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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

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Cole is the key to getting off on the right foot. If he can continue his great run in this first World Series game the Phils should be in excellent position.

Did we turn the clocks back? Because I feel like time is standing still.

All - go read the article posted in the DN right now by Stan Hockman "McGraw Strikes Out the Mighty K.C." It was originally written on 10/23/80. It will bring back memories (for some) and give you chills.

I agree Mike. I was just down at City Hall for the city pep rally and was glad to see the place packed. It was really the first time this has sunk in that we're in the world series. This city is ready.

Attend to personal matters? What's that crap, you mean life actually exists outside of Philsville, USA?

does anyone else find it strange that in our four world series defeats we've lost to

BOSTON-1915
NY Yankees-1950
BALTIMORE- 1983
TORONTO-1993
TAMPA-???????

all AL East....

Dan: Yes, and we've lost to them in the order that they've entered the league, too.

How about we break that cycle this year. I'm tired of Philly teams being so predictable.

Hamels' starts are must-win games for this team. no margin for error.

This is a new millennium, so throw that garbage about losing to AL East teams out the window. Howard goes deep tonight.

Check out my Philly blog!

philistinephan.blogspot.com

1915 - lost
1950 - lost
1980 - won
1983 - lost
1993 - lost
2008 - pattern says win

80 and 08

45 and 54

If that last is too obscure, McGraw number 45, Lidge #54.

Linups announced

PHILS
Rollins
Vic
Utley
Howard
Burrell
Werth
Feliz
Ruiz
Coste

RAYS
Iwamura
Upton
Pena
Longoria
Crawford
Aybar
Navarre
Baldelli
Bartlott

from ESPN

Utley and Howard B2B? Against a lefty when the Rays have several lefties in the pen?

Me no likey. It was fine against the Dodgers because they were RH and didn't have too many lefty threats out of the BP, but not with the Rays. Offense is of utmost importance here.

In this game, it's inexcusable to not split up Utley and Howard. Maybe we get away with it, and maybe they both even have good games, but it's the wrong baseball move, no question about it.

I know we're all managers and GM's, but it is what it is. the Dodgers had as many LH bullpen pitchers as the Rays. Personally, I would have added Marson AND used him as the DH, but I'm radical.

i knew charlie wouldn't change it up now. oh well.

Cholly's had Utley and Howard B2B all season. He wasn't going to change that now.

LET'S GO PHILLIES!

UD Hens: Actually, he hasn't. He split them up when we were facing some tough lefties toward the end of the season. You have to admit that it does make sense.

I hope Coste can bunt, because a man on 1st and 0 or 1 out, swinging means an automatic DP.

ae: I agree with you. The Phillies need to win Hamels' starts. I said the same thing during the Dodgers series & someone (maybe sophist) pointed out that teams DO win post-season series without necessarily getting winning starts from their ace every time out. But, in the Phillies' case, there is a huge drop-off between their No. 1 pitcher & everyone else. Once Hamels' outing is past, the Rays will have the pitching edge in every other game. Of course, the Phillies COULD lose tonight and still win the series but, if they lose tonight, their odds of winning the series would go down by an enormous amount.

If someone said They won't split the LHs but they'll make the smart move at DH, I'd respond Fair compromise.

Now, if we can just get Dobbs at 3B and Stairs at DH tomorrow, I'll wet myself.

At least he went with Coste at DH tonight...that's what I would have done. I was afraid we might get a So-tober surprise or he might hide burrell in the dh with brunlett instead.

This should be the only game the Phils have to worry about having a RH DH. We have Cole going for us tonight and if anyone can come off this layoff and perform he's the man. I do think at least once or more in this series we'll see the Dobbs/Stairs combo.

In Gut we trust.

ozark: Really? How many DPs did Coste hit into during the season? What was his GIDP rate compared to Pedro Feliz, for example?

I actually smell a big game from Coste tonight. Of course, I'm the same guy that, in the last thread, picked Pedro Feliz to be World Series MVP.

The Rays do not have tougher LHs out of the bullpen than the Dodgers...

Kershaw, Price (Price probably has better stuff, but both young and inexperienced, Price even more so)

Beimel, Miller (Both serviceable lefties with good splits)

Kuo, Howell (Both very good relievers who can also get out RHB)

If we're guessing on WS MVP, I'm going with Utley. If he has been playing hurt, the spacing of the games during the NLDS going on to the NLCS seemed to help him. This rest may have benefited him more than anyone.

Go figure why Coste is batting ninth. I guess Cholly figured that, since Coste is replacing the pitcher in the batting order, he has to bat in the same spot in the order where the pitcher would hit.

"""Hamels' starts are must-win games for this team. no margin for error.

Posted by: ae | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 02:30 PM """


Actually, this is conventional thinking among the pundit class, as even Kruk and others who pick the Phillies are saying this.


