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Sunday, October 19, 2008


So should do the honorable thing and injure himself taking the decision out of chollys hands.

I don't think there's a huge risk in using Coste as the dh against LHP, even w/o Marson on the roster. In the extremely unlikely event that Ruiz got hurt, you'd lose the dh, but Coste could still catch.

The Marson-Taguchi switch really ought to happen. But Charlie doesn't usually go with rookies over proven guys.

By the way, baseball needs to stop with all of these off days in the playoffs. The World Series is taking WAAYYY too long to get here!

Maybe this has been explained elsewhere and I missed it? But what has happened to Chris Coste? Shouldn't someone with an .880 OPS against LHP be valuable in the post season? Why has he been banished?

(Also, you have a typo in the Dobbs sentence.)

I noted on the previous thread a few of you getting ticked at some posting by Met fans.

I wouldn't get too upset.

Just take a gander over at Metsblog. The latest article is an Arizona Fall League update. Also, they're plugging Santana for Cy, and

If either Tampa Bay or Boston could set their rotations how they liked, I would rather play the young and inexperienced Tampa Bay. But if you look at how the rotations will work in the World Series (with the ALCS going 7 games), I would much rather face Boston, especially when you add in the David Ortiz factor, who will either have to pinch-hit for the three Philly games or play first base (which I don’t see happening).

Let’s note right now that there are only two off days for the World Series, between games 2 and 3, and between games 6 and 7.

Here’s how the pitching will most likely matchup in the World Series, first against Boston:

Game 1- Hamels vs. Dice-K
Game 2 - Myers vs. Beckett
Game 3 - Moyer/Blanton vs. Lester
Game 4 - Blanton/Moyer vs. Wakefield/Byrd/Dice-K (on short rest)
Game 5- Hamels vs. Dice-K or Wakefield/Byrd
Game 6 - Myers vs. Beckett or Lester (on short rest)
Game 7- Moyer/Blanton (maybe a few innings of Hamels) vs. Lester/Beckett

The bottom line here is that Boston’s best pitcher, Lester, pitches twice at the most, and not until Game 3. Beckett and Dice-K, even if they give good outings, will likely not pitch more than five innings each outing, meaning the Phils will get to tee off against the weak Boston middle relievers on many occasions.
Looking at the matchups, the Phils should be heavily favored for Games 1,2,and 5, and favored for game 4. Boston would be heavily favored for the two Lester starts, and the other game should be a push as far as the advantage.

I should also note that I like Blanton a lot more than Moyer against the experienced Boston lineup, and if either gets two starts, it should be Blanton (with Hamels giving us everything he can in game 7 if it goes to that).

Now, against Tampa Bay, here are the likely matchups:

Game 1 - Hamels vs. Kazmir
Game 2 - Myers vs. Shields
Game 3 - Moyer vs. Garza
Game 4 - Blanton vs. Sonnanstine
Game 5 - Hamels vs. Kazmir
Game 6 - Myers vs. Shields
Game 7 - Moyer (plus Hamels) vs. Garza

I’m assuming Moyer goes 3 and 7 as he matches up better against young lineups (I see a lot of similarities between the Rays and Marlins, who Moyer has mastered).

Simply put, the Rays’ top three are better than the Red Sox’ top three, and the Rays top 4 are much better than the Sox’ top four. Sonnanstine has been the Rays’ best starter in the playoffs.

Against the Rays projected rotation, I can only easily favor the Phillies in Hamels’ two starts. Other than that, I think the Rays match up at least evenly in the other games, and would give them a definite advantage in game 4. I could easily see Shields outpitching Myers in both games.

So, lets bring on the Sox!

[damn fingers]

buzzing about the Nats making Willie Randolph inquiries. Oh, and Cerrone did a "very exciting" self-indulgent last tour of Shea Stadium.

Pretty exciting stuff, no?

In the meantime we get to discuss our Phillies being in the WORLD SERIES!

Who would you rather be, them or us?

They're sitting at home watching someone else's team in the WS, just like they did in 2006 when they had that supposedly unbeatable juggernaut.

They found out that season and the last two that what they really have to cheer for is just "naught".

So........cut Mets fans some slack.

Our beer tastes much better right now.

Jason - Good summary...until we know the opponent, you touched on all of the discussion points.

