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Thursday, September 04, 2008

Comments

PhillR - I'm not sure why your post re: the Mets was panned just now. It's dead on. The Phils may win 92 games this year and not make the playoffs.

Alright, I'll drop the Hamels thing. Like I said, I'm damn glad we have him, and I'm not trying to bad mouth him. I was just irked he lifted himself from the game. I've always been very supportive of Cole, but I make one comment and now all of sudden everyone thinks I'm against him...well, I'm not. So, I'm dropping. Cole has been spectacular and we're lucky to have him on this staff. Suffice everyone?


Brio- As far as the pitcher or yore and the amount of innings they threw, you are correct, but players and owners want longetivity and if you look at so many of the top pitchers of the 50's-60's, you will find that their career expectancy was much shorter. Koufax and Drysdale were finished around age 30-31, most top pitchers hit their decline in their early 30's and even a most conditioned athlete like Bob Gibson was pretty much done by age 37.

Carson- by some people's standards, criticizing Cole could make you a Mets fan. Tread lightly. Hehe.

Brian G -- I agree this is like a playoff series. The Mets 10-5 record against the phils this year i feel is still somewhat hollow what with the phils crazy comebacks and all the tight games the two teams have played that could have gone either way. A sweep of the phils would completely deflate the mets right now, and with myers as hot as he is, moyers usual dominance of us, and hamels goin on sunday it is possible. And pedro isnt even a sure thing to start. Fortunately i know im enjoying baseball when i am stressed out on an off day when my team is still in first place.

Carson, you forget the single biggest deficiency that Cole Hamels brings to the table - HE DOESN'T PICK UP HIS YARD CLIPPINGS!!! How can we possibly give him a "pass" for this?

Just wanted to make this clearer:

Age 21

Murphy (NCAA): .398/.470/.534 -- .38 SO/BB
Golson (A+): .285/.322/.450 -- 5.90 SO/BB
Golson (AA): .242/.255/.359 -- 24.5 SO/BB

Age 22

Murphy (AA): .300/.370/.475 -- 1.15 SO/BB
Golson (repeating AA): .288/.335/.443 -- 4.22 SO/BB

Too late Carson, you just made the list!

Sophist -- Are you a paid subscriber to baseballreference.com? How do you get these stats so quickly?

Updated, PECOTA-adjusted post-season odds from BP.com:

Mets

Mets -- Avg W: 91.7 -- 85% chance of East -- 1.4% chance of WC
Phils -- Avg W: 87.8 -- 14% chance of East -- 3.3% chance of WC
Brewers -- Avg W: 93.3 -- 76.6% chance of WC

That's 20% lower than yesterday for the Phils.

I'm a Met fan - Yeah, but that's not how I got those stats. You can get those for free and quickly form baseballcube.com.

I have been trying to figure out how they calculate those odds. I still don't think I get it.

ESPN's odds are slightly lower for the Mets and had less change based on last night. Though I have no insight into its differences at all.


PhillR- I would have to disagree that the Phils "dont have the pitching". If anybody told me that the Phillies would be 4th in the NL in runs allowed I would have presumed they would run away with the division, even with an expected offensive drop-off from 2007. Its pretty obvious the problem is that the offense have collectively fell off the shelf starting on June 19th.

I was referring to starting pitching, which is 7th in ERA and 8th in BAA. Thats not bad, but it won't get a team to 95 games. 90-92, sure.

PhillR - BP.com has other predictions as well. The most favorable for the Phils is the ELO-adjusted one: 16% chance of title, 6% at WC.

These will change wildly by Monday, you'd think.

Here's what BP.com says:

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted
Standings Report.


Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3
from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the
rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning
percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal
distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used
for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4%
home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the
visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is
determined by the log5 method*.

*http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm

Carson: That's for the keeper of the list to know. :-)

MPN- you don't happen to be that crazy dude from Billy Madison, do you?

MPN- you're not that crazy dude from Billy Madison are you?

