Beerleaguer for breakfast: Writing, links and Seanez

Getting up to speed on the Phillies, with Game 1 of the NLCS looming.

Man, writing about the playoffs is hard. Every moment is a “defining” moment and must be treated like a faberge egg. It’s a tough task for tired hands, when it’s Oct. 8 and you feel like you’ve pitched 235 innings, like Cole Hamels. Why didn’t I pace myself properly? Why did I burn myself out on R.J. Swindle and other matters? I’ll never criticize a player when he doesn't run out a popup in June ever again.

The lack of credentials has never hindered Beerleaguer more. It’s a struggle to be heard. The Phillies are in the Big Time, and the topic is being attacked from all angles. It would be nice to have one, even a bad one. On Saturday, Frank Fitzpatrick drew parallels between the team’s success and the tanking economy. You could spend an entire morning previewing the NLCS from the Philadelphia side of things, then fill your afternoon with the West Coast reports, including this one from the Press-Telegram, located somewhere out West, focusing on former Dodger property Shane Victorino. Just when I thought this was a unique angle, I saw basically the same exact piece in the Inquirer. Less is more. More is not more. I don't recognize half of the bylines, even in the local papers.

When all else fails, turn to the always reliable notebook reports, which is where I suspect many Beerleaguers go to first. In today’s notebook, Rudy Seanez is reportedly being considered to replace J.A. Happ on the NLCS roster. Happ didn’t pitch in the NLDS, and there was a point during their Game 3 loss when the Phils really could have used a situational righty like Seanez. The reason for keeping Happ on the 25-man roster was in case Brett Myers imploded. Myers looked fine, and the longer that Happ, who’s miscast as a reliever, goes without pitching, the less likely Charlie Manuel is to use him, let alone in a championship series. Seanez, the grizzled vet, has been used infrequently, but he’s been through the wars. I can sympathize with that.

Comments

[Andy]

Don't fret about unique angles. Having been "through the war" gives your voice a much more authentic value than all these new guys (who are only talking about the Phillies because their team is now lurking in archived newspaper reports), and even more value than the local news reporters who file, at most, once a day. You've been the starter, middle reliever and closer for most of the year.

[Deutsche Phan]

JW- The "woe is me" angle is a nice unique approach! (kidding)

Personally, I've enjoyed the lull between series as an opportunity to go back and read the threads where the Santana signing was announced. I know we're far beyond having to mention that other team in the NL East, but I can't help but continue to bask in it.

[Bubba]

JW- Look for an adrenaline rush tomorrow a little after 8PM.You'll be fine then.

[Greg S.]

J., you're screwed now. All the wannabees journalists are going to be giving you advice. :)

[Bubba]

While I think Happ would benefit from NLCS experience, I don't think Charley is likely to use him anyway. So Seanez back into the pen sounds like the way to go.

Go Phils. Win game 1 tomorrow.

[king myno]

At this point, there's not much to be said beyond the aforementioned Happ-for-Seanez playoff roster blockbuster. We can sometimes stop Manny, Victorino was a Dodger, Utley was drafted by the Dodgers, the pitching has been good so Dubee is good, etc., etc. It's just a countdown to 8 PM tomorrow, and I'm perfectly happy with a day of silence and reflection. I loved the Eagles in 2004, Sixers in 2001, and Flyers in 99-2000 and 03-04, but I've never been this excited for a playoff series. I have no idea how fans of a NLCS baseball team are supposed to act; I hope they're supposed to pinch themselves and freak out consistently.

[Lake Fred]

Seanez was pretty worn out and ineffective by the end of the season. I don't see him in the Phillies plans next year. Happ has had late season success and represents the future. Having Happ on the roster will pay longer dividends that pitching a washed up Seanez. The only value Seanez has is that he was a Dodger last year and may be more valuable about what he knows about the Dodgers than Happ.

[mike cunningham]

I try not to read this New York centric hack from MSNBC, but this F**king article sent me through the roof.

I can't wait to send this guy a turd sandwich, trademark Sports Guy, to this hack.

[Squonk1964]

PhilliesNation.com just posted their view of the Dodgers starting four. I was waiting for that because I figured Malcolm would have a good write up, which he does, and I was waiting until Wednesday before I started worrying about the Dodgers.

In short, I made the case that the Dodgers staff is drastically overrated, especially away from Dodgers Stadium, and as a result, I don't believe a thing I've heard from those "talking heads on TV."

[GM-Carson]

From a Jayson Start article-
"The Marlins have been around for 16 seasons. They've won six postseason series. The Phillies have been in existence for slightly longer than that -- like 110 years longer. But they've won only five postseason series. In the history of the franchise."

Wow, that's bad!