If Cholly would do it, what a lineup we could put together against RHP, with Dobbs at 3B and Stairs at DH.

There is a video up on with reporters interviewing Charlie, he was asked who he would like to play in the World Series. He said that Tampa Bay is a good young team, but he always dreamed of taking down the "nation." Me too.

Red Sox or Rays? Meh.
(Although on March 31 I picked the Rays as the team other than the Phillies I wanted to watch.)

DH - So is not the answer. But Now that Werth is an everyday player, he's going to be. It would be nice to get Marson there, but even if So was taken off the roster I have a feeling Manuel would opt for Cervenak anyway. More experience. Not much more, but more.

It's kind of a shame that Golson is not the hero some think he is. Even Corey Patterson ability would be an improvement over So "So I shoulda retired already" Taguchi

Andy: If So is the answer, What is the question?

bonehead: From last thread, yes Bob Boone was among the best defensive catchers in the NL in 1980. I should've mentioned him.

Note to mike cunningham: Look up what OPS means. It's a useful tool for someone who claims to be a baseball fan.

Personally I'd rather face the Rays in the Series -- not because of the matchup on the field, but because the Red Sox Nation is likely to invade CBP the same way the Mets fans do, thus tempering the home field boost to some degree. I'd expect to see far fewer Rays fans making the trek to Philadelphia -- and far more Phillies fans in the stands at Tropicana than at Fenway.

I was so pissed off last night when I tuned into TBS, expecting to see a few episodes of the Steve Harvey show, and instead I ended up watching a meaningless game 6 ALCS between Boston and Tampa Bay. I mean, where does TBS get off??

I also decided to analyze some of Dice-K's numbers. Being that I was up in Boston most of the last few years, I was able to see almost every Red Sox game over that time (including virtually ever Dice-K start.)

I looked at what his numbers are against teams which he's never faced before, as well as in interleague games. In his career, he has pitched 126 2/3 innings against teams in which he is facing them for the first time.

In those innings, he has given up 38 earned runs for a combined ERA of 2.70. Additionally, in all of his interleague matchups he has a career 2.85 ERA (and that includes one start where he gave up 7 runs in 1 inning).

The bottom line is that for whatever reason - maybe it's his windup, his stuff, or his mystique, he is virtually unhittable in his first start when facing a new team. That's not to say I don't think the Phils can hit him, but I'm a little fearful at the prospect of facing him in a potential game 1, followed by Beckett (pristine post-season history) and Lester (incredible young, hard-throwing lefty).

I say Go Rays tonight

Re Mets trolls, I don't like the fingers in our eyes either, but I'm a longtime Phils fan who probably reads more Mets message boards and blogs than Phils' when we're beating them (a venial sin, gloating). I do not post to the Mets boards/blogs, and generally feed my blood-lust by listening to their agonizing screams and moans. But I note for the record that for every one of the NY invaders, there is a drunken, a-holish Phillies troll who ventures north and dumps in their (depending on whether they're celebrating or crying that night) punchbowl or beer.

In the immortal words of Ric Flair:

TO BE THE have to BEAT the man! Woo!

I say bring on the Sox, the defending champs, and prove we ARE the team to beat in '08.

Plus...come on...playing playoff baseball in Fenway or playing in a dome with 10,000 people?

It wouldn't be Beerleaguer without at least one typo in the header. I'm the Chris Coste of bloggers at this point in the season.

I think I'd be perfectly happy with seeing the sox lose tonight, rather than subject them to a revenge of losing in the world series.

I don't know why Met fans are crying about "You Gotta Believe" now, when Phillies fans have been using that slogan since the late 70's. It was very prevalent during the 1980 postseason run. Where have they been? Most of those complaining aren't even old enough to remember Tugger playing for the Mets...

Man, I loved Tug McGraw. He was my absolute favorite Phillie on the 1980 team and still my fave Phillie to this day. I loved how he named his pitches. The "Frank Sinatra" ball. "Bo Derek." The "Peggy Lee". He was a funny guy and a joy to watch. He could give you agita watching him close out a game, too.

It baffles me that people mention that fact that Taguchi "almost got a key base hit" against the Dodgers. Never mind the fact that he pulled a kind of fluky check swing on a first-pitch fastball at that AB or that he has been hitless in his 4 ABs in the post season so far.

