You, know. Unless I had Fat the Bat on the bench.

Diggity: I'd start with Torre's use of Derek Lowe to start the game, just so he could start him three times. I mean, really. They supposedly have such outstanding pitchers both starting and relieving; but instead of getting his ace enough rest, he chose to pitch him early, and then take him out after five IP. I think this is dumber than most (all?) of what Chollie did last night.

The two things burning LA right now....wild fires and Shane Victorino.

Andy: Think about what you are saying: Feliz has a better chance of getting a hit against a RHP than Victorino. Using esoteric stats to try to prove that won't work. Victorino is a better hitter and more likely to get a hit than Feliz vs. a RHP and Ruiz vs anybody. Period.

CJ: Victorino hit into 8 DPs in 570 ABs. What are the chances that he would've hit into 2 last night?

Not to mention that the Phillies have also been exploiting LA's lack of SP depth all series. Outside of Lowe and Kuroda, the Dodgers seemingly don't have much. Billingsly has good stuff, but he's a rookie and he's young (like Cole last year in the 'offs) and this is a huge spot for him. They don't even have a reliable 4th starter they can use. Bringing back Lowe on short rest is something they had to do, but you don't think things would be different here if they still had Penny or Schmidt.

Also, their lack of veteran BP arms also hurts them. Wade is talented, but he's a rookie and has never been here before. A lot of their relievers are similarly green. This is a tough stage for anyone let alone someone in their first full year.

I'm not sure how LOW the victorino risk of hitting into a DP is. He had already hit one that in that game and had one in Milwaukee series. And given Burrell in front reduces the need to rush or hurry a play to second making a double play MUCH MUCH more easier than if there was someone with Average speed in front of vic.

Also in comparison, for comparison sake only, Pedro Feliz has NEVER hit into a Double Play in the Post Season and vic has hit into two already this season. :)

But Andy had a good reasoning behind why Charlie bunted. However, that chain of events from the bunt to So Taguchi forced so many epitaphs, required me to leave my mom's before she kicked me out.

The best part of the sequence was forcing Torre to burn two Left Handers in that inning and forcing Wade and Broxton to pitch earlier than normal. Savvy? Perhaps. Luck? More likely.

It worked out. As Cholly has said repeatedly in the past, it's the players that make the Manager looks good. If So Taguchi's bloop falls in, maybe don't have those heroics later. But then again that's baseball.

Not sure if anyone mentioned this, but did anyone see Matt "The Bat" Stairs' postgame interview? Asked how he approached the at bat, he said he did the same thing he always does when he pinch hits: "Swing for the fences." My favorite part of the homer had to be the half a second Stairs took to watch it leave the park.

For those fans in DC, Phillies Nation is hosting a game 5 party at Capitol Lounge in DC. It's in Capitol Hill and was a blast for game 1 - we have pictures on the site.

Not sure if anyone mentioned this, but did anyone see Matt "The Bat" Stairs' postgame interview? Asked how he approached the at bat, he said he did the same thing he always does when he pinch hits: "Swing for the fences." My favorite part of the homer had to be the half a second Stairs took to watch it leave the park.

I'm trying to understand how Torre ending up with Broxton in the 8th is a dumb move, which numerous posters here have said. This is the equivalent of saying that Lidge in the 9th was a dumb move.

If you want to second-guess Torre you could ask why he brought Wade in to start the 8th instead of Broxton. But going to Broxton, despite the bad result, was the smart move.

diggity: Absolutely right. Torre was horrible... again. Who knows what crazy things he'd be doing if he were managing the Phils. Blake Dewitt hitting 6th?!?!? Really!?!?!

Has Vic struck out at all this month? In September? The guy doesn't always hit it well, but he damn near always hits it. That in itself is pretty rare on this team.

mike cunningham: By your logic Tito Landrum and Al Weis are two of the greatest players in baseball history. Check out their post-season numbers.

rjm08: It won't interfere with the game broadcast, Fox will keep it on baseball. There's only about 15 other networks that you can watch the debate on. You just have to decide which one to watch and which to record. And that answer should be watch the Phils, record the debate and watch it later if you want.