[mike cunningham]

The idea of adding another right hander to the pen is a good idea. But if we're in a position, where "Boy we really could use Rudy Seanez, right now" that's a place I really don't want to be.

[Tony D]

FWIW current Dodger players are 2 for 22 lifetime vs Seanez. (Kent single, Nomar HR)

[GM-Carson]

I'm on information overload right now in terms of stuff to read about the NLCS. That's why over on WSBGM's we keep it light-hearted sometimes as a way to deviate from all the in-your-face statistical analysis (not that we don't offer that too sometimes). Jason you're doing a great job as-per-usual, the leader of Phillies blogs.

[MG]

Seanez has more value at this point if you think Myers can give the Phils two decent starts in this series. Only way you keep Happ on this roster for the NLCS is if you think Myers is likely to flame out again in Game 2 or a potential Game 5.

[Squonk1964]

GM-Carson: I hate articles like that. The modern Phillies really didn't start until the Ruly Carpenter took over from his dad. While Ruly's dad was a decent owner, giving us the Whiz Kids, a '64 contender, and a farm system that gave us a great run from the mid-70s to mid-80s, nothing good really came before him.

Who owned the Phillies have before then? Two owners banned from baseball for associating with Gamblers? Owners who sold talent to stay out of bankruptcy? That isn't the team I grew up with.

Of course, my dad is probably rolling over in his grave right now. And bickering about how the wrong team left for Kansas City in 1955.

[Lake Fred]

Mike, I used your link to read the MSNBC article. It wasn't that bad. When he described the Phillies great lineup and good pitching statistics, I got psyched up and started believing the Dodgers don't hold a candle to the Phillies. The laundry list of Phillies futility over 125 years is all true. Even our 1980 WS title doesn't get any respect because it wasn't against a "name" team, but instead the KC Royals, a brand name synonymous with "loser".

[mike cunningham]

@GM -- Yes it seems bad, but remember, the marlins won their post season series in the Wild Card era. And they won those series in just 2 years.

In 1915 and 1950, you only had ONE possible series. In 6 out of the next 7 series there was only a possibility of playing in 2 series.

It's really about more about their success in two playoff years, rather than any long term success in the playoffs.

In comparison, the Dodgers who we know have had some success in the post season, in their first 13 playoff appearances post 1903, won only 4 post season series. That sounds terrible right? But those 4 post season series equals 4 World Championships. Sounds better now doesn't it?

Marlins won 6 series to win 2 World Championships. Dodgers won 4 series to win 4 World Championships and made the playoffs 9 other years. Marlins made the playoffs zero other years.

[Lake Fred]

I think you can sum up all this Dodger hype in one word: Manny. The media is all hopped up over Manny. I think it should be called Manny Mania. Take Manny off the roster and what do you have? A mediocre team. With Manny, what do you have? A mediocre team with Manny Ramirez loafing in the outfield. Come on, the guy's overated. I'd like to see a comparison of his stats with the Dodgers and Howard's from that same day forward. I bet Howard's numbers are just as good.

[mike cunningham]

@Lake Fred - I had a problem with the article, because he was using the 125 years of futilty to disrespect the current team, as if Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley lost the 1915 World Series. F him and his stupid hat. :)

This guy always irks me... personal hatred for the guy. sorry. :)

[Greg S]

More national media with man-luv for the Dodgers.

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/21185297/

Matching up position by position they pick:

- a slumping Ethier over Werth
- past his prime Lowe over Hamels
- Dodgers bench over Phillies Bench
- Dodgers bullpen over Phillies bullpen
- call it even between a slumping Kemp and
Victorino

Ri-DICK-ulous!

[stjoehawk]

"I'd like to see a comparison of his stats with the Dodgers and Howard's from that same day forward. I bet Howard's numbers are just as good."

Because you asked... Manny's first game on the Dodgers was on August 1st. So from 8/1 through the end of the year:

Manny:
53 G
.396/.489/.743

Howard:
54 G
.276/.370/.638

Howard had 1 more home run, Manny had 2 more RBI. And that doesn't take into account that Howard played home games in a hitters park while Manny played in a pitchers park.

[Josh]

Am I the only one who thinks there's a not-insignificant chance that Myers can't give us two quality starts in this series? He's pitching on a knife's edge over the past month. If Corey Hart doesn't swing at pitch one like an idiot in Game 2, does Myers get the confidence together to go 7 strong innings? Or does he fall apart like his last regular-season start against the Braves?

[Ribbies]

I agree with Josh, I like the idea of a Happ security blanket in case Myers craps the bed. (I might be mixing my metaphors here.)

[Bubba]

Mike C-

It's not exactly a new thing for Philadelphia to get trashed by national sports writers. I think the landmark consideration of this article is his failure to mention Santa Claus.