You would think the 6 months of woeful PH would have shown Cholly that Taguchi is completely washed up and overmatched against just about every pitcher. Of course Cholly will go with the veteran over Marson either though I would rather see Marson up there right now than Taguchi.

doubleh - Yeah I saw that dumb article about Mets' fans being aggravated by the Phils using "You Gotta Believe" slogan again this year. One, it is lame even for a generic sports slogan. Two, Mets' fans have to bitch about something to fill up their inferiority complex. In this rare case, it is about the Phils but usually it is directed at the Yanks.

X's and O's aside, I'd like, as Charlie apparently would, to beat the Sox more than the Rays.

But I can't help feeling like we'd stand a better chance against a naive, fun-loving young Rays team who has its whole baseball life ahead of it and felt lucky to even make the series, rather than a hulking reanimated corpse who, having bled out on the field, then took a direct lightning bolt to the heart, pulled on its hockey mask, grabbed its machete, and climbed out of its grave.

Best offseason move this year so far - Mets renewing Minaya for another 4 years. Here is hoping he pours a boatload of money into resigning Perez (say a 4 yr deal to the tune of $50-$55M) and overpays for a few suspect bullpen arms.

If Beckett were healthy and effective, I wouldn't want to face the Sox. He isn't and was incredibly fortunate to give up only 2 runs last night by throwing largely slop up there mixed in with an average fastball around 90 MPH. Plus, the Sox don't have a 4th starter right now. Wakefield is pitching hurt and has gotten pounded and I would love the Phils to face ex-Phils Paul Byrd in a Game 4 matchup.

Sox have the experience but the Rays have the better and deeper pitching right now.

MG: Yeah, I know--why don't they spend their time b*tching about why Minaya got an extension after the bangup job he's done the last few years at fixing up their problem bullpen and OF issues?

Don't focus on the real issues; just complain about how the Phillies got "lucky" to get to the WS and how some fans still use an old slogan that probably should be retired all together.

As for the game tonight, who thinks the Rays are toast? Damn, did they lay down and die or what?

About Charlie's comments on facing the Red Sox, I definitely agree. Not to take anything away from the teams I'm about to mention, but if we beat Tampa, our only two WS titles would be against the Rays and Royals. Besides, Boston is vulnerable, and we have every much a shot of beating them as we have beating the Rays. I'm pulling for the Bosox.

X factor is the Phils face the Sox is Lester. Lester has the stuff and ability to really stymie the Phils lineup unless Werth and Machine would be able to do something against him.

Disagree with Cholly's decision to start Myers in game 2. Myers' road splits are terrible. Also, in must win, home games(3 and 4) we will be starting Jaime Moyer and Joe Blanton against (Becket & Lester) or (Kazmir & Shields).

Tug McGraw's names for his pitches:

Peggy Lee="Is that all there is?"

Bo Derek="Has a little tail on it"

Cutty Sark="It sails"

Titanic="It sinks"

I had to google the Frank Sinatra reference above...."Fly Me to the Moon"

Don't know if the Mets own those phrases too.

Laramie: You are 100% right about that. Red Sox fans will pay ungodly sums on StubHub and either make the 5 hour drive or take a 1 hour flight and invade CBP in droves. In fact, I could see it getting really ugly between the Red Sox and Phillies fans. Boston vs. Philly is a much more natural rivalry than Tampa Bay vs. Philly. Look for Red Sox fans to drive up ticket prices to unreasonable levels as they will spend whatever it takes. Meanwhile, we can expect a handful of fans if we play the Rays.

I like the Marson for Taguchi move too. Taguchi couldn't even get a bunt down when he needed to. I realize he has experience, but the idea of him seeing any ABs is scary. We need Coste at DH against lefties and Marson gives us a backup for Ruiz. Taguchi adds nothing at this point.

As far as who I would rather see play the Phillies, I can't decide. The Rays are flooded with talent and I can see Longoria and Upton, if he continues at this rate, hitting 4-5 home runs. The Red Sox look much more vulnerable but they just KNOW HOW TO WIN. I mean everytime you think they are done they rebound and even if you are up 10-0 and lead the series 3-0 the series isn't over until that final out if made. On paper without that intangible, I'd rather face with the Red Sox.