You had to use Broxton there. They needed to win that game, so Torre brought in the best pitcher he had remaining. If the other teams beats your best pitcher, than it was meant to be. Can't second guess that. It was only the first HR Broxton had given up in 2 years at home. Like I said, meant to be.

We can question moves all we want, but ultimately, you have to be able to rely on the guys on the field to do their jobs. Pulling Lowe early? Might have been stupid, but who knows if he doesn't come back out and give up 2 HRs? It's the BP's job to get outs.

clout: My Vic hitting into a DP comment was tongue in cheek. I wasn't too worried about that eventuality. I am, torn, however on the wisdom of the bunt. The problem is that Feliz didn't do his job. Who knows what would have happened had Vic been hitting instead.

And Re: Broxton

I hadn't heard of lot of people questioning Torre on that. It was that Torre lacked the left hander late. Torre made the move he had to at that point... but really only because the rest of the bullpen was empty.

It's like Manuel with Lidge. Had Madson been available, we'd have preferred him in the 8th over Lidge, right?

doubleh: Exactly right. Also, you have the off day today. Plus Broxton was used for more than 1 IP 12 times during the season, so it's nothing radical. And, he mostly WAS the setup guy in the 8th, becoming closer only after Saito went down with injury. Torre went with his best and his best got beat.

I think Torre's main managerial gaffe (besides one could argue, starting Lowe on 3 days rest), was not having Joe Beimel available late in the game in a situation to pitch to Matt Stairs, Utley, or Howard.

How someone can burn three left-handed pitchers in the first 7 innings of a game is stunning.

I think the one question you could make of Torre was using Wade in the 8th. Kid had thrown 33 pitches the night before and prob should have used Broxton for both the 8th and the 9th; but the kid has been so good for them all year, he was doing the Cholly thing and dancing with the guy who brought him as it were.

diggity: True, but the LH-heavy Phillies lineup will do that to a manager who is known for making multiple pitching changes.

Normally, having Utley and Howard hitting back to back would kill us, but Torre has largely made it easy on the Phils this series.

I think Manuel kept throwing out the worse PHers to get Torre to burn through all of them so's he could bring out his big gun when it mattered. Sometimes he is smarter than we give him credit for.

@clout -- always the a-hole. obviously that was a joke.

But doubling up VIC is Easier because Burrell was in front of him, regardless of Vic's speed.

Re: Broxton, it was the correct move by Torre given the situation and what he had left in the bullpen. But those moves were ultimately forced by Manuel burning through Torre's bullpen in the sixth. The questionable moves were in the 6th for Torre, not after.

Manny throwing team under bus as last-ditch "inspirational tactic":

http://www.redorbit.com/news/general/1587435/in_a_pinch_phillies_take_charge/

"Slugger Manny Ramirez was reminded that his Boston Red Sox rallied from a 3-1 American League Championship Series deficit in 2007, but he provided little optimism.
'That was Boston,' Ramirez said. 'That was a great team. This is different.'"

Even though the Vic bunt was designed as a sac bunt, there is a good chance he can beat it out.
And even at the game, I had to laugh having Feliz pinch hit for Dobbs.

Bunting with Vic in the 6th was foolish nad my friend and I groaned at the time that Cholly is so fascinated with taking the bat out of his better hitters' hands and needlessly SAC in some situations.

Anthony Gargano on 610 WIP just confirmed though that Cholly mentioned earlier this series that he might save Stairs for late in games because Stairs is a dead fastball hitter and Broxton mainly just throws heat.

If that is the case and the reason that Cholly burned Jenkins in the 6th instead of Stairs to save him to potentially face Broxton late, this by far is the best move Cholly made last night and actually some great managing.

Trust the Gut I guess although hard for a non-believer like me.

mike cunningham: Your views are so bizarre, it's hard to tell.

Also, I don't get this: "doubling up VIC is Easier because Burrell was in front of him, regardless of Vic's speed."

