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Saturday, October 25, 2008


The only thing I'm more pessimistic about than the Phils chances tonight is the likelihood of having this game at all. Moyer hasn't been sharp, the Rays can hit soft-tossers, and Manuel is running out a lineup hardly ideal tonight.

Hard throwing righties aint Werth's cup of tea.

My money says Moyer puts us in a hole in a hurry. has the lineup. Feliz at third, Werth in the 2-hole.

Ugh. Disgusting. Honestly. I hope they put up a big number and prove me wrong, but this is probably the worst lineup you could put together with the regulars.

Charlie using Werth, Feliz & Ruiz against the righty. Also not splitting the lefties. Wants it to be a low scoring game I guess.

banana - I guess Cholly thinks 2 runs is all grandpa will need tonight. Fat chance.

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Now, I know the Phillies offense has been poor the last two games, but you go with the lineup that got you here and this is the one. You could change Victorino and Werth, but then the bottom of your lineup isn't balanced. Burrell and Werth don't bat third very often, and you have to play Feliz with Moyer on the mound. Therefore, I think that this is the lineup you go with.

Why is it a surprise that Manuel is running Feliz out there? He said a month ago that without exception, Feliz plays when lefthanded pitchers who rely on changeups, ie. Moyer and Hamels, are on the mound. And the way Dobbs looked in game 1, I'm not sure the minimally incremental gains in offense are worth it.

And clout, who do you want instead of Ruiz?

Okay... Carlton's cooked. Get him out.

Agreed Bob. Ruiz is better defensively and has actually hit very well in the Series so far, so you play him over Coste. Even if you did start Dobbs (who was a deer in headlights Thursday), you lose your best pinch hitter and sacrifice defense. Werth won the starting job in August, you don't take it away from him now because of one loss.

In two games Ruiz, and Hamels have been the most consistently good so far.

bob: yeah, one bad game by Dobbs cancels what he's been doing for the past 6 weeks. And Feliz gets at least 9 balls a game at third that no one else could get to so his automatic out is fine.

Actually I would keep Ruiz in there over Coste but I'd sit Werth and Feliz and split the lefties.

Not a lot of enthusiasm tonight on this thread so far. It has been a gloomy day.

I share the apprehension. I was listening to the radio an hour ago and I can't remember who it was, but I thought it summed things up. He said the challenge for the Phillies now is, basically for the first time all year, to make the team fire on all cylinders.

It is time. Go Phils!

didn't ruiz actually hit RHP better than LHP this year? too lazy to check at the moment, but i want to say he did for at least most of the season. and, either way, i'd rather have him than coste. he's looked great the last couple weeks.

as for feliz...yeah, no excuses there. and werth, well, he hasn't looked great.

Actually I counted during the last game and Feliz field 17 groundballs including several that weren't even hit towards 3B. There's also the well-discussed psychological advantage the Phillies get from having him out there at 3B intimidating the opposing team.

clout: you seem to forget that most of what Dobbs does is off the bench, not as a starter. Secondly, Feliz gets to probably one ball a game that Dobbs can't. That one ball in Game 1 was Upton's double play, which saved the game in my opinion. Feliz is also hitting .286 in the series with a .375 OBP, so h e is not an automatic out. Werth has been the starter since August and in the playoffs, but you would bench him today? Why? For double-play Jenkins?

Wow, pphan. After such specious logic, be prepared for some fact-filled rebuttals.

Sophist - Agreed about the lineup. Not crazy about it but still think the Phils manage to score 4 or 5 runs tonight. The question is what Moyer gives them. If can reasonably handle Upton and Pena, then Moyer has a shot to give the Phils a decent outing but this is a big "if."

Sophist: Haha. Count me prepared. I'm not saying I LOVE having Feliz/Ruiz/Pitcher 7/8/9, but Manuel is kind of handcuffed here.

I wouldn't bench Werth but I wouldnt mind swapping him and Vic in the order. I'd love to split the lefties too but we'll see what happens. Feliz has done fairly well so far on both offense and defense. It will hoenstly come down to Rollins, Utley and Howard as it should.

PhilliesPhan - Feliz against a righty with Garza's stuff is a definite mismatch. Unless Garza hangs a fastball right over the fat part of the plate (about middle-in and belt-high), my money says is Feliz hitless against Garza tonight.