[KidCarnivore]

FWIW, Buster Olney is on ESPN right now claiming that the Phils are going to be looking "to rough up Manny" by throwing at him to rattle him...if that doesn't work, he says they'll just pitch around him because they're not afraid of Eithier or Loney...sounds like a solid strategy to me.

[Bonehead]

Josh - You ask a question that I, too, have been asking myself over the last couple of months.

Brett, without a doubt, has pitched better post-demotion compared to pre-demotion. But not THAT much better. (I am not talking about stats, I am only talking about observation of the quality of his pitches.)

Each start, he seems to teeter on the edge. Pre-demotion, he would make one bad pitch, or get one bad break, and fall over the edge. Post-demotion, more often than not he has been making one good pitch, or getting one good break, and getting out of jams.

Lets hope that we continue to get the post-demotion Brett. But I can't help but continuously worry that we are always only one pitch away from pre-demotion Brett.

[MG]

Nothng more foolish than "roughing up" Manny. Absolutely no need to do this.

Wish I had the Dodgers series on Tivo from Sept. because that blue print against Manny was actually what the Phils should do. Let the likes of Ethier, Loney, Kemp, and the other young Dodgers talent beat the Phils instead.

[Brian G]

Of all the things to get upset about, media favoritism of the Dodgers over the Phillies seems like a really silly one. It's not like the baseball writers' association is gonna have a vote to decide who goes to the World Series. No matter what anyone says the Phillies will be hosting the Dodgers tomorrow night in Game 1 of the NLCS, and whichever team wins 4 games first will move on. Be happy about that.

[Bubba]

One thing to consider is that we have an off day after Myers first start. So if we use up the pen at least there is a recovery day

[kbless]

Does anyone else see how it could be potentially unfair to have three home games in a row, smack in the heart of the series? Every time I see the series format like that, I think about how much momentum can be shifted by winning games 3, 4, and 5 at home. Even if the Phils grab the first two, they'd better hope they can steal one in LA. I do not want them coming back east having lost three games in a row. I think for a 7 game series, the 2-2-1-1-1 format is a much fairer way to split the series than 2-3-2.

[bay_area_phan]

I think Happ should be the guy. It's not like Myers is the only guy on our staff who is capable of having a horrible, short outing. Blanton throws up one of those outings about once every 3 or 4 starts & Moyer lasted just 4 innings his last time out. This is the playoffs. Cholly can't be leaving his starter in to allow 6 runs in 2 innings, the way he likes to do during the regular season. That means we need to have a backup plan, and Happ is that plan.

I favored Happ over Seanez in the Brewers series, for the very reasons just stated. Those reasons apply with even more force in a 7-game series since, with more games, there comes a greater probability of the dreaded implosion by a starting pitcher.

[dwr]

Why are so many people trashing Myers' ability to make pitches? Everyone seems to be saying that he's just throwing meatballs up there and he got lucky against the Brewers because they missed all of the 'mistakes' that he served up. His success after the minor league trip belies such an assessment.

Perhaps his stuff isn't as good as it used to be (velocity), but maybe that demotion led to him understanding how to actually PITCH--you know, keep a hitter off balance and have them getting themself out. It's the trait that everybody worships Jamie Moyer for having, but we all brush aside the possibility that Myers is figuring that out because he's such a 'headcase'.

I live out of market so I don't get to see many of his starts on TV, but his second-half success suggests that he's a better pitcher, rather than he's just been getting lucky because hitters are missing his pitches. He had those two bad starts at the end, but he said they figured out a mechanical problem and he seemed to fix it.

All that being said, I am still fearful of his starts because we will always have the chance of "Bad Brett" showing up in a big game.

[dwr]

kbless: I'd rather have it the way it is instead of the teams traveling across the country up to 4 times during the series. The Phils don't seem to play very well when they have to travel a lot.

[Squonk1964]

Keeping Myers at home is a great choice. His home/away splits are pretty ugly: 3.21 ERA with a 0.232 BA at home, but 6.21/0.301 away. (Sorry, folks, stats for season splits aren't easily available. At least not to me.) It minimizes the possibility of an ugly Myers start.

[bay_area_phan]

kbess: I see your point, but I've always looked at it the other way around. If the Phillies can win the first 2 at home, all they have to do is win 1 of 3 in L.A., and they'll have 2 chances to close it out at home.

Bottom line is that a 2-2-1-1-1 format is probably a better one, but it wouldn't be very practical when the two teams involved play on opposite ends of the country. So instead we get 2-3-2. And baseball isn't like basketball or football, where there's a huge homefield advantage. There's a definite advantage, but it's not like it's a huge uphill battle to win a game or two in the other team's park.

