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Saturday, October 25, 2008

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Hofmann in today's DN suggests something many of us have been begging for, that Cholly ought to split the lefties. Cholly says he's thinking about it.

Regarding Price and whether he should've been pulled: Keep in mind he's been a starter his entire career. Going 2 or 3 innings is nothing for him. Given his stuff and the fact the Rays have no closer with Percival out, I wouldn't be surprised to see Maddon try him for a 2 or 3 inning save just like closers used to get in the old days.

That they would bump all the games because of a rainout tonight is ridiculous. Why can't they ask Game 3 ticket holders - in case of a rainout - to go to a re-scheduled Game 5 on Tuesday? That way ticket-holders for Sunday's and Monday's game are not also inconvenienced. I can't see how or why they would shift three sell-out crowds rather than just one . . .

Disturbing news from Yahoo Insider Edge. I had assumed (like others I think) that Moyer could have Marlins-like success against the young Rays. Yahoo doesn't seem to think so: "The Dodgers roughed up Jamie Moyer for six runs in 1.1 innings in his last start. He made some quality pitches but ran into one of the best clubs in the league at hitting soft-tossing southpaws. Unfortunately for Moyer, the Rays are even better. Tampa Bay hit .310 and slugged .467 against similar pitchers this year. Carl Crawford and Ben Zobrist could be particularly challenging for Moyer; both are hitting over .400 versus lefties who serve up fastballs under 87 mph."

Apologies for the OT question, but does anyone know what the Phils lots (where the Vet once stood) are charging for World Series parking? The usual $11, or more? I've got a ticket to Game 4 -- whenever it happens to happen -- & the Phils website is not especially helpful. Thanks!

I also have to say that looking at the numbers I'm not that impressed by Garza. I did not see any of the ALCS when evidently Garza became a household name, but his numbers on the road aren't so hot and the Phils (back when they could hit) would usually handle a right-handed fireballer. I hope Dobbs gets a chance to redeem himself at some point against this guy, but I know there's no way he gets the start.

I agree that they would inconvenience everyone by bumping all of the games back, but why in the world would someone holding a game three ticket want to wait for a game five, which might not even happen? The chance is remote, but it is still possible.

@chris: well, tickets are just for "game X" not for a particular day, so it does make sense, inconvenient as it may be for some fans.

how quick of a trigger do you think they'll have for postponing a game? you have to figure that tv ratings would just die for a game between east coast teams if it won't start until 10pm or something. makes me think they'd almost prefer a rainout to anything more than a short delay.

Uhm, the series is tied 1-1. Of course game 5 is going to happen.

Ribbies: Garza strikes me as the Rays' version of Brett Myers: capable of brilliance but woefully inconsistent. In Game 7 of the ALCS, he looked virtually unhittable. But if he pitched that way all the time, he would obviously have much better numbers.

If he's on his game tonight, it will make for a very unpleasant viewing experience for Phillies fans.

Mike - game 5 is definitely happening one way or another.

Ribbies - I'm also worried about Moyer; hopefully Moyer can induce a lot of groundballs on a soaked/slowed down infield.

I think parking is $20, G-Town Dave.

I passed along the Yahoo info because I thought it was interesting, but I'm actually not that worried about Moyer. Maybe its because I'm a sucker for (Phillies) story lines, but I just can't see Moyer screwing this opportunity up. He's waited for this game his entire career, I think he's going to go out with one last masterful performance and out duel the young punk Garza (cue the Rocky theme music).

I should also mention that there is a Flyers game and I think a Who concert down at the stadium complex tonight, so you really might want to use mass transit. You could even leave your car at a garage in Center City and then take the Broad St Line down. It is going to be a mess down there tonight.

I've always stuck up for Charlie, but I can't help but question his decision to pitch Moyer in every game three, always after an off day. This could easily give the edge to the opposing offense, who get an extra day to have it beaten into their brains to be patient and to learn to hit Moyer's stuff.

Chris -

Why would someone with tickets for game 5, possibly the clinching game, want to forfeit their tickets and go to game 4 just because some people may feel inconvenienced by a rainout? Be flexible. It's the World Series and it only happens once every 15 years.

loctastic: Thanks for the info, it's much appreciated! :-)

just watched Caple's satirical video of Moyer's age on ESPN.com. got me thinking - someone should do a satirical sports show a la "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" that makes fun of sports pundits and athletes. Sports talking heads are almost as idiotic as political talking heads.

BAP: Just how bad are Garza's numbers? He had a 3.70 ERA and 120 ERA+ Myers ERA+ was 96. No comparison.

If form holds, the Phillies lose today and win tomorrow and Monday.

i highly doubt tonights game will be rained out, let alone delayed. the system looks like it'll be gone by start time.

