Utley enters series lugging diminishing expectations

The player voted best overall in the National League by peers at midseason is a lifetime 4-for-26 (.154) in the playoffs and faded in the second half.

Chase Utley’s late-season deceleration borders on a pattern fans may just have to accept. Just as Ryan Howard proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he starts cold and ends hot, there’s mounting evidence that Utley, who plays harder and takes more bodily abuse than anyone, simply wears down over a 162-game season. On June 2, after a game that featured two backhanded stabs, a home run and a home-plate collision against the Reds, he stood alongside the league's best with 21 homers and 52 RBIs. He’d finish with 33 homers and 104 RBIs, hitting just two more in June, four in July and four in August, and connecting for just two in September. Visibly, his swing went from short and compact to long and loopy, with rumors swirling that he’ll require off-season surgery to repair a damaged hip.

Beginning tomorrow night with starter Derek Lowe, the red-hot Dodgers and their right-handed stable begin their assault on Utley, Howard and the meat of the Phillies' order. To believe Utley can flip the switch and reignite his power stroke, under cooler conditions and against these pitchers, may be expecting too much. It’s a job that would otherwise fall to Howard, who might have gotten too hot for his own good. The Dodgers will think twice about pitching to him at all and would prefer to take their chances with Pat Burrell (using anyone better than Jeff Suppan). At risk of stating the obvious, Utley and Howard will either produce once or twice in big bursts this series or be taken out of the equation entirely, as it happened against Milwaukee. And thus, we set ourselves up to be surprised.

Comments

[NEPP]

I don't think he wore down this year...I think he played hurt from June on. We'll find out the truth in a month or so.

[J. Weitzel]

Is it the same as wearing down? I look at stuff like getting hit with pitches, injury, running into catchers as part of the wearing down process. Nevertheless, I agree he's playing hurt with the hip injury.

[NEPP]

That's a good point. The very way he plays the game lends itself to small nagging injuries.

[Brian G]

I agree that his hip injury is exacerbating it, but Utley has said in the past(been mentioned on BL recently) that he bulks up during the winter but loses that weight during the year bc he doesn't like lifting midseason. So this may be his pattern.. Ah, the post steroids era.

[NEPP]

Yeah its weird without as much PEDs. You realize we're complaining about our 2nd Baseman who hit 30+ HRs and 100+ RBIs with a .290 avg.

Is it safe to say Chase has spoiled us a bit?

[Joel G from Los Angeles]

He does get hit by a pitch every other game and trot down to first base like it never happened. I'm sure injuries took their toll as they do with everyone over the course of a long season...

But I think the proof is in his swing. He had tremendous power from a balanced hitting approach in April and May and then he seemed to fall apart come mid-summer. I 'believe' he hurt his back somehow and just played through it. The back affects his balance at the plate...the bat speed is still there, but this is probably why he can't hit the ball out of the ballpark anymore. Only doubles in the gap. I can see it in the way he runs, too.

Bet we do hear he played through a back injury for half the year in a couple of weeks...

All speculation of course.

[NEPP]

Nah...its a hip injury (which could stem from a lower back injury too) If he had say a bulging disc that could affect his hip too.

[pblunts]

Interesting item in one of the notes columns today from Milt Thompson, who said, and I'm really paraphrasing here, something to the effect that Utley is moving around too much as the pitcher delivers.

Honestly, and I can't remember if it was game three or four-but I'm watching Utley bat and he's doing that looping motion with his bat towards the pitcher... and he's actually in the middle of it while the ball is on the way to the plate. And I said out loud, "What the hell is Utley doing?" We've all seen him bat a thousand times and you know the motion I'm talking about, but I don't ever remember him doing what really is the equivalent of a golf "waggle" so late into the delivery/pitch.

So I'm guessing Milt has talked to him about making his swing and body a little less noisy because he seems to be moving around awfully late. Go back and watch the games if you dvr'd them and you'll see what I mean.

[Gino]

pblunts: I saw that AB too. It was like he was quick-pitched or taking all the way, I wasn't sure. He's pumping like Captain Willie and the pitchers letting go of the ball.

[Iceman]

Not sure if this is already obvious enough, but hip injuries are a b*tch to deal with. In high school I played basketball and sustained a hip injury that stayed with me for quite some time- it was called a 'slipped hip.' It even affected my sleeping. I didn't get surgery right away and really played at about 50% for a few games before giving up. I eventually got surgery to get it fixed, but with all the injuries I've had playing sports, this one was by far the worst.

This probably isn't what Utley has, as it's much more prevalent in teenagers, but if he has some sort of hip injury, I have no worldly idea how he's playing through it. There's something obviously wrong- the TBS announcers rightly pointed out how he's cheating on his swing- but if it's a hip injury, I'll be convinced the guy is superman for not completely falling off the face of the earth in the second half.

[NEPP]

He's probably chewing painkillers like candy and getting cortizone shots fairly often.