Don't forget a much stronger Red Sox team looked bad against Hamels in June and we have a whole new Myers this time around. They have Dice-K and his big 5 innings per start, Beckett who isn't 100%, Lester who is tired and Wakefield who is throwing batting practice and no middle relief.

Plus Cholly is right, it would mean a lot more to take down the nation.

I'm not sure who I'd rather face right now, but I'm liking our chances after watching how this series play out.

The Sox starting pitching is really shaky, especially Beckett and Wakefield. And their lineup is stumbling into runs right now, benefiting off Tampa Bay errors and my next point...

Tampa Bay's bullpen looks gassed. They looked lights out earlier this series but have started to come unglued. The closing by committee seems to be hurting them and I doubt that will change if they make it to the WS.

That said, I like that the Sox have to force Papi on the field if they want his bat in the lineup.

Also, for all the FO-bashing that was going on in July/August, here's an interesting article from Stark about Gillick's recent moves.

Great points about Moyer and Romero.

I just don't see the Rays taking this Game Seven tonight. Their inexperience will show up and they will be destroyed.

Who gives a flying &$@! "who it would mean more to take down"??

I could care less who we beat, all that matters is that we get that championship. It was the same thing in Boston in 2004 - that year they defeated Anaheim and were going to face either the Yanks or Twins for a World Series berth. Half the people in Boston represented the idiotic viewpoint where they "didn't want to win their first world series in 86 years without playing the Yankees on their way" while the more logical and pragmatic half of Boston said "who gives a sh!t who we play - the bottom line is that we win!"

Saying you'd rather play Boston than Tampa "just to take down the nation" has a nice idealistic ring to it, but I think you have all of your priorities backwards if that's the most important issue.

Diggitydave: Yes, winning a championship is the first priority and it is what truly counts. It doesn't matter who it is against. BUT, you have to admit that toppling the almighty Red Sox would be the frosting on the cake as opposed to going to that mall like building in Tampa and beating the young, inexperienced, upstart Rays.

If the Rays beat the Red Sox and we beat the Rays, then who needs frosting on that cake? If we think the Red Sox are the best in baseball and the Rays take them out, then obviously there's no shame in beating that team.

Screw "Ya Gotta Believe"... who needs it. We've got:

Why Can't Us?

A righty DH is a problem. I cringe at the thought of Coste hitting a grounder to the left side of the infield, especially a tailor-made DP. It usually happens that way (with Feliz, too). Working the count is imperative.

@clout -- typical.

These announcers put Timmy and Buck to shame.

I love the idea of adding Marson instead of Taguchi. Having Coste DH against a lefty is a far cry better than Bruntlett or Taguchi. Hell, if need be, Marson and his very little MLB exposure is probably a better pinch hit option too...Taguchi sucks!

Agreed Taguchi sucks, and I would replace him with Marson. However, the Phillies have shown a reluctance to get rid of Taguchi all year long for some reason, so I don't think they'll change now.

Taguchi has 32 post season ABs, including 15 in two different WS appearances. I imagine that will give him the edge over Marson despite the fact that Taguchi's best days (and even average days) are clearly behind him.

How could you not want a Phils-Sox World Series? That's a baseball match. Philadelphia-Boston. Think Sixers-Celtics. That's east coast hardball. Fenway Park. 1915. You would rather see the Phillies, in this rare World Series appearance, play a team that plays on NexTurf and whose fans wave cowbells? No, no, no.

RSB, I'm with you, and barring a big surprise, that's exactly what's going to happen.

I'd rather that we face a team that I think we could beat than one that would make for a more traditionally pleasing matchup.

Personally, since we finally got here, I just want to win. And I think Tampa gives us the best chance of winning. With that said, if I KNEW we were going to win, and it was 100% guarenteed, I would rather play the Sox because of their history and all of the other storylines.

You'll also have to forgive me if I pass on the accolades for Chip "Track, Wall" Caray. Admit it, the only reason you like him is because he's not Joe Buck.

RSB, what announcers do you like? We know you don't like Scully, Wheeler, Buck, Caray, the (great) radio guy we used to have...

Tampa Bay and Boston seem pretty evenly matched. I can't see why anyone would say that one opponent is superior to the other.

I don't know if anyone's a straigh cash homey one, but here's an instant classic.