I wish Cholly would start Dobbs at 3B tonight and hit in the 7 hole and say Feliz as a right-handed PH bat, defensive replacement if the Phils are up late. I know this might seem nuts but I wouldn't mind seeing Feliz vs. Howell late in a PH spot.

PhilliesPhan: "Secondly, Feliz gets to probably one ball a game that Dobbs can't."

This is the silliest post ever on beerleaguer. LOL

P.S. Dobbs hit over .350 as a starter at 3B in september and the playoffs. Saying you'd rather he get 1 AB instead of 4 is laughable.

NEPP: Agreed about Vic and Werth, the only thing is that you have 4 Righties and the pitcher and the bottom of the order, so I wouldnt do that tonight. However, if I were Maneul I would consider flip-flopping Werth and Utley.

Even though Werth played poorly in Game 2, there is no way you bench him because the replacements (Stairs, Jenkins, or Taguchi) just don't bring enough to the table.

NEPP: How has Feliz done on offense against RHP? Did you say "fairly well"?

I agree that Werth should not start. I think it's time to see Jenkins step up for this one and Dobbs at third.

PhilliesPhan: Greg Dobbs hit 7 HR and had an .814 OPS as a starter this season. He hit 2 HR with an .845 OPS as a replacement. Tough to say that "most" of what Dobbs does comes off the bench. He's a great pinch hitter, but why would you leave one of your best bats vs. RHP on the bench in favor of a terrible bat vs. RHP on the off chance you'll need him to pinch hit?

That's the "specious" logic Sophist referred to.


Clout: I have no idea. I know he's been okay overall so far. I'm trying to be positive about the lineup as there's nothing I can do about it.

Flipping Utley and Werth might be worthwhile though. Werth has to break out at some point despite another righty...right?

Clout: Sorry, no matter how much you wish that Dobbs was a glove master, he would NOT have turned that Upton double play. But I'm glad I gave you a good laugh, it doesn't seem like you get out much.

Clout and MG: Moyer on the mound = Feliz starting. Hell, with Moyer on the mound last year Manuel would start Abraham Nunez for defense. DEFENSE AND PITCHING WINS IN THE PLAYOFFS.

And clout, I would much rather Dobbs have 1 AB and Feliz's defense with Moyer on the mound. If Blanton or Myers is starting tonight, you start Dobbs. However, with Moyer on the mound, its Feliz.

Yeah while we LOVE to debate Dobbs/Feliz on here this game is really coming down to what the JRoll, Utley, and Howard do tonight.

One prediction tonight - one of the second-tier guys (e.g., Vic, Werth) comes through in a huge spot tonight with 1 or 2 RBIs.

Prediction tonight - Rays win it 6-4 and the angst, second-guessing will start even though I still think the Phils take 2 of 3 at CBP.

IMO, here's what gives us the best chance to win tonight:


But we've won in spite of Manuel's questionable lineup decisions before, so here's hoping we do that again!

Wow, the weather seems to be dictating everyone's outlook for the game. Granted the dreary weather has me down and I'm not expecting too much tonight...but, we are in the WORLD SERIES. Game 3! We've sacrificed our well being by following this team for the past 6 months. We are in a hell of a position right now. Let's keep our heads held high and show the rest of the country how passionate we are. See ya down there in 2 hours. GO PHILS!

NEPP: Feliz has been fine vs. LHP. He's been useless against RHP. That's why you sit him.

So, out of curiosity, when is the last time Jenkins actually started? Or even had more than just a PH. Seriously, I can't even remember the last meaningful game he's play. Your theory is to toss him out there in Game 3 of the WS and expect him to come through after not playing in weeks.

Start Jenkins? No way. I don't want to see Jenkins in this game unless the Phils absolutely run out of players. The only player I have confidence in right now is Taguchi.

And how soon we forget how TERRIBLE Dobbs looked in Game 2. Not saying he shouldn't start again because of that game, but I'm sure it factored into Manuel's decision. Dobbs will probably get the start tomorrow versus Sonnastine.

It is 70 and sunny out here in SF. Just too bad I am stuck inside working on a beautiful day.

PhilliesPhan: Why do you think Feliz should start with Moyer on the mound? Do you think there are significantly more chances at third with Moyer on the mound? Do you know if there is actual evidence to support that? (I'll give you a hint...)

Finally, how many additional chances do you think Feliz needs to get to offset the significant loss in offense you get with Feliz at the plate?