I disagree. If the Phillies bats all come alive at the same time, as the DN's David Murphy's "hunch" says, the pitching matchups aren't going to matter that much, and the Rays pitchers are going to be one unhappy group.

The same could be said for the other side.


This series could turn on a couple of key double plays or bobbled balls, or one or two bad pitches (just ask Derek Lowe).

So, I don't adhere to the mantra that tonight is a 'must win' for the Phillies. It would sure help, BUT....


this is baseball - anything can happen.

bap: Actually... there were others on here advocating Coste 9th because his higher OBP could help turn the lineup over more. I actually like Coste 8th since his bat might drive in more hitters if Feliz, et al manage to get on.

"""Now, if we can just get Dobbs at 3B and Stairs at DH tomorrow, I'll wet myself.

Posted by: king myno | Wednesday, October 22, 2008 at 03:15 PM"""


Your Majesty,

May I suggest a box of Depends?

CJ: But Kuo wasn't used much because he was hurt prior to the end of the season so Torre had to use him sparingly. So they really only had Beimel to use most of the time.

I still think splitting the lefties would be better, but if Utley can stay hot like he was against the Dodgers, I guess it won't matter.

'80 series highlights on comcast right now... man this is emotional.

Predictions:
Phils in 5.

MVP- Burrell, with 2 jacks, 8 rbi, and .300+ avg.

Surprise moment- Moyer pitching 7 shutout innings with the lone run coming on a Pat Burrell homerun to win Game 3.

Oh baby, I love how you think GM-Carson!

262 minutes until first pitch!

GM - awesome! Make it SO (not Taguchi)!

Brett Myers did not get fair consideration for the DH slot. wtf?

GM-Carson- I like that pick. I made the same prediction a few threads ago. I agree that pap's Moyer will be the surprise. I like him against the young Rays.

GO PHILLIES!!!!!

*the 5 game win, not Burrell winning MVP.

Much is made of the lefty v. lefty matchup. The way I see it, Chase is not much worse against southpaws than righthanders.

Career:
Overall: .298/.375/.526 OPS+ of 100
v RHP: .306/.373/.546 OPS+ of 103
v LHP: .280/.371/.479 OPS+ of 93

Not a huge difference in numbers there. Howard, OTOH, well I think we all know the story there.

Myno's got it right up there. At this point, it was pretty hard to imagine Charlie splitting the lefties, but not so hard to imagined Burrell DHing and Bruntlett as the LF. As such, I am happy to see Coste as the DH and Burrell in the field. A start in the World Series is clearly the pinnacle of Coste's career--maybe we can get some magic out of him tonight.

doubleh: I don't think that's right...

Kuo pitched in Games 1, 4 and 5. He wasn't needed in Game 3 because the Dodgers jumped out to the early lead. Only Cory Wade and Chan Ho Park appeared more out of the bullpen.

"This series could turn on a couple of key double plays or bobbled balls"

Oh no, this intensifies the Feliz v Dobbs debate. Because Feliz hits into DPs, and Dobbs bobbles balls.

I disagree. If the Phillies bats all come alive at the same time, as the DN's David Murphy's "hunch" says, the pitching matchups aren't going to matter that much, and the Rays pitchers are going to be one unhappy group.

well, clearly that's true. but the point is that the Rays' pitchers are really really good, and an offensive explosion over the next seven games is really really unlikely.

given that, winning Hamels' two starts is really the only way the Phillies can win the series. if that means I have to agree with Kruk & Phillips...well, even a stopped clock etc.

Perhaps as a good luck omen, today's tear-off sheet in the 2008 Cooperstown Hall of Fame Daily Calendar is "Mike Schmidt Career Memorabilia".

CJ: Does the concept of "flipping the lineup" even apply in an American League game? The idea of flipping the lineup is to get that one extra hit so the pitcher can make the third out & not have to lead off, or come up, the next inning. If Coste flips the lineup in the 9th spot, and Rollins then makes the last out, then you're not really better off the next inning.

In any case, I'm not sure I buy into the notion that a guy who bats lower in the order does more to "flip the lineup over" than the guy who hits ahead of him. As the theory goes, it's better to bat the decent hitter 8th & the bad one 7th because, if there are 2 outs, the decent hitter has a better chance of getting a hit. But wouldn't the same be true if the good hitter batted in the 7th spot and got a hit with 1 out? Seems to me it all evens out in the end. It's therefore better to bat the better hitter higher in the order, where there will presumably be more RBI opportunities.

Go Phillies!

Phillies Insider has Coste 8th and 'Cooch' 9th.

The mysterious "Cooch" appears yet again.

Its not a big deal, but Phillies Insider has DH Coste batting 8th and Ruiz batting 9th.

"Its not a big deal, but Phillies Insider has DH Coste batting 8th and Ruiz batting 9th. "

TK beat me to it.