Nope, that guy was a softy... Although he does get points for shooting the annoying dude from West Wing....

don't dis west wing. thats just not right.


PhillR- Thanks for the clarification. FWIW the Phillies rank #3 in QS in NL, 1 behind the Brewers. I am factoring in overall pitching and I cant complain with #3 NL in runs allowed. As far as the 8th inning losses, perhaps if this once vaunted offense would have picked the team up more, the Phillies wouldnt contstantly be in tight situations by the 8th. Look at last night: 2 of the 7 runs were in garbage time, 4 of the 5 runs were via long ball. It just seems that actaull "rallies" are too few and far in between.

"If the Mets play at a .672 winning percentage for three months, we didn't blow a thing."

Ok, I'll buy that. But I don't think that's the issue. The issue is that this is shaping up to be the 6th straight season in which this team has won between 85 and 89 games, and the 5th time in the last 6 that it has won between 85 and 88. If we've learned anything during this period, it's that, unless you play in a horrible division 86 to 88 wins is not enough to get you into the playoffs. 89 might be enough. 92 or 93? That would be enough in the vast majority of seasons.

If the Phillies lose out, it won't be because they blew it. It will be because, despite 6 years of trying, the front office has been completely unable to provide even the marginal upgrade that it would take to turn us into a 92 or 93-win team. Gillick and ownership share responsibility for this failure. Gillick, obviously, has made just enough disastrously bad moves (Eaton, Garcia, Gordon, Jenkins) to keep the team running in place.

But, at the same time, the Phillies are not the only team which has made some terrible financial moves. The Mets are paying $8M to Moises Alou & $11M to Pedro. The Angels are paying $9.5M to the injured Kelvim Escobar and the terrible Gary Matthews, Jr. The WhiteSox are paying $12M to Paul Konerko and $5M to Joe Crede. But, because these teams all have significantly higher payrolls than the Phillies, they possess much greater ability to move past their mistakes and find replacements. Because the Phillies are unwililng to spend more than their allotted $95M, plus maybe $5M (at most) on in-season acquisitions, they have little margin for error when it comes to personnel decisions. And when they do make an error, they're stuck with it for the entire life of the contract. Hence, they went into the 2008 season with Tom Gordon as the setup man & Adam Eaton as the fifth starter. Hence, we have had to endure a full season of Geoff Jenkins in RF & So Taguchi on the bench. And, hence, instead of targeting a top-flight (but expensive) pitcher like Burnett, we target a cheap but crappy starter like Blanton.

Sorry but I can't really buy the payroll argument anymore. The Angels payroll isn't that much larger then the Phillies. Teams with roughly equivalent or lower payroll: Cardinals, Brewers, Diamonbacks, Rays, Twins, Blue Jays. Too many of the games top teams do so without the same or far less.

Being wise with what you have seems to be the key. Not signing a Feliz or trading for Blanton in the first place. Putting resources into player development, thats the key.

Was there an actual reason given why Victorino didn't play yesterday? It seems odd to me that it was soley because he was tired, considering they are in a tight pennant race, there are 20 games left, they have an off day the next day and he had a good game the night before.

Just something I noticed at the game Tuesday. In his last at-bat (8th or 9th inning, score was 4 - 0), he grounded out to 2B. He started jogging about half-way down the line, the infielder double-clutched and he was still only out by a step even though he never started running hard again. I immediately thought he would have been safe if he actually ran. It seemed more relevant yesterday when I saw he wasn't playing. He's been possibly your best offensive player over the past two months. Seems like an odd time to sit him just because he's tired, especially considering who replaced him.

"If the Mets play at a .672 winning percentage for three months, we didn't blow a thing."


If the Phillies play at a .500 winning percentage for the last three months than they did blow it.

Anybody notice Delgado's fist pump whenever there's a big play at first for the Mets?

I f*cking hate that guy

Wish Willie Randolph was still coaching so he and the Mets would still be playing like sh*t.