Cj- there was also that line about Feliz' #s "this series," which I believe is 2 games. I posted Feliz' #s since ASB and in the playoffs in the last thread. My guess is that he's hitting below .200 in that time.

***Yeah while we LOVE to debate Dobbs/Feliz on here this game is really coming down to what the JRoll, Utley, and Howard do tonight. ***


NEPP: I looked this up, other than the last game of the season, Jenkins has had one start since Aug. 16th... and he came out in the 4th inning of that game. He's only had like 15 at bats since that date. No way Jenkins merits a start.

my main point is this: for the ENTIRE year, Feliz has played 3b(unless he was hurt) when Moyer and Hamels were pitching. It may be the wrong policy as we've debated on here many times, but that is the policy that has gotten the Phillies to this point and the policy that the Phillies will live or die with. And I'd make the case that it's not just Manuel's policy. I bet Moyer and Hamels would feel weird seeing Dobbs standing behind them on 3b. Baseball is a game of routines and while being adaptive is generally a good thing, there could be nothing worse than having uncertain confidence in throwing a changeup to righty batters because you have a new/untested element playing behind you defensively. (most likely, righty batters will be ahead of the changeup and roll it towards the third-base side of the mound)

that all said, i wouldn't be surprised if the rays be able to really handle moyer's pitches tonight. happ knows to be ready to go and the offense knows they need to pick moyer up and pull this one out.

PhilliesPhan - So did JRoll and Werth. It doesn't mean that they won't rebound until I am suspect that JRoll contributes much this series. When he gets into a funk it usually last a few weeks, his plate disclipline dries up and he pops up more often than he should.

I am looking forward to seeing Moyer tonight! The starting lineup tonight for the Rays has only seen a total of 53 Plate Appearances vs Moyer, with Pena (22) and Crawford (20) making up the bulk of them. Compare this to Moyer's other two post-season starts: against MIL (102 PAs), against LAD (132 PAs). The Rays lineup tonight is largely unexperienced against Moyers which greatly favors Moyers' success.
Iwamura, Longoria, and Gross have never faced Moyer, while Upton, Navarro and Bartlett have faced him under 5 times each.

Go Moyer!!!

bob - That logic is bogus. Like saying you wear two diffent colored socks and just because no one told you look foolish does it mean you should continue to do so.

How many playoff games this season were won because of Rollins or Howard?

CJ - I'm sure you have TONS of numbers. But Manuel has gone with his gut ALL year, and Feliz has started at third ALL YEAR with Moyer on the mound, and here we are in the World Series. You don't change now. Sometimes you have to go with your gut over the numbers, and I agree with Manuel here. You start Dobbs tomorrow versus Sonnastine. But, I respect your opinion, I just want Feliz's defense tonight.

Thanks for looking it up CJ. I honestly could not remember the last time he played. He was brutal from 1 Jun on as everyone realized he couldnt catch up to balla anymore. Jenkins shouldn't even be your 2nd PH option right now.

Pinchhit Order:

1. Dobbs
2. Stairs
3. Bruntlett
4. Jenkins
5. Taguchi
6. Coste

duder - That is a much more legit arugment (lack of experience) than the "free-swinging" arugment I have heard on why Moyer might pitch alright tonight.

NICE SAVE BIRON...if anyone is watching the Flyguys.

Sophist: How many playoff games this season were won because of Rollins or Howard?

That's the problem though. Most teams dont win the WS without their big names coming through. If our big names continue to suck, we shouldn't be surprised if we dont pull this series out.

bob: You're seemingly confused. It's not that policy that got the Phillies here. It's the performance of the players. Had smarter lineup choices been made, it's very possible the road here would have been even easier. Sure, someone could say, "But it could have been even harder." That's fine... but I have real concrete numbers to support my case that Dobbs should start vs. RHP. Others present guesses like, "I bet Moyer *feeeeels* better out there with Feliz behind him."

PhilliesPhan: If you're argument is "I trust the Gut," that's fine. Other than that, there's little in the way of a logical argument for Feliz at third vs. a RHP.

CJ: I see what you are saying, and I agree that Dobbs should start MOST games against RHP. I just think that tonight is NOT one of those nights with Moyer on the mound.