I don't want the spotlight. I want to be inundated with "Sox Rule," "Phils can't win outside the bandbox." I want Simmons and Gammons and all those other blowholes writing there is no chance. I want Stark to pick the BoSox just to show he isn't biased. I want to be dogs. Big dogs, dogs in a cage, house dogs, street dogs, nasty dogs, atomic dogs.

bow wow wow yippie yo yippie yeah!

Tray: I don't have a problem with Wheeler, and Buck doesn't bother me that much. Jon Miller is decent. I like Kalas and Franzke. I like Charlie Steiner, Dave Niehaus in Seattle, Lanny Frattere in Pittsburgh, Milo Hamilton in Houston, Joe Castiglione in Boston. Since you asked.

You all know, by the way, that Charlie would've asked Baldelli to bunt, right? I guess it's too late in the season to change managers.

I think our pitching matches up better against the Rays. Specifically, I like Moyer's chances against their young lineup far more than the veteran Red Sox (most of whom have seen a lot of him).

But I think the Rays pitching matches up better for them than the BoSox arms at the moment. Specifically they can run out quality lefties in the 6th/7th/8th like Price and Howell that could present problems for Utley and Howard. Of course, they don't have a Papelbon at the end though.

There's pluses and minuses to each matchup. But overall I'd say the Phils have a slightly better chance against the Rays because of their youth and lacking the "been there, done that" confidence intangible the Sox have.

RSB: I'll never understand how Buck "doesn't bother you much" but Scully drives you up a wall. At least Scully has a reason to be pompous and self-important....Buck has got to where he is because his dad was good at his job.

I do agree that Jon Miller would be fine without Morgan (and he could also drop the over-pronunciation of Spanish names). I've always liked Steiner as well.

My favorite analsyts/color guys include Hershiser, Harold Reynolds, and Tony Gwynn (on the rare occasion he does a game nowadays).

To each his own, though.

Jon Miller finishes every sentence with a high pitched, I'm-asking-a-question intonation. It drives me up a wall.

Tray: This Maddon guy seems interesting. They said the Rays finished dead last in sacrifice bunts. In other words he, like Earl Weaver, believes an out is the most valuable thing in a baseball game and you never give one away. Also, notice his lineup tonight: L-R-L-R-L-S-S-R-R, alternating. He may be the Anti-Charlie.

Yeah, he'd definitely be the better manager in the matchup. On the other hand, he does occasionally leave his relievers in too long.

Like right here for instance. You probably shouldn't ask a guy throwing his 113th pitch to get the biggest out of the game.

Jeltz: Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Buck isn't constantly talking and doesn't spend 95% of the game reading directly out of the media guide.

Then again, maybe Maddon looked up Garza's B-Ref splits and saw that hitters hit just .125 off of him after 100 pitches this season.

For the games I have watched this year, Madden is a better manager than Cholly. Yeah he plays some odd hunches every now and then (especially in Game 5) but my bet is that Cholly gets exposed at least once in a big way if the Phils do indeed play the Rays.

Maybe, but Buck spends that time discussing "storylines" and fawning over Manny while generally ignoring the game going on on the field.

Instead of trading on the market (which is nuts), I decided to play the Rays tonight. About to collect a nice wager.

Tray: Well he was pitching a 2-hitter with 9 Ks, so a case could be made.

the phils will have their hands full with either the red sox or rays. that said, beckett is pitching hurt, dice-k is hard to score off of, but is hardly the model of efficiency, and lester has been hit or miss this postseason. and as we said, the bullpen has not been all that good (although this could be because these AL east teams are so familiar with each others' bullpens by this point). on the other hand, shields, kazmir and garza have all been dealing and their bullpen has high heat from both the left and right sides although they don't have a "closer".

they're both dangerous teams but at this point, i'd rather the phillies play the red sox although i don't like the idea of RSN invading CBP; more than a few fights would break out for sure - it'll more than suffice as revenge of the superbowl victory over the Iggles a few years ago.

Kalas is better than Scully or Buck. Dying breed of announcers who don't constantly yammer and ridiculously over-hype events like HRs. The thing I loved most about Kalas and Ashburn was the periods of silence during the game if they were warranted and it was kind of in a lull. Today almost 95% of announcers try to fill this dead time.