Clout, what form are you referring to?

clout: Obviously Garza has had a better season than Myers. My point was not that the two are equal. My point was that both have excellent stuff and the ability to be dominant when they're on, but they both struggle with consistency. Garza's ERA is good, not great and, if he were an elite starter, he would have won more than 11 games with a 97-win team. He certainly is capable of being dominant tonight, but he's just as likely to last only 5 innings and allow 3 runs.


G-town Dave. If G-town means Germantown, then take the train/subway if you are going to the game. Theres is going to be the Eagles game, Phillies game and The Who is playing Wachovia.
SEPTA has said there will be late trains after the game.


At this point I am not even considering #'s, it like its all on a game-to-game basis now and as we all know, baseball can be fluky

ribbies: I assume he's referring to the pitching matchups. Based on playoff performance, it's hard to argue with clout's assessment. But I am not prepared to conclude that a 2-game sample size is a better predictor of tonight's performance than full-season numbers. Based on full season numbers, the pitching matchups in Games 3 and 4 are pretty much dead even.

i think tonight will be a different game without the dh for sure. but i really hope the fans are going to get under the rays skin. i have no doubt that citizens bank is going to be so loud i might hear it down here in Virginia. just hoping to see a better performance at the plate

i think tonight will be a different game without the dh for sure. but i really hope the fans are going to get under the rays skin. i have no doubt that citizens bank is going to be so loud i might hear it down here in Virginia. just hoping to see a better performance at the plate

I don't see how CBP can be that much scarier than Fenway or Yankee Stadium. They've had some experience this year of being the heavy in the Northeast.

I'm in the city for the weekend. Any recommendations on a good place to watch the end of the Flyers game and game 3 today? My sisters live on Spruce but they seem to be lacking in the good bar/restaurant info.

i think the biggest homefield advantage is with out of town pitchers thinking too much about the fences.

the same can be said (to a smaller degree) with out of town hitters swinging for the fecnces and getting themselves out.

Fenway and Yankee stadiums have a lot of history, which is majestic. That can briefly unsettle players. CBP has Phillies fans, who can be unsettling consistently. You have to experience it. :)

The reason I'm annoyed about moving Monday's Game 5 to Tuesday in case of a rainout of today's Game 3 is . . . I live in Virginia, and made plans at work and with family to go up to Philly. I'm going to have to move some mountains to get to a Game 5 on Tuesday, if that happens . . .

BP.com:

Garza sensibly relies upon his heaters more than most—he threw either 72.2 percent of the time during the regular season, according to the Pitch-f/x data at Fangraphs.com. Among the 88 ERA title qualifiers this season, that was the sixth-highest percentage for straight fastballs; only Daniel Cabrera, Aaron Cook, Mike Pelfrey, Vicente Padilla, and Livan Hernandez threw them more often. Moyer, meanwhile, is part of a fraternity of hurlers who rely heavily upon the cut fastball: only Jesse Litsch, Roy Halladay, and Andy Sonnanstine (Tampa Bay's Game Four starter) threw a greater percentage of cutters than Moyer, who tossed three in every 10 pitches this year, while relying upon the customary fastball just 40 percent of the time. ... Furthermore, what limited history there is between Moyer and the current group of Rays does not bode well for the soft-tossing old left-hander: the two that have seen him the most are Carlos Peña, who is 10-for-20 with a pair of home runs against Moyer, and Carl Crawford, who is 9-for-19. Both Peña and Crawford hit from the left side, and despite the fact that Moyer is a southpaw, left-handed batters have had an easier go of it against him over the course of his 22-year career, generating an OPS of 767, compared with 737 for the righties. In this respect, Moyer is similar to his ace rotation-mate Cole Hamels, as the two share a trait that stems from each pitcher's heavy usage of the changeup and a straight over-the-top delivery. Tampa Bay fared a good deal worse against left-handed starters during the regular season, which is mainly why the BP series odds slightly favored Philadelphia at the outset. The reverse splits of Hamels and Moyer help to mitigate that disadvantage, and are part of the case that Joe Sheehan has made to support his choice of the Rays in six.

Philly fans in a playoff game? Yeah, its gonna be interesting for the Rays players. I Wouldnt go into the crowd for a foul ball...they might lose an arm.

How's the weather look so far? Are we looking at a rainout or just a delay?

Besides the whole RISP debacle that was well-rehased what amazed me the first two games, I was just amazed at the number of really bad swings and lack of contact.

Hopefully it did have to do with problems of picking up the ball and Phils at least have some better swings (and results) in CBP.