NEPP - Depends on the PH order. Given that the Phils will almost entirely see lefties out of the pen for the Rays (except for Balfour), I would the PH tonight is this:

vs LHP - Coste, Bruntlett, Taguchi although I bet Cholly goes with Bruntlett here because of the Game 2

vs. RHP - Dobbs, Stairs, Jenkins

Chances of Jenkins seeing an PT tonight are almost 0% unless this game goes extra innings and Cholly does his usual routine of burning out his bench by the 8th or 9th.

And my logical argument - Upton's double play in Game 1. That's reason enough for me.

NEPP - I wouldn't. They'd probably win with pitching and some key hits from Utley, Burrell, and Vic and some in the supporting cast like they have most of the year (with the exception of Sept when Rollins and Howard woke up - and I don't mean to say that each of those guys has done it all year. Burrell of course did most of his stuff early, but he has his hits in the playoffsm.)

CJ - you're right in that i'm making a guess of how Moyer and Hamels feel with Dobbs at 3b.
but you're wrong that it's not the policy that got the Phillies here. Manuel's policy is, if Hamels or Moyer are pitching, Feliz is playing at 3b. There are a lot of interdependent variables in play, but that's been a general constant throughout this season. And Moyer and Hamels have pitched well with that general constant.
I'm not arguing that Dobbs isn't a better batter v. RHP; of course he is. What I am saying is that why raise hell or express outrage that Dobbs isn't in there when that's not what Charlie is basing his decision on?

I never tire of watching the Boone/Rose foul ball play.

I agree on Bruntlett getting moved up because of that HR.

"Yeah while we LOVE to debate Dobbs/Feliz on here this game is really coming down to what the JRoll, Utley, and Howard do tonight. "


Dobbs should probably be starting. Shane should definitely be in the 2 hole. The only thing I would consider in favor of Feliz is that with the wet conditions, I would not be surprised to see a lot of bunts. If that's the case, Feliz's defense may make a difference. If anyone wants to see Dobbs charging a lot of bunts, I'd be surprised.

Any update on the weather?

Dobbs' terrible game is being overblown. It was pretty clear that there was something about Tropicana Field's background or lighting that was causing him immense problems in picking up the ball. That won't happen at CB Park.

As for that DP ball in Game 1 . . . yeah Dobbs might not have even fielded that ball, let alone make a quick enough throw to turn 2 on a fast runner. But if you want to play that game, then Feliz's detractors can turn around and say that Dobbs probably wouldn't have left 8 runners on base in Game 5 of the NLCS, or gotten that key 2-out hit off Billingsley to start the 4-run 2nd inning in Game 2.

The issue isn't whether, in one game, Feliz happened to make an important play that Dobbs wouldn't have made. The issue is whether the likelihood, and benefit, of that happening again outweighs the benefit of having Dobbs' much better bat in the lineup. I would say no.

I'm in center city and it's not raining at the moment.

Go Flyers. Flyers beat the Devils now it's time for the Phils to beat the Devil Rays!

Prepare for the onslaught of Buck negativity re: Philadelphia & Philly fans to appear in full force this evening. The Flyers beat the Devils 3-2 in OT, but someone tossed a stink bomb onto the ice a couple of minutes before the winning goal was scored. It's gonna be a wild weekend in South Philly folks ...

Sophist: lol did you see that smoke bomb? AND THAT WAS A SICK DEFLECTION. Good setup by Vaananen too.

Sophist, that's good news.

I dont think I can deal with more Buck and McCarver fellacio towards the Rays. I wonder how many times the "horrible Phillies fanbase" is mentioned and how many "Bandbox" references are made.

And Biron really looked zoned it tonight. He made alot of key saves and had the confidence he was lacking the first few games, as evident on that overtime poke-check.

Nasty line of heavy rain to come through...could have some embedded t-storms with gusty winds. Should clear out relatively quickly after that, only some showers behind it. I would say the thunderstorms reach the park in about 20 minutes, and the rain is all clear by 8:30-9.

BAP: Feliz left 6 runners on in Game 2.

Ok, a new approach from me tonight. From this point ont, I'm going to take a stab at optimism. My fatalism doesn't seem to be generating any reverse Beerleaguer karma and it is making the experience of watching these games miserable. Besides, according to Truth Injection, if I make snide comments about the Phillies' play, then I forfeit my right to celebrate if they manage to win this thing. So, from this point out, only optimism will emanate from my keyboard.

On that note, I am in the minority that thinks they'll win tonight, & Moyer will be reasonably effective.