[Bubba]

Is it an option to carry both Happ & Seanez on the roster?
Or are we limited to replacing a pitcher with a pitcher / position player with a position player for the playoffs.

Not that I think Charley will So off the roster, but just asking.

[Brian G]

Bubba: Yes, Taguchi could be replaced with Seanez. But yeah, don't see Charlie going that route, and I don't think he should either. It's only mid-series that you have to replace an injured guy with someone from the same position.

[BENTZ]

Basketball uses the 2-2-1-1-1 format because the conferences are divided into the East and West, so travel is already kind of minimized (unless of course you get Minnesota vs. Los Angeles, but that's still better than Philly vs. LA in terms of distance). In the finals, when it is East vs. West, they switch to 2-3-2. Hockey uses the 2-2-1-1-1 all the way through including the finals. So you do get some cross-country trips multiple times, which has happened recently (see Carolina vs. Edmonton and Tampa Bay vs. Calgary). But there are more "eastern" teams in the West in hockey (Chicago, Detroit, Nashville, Columbus) so you can also end up with a Detroit-Pittsburgh final like last year and the travel isn't as much.

[MPN]

Myers pitched against the Dodgers twice this year. 1-1, 14 IP, 14H, 5BB, 1HR, 16K, 3R, 3ER, 20GB, 9FB. I think Brett will be fine, even if he was pitching in LA.

[BENTZ]

Basically my point is that baseball (or football, which is irrelevant to this discussion) is divided into two conferences NOT by geography unlike basketball and hockey which are.

[Lake Fred]

St. Joe, thanks for the Manny stats. Homers and ribbies about the same. Howard's K's kill his average.

I think Blanton and Myers have become buddies. I think they play off of each others success. They had TV shots last game showing Myers and Blanton taking strategy between innings. I think that's good for both of them. I feel that the friendly competition between the two will keep both better focused. The results should be good for us.

[king myno]

I think it's interesting that one the premier articles in the Philly papers today is "These Phillies could give a f@ck about the past!" and the national media, of course, is running with "The past is prologue." Figures.

[Brian G]

LF: I saw that. From the way it looked (myers swinging his arms) it appeared that Myers was giving Blanton hitting advice, which just confirms that Myers is an arrogant fool.

[Lake Fred]

We would all be better people if we did not have a "past". "Old girfriends, honey? No. I have no past." The Phillies have no past. They only have present and future. Go Phillies!

[doubleh]

Ah, the media picking other teams over Philly? Like this is a new phenomenon...

Remember last year the Washington Capitals were going to kick the Flyers butts according to just about everyone outside of Philly--even though the Flyers played in a tougher division and had 7 20+ goal scorers and were an overall better team--how did that work out?

I like that they are all knob slobbing the Dodgers; takes the pressure off of the Phils. Maybe the Dodgers will believe their own hype and come in all overconfident and stuff.

And if the Phils fail, well, they're just "losers" anyway, right?

[MPN]

Lake Fred: yes, these are our Don Draper Phillies.

[Bob]

Hopefully the Phils are quietly taking a little extra motivation from the media hype over the Dodgers. They sometimes seem to play better in the underdog role.

Nothing would please me more than to have the TV guys fawning over "bleeding Dodger blue", how Manny transformed the team, blah, blah, blah and have the Dodgers run into a Phils buzzsaw. Don't laugh, it could happen.

[RT]

That's something I never thought I'd read anywhere. "Phillies need another right hander in the pen."

[Jack]

I argued for keeping Seanez over Happ last series, mostly because I thought Happ served no purpose. Even if Moyer or Myers blew up (and Moyer was pulled after 4 innings), it would be stupid to use Happ because the Brewers hit lefties very well. Of course, they didn't use Happ, and it may have been nice to have Seanez available in that game.

While the Dodgers don't have as drastic a lefty-righty split as the Brewers did, they still hit lefty pitching better than righties. Also, as someone pointed out, if Myers does get taken out early in Game 2, we have an off day to give rest to the pen, so you don't necessarily need a designated long man to eat those innings.

I would again argue for Seanez over Happ, although I think the argument for Happ is better in this series, because of the less drastic splits, and the fact that your chances of needing/using a long-man obviously increases in a 7 game series over a 5 game series.

[doubleh]

Funny comments from another message board:

On the ESPN poll on the NLCS--

Q1: Who will win the NLCS? 57-43 Dodgers.
Q2: Who has the better starting rotation: Even, 50-50.
Q3: Who has the better bullpen: Phillies, 58-42.
Q4: Who has the better top of the lineup: Phillies, 65-35.

So, basically, the vox populi thinks the Phils are the overall better team but the Dodgers will still win. Guess it's those intangibles...or Manny and Torre.