For those guys looking for a viewing party in DC, check o philliesnation.com. they have one set up at the Capitol Brewery, I believe.

If anybody knows of one in Austin TX, I sure would appreciate the info.

"So, the bottom line was that Cholly had a .293 hitter lay down a bunt to get to a .231 hitter (Feliz's average against right-handers) and a .219 hitter"

Or, So, the bottom line was that Cholly had a .188 hitter lay down a bunt to get to a .111 hitter (Feliz's average against right-handers) and a .417 hitter...

I mean, what's more important the the stats?

I don't understand what Burrell's speed has to do with Vic hitting into a double play. That makes no sense. By your logic it would actually be more difficult to throw out Vic at first if they took their good ol' time throwing to second because Burrell is slow.

clout: In other words, it's easier to get a double play with Burrell running and Vic batting than with Rollins running and Vic batting. I'm not sure by how much, but Rollins certainly has a better chance of getting to second or, at the least, disrupting the man making the turn. Of course, when Vic GIDPed in the Milwaukee series, Rollins was the runner on first.

clout - Vic always has a better chance of getting a hit than Feliz.

Please. Pay attention. A runner on third with one out can score without a hit.

(I am not pointing out that statistically, over their careers, Feliz has indeed hit better -23 than Vic has 12-. Nor do I claim that as justification. Because I do not like Feliz as a hitter.) Feliz did not need to get a hit to score that run. Victorino did need to get a hit.

AND, if Vic doesn't bunt and doesn't get a hit, look at all the possibilities. In most of them (if not all) Feliz comes up anyway, with another out, anyway. Here they are:

-23 one out, just as it was.
1-3 one out, worse.
12- one out, even worse.
--3 two outs, even worse.
(I suppose he could've hit into a triple play but it would be astoundly audacious to even count that possibility.)


And please do note, at the time that Manuel called for the bunt, Victorino was hitting far worse in this series than the .293 you're holding onto so stubbornly.

I just cannot get myself to believe that having Vic bunt there was such an obviously dumb move. In fact, as I look at everything that could have happened, it looks even more and more like a percentage move.


"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, but when you get that nice celebration coming in the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, there's no better feeling than to have that done."

- Matt Stairs

Whoa

Bunting Victorino was not the right move, and it's fortunate that that didn't have to come into stronger focus. You have better chances of scoring with Victorino swinging away with men on 1st and 2nd, 0 out, than with Feliz/Ruiz coming up off a RHP with 2nd/3rd & 1 out. You do NOT leave it up to Feliz against a RHP to get the job done, with Ruiz in the hole. That simply was not the right move. People want to talk about the fact that Victorino hasn't been hitting much in the series, but what about Feliz? Manuel picks some strange times to play it conservative. Didn't he ever hear that you don't play for the tie on the road...?

@CJ -- exactly.

Most double plays that are NOT turned, have little to do with the speed of the batter, but more to do with the speed/jump of the runner from first and the turn.

Look at the sequence in the top of the 9th. Chase on first howard at bat, chase makes take out slide disrupting the play long enough for Howard to just beat out the throw. Bruntlett was next and hit a weaker ground ball, that allowed Howard to get second quicker than usual, with Bruntlett safe at first.

If you have to rush your throw or make the turn with a sliding runner rather is easier than Burrell standing 60 feet from first ducking out of the way.

@clout -- sorry for the a-hole comment. Obviously out of line. You just missed the "emoticon" at the end of the sentence.

CJ: I agree it's easier to get the lead runner when it's Burrell rather than Rollins, but that's not what Mike said. He said it was easier to "double up Vic...regardless of Vic's speed."

I agree. My main criticism last night of Cholly was the bunt.

Why didn't Torre walk Feliz and set up ruiz for a DP?

CY: because Feliz has been an easy out in this series. Torre noticed that while Manuel ignored it. You have to have the right players to fulfill a strategy in order for the 'percentages' to apply and make that strategy worth implementing. For all this talk about Manuel's "gut", I still say he frequently shows a surprising lack of feel for situations.

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EST. 2005

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