[Jim J]

Since about midway thru the season, it seemed like Chase is happy to just lay the bat on the ball, hoping for good contact but with no lower-body umph to drive it out. Bad hip sounds right to me.

I remember at the end of Bobby Clarke's career the Flyers forced him to take a week or two off during mid-season to rest. Granted, Chase isn't Clarke's age now during that time but I wonder why hot-and-cold players aren't given a week off by management during a cold streak mid-season to rest up for the stretch drive. I know, I know...they get tremendous salaries and the fans would be pissed but wouldn't you want to increase the chances of winning the whole thing every season? Real, extended rest for some of these guys may be a benefit. That's why God invented the bench, minor leagues and the DL.

[pblunts]

Maybe Chase will simply pull this generation's equivalent of Kirk Gibson-without the hobble to the plate-and get some big hits that lead to a parade.

[thephaithful]

mitch williams was saying that he really has struggled with inside pitches where he usually strives. When was the last time he was hit by a pitch? He isnt staying in on the pitches like he used to.

im not the biggest fan of mitchypoo, but does have a point

[J. Weitzel]

Someone mentioned a few days ago that one of the underrated offseason priorities should be to acquire a utility infielder who could actually make a difference over a prolonged period more than someone like Bruntlett. I agree 100 percent with that.

[NEPP]

Utley HBP Splits:

1st Half: 11 in 419 PA (1 HBP every 8.55 games)
2nd Half: 16 in 288 PA (1 HBP every 4.06 games)

[Squonk1964]

Weitzel: On your post about Gillick.

Only in Philly can a man who had created playoffs and champions in every location he was in get criticized.

Sure there were blunders along the way. But "Big Market Clubs" accept this, and use their money to buy out of these mistakes.

I find the discussion about the Philles possible 7 man rotation next year--Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton, Kendrick, Happ, and Carasco--highly entertaining.

I mean, don't teams win championships based on good pitching? Looking even deeper, aren't we positioned to have 3-4 starting pitchers to burn in the coming years?

Say what you want about the bad moves, mostly free agent signings. Gillick supervised great in season moves, managed the payroll well, and got rid of great players when they needed to be gotten rid of.

The only thing missing for Mr. Gillick is a 2008 Phillies Worlds Series Ring.

GO PHILLIES!!

[vendor71]

I wouldn't worry too much. This series is going to turn on big innings and pitching. You don't need to score in 4-5 different innings. One or two multiple run innings and you get the win. The Phils could look god-awful at the plate all series long, and still have a relatively easy time, just like they did in the MIL series.

[Squonk1964]

Weitzel: The case for Utley this year isn't so much that he got "worn down," but that he couldn't perform.

Note people, please that "could not" is different than "did not."

There have been rumors about a mysterious injury (hip?) Utley has for about 2/3 of the season. Much like the rumors the Nats Ryan Zimmerman (shoulder?) has had for 2/3 of his career.

The difference is the Phillies are creating the necessay insulation to protect their star player, but the Washington press are the ones that insulate themselves from potential problems.

It's the same reporting, really, but there is more of a conspiritorial feel when you read between the lines and know who is causing the cover-up.

[Squonk1964]

Iceman: Hips are awful, especially when you are old. Agreed, it is a terrible geriatric disease.

What is even more devestating (sp?) especially among young baseball players is torn rotor cuffs.

[Ira]

a nice little article about 10 things you might not know about the Phils http://www.thegoodphight.com/2008/10/8/630847/ten-things-you-might-not-k

[Squonk1964]

Ira: You don't have to tell me to be a Phan. I'm there, and was there. Anyone remember "The Stone Age?" If not, google Jeff Stone, and you will quickly understand how Steve Jeltz has nothing over Jeff Stone.

[Bonehead]

Ah yes, Jeff Stone.
When he came up, Mike Schmidt declared him a future batting champion. That was the same prognostication where Schmitty declared Juan Samuel a future MVP.

Mike was always much better at playing baseball than talking baseball, God love him.

[RSB]

I saw that comment from Thompson about Utley not appearing ready, but that's way he's *always* hit. That's nothing new. It is apparent he wears down as the season goes on, and maybe the hip is a factor - these would explain the loss of power - but to me the problem has a lot to do with his general hitting approach. All the early homers got him pull-happy and overly power conscious, and seldom did you see him use the whole field for any extended period this season. That's the biggest reason why his average was down. In the playoffs, all he kept doing was rolling over on the ball and hitting grounders to second. There's no reason why he should be so predictable a hitter that teams would actually employ a shift on him. He didn't use to have that problem.

[Steve Jeltz]

"Ira: You don't have to tell me to be a Phan. I'm there, and was there. Anyone remember "The Stone Age?" If not, google Jeff Stone, and you will quickly understand how Steve Jeltz has nothing over Jeff Stone."

WTF?