BAP - You certainly have a point about payroll, but some of the division winners have also rolled the dice and down well while the Phils have not.

Jenkins 2007: .255/.319/.471 -- 101 OPS+
Jenkins 2008: .246/.304/.394 -- 78 OPS+

Tatis 2007: N/A
Tatis 2008: .291/.360/.482 -- 122 OPS+

De Rosa 2007: .293/.371/.420 -- 102 OPS+
De Rosa 2008: .291/.383/.488 -- 124 OPS+

So Taguchi 2007: .290/.350/.368 -- 88 OPS+
So Taguchi 2008: .198/.266/.256 -- 36 OPS+

Mike Fontenot 2007: .278/.336/.402 -- 87 OPS+
Mike Fontenot 2008: .295/.381/.527 -- 132 OPS+

Ryan Theriot 2007: .266/.326/.346 -- 72 OPS+
Ryan Theriot 2008: .311/.390/.365 -- 97 OPS+

Of course, there's Rollins last year. I'm not trying to make an argument that baseball's unfair -- and guys like Jenkins, Feliz, and Taguchi are different players than Theriot and Fontenot (much older) -- but there is a sense in which everything comes together just right for some teams.

@Wally Ritchie-
perhaps Cholly wanted to pull his typical lefty/righty matchups against a left-handed pitcher like Odalis Perez. Perusing over his roster, there was an R next to "batting" for Werth, Burrell, and Bruntlett so they started, and it's possible he didn't know what the "S" stood for that was next to Victorino's name...

Meanwhile, because of his recent play, Rollins is now batting .273/.340/.439 -- 99 OPS+. I think he may hit his PECOTA number after all (about 10-15 points higher BA and 30-50 higher SLG.)

Phillies Suck

Phillies Suck Lets go Mets

you guys are finished

Marc H,

I grew up on the 60's and 70's Phillies and I hear you loud and clear. Having the Utley, Howard, Hamels, Rollins, Burrell nucleus to me seems like catching lightning in a bottle and it is frustrating to see what seems like a golden opportunity seemingly being wasted.

Particularly, when the team fought so hard in 2006 after the Abreu salary dump to regain their footing, and then last summer to take that next step by winning the Division.

To me, the team proved its heart over that time period, and that was the time for management to step up and
help them get the rest of the way. And instead the team got "little splashes", or whatever the heck it was.

But, don't write em off yet. It is an uphill battle, but these guys have been in them before. If the pieces can click together for the next month, this can still be a tough, tough team for anyone to deal with. I'm hanging in.

most losing franchise in the history of professional sports

bob give it up

phillies suck

2008 wont be much different for you guys...0 wins in the playoffs only this year you wont be in it to embarrass yourselves.

LETS GO METS!!!!! Is this a mets or Phillies blog cause there seem to be more Mets fans here?

And J.C Romero is a douchebag!

Why don't you loser Mets fans go back to ogling underage t-shirt models over on Metsgeek, or whatever it is you do over there?

Mark H basically told us the real story here, and it is more basic than batting averages and ERAs. As long as the Phillies ownership is OK with merely being competitive (having no real hunger to win), we'll continue to tread water and waste the talented nucleus we have on the field. Think of that the next time you watch Mr. Montgomery tap dance his way through another soft interview with the local media. The owners he fronts and protects are your real "enemy," not the NY Mutts or their obnoxious, cretinesque fans.

If we can take 2 of 3 at Shea, we'll just be "merely dead," and not "most sincerely dead." I've been a Phillies fan since my late Uncle took me to 21st & Lehigh in 1957 to see the Phils and Giants. Lots of heartbreak, but once in awhile a shining moment to remember. Are we done? Maybe. But then, perhaps this 2008 finish will be one of those shining moments.

The Brewers won't sign both Sabathia and Sheets...The Phils need to sign one of those guys and replace Kendrick in the off season..take some heat off Hamels.

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EST. 2005

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