Jamie Moyer: “It’s something that I’ve been dreaming about my whole life.”

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/la-sp-seriesfyi25-2008oct25,0,4914191.story

GPG: I thihk maybe a delay, but I was just hearing on the radio that they might just start on time with some light drizzle.

Weather Channel now saying 10% chance of rain at 8 pm, 0% by 9. PLAY BALL!

The Who?

Gosh, this IS like 1983!

G-Town Dave - I went to the NLDS (Game 2 - brett myers baby!) and we parked in the turf club parking lot. Paid $20 but we got a $20 betting voucher, which we bet on an overwhelming favorite to show. Turf Club paid us $0.80 to park in their lot.

1980 game 6 on the CW right now!

My bet for tonight:

Garza doesn't dominate the Phils and the Phils put some runs on the board tonight. Nothing crazy but lets say 5 runs which would be a marked improvement from Game 1 and 2.

Problem is that I don't know what Moyer gives the Phils. If the strike zone continues to be wide like it has been the frist two games, then he might do alright. It will allow him to get out in front of hitters which for a guy like Moyer means everything beause he doesn't have a pitch that hitters miss that he can rely upon in a hitters count (2-0 or 3-1) to bail him out.

Really comes down to how well Moyer does against Upton and Longoria from the right-side and Pena who for some odd-reason has very strong career numbers against Moyer. Also interesting to see if Madden starts Baldelli in RF tonight or Zobrist. gross won't start because of lefty bat and weak numbers against LHP.

If the Phils play solid defense tonight behind Moyer, then I say Gramps give them a decent outing. Say something like 5 2/3 or 6 innings and 3 runs. If not, I see something similiar to the Brewers outing but not the disaster against the Dodgers.

If Jamie Moyer doesn't win tonight, there is no baseball god.

Some good back-and-forth on Madden's performance so far in the Series. I generally give Madden a plus on the positive side of the ledger and Cholly a negative. I don't fault Cholly for starting Coste or Dobbs at the DH. That was the generous concensus and the players just failed there.

Decisions to pinch-run with Bruntlett for Burrell early in Game 1 was foolish and Bruntlett meant he came up in the 9th inning in a key spot with RISP in a 1-run game instead of Burrell. This has happened way too many times this year. Couple of minor things but mainly not to use Stairs to PH in a key sitaution where the Phils need a few runs to make sure they were close enough late to make a legit comeback. Instead, they were down 4-0 and it was to deep of a hole.

Besides getting the bullpen up to start the 7th in Game 1 just in-case Hamels' ran out of gas or into trouble is the only move I can really think of that was a really good idea by Cholly. Maybe you give him credit for Bruntlett PH in Game 2 too but it was either him or Taguchi.

Forgot who said it the Game 2 posts but Cholly did look like he was dead. Two terrible calls (e.g., Baldelli 3rd strike which when I saw on replays was a horrendous non-call by the home up) and Cholly didn't come out of the dugout to argue either one.

Kind of odd because Cholly is usually out of dugout in those instances and certainly hasn't shown an aversion to getting tossed when he thinks the Phils got jobbed on a clear bad call.

Hopefully Cholly feels more comfortable back at home and we see him make some better decisions in Game 3.

So I see a stat that the Phillies were 42-15 in the regular season when Rollins scored a run, and 50-55 when he didn't.

JRoll did not score a run in 105 games? I know that this was a slow year for him, but that number is crazy.

BAP: Please reconcile these two statements:

1. "Obviously Garza has had a better season than Myers. My point was not that the two are equal"

2. "Based on full season numbers, the pitching matchups in Games 3 and 4 are pretty much dead even."

Hint: The first statement is True. The second statement is False.

Ribbie: I assume you haven't been reading Beerleaguer much. I've discussed this several times over the past week. Before the series began I said if form holds, the Phillies will win game 1, lose games 2 and 3 and win games 4 and 5. How am I doing so far?

In an earlier thread Tray had a great summation of how to judge odds in a baseball game, but I'm not going to dig thru posts to find it. Needless to say the pitching matchups are the key ingredient.

Cholly probably didn't argue the strike/walk call more vehemently because you're not supposed to argue balls/strikes. Didn't want to be ejected in the WS.

whiskey: That number is a little misleading. J-Roll didn't even PLAY in 25 games so he couldn't have scored a run there. They should back those games out and tell us what the breakdown is when he played but didn't score.

Carlton looking pretty sharp tonight with the slider breaking down and in to righties and putting his fastball on the outside corner.

Carlton getting his curve over for strikes. That's really unfair.

That carpet at the Vet looks absolutely horrible, who ever thought that was a good idea?

Kind of hoping for a delay tonight so I can watch PSU-OSU which starts at 8.