I am the greatest player ever born in France. Screw you guys.

[vendor71]

I just gleaned this from a dodgers blog i was taking a look-see at:

http://6-4-2.blogspot.com/

Anyone else heard that Saito may be dropped from the roster?

[Bryan]

Idiot Simers at it again.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-simers9-2008oct09,1,5516438.column

Why provide the bulletin board material? I wouldn't be too happy if I was a dodger.

[Squonk1964]

Jeff Stone was stupider that catfish on the BBQ. Every time I read something from the Sabermetric guys, I keep thinking about Jeff Stone. Stone was a great, five tool athlete, who was simply stupider that concrete.

I mean, the difference between Stone and concrete is concrete knows when to harden.

[Squonk1964]

Thank you, Bryan. Editorial out to the LA Times and everyone else who might listen.

[RSB]

Stone was no 'five-tool' athlete. His only above-average skill was speed.

[J.R. King]

I think the Brewers pitchers (Gagne in particular) purposely varied their delivery to throw off Chase's timing.

[Craig P]

Take it from me, a Dodger fan, nobody I know takes Simers seriously at all. He's a complete nincompoop, and it's sad for a paper which has a legacy of great sportswriters in the past, like Jim Murray, etc, and I've heard he is not well-respected among people in the Dodger organization. His articles do however make fine bird cage lining.

For better reading, though, Jon Weisman on the Dodger Thoughts blog has a good, fair breakdown of the Dodgers, including question marks and so on.

http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/1155251.html

Buena suerte.

[MG]

Only on Beerleaguer would a thread generate several comments about Jeff Stone during a playoff run. Think we have officially run of out things to rehash.

Bring on the Dodgers!

BTY - Completely agree with RSB. Jeff Stone was no "five-tool" athlete. Maybe a "tool and half" at most because of his passable defense.

[GM-Carson]

Simply put- we NEED Chase Utley to be .300 batting average with some pop Chase Utley to make it to the World Series.

[Bob]

I think that Chase is playing through some form of injury that has probably been vetted by the doctors to the extent that they are comfortable that is is an acceptable risk for him to continue to play.

At 60% or whatever he is playing at, he is still probably far better than anyone they could replace him with, and there is always the possibility that he could go on a rampage over a playoff series.

It's a tough spot for him to be in (and not fun for the fans either), but the bottom line is we need to keep the "diminished expectations". In other words, expect the worst, hope for the best.

My guess is there will be an interesting "back story" in the off season, and we may find out that he has been gutting it out while hurt for quite a while.

[AWH the RBP]

Interesting factoid from the LA Times link on the right about the Phillies/Dodgers matchups:

"Charlie Manuel has never managed a losing team over a full season..."

[phargo]

Good Morning!

It's finally today!

Carson, I have to disagree. I think the Phillies can get it done with the current Chase, just as they did against Milwaukee. His performance doesn't seem to steer the team the way the performance of Jimmy Rollins, for example, does.

That said, I do hope the best Chase shows up, 'cause it sure wouldn't hurt.

Now I just have to make it to 7:22 pm! Nice thing about being in the Central time zone.

Go Go Go Phils!

[Edmundo]

"At 60% or whatever he is playing at, he is still probably far better than anyone they could replace him with, and there is always the possibility that he could go on a rampage over a playoff series."

If he is hurt and that is hurting him power-wise, then he should bat second, with Werth third. Utley still gives you good OBP and baserunning plus that makes the late game LOOGY decisions that much tougher. Either Utley would see more righties or Werth more lefties.

[Ribbies]

I agree with batting Utley third. I've seen many places saying that the Dodgers righty heavy rotation is an advantage for the Phils, but I'd almost prefer more lefties which would be good for Werth and Burrell and even help Feliz and Ruiz. I think the days of Utley crushing righties is over (for this season) and I'm afraid Werth and Burrell will revert to looking helpless, although Werth did seem to be turning it around.

[Bubba]

USA Today has a front page article on their site about Cole Hamels.
Unusual for a national publication to write anything about the Phillies that isn't trashing the town & team.

[Lion's Pride]

Along the lines of this whole utley getting worn down phase. I feel it would be beneficial to the team if we could send Jason Donald to winter ball and have him take reps at secondbase and thirdbase, and have him become the utility man next season to rest utley and maybe give some extra offensive production at third base. He could become extremely important in the interleague phase allowing utley or howard to dh (utley can play first). This I think is the most reasonable and cost efficient solution. But that topic is for another day lets go PHILS!!!!

[Kieren]

Admittedly anecdotal, but I have the distinct memory that early in the season, when Utley was hot, he would pretend that balls that nicked him did not do so, to give him another swing, but now it seems that if the ball's wake ripples his jersey he looks back to the ump for a HBP call. Not that he's dogging it, but maybe thinks that's the way to maximize his contribution, given his current condition. Getting on base, not knocking others in.