Yes, the 'Cooch' joke is not old just yet.

Let's do this.

But that's terrible! Now we won't turn over the lineup!

Phillies win 3-2 tonight, Rays in 7. And again, I'm going to say that we'd have a better chance to win if we switched Myers and Moyer around. Moyer's better outside of the Zen, Myers is hot at the plate right now and better at home (even if his road performance hasn't been as bad as that 6.21 road ERA suggests) - do it, Charlie.

I'm off to the excitement of a night class exam (blunt force trauma, anyone?). I hope when I emerge, we'll be sporting a solid lead in the 4th or 5th.

@TK -- I second.

LET'S DO THIS!

Should be a fun series. As a Mets fan, I want to congratulate you guys on being there. You deserve it. Hope to see a good series and I don't care who wins. Good luck, guys and gals.

Tonight's predictions:
If Cole throws his 50th pitch bin the 4th inning, the Rays are in trouble.

If Utley gets his second AB in the third inning, the Rays are in trouble.

If both of those things happen, the Phillies win.

(If they don't, well, they probably will win anyway, cause they're the Phils.)

For the series:
I look forward to Brad Lidge pitching with police horses on the field. Phils in 5.

I think Hamels will be able to keep the hitters off-balance with the changeup and the occassional curve. The key, as always, will be to keep the ball down in the zone. I don't know a whole lot about the hitting tendencies of the Rays, but it looked like a lot of the bombs they hit off of Red Sox pitching were mistakes up in the zone. I guess I'm not really saying anything all that novel though. I'm just having a hard time of passing the next 2 and a half hours or so.

Tray: Frankly, if you're switching starters, it makes sense to do Blanton and Myers. Then, you still split up lefty/righty... and Myers pitches at home... and our #2 starter is available for Game 7 if needed. Myers' bat is not, and never will be, a reason to start him at home. I like the rotation the way it is, however.

Jason, if my memory serves me correctly, the picture you posted in the thread is from Charlie's visit with Cole on the mound in game 5, right before he struck out Kent to end the 7th.


I remember that look - that "don't even think you're taking me out of this game" look.

Buster Olney points out opposing pitchers have averaged just over 4 innings per start against the Phils in 9 postseason games.

Wow.

And that's CC, Lowe, Billingsley, Kuroda... some really, really good starters in there.

I guess I'm worried that Hamels will have a little trouble keeping the ball down early in the game. I think that, if the Rays are going to beat him, they'll need to get something on the board early. Kazmir, on the other hand, had a good outing last time but it seemed he didn't have the best command then, or the previous time out. I would hope our guys make him throw strikes. If they do, I expect to see their bullpen by the 6th.

Hugh: What makes you believe Hamels will have trouble? There's been little evidence of that in his last three postseason starts.

Go Cole! You Da Man! It just doesn't get any better than to be going into the World Series! Yay, Phillies!

Myers is key to the series. If Hamels wins game one, then a clutch performance by Myers essentially clinches the series. If Hamels loses game one, then a clutch performance keeps the series alive, and a bad performance would mean the Phils' chances would be slim.

Mark my words, Myers is the key to the series.

Cole's last time out, he seemed to be elevating his pitches in the first couple innings. Also, when they gave him a long rest after the all-star break, he didn't seem to have his usual command and was uncharacteristically battling his way through.

Hugh: I think that was largely a myth. Cole is very comfortable throwing his changeup up in the zone. It doesn't necessarily make it more hittable. He will try to change the batters eye level and then kill them down. Cole had a LONG rest before his first LCS start and pitched well. He made a mistake to Ramirez in the first, but that was the worst of it. In his second start, he only gave up a walk in the first inning. Cole Hamels is the last thing I'm worried about.

It would be huge to get at least one in the first inning. When Hamels has a lead, even a small one, he is very aggressive.

flipper: I think you're right in this sense: The matchups and stats say Hamels and Blanton will win and Myers and Moyer will lose. That yields a 2-2 split, if form holds. If the Phils steal game 2 behind Myers, then that could indeed be the turning point of the series.

I love how the Phils are underdogs in the media's eyes. The Phils are a come from behind team and "backs agaist the wall" fighters, this sets up perfectly mentaly.


phlipper- I agree that Myers is the key, we need a big game 2 from him.

Chooch hasn't been an automatic out in the post season, so don't assume he won't produce now.

are they serious?

I heard some crazy stat that batters under the age of 28 are batting .133 against moyer, can anyone confirm?

I work third shift and I havent been able to sleep all day! Let get this started already!!

UTS!!!!!!!

WHoa who told Victorino to run on that short fly? come on. What a dumb play.

They gotta capatalize on all these base runners, the baseball gods frown upon this.

ALL THESE stranded runners --> missed 'runs' - hope this doesn't bite in the butt later,,,

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