Remembering listening to game tapes several years back with Kalas and Ashburn and the amount of space in their words is amazing. One of the reasons I think Kalas always despised Wheeler is because he feels he always has to squawk about every minor point to demonstrate his baseball knowledge. You can tell it grinds at Kalas to this day. Plus, the cute sayings. One thing I loved about Ashburn was that he just called the game. No ridiculous Wheelerisms or other over-the-top, cute sayings.

MG: I didn't know how great I had it as a kid with Kalas/Ashburn. Just assumed all announcers were like them. Harry's not what he was but I'd still listen to him over anyone else if I had a choice.

Bold move to stick with Garza at 116 pitches to start the inning.

Yeah, Bob, but I think Myers and Moyer would be destroyed by hitters like Youkilis, Bay, Drew, Pedroia. These are patient, smart hitters who don't strike out much, and they all have power. Guys like Pena, Longoria, and even Upton, as hot as he's been, can be handled.

Boston might be a gritty team that knows how to win, but they aren't nearly as talented as Tampa at this stage of the game. Ortiz looks like he's washed up and their starting pitching doesn't appear the least bit daunting. I didn't just want the Phillies to face the Sox because I prefer their ballpark.

That error by Bartlett was brutal. Sox needed some help to open the door and that just might have been it.

I hate to say it but I don't have much confidence in Moyer at this point against either the Rays or Sox. You just have to hope that he can keep the Phils in Game 3.

Ortiz of two-three years ago comes through here. My bet is that Lowell buries him and the Sox chances.

Will Howell bury Youkilis as well?

That is a different story. Sox need a hit from Ortiz here though.

Terrible slide....they could have had the bases juiced.

Bradford vs. Youk? I like the submariner against the Greek God of Walks.

Morgan sagely commentary: You can't get behind like Wheeler did. You need to throw strikes.

If you want to crucify an announcer for his lazy preparation or useless commentary, Morgan is your man.

Cholly would totally have Bruntlett out there running for Papi.

I just donot want REDSox NATION in my house...

Nah, Charlie would regard Ortiz as a star, and as such, he'd never pinch-hit or run for him. Just like Howard.

The Greek God of Walks comes through.

A rookie (very talented but still a rookie) vs Drew with no margin for error? Big Trouble in St. Pete for the Rays.

Our old buddy JD was the one who was overmatched there.

This statistically minded manager has solid Gut instincts too.

Wow. That is why I am worried about the Rays bullpen. They have three very capable lefties who can shutdown Utley/Howard and negate Dobbs and Stairs off the bench. Lack of a right-handed bat off the bench might be the one move that Gillick didn't make that lingers bigtime in the World Series.

That was a Gut call. I bet most managers would have gone with the vet (Miller) there instead of Price.

MG: Yet another reason to dump So for Marson (freeing up Coste to PH/DH).

Talent > Veteran-ness as Price just showed.

In my opinion, if the Phillies got through Kuo, Kershaw, and Biemel - they can definitely get through Howell, Miller, and Price. The Dodgers bullpen was harder in my opinion.

Jeltz - Agreed. If Taguchi had shown that he would bring something to the table even as a defensive replacement/PR I could see him bringing some value. Taguchi's defense at this point has been so discounted by Cholly though that he uses a utility INF (Bruntlett) as a defensive substitution over Taguchi. That should speak volumes to you.

BTY - Been emailing one of my dad friend's who used to be a scout for the O's. Asked what he thought of Taguchi. Said "overmatched" and you don't even need a realgame plan to attack him. Completely overmatched by decent power pitchers at this point and is dead if he gets behind in the count.

PhilliesPhan - That is a valid point but I am also willing that Madden won't misuse his bullpen as badly as Torre did. Madden is just a better tactical manager than Cholly and I bet Cholly gets exposed once in a big way in a crucial spot by Madden.

I'm betting twice, MG. And this is just an obscenely gutsy decision.

Tek is completely overmatched here. I would just pour the gas on here and strike him out.

Chagneup here 2-2 and get the K.

1 out away from the way I wanted this ALCS to end with the Rays in 7 - here's hoping I was rooting for the right thing all along!

Tray: it's gutsy, but Price is really, really good. Like one of the best pitchers in MLB within 2 years kind of good.

The thought of him coming in to face Utley/Howard late in a game absolutely scares the bejeezus out of me.

Slider but the same result. Lowrie has no shot here.

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EST. 2005

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