Jack: From what I've seen, Maddon doesn't like to bunt. Way easier to get someone out when they're bunting, slick field or not.

I also second the idea of batting Uts second and Vic 3rd.

I just heard an unconfirmed report (via a Tampa news station) that start time is likely to pushed back close to 9:30.

I would think Fox would rather just cancel it than have a game that ends after 1:00 am in the east, but what do I know?

clout: Vic third or Werth third? Not Vic right...he has never done that...ever.

BAP: Garza is a better pitcher than Moyer. That said, Jamie has the biggest heart on the team. By the way, it is now raining harder than it has at anytime all day. Could be a 2 a.m. game.

But I am all for Werth third tonight.

Clout: The heavy rain won't last very long - its a pretty slim line of thunderstorms. I would just be concerned with the lingering showers behing it.

I can't believe clout just talked about a player's heart. Although, I totally agree.

What's the difference between it ending at 12:15 (game 1) and 1:30? Its a Sat night and most people will be up either way.

NEPP: 75 minutes.

I mean, it doesn't matter to me, I'll stay up if it ends at 4:00. But I don't think casual fans without a rooting interest will.

Game 1 we picked up cheesesteaks and hoagies from a joint called Willy's Phillys. The cheesesteaks were mediocre and the hoagies good, but short on meat. Still, our Phillies won. We had Mexican for game two with obvious results. Having learned the err of our ways, I'm happy to say we just finished eating the same Game 1 order. Phils win tonight.

Thanks Jeltz. I dont think any casual fans will be watching on a Sat night anyway to be honest.

clout: Was gone all day & was just reading over the last thread in which you asked me to reconcile the following 2 statements:

1. "Obviously Garza has had a better season than Myers. My point was not that the two are equal"

2. "Based on full season numbers, the pitching matchups in Games 3 and 4 are pretty much dead even."

Why are these 2 statements irreconcilable? Garza had a better season that Myers (Statement 1), but he isn't pitching against Myers. He's pitching against Moyer. Garza’s ERA+ was all of 2 pts higher than Moyer’s this year. It is an even pitching matchup.

Likewise, Blanton’s ERA+ is all of 2 points higher than Sonnantstine’s. That is also an even pitching matchup.

Now, if you want to take into consideration how all these guys have pitched in the playoffs, then I agree there's a big edge to Garza in Game 3 and a not insignificant edge for Blanton in Game 4. But I still say that full-season stats are a better predictor of a guy's next performance than how he has done in the last 2 games.

the very strong winds are pushing the storm through philly quickly. if the winds don't die down, we're going to see about 25 HRs tonight.

come on, MLB...announce a start time. we need a decider on this, it's an hour to game time, look at the doppler, make a decision, pick a time.

Bob: The wind will diminish somewhat, but the wind direction to me is even more important. Its currently blowing south (out to center) but will change to WNW (left to right) after the storms move through.

There are rumors in the pre-game shows that the game will start at 9:30 but no official word yet.

The wind is blowing out to left and left center.

Mitch Williams says the wind is blowing very strongly toward left-center.

I live a few blocks from the stadium and the rain is coming and going quickly. I think they'll play tonight, and the field won't be that awful because the rain hasn't been steady, and when it's falling quickly, it's not coming down too long.

No posts for nearly a half hour. Is this thing working?

A couple of questions for the Dobbs lovers (who, apparently, weren't watching game 2, or who buy BAPs theory that somehow, unlike the other Phillies who said that the hitting background in Tampa is no better/worse than any other stadium).

Why, when in Seattle, did Dobbs have seasons of 53, 142, and 27 ABs? Was it because he was injured? Was it because the Mariners had some stud playing third base and he just couldn't get playing time? Or is it, like Cholly, the Mariners' managerial staff didn't think that starting Dobbs was the difference between winning/losing games?

sorry, should have read

...who buy BAPs theory that somehow, unlike the other Phillies who said that the hitting background in Tampa is no better/worse than any other stadium, Dobbs wasn't picking up the ball rather than buying the theory that he just absolutely sucked against Shields.

Don't really have a good feeling about postseason games in Philly in the rain...

Don't really have a good feeling about postseason games in Philly in the rain...

Thanks for bringing up one of my worst memories, ever.

phlipper: So you prescribe to the theory that his start as DH two nights ago is more indicative of how he would perform tonight than his season's worth of work including those numerous games in which he started? Um... yeah... that's logical.

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