Why do two of the biggest games in the last ten years have to be at the same time???

I look for a good start from Moyer. The Rays are young and free-swinging. They won't know to expect from Moyer. It would be nice to see some clutch hitting and mistake-free baseball from the Fightins.

Ozark: "The Rays are young and free-swinging."

Several posters have been saying this. The stats show that this is false. Their OB was better than the Phils and 4th in the AL. They were 2nd in the AL in walks. They DO strikeout quite a bit because of their sluggers Pena, Logoria and Upton. But they also walk a lot. A free-swinging team doesn't get many walks.

Random question...did anyone have a 17-game partial plan last year that could tell me how much the whole thing ended up costing them?

Notice how Green breaks up the two righties - Schmidt & Luzinski - by inserting Bake McBride between them. Hope Cholly is watching this game.

If I'd have thought of it I would've suggested that Weitzel put up a game chat for this game.

Luzinski isn't nearly as big as I remember him. I almost thought he was Keith Moreland! (Okay that didn't really need an exclamation point.) For real though, its amazing how different the players look physically from players today. Bowa makes Craig Counsel look big.

Um, the VHS tape Philly 57 is using to show this game just seemed to skip a portion. Hasn't this game been put on DVD yet?

Lineup posted:

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2. Jayson Werth, RF
3. Chase Utley, 2B
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Pat Burrell, LF
6. Shane Victorino, CF
7. Pedro Feliz, 3B
8. Carlos Ruiz, C
9. Jamie Moyer, P

Luzinski did slim down a bit at some point. Maybe that was the year.

and in case you're curious -

1. Akinori Iwamura, 2B
2. B.J. Upton, CF
3. Carlos Pena, 1B
4. Evan Longoria, 3B
5. Carl Crawford, LF
6. Dioner Navarro, C
7. Gabe Gross, RF
8. Jason Bartlett, SS
9. Matt Garza, P

One thing that has been shown this postseason:

- Werth is a nice complimentary player but really is only an average defensive player at best who get overexposed when playing full-time.

I'm a bit surprised the Werth is still hitting second, that was the only change I was suspecting. I know Utley and Howard would continue to be attached at the hip.

Also, there was a funny story in today Daily News about a guy who bumped into Utley at a gas station - ""I went, 'Chase? Chase Utley?' " Mroz said. "He turned around, smiling. I went crazy, jumping up and down, hollering, 'My man, pots and pans!' which made no sense, and 'Let's DO this, Chase! Let's bring the Series HOME!' ""

I want a "My man, pots and pans!" t-shirt.

"BAP: Please reconcile these two statements:

1. "Obviously Garza has had a better season than Myers. My point was not that the two are equal"

2. "Based on full season numbers, the pitching matchups in Games 3 and 4 are pretty much dead even."

I'll reconcile them for you. Moyer had a better season than Myers as well. Therefore, Garza and Moyer could be even. There's no problem reconciling Game 4, as statement 1 says nothing about the Game 4 starters.

So much for any change or creating thinking for Cholly. Madden starting Gross in LF is odd given Gross terrible splits against LHP.

There should be enough "easier outs" in the Rays lineup tonight for Moyer to get by as long as can handle Upton and Pena. Longoria is a really nice young hitter but Phils' advance scouts have done a really nice job on him and Phils' pitchers have delievered so far.

MG - The 11 games this postseason showed that? Did they also show that Rollins is a terrible offensive player?

Wow...what a switchup in the lineup...oh nevermind.

We should cut Jimmy outright today right now. The playoffs have PROVEN that he's not up to playing SS at the MLB level.

Didn't Werth dazzle us by gunning out one of the Brewers rounding first?

Feliz post ASB: .189/.250/.283
Feliz postseason: .212/.257/.242

There better be 4 or more balls hit to third.

Out here in SF, trying to figure out whether I should go to the bar right at 5 or expect a rain delay. Any insight from anyone in Philly looking out their window?

Thanks

Is there ever a reason not to go to the bar early? What's the worse that can happen? More beer?

From Phillies.com

Though the 8:35 p.m. ET start time appears to be unlikely, on-field members of the stadium grounds crew expressed optimism that the contest -- the first World Series game scheduled in Philadelphia since 1993 -- would be played on Saturday.

Ok, great point The Other Kevin. Although between tonight, an eagle game at 10am, and another phillie game at 5pm, there is a lot of upcoming bar time over the next 30 hours.

Ribbies, the 1980 WS game 6 is available on Itunes

Charlie using Werth, Feliz & Ruiz against the righty. Also not splitting the lefties. Wants it to be a low scoring game I guess.

Yo, new thread

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